View Full Version : Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011



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venture
05-31-2011, 12:29 PM
This thread will be used to discussion upcoming/ongoing severe weather events through the month of June. This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

_________Norman Warning Area Map __________________ Tulsa County Warning Area Map____
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png
Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | Blizzard Warning | Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Winter Storm Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Freezing Rain Advisory | Heavy Snow Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement | Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks

________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 _________________ Day 3 ___________ Days 4 through 8 ___
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob_small.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 ______________ Days 3 to 8 _____
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/day3-8fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)

*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

CoD NEXRAD Radar Mosaic
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif

CoD Visible Satellite Image (will appear blank overnight)
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports (Today and Yesterday)
________ Today _____________ Yesterday _____
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)

Useful Links
COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
NWS Norman Enhanced Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/

venture
05-31-2011, 12:33 PM
Very quick outlook to get this going.

June 1st - Some disagreement with models on how widespread activity will be. GFS wants to have widely scattered storms most of the day across most of OK. The other models keep things dry, so we’ll have to wait and see.
June 2nd – Mostly dry.
June 3rd – Dry.
June 4th – Dry across most of the state, maybe a shower/storm late in the far SE.
June 5th – Dry except maybe some showers/storms in far Eastern OK.
June 6th – Dry except in Eastern OK where an isolated storm could pop.
June 7th – Isolated storms Central and Eastern OK.
June 8th – Dry.
June 9th – Dry.
June 10th – Dry.
June 11th – Dry except for northern OK with a chance of a storm.
June 12th – Chance of a storm across the state.
June 13th – Dry.
June 14th – Chance of storms across the state.
June 15th – Dry.

FritterGirl
05-31-2011, 12:47 PM
Ah. Back to the drought.

kevinpate
05-31-2011, 02:53 PM
Sure hope 10th and 11th repeat for the following weekend as well. Would be nice.

Roadhawg
05-31-2011, 02:58 PM
Sure hope 10th and 11th repeat for the following weekend as well. Would be nice.

I agree... riding the bike down to Austin that weekend.

Thunder
05-31-2011, 05:47 PM
Venture, there is something wrong with your outlook. There are too many dry days. :-(

venture
06-01-2011, 01:52 AM
Ah. Back to the drought.

Appears so. GFS tonight has us dry through the 16th...but hopefully it changes. We might get some rain tonight/tomorrow if any of these storms out west could make it this way.

crimsoncrazy
06-01-2011, 06:19 AM
Oklahoma farmers need a couple weeks of dry weather to try and salvage what little wheat they have left.

venture
06-01-2011, 12:39 PM
Quick update...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2011

... MAY 24, 2011 OKLAHOMA TORNADO OUTBREAK ...

...UPDATED INTENSITY RATINGS FOR STORMS 3...4...5 AND 7...

NOTE: NWS CONTINUES TO ANALYZE SURVEY RESULTS. THE BINGER-EL
RENO-PIEMONT-GUTHRIE TORNADO IS STILL BEING INVESTIGATED AND COULD
BE RATED HIGHER.

...EVENT OVERVIEW...

STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
MAY 24TH. STORMS INITIALLY FORMED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
QUICKLY BECAME SEVERE AS THEY MOVED NORTHEAST. SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM.

STORM 1... CANTON LAKE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 2/0
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 6 NW CANTON 315 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 NNW LONGDALE 343 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 9 MILES
WIDTH: 1/2 MILE
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: AT LEAST EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 3... CHICKASHA-BLANCHARD-NEWCASTLE-MOORE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/1
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 SOUTH OF CHICKASHA 5:09 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S WILL ROGERS AP 6:00 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 30 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 4... WASHINGTON-GOLDSBY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 SW BRADLEY 5:26 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW GOLDSBY 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 27 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 5... PAYNE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 130
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 9 SW STILLWATER 5:50 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 3 SE STILLWATER 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 10 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 6... STELLA

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: UNKNOWN
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 1/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 E STELLA 628 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S MCLOUD 634 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 4 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.


STORM 7... JOHNSTON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF1
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 95
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW RAVIA 730 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 2 N TISHOMINGO 745 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 6 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

SoonerDave
06-01-2011, 03:44 PM
Hey Thunder,

Don't even know if you're lurking, but thought I'd let you know that it appears Massachusetts (of all places) is in the middle of a tornado watch with some counties under warnings. There's apparently quite a block of weather in the NE today...

venture
06-01-2011, 03:51 PM
Storm 2's rating has been upgraded to an EF-5.

STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-5
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 210 MPH
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: RATING BASED ON UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA MOBILE DOPPLER RADAR
MEASUREMENTS.

Achilleslastand
06-01-2011, 03:52 PM
Even tho we got average to above average amounts of rainfall here in central okla in may it wont take too much to drop us back into the fire danger/severe drought category. We need any and all the moisture we can get or its going to be a long july/august.

venture
06-01-2011, 04:19 PM
The Cleveland / Pott county tornado (or Stella tornado) has also been given a rating finally...of EF1.

STORM 6... STELLA

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 1/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 E STELLA 628 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S MCLOUD 634 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 4 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

Thunder
06-01-2011, 10:16 PM
Hey Thunder,

Don't even know if you're lurking, but thought I'd let you know that it appears Massachusetts (of all places) is in the middle of a tornado watch with some counties under warnings. There's apparently quite a block of weather in the NE today...

Maybe our peak season will be June or July. :-O

venture
06-02-2011, 12:03 AM
Maybe our peak season will be June or July. :-O

Our peak this year will most likely be April.

So far the annual totals are:
Jan - 0 (Avg: 0.3)
Feb - 1 (Avg: 0.8)
Mar - 0 (Avg: 4.1)
Apr - 48 (Avg: 10.4)
May - 9 (Avg: 21.3) ... this number will likely get revised a bit once all the surveys are done.

Going forward, June's average drops dramatically to 8, July - 1.8, Aug - 1.4, Sept - 2, Oct - 2.1, Nov - 1.4, and Dec - 0.4 Annual average is 53.9 and so far year to date we have 58. If we look at past historical records...June can provide decent sized numbers, but not often. Max has been 28 since 1950...that happened in 1995. Probably one of the most memorable for me was in 1998 (June 13th)...we had 22 that month and also saw my first Okie tornado (the El Reno one, then got a bit too close to the Lake Hefner one - oops). Since then we've stuck very close to the average if not below most years. July is absolutely dead...since 1999 we've only had 2 July tornadoes (2007 and 2010). August is the same...since 2000 only 6 (5 in 2007 and 1 in 2009). Obviously September and October represent our Fall tornado season, but those have really been hit or miss. September's highest year was 1992 with 16 tornadoes, while October was (as many will remember, myself included) 1998 with 27 tornadoes. The Oct '98 outbreak was one of those nights where they just would not stop well after dark. Remember Gary on TV that night saying something similar to that on air. November and December are pretty hit or miss. Since 2000 we've at 7 and 2 tornadoes during those months respectfully.

So no month is tornado free in Oklahoma, but we are past the peak if we go by 60 years of hard numbers. However, the Summer months can give us a crazy mixed bag of severe weather.

For those that have forgotten...from: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events


June 14, 2010 Flash Flood and River Flood Event in Oklahoma (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20100614)
August 18-19, 2007 Remnants of Tropical Storm Erin (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20070819)
June 13, 1998 Oklahoma City Tornadoes (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-19980613)
June 16-17, 2005 Derecho Event (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/050616_rpts.html)
May 27-28, 2001 "The People Chaser Derecho" (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may27-282001page.htm) - yes this is May, but still close to what can happen in Summer when we have a Northwest Flow setup.

Boo1083
06-02-2011, 12:05 AM
Ummm, I hate to break it to ya, but I think peak season for Oklahoma is over. I guess you could always go North to see some " action" :-/

MikeOKC
06-02-2011, 12:29 AM
Thanks for that great post, Venture. Something that really puts things that have happened in Joplin and Tuscaloosa in perspective for me are the 1998 tornadoes here in OKC. That was the one that messed up Lakeside Shopping Center on N. May. To me, that was pretty bad (see pic below). According to the NWS information you linked to that was an F2 tornado. Wow. Can you imagine an F5 through all that density? That shopping center would have been leveled along with a good part of Nichols Hills.

http://img862.imageshack.us/img862/1417/lakeside698.jpg

venture
06-02-2011, 12:58 AM
Alright, wanted to take another look down the road to see when we might see moisture from the sky again before the "Odd/Even" days before. So what can we expect over the next 7 days? Well I think Norman's afternoon forecast discussion sums it up pretty well. They are normally pretty lengthy...it was 4 sentences. Pretty much just highlighting we are currently in a mid-late Summer pattern right now, at least until a western trough can start to push this "death ridge" away. For those that haven't heard that term before, just refers to a very strong high pressure parked on top of us that makes scary faces at any cloud that wants to attempt to drop a single rain drop. So when will it change?

