View Full Version : Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012



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Roadhawg
06-18-2012, 11:01 AM
Looks like it's going to stay hot and dry for the next several days.

venture
06-18-2012, 04:23 PM
Ridge of death is definitely establishing itself pretty well. GFS is back trying to push the front in Thursday through the Northern half of Oklahoma, so we'll have to wait and see if that actually happens. Depending on where the center of the high sets up, we'll see a Ring of Fire setup with storms moving around it. If the high settles into TX a bit this could help give us some storm chances late next week. Instability of course is going to be very high to extreme, but that means nothing with a strong cap on everything.

PennyQuilts
06-18-2012, 04:54 PM
Ridge of Death. Ring of Fire. Sounds like a Country and Western song by Tolkien.

Roadhawg
06-18-2012, 05:03 PM
Ridge of Death. Ring of Fire. Sounds like a Country and Western song by Tolkien.

or Oklahoma weather lol

venture
06-18-2012, 11:41 PM
Quick update for Thursday. GFS this evening is wanting to break out storms along the front moving through the state still. NAM is holding everything back into KS. So cross fingers that the GFS is the right solution so we don't start drying out already.

venture
06-20-2012, 12:03 PM
Slight Risk today mainly NW OK.

...KS/OK/TX...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM
NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FULL HEATING
WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING AND HELP WEAKEN THE CAP...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 30+ DEGREE
SURFACE T-TD SPREADS...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 2000 J/KG...AND STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO YIELD A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

Roadhawg
06-24-2012, 03:30 PM
welp.... it's hot out, at least the humidity is down

bandnerd
06-24-2012, 05:47 PM
So, I guess this is the dreaded heat dome, eh?

Easy180
06-24-2012, 05:51 PM
Guessing there is zero chance of us getting any rain from Debby?

venture
06-24-2012, 10:34 PM
Guessing there is zero chance of us getting any rain from Debby?

Pretty much.

00Z GFS is still running but the 18Z GFS does show an increase of storms around July 3rd. So there is hope.

blangtang
06-25-2012, 12:25 AM
Its time to head North

venture
06-26-2012, 02:20 AM
Well...00Z GFS tonight. Slight chance of storms NW OK Sunday and then a chance NE OK on the 5th of July. Other than that...dry for Central and other sections through the 12th of July.

Wish I had better news. Things can always chance. Front could make it in, extra moisture could work in and the cap could break, a complex from the NW could make it in, or a tropical system from the Gulf.

I'm just going to see if Pete or Mmm can add July to this thread. No sense in making a new one for July at this point.

venture
06-26-2012, 12:28 PM
Wonder how many times this will get extended. LOL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012


OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-270030-
/O.NEW.KOUN.HT.Y.0001.120626T1700Z-120630T0300Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONG A...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...S EMINOLE...
HOLDENVILLE...HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...F REDERICK...
LAWTON...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...
WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA.. .MARIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL.. .VERNON...
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012


...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY.


* TEMPERATURE: MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES... WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S.


* IMPACTS: A CONTINUATION OF VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
ONLY MODEST COOLING AT NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE DANGER OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER OR SPORT DRINKS PRIOR TO AND
DURING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.


TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.

Roadhawg
06-26-2012, 01:24 PM
Well...00Z GFS tonight. Slight chance of storms NW OK Sunday and then a chance NE OK on the 5th of July. Other than that...dry for Central and other sections through the 12th of July.

Wish I had better news. Things can always chance. Front could make it in, extra moisture could work in and the cap could break, a complex from the NW could make it in, or a tropical system from the Gulf.

I'm just going to see if Pete or Mmm can add July to this thread. No sense in making a new one for July at this point.

Since my mowers in the shop I can do without rain until it gets fixed.

RadicalModerate
06-26-2012, 02:44 PM
I'm glad that I mowed the back yard yesterday.

So . . . (honest question. really, in that connection):
On an old "Murray" mower, with a 3.75HP, Briggs and Stratton engine (with a handle that has been repaired/reinforced with rebar and hose clamps)--that starts first time, everytime--do you loosen the blade bolt to the left or the right?

