It won't last long. It will be freezing cold before you know it. Unless you like cold weather.

It's easier to get warm then it is to cool off. ;-)

It's easier to get warm then it is to cool off. ;-)

Well, that's true. But, I'm a lake guy so I just jump off my boat into the water. I turn into a camp fire guy during the winter. When there's no burn ban anyway.

Well, that's true. But, I'm a lake guy so I just jump off my boat into the water. I turn into a camp fire guy during the winter. When there's no burn ban anyway.

You're preachin to the choir. Lol

Here is a quick outlook taking us to the 4th of November. Another cool snap coming and then it looks like a stormy period for early November with maybe a risk of severe weather as we finally have our Fall storm season.

Thurs 10/20 - Highs 50s and 60s. Dry.
Fri 10/21 - Highs 50s and 60s. Lows 30s and 40s.
Sat 10/22 - Highs 50s and 60s. Lows 40s and 50s. Light rain southern half of OK. Maybe a storm far south.
Sun 10/23 - Highs 60s near 70. Lows 50s. Light rain southern OK.
Mon 10/24 - Highs 60s and 70s. Lows 50s. Dry.
Tue 10/25 - Highs 60s NW, 70s SE.Lows 50s and 60s. Mostly Dry, maybe an isolated storm late.
Wed 10/26 - Highs 60s/70s early then temps falling into 50s. Light rain Eastern OK.
Thur 10/27 - Highs 40s. Lows 30s. Dry.
Fri 10/28 - Highs 40s and 50s. Lows 30s. Dry.
Sat 10/29 - Highs 50s. Lows 30s and 40s. Dry.
Sun 10/30 - Highs 60s. Lows 40s. Dry.
Mon 10/31 - Highs 60s to near 70. Lows 50s. Slight chance of light rain far southern OK.
Tue 11/01 - Highs 70s. Lows 50s and 60s. Chance of storms/rain. Severe?
Wed 11/02 - Highs 60s and 70s. Lows 50s and 60s. Chance of storms/rain. Severe?
Thur 11/03 - Highs 60s and 70s. Lows 60s. Chance of storms/rain. Severe?
Fri 11/04 - Highs 50s and 60s. Lows 50s. Chance of rain. Storms far southeast.

You have made me a very happy person, venture :)

About that drought …

Recent rains are just a drop in the bucket.

http://www.okgazette.com/oklahoma/article-13317-about-that-drought-….html

Not quite a slight risk for thunderstorms Saturday but a chance mainly south and east of the OKC metro...

SLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS MASS
FIELDS CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM
WY/NRN CO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT EXPECTED
TO RESIDE FROM W-E OVER NRN TX AT 12Z SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NWD INTO SRN OK THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THIS BOUNDARY BEING A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM MID-LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SPREADING ESEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE TIMING OF THE
WY/CO TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS TSTMS SHOULD INITIALLY FORM OVER SRN OK/N TX...WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE ARKLATEX SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SLY LLJ
VEERS TO SWLY-WLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SOME UVVS SUGGEST THE
COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOWER THAN A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 45
KT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THE MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVIANT STORM
MOTIONS.

I so forgot to post the pictures of Taz the Poodle in the rain his first time! Remember the first rain/storm we got recently after so many weeks of drought...that was the day I got him a rain jacket to keep him dry.

Venture, this better be making you smile! :-D

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/Taz/2011-10-08172455.jpg

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/Taz/2011-10-08172448.jpg

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/Taz/2011-10-08172438.jpg

Of course, he has gotten bigger since then.

Slight Risk today...and it does officially include most of the Metro area.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX...

...OK/NORTH TX...

NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS WY/CO INTO WRN OK BY 21Z. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVENT
THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WEST TX WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A SFC WARM FRONT TO
ADVANCE/SHARPEN NEAR THE RED RIVER BY PEAK HEATING. WHILE LARGE
SCALE FORCING/CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS OK WHERE GRADUALLY MOISTENING
PROFILES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
AOA 1500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. CURRENTLY MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH TX IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR ONE INCH
WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS ACT. GIVEN
THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAIRLY COOL IT APPEARS THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY ACROSS OK THEN INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/NERN
TX AFTER DARK.

IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LOW LEVEL SHEAR IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAN MATERIALIZE. EVEN SO STRONG/SEVERE MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL AS THEY PROPAGATE SEWD
ACROSS SRN HALF OF OK INTO NORTH TX BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

Venture, what do you think of Taz the Poodle enjoying his first time in the rain. The rain that we all finally got on that day breaking the dry streak. Its also his first rain jacket.

