View Full Version : Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - September/October 2011



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venture
09-06-2011, 05:13 PM
This thread will be used to discussion upcoming/ongoing severe weather events through the months of September and October. As we transition into Fall, Oklahoma typically experiences a secondary severe weather/tornado season. This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

_________Norman Warning Area Map __________________ Tulsa County Warning Area Map____
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png
Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | Blizzard Warning | Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Winter Storm Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Freezing Rain Advisory | Heavy Snow Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement | Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks

________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 _________________ Day 3 ___________ Days 4 through 8 ___
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob_small.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 ______________ Days 3 to 8 _____
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/day3-8fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)

*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

CoD NEXRAD Radar Mosaic
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif

CoD Visible Satellite Image (will appear blank overnight)
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports (Today and Yesterday)
________ Today _____________ Yesterday _____
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)

Useful Links
COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
NWS Norman Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/

venture
09-06-2011, 05:29 PM
Initial outlook taking us through the 21st of the month...

Late Wednesday into Thursday - Chance of rain/storms West and Southwest OK.
Sunday 11th - Chance of showers NE.
Wednesday 14th - Chance of rain/storms NW half of Oklahoma.
Thursday 15th - Chance of rain/storms Western OK.
Friday 16th - Slight chance of rain, Northern & Western OK.

Instability looks to start increasing as we go further out in the month, so storm chances will increase instead of just rain. No major severe weather producers showing up just yet.

Thunder
09-06-2011, 05:33 PM
Thanks, Venture!

I'm going to call it that we will see no tornado in Oklahoma...at least not within the metro area. It will probably be the east, east, east, and more of the eastern half. Its all about the east this year. LOL

BG918
09-06-2011, 05:38 PM
Any rain is welcome but it looks like it will be dry for at least the next week over most of the state. There is always the potential that tropical moisture could play a role in the coming weeks. Hoping for more of an active pattern as we transition to fall.

Bunty
09-06-2011, 09:20 PM
If you want a radar map that isn't a mess of ground clutter, then go to this interactive one here: http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMapFull.aspx

Thunder
09-06-2011, 09:52 PM
Bunty, don't think it can be linked to appear directly on here. Nothing wrong with the radar images that Venture posted up above. Most of us know what ground clutter is and can pinpoint the difference between that and storm cells. What I'm saying here, Bunty, is that Venture is one of very few heroes to me and that I look up to him (don't think he realize that).

venture
09-07-2011, 09:45 AM
If you want a radar map that isn't a mess of ground clutter, then go to this interactive one here: http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMapFull.aspx

There are pluses and minuses to a map like that. The map is definitely cleaner looking, but you don't get near the accurate detail of what is going on. A map like that typically has any returns under 20 dbz filtered out. So this is going to remove any ability to see features like fronts and outflow boundaries. Of course not everyone wants the higher level of detail, but for the sake of these threads I always will go with a more detail image.

Bunty
09-07-2011, 12:13 PM
To me, the ground clutter can cover up so much you get ZERO detail. I'll take the intellicast radar map any time over this mess of a map: http://stillwaterweather.com/ridge.html Of course, I'm simply one of those who goes for less detail. Of course, if I want I can go to more detailed radar maps.

Bunty
09-07-2011, 12:34 PM
Bunty, don't think it can be linked to appear directly on here. Nothing wrong with the radar images that Venture posted up above. Most of us know what ground clutter is and can pinpoint the difference between that and storm cells. What I'm saying here, Bunty, is that Venture is one of very few heroes to me and that I look up to him (don't think he realize that).

So I wasn't trying to be critical or negative of Venture's fine contributions, just pointing people to a prettier radar map to look at. Besides, not all of us are highly expert about interpreting various weather radar images.

venture
09-10-2011, 07:17 AM
Potential seems to be going up for some well needed rain. Severe weather risk looks low to absent almost every day. The "Low to Near Slight" days are ones with a bit more instability, but things shouldn't reach severe limits except in a rare occasion. Temps look very manageable, but of course that part of the forecast could be swayed a lot by any occurring precip or lack thereof.

