This thread is used to discussion upcoming/ongoing severe weather events through the month of April. March produced 4 tornadoes in the state (as of March 29th) and several reports of large hail up to the size of softballs. April begins the charge into our peak season (May) and activity should start increasing as we move through the month. This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

This is going to be the first month I'll be using a new layout for the informational posts. The recent forum upgrades Pete put in place allow more options for formatting posts, so I'm going to try to use them to clean things up. I'm also hoping this will allow for more information to be posted with a better utilization of the space given. Feedback is welcome on this!



Current Conditions/Severe Weather
State Radar Images (http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29292&p=524444#post524444)
State Satellite Images (http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29292&p=524445#post524445)





Current Conditions






Norman Warning Area Map
Tulsa County Warning Area Map


http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)





Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php





Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight


http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)





Severe Weather Information



Current Watches (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)
Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/validmd.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)



SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*



Day 1 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)
Tornado Outlook
Wind Outlook
Hail Outlook


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif)





Day 2 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)
Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook
Day 3 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)
Day 3 Probabilistic Outlook


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_any.gif)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob.gif)



Days 4 through 8 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)



D (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)ay 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 8


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day4prob.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day5prob.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day6prob.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day7prob.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day8prob.gif



SPC Severe Weather Reports




Today (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif)
Yesterday (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)
Unfiltered Reports Click Here (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif)


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_filtered.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)



SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*


Day 1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)
Day 2 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)
Days 3 to 8 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/imgs/day38otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)






References




COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
NWS Norman Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

State Radar Images

WSR-88D Twin Lakes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)

Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
Base Velocity (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=tlx&loop=yes)


http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0V/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=tlx&loop=yes)



WSR-88D Frederick (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)

Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
Base Velocity (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=FDR&loop=yes)


http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0V/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=FDR&loop=yes)





WSR-88D Vance AFB (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=vnx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no)

Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
Base Velocity (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=VNX&loop=yes)


http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0V/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0V&rid=VNX&loop=yes)



Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars
Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date.

Phased Array Radar (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml) (Next Generation Test Bed)
CASA Radar Deployment (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml) - SW Oklahoma


http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/NWRT/w2_NWRT_Reflectivity_00.50.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/nwrtbase.shtml)
http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/casart_CASA_MergedReflectivityComposite.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/casart.shtml)





Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)

Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min)
Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)


http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_MESH_Max_120min_00.00.png)
http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_MESH_00.00.png)





Multi-Radar Products (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/multi.shtml)

Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min)
Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Composite


http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/MULTI/w2_MULTI_RotTrack_Max_360min_00.00.png)
http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/rtmp/w2_wdssii_J10_MULTI_RotTrack_00.00.png)

State Satellite Images







Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.


http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)





Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.


http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)








Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)
Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.


http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.wv.png)

Severe risk appears to be increasing for Monday, April 2nd. Will go into more detail tomorrow after the morning model runs. This evening's run placed the GFS and NAM pretty close together with the GFS initiating a line of storms over Western OK moving into Central sections by late afternoon/evening. NAM is holding back on storm formation until later in the evening and over Eastern OK. Instability is forecast to be high in both solutions, so we'll need to watch it.

GFS is still coming in, so will role with NAM as it should be ready when I get to it. Only covering Monday & Tuesday in this post. Still some uncertainty on the extent of development, but will just relay what the 12Z model runs show for this morning and we'll go from there.

Monday April 2nd
Expected Start Time: ~ 4PM
Initiation Location: West of a line from Medford > Fairview > Weatherford > Altus
Storm Motion: NE @ 15-25 mph
12Z NAM Discussion: Good fetch of moisture will be over the area with Dewpoints in the 60s. Surface winds out of SE with upper air winds SW will setup for some shear over the area. Helicity looks like it will be fairly low at the start but increase during the evening, as usual. Instability will be high with LI values -7 to -10 in the outlined area. CAPE will be in the neighborhood of 2500-3000 j/kg. CIN will weaken through the day but build strongly behind the line. LCLs will be quite high though, so tornado threat should be mitigated some. Right now looks like severe threat will be there and a general slight risk right now for the western half of OK looks good for large hail and some damaging winds. Tornado threat doesn't look excessive right now at all.

