The Atlantic Tropical Season officially starts June 1st and runs through November. We'll be using this thread to discuss the activity that is to come in the Atlantic basin. Should any system start moving its way towards a specific inland region, we'll likely move that discussion to the monthly severe weather thread. This thread is meant as a resource and will be updated when needed. Do not use the thread for emergency planning for the protection of life and property.

Majority of the information provided here from the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

Atlantic Visible Satellite
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUVS.JPG

Atlantic Infrared Satellite - Colored
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg

Long Range Forecast Models
COD Forecast Model Page (http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/index.php)
Florida State Experimental Cyclone Forecast Page (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
NOGAPS (https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html)

Welcome to the first day of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Outlook from NHC:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME_______PRONUNCIATION
ARLENE ------------- AR LEEN
BRET ------------- BRET
CINDY ------------- SIN- DEE
DON ------------- DAHN
EMILY ------------- EH- MIH LEE
FRANKLIN ------------- FRANK- LIN
GERT ------------- GERT
HARVEY ------------- HAR- VEE
IRENE ------------- EYE REEN-
JOSE ------------- HO ZAY-
KATIA ------------- KA TEE- AH
LEE ------------- LEE
MARIA ------------- MUH REE- UH
NATE ------------- NAIT
OPHELIA ------------- O FEEL- YA
PHILIPPE ------------- FEE LEEP
RINA ------------- REE- NUH
SEAN ------------- SHAWN
TAMMY ------------- TAM- EE
VINCE ------------- VINSS
WHITNEY ------------- WHIT- NEE


THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES ...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION... AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES ...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

No real hope for now of a heat buster from the tropics for us. There is a potential a system to get organized in the Western Caribbean that, if it forms, would be forecast to track either North or Northeast.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

System in the Western Caribbean is getting a bit better organized. NHC has increased the chance of things becoming a Depression to 40% now. Models are completely split all over the place on where this system goes should it form. Below is the NHC discussion on the "Spaghetti" Model Plot.

GFDL has the system in the Central gulf by June 10th with 61 kt winds (65 kts would be hurricane). Looking at the model spread, I would almost favor a movement to the NNW into the Gulf instead of the track to the NE.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ONLY
SLOWLY DECREASING...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY BECOME SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.storm-scope.com/outlooks/invest94l.jpg

I hope it goes through the gulf and hit a bullseye on us and miraculously get stuck over us for days.

I hope it goes through the gulf and hit a bullseye on us and miraculously get stuck over us for days.

I wouldn't mind the rain but don't want flooding. Remnants of tropical systems are more welcome in July and August.

Updated discussion from NHC today. The model spread is almost identical to yesterday, so no need to repost. There is a general favoring of moving the system into the Gulf.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN IS MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

The Evening Discussion on Arlene which formed this afternoon.

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
ARLENE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...THERE
HAS BEEN NO FURTHER INCREASE IN ITS ORGANIZATION. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE 0000 UTC...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE...AND UW CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE
ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING ARLENE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER REDUCTION OF THE WESTERLY
SHEAR COULD LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

ARLENE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/6. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.
SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT ARLENE COULD TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SUGGESTS THIS
POSSIBILITY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS COULD BE FELT OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 21.4N 94.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.8N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.0N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 21.9N 97.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 21.7N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 02/0000Z 21.3N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

TD2 formed up off the coast of Florida today, but going the wrong direction for us.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WERE MEASURED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD
THE PLANE...THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE FLAGGED AS QUESTIONABLE. PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 44 KT WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY INDICATE A SYSTEM OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND IN THIS
CASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AS MUCH AS TYPICALLY OCCURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30
KT. THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING
WITH SOME DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND
INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. NONE OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM IS
SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS...ALONG WITH A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RATHER CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 27.5N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 27.4N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 28.2N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 30.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 32.0N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 34.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 36.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

Upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret already.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS...BECOMES THE SECOND TROPICAL
STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST. BRET IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

I hope it goes through the gulf and hit a bullseye on us and miraculously get stuck over us for days.

Oh, yeah, the Great Flood of 1986, caused by a fall tropical storm, was something else. Some people were scared to death that water couldn't be let out fast enough from Keystone Dam by Tulsa to keep the water from going over the top. But it didn't get that bad. But at least one or two bridges over the Cimarron River washed away.

Oh, yeah, the Great Flood of 1986, caused by a fall tropical storm, was something else. Some people were scared to death that water couldn't be let out fast enough from Keystone Dam by Tulsa to keep the water from going over the top. But it didn't get that bad. But at least one or two bridges over the Cimarron River washed away.