Fast forward to mid-late next week. First real chance of rain appears to be Thursday the 9th. Oh so disclaimer for those that are new to this little thing we've been doing here for a few years now. This is based off the GFS model and it is about as reliable (well not always) as a drunk monkey playing darts that is blind and just spun around while resting its head on a baseball tee. In other words, don't come yelling at me when it isn't raining on Thursday. Okay? Good. :-)

Thursday (Jun 9) the western trough is moving east and the ridge visits the Southeast US. So what does the setup look like? Warm to hot at the surface and very humid with Dewpoints well into the 70s. Decent wind out of the southeast. Eastern edge of the upper trough moves over the start with strong westerly winds overhead, however the bulk of the energy will go just a bit north. It will be flat out extremely unstable with LIs well under -10 and CAPE over 3000 j/kg. CIN will be highest along and SE of I-44, so storm formation there will be low. However, precip is being projected from roughly Weatherford up through Osage County to the northeast. Will there be a severe risk? Obviously. To what extent? Let's get into the next week first.

Friday (Jun 10) - Early storms will continue across Central OK and then attention shifts back to the NW. Plenty of instability around still. Storms look to fire up in Western Kansas and will probably track easterly or southeasterly. We possibly could see one of those classic summer storm complexes drop down from KS, but the setup doesn't look ideal right now.

Saturday (Jun 11) - Looks mostly dry. Ridge O' Death starts moving back to the west some and storm track pushes north again.

Sunday (Jun 12) - Upper high is bouncing around a bit and move east slightly, but almost appears we are going into a pretty zonal flow. Dryline appears to setup in Western OK and maybe a chance of storms late in eastern OK.

Monday (Jun 13) - Highlight Sunday. CTRL+C. CTRL+V. Hit enter to start new line for Tuesday.

Tuesday (Jun 14) - Looks like we'll have some energy push out across the southern plains and a setup for Northwest Flow. Late in the afternoon looks like a storm complex could form in Eastern CO and SW KS. Instability is there across OK, so we'll see.

Wednesday (Jun 15) - GFS is putting a bullseye of heavy precip in SW KS early and moves storms into OK and SE KS by evening. We'll see if this even lasts another run. Instability will be very high to extreme and upper winds will be pretty decent. May need to watch this one...for probable disappointment.

Thursday (Jun 16) - Another day of strong instability, but not as much upper air support. So probably pretty dry outside far East OK.

Friday (Jun 17) - Looks like chance of storms statewide most of the day. Doubt it happens, being the last day of this forecast run and it is always the most volatile.

One other side note. GFS is showing a pretty strong system coming on shore into the Pac NW towards the end of the forecast run (Jun 16/17)...but keeps it pretty far north. So we'll want to keep an eye on this and see if this will dive south into CA and move east from there.

We'll see what happens. Once these death ridges get setup, they are a pain to move...so you can probably tell I'm a little pessimistic about any precip happening. But hey...stranger things have happened.

venture
06-02-2011, 12:58 AM
Yike...double post. I thought it was taking too long to post.

venture
06-02-2011, 01:28 AM
Thanks for that great post, Venture. Something that really puts things that have happened in Joplin and Tuscaloosa in perspective for me are the 1998 tornadoes here in OKC. That was the one that messed up Lakeside Shopping Center on N. May. To me, that was pretty bad (see pic below). According to the NWS information you linked to that was an F2 tornado. Wow. Can you imagine an F5 through all that density? That shopping center would have been leveled along with a good part of Nichols Hills.

Yeah. It really only takes one tornado to make headlines. The Joplin EF5 occurred in an area that started as a slight risk, went to moderate in the afternoon, but only was put up to a 10% hatched tornado risk area. There were a few tornadoes in NE OK/SE MO/NW AR that day, but not a huge density. Did Joplin break records? Not really. It did move into the Top 10 of all time deadliest tornadoes in the US...but that record will be held (probably forever) by the Tri-State tornado of 1925 that killed 695 people. That tornado has the longest continuous track of any tornado in recorded history...over 220 miles. The costliest tornado in history? Unfortunately we own that one. The Bridge Creek-Moore F5 caused over $1.3 billion (adjusted for inflation) in damage.

The main point I'm trying to make...pure quantity of tornadoes doesn't equal a bad day. Sure we could have a day of 300 EF-0s dancing across the state, but most of us would be annoyed at them knocking over the patio furniture, messing up Grandma's hair, or messing up a roof or two. May 24th should really drive the point home. The Central 1/3rd of Oklahoma had 7 tornadoes (Eastern had a few more). That's it. Not the massive outbreak like the Southeast had or anywhere close to May 3rd. Seven. However, one of those was an EF5, two of them EF4s. That is a significant day. This has been a significant year. Since 1953 there have been 51 F5 and now 7 EF-5 tornadoes...or exactly 1 of these rare tornadoes per year. Of course this year has just been insane...5 of them have occurred this year. That has never happened since 1974 (six F5s during the Super Outbreak).

