This thread is used to discussion upcoming/ongoing severe weather events through the month of May. April so far was a relatively active month with several tornadoes including the fatal EF3 in Woodward. May is our peak tornado season, so we'll need to see if May will follow the active pattern of April. This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Every now and then you'll see a reference for "the chat room" in the discussion. This is a live chat that will be active mainly during severe weather events in Oklahoma. To reach the chat room follow the link to: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/

Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.phpOklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Severe Weather Information

Current Watches (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/validmd.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)Tornado OutlookWind OutlookHail Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif)

Day 2 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)Day 2 Probabilistic OutlookDay 3 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)Day 3 Probabilistic Outlookhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif)

Days 4 through 8 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

D (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)ay 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day4prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day5prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day6prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day7prob.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day8prob.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports


Today (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif)Yesterday (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*
Day 1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)Day 2 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)Days 3 to 8 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/imgs/day38otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)



References



COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
NWS Norman Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

State Radar ImagesWSR-88D Twin Lakes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)Base Velocity (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=tlx&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0V/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=tlx&loop=yes)WSR-88D Frederick (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)Base Velocity (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=FDR&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0V/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=FDR&loop=yes)WSR-88D Vance AFB (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=vnx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)Base Velocity (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=VNX&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0V/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=VNX&loop=yes)Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars
Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date.Phased Array Radar (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml) (Next Generation Test Bed)CASA Radar Deployment (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml) - SW Oklahomahttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/NWRT/w2_NWRT_Reflectivity_00.50.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/casart_CASA_MergedReflectivityComposite.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png)http ://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png)Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min)Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Compositehttp://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png)http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png)

State Satellite Images


Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)

Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)
Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)

Sticking with this format for another month. Once Pete gives the go ahead on the Wiki, I'll transition a lot of the information over there.

Venture, its looking like this week is going to get hot and humid. Think this may be a forerunner of a hot summer?

Venture, its looking like this week is going to get hot and humid. Think this may be a forerunner of a hot summer?

12Z GFS (which i'm going off of for this outlook) doesn't really show the evil thermonuclear high pressure dome cap of doom yet, so don't worry. :)

May 2nd - Very slight chance of a storm along the dryline in W OK. Extreme instability, any storm that would form would be severe.
May 3rd - Appears Dry. Extreme instability over most of OK, mainly from NE to Central and SW. If any storm would pop it would be severe.
May 4th - Slight chance of storms SW and South Central (SC) OK. Very High to Extreme Instability again over Central and East. Any storm that forms will be severe.
May 5th - Chance of storm North Central into SW OK (better chance SW). Very high to Extreme instability over much of OK. Any storm will likely be severe.
May 6th - Chance of storms Central & West. Very high to extreme instability, severe weather would be likely with storms that form.
May 7th - On going AM storms, new storms East to the SW later. High instability south of I-44 by evening, any storm would be severe it appears.
May 8th - Chance most of OK, better West. Moderate to high instability SE, low to moderate elsewhere south of I-44. Some may be severe.
May 9th - Storms statewide, higher Central and East. Moderate instability over most of the state, some higher instability over far SW OK. Some severe.
May 10th - Storms Central and East. Moderate/High instability SC and SE OK. Some severe.
May 11th - Chance SC and SE. Very low instability.

May 12th and On...Dry right now, but instability does start to increase again by the 16th and 17th. So don't write in Summer just yet. :)

Overall it does appear that there is an outside chance for some severe weather the next 3 days, but nothing widespread at all. Getting into the weekend could raise the potential for more widespread severe weather scenarios. So we'll have to monitor that.

HRRR last couple of runs showing storms popping in NW and SW OK. Cap is pretty tough today, so not sure that it'll happen. Though do have some CU developing over the SW.

Sunday is looking like a day that needs to be watched. There will be chances for severe weather before then, but I want to focus on Sunday for right now.

1282 1283 1281 1280 1284

Obviously you can't put a ton of weight in these longer range forecasts, but this has been showing up for a couple of days now and we are getting closer. The images above are from the 00Z GFS run this evening. I'm saving them locally here so we can reference back to them.

