WW 325 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 221830Z - 230200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30WNW JEF/JEFFERSON CITY MO/ - 30S MKO/MUSKOGEE OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /21W COU - 31NE MLC/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0325_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW
323...WW 324...

DISCUSSION...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SERN KS AND NERN
OK. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG.
THE PRESENCE OF 35-40 KT WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. MOREOVER...SWRN EXTENSION
OF A 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND AN
ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

WT 0325
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 90%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 600
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO



Eastern Watch is up...until 9 PM details in a sec.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MAYES MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA ROGERS
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON

SPC AWW 221844
WW 326 TORNADO OK TX 221850Z - 230200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NNW MLC/MCALESTER OK/ - 40SSW MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /23NNW MLC - 65WNW ACT/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0326_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW
323...WW 324...WW 325...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING ERODES
REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE
WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

WT 0326
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 90%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27020
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO


Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
tornado watch outline update for wt 326
nws storm prediction center norman ok
150 pm cdt sun may 22 2011

tornado watch 326 is in effect until 900 pm cdt for the
following locations

okc005-013-019-029-049-063-067-069-081-085-095-099-119-123-125-
133-230200-
/o.new.kwns.to.a.0326.110522t1850z-110523t0200z/

ok
. Oklahoma counties included are

atoka bryan carter
coal garvin hughes
jefferson johnston lincoln
love marshall murray
payne pontotoc pottawatomie
seminole

Didn't get a chance to put this yesterday...but appears we had 3 additional tornadoes yesterday based on reports. 1 mile ESE of Hickory had one. Another was 2 NW Vanoss. Then 1 went from 8 W of Ada to 4 WNW of Ada. We'll see if this is confirmed on there being 3 or less/more based on surveys.

Short term...storms are forming in SE KS now, with one severe. Looks like the immediate OKC area should stay dry today. The dryline is now mix east of I-35 fairly quickly as we dry out a bit here. Dewpoints are down in the 50s here well into the 70s just east. CU development continues in both Northern and Southern OK along the dryline. Short term models keep coverage isolated, but anything that does develop will like go severe and be capable of producing a tornado.

Tomorrow looks like more of a threat for the OKC area, as we are already under a moderate risk for that. Any activity today/tonight will impact tomorrow though, so won't do more than report the SPC outlook.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND LWR GREAT LAKES....

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW...LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...WILL SHIFT ENEWD INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO SRN KS/NRN OK LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WRN STATES AND PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NV/SRN CA... WILL BE EJECTED EWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS OK/TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN DRYLINE FURTHER WEST TOMORROW THAN TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEAR A P28-LTS-EAST OF ABI LINE AT LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS A LARGE AREA...WITH THE INGREDIENTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK MOST FAVORABLE FOR GREATER SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION/MCS MAY BE ONGOING PORTIONS OF SRN OK/NRN KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT MOSTLY EWD WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO AR/MO. GIVEN AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE FRONT...WITH EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED IN NRN OK. AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD INTO AR/MO...AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY GIVEN LARGE SOURCE OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF CONVECTION. WITH HEATING...EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORMS REDEVELOPING NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE IN OK AND SRN KS. THE MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COMBINED WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...AND THE MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER AND VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE IN NRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NRN TX/OK/SRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS OR TWO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL INTO AR AND MO.

Things are still pretty quiet. Had a couple more cells try to go up, but they have since fallen apart. The Okemmah cell is barely hanging on, but still has the change to develop as it continues to move NE. We do have a severe storm south of Ardmore moving up from Texas with some large hail right now.

So I wanted to take this time to make mention of Tuesday, which is projected to be pretty significant at this point. Here is the SPC outlook...It is currently under a slight risk, but it is very rare for them to go Moderate 3 days out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF QUEBEC ...A TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD IS MORE UNCLEAR...AS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S..MIGRATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO EASTERN KANSAS.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...AND A REMNANT PRECEDING IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF MODEST FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...SHOULD SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD.
WITH LOW-LEVELS REMAINING SEASONABLY MOIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PLAINS CYCLONE...EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SEASONABLY STRONG. THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES PERSISTS...AND IS TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THE PRESENT TIME TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE GREATER THAN SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES. TIMING OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS ONE ISSUE... AND THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...APPEARS PROBABLE NEAR THE DEEPENING CYCLONE AND AN EASTWARD SURGING DRY LINE...AS A 60-80 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET NOSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER JET...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET TO AROUND 50 KT...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY FINALLY WANES.