So I guess it depends on what people to call a peak. We've hit our annual average. We had nearly 50 tornadoes in April. We've had a very rare EF-5 tornado. I say this year has been pretty busy. We are just lucky the Binger-El Reno-Piedmont-Guthrie tornado stayed in the far West/Northwest Metro area, the Chickasha-Blanchard-Newcastle-Moore EF-4 lifted when it did, and then Washington-Goldsby EF-4 didn't feel like going into Norman. If those last two tornadoes stayed on the ground, we would have been dealing with probably 2 more EF-5s and one cutting through the heart of Moore, South OKC and point NE from there...and another right through Central and Eastern Norman. Hopefully people realize how damn lucky we got this year.

Boo1083
06-02-2011, 01:41 AM
Agreed, you say lucky, I say God's protection was over us. Don't yell at me for my religious views, not pushing it on anyone :)

venture
06-02-2011, 01:45 AM
Agreed, you say lucky, I say God's protection was over us. Don't yell at me for my religious views, not pushing it on anyone :)

No reason to yell at anyone's beliefs. Some believe in a higher deity, some believe in nature, some in themselves, etc. Whatever people believe in that allows to them to be a decent a person, that is their own personal business. That's about all I'll say on that though to avoid derailing the thread and causing a bunch of posts to get deleted. LOL

BG918
06-02-2011, 08:40 AM
So I guess it depends on what people to call a peak. We've hit our annual average. We had nearly 50 tornadoes in April. We've had a very rare EF-5 tornado. I say this year has been pretty busy. We are just lucky the Binger-El Reno-Piedmont-Guthrie tornado stayed in the far West/Northwest Metro area, the Chickasha-Blanchard-Newcastle-Moore EF-4 lifted when it did, and then Washington-Goldsby EF-4 didn't feel like going into Norman. If those last two tornadoes stayed on the ground, we would have been dealing with probably 2 more EF-5s and one cutting through the heart of Moore, South OKC and point NE from there...and another right through Central and Eastern Norman. Hopefully people realize how damn lucky we got this year.

I was thinking the same thing. The OKC metro dodged a major bullet last week.

Though I don't know if we'll see everything come together like that for a long time. The atmospheric dynamics that day were incredible. I still am amazed that even with the storms clustering they were still able to put down long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes.

Thunder
06-02-2011, 10:32 AM
I believe in Venture. Its my religion.

venture
06-02-2011, 11:22 AM
If you guys have a few spare minutes today, feel free to take this survey from NSSL on the wording for tornado warnings: http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.surveymonkey.com%2Fs%2FV2 CTAstudy&h=4cc62

Appears that they could be looking at improving the language used down the road.

earlywinegareth
06-02-2011, 11:46 AM
I grew up in Norman...local myth has it that Norman proper is protected by the So. Canadian River. Some kind of natural power source that forces tornadoes to veer away or dissipate. Some attributed the myth to Indians who lived in the area pre-land run days. City leaders apparently didn't buy into that and in the early '70s built tornado-safe schools to serve also as public shelters (Whittier, Longfellow, & Irving middle schools). They would herd us kids into the gym during storm drills only to have an expert come along and say that the open span of the gym wouldn't protect us after all.

Thunder
06-02-2011, 12:46 PM
Del City has that myth, too. As far as I know, Del City has never been hit, except that far southwestern corner of the city during May 3rd.

kevinpate
06-02-2011, 12:59 PM
I grew up in Norman...local myth has it that Norman proper is protected by the So. Canadian River. Some kind of natural power source that forces tornadoes to veer away or dissipate. Some attributed the myth to Indians who lived in the area pre-land run days. City leaders apparently didn't buy into that and in the early '70s built tornado-safe schools to serve also as public shelters (Whittier, Longfellow, & Irving middle schools). They would herd us kids into the gym during storm drills only to have an expert come along and say that the open span of the gym wouldn't protect us after all.