Today 10th - Chance mostly Northeast OK. Mild 70s to 80s. Severe Risk: Very low.
Sunday 11th - Mostly dry. 70s to 80s. Severe Risk: None.
Monday 12th - Dry. 80s to low 90s. Severe Risk: None.
Tues 13th - Slight chance Northern & Western OK. Upper 70s north, mid 90s southwest. Severe Risk: Very low.
Weds 14th - Light to moderate rain Northern OK, chance SW. 70s north, near 90 south. Severe Risk: Low.
Thurs 15th - Light to moderate rain statewide. Upper 50s north to upper 70s south. Severe Risk: Low to near Slight.
Friday 16th - Light rain east, slight chance elsewhere. 60s and 70s. Severe Risk: Very low.
Saturday 17th - Chance statewide. 70s and 80s. Severe Risk: Low to near Slight.
Sunday 18th - Chance for widespread moderate rain statewide. 70s to near 80 south. Severe Risk: Low to near Slight.
Monday 19th - Slight chance Southern/Southeast OK. 70s north, 80s south. Severe Risk: Very low.
Tuesday 20th - Dry. 70s and 80s. Severe Risk: None.
Wednesday 21st - Dry. 70s and 80s. Severe Risk: None.
Thursday 22nd - Dry. 60s Northeast to near 80 southwest. Severe Risk: None.
Friday 23rd - Dry. Mid 60s east, near 80 west. Severe Risk: None.
Saturday 24th - Dry. Mid 60s east, near 80 west. Severe Risk: None.
Sunday 25th - Dry. 70s and 80s. Severe Risk: None.

kevinpate
09-10-2011, 07:51 AM
Imagine that. It might rain when the fair comes to town. <VBG>

venture
09-10-2011, 08:00 AM
Imagine that. It might rain when the fair comes to town. <VBG>

Shhh. Don't let it know that.

Even though it is nice that it is usually a guarantee to rain during the fair. LOL

Thunder
09-10-2011, 08:04 AM
It will always rain a lot during the Great State Fair of Oklahoma.

venture
09-13-2011, 08:46 AM
Still look to be on tap for rain started this week. Chances extend through early next week. Last day of 100+...hopefully for the year.

Side note, looks like NWS Norman has joined the other offices already doing this and allowing people to take the spotter training online.

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23

It will probably take a couple hours to complete, but it is a great (and free) tool to expand understanding of weather.

HewenttoJared
09-13-2011, 10:17 AM
To me, the ground clutter can cover up so much you get ZERO detail. I'll take the intellicast radar map any time over this mess of a map: http://stillwaterweather.com/ridge.html Of course, I'm simply one of those who goes for less detail. Of course, if I want I can go to more detailed radar maps.
It's probably a matter of training your eyes to process through the clutter. Takes time.

Bunty
09-13-2011, 10:44 AM
The 100s came back Monday. Some people thought or hoped they would never come back for the rest of the year. I wonder if they will return again after this soon upcoming cool spell? As long as September days go on with all time record highs in the 100s in the record books, I wouldn't bet against it.

Bunty
09-13-2011, 11:04 PM
Here's a map of the expected 5 day precipitation totals expected in the country. Looks like fairly attractive amounts of rain are in store for most of Oklahoma at least compared to what little we have been generally getting all summer long. It looks like a dark spot between Stillwater and Cushing may get 1.6" for some of the heaviest. A somewhat larger spot in southwestern Oklahoma will also get 1.6". The western tip of the panhandle may get a good amount. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

Maynard
09-13-2011, 11:12 PM
It's probably a matter of training your eyes to process through the clutter. Takes time.

Anomalous propagation can be fun.

Thunder
09-13-2011, 11:25 PM
Hi Maynard, what do you think of the cooler weather? Ready for a Blizzard?

Maynard
09-13-2011, 11:29 PM
Hi Maynard, what do you think of the cooler weather? Ready for a Blizzard?

http://www.erix138.com/source/image/old-man-winter-erik-weems.jpg

Thunder
09-13-2011, 11:37 PM
I see you are quite excited. We should have a thread where all members post their best pictures of snowmen, snowwomen, and snowanimal. :-)

Bunty
09-14-2011, 10:28 AM
Yeah, it's about that time of year when we switch from global warming to global cooling.

venture
09-14-2011, 06:20 PM
OUN's afternoon discussion...


DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH COOL AND DRY AIR INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOIST AIR AT MID-LEVELS WILL BE FORCED OVER THIS COOL AIR
MASS. THE RESULTING LIFT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE QUANTITY
OF RAINFALL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COOL...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL
RAIN...WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES PERHAPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
WET-BULB VALUES. THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER MOST OF OUR AREA...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW 70S IN THE SOUTH. IF THERE IS MORE RAIN THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES MAY STAY EVEN LOWER. THE NAM CONTINUES
TO SHOW LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS...OF COURSE...IS IMPROBABLE...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

AFTER TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES BECOME MUCH MORE HIT-AND-MISS. LOW-
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY
ZONAL WITH UNFORECASTABLE SMALL WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS MEANS LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

bandnerd
09-14-2011, 06:53 PM
Has anyone else noticed that it seems, at least in the last few years, that there is no gradual switch from one season to the next, but instead it's like someone flips the switch and BAM! It's fall? BAM! It's winter?

I am not complaining in any way about cooler temperatures. The window unit in my classroom caused the electrical strip to get so hot there for a few days it would shut itself off around 2pm, leaving me with what little air would escape the vents in the ceiling from the "chillers" outside. I much prefer these days where I never even have to turn that noisy thing on! Bring on fall!

Achilleslastand
09-14-2011, 07:00 PM
OUN's afternoon discussion...


DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH COOL AND DRY AIR INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOIST AIR AT MID-LEVELS WILL BE FORCED OVER THIS COOL AIR
MASS. THE RESULTING LIFT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE QUANTITY
OF RAINFALL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COOL...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL
RAIN...WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES PERHAPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
WET-BULB VALUES. THIS MEANS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER MOST OF OUR AREA...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW 70S IN THE SOUTH. IF THERE IS MORE RAIN THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES MAY STAY EVEN LOWER. THE NAM CONTINUES
TO SHOW LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS...OF COURSE...IS IMPROBABLE...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

AFTER TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES BECOME MUCH MORE HIT-AND-MISS. LOW-
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINLY
ZONAL WITH UNFORECASTABLE SMALL WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS MEANS LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Just on the weather last night they said heavy rainfall was possible. I guess this was incorrect and now were supposed to be getting light rain?

Thunder
09-14-2011, 07:07 PM
That is Oklahoma. I have never been able to experience a gradual switch. Its a sudden and sharp change day-to-day.

We could have highs in the 20s on Christmas Day with a foot of snow. Then on the 26th, highs in the 60s with barely a trace of snow left.

bandnerd
09-14-2011, 07:17 PM
I remember once, in southern OK where I grew up, decorating a Christmas tree in shorts because it was over 80. I feel like we had some good years when I was in college, in the early 2000s, where the seasons didn't just slap you in the face with their arrival. It certainly could have something to do with me paying more attention now that I have a home to care for, and am simply more aware with age; however, it would be interesting to pull up daily temps from those years and compare.

Thunder
09-14-2011, 07:28 PM
Bandnerd, I am sure that Chief Meteorologist of OKCTalk.com, Venture, can direct you to the location where the TV guys often have access to pull up past info to compare that they often show us.

bandnerd
09-14-2011, 07:41 PM
I bet he can, which is a large part of why I said what I did.

venture
09-15-2011, 12:14 PM
Well the free water is continuing in several areas, but very light. Main area is mostly North and West of I-44 and then West of I-35. Couple heavier pockets in Western, SW , and South Central Oklahoma right now. Mainly light drizzle/showers elsewhere - if you are even getting anything. So far still bone dry down here, but should change in the next few hours.

Bandnerd one site you can use is this page on NWS Norman's site: http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=oun

However, the more extensive data can be requested from one of the sites listed here (not all of them are free):
http://www.weather.gov/climate/climate_resources.php?wfo=oun

bandnerd
09-15-2011, 06:29 PM
Thanks, Venture! I'll have to look those over sometime.

Thunder
09-15-2011, 07:06 PM
Thanks, Venture! I'll have to look those over sometime.