I just purchased an angle-grinder (a cheap one) and I am thinking about sharpening the blade (on the mower).
The angle-grinder worked nearly perfectly for cutting some paving stones to fit for a patio extension, but I think it should be more of a multi-tasker.
I think my wife would probably agree. =)

But if it is going to rain, then why water the plants?

(Dang . . . I think I just ended up in Possum Lodge, Canada!)

Roadhawg
06-26-2012, 02:52 PM
It should loosen the opposite direction the blade turns I think.... or I may have that backwards

RadicalModerate
06-26-2012, 03:07 PM
Thanks, amigo . . .
I guess I'll just have to call My LawnCare Expert.
I don't know if he is right...or left...
But for sure he ain't a-gonna leave to mud on the driveway. =)

Apology: Everybody talks about the weather. Or not.

Venture: Thank you for your forbearance and understanding.
(did i spell forbearance rite?)
And thanks a lot for bringing us that [dad-gumm-burned/blaimed] hailstorm a couple of weeks ago. =)

sacolton
07-05-2012, 08:50 AM
Rain is coming!!! Rain is coming!!!

Dubya61
07-05-2012, 12:38 PM
This

OKCisOK4me
07-05-2012, 12:49 PM
Is it still June? Or is Venture sacking on creating a July thread?

bandnerd
07-05-2012, 03:35 PM
If you look a few posts up, OKCisOK4me, then you'll see that venture had planned on adding July to the June thread since there wasn't enough of a change to warrant a new thread. I guess it just never happened.

OKCisOK4me
07-05-2012, 04:41 PM
Sorry. We're all guilty of not looking a few posts up from time to time, lol.

bandnerd
07-06-2012, 08:21 AM
Oh yeah, it happens to all of us :) However, it's not like the weather has changed, anyway. July might as well be June at this point.

venture
07-06-2012, 09:57 AM
Yeah I put in a request to have one of the mods add July to the title since there wasn't much point in creating a new one. LOL

I'll put in another request and see if they can update it for me. :)

venture
07-14-2012, 06:13 PM
Good amount of dust being kicked up over Southern Norman by this thing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC027-087-142315-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0401.120714T2252Z-120714T2315Z/


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
552 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 615 PM CDT


* AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ETOWAH...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PURCELL...SLAUGHTERVILLE...LEXINGTON...ETOWAH AND LAKE THUNDERBIRD.


THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 88 AND 98.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.


&&


LAT...LON 3493 9737 3512 9742 3528 9719 3511 9714
3503 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 54DEG 19KT 3510 9723

Roadhawg
07-14-2012, 06:36 PM
It keeps getting hotter at my house... was 96 and I was waiting for it to cool down before I mowed and now it's 99.

Down to 91 so I can mow

ou48A
07-18-2012, 06:31 PM
OK, its getting close to fall garden planting time. Some of my vegetables won’t survive extreme heat particularly when they are very young. When is this hot high pressure system going to move on?
I need to plant things in the next 10 days or so, or the production will be limited this fall.

venture
07-19-2012, 03:01 AM
OK, its getting close to fall garden planting time. Some of my vegetables won’t survive extreme heat particularly when they are very young. When is this hot high pressure system going to move on?
I need to plant things in the next 10 days or so, or the production will be limited this fall.

We might get into a Northwest flow pattern by early August but right now I wouldn't bet on it. The ridge is firmly entrenched and no indication of it moving. At this point we very well could remain in this setup until the end of August or early September. Of course if we could El Nino going faster that could help bring the jetstream back south sooner.

ou48A
07-19-2012, 09:17 AM
We might get into a Northwest flow pattern by early August but right now I wouldn't bet on it. The ridge is firmly entrenched and no indication of it moving. At this point we very well could remain in this setup until the end of August or early September. Of course if we could El Nino going faster that could help bring the jetstream back south sooner.

Thanks Venture
Last night Gary England said that we might see slightly cooler weather this next Thursday and Friday.
As far as fall gardening goes that’s probably going to be my best shot.
I ‘m sure glad I don’t depend on growing things in Oklahoma to make a living.