I've never ever bought off the big open span structure as storm shelter, but I'm quite thankful for whatever spirits stand watch along the river and Indian Hills Rd. I felt the same way growing up for the mountain spirits who protected our valley. Call me silly, call me foolish. I don't care. I know it weren't me, and it weren't my pops who caused storms to pass us by. Momma, well, she maybe had something to do with it. She's strong, crafty, and not much dares mess with her, especially not regarding her boys, not even the troublesome one (and no, that wasn't me, well, not most of the time anyhows.)

ou48A
06-02-2011, 01:01 PM
If you guys have a few spare minutes today, feel free to take this survey from NSSL on the wording for tornado warnings: http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.surveymonkey.com%2Fs%2FV2 CTAstudy&h=4cc62

Appears that they could be looking at improving the language used down the road.

Good idea^

Particularly if people are above ground they would probably be better protected if they were advised by NOAA to put on as much heavy winter clothing as they can stand ,,,,, compared to pillows and other items that would be more likely to blow off of a person. The heavy clothing would stay on a person and small kids for much longer periods of time.

Rather than calling a tornado watch a particularly dangerous situation I believe it would be better understood by the public if it was called a high risk tornado watch. They should assign each watch a risk number much like the WX channels Torcon index and if possible break down the high/low risk areas within the watch.

The other day they issued a significant weather advisory for several central OK counties that said Tornadoes would be moving into central OK by a certain time. They should do this more often and be quicker to do it, but perhaps call it an area tornado advisory.

On high risk days they should use very specific language that points directly at the management of schools and businesses and do it in a way that makes management think very hard about the safety of students and employees. The TV METís and local media should also convey this same message. I think there is a big disconnect between the weather industry and far too many in positions of management who too often just donít take the high end tornado events seriously or don't take the time to know what's going on.


PS Iím not on Facebook, so if anyone agrees with any of this send it to them if you wish.

ou48A
06-02-2011, 01:12 PM
I grew up in Norman...local myth has it that Norman proper is protected by the So. Canadian River. Some kind of natural power source that forces tornadoes to veer away or dissipate. Some attributed the myth to Indians who lived in the area pre-land run days. City leaders apparently didn't buy into that and in the early '70s built tornado-safe schools to serve also as public shelters (Whittier, Longfellow, & Irving middle schools). They would herd us kids into the gym during storm drills only to have an expert come along and say that the open span of the gym wouldn't protect us after all.

I know what you mean
The day after MAY 3 1999 I was told this by a real estate agent. She said that because of this Norman was a safer place to live than Moore. I told her that the tornado had crossed the river before hitting Moore and then I told her that this is the same river that supposedly protects Norman.
I then ask her why the same river would protect Norman but not Moore. I reminded her that Moore has had many tornadoes over the years but I also reminded her that it is a recoded fact of history that people have died in tornadoes in Norman.

I did not dare talk about a possible heat island effect.

venture
06-02-2011, 02:16 PM
I don't believe you need to be on Facebook to take the survey. It should just be a pass through link to Survey Monkey which is open to anyone.

Thunder
06-02-2011, 02:27 PM
I remember during May 3rd, a neighbor suggested that we go to DCHS and use their shelter (gym). She went. We decided to just stay at home. Brother kept screaming and crying wanting to go to DCHS. At the time, I never knew about such place is so dangerous.

silvergrove
06-02-2011, 02:34 PM
I grew up in Norman...local myth has it that Norman proper is protected by the So. Canadian River. Some kind of natural power source that forces tornadoes to veer away or dissipate. Some attributed the myth to Indians who lived in the area pre-land run days. City leaders apparently didn't buy into that and in the early '70s built tornado-safe schools to serve also as public shelters (Whittier, Longfellow, & Irving middle schools). They would herd us kids into the gym during storm drills only to have an expert come along and say that the open span of the gym wouldn't protect us after all.

I heard Norman is safe because that's where all the meteorology students and professors are at and the tornados are afraid of them.

BG918
06-02-2011, 02:57 PM
Venture, any idea when we can expect that upper level ridge to begin to break down? It looks like it's firmly in place for at least the next 5 days.

It doesn't look like anything tropical is going to move this way any time soon either. I'll be in coastal Louisiana next weekend and will be keeping my eye on the Gulf next week though.

venture
06-02-2011, 06:03 PM
Venture, any idea when we can expect that upper level ridge to begin to break down? It looks like it's firmly in place for at least the next 5 days.

It doesn't look like anything tropical is going to move this way any time soon either. I'll be in coastal Louisiana next weekend and will be keeping my eye on the Gulf next week though.

Looks like it might take another 10 days for the upper ridge to completely break down based on this morning's GFS.

