View Full Version : Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - July & August 2011



Pages : [1] 2 3 4 5

venture
07-03-2011, 08:56 AM
This thread will be used to discussion upcoming/ongoing severe weather events through the months of July and August. This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

_________Norman Warning Area Map __________________ Tulsa County Warning Area Map____
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png
Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | Blizzard Warning | Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Winter Storm Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Freezing Rain Advisory | Heavy Snow Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement | Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks

________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 _________________ Day 3 ___________ Days 4 through 8 ___
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob_small.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 ______________ Days 3 to 8 _____
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/day3-8fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)

*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

CoD NEXRAD Radar Mosaic
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif

CoD Visible Satellite Image (will appear blank overnight)
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports (Today and Yesterday)
________ Today _____________ Yesterday _____
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)

Useful Links
COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
NWS Norman Enhanced Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/

venture
07-03-2011, 09:00 AM
Outlook for the next 2 weeks, more of the same. Hot and mostly dry. Chance for afternoon isolated storms due to the heat. Best chance for any precip will be east of I-35, with western OK remaining mostly dry through the period. Expect the severe and exceptional drought conditions to continue to expand to the east.

BG918
07-03-2011, 09:30 AM
This pattern looks like it's here to stay. I think we'll have to get a tropical system up here to really provide much relief.

Thunder
07-03-2011, 09:55 AM
The fact that he put July and August together is frightening. This is gonna be one long....inactive....hot....summer.

bandnerd
07-03-2011, 09:45 PM
My goodness, it's raining on our side of town.

Thunder
07-03-2011, 10:14 PM
AWESOME STORM! Just checked the animated radar via the KOCO app (click on the Weather tab, scroll down) and see a nice storm covering whole OKC innercore. Just in time after the fireworks downtown. Hope this bring down the temp tomorrow a lil bit.

venture
07-06-2011, 02:57 PM
Update from the Storm Scope Blog...


The long boring summer continues. Extreme heat. Very dry air. Mostly light winds. Perfect weather to turn into a lobster as everyone hangs out at the pool while ignoring how much of their pay check is flowing to OG&E.

Isolated storms are on going around and look pretty certain for the rest of the day. Like it has been for the last week, they will move very slowly in random directions (most south of I-40 are going SW while north of I-40 they are going SE). A couple could get severe with some small hail and strong winds as the storms collapse. At 4PM and outflow boundary was approaching Central OK, so some storms could pop along or just behind this area.

Later tonight additional storms will be possible north of I-40 as a large complex comes out of Colorado and skirts the KS/OK border. There is a chance that it could go either farther south or not even get into OK. Sometimes we can expect them to flow ESE and then they hang a right and dive due south. We’ll see what happens. Longer range still looks to be the same with very hot and dry conditions being the main weather story.

Thunder
07-06-2011, 03:57 PM
I love Venture's poetry. <3

venture
07-07-2011, 07:38 PM
So quick update for tonight. Boundary is still sitting in Central/Southern OK...but nothing has been able to go up along it. So don't expect much there. Complex is doing its thing in Colorado, but doesn't look all that great right now. Show term models still bring it into NW OK later tonight and also develops some storms across Central OK overnight. We'll see what happens. If you feel anything wet from the sky tonight I would be more concerned of that flock of birds that just flew by instead of it being water from a cloud. :-)

OKCisOK4me
07-08-2011, 08:48 AM
I have dust splotches on my car today so I can't imagine the birds were in a circus over my car this morning ;-)

BG918
07-08-2011, 11:54 AM
I was just in Denver and they are getting a ton of rain this year and everything is still really green, and oddly, pretty humid there. Dewpoints have been consistently in the 50's and close to 60 a few times for the past several weeks which is unusual along the Front Range. Strange year..

blangtang
07-09-2011, 03:21 PM
110 degrees is Severely disgusting. Barf!

Achilleslastand
07-09-2011, 03:36 PM
Temperature gauge on the back porch reading 117 degrees.........Nice.

ou48A
07-09-2011, 04:11 PM
Is there any link where I can fine the high/low so far for today for Norman…. Not the hourly update.
Thanks

ou48A
07-09-2011, 04:13 PM
I was thinking back a few months to this past winter when we had one night where wide spread overnight lows in northern Oklahoma were in the -25 to -31 range. Now with highs of 110+ this is an extreme temp range!
I cannot ever remember such a large temp swing in one year in Oklahoma.