12Z GFS Discussion: Not much difference here. Instability is a bit higher on GFS and LCL levels are quite low. GFS solution has severe threat a bit higher, but we'll see how things evolve.

Tuesday April 3rd
Expected Start Time: ~ 4PM
Initiation Location: Central third of Oklahoma.
Storm Motion: NE @ 15-25 mph
12Z NAM Discussion: Initial storms will push off to the east from overnight and could bring some marginal severe weather early to Central and Eastern OK. Afternoon storms look like they could form in North Central OK down I-35 and through SE OK. Instability won't be quite as high, with CAPE mainly around 1500 and LI's -3 to -5. LCL levels will down a bit, but some dry air will also be punching in from the SW. Some shear present, but not overly impressive numbers. This day really appears to be mostly marginal right now but we'll see how it evolves.

12Z GFS Discussion: Great storm coverage on the GFS except for far SW OK, so move what the NAM has back west a bit. Could be a lot of ongoing convection that will keep things from going crazy. Instability comparable to the NAM. LCLs are low and shear looks good, better north of I-40. Probably a very conditional slight risk day depending on on going convection.

The evening 00Z model runs are increasing the risk for severe weather on Monday (Tuesday isn't completely in yet on GFS). GFS is more widespread in the development a bit more favorable for tornadoes. NAM keeps coverage down a bit, but more than previously forecast, and has an environment not as favorable for tornadoes. It will definitely be a day to stay aware.

Enhanced risk for some large hail tomorrow. Not posting the graphic since we are still on the front page and it is only like 3 posts back. :-)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NM ON MON AND
INTO W TX BY TUE MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A 70+
KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL NOSE INTO SWRN TX BY 00Z. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE...WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MAINTAINING MID 60S
F DEWPOINTS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE MS VALLEY...AND A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THIS RIDGE ACROSS MN
AND WI OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...MODELS DIFFER WITH THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN AND SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
AFFECT MN...IA...WI AND IL.

MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE AFFECTING THE NWRN
GULF COAST AREA WITH MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN.

...MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN OK INTO CNTRL TX...
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MID 60S F DEWPOINTS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND LITTLE CIN BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH A SOMEWHAT MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME
ALOFT...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WRN OK INTO
CNTRL TX. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR...BUT CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES...SLOW MOVING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...SOME
VERY LARGE. LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...AS WILL HEAVY
RAIN.

OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND N OF A SAGGING COLD FRONT FROM NRN
OK INTO KS...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.

Main threat next two days will be hail with a chance for a tornado or two today.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO E TX/SRN AR AND MUCH OF LA...

...SYNOPSIS....
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
WRN U.S. TROUGH BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM BY THE START OF
DAY 1. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY ACROSS NM...GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS A
TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE MIDDLE/NRN ATLANTIC COAST MOVES EWD. A
WEAK MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION...CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NWD INLAND FROM
THE MID-UPPER TX COAST...SHOULD TRACK NEWD TODAY THROUGH E
TX/ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY REACHING THE OZARKS AND NRN MS BY
12Z TUESDAY.

THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WRN TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PHASES
WITH A SEPARATE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS DIFFER
WITH THE EFFECT THE SRN PORTION OF THESE PHASED TROUGHS HAS ACROSS
NRN MN...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AGREE THAT 40-60 METER HEIGHT
FALLS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE E/SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND SWD WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A
NE-SW ORIENTED DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY
LINE WILL THEN EXTEND SWD FROM A TRIPLE POINT OVER SWRN-SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THROUGH WRN OK TO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE WRN
EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER NRN MO...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NWD AND REACH ERN IA/NWRN IL BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
REACHING ERN GA BY 12Z TUESDAY.