Keystone Dam released 310,000 cfs (cubic feet per second) during that flood; all gates open. Typical volume in the Arkansas at Tulsa is 10,000 cfs. By contrast, the highest cfs ever recorded on the Oklahoma River in OKC was just under 2,000 in '07.

Keystone Dam released 310,000 cfs (cubic feet per second) during that flood; all gates open. Typical volume in the Arkansas at Tulsa is 10,000 cfs. By contrast, the highest cfs ever recorded on the Oklahoma River in OKC was just under 2,000 in '07.

Hmm...maybe that's what we need to make the North Canadian/Oklahoma and Canadian rivers actually look like real rivers. You know, the kind with water and without nicely landscaped banks. LOL

Opps...Missed Cindy forming yesterday.

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 42.3N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 47.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 51.6N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 55.0N 22.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

You missed Cindy? I feel less safe now. lol

Not much new today.

Atlantic
TD Bret - last advisory issued, its done.
TS Cindy - Still a weak tropical storm but quickly going extratropical as it is moving through colder waters.

Pacific
Hurricane Dora - continues to spin down south of Cabo. Should continue to go NW and die out early next week. Probably won't see much, if any moisture swing back this way.

So what potential is out there?
One area of interest is just east of the Windward Islands. Not chance for it to really get going any time soon, just bring some rain and wind to the Caribbean islands. NOGAPS is out on its own, for the most part, and does eventually start to develop the low towards the end of the weekend once it passes north of Hispaniola. It takes the system NW through the Bahamas and just off the Florida coast near Daytona Beach in 6 days. None of the other major models are showing this solution right now, but just putting it out there.

Maybe some good news?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201190_model.html

Maybe some good news?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201190_model.html

Yeah I saw that. It's heading the right way at least!

Maybe some good news?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201190_model.html

Unfortunately all of today's model runs have completely dropped this solution, which was mostly just something they latched on to yesterday. The biggest issue for anything coming up from the Gulf would be the upper high parked over us. We would need it to move off to the east a bit to help get anything over us.

Hope...maybe.

http://www.storm-scope.com/outlooks/7262011.jpg

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

In reference to the above system, the model spread is very wide with intensity.

GFDL - landfall in SW Louisiana as a weak Tropical Storm.
HWRF - Landfall in Southern TX as a weak Hurricane.

Everything in between from a weak surface low to a hurricane is current projected...so we can't say for certainty that anything will happen. Landfall does appear to be anywhere from 3 to 4 days out.

Hope is increasing, but models are either keeping the system well south or dissipating very quickly as it approaches.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0411W5_NL_sm2+gif/205313W5_NL_sm.gif

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE
MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER...
AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES
OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL
STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD
OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF
A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/
GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER
TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE
THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF
THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF
MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.2N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.1N 88.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.5N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.8N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 27.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

New Discussion for Advisory 2

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS
EXPANDING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED BUT THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE CYCLONE AT DAYBREAK.

DON IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48-HR OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST OF 55 KT IS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GAIN SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES CONTROLLING THE
CURRENT MOTION OF DON IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR EVEN BUILD WESTWARD
A LITTLE. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN
IS ANTICIPATED...AND DON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON THE SAME
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS ONE WOULD
LIKE TO SEE...HOWEVER. SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFDL AND GFDN BRING
THE CYCLONE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WHILE OTHERS...LIKE THE
ECMWF...INDICATE A MORE WESTERLY MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO OPTIONS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND UNCERTAINTIES... A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS COAST AT
THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 22.8N 88.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 23.6N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 25.0N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 26.2N 93.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 27.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 29.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

This is okay. Even though the core will be going the wrong way, the overall system is still huge....pulling in the moisture....and all that swirling clouds should cover us and be giving us rain. Right?

This is okay. Even though the core will be going the wrong way, the overall system is still huge....pulling in the moisture....and all that swirling clouds should cover us and be giving us rain. Right?

Not really. The storm is actually pretty small and it'll likely not impact our weather at all - as it appears right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

The GFDL model is bringing Don straight up into Oklahoma this weekend. The HWRF brings it up into the TX panhandle and then northward over the OK panhandle and western KS. All except the BAMD and BAMM bring the system northward over Texas and NM a couple days after landfall which would be good for our rain/cloud chances.

Venture, any model you particularly like over the other?