The first image is the precip forecast for 00Z Monday which translates to 7PM Sunday evening. The story with this shows a surface low moving through NW Texas. There is also precip showing up from the OKC Metro area back through SW OK. This is a 6 hour accumulation precip forecast, which would suggest precip starting between 1PM and 7PM. It should be noted that the next forecast period does show a full line of precip from NE to SW OK. This tends to indicate isolated/scattered activity which will probably develop around the typical 4-7PM time frame.

The next frame shows the dewpoint at 7PM Sunday which also has surface wind direction. So two things to take away here. There is a cold front at this time running from around Ponca City down to Weatherford and back through the Panhandle. The difference in dewpoint in SW OK also could highlight a dryline getting taken over at the time by the front. The dryline is running from near Hollis, OK/Childress, TX due south through West Texas. White is very dry air and light green is your 50 degree line. Over the area ahead of the front shows dewpoints well into the upper 60s and low 70s. So moisture check. The other good thing to look at is the wind direction. Strong Southeast winds look pretty common ahead of the boundary which would highlight decent backing to the wind assisting with shear.

Moving on to the next part is the Lifted Index images with dewpoints again. We are looking at LI's at insane levels ahead of the boundary showing anywhere from -10 to -13.6 over Central OK. This is extremely unstable and would highlight a pretty good chance of some high end severe weather. However it is just one factor and that needs to be rationalized. As we have learned there are many things that have to line up for severe weather to come into play.

The next image is your CAPE forecast. You can see a very good size area of very high to extreme instability. The gray area is over 5500 j/kg...it doesn't get much higher than that. The red area is 4000 j/kg and up...still very high/extreme. This tells us the atmosphere should have the energy for storms to forms and survive and with levels this high would likely be severe.

Finally the forecast sounding image. Wind profiles on the far right edge look pretty good showing a good change in wind direction as you go up in altitude - SE winds at surface to W winds 9000 feet up. Looking at some of the numbers on the right we are looking at LCLs around 907, so that would be pretty decent for surface based storms. TT is in the high category. KI is in the moderate category. SW (or SWEAT index) is in the moderate category right now, but still pretty significant. CIN looks pretty low at this time and the CAP strength is 1.4 which is definitely doable. Helicity looks pretty decent at 111, so that needs to monitored. EHI is also high which would lead to some strong tornadoes but could also lead to oversheared storms. The good news in all this if things get crazy, storm motion will be to the Northeast at around 20 mph - so they will not be moving too fast and easy to track. At least for the storms not right along the front being pushed to the SE faster.

So in the end what does all this mean? First of all it could mean nothing. It all could just go away on the next model run but we've been there before and I always include that disclaimer. However, this does highlight a pretty decent severe weather setup and does warrant monitoring. Am I going to say a high risk day or anything like that? Heck no. I don't trust computer models that much this far out. :) However if this setup was for tomorrow, it would come across as potential high end slight risk or moderate risk day being limited only by general lack of widespread coverage and still uncertainty in the model solution.

Slight Risk for tomorrow has been extended into Central OK. This is an enhanced risk area as well. Slight risk is generally along I-35 and to the east - including most of the OKC Metro area. Models do indicate that storms could form just to the west or southwest of OKC and move through tomorrow afternoon/evening. There is also the chance things don't really get going until things move into NE OK. Instability is high as previously advertised so the chance for severe weather with any storm that forms is pretty good.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA TO ERN
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN FL TO SERN TN...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEAMPLIFYING MS
VALLEY RIDGING AND RELATED NET HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN
CONUS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR PAC NW -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN
ROCKIES DAY-1...CONTRACTING INTO CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE OVER MT/SK
BORDER REGION BY START OF PERIOD. LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER TO NERN ND OR NWRN MN BY 7/12Z...WITH POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SWWD ACROSS WRN SD AND WY. MEANWHILE...WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OVER COASTAL CA AND MAY
DEVELOP SMALL/CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE BY END OF PERIOD OVER OR NEAR
SRN PORTIONS CA/NV. PROGS REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT BY END OF PERIOD
REGARDING AMPLITUDE/POSITION OF THIS FEATURE. WEAK/SRN-STREAM
PERTURBATION...NOW EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER WRN AR -- IS FCST TO DRIFT SEWD OVER PORTIONS AL/GA BY
7/12Z...BECOMING PART OF BROAD/WEAK AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NERN
GULF AND FL.