Jesseda
07-09-2011, 04:39 PM
how many days has it been 100 plus degrees in okc? the record is 22 days in a row

Jesseda
07-09-2011, 04:40 PM
thought this was interesting http://blog.newsok.com/weather/2010/08/13/oklahoma-city-temperature-facts-national-weather-service/

Thunder
07-09-2011, 04:41 PM
how many days has it been 100 plus degrees in okc? the record is 22

Incorrect. :-)

22 is the consecutive days in a row record.

We just hit 19 days of 100+ this year. I'm not sure how many of that in a straight row.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/sarah1.jpg?w=426&h=287

This graphic was made yesterday. I don't know what day we hit 108.

BlackmoreRulz
07-09-2011, 05:50 PM
Oklahoma City, Okla.

100-degree days through July 8: 19
Annual average is only 10, so this number has almost doubled.
Friday was the 10th consecutive day with 100-degree temperatures.
Most 100-degree days in a year: 50 in 1980
Forecast: 100s continue for the foreseeable future.

venture
07-09-2011, 06:44 PM
In case anyone has wondered...1996 was the last time we were this hot. Not that it matters at this point. LOL

Bring on the snow.

OUman
07-10-2011, 10:32 AM
^Yeah and then we will have two blizzards in a row again and then everyone will be complaining about how much snow we're getting and how cold it's been, and then everyone will want the "nice, warm temperatures" but then it will go back into the heat dome period, and then everyone will want the snow again and then...:dizzy:

Jesseda
07-10-2011, 02:16 PM
not everyone, i will take cold over heat any and every day

BG918
07-10-2011, 04:55 PM
Curious, why is it always the same NE Oklahoma counties (Osage, Creek, Tulsa, Wagoner, Okmulgee, Muskogee, etc.) that are always under an Excessive Heat Warning while the rest of the state, when it is just as hot and humid, are under a Heat Advisory? Seems like it is always that Arkansas River Valley corridor...

bandnerd
07-10-2011, 05:21 PM
Curious, why is it always the same NE Oklahoma counties (Osage, Creek, Tulsa, Wagoner, Okmulgee, Muskogee, etc.) that are always under an Excessive Heat Warning while the rest of the state, when it is just as hot and humid, are under a Heat Advisory? Seems like it is always that Arkansas River Valley corridor...

Are you jealous?

BG918
07-10-2011, 06:46 PM
Are you jealous?

No just wondering if there is a particular reason. I think it possibly could be due to humidity levels being higher in that part of the state.

bandnerd
07-10-2011, 07:02 PM
No just wondering if there is a particular reason. I think it possibly could be due to humidity levels being higher in that part of the state.

That's exactly why.

OUman
07-10-2011, 08:06 PM
Yep, Tulsa being in the state's "Green Country" and other counties surrounding it have much more foliage cover than the rest of the state, thus more evapotranspiration effects (moisture exchange by trees), leading to higher humidity levels.

BG918
07-10-2011, 09:04 PM
Yep, Tulsa being in the state's "Green Country" and other counties surrounding it have much more foliage cover than the rest of the state, thus more evapotranspiration effects (moisture exchange by trees), leading to higher humidity levels.

Makes sense. I guess the higher terrain in far NE Oklahoma and especially SE Oklahoma offsets the effect of the trees and lakes as those counties are not in Excessive Heat Warnings either.

Not that it makes a huge difference anyway. This pattern is not going anywhere anytime soon either. More hot and dry weather on the way for the next couple weeks unless we get some help from the Tropics..

venture
07-11-2011, 12:32 AM
What? It might actually rain? Well there is hope. Not much, but it is there. Some...some... consistency in the models with this, so we'll go with it and see what happens. I would not expect anything widespread, but a few people could get some help from the heat - for an hour.