The GFDL model is bringing Don straight up into Oklahoma this weekend. The HWRF brings it up into the TX panhandle and then northward over the OK panhandle and western KS. All except the BAMD and BAMM bring the system northward over Texas and NM a couple days after landfall which would be good for our rain/cloud chances.

Venture, any model you particularly like over the other?

I always have liked the NOGAPS model for tropical weather, but GFDL, HWRF, etc are nice as well.

So looking at the models this evening, everything seems on track for a South Texas/Northern Mexico landfall. System will move W or WNW and eventually fall apart. We could get some moisture tossed back this way, but it really isn't look promising at all. So with that we turn our attention to the next system.

Invest 91L is about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles - so waaaaaaaay out there in the Atlantic still. NHC has it projected at a 30% probability for development. The model spread is pretty good with this and taking it W to WNW into the Caribbean in about 96 hours - give or take. Models are giving it a low chance of development right now, and a very slow time at doing so. It is still a long way out and really too early to say where it is going to go, how strong it will get, etc.

Half the models have it curving NE after 96 hours moving into area just north of PR and Hispaniola. There is a flaw with this think though...and that is the massive high over the Atlantic blocking any chance for anything to get through it. Pretty much anything right now that develops in the ITCZ in the Atlantic is going into the Caribbean and Gulf. Which could start to raise some eyebrows as we are about a month out of season peak...and these systems could do tremendous things for the drought areas. Well, in a sense. Unfortunately the rain will likely come down in gallons all at once and it'll just wash the top soil away and not to much, but the weeds will be green at least again.

Don has made landfall this evening in Texas and is rapidly falling apart. It should be dissipated in about 24 hours from the way it looks.

Two other systems are out there. 1) Is in the western Caribbean but is interacting with land too much so won't do a lot. 2) Is the developing tropical wave to the east of the Lesser Antilles. NHC has raised it to a 50% chance of developing and could very well be a depression in a day or two - if not sooner.

The next tropical depression should start getting advisories on it either late tonight or tomorrow. This will be Emily when it gets a name and will likely be a tropical storm tomorrow and hurricane by Monday or Tuesday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Latest forecast are almost all in pretty good agreement that the next tropical system could possibly recurve out in the Atlantic as it approach the Bahamas and US East Coast. The all seem to be moving the massive Atlantic High back to the east.

http://www.storm-scope.com/outlooks/7302011.jpg

Model guideance today on the system that will become Emily has shifted slight to the left today. A couple take the system through the Caribbean now, but the vast majority still bring the system on a WNW and eventual NW to NNW track as it goes north of Hispaniola, PR, and approaches the Bahamas.

http://www.storm-scope.com/outlooks/7312011.jpg

Special Outlook out of NHC

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
MARTINIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
THIS MORNING DETERMINED THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID FIND WINDS OF NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Forecast models are further to the left (west) today, suggesting the potential for some impact along the east coast - if not an outright landfall - in 4 to 6 days out.

Some specific models...
GFDL takes it east of the Bahamas and back into the Atlantic, possibly impacting Bermuda later. Max strength around 80 kts - or Category 2 Hurricane.
HWRF takes it along and north of the islands into the Central Bahamas in 5 days as a Category 2 Hurricane moving WNW...possibly with a landfall in Central or Southern Florida.
GFS brings a strong Tropical Storm/Hurricane into Southern Florida in 5 days and then rides up the entire peninsula until re-entering the Atlantic around Jacksonville where it'll move NE out to sea.
ECMWF brings the system close to southern Florida but recurves it out to sea before landfall.

Those with travel plans to Florida later this week and over the weekend should keep an eye on this, as those posts who love out there. If anything, this could help the severe drought in Southern Florida and the extreme/exceptional drought in Georgia and South Carolina.

http://www.storm-scope.com/outlooks/8012011.jpg

Advisories have begun on Tropical Storm Emily. Official forecast brings, then Category 1 Hurricane Emily near South Florida in 120 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511W5_NL_sm2+gif/233014W5_NL_sm.gif


TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW THAT A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND
OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND
45 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AS EVIDENCED BY THE
AMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK THIS SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A SINGLE
CENTER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 50 PERCENT OR
LESS AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN ASSUMES THAT
EMILY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HISPANIOLA IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
BEYOND THAT TIME...IF EMILY SURVIVES THE INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
IVCN CONSENSUS BY DAY 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA
AND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A
WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE
RIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST PARTICULARS...A VARIETY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD
0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL THE
THE FULL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0300 UTC/1100 PM AST/EDT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2330Z 15.2N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.6N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 16.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.4N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.4N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 26.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

Forecast from NHC is updated.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SO FAR...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB...
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR VARIABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.

FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS
BEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY. A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EMILY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 15.7N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.5N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1200Z 26.5N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 30.0N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

The WX channel has been showing a few computer models that take Emily into the gulf.

The WX channel has been showing a few computer models that take Emily into the gulf.

Here is the latest model spread. I put the Pacific systems on there too just to show no hope of anything coming up the Gulf of California to maybe swing some moisture our way.

There is a definitely a mass preference for a NW course east of Florida and out to sear, but yeah...there are a handful of models that went to go either into Florida or the Gulf. Not buying them just yet.

http://www.storm-scope.com/outlooks/8032011.jpg

I think the NHC will veer its track to the west in the next forecast update. Not into the Gulf but toward SE Florida. It is interesting though that just in the latest few runs the BAMS, BAMM and BAMD started to take this system further west. There is still hope lol.

Why are all these models so different on the tracks? Over the years, why have they not learned enough to solidly predict a storm's track?

I think the NHC will veer its track to the west in the next forecast update. Not into the Gulf but toward SE Florida. It is interesting though that just in the latest few runs the BAMS, BAMM and BAMD started to take this system further west. There is still hope lol.

Looks like they held off for now, but they are also waiting on Emily to begin moving NW again which she hasn't just yet. Hinting that if she continues this, they will have to modify the forecast to meet up with the guidance and show her coming closer to Florida and the SE US.


Why are all these models so different on the tracks? Over the years, why have they not learned enough to solidly predict a storm's track?

Certain models pick up on different elements...they all aren't coded the same. It is better to have some variety though to understand all the possibilities with systems, and not just be led down a path that will be wrong. Tropical systems are also a pain in the butt to predict. So many little things can happen to have the system act a different way than models can predict. Heck, there is even a chance this thing plows into Hispaniola and gets torn apart by the mountains on the island. It has happened before. Another thing is if it gets too far west, it could pull in drier air and choke it off. It is really more complicated than you know and these models undergo continuous updating to adjust for different forecast theories by their programmers.

Discussed the possibility and it happened. Emily has been down graded to a remnant trough today as the surface low completely opened up and isn't a closed circulation anymore. The NHC has therefore stopped all advisories for the system unless regeneration occurs, which is highly unlikely at this time.

REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE
CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Emily may be back tomorrow.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
EMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

If Emily does redevelop, which it appears it will, it will quickly move north and then race northeast out into the Atlantic. South Florida and especially the Bahamas will see some heavy rain, some gusty winds and clouds but that's it. Other than that the tropics are eerily quiet for this time of year. I honestly can't remember a stranger weather year in my lifetime.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL052011mlts.gif?540712133

Advisories have been restarted on Emily.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERS
AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID-
LATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY. EMILY
IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA
THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS
FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.9N 78.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 29.9N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 31.6N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 33.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Okay two parts. Official NHC outlook and then mine.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FORMED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Could see a few things develop over the next week to 10 days.

- Tropical Wave discussed above under #2 looks like it could develop down the road and move WNW north of the islands before recurving back out to sea.
- Another tropical wave behind it could develop a day or two behind that one and move mostly WNW to W and stay closer to the islands/Florida.
- Another system may spin up towards the end of this week off the east coast and move out to sea rather quickly.
- Yet another wave, behind the others, could move and develop in the Caribbean and move W to NW through the area up over the Yucatan into the Gulf and then landfall in Mexco. This would be towards the last half of the month.

Don't bet much on the above, just an observation of what the models are showing. I know some are saying it has been really quiet...but the peak is coming. Here we have the potential for 4 systems to develop in the next 2 weeks.

Active period in the tropics appears to be incoming - not a shock as we are now a few weeks away from the seasonal peak.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

http://www.storm-scope.com/outlooks/08112011-92l.jpg

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.storm-scope.com/outlooks/08112011-93l.jpg

3. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Four areas of potential organization now in the Atlantic basin. No major differences from the forecast tracks from yesterday.

- System 1 or Invest 92L appears that it will move NW and eventual recurve out near or to the east of Bermuda.
- System 2 or Invest 93L appears that it will remain moving W to WNW and potentially impact the Lesser Antilles in 5 to 6 days.
- System 3 or Invest 95L appears that it will remain off shore between North Carolina and Bermuda and move NE out to sea merging with a frontal system.
- System 4 or Invest 94L appears it will be somewhat similar to 92L and will move NW and curve fairly quickly out to sea and come close to, or move east of, Bermuda.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

System 3/Invest 95L has been upgraded to TD 6.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0611W5_NL_sm2+gif/205213W5_NL_sm.gif

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE PAST DAY OR
TWO HAS LOST ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED
ON ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER BUOY
REPORTS...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
NOT FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...FAIRLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25C AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 065/14 AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 36.0N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 37.0N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.5N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 39.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 40.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

TD6 was upgraded to Franklin earlier...but will be extratropical in the next several hours.