AT SFC...LEE-SIDE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FCST TO
MIGRATE TO SERN SD/NWRN IA AREA BY 6/12Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
INTO SECONDARY/FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER SRN KS OR NWRN OK. WAVY
FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW ANALYZED FROM DELMARVA REGION TO INDIANA AND NEB
-- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD AS COLD FRONT ACROSS CAROLINAS TO NRN GA
BY START OF PERIOD. BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY NWWD
OVER TN VALLEY THEN WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN/WRN IL AND IA. FRONTAL
POSITION MAY BE MODULATED SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT PERIOD BY OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. BY 7/00Z...WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS
IL AND PORTIONS LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE COLD FRONT REACHES PORTIONS
SERN KS...OK AND NW TX. EVEN BY MIDDLE OF PERIOD...MESOSCALE
DISCREPANCIES ARE APPARENT IN PROGGED FRONTAL POSITIONS THAT WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO GREATEST SVR PROBABILITIES.

...IL/INDIANA TO ERN OK...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...WHILE CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SVR
CONVECTION EXISTS OVER WARM FRONT. DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS ARE MAIN SVR
THREATS.

LACK OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTS
PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR MODE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED COMMONLY
BY MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS...WITH POCKETS OF 70S F...BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED
WITH MID-LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE 3500-5000 J/KG IN MUCH OF OUTLOOK
AREA. MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR SUSTAINED/NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE NEAR WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS INDIANA/OH...SVR
POTENTIAL DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING AND DIFFERENCES IN
AREAS OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT...SVR OUTLOOK IS KEPT RATHER
BROAD-BRUSHED ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF STG-EXTREME
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR...30% SVR
CONCENTRATION EASILY MAY BECOME APPARENT WITHIN THIS AREA IN
SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS. AS IT STANDS...THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED VERY
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IN EARLY STAGES OF CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALONG
WITH SVR HAIL AND GUSTS AS COVERAGE INCREASES ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT
AND COLD POOLS ACCUMULATE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=oun&zmx=1.25&zmy=1.25&map.x=250&map.y=161



Thunderstorm outlook...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight
across portions of oklahoma and western north texas.

Location...
the slight risk is along and east of a line from medford and enid...
To el reno and lawton oklahoma... To wichita falls and archer city
texas.
timing...
The most likely time for severe thunderstorms will be from 4 pm
through 11 pm.

Impacts...
Hail to the size of tennis balls and damaging wind gusts to 65
mph will be the main concerns. Some damage to automobiles and tender
vegetation from large hail will be possible.

Recommended actions...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk area should plan for severe weather operations from late this
afternoon through this evening.

Discussion...
A cold front will move across the region today and tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop near the front late this
afternoon and evening. A moist unstable airmass will be in place
east of the front. Enough instability and wind shear will be
available for some of the storms to become severe. Large hail and
strong wind gusts will be the main concerns.

The potential for severe storms will diminish late this evening.
However... Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible overnight
into early monday morning.

Probability table...
Valid through 700 am cdt monday may 7.
Probability of thunderstorms occurring in the
nws norman county warning area...60 percent.
Probability of severe storms if storms occur...60 percent.

Latest hrrr is showing storms firing in south central ok around 4pm expanding up through the norman area by 8pm. Storm wil then push off to the east before dying out. Large hail is the big thing today. Chat room is open and ill jump in from time to time today.

New HRRR is holding strong and still wanting to pop storms in OK, though it keeps pushing it back with each run. Latest run has them firing up in the next 1-2 hours from OKC back to the SW to LAW. Quickly moving them off to the NE and dying out by 10-11PM. Not sure how much I'm buying it right now.

Per the Frederick radar the cold front is could to collide with the retreating dryline here in the next hour. We'll see if that is enough to get anything going. There is plenty of energy out there so if someone can overcome the high CIN values a storm or two could put down some substantial hail and heavy rain. Until then though I expect things to remain quiet for the most part until some rain/storms pop up behind the front later this evening/overnight.