Clothing on animals is cruel. :-P

Clothing on animals is cruel. :-P

Why would you think that? It does not hurt them. I make sure it does not hurt him. At first, he don't like any clothes or outfits, but that is normal, because it is new to him and he has to get used to it. The more he wears something, the better he is being used to it. The rain jacket really did kept him dry, so that should not be animal cruelty. Although, I did forget about the shoes... Maybe when he is full grown, I will get him some shoes, because its important to protect his paws when going out walking/running especially to keep his paws dry.

He don't always wear something every day. On Saturday, during football season, he wears the OU hat and OU shirt. Then on Sunday, he wears the Devil costume for Halloween. For the last October weekend, he will wear the Devil costume on both days readily greet all the children swarming here for candies.

I hope you love Taz the Poodle. I might post some weather pictures with him just for you. Remember the cows sensation that I did on the Live Wire? I can do something funny with Taz the Poodle. Just remember this... You are his Uncle. That means he is your Nephew. I hope one day you will be able to meet him...hoping that you are not allergic to canines. Actually, the Poodle breed are best for people with allergy. They do not have fur...rather that their hair is similar to human hair. Poodle do not shed. Yeah, you will meet him one day.

Good night. Looking forward to the weather later today. I will keep checking via my #1 Samsung Epic Android Smartphone.

Clothing on animals is cruel. :-P

+1

And now, back to the weather.

And now, back to the weather.

Mmmhmm. Amazing how one little comment can throw us into the wacky world of "WTF?!"

Slight risk remains in effect today, the area is generally the same as earlier but was expanded west and north by a row of counties. Main risk is hail with a lower wind threat and a very marginal tornado threat.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX...

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WERE MADE TO SHAVE OFF NWRN PARTS OF
SVR PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK OVER WRN OK AND ADD TO THE
SRN FRINGE OF SVR RISKS IN N TX.

LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AS PLANNED WITH MID-UPR 50S DEW
POINTS ANTICIPATED BY MID-AFTN NEAR A WARM FRONT IN CNTRL/SRN OK AND
N TX /MLCAPES 500-1500 J PER KG/. AS FORMIDABLE UPR WAVE OVER WRN
KS BRUSHES ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS WILL INITIATE 22-23Z IN
CNTRL OK ALA 12Z WRF-NMM/1.33KM NAM NESTED GRID. THOUGH MID-LVL WLY
FLOW EXHIBITS WEAKNESS...HIGH-LVL FLOW WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE. COOL THERMO
PROFILES AND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL.

FOCUSED AREA OF LLVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND CONTINUED ESE
AMPLIFICATION OF DIFLUENT UPR TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY COULD
EVOLVE INTO A SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS OR TWO...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED HAIL/MARGINAL WIND THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING SE ACROSS
PARTS OF N TX AFTER DARK.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 10/22/2011

There is an enhanced risk of supercell
storms with large and damaging hail...from the oklahoma city area
southward along interstate 35 and interstate 44 into north texas.
Impacts...
The main concerns are damaging hail 2 inches in diameter or larger...
Wind gusts over 60 mph...and dangerous lightning.

The risk of tornadoes is low...but people should remain alert for
changes.

HRRR showing storm development between 6 and 7 PM tonight. By 7PM storms should be along a line from Tulsa to Norman and will move Southeast. We'll see how accurate this is and if storms fire earlier. I always tend to figure timing could be off 1 to 1.5 hours and location around 50 miles either side of its solution.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t5/2011102215/cref_t5sfc_f09.png

Why would you think that? It does not hurt them. I make sure it does not hurt him. At first, he don't like any clothes or outfits, but that is normal, because it is new to him and he has to get used to it. The more he wears something, the better he is being used to it. The rain jacket really did kept him dry, so that should not be animal cruelty. Although, I did forget about the shoes... Maybe when he is full grown, I will get him some shoes, because its important to protect his paws when going out walking/running especially to keep his paws dry.

He don't always wear something every day. On Saturday, during football season, he wears the OU hat and OU shirt. Then on Sunday, he wears the Devil costume for Halloween. For the last October weekend, he will wear the Devil costume on both days readily greet all the children swarming here for candies.


You don't need them, but aren't you going to buy ear plugs for Taz, so he won't be scared out of his mind when a thunderstorm comes?

You don't need them, but aren't you going to buy ear plugs for Taz, so he won't be scared out of his mind when a thunderstorm comes?