Thunder
06-02-2011, 10:57 PM
I know there are technology capable of breaking up storms, but is there any technology capable of breaking the heat dome?

venture
06-02-2011, 11:51 PM
I know there are technology capable of breaking up storms, but is there any technology capable of breaking the heat dome?

The day that happens, is the day we've gone too far as a species on this planet.

jn1780
06-03-2011, 12:00 AM
The day that happens, is the day we've gone too far as a species on this planet.

Well, you know the conspiracy theorists think the HAARP project is used to influence the weather. LOL

venture
06-03-2011, 05:41 PM
Update :)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
219 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

... MAY 24, 2011 OKLAHOMA TORNADO OUTBREAK ...

...UPDATED TO SPLIT LOOKEBA-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE TORNADO INTO
TWO SEPARATE TORNADOES /NOW STORMS 2 AND 3/ AND UPDATED SPECIFICS
ON TORNADO NUMBER 7...

...EVENT OVERVIEW...

STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
MAY 24TH. STORMS INITIALLY FORMED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
QUICKLY BECAME SEVERE AS THEY MOVED NORTHEAST. SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM.

STORM 1... CANTON LAKE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 2/0
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 6 NW CANTON 3:15 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 NNW LONGDALE 3:43 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 9 MILES
WIDTH: 1/2 MILE
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 2... LOOKEBA

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 140
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/0
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 WSW LOOKEBA 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE LOOKEBA 3:46 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 9 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: TO BE DETERMINED
NOTE: DETERMINED TO BE A SEPARATE TORNADO FROM STORM 3 BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF GROUND SURVEY AND MOBILE RADAR OBSERVATIONS.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 3... CALUMET-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-5
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 210 MPH
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 ESE HINTON 3:50 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 65 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: TO BE DETERMINED
NOTE: RATING BASED ON UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA MOBILE DOPPLER RADAR
MEASUREMENTS.

STORM 4... CHICKASHA-BLANCHARD-NEWCASTLE-MOORE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/1
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 SOUTH OF CHICKASHA 5:09 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S WILL ROGERS AP 6:00 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 30 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 5... WASHINGTON-GOLDSBY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 SW BRADLEY 5:26 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW GOLDSBY 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 27 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 6... PAYNE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 130
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 9 SW STILLWATER 5:50 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 3 SE STILLWATER 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 10 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 7... MCLOUD

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 110
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 1/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4.5 SSW MCLOUD 6:36 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 3.5 S MCLOUD 6:39 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 2 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: EYEWITNESS AND SURVEY INFORMATION INDICATE THIS UPDATED
TORNADO PATH. MINOR DAMAGE IN NORTHEAST CLEVELAND COUNTY WAS
LIKELY DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 8... JOHNSTON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 95
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW RAVIA 7:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 2 N TISHOMINGO 7:45 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 6 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

Thunder
06-03-2011, 05:58 PM
We need rain. Maybe some thunder and lightning. A touch of hail. Sound of a tornado siren wouldn't be a bad idea...make it interesting and thrilling. Its boring around here. :-(

ljbab728
06-03-2011, 10:56 PM
We need rain. Maybe some thunder and lightning. A touch of hail. Sound of a tornado siren wouldn't be a bad idea...make it interesting and thrilling. Its boring around here. :-(

Yes, no, no, and no.

Thunder
06-03-2011, 11:09 PM
ljbab728, what would you do if a tornado made a touchdown on top of our new growing skyscraper?

ljbab728
06-03-2011, 11:26 PM
ljbab728, what would you do if a tornado made a touchdown on top of our new growing skyscraper?

I would blame you. LOL

Thunder
06-04-2011, 01:11 AM
I would blame you. LOL

Don't make Jesse cry. :-(

venture
06-05-2011, 01:49 PM
Going to try to bring hope to those that enjoy green gas and not giving their life savings to OG&E...

Today & Monday - Looks like some isolated storms in SE OK, with no much elsewhere.
Tuesday - May see a stray shower/storm in far NW OK, but most of the activity should be well back into the panhandle - if at all.
Wednesday - Desert.
Thursday, Friday & Saturday - Better chance for storms across NW OK down into other portions of Western OK. These are the people that need it the most right now, so hopefully it happens.

Sunday through Thursday - Grass should be entering a nice shade of brown.

Friday (17th) through Tuesday (21st) - Rain chances come up a bit, but we'll have to see. Chances would be state wide. Appears we will be transitioned into a Northwest flow during this time period with a large trough developing over the eastern US and ridge building out west. Severe risk obviously will be present. This will probably be a setup for storm complexes to move out of CO/KS into OK, which tends to mean more overnight/early morning activity versus the typical afternoon Springtime stuff.