Roadhawg
07-19-2012, 09:24 AM
slightly cooler could be 100 *lol*

ou48A
07-20-2012, 01:03 PM
Current conditions at

Norman / Max Westheimer
106F
Humidity32%
Wind Speed N 9 mph
Barometer 30.02 in
Dewpoint 70F (21C)
Visibility 10.00 mi


Heat Index116F

HewenttoJared
07-20-2012, 01:20 PM
NOAA says drought to possibly extend and remain virtually intact through October. Yikes.
http://climatecrocks.com/2012/07/20/hot-dry-weather-will-linger-noaa/

Bunty
07-20-2012, 01:27 PM
Current conditions at

Norman / Max Westheimer
106F
Humidity32%
Wind Speed N 9 mph
Barometer 30.02 in
Dewpoint 70F (21C)
Visibility 10.00 mi


Heat Index116F

Norman is getting a lot of heat today Yesterday was the hottest day of the year in Stillwater with 106. If forecasted high of 110 works out it will be topped.

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

ou48A
07-20-2012, 02:18 PM
Sitting here sipping a large glass of ice tea with a ceiling fan on me and the thermoset set on 73 sure has me nostalgic for my old outdoor hard working days and for my football 2 days. not.....

It’s now 108 at Norman / Max Westheimer

Achilleslastand
07-20-2012, 03:02 PM
Im beginning to really hate the phrase "heat dome".

ou48A
07-20-2012, 03:51 PM
Current conditions at Norman / Max Westheimer
Partly Cloudy 109F…… Heat Index 117F

venture
07-20-2012, 04:13 PM
Severe weather statement
national weather service norman ok
408 pm cdt fri jul 20 2012


okc069-099-123-202130-
/o.con.koun.sv.w.0405.000000t0000z-120720t2130z/
murray ok-pontotoc ok-johnston ok-
408 pm cdt fri jul 20 2012


...a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 430 pm
cdt for northeastern murray...southwestern pontotoc and extreme
northwestern johnston counties...


At 407 pm cdt...national weather service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph. This storm was located near fitzhugh...moving southwest
at 20 mph.

venture
07-20-2012, 04:37 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1520.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/WRN OK...NRN TX...ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202045Z - 202315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED SVR MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A SFC
HOT-THERMAL AXIS -- TEMPS FROM 105 TO 109 DEGREES -- ARCS FROM NW OK
THROUGH THE OKC METRO AREA AND FARTHER SE INTO SERN OK. A SFC TROUGH
ALIGNS WITH THERMAL AXIS...WITH A REMNANT/DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED NEARLY W-E JUST NORTH OF THE THERMAL AXIS. OVERLAPPING THE
SRN FRINGES OF THE HOTTEST SFC TEMPERATURES...A RIBBON OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE TROUGH SRN OK/NRN TX AND FARTHER EAST ACROSS SRN AR/NRN
LA...WITH 700-MB DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 6C PER 12Z RAOBS. DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS AMIDST THIS RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE
HAVE ALLOWED VERY ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS
BEEN AIDED BY ASCENT ALONG THE TROUGH...AND PERHAPS BY A REMNANT
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF I-35 AND THE RED
RIVER WHICH HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY.

WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOW/MID LEVELS PER AREA VWP DATA WILL FOSTER A
PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...MOVING SLOWLY
SSWWD/SWWD. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO THE
HOT SFC TEMPERATURES -- SUPPORTING DCAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG -- WILL PROMOTE STRONG MICROBURSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THESE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/20/2012

blangtang
07-20-2012, 05:41 PM
power flickered here in central OKC.

venture
07-26-2012, 06:21 AM
Slight Risk of severe weather today for Central into Northeast Oklahoma.

...OK THROUGH MID MS VALLEY REGION...

OTHER STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
NRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS. MOST OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND DOWNBURSTS WITH MULTICELL CONVECTION AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG THERMAL AXIS.

venture
07-26-2012, 03:16 PM
Slight risk has been shifted south. Rain chances seem to be lowering for the immediate OKC metro area based on latest model runs and visible satellite images. We still have a few boundaries in place across Central OK and a shower or two popping up just east of Shawnee. So there is still hope, but don't be shocked if we stay dry.

Roadhawg
07-27-2012, 09:23 AM
Didn't even get a drop at my house :(