I take him out when it storms and he is getting used to it. Remember, this is a Psycho Poodle.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2268.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN OK...NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX AND
SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221849Z - 222045Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21-23Z FROM PARTS CNTRL
THROUGH SERN OK AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO NERN TX AND SWRN AR. INITIAL
THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN AR NWWD THROUGH CNTRL
OK. A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS WRN AND NWRN TX. BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM
N-CNTRL AND NERN TX INTO SRN AND S-CNTRL OK. VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACCAS OVER NRN OK MOVING SEWD...WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS INCREASING OVER NERN TX AND SE OK. THE
ACCAS IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND NWRN OK. CINH SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...AND THE BAND OF ASCENT BEGINS
TO ACT ON NRN FRINGE OF THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX...SERN THROUGH CNTRL OK WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS
THE INITIAL STORM MODE...BUT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
AN MCS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -12 TO -16C AT 500
MB...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2011

I just received a text alert for Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Oklahoma County.

Ww 869 severe tstm ar ok tx 222040z - 230500z
axis..85 statute miles north and south of line..
25n sps/wichita falls tx/ - 65ene prx/paris tx/ ..aviation coords.. 75nm n/s /21nne sps - 33nnw txk/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 30030.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0869_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 340 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NWRN OK WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ESE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY LATE THIS EVE.
LLVL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY UPR 50S TO LWR 60S DEW
POINTS...HAVE COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING TO SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX. EXPECT TSTMS TO INITIATE
INVOF SWRN/CNTRL OK 22-23Z NEAR A WRMFNT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STORM
NUMBER INCREASE...EXPECT TRANSITION INTO A POSSIBLE
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...TRACKING ESE INTO N TX AND POSSIBLY THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY 06-07Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT LATER THIS EVE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.

Probability table:
Prob of 2 or more tornadoes : 10%
prob of 1 or more strong /f2-f5/ tornadoes : <02%
prob of 10 or more severe wind events : 40%
prob of 1 or more wind events >= 65 knots : 30%
prob of 10 or more severe hail events : 50%
prob of 1 or more hail events >= 2 inches : 20%
prob of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events : 80%

&&
attribute table:
Max hail /inches/ : 2.0
max wind gusts surface /knots/ : 60
max tops /x 100 feet/ : 450
mean storm motion vector /degrees and knots/ : 30030
particularly dangerous situation : No

Venture, what say you about the 85000 folks in Norman tonight?

Venture, what say you about the 85000 folks in Norman tonight?

Bring a rain coat? :)

Depends where stuff pops up. New storm is not firing up in Lincoln County moving NE. Another little one in Seminole County. Severe Cluster of storms in far northern OK that are more East to ESE.

Bring a rain coat? :)

Depends where stuff pops up. New storm is not firing up in Lincoln County moving NE. Another little one in Seminole County. Severe Cluster of storms in far northern OK that are more East to ESE.

At first glance I thought you were talking about "Lincoln, Nebraska", then I looked again and you said "Lincoln County moving NE."

Lincoln County storm is severe, new storms developing in Garvin, Canadian, and Blaine Counties. The ones out well will impact the central/northern part of the metro area. Alfalfa county storms is also severe.

Essentially take it this way. Any storm that goes up for the next few hours will go severe with a change for large hail.

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service tulsa ok
627 pm cdt sat oct 22 2011

the national weather service in tulsa has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Okfuskee county in east central oklahoma

* until 700 pm cdt

* at 626 pm cdt...nws meteorologists and storm spotters were tracking
a very dangerous tornado located 2 miles northeast of boley...
Moving east at 30 mph. A tornado has been confirmed...take cover
now!

* some locations in or near the path of this storm include...
Castle...okemah...pharoah...clearview and weleetka.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 215 and 231.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are near the path of this storm...take cover now! If no
underground shelter is available move to an interior room on the
lowest floor. Mobile homes and vehicles should be abandoned for more
substantial shelter. Avoid windows!

Strong rotation on the storm heading towards Ada right now.

The game will be delayed during these huge threatening storms.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
659 pm cdt sat oct 22 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 815 pm cdt

* at 658 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of union city...moving southeast at
20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Damaging hail up to two inches in diameter...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include bethany...blanchard...bridge
creek...cole...minco...mustang...newcastle...nicho ls hills...
Richland...the village...tuttle...union city...warr acres...western
norman...western oklahoma city and yukon.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 125 and 149.

