View Full Version : Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012



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venture
06-01-2012, 09:43 AM
Welcome to June, typically the slowing down portion of the severe weather season. However, as we've seen this season has been a bit unusual with a busy April, slow May outside of the very beginning and very end, and the prospects for a busy June. Long range outlooks call for a warmer than normal and drier than normal summer, but we'll see. June also marks the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season even though we've already had 2 named storms. Oklahoma typically can experience the effects from landfalling systems as they move up from the Gulf.

This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Every now and then you'll see a reference for "the chat room" in the discussion. This is a live chat that will be active mainly during severe weather events in Oklahoma. To reach the chat room follow the link to: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/

Other Threads to Checkout
Severe Weather Trends: http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29677
Oklahoma 2012 Tornado Tracking List: http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29507


Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.phpOklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Severe Weather Information

Current Watches (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/validmd.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)Tornado OutlookWind OutlookHail Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif)

Day 2 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)Day 2 Probabilistic OutlookDay 3 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)Day 3 Probabilistic Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif)

Days 4 through 8 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

D (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)ay 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day4prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day5prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day6prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day7prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day8prob.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports


Today (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif)Yesterday (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*
Day 1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)Day 2 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)Days 3 to 8 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/imgs/day38otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)



References



COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
NWS Norman Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/


Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

venture
06-01-2012, 09:43 AM
State Radar ImagesWSR-88D Twin Lakes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)Base Velocity (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=tlx&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0V/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=tlx&loop=yes)WSR-88D Frederick (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)Base Velocity (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=FDR&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0V/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=FDR&loop=yes)WSR-88D Vance AFB (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=vnx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)Base Velocity (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=VNX&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0V/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=VNX&loop=yes)Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars
Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date.Phased Array Radar (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml) (Next Generation Test Bed)CASA Radar Deployment (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml) - SW Oklahomahttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/NWRT/w2_NWRT_Reflectivity_00.50.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/casart_CASA_MergedReflectivityComposite.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png)http ://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Compositehttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png)

venture
06-01-2012, 09:43 AM
State Satellite Images


Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)

Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)
Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)

venture
06-01-2012, 04:30 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0335_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF RATON NEW MEXICO TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332...WW 333...WW 334...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONT/WIND SHIFT SPREADING SEWD FROM CO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SERN CO AND NERN NM
AND TRACK SEWD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONT BACKED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD FUEL THE DEVELOPING
TSTMS. MID LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORTING STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN NONDESCRIPT. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE REGION
LIES BENEATH THE SWRN FLANK OF STRONGER NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH...ATOP LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 50KT. THUS KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC REGIME WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION. PRIMARY SEVERE
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS A HAIL FEW REPORTS AOA 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG WIND
SHIFT/OUTFLOW SITUATED FROM WRN OK INTO SWRN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LACK OF GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS
SHOULD KEEP TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33030.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (40%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (60%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

venture
06-01-2012, 04:34 PM
Slight Risk for tomorrow has been extended roughly to just west of I-35 mainly south of I-40 except for the far western counties north of I-40.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN/SWRN OK...NWRN TX AND
TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS AND SERN CO...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC AND GREENLAND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF A GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE SWD EXTENDING TROUGH
OVER THE ERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD THROUGH
THE ERN DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SUN. FARTHER W...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATE DAY 1 WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.

...SWRN/WRN OK...NWRN TX AND TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS/SERN CO...
MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SRN OK EXTENDING WWD TO A
TRIPLE POINT ATTENDANT DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM SWRN OK/ADJACENT
SERN TX PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A SYNOPTIC LOW LOCATED ALONG
THE NM/TX BORDER. THE WARM FRONT MAY INITIALLY BE IDENTIFIED AS A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF ONGOING TSTMS
OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO OK AT THE START OF DAY 2. DESPITE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN TO ALONG AND S
OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8.5 C
PER KM/ SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOISTENING/SURFACE HEATING WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE 2000-3000 J
PER KG/.

DESPITE NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AIDING
IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKER FORCING
ALOFT WITH SWD EXTENT...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO SWRN OK/NWRN
TX SUGGESTS INHIBITION SHOULD BE REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY FOR AFTERNOON
TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT AND EWD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME VERY
LARGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/SWRN OK WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATEST...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

venture
06-01-2012, 06:14 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1015.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012303Z - 020100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW
335 INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FARTHER EAST
ACROSS WRN AND SWRN OK WHERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POST A MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW 335 INTO
PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/WRN NORTH TX WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE SUPERCELL
STORMS WERE CURRENTLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS/ROTATING STORMS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES MUCH WEAKER
AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKEN.