..KERR.. 05/22/2011

*demonically laughs*

http://images.wikia.com/facepalm/images/3/32/Facepalm.jpg

Storms are building back closer to the Metro area now as the dryline retreats. We are covering it live in the http://www.storm-scope.com chat room. A lot of reports of significant hail in the state today too.

Looks like horrible storm hits Joplin.....

It will be interesting to see how far the dryline retreats tomorrow. The upper level conditions should be even better tomorrow than they were today if there is sufficient heating/clearing ahead of storm initiation like there was today.

It appears there is considerable damage in Joplin after a tornado hit a major commercial area. I-44 is closed due to debris.

Dryline has just moved to the north side of Norman. It should retreat all the way back to the west tonight. We'll have to see how much convection we have tonight/tomorrow morning that will complicate things tomorrow.

Thoughts are with Joplin tonight.

Thank GOD that dryline stayed east.. wow.

Ww 335 tornado ar mo ok 230150z - 230900z axis..140 statute miles east and west of line..
50ene flp/flippin ar/ - 45ese rkr/poteau ok/ ..aviation coords.. 120nm e/w /40wnw arg - 41sse fsm/ hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..70 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28035.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0335_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ARKANSAS
THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 140 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 330. WATCH NUMBER 330 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
850 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 323...WW 325...WW 326...WW 327...WW
329...WW 332...WW 333...WW 334...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN AR. THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING REVEALED A
RELATIVELY MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF NRN AR...THUS A RISK FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOW/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY THE CELL MERGERS AND BOWING SEGMENTS...AS WELL
AS THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN A RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS OK/AR IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

WT 0335
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 28035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Looks like horrible storm hits Joplin.....

This severe storm season has been horrible for the country.

and hitting a hospital, that's some lousy luck.

Just awful about Joplin. The photos of the hospital are hard to look at.

My husband flew up to Chicago this afternoon and they literally were sending the planes into circles to get around these guys (and I suspect to give O'hare time to find a place to put them).

Hopefully they got all the patients out of their rooms in time. Just terrible.

NBC/Ch 4 was reporting that there are two dozen dead in Jopin from the tornado. It was caught on a towercam video as it ripped through town and it was an absolute monster. Ground report from Joplin looks like scorched-earth devastation everywhere you look. Horrendous, absolutely horrendous.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfE6wGceA_A&feature=youtu.be

This isn't Oklahoma weather but it is close - the tower video of the Joplin tornado.

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=cwp&ctid=1527

Live Police, Fire and EMS scanners in the Joplin Area.. Very interesting to listen to.

I read on CNN saying 75% of the city was gone. :-(

The hospital was in a direct path, but I was surprised to see it still standing. I believe it was the only major hospital in the regional areas and they are getting help from everywhere, including OKC.

I have family in Joplin; both my aunt & uncle's house and my grandmother's house are destroyed. I tried to drive up there taking 66 (since I knew I-44 was shut down), but hit the storm in Vinita and had to turn back. I hear that the city is effectively closed off now to traffic anyway.

Given my familiarity with the city, looking at the pictures is incredibly difficult. In some pictures, I can't even recognize the area. In those pictures I can recognize, the Home Depot serves as my landmark and is only 2 blocks from my grandmother's house and about a mile from my cousin's. They said Duquesne (the Joplin suburb in which they live) is absolutely demolished. Very anxious for them to open the city back up so I can help them out...

They do have at least 1 other hospital that took most of the intensive care patients.

Robert I feel for your and your family. You'll be in all of our thoughts here.

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=cwp&ctid=1527

Live Police, Fire and EMS scanners in the Joplin Area.. Very interesting to listen to.

I actually clicked on this and in the span of 5 minutes I'm pretty sure I heard two emergercy workers discover 2 bodies a piece, with a third saying he was "running low on body bags."

I had to turn it off...just a bit too chilling to listen to.

Still working on the forecast for tomorrow and Tuesday. There is a reason why it is taking longer. I'm spending more time sitting at the screen looking at the models going ... "really?"