This includes interstate 44 between mile markers 92 and 127.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Large hail is likely which may cause injury and damage to property.
Take shelter in a sturdy building away from windows.

Delayed the OU game, obviously.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
731 pm cdt sat oct 22 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Cleveland county in central oklahoma...

* until 845 pm cdt

* at 731 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from moore to central
norman...moving east at 15 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of golf balls...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include etowah...lake thunderbird...
Moore...norman...southeastern oklahoma city...stanley draper lake
and stella.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
732 pm cdt sat oct 22 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern logan county in central oklahoma...
Oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 845 pm cdt

* at 731 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated severe
thunderstorms extending from near guthrie south to edmond... Moving
east southeast at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include arcadia...bethany...cedar
valley...choctaw...del city...edmond...forest park...guthrie...
Harrah...jones...lake aluma...luther...meridian...midwest city...
Navina...newalla...nichols hills...nicoma park...oklahoma city...
Seward...spencer...the village...tinker air force base...valley
brook and warr acres.

Unconfirmed report of baseball hal in Union City/Mustang area as their storm came through.

Norman lucked out as no major hail cores could get established as the storms rolled through. Large hail core is holding together between Amber and Blanchard. Several official reports of hail 1.50 to 2.00 inches from Yukon through Tuttle.

Passed 8:15....they promised to start the game....still waiting....could be midnight....

Passed 8:15....they promised to start the game....still waiting....could be midnight....

Now it's 8:45 so it should be starting in a sec.

We briefly lost power at the airport around 1935.

A different map put together by Norman. LOL

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image7.jpg

We measure hail in teacups now? Is this weather by Disney?

I never saw a hail stone shaped like a tea cup. Lol

We measure hail in teacups now? Is this weather by Disney?

Its been that way for years.

Some local spotters and media use tea cup when calling things in, so they just accepted it. Not that the NWS likes to use it mind you. LOL Kind of like the media which loves their "Travelers Advisory" in the winter - yes I'm bringing it up again. LOL No such advisory exists but they think the public is too dumb to understand the difference between a Freezing Rain Advisory, Winter Weather Advisory, and a Snow Advisory.

Some local spotters and media use tea cup when calling things in, so they just accepted it. Not that the NWS likes to use it mind you. LOL Kind of like the media which loves their "Travelers Advisory" in the winter - yes I'm bringing it up again. LOL No such advisory exists but they think the public is too dumb to understand the difference between a Freezing Rain Advisory, Winter Weather Advisory, and a Snow Advisory.

Nice to know I'm not crazy. I mean, if it's 3" in diameter, how hard is that to figure out? That's just about my pinky finger in length lol. It ain't rocket science people.

Decides to do a graphic version for this week. Nothing crazy and wild coming. Some storms Wednesday but eh...doesn't look exciting yet.

Discussion and full size graphic is here: http://www.storm-scope.com/?p=179

First day is Monday 10/24 and runs through November 8th. Thumbnail is a bit too small to read the numbers, will try to increase the size some next time without posting the full size massive image.

http://www.storm-scope.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/forecast102711-300x225.png

http://services.trb.com/kfor/7day.jpg
http://images.ibsys.com/okl/images/weather/auto/7dayforecast_640x480.jpg
http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/kwtv/weather/updated/7day_full.JPG
7 day forecast

Area forecast discussion
national weather service norman ok
303 pm cdt tue oct 25 2011

.discussion...
Cold front has begun to push into nw ok this afternoon with very
warm temps prevailing ahead of the boundary. Expect front to
continue swd overnight reaching central/se parts of the fa by
sunrise wednesday. Main threat for showers/tstms overnight will be
with nern parts of the area as the front encounters somewhat better
moisture. Best precip chances on wednesday will remain near the
frontal boundary as it continues to advance southward through
southern ok and north texas. Rain chances increase areawide by
wednesday night as large scale lift increases north of the front as
the upper system over the rockies approaches the region. Models have
come into better agreement with the handling of the southern part of
the system developing a low over nrn nm wednesday night with the
system evolving into an open wave as it move eastward across the
southern plains into thursday. Expect fairly widespread precip to
develop late wednesday/wednesday night and continue into thursday
morning before gradually ending from the west as the upper system
exits the area. Diminishing clouds and light winds will lead to a
cold morning on friday with frost/freeze likely...esp north. Genly
dry weather will persist through the remainder of the pd with a
gradual warming trend into the early part of next week.