...CENTRAL TX/WRN AND CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL AND ERN KS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE WRN
TROUGH OVER SWRN AZ PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE SERN-ERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW TODAY ACROSS
SW-W TX INTO WRN OK AND POSSIBLY SWRN KS BY 03/00Z. WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...DPVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DRY LINE DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUGGEST TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TX NWD THROUGH
WRN OK TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN OK/ADJACENT KS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT NEWD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MERGER INTO CENTRAL KS...WITH MUCH OF
THE KS TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MORE ANAFRONTAL-TYPE
DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /EXCEEDING 8 C PER KM/...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE TX/OK/KS PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS S TO N CENTRAL TX WITH SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY LINE. THIS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE
FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE /EXCEEDING
2 INCH DIAMETER/...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
PULSE-TYPE STORMS INTO KS...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. THE THREAT FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO EXTEND NWD THROUGH WRN OK TO THE
TRIPLE POINT IN SWRN-S CENTRAL KS.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF OK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...WITH
MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN OK INTO W CNTRL TX AT
00Z...WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND RAIN.
MEANWHILE...GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES...BUT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT TRAVELS SEWD LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY
HELP FOCUS STORMS FROM NRN IL INTO OH AND WV LATE.

FROM THE PLAINS DRYLINE EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...A LARGE AREA OF
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE
INSTABILITY AND A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF DIURNAL STORMS...SOME
SEVERE.

...CNTRL OK INTO TX...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL TX.
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY HAVE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...BUT IS
LIKELY TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER IN THE MORNING AS IT OUTRUNS
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND OUTFLOW SURGES EWD BENEATH A CAPPING
INVERSION...APPROXIMATELY E OF A DFW TO SAT LINE. DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG HEATING NEAR THE
DRYLINE FROM SWRN OK INTO W CNTRL TX. DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED HERE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.

OVERNIGHT...AN UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SHOULD OVERSPREAD ERN
OK...TX...AND WRN AR/LA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
LIKELY.

Relevent comic from today's XKCD:
http://xkcd.com/1037/

Tornado watch will be issued soon for central and western ok. Highest threat for tornadoes will be this evening as things cool a bit.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0415.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 022000Z - 022200Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN TX...THE
ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...SWRN KS AND WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MID-AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN
KS INTO ERN NM...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO STALL IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS AHEAD OF A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRYLINE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPENING CUMULUS EXTENDED SWD FROM THE KS
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO
ENTER W TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 80S...AND DEWPOINTS E OF THE BOUNDARY RESIDE IN THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S. THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS LOCATED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /IN EXCESS OF 8 C PER KM IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG.

AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE OVER NERN NM AND THE TX
PANHANDLE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SWLY WINDS OVER W TX...POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANYING AN EWD SURGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
EWD TOWARD THE DRYLINE...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE KS TRIPLE POINT SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE
BY 22-00Z.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ016&warncounty=OKC039&firewxzone=OKZ016&local_place1=Weatherford+OK&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 20 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

ALFALFA BLAINE DEWEY
ELLIS HARPER MAJOR
WOODS WOODWARD

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CADDO COMANCHE COTTON
GREER HARMON JACKSON
KIOWA TILLMAN

IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA

BECKHAM CUSTER ROGER MILLS
WA****A

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN TEXAS

ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTUS...ALVA...ANADARKO...
ARCHER CITY...ARNETT...BUFFALO...CHEROKEE...CHEYENNE...
CHILLICOTHE...CLINTON...CORDELL...CROWELL...ELK CITY...FAIRVIEW...
FREDERICK...HENRIETTA...HOBART...HOLLIS...KNOX CITY...LAWTON...
MANGUM...MUNDAY...QUANAH...SAYRE...SEYMOUR...TALOG A...VERNON...
WALTERS...WATONGA...WEATHERFORD...WICHITA FALLS AND WOODWARD

Things are starting to pick up some. One lone severe storm out in the west right now, but we are seeing storms explode in the Panhandle right at the Triple Point. Additional storms intensifying over western North Texas along the dryline.

HRRR seems to be handling this well and shows these storms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity through tomorrow morning. AM drive looks like a mess right now.

The portion just SW of OKlahoma that will move in in the next 1-2 hours is now severe with 2+ inch hail and a line of 70+ mph winds.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
836 pm cdt mon apr 2 2012


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Beckham county in west central oklahoma...
Greer county in southwestern oklahoma...
Harmon county in southwestern oklahoma...
Jackson county in southwestern oklahoma...
Southwestern roger mills county in west central oklahoma...


* until 915 pm cdt


* at 834 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large damaging
hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds in excess of 65 mph.
These storms were located along a line extending from near
shamrock to madge to 9 miles south of hollis...moving northeast at
45 mph.