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS ACROSS THE ERN
OK/TX PANHANDLES. LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE LESS FAVORABLE
ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL OK AS CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LED
TO COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BAROCLINIC ZONE/THERMAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR WRN INTO SWRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW...STORMS MAY
LATCH ON TO THIS BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND POSE A HAIL AND STRONG WIND THREAT. THEREFORE...A NEW WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF 335 IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN
AERIAL EXTENSION OF WW 335 MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WFO OUN/S CWA AS WELL TO COVER THE POTENTIAL THREAT.

..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/01/2012


ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

venture
06-02-2012, 11:20 PM
New watch does include the Western Metro area.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0343_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF ALVA
OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...

DISCUSSION...TSTM COMPLEX IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE
GAINING ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH...AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AN MCV.
THESE OBSERVATIONS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOIST/STRONG SSELY LOW
LVL FLOW PER VWP DATA...AND WEAK UPR IMPULSE IN MODERATE WNWLY MID
LVL FLOW...TOGETHER SUGGEST THE RISK FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND
PERHAPS SVR HAIL AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES MAINLY E TO ESE
THROUGH EARLY SUN.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (<5%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (<5%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (50%)

venture
06-02-2012, 11:31 PM
HRRR has storms into Central OK by 3AM in a bow formation. So could see some good winds here if things hold together. Looks like it'll stick around until 10AM or so even though the main complex will be in AR/MO.

venture
06-02-2012, 11:56 PM
Slight risk has been issued for Oklahoma north of I-40.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID TO LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
OVER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND FROM VA NWWD INTO OH. FARTHER N NEAR
THE UPPER LOW CENTER...RELATIVELY SMALL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FROM
PA INTO THE DELMARVA...AND COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION FROM PA/ERN OH SEWD ACROSS MD AND NRN VA.

TO THE W...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 C. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIST ACROSS KS EARLY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO SOME
ONGOING CONVECTION...AND THIS FEATURE MAY PERSIST SEWD INTO MO
DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN OVER WRN KS INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NEAR THE OK BORDER...WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG
A DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH WITH WIND SHIFT. MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
ALONG WITH HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON...FROM OK INTO NEB.

...KS...OK...NEB...MO...WRN IA...
EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN KS...NERN OK...AND
MAYBE SWRN MO/NWRN AR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING.
WITH AT LEAST MID 60S F DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM...AND SWLY 850 MB
FLOW...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER..IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED.

LATER IN THE DAY...THE DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH WILL DESTABILIZE FROM NWRN
TX INTO NEB. CIN WILL ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SFC CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
MARGINAL...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...PRODUCING A
SMALL BUT FAVORABLY SHAPED HODOGRAPH FOR SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY FURTHER AUGMENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER ERN KS/NERN OK AND WRN MO WHERE SFC T/TD
SPREADS WILL BE LOWER AND EFFECTIVE SRH MIGHT BE
MAXIMIZED...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION.

OTHER EARLY CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OVER SD...SHIFTING SEWD WITH
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WITHIN THE THETA-E AXIS. PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS HERE AS WELL WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

STORMS OVER KS/OK/MO MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
ERN OK...MO...AND NRN AR.

venture
06-03-2012, 02:31 AM
Some decent wind with these, not much else.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 330 AM CDT


* AT 223 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CASHION TO VERDEN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...NORMAN...EDMOND...MIDWEST CITY...MOORE...
DEL CITY...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...
CHOCTAW...NEWCASTLE...NOBLE...TUTTLE...NICHOLS HILLS...SPENCER...
PIEDMONT...
BLANCHARD AND JONES.


THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 148.
INTERSTATE 240 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16.
INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 131 AND 168.
INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 83 AND 150.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

venture
06-03-2012, 12:03 PM
Severe Risk Increasing Today...

Slight risk now covers nearly all of Oklahoma. Tornado risk increase to 5% over Central OK. 30% wind risk added over Central & Western OK. Also a 30% hatched area for significant hail now covers Central and Western OK.

...SRN PLAINS...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS WAS DISSIPATING WHILE SPREADING INTO MO/AR
LATE THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THERE IS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN CO/NERN NM THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ESEWD TOWARD WRN OK BY
04/00Z. CONSIDERABLE LEFT-OVER MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS NOTED
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK.
HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH A SUBSTANTIAL
EML HAS OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BREACHED ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE SRN INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDINESS ACROSS KS SUCH THAT AN MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER
NWRN OK THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED
BY SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT AN UPSCALE EVOLVING MCS AFTER DARK. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND
INCLUDE THE RISK OF SIG HAIL /2 INCHES OR GREATER/ ACROSS NWRN/CNRTL
OK WITH BOTH INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND STORM MERGERS. HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED 5 PCT TOR PROBS SWD TO BETTER REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY
POSITION OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES. LATEST THINKING IS SEVERE MCS MAY SPREAD ESEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN OK THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK AS LLJ INCREASES INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE
AFTER DARK.

venture
06-03-2012, 12:05 PM
HRRR Run Down...