OKCTalk.com Chief Meteorologist :-)

venture
09-16-2011, 11:58 AM
Light to moderate rain continues...will get much more isolated in Central/Western OK through the afternoon. Still...beats sunny and 110, IMO anyway. Tomorrow...severe weather risk returns tomorrow.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN
U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXPANSIVE CP
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ERN U.S. WHILE A LEE
TROUGH BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE LEE TROUGH A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH OK AND KS WITH A DRYLINE OR PACIFIC
FRONT BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/KS INTO
THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SHIFT NWD THROUGH OK
INTO SRN KS AS SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS AND THE LEE CYCLONE AND SLY
FLOW STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WLY FLOW
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.
NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH NWD EXPANDING WARM
SECTOR BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH DIABATIC
WARMING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE OR PACIFIC FRONT...POSSIBLY
AIDED BY VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. FLOW
ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH 20-30 KT AT 500
MB...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL UNDERGO A MODEST INCREASE AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES SUPPORTING 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH
AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HODOGRAPHS WILL UNDERGO SOME ENHANCEMENT TOWARD EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHS...BUT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTING THE WINDOW FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
SHOULD REMAIN SMALL.

..DIAL.. 09/16/2011

venture
09-16-2011, 12:19 PM
Good indication on how much rain we've received so far...unfortunately doesn't do much when we are 15 to 20 inches below what we need.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.72hr.png

Achilleslastand
09-16-2011, 01:31 PM
It was coming down in buckets around 130pm around the NW 50th and Meridian area. Im thinking it was more then an inch.

USG'60
09-16-2011, 02:36 PM
I have an inch at 23rd and May.

Thunder
09-16-2011, 03:16 PM
Venture, it may not do much for the drought deeper into the soil, but it is a much needed short-term relief for the grasses, etc, as the amount of the rain we are receiving now will easily turn them all green.

venture
09-16-2011, 11:29 PM
Venture, it may not do much for the drought deeper into the soil, but it is a much needed short-term relief for the grasses, etc, as the amount of the rain we are receiving now will easily turn them all green.

Just for them to go dormant again in a month for winter. The grass just needs to stay dormant...not really my main concern. Getting ground water replenished and making sure the drought doesn't get worse into next year is priority. In sort...screw the grass. :-P

Thunder
09-16-2011, 11:33 PM
Yeah, it is that time of year again where everything turns beautiful (fall colors) to ugly in a sudden way. We can only hope for decent snow to keep things lively. Man, when I was younger, the time was so slow. Now that I am older, the time just seem to go by faster and faster. Its a repeated cycle we all go through year after year dealing with the same changes back 'n forth.

venture
09-17-2011, 10:39 AM
Severe weather threat is up a bit today. The slight risk has been expanded east some and includes the OKC metro area. It now runs from near Ponca City to Norman to Duncan. Tornado threat also looks a bit better than expected, mainly in NW Oklahoma. Day 2 discussion is also below due to the possible upgrade to a Slight Risk for much of Oklahoma.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SUN. BAND OF ENHANCED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN RCKYS ENE ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE PLNS WILL
REMAIN THE MAIN UPR JET OF NOTE AS FAR AS SVR TSTMS ARE CONCERNED.

AT LWR LVLS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CO
RCKYS...TIED LARGELY TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPR JET...SHOULD REMAIN
QSTNRY OR DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE
ANTECEDENT SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO WITHDRAW TO THE E/NE.

...SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
IMPULSES IN THE SRN STREAM JET WILL ONCE AGAIN MODULATE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING AND LLJ
INFLUENCES...OVER THE SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD. TSTMS WITH LEAD IMPULSE
NOW IN ERN KS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS THAT DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES EWD INTO MO. BY LATE THIS AFTN...SFC HEATING IN SE
QUADRANT OF SW KS SFC LOW...AND THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW
OVER NE NM/SE CO...SHOULD SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF NEW STORMS OVER
PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL KS AND NW OK.

CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z RAOB DATA...ESPECIALLY 850 MB
DEWPOINTS OF 17-18C AT BOTH MAF AND AMA... SUGGEST THAT SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OK AND SW/S
CNTRL KS TODAY. COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS ALONG
AND N OF SRN STREAM JET...AMPLE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER
KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. WITH 25-30 KT
WLY MID LVL FLOW...SETUP SHOULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR PERSISTENT BACKED LOW LVL WINDS E/SE OF SW KS
SFC LOW. MORE WIDELY SCTD STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE
AFTN SW ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTO W CNTRL AND PERHAPS SW TX.

THE STORMS IN WRN/NRN OK AND SRN KS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO
MCSS TNGT/EARLY SUN AS MOIST SSWLY LLJ OVER REGION STRENGTHENS BOTH
DIURNALLY...AND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER UT/CO. EMBEDDED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SPORADIC HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED
BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO.

...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS /MAINLY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...WHILE MOISTURE OTHERWISE SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AHEAD OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT /WITH THIS FRONT GRADUALLY
OVERTAKING THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS OK AND NORTHWEST TX/. WHILE
EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION PROVIDES A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...AMPLE
PRE-COLD FRONTAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK/TX INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS. SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN /BUT LIKELY MUCH WEAKER/ ACROSS
THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY BE
PERSISTENT.

WHILE AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
FORM OF WIND AND HAIL MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...VERTICAL
SHEAR /GENERALLY 25-30 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK GIVEN
THAT THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN MODEST SHEAR...WEAKENING MASS
CONVERGENCE WITH TIME...AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION/EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...WILL DEFER TO
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR REEVALUATION OF A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK FOR
AREAS SUCH AS OK/NORTHWEST TX.

..GUYER.. 09/17/2011

Thunder
09-17-2011, 11:44 AM
http://www.randall.k12.wi.us/gifs/tornado.gif Thank you! This is so awesomely exciting! WOW!!! http://www.randall.k12.wi.us/gifs/tornado.gif

venture
09-17-2011, 11:52 AM
Latest HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011091715&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

Looks like initiation around 3 to 5 PM in NW OK. Doesn't appear the strongest storms will effect the Metro area, but could see some of the left over rain this evening/tonight.

venture
09-17-2011, 01:56 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0850_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ENID OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR
INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE/CONFLUENCE ZONE ARCING EWD ACROSS FAR ERN
PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE...AND WNW-ESE ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BNDRY/WARM FRONT OVER NRN OK. IN THIS AREA...COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPR 60S F/...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER SW KS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE
REGION. AREA VWP DATA AND FCST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND.
TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE
MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO/IN TANDEM WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY/WARM FRONT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.


TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

WT 0850
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27020
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

venture
09-17-2011, 01:56 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2184.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN OK...ERN TX
PANHANDLE...NWRN/WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171938Z - 172115Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN/SWRN OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN/WRN TX DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TOWARD NRN OK...WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S/ ADVECTING NWD ACROSS N-CNTRL TX
INTO CNTRL OK. SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE WARM
FRONT...LOCATED NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER INTO NWRN/WRN
TX...AND IS AIDING IN SHARPENING A DRYLINE. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG AND W OF
THE DRYLINE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND TOWERING CUMULUS GROWTH ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BY 22Z. COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C PER
KM/ AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 3000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODERATE MIDLEVEL SWLYS /NEAR 30 KT/ OVERSPREADING 20 KT LOW-LEVEL
SLYS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..GARNER.. 09/17/2011


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

venture
09-17-2011, 02:16 PM
Ww 851 severe tstm ok tx 172020z - 180400z
axis..70 statute miles east and west of line..
65nne csm/clinton ok/ - 130s cds/childress tx/ ..aviation coords.. 60nm e/w /41wsw end - 22w abi/ hail surface and aloft..1.7 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025.

UPDATE: This is going to be for counties south of the Tornado Watch and west of I-35. Oklahoma, Cleveland and McClain are not in either watch. Canadian is in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Logan and Kingfisher counties are in the Tornado Watch.

venture
09-17-2011, 02:24 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0851_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.7 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 130 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 850...