7 days forecast for Tuesday Evening from 4,5,and 9

http://services.trb.com/kfor/7day.jpg
http://images.ibsys.com/okl/images/weather/auto/7dayforecast_640x480.jpg
http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/kwtv/weather/updated/7day_full.JPG

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/damon3.jpg?w=426&h=239
well it looks like we are making up the rain then we didn't get for the past couple of months

Unfortunately it has only been a band aid on the situation. Most remember we've been sitting around 15 to 16 inches below normal for the last 365 days. Even with the large amounts of rain recently, that number has actually gotten worse. We are now over 17 inches below normal in Central OK. We are going to need to get even more moisture on a continuous basis to catch up. Unfortunately it doesn't look like it will have over the next two weeks.

There got to be a point where NWS need to let it go. 365 days is to long ago to be worrying about. We focus on the current and future needs. For example, next Spring could be very rainy resulting the state to be green for whole Summer, but NWS will complain that we are still in drought and below rainfall amount by still figuring in the past 365 days which would screw weather data by using old last year's stats. NWS are in a severe emergency for a complete overhaul.

we need to move on from this year drought maybe next year in January we may get a lot of snow or maybe none at all

There got to be a point where NWS need to let it go. 365 days is to long ago to be worrying about. We focus on the current and future needs. For example, next Spring could be very rainy resulting the state to be green for whole Summer, but NWS will complain that we are still in drought and below rainfall amount by still figuring in the past 365 days which would screw weather data by using old last year's stats. NWS are in a severe emergency for a complete overhaul.

Stop and think about what you write first before hitting "post". It'll save you some grief.

The ground and environment doesn't care that a date switched on a calendar. It doesn't make weather conditions go away. The ground water table and such still depends on what has been happening over a longer period. Who said it was the NWS making a big deal? That was *ME* pulling the numbers based on the data from the Mesonet on what has been received compared to the 30 year average. You say we need to focus on current and future needs? Well...current the ground is effin dry. How is that? You can't just say a drought is done when it is still on going. It is called look below the surface and evaluating all the details, not be caught up in some twisted tin hat conspiracy you seem to be drawn towards.

If we get a lot of rain or snow this winter, yes that will help drought conditions. It will increase the ground moisture content and move us out of it. Does that mean we need to get all 17 inches? Not at all...However we do need a long duration rain event to get the ground moisture replenished.

Let me give you some links to go read before you comment again about the NWS being on some agenda in regards to the drought.
- http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/palmer.html
- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

Yes, the NWS has an agenda, that is so the problem here.

Just like our bodies don't re-start themselves with calorie counts/needs at midnight every day, the weather doesn't re-set itself just because our calendar says it should. We are in an historical drought, and the recent rain isn't enough to negate that. Venture has everything right. If you respect him so much, then listen to him because unlike most of us, he actually knows what he's talking about, and doesn't just talk about the weather in an, "Oh, it's gonna be warm out" kind of way.

Thunder probably took needing 17 inches too literally. That would also be like saying were good for the next year because we received all our yearly rainfall in one month(silly example, I know). In reality, they look at more than just the rain gauge or calenders.

Although it isn't close to us, Oklahoma did have its first measurable snowfall yesterday out in the Panhandle. Still some snow out in the TX PH today, but just a cold disgusting rain here in the main body. We need the rain definitely, but just 15 degrees cooler and it would be pretty white stuff. :-P

we need to move on from this year drought maybe next year in January we may get a lot of snow or maybe none at all

Also say we get 17 inches of snow, 17 inches of snow is not equal to 17 inches of rain and our water reserve at Lake Canton is down to 33% which requires run off in it's tributaries to get it's level up which it is not going to happen from snow.

Yeah. We need higher moisture quantity snow this year to help. Last year we had a lot of accumulation, but at a 20 or 22 to 1 ratio...it just didn't do a lot. We need a good 8 or 10 to 1 ratio. Also could do without the wind and just get a nice thick blanket put down to cover everything.

I hate it when I go to Newsok.com after it rains or while it's raining and one of their main headlines is "Oklahoma rain not enough to stop drought", and they do that everytime like they're just dying to give us bad news and it's not like I ever though that a few hours rain was gonna end a year long drought, and if anybody out there does think that, well then God help them.

Could be a sign of a crazy winter. Winter Storm Watches and a few warnings are up from Virginia through Maine as the areas over there are looking at 6 to 12 inches of snow. Pretty crazy to see a winter storm this early, but not the snow. Have seen some light snow (nothing more than a dusting) on Halloween when I lived back that way.