Scattered/Isolated storms and showers now through 3PM.

After 3PM supercells start to develop on the western OK/TX border. These will increase in coverage over the west and then will move east.

venture
06-03-2012, 03:37 PM
CU is developing pretty quickly now out in the TX PH...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1032.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 032025Z - 032200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL PARCELS NOW APPROACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM LIPSCOMB TO DONLEY COUNTIES IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MATURATION INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE COMPLEXES ACROSS
WRN/NRN OK LATER THIS EVENING. THIS EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MIGRATING INTO THIS REGION AND
EXPECTED DIURNAL INCREASE IN LLJ THAT SHOULD FOCUS INTO CNTRL OK
AFTER DARK. INITIAL TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED WITH
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF
SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS OK IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER AND GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
REGARDLESS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH MCS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/03/201

Easy180
06-03-2012, 04:44 PM
I was hoping we could have maybe 20 days in a row with thunderstorms waking us all up...Thanks

Snowman
06-03-2012, 05:17 PM
I was hoping we could have maybe 20 days in a row with thunderstorms waking us all up...Thanks

we could use the rain, mild thunderstorms are better than nothing

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/ok_dm.png

venture
06-03-2012, 05:22 PM
we could use the rain, mild thunderstorms are better than nothing



Very true. We have broken the record for warm spring ever (http://www.kswo.com/story/18678411/oklahoma-breaks-record-for-warmest-spring) and are entering what is termed as a "flash drought". This is where things are just drying out exceptionally fast and could throw us right back into a longer term drought. The good news, chance of rain everyday for at least the next week. So that should make it more tolerable.

Storms are erupting over the panhandles right now. Waiting on the watch to go up.

venture
06-03-2012, 06:39 PM
Tornado Watch is being issued.

WW 347 TORNADO KS OK TX 032340Z - 040700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50S LBL/LIBERAL KS/ - 55NE CQB/CHANDLER OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /43S LBL - 17WNW TUL/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BEAVER BLAINE
CANADIAN CREEK CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT HARPER KAY
KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
MAJOR NOBLE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGER MILLS WOODS
WOODWARD

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0347_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL
KANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 344...WW 345...WW 346...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
INVOF WEAK W-E FRONT OVER NRN OK AND PERHAPS FAR SRN KS...AND INVOF
NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...AND
POSSIBLY BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE DRIFTING ESE FROM SW
KS. DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST...AROUND 30
KTS...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. COUPLED
QUALITY OF MOISTURE...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS LATER TNGT/EARLY MON...WITH
PREDOMINANT MOTION EXPECTED TO BE SE TO POSSIBLY SSEWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

venture
06-03-2012, 06:46 PM
I'll populate the previous post with the watch details once available. Latest HRRR run down...

Storms should begin to fire cross NW and North Central OK over the next 1-2 hours. They should quick form a broad area/line of storms from the OK/TX border to NE OK that will push South/Southeast over the body of Oklahoma. It should be at I-40 by 10PM tonight.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2012060321&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

OKCisOK4me
06-03-2012, 07:33 PM
Emily Sutton is way off in that case...stating morning storms coming in from Kansas.

Easy180
06-03-2012, 08:02 PM
I'll populate the previous post with the watch details once available. Latest HRRR run down...

Storms should begin to fire cross NW and North Central OK over the next 1-2 hours. They should quick form a broad area/line of storms from the OK/TX border to NE OK that will push South/Southeast over the body of Oklahoma. It should be at I-40 by 10PM tonight.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2012060321&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

Judging from that prediction not sure why Cleveland was left out of the watch...Not that I'm bitchin

venture
06-03-2012, 10:06 PM
Pretty much sums up what is going on. Model guidance is completely off for the last 6-8 hours.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...SERN KS...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 347...

VALID 040246Z - 040345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 347 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REPLACEMENT OF WW 347 WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING
CONSIDERED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARING TO EXIST WITH RECENT
DEVELOPING TSTM CLUSTER OVER W-CNTRL OK.