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND
POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH SVR WIND/HAIL...EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG CONFLUENCE LINES ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH NOW ARCING
THROUGH PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND W CNTRL TX. WHILE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...THE STORMS MAY RECEIVE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM CONTINUING RETURN OF RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LLJ THIS EVE. SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE NRN PART OF THE WATCH MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS TNGT...WITH A
CONTINUING A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND/HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.7 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

WS 0851
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.7
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

venture
09-17-2011, 02:52 PM
Have a new chat room software up and running that I'm trying out.

http://www.storm-scope.com/forum/chat/

We'll see how it goes. A few bugs seems to jump out from it, but overall it works. Just no live twitter updates with this one. I'll be in an out of the room through the afternoon/evening. Working on some other projects right now so won't be there full time.

Thunder
09-17-2011, 02:58 PM
Hi. I clicked on the link and the Username/Password fields was already filled. What is up with that? I'm just suspicious and being cautious. And what channel? There are multiple channels.

venture
09-17-2011, 03:02 PM
It is going to pull from your Storm-Scope forum account. So since you already have one, it is going to pull that up. It is integrated with the forum there. Channel Public is the one I'll be in. I need to figure out how to hide the others.

Bunty
09-17-2011, 03:02 PM
http://www.randall.k12.wi.us/gifs/tornado.gif Thank you! This is so awesomely exciting! WOW!!! http://www.randall.k12.wi.us/gifs/tornado.gif

Why? Are you keeping your fingers crossed that it will get so exciting that a tornado will come over you and wreck everything you have?

venture
09-17-2011, 04:01 PM
Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
457 pm cdt sat sep 17 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northwestern grant county in northern oklahoma...
Northeastern alfalfa county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 545 pm cdt

* at 458 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 11 miles southwest of
manchester...moving east at 20 mph.

* locations in the warning include manchester and wakita.

venture
09-17-2011, 04:16 PM
Strong rotation, great radar presentation west of Sand Creek and Wakita.

http://www.storm-scope.com/images/vnx/091711-515pm.png

Thunder
09-17-2011, 04:17 PM
Ah, okay, thanks!

venture
09-17-2011, 04:54 PM
Multiple tornado reports last several minutes...include two at once.

http://www.storm-scope.com/images/vnx/091711-552pm.png

http://www.storm-scope.com/images/vnx/091711-552pm-rot.png

Thunder
09-17-2011, 05:49 PM
I just got back, but no one is in the chat. I feel so sad. :-(

I like the other chat, tbh, cuz it seem to bring in more people and when no one is talking, we can keep company with the overboard twitter posts from NWS/OUN.

Thunder
09-17-2011, 07:03 PM
Please support Venture's site and chat. He isn't there anymore. Not a single soul, other than me, showed up to keep him company. He's gone now and I'm bored. :-(

bandnerd
09-17-2011, 08:22 PM
There are football games on, and it's not anywhere near the metro area, so I imagine people are preoccupied with other things.

Thunder
09-17-2011, 09:42 PM
There are football games on, and it's not anywhere near the metro area, so I imagine people are preoccupied with other things.

Yeah, I didn't realize much of the "game day" until after the closing of Oklahoma's #1 Market when I turned out the lights, check around the areas, and seeing OU game starting on the big screen.

Hopefully the next time Venture attempts the new chat software that there will be support. I just felt bad and hurt for Venture to sit there waiting and leaving. I did a typical "Live Wire" joke at him, but he didn't respond, so that says he was in a bad mood. :-( Sorry, Venture, hope it works next time.

Thunder
09-17-2011, 10:24 PM
Just went out for that final glorious ciggy before bed. Well, I'm happy to report that rain is finally here.

venture
09-17-2011, 11:40 PM
Yeah, I didn't realize much of the "game day" until after the closing of Oklahoma's #1 Market when I turned out the lights, check around the areas, and seeing OU game starting on the big screen.

Hopefully the next time Venture attempts the new chat software that there will be support. I just felt bad and hurt for Venture to sit there waiting and leaving. I did a typical "Live Wire" joke at him, but he didn't respond, so that says he was in a bad mood. :-( Sorry, Venture, hope it works next time.

Hardly in a bad mood. I went to watch the game. :-P

The chat is just there for testing now to see how it works. If it is junk, I'll replace it.