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN. PASSIVE
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...AND THAT COULD
BE WHEN FRANKLIN POSSIBLY REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 45 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ERODED
SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR AND COOLER WATER BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...38 KT FROM
CIRA-AMSU...AND 39 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/19 BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIXES. FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING EASTWARD OFF OF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FRANKLIN MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

FRANKLIN LIKELY PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IS NOW ENTERING A
WEAKENING PHASE AS IT MOVES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 26C AND WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO
MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN 24-36 HOURS INDUCING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO CAUSE FRANKLIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS LOWER
THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 39.0N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 39.9N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 40.6N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 15/0000Z 40.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/1200Z 40.0N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Franklin is now dead...TD 7 though is born.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0711W5_NL_sm2+gif/023912W5_NL_sm.gif

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION AROUND A TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT...AND BASED ON THESE
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE
WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD
BY 36 HR AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES BY 72 HR.
THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE FORECAST BEING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODEL FORECASTS. A POTENTIAL
COMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHOWN BY THE UKMET MODEL...
WHICH FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO EXPERIENCE ERRATIC MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ABOUT
400 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF SUCH INTERACTION OCCURS...IT WOULD
DELAY THE APPROACH OF THE DEPRESSION TO BERMUDA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE SYSTEMS ARE HELPING TO
PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION...
A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ARE
APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HR TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT...
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER. AFTER 72 HR...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 27.9N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 30.1N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

TD7 was upgraded to TS Gert earlier today.

TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...GERT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY CIRCULAR
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IS LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT FORMED OVER THE STORM IS
PROVIDING SOME MODEST OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40
KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
GERT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION. BY AROUND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN
ABRUPT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AS GERT APPROACHES A BELT OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 72 HOURS...PERHAPS
SOONER...GERT IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE AND
TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS
INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 345/10. GERT
IS MOVING BETWEEN A RATHER DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NEARING
THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK OF GERT AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 30.2N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 34.7N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 38.5N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 42.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 47.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Irene has formed in the eastern Caribbean. Moving toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, where it could be torn apart by the mountains. If it stays together it could possibly impact Florida or even go into the Gulf; a lot of uncertainty right now.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL092011mlts.gif?104207980

Hurricane Irene isn't expected to hit Hispaniola as much as expected. Shes going to just barely hit the northern side which is the least mountainous side. Anyone from North Carolina to Florida could get hit by a major hurricane by the beginning of next week. Best hope now is that she curves out to sea or goes more to the west and hits more land and mountains.

Hurricane Irene could cause some major problems along the East Coast this weekend. Depending on the track Washington, Philadelphia, NYC and Boston could all experience strong winds, rain and storm surge.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/images/resize/AL0911W5.JPG

Just saw this on another forum I frequent:


FWIW, the new 12Z European model has the worst case scenario for NYC... basically Irene makes landfall as a roughly strong category 3 in Cape May, NJ while heading N/NNE just over or to the left of NYC as a very large category 2... the storm surge from such a storm would be beyond imaginable considering the funneling effect of the coastline near New York.

Fortunately it is just one model, and there is still enough time for the path to change from that (though the European model is generally the most accurate)

Yikes.

I heard on the Weather Channel,that the last Major hurricane to hit NYC caused 13ft' storm surges!

It will be close regardless. The models have been trending toward taking Irene further east toward Cape Cod though. NYC getting slammed would be one of those worst case scenarios, just like Katrina was with New Orleans.

Now the models seem to be trending back west. The NHC puts long island in the bulls eye. This far out it will most likely be wrong of course.

Sorry for not being able to chime in on the first major hurricane of the season, and one that will be posing a significant risk to the mainland. It does appear things are shifting back west some, but the main thing that has been stable is that this will likely have significant impacts on New England...if not also the Mid Atlantic area.

The NC Outer Banks will take a direct hit Saturday morning. Depending on how much the hurricane interacts with land will impact how much it weakens as it heads up the mid-Atlantic toward New England. Most models are still showing another landfall at Long Island and hurricane conditions in NYC by Sunday morning. All of NYC will likely be in a Hurricane Warning by the afternoon.