DISCUSSION...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS RECENTLY INITIATED IN W-CNTRL
OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED. WITHIN AN
ARCING BAND OF RICHER SURFACE DEW POINTS /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S/ PRESENT FROM S-CNTRL INTO W-CNTRL OK...THIS CLUSTER
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE INTERFERENCE FROM CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW WITH A DYING CLUSTER INVOF CDS ALONG WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL WLYS OVERNIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH POOR MODEL GUIDANCE
PERFORMANCE THIS EVENING...BREEDS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS CLUSTER
SHOULD ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. ONE SCENARIO IS FOR A SLOW-MOVING E/SEWD
MOVING CLUSTER WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL. FARTHER NE...PERSISTENTLY DIVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
CONTINUE TO CURTAIL MORE ROBUST TSTM COVERAGE WITH A SHRINKING
CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS SERN KS.

venture
06-03-2012, 10:26 PM
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347. WATCH NUMBER 347 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1005 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 348...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0349_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT
SILL OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347. WATCH NUMBER 347 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1005 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 348...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS FAILED TO BECOME SUSTAINED IN NW OK
EARLIER THIS EVE...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL
CONFLUENCE AND THE ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED W-E BOUNDARY. STORMS
HAVE...HOWEVER...RECENTLY FORMED IN THE REGION...MOST LIKELY ALONG
WRN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YET GROW INTO
AN MCS AS THE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER E AND TAP INCREASINGLY RICH LOW
LVL MOISTURE IN CNTRL/ERN PART OF STATE.

AREA VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT...IN CONTRAST TO STRENGTHENING
LLJ...MID/UPR LVL FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK OR FURTHER WEAKEN AS
AXIS OF UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER SW KS/NW OK CONTINUES ESEWD. WHILE
WEAKENING MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT MAY SUPPORT
LOCALLY DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31020.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (<5%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (<5%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (50%)

venture
06-03-2012, 11:40 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0350_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM UNTIL
700 AM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 348...WW 349...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE FORMED RAPIDLY IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER NE
OK...POSSIBLY RELATED TO INCREASED WAA/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. GIVEN DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY ABOVE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...AVAILABILITY OF RICH
MOISTURE...AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND DESPITE MODEST DEEP
SHEAR.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

venture
06-05-2012, 02:26 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1072.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OK AND TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051920Z - 052045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF AN MCV
WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
PLAINS. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT RESULTING FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS EXISTS AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST KAMA VWP.
THIS SETUP MAY LEAD TO ORGANIZED WESTWARD-MOVING MULTICELL STORMS
POSING A RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE A
WW.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 06/05/2012


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

venture
06-06-2012, 01:17 PM
No major severe risk today, but heavy rain and isolated severe storms are still possible. All in all this is pretty good to help keep the drought conditions in check.

SPC's Take...

...SRN PLAINS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN TX...WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
BANDS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CENTRAL OK.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FOCUSED MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WILL FOSTER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

Kaye
06-06-2012, 01:53 PM
How much rain can we anticipate here in OKC?

venture
06-06-2012, 01:59 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1085.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...N-CNTRL
TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061840Z - 062045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BRIEF/MARGINAL SVR THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A LOW/MCV IS LOCATED NNE OF CHILDRESS TX
PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHILE A DIFFUSE SFC
FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK AND FARTHER
ESE INTO NERN TX. ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
/1/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF THE DENSER ZONE OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE MCV.../2/ THE
FRONT/TROUGH...AND /3/ CONVERGENT BANDS AROUND THE SFC REFLECTION OF
THE MCV WILL REMAIN THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AMIDST THE MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK...VWP DATA FROM TWIN LAKES/FREDERICK RADARS
SUGGEST SOME MODESTLY ENHANCED 2-4-KM-AGL FLOW OVER THE ERN FRINGES
OF THE MCV -- I.E. SSWLY TO SLY AT 20-25 KT -- WHICH MAY PROMOTE
STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS. THIS WOULD BE THE RESULT OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT PROCESSES IN DOWNDRAFTS...AUGMENTED BY WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES OWING TO PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES IN MANY AREAS
PER GPS DATA. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SVR WIND THREAT MAY
EXIST...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE AREAS OF
INSOLATION ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/STRONGER DCAPE. IF A LARGE NUMBER OF STORM MERGERS OCCUR WITH
LOCAL UPSCALE GROWTH...STORM CLUSTERS COULD PROPAGATE ESEWD/SEWD
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE GIVEN MODEST ESELY/SELY INFLOW BELOW 0.5 KM
AGL. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT. ALSO OF NOTE...WITH PW VALUES BEING 125-150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE STORMS.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA...

venture
06-06-2012, 02:01 PM
How much rain can we anticipate here in OKC?

Depends on where you are. Some people will see an inch plus others only a light shower. Heaviest rain band right now is from Southern Pittsburgh county NE through Holdenville, Shawnee, Chandler, Stillwater, Enid, and Alva. Another patch from Norman through Pauls Valley. Then some severe storms just across the river in North Texas moving north. These seem to be on the same access that storms from Hobart to Arnett are forming on.