Monday Night - very slight chance in Central and North Central OK.
Wednesday - Slight chance Central and East.
Friday, Sat & Sun - Far Eastern OK.
Following Monday into Tuesday - South central and South East OK.
Tuesday the 26th - Maybe some statewide. Wouldn't hold my breath.

We'll see what happens. Towards the end of the month, would could move into more of a northwesterly flow aloft as the ridge builds into the west and a trough forms east. Might help chances for storms. Help from the tropics right now looks nil...so enjoy buying up that OG&E stock.

venture
07-11-2011, 05:06 PM
Spotty storms this evening and tonight mainly west of US 81. Doesn't look like anything here for now.

venture
07-12-2011, 12:04 PM
Isolated strong to severe storms possible for the rest of the day.

SPC's Take:

...SRN KS/NRN OK AREA...
UPR VORT NOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OK SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENE
TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LWR MS VLY UPR RIDGE. SFC HEATING AND
WEAK ASCENT WITH SYSTEM MAY FOSTER ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS OVER
PARTS OF NW TX...WRN/NRN OK...AND SRN KS. GIVEN VERY WARM/DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER ENVIRONMENT...SOME STORMS MAY YIELD MICROBURSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Thunder
07-12-2011, 12:06 PM
Explosive storm right over us. Heavy rain!!! Flowers dancing out there. So cute!

Jesseda
07-12-2011, 12:09 PM
finally it is raining!!!!

OKCMallen
07-12-2011, 12:12 PM
I hear thunder, but no rain downtown.

Jesseda
07-12-2011, 12:14 PM
it is raining at the airport right now,
maybe it will get to you in downtown in a minute or two

venture
07-12-2011, 12:16 PM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
115 pm cdt tue jul 12 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 200 pm cdt

* at 115 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm near moore...moving northeast at 10 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Damaging wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include central oklahoma city...choctaw...
Del city...forest park...midwest city...moore...nicoma park...
Spencer...stanley draper lake...tinker air force base and valley
brook.

Jesseda
07-12-2011, 12:18 PM
its becoming a frog strangler out here at will rogers

OKCMallen
07-12-2011, 12:22 PM
Rain downtown!

venture
07-12-2011, 01:10 PM
New strong to sever storm over SW OKC/Mustang area. Hail and damaging wind threat increasing.

venture
07-12-2011, 01:33 PM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
232 pm cdt tue jul 12 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 330 pm cdt

* at 230 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm over southern oklahoma city...3 miles southwest of
will rogers airport...moving north at 10 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Damaging wind gusts to 65 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Severe wind gusts may extend well outside the rain areas...reaching
surrounding areas...including yukon and mustang.

* locations in the warning include bethany...forest park...mustang...
Newcastle...nichols hills...valley brook...warr acres and western
oklahoma city.

venture
07-12-2011, 02:02 PM
Well unless something radical happens with temps, today will end the streak of 13 consecutive days of 100+ at KOKC/WRWA. Which of course means nothing for those of us who haven't gotten a drop yet and are still above 100. LOL

Achilleslastand
07-12-2011, 02:59 PM
Here in the nw metro we got a good amount of rain even had to pull over a couple of times because it was coming down so hard.

Thunder
07-12-2011, 03:35 PM
Its still raining and raining and raining. This is a huge surprise for us! Hopefully this greatly improve the drought conditions and remove water restrictions for OKC metro areas and Norman, because that is a whole lot of water.

Looking at the KOCO app for OKC, the current temp is 79. LOL

venture
07-12-2011, 06:03 PM
New storm moving into Norman and Noble from the SW is intensifying some. Could see more heavy rain and strong winds.

Thunder
07-12-2011, 08:29 PM
Thanks for bringing us all the rain, Venture! <3

Thunder
07-13-2011, 12:30 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjR7z63kEAo

Thunder
07-13-2011, 01:01 AM
Rainfall totals. Hope everyone sees this before its changed.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Rainfall_Totals.jpg

venture
07-13-2011, 08:42 AM
Thanks for bringing us all the rain, Venture! <3

Yeah, unfortunately it took out the power here from around 7PM last night to almost 5AM. The most aggravating thing it was only about 20 houses in the neighborhood impacts. I live on a street that forms a "U" and all the houses inside the U were without power, and those on the outside (except for the 6 on the bottom of it) were perfectly fine. Same crap happened during the major ice storm a few years back...at least it didn't take 6 days this time. Stupid OG&E.

kevinpate
07-13-2011, 08:56 AM
nice lawn amongst what appears to be a well kept collection of lawns up and down your street laddie.