Destructive wind threat is going up quickly in Harmon, Greer, Jackson counties.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
915 pm cdt mon apr 2 2012


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Extreme northwestern archer county in north central texas...
Baylor county in north central texas...
Extreme eastern foard county in north central texas...
Greer county in southwestern oklahoma...
Extreme east central hardeman county in north central texas...
Jackson county in southwestern oklahoma...
Kiowa county in southwestern oklahoma...
East central knox county in north central texas...
Tillman county in southwestern oklahoma...
Wichita county in north central texas...
Wilbarger county in north central texas...


* until 1030 pm cdt


* at 911 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large damaging
hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds in excess of 65 mph.
These storms were located along a line extending from near mangum
to eldorado to chillocothe to vera...moving east at 30 mph.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0423.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...TX BIG COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...

VALID 030212Z - 030315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129
CONTINUES.

REPLACEMENT OF PORTIONS OF WW 129 WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED BY
03Z...PRIOR TO 04Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A NEARLY STATIONARY CYCLONE OVER THE
NERN TX PANHANDLE WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ARCING SWD
TOWARDS THE TX BIG COUNTRY. TSTMS RAPIDLY GREW UPSCALE INTO A QLCS
AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTOOK THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE NERN TX PANHANDLE
INTO NWRN TX. LOW-LEVEL SELYS HAVE STRENGTHENED AHEAD OF THIS LINE
TO 30-40 KT PER FDR VWP DATA MAINTAINING A FEED OF LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS WRN OK. FARTHER E...SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN INTO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS S-CNTRL OK IN THE WAKE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE DYING MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS
SUCH...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS MAINLY SWRN OK/NWRN TX. CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LARGELY MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT HAIL...BUT THREATS FOR EMBEDDED SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 04/03/2012

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1027 pm cdt mon apr 2 2012


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Caddo county in southwestern oklahoma...
Comanche county in southwestern oklahoma...
Cotton county in southwestern oklahoma...
Kiowa county in southwestern oklahoma...
Tillman county in southwestern oklahoma...
Extreme southeastern wa****a county in west central oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern wichita county in north central texas...
East central wilbarger county in north central texas...


* until 1130 pm cdt


* at 1021 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar
indicated a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing half
dollar size hail and damaging winds in excess of 65 mph. These
storms were located along a line extending from lone wolf
to tipton to grayback...moving northeast at 45 mph.

Risk today is mainly Central and Eastern OK ahead of the dryline.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN
PLNS...WRN OZARKS...AND LWR MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND
LWR OH VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NM UPR LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E THIS PERIOD AS SYSTEM
REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM MAIN BELT OF THE AMPLIFIED WLYS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE UPR GRT LKS-NERN
U.S. VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM LOW...NOW EXTENDING SWD
THROUGH ERN NM...SHOULD PIVOT ENE ACROSS W TX LATER THIS MORNING AND
THEN TURN NE ACROSS WRN N TX AND WRN OK THIS AFTN.

FARTHER NE...SATELLITE AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT DISTURBANCE IN PART
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE MCS OVER E TX...AR...AND LA YESTERDAY NOW
EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM SW MO THROUGH NE AR TO CSTL MS. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING A CNTRL IL...MIDDLE
TN...FL PANHANDLE LINE BY EVE.

AT LWR LVLS...QSTNRY SFC LOW THAT HAD BEEN PRESENT OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE HAS PARTLY FILLED AS A RESULT OF /1/ SWD MOVEMENT OF POLAR
AIR FROM KS-NEB...AND /2/ WIDESPREAD OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN PLNS-LWR MS VLY. AN ELONGATED LOW LVL CIRCULATION
WILL...NEVERTHELESS...LIKELY PERSIST TODAY OVER NW TX...NEAR
INTERSECTION OF THE POLAR COLD FRONT WITH MERGED DRY LINE-PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THIS CIRCULATION OR WEAK LOW SHOULD DRIFT NE TOWARD THE
OK-KS BORDER BY EVE...AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED NM VORT LOBE.