It seems like it’s been too quiet for this time of year… That’s not all bad.

Quiet works for me, Lets the large amount of insurance claims cool down some so hopefully rates will go down in the future a bit as well as lengthens the time between possible claims. Quiet sunny cool weather with occasional showers/storms is ok with me.

Well I fell asleep early last night and didn't get to post on the 00Z model runs, so I'll do it now. The 12Z runs won't be out for a few hours yet...at least for GFS.

The quick version...No heat dome incoming yet next two weeks. Only a couple week rain chances (sorry plants). No severe weather until maybe end of next week. Bonus item, GFS has a tropical system developing in the Caribbean moving across Cuba, SE Florida and just off the East Coast in 2 weeks. Of course nothing is in stone with these longer range model runs, but it tames the boredom I guess.

End of Week rain chances are very low going by NAM, but GFS does bring in rain for late Friday and Saturday. Then has a complex of storms over SE CO drop into the TX PH and W OK on Sunday Morning. That looks like it until maybe Thursday May 17th. Then by Saturday the 19th could see some storms over W OK, may be severe. Sunday the 20th very very slight chance of storms over W and C OK. That Monday looks dry. Tuesday chance of storms/severe weather in Central OK. Weds Night into Thursday maybe more storms NW, but instability backs off.

Really nothing standing out right now. All in all a very quiet and tame May for the most part.

Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman)

4 hours ago.


Weather Update: Perfect Spring weather will continue around here for awhile. Another cold front arrives Saturday so a little rain for our weekend. Don't expect much in the way of severe weather though until after the 17th. Kind of a quiet pattern right now.
http://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

So pretty much exactly what I said. :-P LOL

So pretty much exactly what I said. :-P LOL

Meteorology is still part art, 2 opinions are often better than one, are they not?

Looks like everyone is expecting it to rain tomorrow, what's up, venture? No one's talking about severe weather, which is great, but rain is always welcome!

Boo! I hope the rain holds off tomorrow evening. I'm graduating and want some fireworks at OU commencement!

General light/moderate rain for most of today it looks like. Things will get more scattered after this main band moves through.

Next chance of severe weather still looks to be on or after the 17th.

No new weather news?

Maybe soon. I'll post more this evening. I'm also working on a new weather program (for PC) to help make a lot of the severe weather stuff easier to understand. If anyone has any requests for features toss them my way. :)

Maybe soon. I'll post more this evening. I'm also working on a new weather program (for PC) to help make a lot of the severe weather stuff easier to understand. If anyone has any requests for features toss them my way. :)

Is there any way to include a TOR:CON index forecast or something similar?

Supposedly the TOR:CON index was developed by Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel.

It will have the SPC indexes...Sig Tornado, Supercell, and Sig Hail.

I can probably would on a derivative of the Sig Tornado to get a similar TORCON like index, but that would essentially just take SIGTOR and put it against existing conditions. So if there is a a high SIGTOR number, but the CAP strength is like 5 or 6 on a sounding...obviously nothing is going to develop. I'll see what I can come up with and we can test it and see how accurate it is over time. LOL

Maybe soon. I'll post more this evening. I'm also working on a new weather program (for PC) to help make a lot of the severe weather stuff easier to understand. If anyone has any requests for features toss them my way. :)

Very good... just making sure you were still around

Slight Risk tomorrow for Western OK

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM CO/NM INTO NEB/KS/WRN OK
BY 20/00Z. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST SFC PRESSURE WILL RISE IN
THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES FORCING A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION
FROM NRN MN...SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY PEAK
HEATING. VERY WARM EML WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLGT RISK REGION
EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE
ELONGATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IT APPEARS SFC TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
EVEN SO...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS KS/NWRN OK/TX
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST
BEHIND THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT TOWARD EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS. LATEST DATA ALSO
SUGGESTS A CONCENTRATION OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WARM SECTOR CAP. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
GIVEN THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY BE
RESERVED TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IT APPEARS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
WARM ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.