Thunder
07-13-2011, 09:16 AM
nice lawn amongst what appears to be a well kept collection of lawns up and down your street laddie.

I tried to keep it really green this year, but mom kept griping about water usage. Watering nearly every day make it full and really lushy green, but haven't really done that this year. And the oak tree on the right needs trimming again to regrow grass. :-(

ou48A
07-13-2011, 12:10 PM
Yeah, unfortunately it took out the power here from around 7PM last night to almost 5AM. The most aggravating thing it was only about 20 houses in the neighborhood impacts. I live on a street that forms a "U" and all the houses inside the U were without power, and those on the outside (except for the 6 on the bottom of it) were perfectly fine. Same crap happened during the major ice storm a few years back...at least it didn't take 6 days this time. Stupid OG&E.

Underground utilities can significantly reduce the down time due to storm damage.
When we were looking for our current home having underground utilities was on the must have list.

SoonerDave
07-13-2011, 01:24 PM
Underground utilities can significantly reduce the down time due to storm damage.
When we were looking for our current home having underground utilities was on the must have list.

Yeah, I must admit to being spoiled *rotten* having essentially grown up with underground utilities. I know its cost-impossible, but I wish they could just bury every phone and power line in OKC and it would make the winter ice storms at least fractionally more bearable...

venture
07-13-2011, 01:42 PM
The sad thing, they are buried in our neighborhood. LOL

They finally showed up at the area where all the transformers or what not were and blew one up - or at least created a nice blue and white light show. Kind of annoying that if the entire sub division isn't out, we end up being one of the last areas addressed. Why they don't have some built in redundancy to ensure if 98% of the neighborhood is lit the other 2% still gets some juice.

Any who...more storms popping just to our west.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 231 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANADARKO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...

Thunder
07-13-2011, 04:45 PM
I noticed how each day, the storms try to make sure everyone get rain and going for those that didn't get rain previously. lol

venture
07-13-2011, 05:05 PM
Scattered severe and strong storms continue. We have 3 outflow boundaries all converging on the Metro area. This could assist in additional storm development in the Metro over the next 2-3 hours before things die down.

Thunder
07-13-2011, 05:09 PM
Scattered severe and strong storms continue. We have 3 outflow boundaries all converging on the Metro area. This could assist in additional storm development in the Metro over the next 2-3 hours before things die down.

Hope that happen! What I don't like is how the temperature is quickly rebounding. I was hoping it gets stuck in the 80s for our daytime highs for a couple days.

venture
07-17-2011, 09:58 AM
This pretty much sums it up. Chance of precip over the next week or so is around 10% should a shower/storm be able to pop up in the heat. A new upper ridge may try to form towards the end of NEXT week (don't confuse it with this week in the discussion below) that *MAY* attempt to get us in a bit of a Northwest Flow to try to bring something in. Chances are though it doesn't happen and we are locked into this heat through August or until a tropical blessing comes our way.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
212 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS LITTLE NEW TO SAY THAT HASN`T BEEN SAID OVER THE LAST
MONTH. AT LEST THROUGH MID-WEEK THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER OK AND KS WITH PERSISTENT HEAT. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110
EACH DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE MARV AND ECMWF FORECAST THAT THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST IN THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT DO NOT
INDICATE THAT ANY WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO APART FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS
WHICH MAY OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ONE OR TWO DAYS.

MikeinOKC
07-17-2011, 11:25 AM
I have been enjoying this thread the last couple weeks. If anyone else likes weather you should check this OKC Weather blog out. It has a lot of good info http://www.OklahomaWeatherTracker.com

Roadhawg
07-17-2011, 11:49 AM
ugh

Thunder
07-17-2011, 12:17 PM
Anyone want a BBQ Venture bonfire?