We'll see what happens. 12 days out and the models will flip before then I'm sure. We may have a curve ball tropically, but I'll leave that for the tropics thread for now until things seem more imminent of effecting our weather here.

UnFrSaKn
06-06-2011, 04:37 AM
http://vimeo.com/24711068

BG918
06-06-2011, 12:09 PM
Going to try to bring hope to those that enjoy green gas and not giving their life savings to OG&E...

Today & Monday - Looks like some isolated storms in SE OK, with no much elsewhere.
Tuesday - May see a stray shower/storm in far NW OK, but most of the activity should be well back into the panhandle - if at all.
Wednesday - Desert.
Thursday, Friday & Saturday - Better chance for storms across NW OK down into other portions of Western OK. These are the people that need it the most right now, so hopefully it happens.

Sunday through Thursday - Grass should be entering a nice shade of brown.

Friday (17th) through Tuesday (21st) - Rain chances come up a bit, but we'll have to see. Chances would be state wide. Appears we will be transitioned into a Northwest flow during this time period with a large trough developing over the eastern US and ridge building out west. Severe risk obviously will be present. This will probably be a setup for storm complexes to move out of CO/KS into OK, which tends to mean more overnight/early morning activity versus the typical afternoon Springtime stuff.

We'll see what happens. 12 days out and the models will flip before then I'm sure. We may have a curve ball tropically, but I'll leave that for the tropics thread for now until things seem more imminent of effecting our weather here.

Northwest flow is a pretty typical pattern this time of year so hopefully we transition to that. Overnight/early morning lines of storms every few days with the occasional severe MCS moving south/east from Colorado and Kansas with clouds lingering in the morning/early afternoon before becoming warm and humid during the day is a "typical" early-mid June pattern in Oklahoma. This current pattern is straight out of late July and August...

venture
06-07-2011, 03:36 AM
Another tornado was added to the list...

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0/0
EVENT LOCATION AND TIME: 2 SW FAIRVIEW 3:47 PM TO 3:51 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): UNKNOWN
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: THIS TORNADO PRODUCED NO KNOWN DAMAGE BUT WAS OBSERVED BY
SPOTTERS. THE LOCATION IS ESTIMATED.

venture
06-07-2011, 11:27 AM
Potential for a couple isolated storms over night Thursday into Friday morning in the Central third of OK is remaining consistent now in the models. Won't expect a lot right now, but anything would be helpful at this point. Severe risk looks like it will be present, mainly damaging wind with a hail threat. Some chances for storms down the road a bit, but will wait for tonight's run to make another post about it.

Also today, if you smell smoke outside there is a very good chance it is from the Arizona fires. The smoke plume from those fires is now moving through the TX Panhandle and far western OK.

venture
06-08-2011, 01:57 AM
Going to take a look down the road to see if there is any chance of the heat dome finally break down and moving away for a bit. As usual, forecast reliability is pretty low as we go further out in the forecast...so don't come after me when something doesn't happen. LOL

Today through Friday AM - Dry. Hot. Gross. Ugh. Also, smoke from AZ will be hanging overhead so it will be hazy with poor air quality.

Friday PM into Monday AM - Chance of storms will exist along a cold front that will drop into Oklahoma to meet its demise. Best chances for widespread rain will be Friday evening into Saturday morning across North Central, Northwest, and West Central Oklahoma. Chance decrease through the period, but remain highest (well, as high as it can be in this setup) in Northwest OK. This will not be a consistent rainfall. More or less isolated storms popping up at various times during this forecast period.

Monday (13th) PM through Friday (17th) - Dry. Boring. yeah.

Saturday (18th) - May have a storm complex form to the north and head into OK. Right now forecasts are putting out heavy/widespread rain. Don't buy it yet. Upper air pattern seems pretty zonal, and not a NW flow which is favorable for storms this time of year. Severe risk is obviously there, but we'll see if this even continues to show up in a couple days.

Sunday (19th) - We do transition into a more classic NW flow as we get into Sunday however and seems upper winds will start to pick up quite a bit. Pattern should remain through Thursday (23rd), but winds will slow down quite a bit upstairs. Again, going out farther = lower confidence. Sunday appears to be dry, except for far western OK if a complex comes down through the panhandles.

Monday (20th) - Complex forms in KS/CO moves down into Central OK by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday (21st) - GFS is kinda crazy on precip amounts during the day on Tuesday from the complex earlier in the day (overnight). Dumps out several inches of rain...but lets at least get clouds first, then we can work on rain.