Initiation looks to be between 4 and 6 PM in NW OK this afternoon. Storms will move generally off to the East/Northeast. Could see some into Central areas late tonight, but severe threat should be down by then but could still see a few severe reports.

...E TX PNHDL/WRN OK INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA TODAY/TNGT...
PERSISTENT LOW LVL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER MOISTENING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLNS TODAY. HOWEVER...SFC DATA /ESPECIALLY CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/ AND BLENDED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST. THIS
FACTOR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN BROAD/DEEP EML...AMPLE
SBCAPE /1500-2500 J PER KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SVR STORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MID MO VLY.

BAND OF STORMS NOW PRESENT FROM NW IA SWD INTO NW MO/ERN KS MARKS
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EML AND ASSOCIATED WAA. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL...THE TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AS ASSOCIATED LLJ WEAKENS AND BACKS. NEW STORMS...WITH A
GREATER SVR POTENTIAL...SHOULD FORM BY MID-LATE AFTN ALONG FRONT/LEE
TROUGH FROM S CNTRL NEB SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING OVERCOME EML CAP.

MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /MAX SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F/ WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY. BUT 40+ KT SWLY 500 MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH
CO UPR IMPULSE AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF 35 KT SLY LLJ WILL YIELD
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. A FEW OF THESE
MAY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVE...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS
A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...MORE GENERALLY
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY LENGTHY SQLN BY EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A
CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND COULD PRODUCE A BROADER SWATH OR TWO
OF DMGG WIND INTO TNGT AS THE COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE/STRENGTHEN.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD BEYOND NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE
RETURN.

Good line of cu developing in nw ok...watch is up now.

Watch has been extended into the Metro area (western parts)...

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 282
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012


OKC015-017-200300-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0282.000000T0000Z-120520T0300Z/


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 282 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING


IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES


IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


CANADIAN


IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA


CADDO


THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...EL RENO...
MUSTANG AND YUKON.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0284_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 281...WW 282...WW 283...

DISCUSSION...TWO SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING...ONE OVER W-CNTRL OK...AND THE OTHER OVER S-CNTRL KS...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS N-CNTRL
OK. 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY MOIST...STEEP
LAPSE RATE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...SETUP WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.

So you might be thinking...has May seemed abnormally quiet? So far for the month of May we've had 3 total severe weather days.

May 1st had our only tornadoes for the month of May and that was with activity that was on going after Midnight from April 30th. The other two days were May 4th in a very localized area of SW OK and then a couple days ago - May 19th. The numbers for the month so far...

Tornadoes: 2
Wind Reports (56 mph +): 25
Significant Wind Reports (75 mph+): 6
Hail Reports (1" +): 30
Significant Hail Reports (2" +): 5

April was a very big month for us overall and historically when April is very active May is usually the same. This year seems to be the opposite to that as the main jet stream has stayed well north. This week it looks like it'll drop south some as a trough forms to the our west, but will again retreat back north through the first week of June. Even though we all love not having to get a new roof every year, there is the need for rain to mitigate any summer fire danger. There is hope. As the jet stream moves back north we will ease into a Northwest flow pattern (typical June-like storm pattern) by the middle of next week. This should assist in getting us some storms here...probably the typical complex situations of storms forming in KS/CO and diving SE towards us.

So going off the 00Z GFS...here is what we are looking at.

- Now through probably May 28th/Monday dry. Could see chances increase out west before this, but overall looks dry.
- Tues May 29th: Transition to NW flow begins and chance of storms mainly I-40 and to the north. Instability moderate to high. Severe possible.
- Weds May 30th: Storms possible over much of the state, higher chances west with complex from KS. Severe possible.
- Thurs May 31st: Heavy Rain/Storms possible early western half from storm complex. Severe possible.
- Fri June 1st: Chance of storms Western 1/3rd as complex drops south. Dry elsewhere.
- Sat June 2nd: Dry.
- Sun June 3rd: Chance of storms Central & West.
- Mon June 4th: Chance of storms Southwest half of OK. Severe possible.
- Tue June 5th: Chance of storms all of OK, best chance Central / East. Severe possible.
- Wed June 6th: The last day of the forecast window is always goofy. Chance of rain and we'll leave it at that. :)

So something I'll point out. It always appears GFS loads up the 2nd week of its forecast with storm chances, but then they seem to not happen. So keep that in mind when looking at this. Though indications are we'll get into a better pattern for storm development, this is not written in stone.