FARTHER NE...RESIDUAL TRIPLE POINT LOW NOW IN SE IA SHOULD EDGE ESE
INTO IL-IND LATER TODAY AS THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN
THE NRN STREAM /OVER THE UPR GRT LKS/ ENHANCES WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW
OVER THE OH VLY. THIS WILL ALLOW EXISTING STNRY FRONT EXTENDING E
FROM THE LOW TO ADVANCE ENEWD AS WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF
IND...OH...AND KY.

THE VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT/DRYLINE OVER THE SRN PLNS...AND
THE LOW/WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VLY...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR
STRONG TO SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TNGT.

...SRN PLNS INTO LWR MS VLY TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS AND STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE
WRN OZARKS/LWR MS VLY AS VORT LOBE ROTATING NNE AROUND ERN SIDE OF
NM UPR LOW...AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKER DISTURBANCES...ENHANCE ASCENT
ACROSS REGION.

GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT MCSS HAVE SOMEWHAT STABILIZED REGION N OF THE
RED RIVER...THE STRONGEST DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER CNTRL AND N TX. COMBINATION OF INCREASING ASCENT IN
MODERATELY-SHEARED...RICHLY MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH
DEEP/PERSISTENT EML SHOULD YIELD STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO
GENERALIZE OVER SPACE AND TIME...AND EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LIMITS PREDICTABILITY OF PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE/STORM
TYPE. BUT SETUP APPEARS AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
SUPERCELLS ALSO CAPABLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE
INFLOW/DEGREE OF BUOYANCY. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR
MORE MCSS THIS EVENING. ONE OF THESE COULD BECOME RATHER LARGE AND
MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE TOWARD THE HOUSTON/BEAUMONT AREA TOWARD WED
MORNING...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR SVR WEATHER. A MORE
LIMITED...THOUGH NON-ZERO...RISK FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST IN MUCH
OF OK THROUGH EARLY TNGT...WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE GREATER...BUT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY MORE LIMITED THAN IN TX.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0428.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031336Z - 031500Z

STRENGTHENING CONVECTION/INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL SUGGEST THAT WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N TX...WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT PIVOTING
NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND N TX AROUND THE SERN FRINGE OF THE SRN
ROCKIES UPPER LOW. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT -- WHICH HAS PUSHED EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX
AND NOW LIES ROUGHLY N-S FROM JUST W OF ABI TO JUST E OF JCT. E OF
THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...A SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS INDICATED...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PER LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
LIKELY TO HINDER THE INITIATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL...MORNING FWD /FORT WORTH TX/ RAOB REVEALS STEEP LAPSE
RATES/MODERATE CAPE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH AMPLE
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG WITH LIMITED WIND GUST POTENTIAL --
POTENTIAL WHICH COULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING PRESUMING LOW
CLOUD EROSION ALLOWING HEATING TO COMMENCE.

..GOSS.. 04/03/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

Tornadoes in D/FW area as we speak. Will see what breaks this afternoon here.

Tornadoes in D/FW area as we speak. Will see what breaks this afternoon here.

Just got off the phone with my sister and parents down there. Already some reports of significant damage in the SE suburbs and a cell producing a tornado is moving over the DFW Airport area.

Our 'baby', now 19, is in school just sw of DT Dallas. He texted a bit ago they were headed to safe rooms for a bit. Waiting to hear more. His reception isn't all that great even above ground.


From yahoo, about 30 minutes ago:


Massive twin twisters have touched down near Dallas and Fort Worth this afternoon, crushing homes and sending thousands of North Texans scrambling to take cover.

Reports of injuries were not immediately known, but the National Weather Service declared the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area to be under a "tornado emergency." Warnings for most counties are still active.

Sirens were going off in downtown Dallas and Fort Worth. Schools across the area were huddling children in hallways. Passengers at DFW International Airport were being rushed to safe areas at 1:50 p.m. CT.

"This is as serious of a tornado we've seen in years," said CBS 11 meteorologist Larry Mowry.
Television news helicopters broadcast images of the twisters. Spotters on the ground estimated the tornadoes to be 1/2-mile wide. The first tornado, first spotted about 20 miles south of Fort Worth, was believed to be on the ground for 30 minutes.