Kaye
06-06-2012, 02:14 PM
Okay. It looked to me like the storms to the south of OKC were weakening as they move north and maybe moving a bit to the east as well.

venture
06-08-2012, 02:44 AM
I figured I'll get this update done tonight since the hypemen are going already out there about Monday. So I'll jump right in...

System that has been giving us a nice break from...June...is moving away and we'll get back to typical weather. Things start to change though on Sunday with the next storm system moving out. Instability will begin to increase rapidly and much of the state will be very unstable on Sunday. However, capping should be extremely tough and storm development should be restricted to well north of Oklahoma. So Monday...

NAM only goes through Monday AM, so this is all GFS at this point for now. A pretty potent storm system will be moving into the plains. The main energy is going to be well North into ND, SD and MN. However, we'll see a part of it skirt the state as well. Moisture looks really good and a dryline appears to be moving into SW OK late in the day. Temps out there could hit 100 behind the dryline and near 90 ahead of it. Instability looks very stout with CAPE over 5000 j/kg over much of NE to South Central and parts of SW OK. CIN values will remain pretty high through Mid Afternoon in the area of highest instability will be will gradually diminish. This would allow for a more favorable environment for storms to get going. This would look like a typical high end day except for a few things.

1) GFS doesn't break out any precip west of I-35, and only isolated areas over SE and far NE OK.
2) Surface winds look pretty lousy.
3) Most of the upper air energy is well north.

There are people calling it a classic setup for strong tornadoes and such, but honestly right now I'm not buying it. Too many conditional issues present to really get amped up over it. Probably still a candidate for a slight risk, but mostly east of I-35 as of right now.

TUESDAY...
Things will remain very unstable generally along and south of I-40. Storm chances look better for the Southern Half of Oklahoma this day. Good candidate for a slight risk day.

WEDNESDAY...
Rinse repeat of Tuesday, just maybe a bit further north.

THURSDAY...
Storm chances continue, mainly east of I-35 where conditions will be best.

FRIDAY...
More instability but increasing cap, low storm chances.

That's it for now. Things could remain stormy beyond a week out, but we'll get more into that later.

venture
06-10-2012, 12:47 PM
Slight Risk today and tomorrow for portions of Oklahoma...

TODAY - North Central and NW OK
...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST INTO KS/OK...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED EML AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG CAP HAS BEEN ADVECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
MID MO VALLEY ON THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF N-CNTRL CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. AS SUCH...INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT /AND
PERHAPS PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT WILL
ERODE WEAKER CAP. SUBSEQUENT SWWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG FRONT
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF KS/OK WILL LIKELY OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND INCREASED DIABATIC WARMING WILL YIELD A
MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO 2500-3500
J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD /AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
SHEAR/ WILL LAG WARM SECTOR TO THE W. HOWEVER...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
DO SUGGEST THAT THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E.
30-40 KT/ WILL COINCIDE WITH SURFACE FRONT...THOUGH ORIENTATION OF
SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED LARGELY PARALLEL WITH FRONT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
STORMS MAY TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO AFTER INITIATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG LLJ AXIS.

...SWRN OK INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...

A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. TEMPERATURES OF 100-105+ F/ IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF DRYLINE AND NWRN TX THERMAL LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...THE
STRONG INSOLATION AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-4000+ J/KG...SETUP WILL
FOSTER INTENSE UP/DOWNDRAFTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.


TOMORROW - Roughly Along and east of I-44

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
WILL PROGRESS EWD MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY
WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCATED FROM SRN MO SWD
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND WWD INTO ERN OK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD MO AND LITTLE ROCK AR AT 21Z
MONDAY SHOW MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2500 TO 4000 J/KG SUGGESTING
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT ABOVE 850 MB IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO PRODUCE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ROTATING
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BETTER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

venture
06-11-2012, 01:18 AM
Monday
Risk Level: Slight
Threats: Hail 2+ (Enhanced 15%), Wind (15%), Tornado (2%)
Locations: Central & Eastern Oklahoma along and south of I-44 from OK/MO to OKC and then along and east of I-35 to OK/TX.

...SYNOPSIS...
A GENERALLY LESS AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS TODAY. THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING FROM MN INTO NRN
ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE SERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE CANADA/NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI SSWWD THROUGH ERN
IA...ERN KS...TO SWRN OK AND THEN WSWWD TO TX SOUTH PLAINS AT 12Z
TODAY. GIVEN WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED MAKE SLOW PROGRESS E AND S
TODAY...THOUGH GREATER EWD MOVEMENT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

...SRN MO/AR/CENTRAL-ERN OK/NERN TX...
RICH MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...S OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C PER KM/ FROM TX/OK INTO AR
WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J PER
KG/...WITH VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED INTO SRN MO. DESPITE
THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT...A DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM N-S...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.

INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SRN MO THROUGH FAR
SERN KS AND NERN OK /ALONG THE NERN-ERN EXTENT OF A SRN PLAINS
CAP/...AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD REACHING THESE AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON /PRIOR TO 20Z/. BY 00Z...TSTMS SHOULD HAVE SPREAD SSEWD
INTO MUCH OF ERN OK AND CENTRAL AR...WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA CITY
SWD TO THE RED RIVER. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE FROM W-E
WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 30-40 KT...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MIXED STORM
MODES /MULTICELL...SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS/. DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX INTO MUCH OF AR...WITH SOME CONTINUED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.


Tuesday
Risk Level: Slight
Threats: Hail and Wind
Locations: South Central, Southwest, and West Central Oklahoma...generally south of a line from Durant to Pauls Valley to Clinton to Arnett.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES FROM ONTARIO/LK
SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL
ENVELOP THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PROGGED TO
CROSS NRN WY INTO WRN SD BY TUE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EWD IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY. TRAILING
PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE RED
RIVER/N TX REGION...LIKELY BEING MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR NW OF THE BOUNDARY AS LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW INCREASES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

...SRN PLAINS TO THE BLACK HILLS...
AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY REMAINS LIKELY WITH MULTIPLE EPISODES OF
SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHETHER TSTM CLUSTERS WILL
BE ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE ALONG WITH SPATIAL LOCATION /FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX/...NEAR AND N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
STILL...ROBUST HEATING S OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S SHOULD YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AOA 2500 J/KG. ANY MORNING TSTM CLUSTERS
WOULD LIKELY INTENSIFY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ERN NM AS LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTS. ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
WLYS...SEMI-ORGANIZED MCS/S WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
APPEAR PROBABLE WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADDING ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES CENTERED OVER
NWRN TX...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BASED ON DIFFERENCES DEPICTED IN
GUIDANCE...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR WHEN THESE MESOSCALE
DETAILS MAY BECOME MORE CLEAR.

FARTHER N...A RIBBON OF 40S TO LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
DRAWN NWD TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY MAY REMAIN
MODEST...UPSLOPE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE SHOULD
COMPENSATE...YIELDING SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH A BELT OF NEAR 40 KT WLYS AT 500
MB...THE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS SHOULD
EVOLVE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS AS THE LLJ
INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RISKS OF WIND/HAIL.

venture
06-11-2012, 02:02 AM
Will touch more on the severe weather chances tomorrow as the day progresses. SPC has a decent summary of it all. It just depends on how fast the front gets through tomorrow.

One thing I did want to point out about the models is the strong single of the typical summer "ridge o' death" setting up about 10 days out. Looks like it will get firmly established over the region and push the main storm tracks well north. With it are signals of temps staying well into the 100s for afternoon highs. Nothing I would lock in just yet since run to run consistency of this solution isn't good right now.

Roadhawg
06-11-2012, 01:11 PM
ugh... too early for those temps. I was in Ft Worth over the weekend and it was 90 there by noon.

venture
06-11-2012, 01:42 PM
Norman / Max Westheimer
Lat: 35.25 Lon: -97.47 Elev: 1184
Last Update on Jun 11, 1:35 pm CDT

Partly Cloudy

90 F
(32 C)Humidity:71 %Wind Speed:N 7 MPHBarometer:29.90"Dewpoint:79 F (26 C)Heat Index:106 F (41 C)Visibility:10.00 mi.More Local Wx (http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=OKZ029&local_place=Norman+OK&zoneid=CDT&offset=18000):

venture
06-11-2012, 01:43 PM
Wanted to point out the Dewpoint right now. I can't remember the last time I saw a dewpoint near 80 degrees outside of the tropics.

ou48A
06-11-2012, 01:52 PM
It’s an unusually high DP…… And it’s with a north wind too.

venture
06-11-2012, 01:56 PM
Severe weather risk today is generally along and south/east of I-44. Monster hail and damaging downbursts are the big threat for today. Extreme instability right now from the OKC area SW to Altus. CAPE values are up around 5000-5500 j/kg. Best area of convergence is between OKC and TUL and will continues to sag south. We are seeing some CU develop over the area right now, mix in with the existing cloud deck. HRRR pinpoints development just east of the Metro area by 4-6PM and then additional isolated development in Southern OK.

Right now still going to be a close call if OKC gets anything to help break some of the heat outside.