Venture - By saying that it's been a quiet month - you're hexing us for sure! The prog charts show a dry line in western Oklahoma later this week.

Those tornado reports that were reported as "May 1st", I believe happened April 30. SPC has a funky way of reporting severe wx reports and which day it actually happened. For record keeping purposes, the day goes from 1am-12:59am. They do this to keep wih standard time. So, if a tornado were to occur on May 1st, 2012 at 12:30am, it would actually be recorded on April 30th, even though the calendar dates is May 1st.

I know it's weird but for record keeping purposes, SPC has those tornadoes listed as happening on April 30th. The NWS is currently updating their records to reflect this as well.

As for a tornado happening on May 19th. Where did this come from? Not seeing any reports.

Those tornado reports that were reported as "May 1st", I believe happened April 30. SPC has a funky way of reporting severe wx reports and which day it actually happened. For record keeping purposes, the day goes from 1am-12:59am. They do this to keep wih standard time. So, if a tornado were to occur on May 1st, 2012 at 12:30am, it would actually be recorded on April 30th, even though the calendar dates is May 1st.

I know it's weird but for record keeping purposes, SPC has those tornadoes listed as happening on April 30th. The NWS is currently updating their records to reflect this as well.

As for a tornado happening on May 19th. Where did this come from? Not seeing any reports.

You're reading it wrong. :) We had a total of 3 severe weather days...May 1st, 4th, and 19th. The only two tornadoes that were recorded in May were on May 1st as I stated. These were in NE Oklahoma where I had already accounted for the time different. So they they are on the April 30th report, but they occurred after Midnight CDT (0500 UTC). My apologies if it was difficult to understand. I already accounted for the time difference and based it on the actual local time the events took place, not when they showed up on an SPC report.


Venture - By saying that it's been a quiet month - you're hexing us for sure! The prog charts show a dry line in western Oklahoma later this week.

Dryline will be out there, but little support for anything to develop.

Me reading things wrong has been known to happen :) SPC hasn't recorded the tornadoes for May 1st. ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120501_rpts.html

Tulsa only has 1 tornado report that happened after 1am that day in Welch.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weather-event_2012aprflood

It appears that the SPC database has recorded 130am May 1st as April 30s. Eh.... typo.. moving on :)

Me reading things wrong has been known to happen :) SPC hasn't recorded the tornadoes for May 1st. ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120501_rpts.html

Tulsa only has 1 tornado report that happened after 1am that day in Welch.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weather-event_2012aprflood

The TSA would probably be correct since the SPC reports are only prelim reports.


It appears that the SPC database has recorded 130am May 1st as April 30s. Eh.... typo.. moving on :)

Not a typo. Storm Reports go 7AM to 7AM CDT. :)

Dang, yes. NWS goes 1am-1am and SPC reports goes 7am-7am. OK, now that all that has been settled. Meteorology is complicated enough as it is...sometimes it would be nice if a simple storm report and the date it actually happened was just a simple. Argh

Things still appear to be on track for severe weather to return early next week. May going out with a bang just like it came in (sort of)?

Venture, is there any indication we will have another brutal summer like last year?

Drought conditions are starting to reappear across the state, so if that continues it would definitely help drive more heat over the summer. We'll have to see though. Last summer was crazy so hopefully we stay away from a repeat.

Slight Risk has been added today for all of Western OK.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD OWING TO
THE SEWD DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
LOWER CO VALLEY...AND SUBSEQUENT NWD/NEWD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE INTO MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE
PATTERN...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO WRN
ONTARIO WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING ENEWD INTO QUEBEC.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY TRAILING WSWWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. A
DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WARM FRONT OVER WRN KS SWD TO ALONG THE
TX/OK BORDER AND INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PEAK OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

...MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OWING TO THE RISING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH. HOWEVER...SOME
MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
STRONG DIABATIC WARMING WITHIN AIR MASS W OF DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS
INTO W-CNTRL TX MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED TSTMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND
A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SWD INTO THE ERN TX
PNHDL/WRN OK.