That twister was captured on video near Arlington. KXAS (NBC 5) published the raw video. (http://www.nbcdfw.com/video/#!/weather/stories/Raw-Video--Tornado-in-Arlington/145972585)

Storm spotters were reporting widespread major damage of homes and other buildings in communities south of Fort Worth.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/dallas/tornadoes-cause-massive-damage-across-dallas-fort-worth-184640541.html

Watching the videos and it's amazing. Tossing semi trailers around like they are toys

Tornadoes in D/FW area as we speak. Will see what breaks this afternoon here.

Suspect that the extensive rainfall and persistent cloud cover from the early storms here in OK have worked to keep the atmosphere cool enough such that the tornadic/severe threat here in central OK is very small. Appears the early cloudcover in N. Texas eroded/burned off early morning, allowing for lots of warming, and that really started the pot boiling with lots of convection and moisture for lots of surface-based storms to erupt very quickly. Don't know if anyone else saw it, but a Dallas TV station had a radar image on their website of the twin supercells over Dallas along with a tremendous hook echo signature on one of the storms..

I watched about an 1 ½ hours of live local Dallas TV tornado coverage.
Our local TV tornado coverage is so much better that it almost makes what they do on Dallas TV look like amateurs.

Yeah, but in fairness to them, they get far less practice at doing it.

I watched about an 1 ½ hours of live local Dallas TV tornado coverage.
Our local TV tornado coverage is so much better that it almost makes what they do on Dallas TV look like amateurs.

A lot of our meterologists make what is happening more exciting than it really is and I don't mean that in a good way.

I watched about an 1 ½ hours of live local Dallas TV tornado coverage.
Our local TV tornado coverage is so much better that it almost makes what they do on Dallas TV look like amateurs.

FWIW I have a high school buddy that works for WFAA, the local ABC affiliate down there, as a production engineer. During the May 2011 outbreak of storms they ran nonstop weather coverage due to several tornadoes and power flashes being reported in the city of Dallas. The next day they received something like 2,000 angry emails from people pissed they they interrupted the season finale of some show (Desperate Housewives?) to tell them "it was raining." So I think that tells you the priorities of people in DFW in regards to weather coverage.

Yeah, but in fairness to them, they get far less practice at doing it.

They don’t devote anything close to the time or resources (budget) that the OKC TV stations (4-5-9) do.
As a result the safety knowledge among DFW residents is much lower in the DFW area.

A lot of our meterologists make what is happening more exciting than it really is and I don't mean that in a good way.

Sometimes that’s true but unfortunately it’s sometimes what it takes to motivate people to take the situation seriously when its really needed.

I have been visiting the DFW Metroplex during tornado events and it is very frustrating. Today, while there were two large supercells with textbook hook echoes southwest of downtown Dallas and south of downtown Dallas, WFAA had its helicopter off in the middle of nowhere looking for damage. As if that wasn't bad enough, they were taking video live from the chopper of grassy fields and parking lots instead of the meteorologist standing in front of a chroma key radar image tracking both cells alternately street by street and telling residents how best to protect themselves.

Overhyped at it is, we have it comparatively good here in central Oklahoma when it comes to tornado coverage.

A lot of our meterologists make what is happening more exciting than it really is and I don't mean that in a good way.


I'd rather take them than anyone else though.

I was flipping around and saw that Crazy Mike has the lows down in the mid 40's the next two nights, and the other station didn't have anything lower than low 50's. In the grand scheme of things its not that big of a difference, but it makes me wonder how certain stations get "extreme" with their forecasts.

A bit more settled across the Southern Plains today. This afternoon though could see popup storms thanks to daytime heating and upper air instability. Storms should start to develop between 3 and 5pm today and should be wrapped up by 11pm. Main risk today will be some marginally severe hail and some gusty winds.

Going to look at the last 3 GFS model runs here to just give a highlight to upcoming days that have the potential for severe weather...

00Z GFS
Friday 4/6: SW OK
Saturday 4/7: SW, Central, Eastern OK
Sunday 4/8: SW, Central, and Eastern OK
Monday 4/9: Southern OK
Thursday 4/19: Central third

006Z GFS
Friday 4/6: Western OK
Saturday 4/7: SW, Central, NE OK

012Z GFS
Saturday 4/7: SW, Central, NE OK
Monday 4/9: Southern 2/3rds of OK

Some storms moving into Central OK. Some gusty winds and half inch hail possible.