Jesseda
06-11-2012, 02:45 PM
It is so humid outside. My co-workers are saying it feels like tornado weather, lol we are no weather experts, but it just that feeling. Wonder if okc is going to get severe weather today?

venture
06-11-2012, 02:52 PM
We are looking at a few showers trying to go up along an outflow boundary moving from Pawnee to Tulsa to Okmulgee and back east into AR. This is from the large line of storms out east. The frontal boundary is just south of a Pague > Shawnee > Purcell > Rush Springs > Lawton line right now.

CU development is well north of the boundary though too, so not impossible for some storms there. However, the cap is very tough today and it might not be able to break except for a few isolated cases southeast of OKC. If we had a strong storm system coming through it would definitely be an exceptional day, but we don't so we get to sweat and feel miserable as OG&E takes all of our money. ;)

venture
06-11-2012, 04:35 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1126.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112059Z - 112230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK AND WRN AR. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE AREAS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS IF CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE CAPPING CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION ACROSS NERN OK...IN CONCERT WITH VERY HOT AND LOCALLY
EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO AT LEAST 3000 J PER KG/...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT STORM INITIATION IS BEING INHIBITED
BY 1) VERY WARM AIR ALOFT ACTING TO KEEP AIR MASS CAPPED...AND 2)
LACK OF GREATER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST GUIDANCE PROVIDES MIXED SIGNALS ON WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WITH RAPID REFRESH INDICATING STORM INITIATION
BY 00Z...NAM SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND 18Z HRRR
SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NWRN AR AND ERN OK IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
MODEST WLY FLOW AROUND 30KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO
OCCUR.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/11/2012

venture
06-11-2012, 06:17 PM
Starting to see some development in southern Pontotoc County between Stonewall and Roff. This is right along the front and is probably being pushed up from the outflow boundary now intersecting it.

venture
06-11-2012, 09:07 PM
Cap has weakened enough and storms have started to develop. Main area is going to be along the front which is running from west o Leon in far western Love County, to Spring to Sulphur, to Stonewall, to McAlester.

Storm in Western Love/SW Carter counties is borderline severe right now with 1.3" hail possible.

venture
06-11-2012, 09:29 PM
Storms in Coal and E Murray/NW Johnston are now approaching severe levels. HRRR is showing this development pretty well. It also is hinting at additional development behind the front up through the far southern sections of the Metro area (Norman/Purcell).

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS


OKC005-013-019-023-029-061-067-069-077-079-085-095-099-121-123-
127-120900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0377.120612T0225Z-120612T0900Z/


OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE


ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER
LE FLORE LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0377_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
POTEAU OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS IN N TX WILL LIKELY SPREAD ENEWD INTO S
CENTRAL OK...ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT INTO E CENTRAL/SE OK. A RESERVOIR OF
STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. THUS...THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/...AS WELL AS
DAMAGING GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (50%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

venture
06-12-2012, 12:42 AM
Marginal severe storm in Garvin and far southern McClain is starting to weaken a bit. It is pushing an outflow boundary north that will give us southerly winds for a bit. We could see additional development right behind it but looks like the main complex is starting to sag SE finally. Look for a good dumping of rain if you anything pops up overhead. A lot of moisture out there it play off of.

Roadhawg
06-12-2012, 08:42 AM
It is so humid outside. My co-workers are saying it feels like tornado weather, lol we are no weather experts, but it just that feeling. Wonder if okc is going to get severe weather today?

It's humid enough I put the top of my jeep up so I could run the AC

Roadhawg
06-14-2012, 08:02 AM
Right at 90 for the next several days.... Not sure what the extended is like.

venture
06-14-2012, 12:38 PM
Extended looks pretty dry but GFS is standing firm for the last several runs on bringing a front through next Thursday/Friday.

venture
06-14-2012, 12:54 PM
Slight risk brought in today for roughly the western 1/3rd of Oklahoma for a large hail threat.

HRRR still working to get a handle on things. The 14Z run has storms firing around 1-3PM today over Eastern OK and moving back west over Central section. Then around the same time has storms develop out west in the TX PH approach W OK by 8PM. The 15Z HRRR has storms firing out in W OK by 1-3PM with nothing out east. The Rapid Refresh model is sort of a mix of the two HRRR runs...with the activity in the TX PH out west eventually getting into W OK later and also the chance for some east to west moving storms developing over SE OK.

Latest visible has some light CU development in SE OK with what looks like a weak outflow area from the dying complex over NE TX. Then it looks like a couple bands of clouds over W OK have formed up as well.