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY /MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J PER
KG/ OWING TO THE COLLOCATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO EML. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /50-60 KT/ WILL RESIDE ACROSS WARM FRONT WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG DRYLINE. IN AREAS WHERE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS WEAKER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL COMPENSATE WITH
SUPERCELLS LIKELY ANYWHERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE AND
BECOME SUSTAINED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN
EXTENSION OF DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
ENHANCED.

Severe storms are on going out west right now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0299_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 655 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF ALTUS
OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST OK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER VORTICITY MAX. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND RATHER STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.

Something unique...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

OKZ004>006-009>011-015-017-260600-
/O.NEW.KOUN.HW.W.0004.120526T0325Z-120526T0600Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-DEWEY-BLAINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT...
WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...TALOGA...WATONGA
1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY.

* TIMING: STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 1 AM.

* WINDS: WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

* IMPACTS:THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DAMAGE TO TREES AND ROOFS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLOWING AROUND OBJECTS THAT ARE NOT TIED
DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BLOW LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO KEEP YOUR VEHICLE ON THE ROAD AND CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST.

Slight Risk far NW today & tomorrow... Slight Risk for much of Central/SW OK for Memorial Day...

TODAY:
...WRN KS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE...BUT WITH LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST. HAVE OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK
S/SWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGLY BUOYANT
AIR MASS IN NEB/KS/OK.

MEMORIAL DAY...
...SRN PLAINS...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY. AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP
FROM WEST TX EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC
TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY AND THE CAP WEAKENS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SEEMS PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND
SOUTHWEST OK. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 29/00Z AT WICHITA
FALLS SHOW MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SHORTWAVE
FEATURES AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STORM COVERAGE. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FROM NEAR LUBBOCK NEWD TO THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA
WHERE THE GFS SHOWS A THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MONDAY EVENING.

Venture -- was that crazy wind from the storms out west falling apart?

Yeah it was. Good ol classic heat burst.

Yeah it was. Good ol classic heat burst.

THAT'S what they're called. I remembered that's a possibility, from the collapsing storms, but I couldn't remember the term. I'll try and commit it to memory this time!

As promised we would see a return to severe weather in the state this week. Slight risks in the state the next 3 days.

TODAY - NW OK:

...CENTRAL PLAINS NNEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON -- FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION -- AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER SYSTEM
EJECTS EWD. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES -- BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM TO AID IN WEAKENING THE CAP -- AND EVENTUALLY
SUPPORTING ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD -- ACCOMPANIED BY
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THE MOST CONCENTRATED
THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST INVOF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS KS/SRN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON. HERE...50 TO 60 KT SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE A FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 20 C OR MORE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED...TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED OVER MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW -- I.E. ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND KS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
LINEARLY ORGANIZED...WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


TOMORROW - CENTRAL TO SW OK:

...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAKER PORTION OF A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION/EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR
ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK.
EVEN WITH RELATIVELY NEBULOUS BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...SUCH
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS READILY PLAUSIBLE...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...GIVEN AMPLE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND SUFFICIENT
NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WHILE LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MODEST...MLCAPE TO 2500-3500 J/KG AND
RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES
INCLUDING HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL INTO EARLY
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TSTM COMPLEX COULD EVOLVE SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND/OR OK EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED
LARGE HAIL THREAT.

TUESDAY - CENTRAL/SW OK

...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS A MODESTLY STRONG/LOW AMPLITUDE BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM
WESTERLIES OTHERWISE PERSIST. DETAILED CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH INTO THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
OK/NORTH TX. WITH HEAT-AIDED WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...SUCH DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST
PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE
AND/OR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OK. LARGE HAIL/POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

Welcome to the end of May with slight risks the next 3 days...again.

TODAY - Slight Risk is mainly from Norman to Ardmore and back to the South & West.
MAIN THREATS - Large Hail & Damaging Wind.