Severe risk today will be limited to mostly south of I-40. Some early morning storms are continuing ahead of a boundary in northern OK. Some small hail with those. A better chance of severe weather on Monday and again on Thursday.

Venture...What is the outlook for our kiddos hunting eggs tomorrow afternoon?

First off...welcome to the Plains in Spring. That sums up the week. LOL

SPC Outlook Overview
Monday: Slight Risk with enhanced area for large damaging hail. Most of Oklahoma is covered by this expect for the NE Quarter of the state and Western Panhandle.

Tuesday: Slight Risk Panhandle and Western 2 tiers of counties. Main risk damaging wind and hail.

Thursday: Risk area for most of the body of Oklahoma. Main risk large hail and tornadoes with supercells along dryline.

Saturday: Risk area for most of the body of Oklahoma, again. Similar story to Thursday with tornadoes and hail being main risks.

I have seen 2 local OKC TV MET’s report that we have a chance for a significant severe weather event next week end.

OKC is under a slight risk of Severe weather tomorrow w
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

I have seen 2 local OKC TV MET’s report that we have a chance for a significant severe weather event next week end.

Well, the SPC is confident enough to highlight Thursday and Saturday this far in advance. That usually says something.

Well, the SPC is confident enough to highlight Thursday and Saturday this far in advance. That usually says something.

I've seen a few weather types on Twitter tweet about advanced maps for Thursday and for folks to get their chasing gear ready.....

Mike Morgan indicated tonight that Sunday could be a very sigficant day of very serious weather

Latest model data still coming in (GFS is only out to day 3 so far)...

Monday Outlook

Slight Risk west of a line from Ponca City to Okmulgee to McAlester to Hugo.
Main Risk: Very Large Hail (tennis ball or larger) transitioning to Damaging Winds as storms move South and East.
Initiation: NW Oklahoma/NE TX PH around mid Afternoon.
Storm Movement: SE @ 20-30 mph (if a complex forms this could speed up considerably)
Discussion: Storms will form up in the early/mid afternoon over the far NW portions of OK. Coverage will gradually expand and intensities will increase. Storms will reach the Red River by 1AM. Locally heavy rain is likely. Very large hail is probably with early storms until threats transitions to mostly wind damage.

Tuesday/Wednesday Outlook
Slight Risk of severe weather over far Southwest OK, especially Tuesday. General risk of storms else where during the afternoon/evening. Marginally severe hail and strong winds possible.

Thursday Outlook
Slight Risk of severe weather mainly over far Western OK. Main risk is for tornadoes, hail and wind.

Following Outlooks are from the 18Z GFS since it isn't available as of this writing.

Friday Outlook

Slight risk appears likely over much of Oklahoma west of I-35. Large hail and tornadoes will be main threat. This would include most of Central OK and the OKC metro area in this risk area.

Extended Days

Saturday looks potentially bumpy as well. Much of the same area as Friday just a hair further to the east. Threat continues in Sunday some until everything finally pushes out. More updates as we get closer. Keep in mind any pre-existing activity can throw off the next day's chances so things can change pretty quickly.

SPC outlooks aren't that far off from what I mentioned last night. They initially came out with a Moderate Risk for today, but the morning forecast team pulled it back about an hour ago. Will not post the graphics here since they are available on the first page of this thread in a more organized manner. :-)

SPC Outlook Overview

Monday/Today - Slight risk most of the state except eastern OK. Large damaging hail main threat.
Tuesday - Slight Risk far Western OK and the PH. Hail & Wind main threat.
Wednesday - Slight Risk Panhandles.
Thursday/Friday/Saturday - Severe Weather Risk Central & West Thursday and Friday, most of OK on Saturday.

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0748 am cdt mon apr 09 2012

valid 091300z - 101200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms this afternoon through tonight
for wrn ok and nw tx...