Wednesday (22nd) - Another complex forms in the CO/KS border area and dives south during the overnight/early morning hours.

Thursday (23rd) - Another complex or just left over convection from the previous complex, or new convection forming along the boundaries left over. Either way, chance of storms. Sidebar - GFS also brings a tropical system into FL/AL/MS area this day as well.

So there is some chance of rain coming up, but we'll see if it happens. Ideally, we'll get the hot stuff done now and have a decent July/August. Not holding my breath though. If GFS temperature forecasts are to be believed, we have the 90-100+ weather for another week and a halfish (or a week from Friday).

venture
06-09-2011, 12:16 PM
NWS Norman has added 2 more tornadoes from the May 24th surveys - bringing the total to 11 that day in the NWS Norman area.

Detail: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20110524

Also added the information to the Storm Scope blog: http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=108

venture
06-09-2011, 03:35 PM
Watch will be issued once storms get cranking tonight. HRRR models do indicate the line could approve I-35 later this evening before falling apart. Extremely strong/damaging winds and large hail are main threats.

Storm Scope Forum Link: http://www.storm-scope.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=23#p62

Storm Scope Blog Post: http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=110

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1158.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS/ N-CNTRL INTO SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX
LOW ROLLING PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 092027Z - 092230Z

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. A WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY ONCE STORM INITIATION IS
IMMINENT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DUAL SURFACE LOWS NEAR 40 MI WSW SLN AND
50 MI SE BGD ON A FRONT WITH A PREFRONTAL WINDSHIFT/CONFLUENCE ZONE
ARCING E AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE LOW ALONG THE CAPROCK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE NEB/KS/CO/OK PANHANDLE REGION...WITH THE TRAILING INFLUENCE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS
THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES ENEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. PW/S ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ARE HOLDING NEAR 1 INCH...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING TEMPS AROUND 100 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN VERY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WITHIN A DEEP
WELL-MIXED PBL...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 9 DEG C/KM. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR /40 KTS/ HAS OVERSPREAD THE
NRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHEAR FARTHER S
ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND A VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH SUPERCELL POTENTIAL--ALBEIT INCREASINGLY GREATER WITH FURTHER
NWD EXTENT. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL
THREAT /PERHAPS VERY LARGE NEAR AND N OF THE OK-KS BORDER/ AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..SMITH.. 06/09/2011

venture
06-09-2011, 04:04 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0454_radar.gif

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

WS 0454
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...WW 451...WW
452...WW 453...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SLN SWWD INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE WEST OF CDS. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW/MID LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE GENERATION OF SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS...AND SOME SUPERCELLS IN KS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.

venture
06-09-2011, 08:24 PM
Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
822 pm cdt thu jun 9 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Western custer county in western oklahoma...
Eastern roger mills county in western oklahoma...

* until 845 pm cdt

* at 822 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near hammon...moving
east at 30 mph.

* locations in the warning include butler...foss reservoir...hammon
and stafford.

Thunder
06-09-2011, 08:42 PM
Now that is shocking. :-O

Thunder
06-09-2011, 09:34 PM
http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Live_Wire_Oklahoma_Severe_Weather_June_9

Come celebrate with us! We're watching and waiting for the storms to arrive, that is if they hold on. :-)

Thunder
06-09-2011, 11:27 PM
No luck for the most of us as those storm continued to die down. Northern metro get itsy bitsy rain, but not much.

Bunty
06-10-2011, 12:03 AM
Meanwhile, here is a special weather statement for counties straight north of Oklahoma City:

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory...
This significant weather advisory is for garfield...grant...kay...
Kingfisher...logan...noble and payne counties. Strong and gusty winds will emerge from an area of collapsing showers moving east across north central oklahoma. Frequent wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range may be expected...along with occasional gusts to 60 mph or somewhat higher. The strongest gusts are most likely to be felt from lahoma over to enid and and perry. In addition to strong wind gusts...the air will dry out very quickly and the temperature will rise. Temperatures well into the 90s will be possible until the wind subsides. Hazards include...
Occasional wind gusts to 60 mph...

Jesseda
06-10-2011, 01:52 PM
so on may 24th, how many tornados where in or around moore... I saw for myself and there is video of it on youtube to back me up about powerflashes on i-35 infront of warren theater

venture
06-10-2011, 02:04 PM
so on may 24th, how many tornados where in or around moore... I saw for myself and there is video of it on youtube to back me up about powerflashes on i-35 infront of warren theater

None came into the city limits, the closest would have been the one on the far SW side of OKC...the Chickasha EF-4.