...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... DESPITE WEAKLY RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...A WEAK/SUBTLE VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO CROSS NM AND APPROACH NWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT...FRONTAL ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE --
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

WITH MODERATE WLYS AT MID LEVELS ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS...0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS -- AND
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AS A
SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX DURING THE
EVENING...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD/DEVELOP
EWD/NEWD WITH TIME...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.


TOMORROW - Slight Risk for Central & Western Oklahoma including an Enhanced Risk area from I-35 (including the Metro) to the West.
MAIN THREATS - Very Large Hail and some Damaging Winds. Tornado threat should be low.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/NEBULOUS LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY
TO EXIST ATOP A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN TX AND OK/SOUTHERN KS ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SPECIFIC SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT AN
ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE NEAR/NORTHEAST OF A HEAT-AIDED
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY NEAR A STALLED
BOUNDARY/CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS WESTERN OK/PERHAPS
SOUTHERN KS. HERE...THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE
POTENTIALLY REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG AMID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
WHERE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...AMPLE
INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH MODERATELY STRONG
MID-HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CONGEAL/ORGANIZE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN SPITE OF
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGH BASES /ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/.

TUESDAY - Slight Risk for most of the state except far Eastern areas. Enhances Risk from the OKC Metro area and North of I-40 and West of I-35.
MAIN RISKS - Wide spread damaging winds from storm complexes moving SE with some large hail from earlier storms.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... WHILE GUIDANCE REGARDING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES
VARY...AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN
AMPLIFYING SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO
THE EAST OF 1/ A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/NORTHWEST TX
AND 2/ A SOUTH-TO-NORTH EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND OTHERWISE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
OK/SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR
SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS INTO
WESTERN/NORTHERN OK. GIVEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES WITH
HEIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION...SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY
BE THE CASE PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

SPC has raised the probability risk for tomorrow to 30% hatched. We could be looking at two days of significant MCSs moving through oklahoma...something we haven't seen in a few years.

SPC has raised the probability risk for tomorrow to 30% hatched. We could be looking at two days of significant MCSs moving through oklahoma...something we haven't seen in a few years.

Im stupid , what does MCS mean, and is it bad.

Mesoscale convective system...large complex of storms that normally produce widespread damaging wind.

Mesoscale convective system...large complex of storms that normally produce widespread damaging wind.

+ Sometimes flooding rains particularly when they are repeated for several days in a row.
But we could still use more rain!

Storm over Grady County moving into McCalin is intensifying pretty fast right now. Hail up to 3.54" now detected.

Other severe storm in the Metro Area is just south of the McClain county line between Lindsay and Maysville with hail up to 2.06". Movement is generally some variation to the east. The Grady storm is moving South...the Lindsay storm is moving NE.

Looking pretty impressive from SW OK county.

Watch Extended for South Metro Area.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 310
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
712 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

OKC019-027-049-051-085-087-099-290500-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0310.000000T0000Z-120529T0500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 310 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CLEVELAND GRADY MCCLAIN

IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CARTER GARVIN LOVE
MURRAY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ARDMORE...CHICKASHA...MARIETTA...
MOORE...NORMAN...PAULS VALLEY...PURCELL AND SULPHUR.

New Warning as storms start to build/move more NE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC027-051-087-290200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0285.120529T0112Z-120529T0200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GOLDSBY TO TABLER... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NORMAN...MOORE...STELLA...PURCELL...NEWCASTLE...NO BLE...TUTTLE... SLAUGHTERVILLE...BLANCHARD...LEXINGTON...GOLDSBY.. .ALEX... WASHINGTON...COLE...DIBBLE...ETOWAH...LAKE THUNDERBIRD... STANLEY DRAPER LAKE... MIDDLEBERG AND TABLER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

Another Watch Extension as NC OK has started to explode.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 310
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
OKC017-073-081-083-109-119-125-290500-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0310.000000T0000Z-120529T0500Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 310 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT
IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CANADIAN KINGFISHER LINCOLN
LOGAN OKLAHOMA PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHANDLER...EL RENO...GUTHRIE...
KINGFISHER...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...SHAWNEE...
STILLWATER AND YUKON.