...wrn ok/nw tx area through tonight...
A diffuse front extends from nrn ok into sw ks...with boundary layer
dewpoints of 56-60 f representative of the tx/ok warm sector n of
i-10. Aloft...the large scale ridge extends from far w tx nnwwd to
the nrn rockies...though an embedded/subtle speed max is expected to
crest the ridge in co today and move sewd over ok tonight. Daytime
heating/mixing will help consolidate a dryline across the
central/ern tx panhandle this afternoon. The primary focus for
thunderstorm development will be the dryline/front in advance of the
subtle speed max this afternoon...with storms expected to spread
sewd across wrn/central ok and nw tx overnight.

Modified forecast and observed soundings support afternoon mlcape
values near 1500 j/kg as a result of the modest low-level moisture
beneath midlevel lapse rates of 8.5 c/km. Meanwhile...vertical
shear profiles are forecast to be favorable for ssewd-moving
supercells with nwly effective-bulk shear of 35-45 kt. Low-level
shear will be strongest invof the surface front across nw ok this
afternoon...where effective srh could approach 200 m2/s2.

The general scenario is for storms to form around 21z near the
dryline/front intersection and then spread sewd through the evening.
Discrete supercells will be possible with the initial
development...with an attendant risk for very large hail and a
couple of tornadoes. Later this evening into tonight...convection
will tend to grow upscale into a cluster or two...aided by a 30 kt
sswly llj and associated warm advection. The risk for at least
isolated large hail and damaging winds will persist well into

Mesoscale Discussion 478< Previous MD (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0477.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0478.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 478
< Previous MD


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/SWRN KS/WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091854Z - 092030Z

SLOWLY INCREASING SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WILL LIKELY WARRANT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
INTO WRN OK...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES EXPANDING FARTHER TO
THE W ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...APPRECIABLE HEATING
CONTINUES...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES NOW INDICATING ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE OVER THE ERN PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT WRN OK/SWRN KS
E OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK DRYLINE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID CLOUD DECK LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ALOFT NOW SPREADING INTO THIS AREA.
THUS...EXPECT THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
IMMINENT -- POSSIBLY ARISING FROM WITHIN A NEW CU FIELD NOW
DEVELOPING OVER BEAVER CO OK/CLARK CO KS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
POTENTIAL -- IS APPARENT NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM
FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CLOUDS -- AND THUS A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER --
STILL PERSISTENT ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS...THE CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL
IS FAIRLY NARROW ATTM. S OF THE FRONT...THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD
INTO WRN OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

Tornado watch is up now for the northwest quarter of oklahoma until 9pm.

Now to figure out how to copy/paste on my android. Lol

Severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for the southwest quarter of the state.

.a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 430 pm
cdt for northeastern harper and northwestern woods counties...

At 400 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm capable of producing half dollar size hail and
damaging winds in excess of 65 mph. This storm was located near
selman...moving east at 20 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Selman.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with no warning. Move
immediately to a storm shelter or sturdy building if a tornado
approaches.

Just two severe storms left out there right now. One cell in Woodward County is trying to pulse up some.

Fairly quiet day for the state today. Could have one or two severe storms impact far SW OK today. Later this evening and overnight might see a couple strong to severe storms form over Western OK and move through Central OK. Nothing to major right now, but the new 12Z NAM is tossing in the risk for some borderline severe stuff. HRRR keeps things dry through evening.

Whats it looking like for Friday evening? I have plans that evening and need to know what were looking at in terms of severe potential in order to know If i need to cancel and stay home or not. also Whats it looking like in terms of severe intensity for Saturday and Sunday? Thanks !!

Hey, Venture, just saw a Rick Mitchell tweet saying that a couple of the tornadoes from yesterday were actually anti-cylonic. Is that just a weird aberration, or does it imply some unusual structure or shear in those storms?

Just wondering....thx.

-David

Hey, Venture, just saw a Rick Mitchell tweet saying that a couple of the tornadoes from yesterday were actually anti-cylonic. Is that just a weird aberration, or does it imply some unusual structure or shear in those storms?

Just wondering....thx.

-David
From my OU meteorology lab class of over 30 years ago……..
At the time they said that about 2% of all Tornadoes in the northern hemisphere turned clock wise.

Hey...

Seeing a couple of met types on Twitter saying things are really shaping up in a bad way for late week/Friday through Sunday severe-storm wise. Any of our resident gurus have any thoughts on how things are shaping up?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

FRI APR 13 AND SAT APR 14.
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALSO PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.