...MID MO VALLEY INTO SRN PLAINS...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLOCATION OF AN EML WITH LOWEST
100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 12-15 G/KG ACROSS WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL YIELD A MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000+ J/KG. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTIPLE
CLUSTERS/MCSS TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...THOUGH
FORECAST KINEMATIC PROFILES DO INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KT. THE
MARGINAL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE
MODE WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
EXPECT AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH EVOLVING TSTM CLUSTERS/MCSS.

venture
06-14-2012, 09:36 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0394_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 920 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389...WW 390...WW
391...WW 392...WW 393...

DISCUSSION...TWO LINES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SEWD/EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN OK AND NWRN TX. NRN LINE FROM SWRN KS
INTO THE OK PANHANDLE IS MOVING SEWD AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THREAT
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SRN LINE FROM THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS IS MOVING ESEWD WITH CONTINUING
THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
STORMS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG...AND ACTIVITY
MAY BE SUSTAINED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET INTENSIFIES OVER THE PLAINS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

venture
06-15-2012, 12:31 AM
Significant severe storms moving SE into the NW Metro area shortly. It is part of a complex that has been generally shifting ESE to more SE. Winds 60-70 mph are pretty likely. Media keeps pushing it move more ESE, though would not be shocked to see this dive more southerly as the southern complex did. So don't be shocked if the weather radios go off.

venture
06-15-2012, 12:51 AM
New warning for NW and Northern extremes of the Metro area.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 145 AM CDT


* AT 1242 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BRAMAN TO GARBER TO CANTON...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

Bunty
06-15-2012, 02:16 AM
Heavy rain from Stillwater to Kingfisher. Hopefully not much high wind or hail. It's definitely dropping toward the city.

venture
06-15-2012, 02:43 AM
One thing to keep an eye on we have two outflow boundaries right now. One is ahead of the main batch coming in from the NW. The other is moving east generally almost right along the I-35 corridor now from near Mustang due south. Seeing some enhancement around Yukon with some heavier rain and perhaps some hail.

ou48A
06-16-2012, 10:22 AM
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino watch last week because of warmer than normal waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The El Nino phenomenon typically means colder and wetter than normal conditions in Oklahoma from the following October to March, said Gary McManus, associate state climatologist. La Nina, which occurs due to cooler than normal water temperatures and is the opposite of El Nino, was in effect during the last two winters.

: http://knowit.newsok.com/severe-weather-oklahoma#ixzz1xyCmNzOy

venture
06-16-2012, 10:36 AM
Newer Day 1 will be out in about an hour, but wanted to draw notice that the slight risk for today had been redrawn to include much of Oklahoma north of a line generally from Hollis > Altus > Purcell > Holdenville > Eufaula > Sallisaw. Wind and hail main threat.

UPDATED 11:38 -- Slight risk area has been redrawn to be a little narrower. It is now mainly along and north of I-44 from OK/MO border to Bridge Creek and then generally north of a line from Amber to Anadarko to Cooperton to Erick to Reydon.

...OK...
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NOW STRETCHES
E-W ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND IS DISSIPATING. THIS REGION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SUGGESTING SLOW MOVING MULTICELL
STORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH CAPE VALUES AND PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

venture
06-16-2012, 02:00 PM
Longer term models keep backing the front off for next week. We'll see what happens. Looks like a setup back after next week to bring more complex through. Don't be shocked if things change from this prediction though. Also, GFS continues with developing a tropical system in the Gulf so that needs to be watched as well.

venture
06-16-2012, 03:19 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1188.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162002Z - 162130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW TX AND CNTRL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/BRIEF
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NW TX FROM THE LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS AMID
A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER NE /ACROSS CNTRL OK/...THE
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MORE AGITATED CB FIELD...SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MAY OCCUR SOON. THE WEAKLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
/0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AOB 20 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG PER
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/ ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT STRONG BUT BRIEF
PULSE CONVECTION. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS W TX SUGGESTS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS /ALSO SUPPORTED BY DCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1200 J/KG PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/ WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS CNTRL OK APPEAR MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A PRIMARY
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF STRONG WINDS. ONE
ADDITIONAL ITEM OF NOTE...LATEST RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL OK. A CLOSER LOOK
AT THE RAP SOUNDINGS REVEALS A SUPER-ADIABATIC LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE...CAUSING THE ANALYZED TEMPERATURE TO BE A FEW DEGREE HIGHER
THAN OBSERVED. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/16/2012

ou48A
06-17-2012, 12:50 PM
I don’t know if this is an accurate reading or not, but it’s what it says at the time of this posting.
This is like Houston weather. I sure wish it would rain 2 or 3 inches though.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=oun&zmx=1.25&zmy=1.25&map.x=252&map.y=163

Norman / Max Westheimer Dewpoint: 77 F

venture
06-17-2012, 01:01 PM
About as bad as the one I posted last week of 79F dewpoint. Mesonet only has 70F...still insane highly for us.