First thoughts...100% moderate risk next two days. No question. Just getting a handle on the specifics is the big thing right now and I don't want to over-hype anything that I would have to apologize for later.

My family is all safe, but having to sit on my hands, knowing that there isn't anything I can do until they open the city back up, is driving me crazy.

Venture, when will the storms here in the metro start up? Early morning?

Short term models are indicating that we'll have two batches. One north that will form very late tonight or tomorrow after day break. Those storms will stay north.

Another is the batch in Texas, but those will stay south of the Red.

Eh, I don't think we want to know what is in store for us tomorrow and/or Tuesday, since the latest trends with tornadoes hitting major cities across the country. :-(

Discussion thread for tomorrow on Storm-Scope: http://www.storm-scope.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=15

I'll be keeping that thread over there updated with more specifics, but here is my full outlook and ramblings for Monday only.
-----

Okay here we go. SPC outlook should be rolling soon, so it will be interesting to see how this compares. There is some disagreement between the short term models and the traditional medium range-type models (NAM and GFS or NAM isn't that medium range, but yeah).

Experimental NSSL WRF and HRRR keep OK mostly dry tonight, except for some activity in far northern OK/southern KS and in North Texas. They also keep the main body of OK dry for most of tomorrow, except for maybe a stray shower/storm.

NAM is pretty close to the above, but has precip a bit more widespread. It also blows up supercells from the OKC area and back to the SW and W.

GFS is the outsider here (but could be right) and has precip forming early tomorrow morning moving through Central and Northern OK. It also has activity in Western OK by early afternoon again and moves it east to cover Western & Central OK north of I-40. Considering how dry nearly every model want to keep today, I'm not buying it.

A wave will eject out into Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. We'll have a surface low develop near NW OK. We will also have a quasi warm front develop and lay across northern OK. Then we will have our good ol' dryline in western OK. It won't get as far east today that it did on Sunday. So those are our boundaries. There might be a few weaker ones laying around from Sunday's activity or will be around after any morning activity. Any unique boundary intersection is going to enhance any turning of the atmosphere in that area, not to mention additional lift to kick off storms.

So let's look at the forecast sounds. Wow. I have a spreadsheet where I plug in the values and help provide guidance based on the values. However, I really don't need it for something as loaded as this. The sounding for tomorrow is flat our stupid (don't get me started on Tuesday). Now, I want to point on that the highest instabilities will be just east of the dryline, so they'll be set off to the west of I-35 a bit. However, I've never seen so many very high/extreme indices get triggered on my spreadsheet before.

Instability. It's there. Severe indices are all in like to support tornadic, and strong tornadoes at that, tomorrow in Oklahoma. Monster hail will be probable again. Storm motions will be on the side of early warnings where storms only moving 15-25 mph. Cap strength, is very breakable - with values right around 1.

Are we going to have a major tornado outbreak tomorrow? I can't answer that yet. There will be severe weather. There will be large hail. There will be tornadoes. It is May.

I'm going with a high end Moderate Risk for Monday for nearly all of Central and Western Oklahoma. Far west may be in the clear if the dryline passes and far SE OK should be mostly in the slight risk area. Northeast OK will probably be in the moderate as well, but it really depends on morning convection...but it might not even matter at that point.

SPC will be rolling their outlook out here soon, but these are my thoughts. If they are wrong, they are wrong. I will always defer to the people that get the healthy government pay checks. To me, it just looks ugly.

Day 2 outlook is out (Tuesday) from SPC...they have upgraded to Moderate Risk with the headline "...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING..."

The moderate risk is for Central & Eastern OK...exact placement isn't available yet, but I wouldn't get too hung up on it yet.

Adding the map for the Day 2...generally along I-35 and east is the Moderate Risk.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

which is likely to be worse, mon or tuesday?

Monday's activity will have a direct impact on Tuesday, so let's get through Monday first.

Well didn't expect this at all, but it makes sense if they are biting on the potential for convection to fire overnight and last. They have downgraded to slight for the entire area due to uncertainty with any complications of ongoing convection.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN KS/OK/NRN TX AREA ENEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS TODAY...WHILE MORE COMPLICATED FLOW FIELD -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES WITHIN GENERAL WSWLY FLOW -- AFFECTS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY...WHILE A DRYLINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WRN UPPER TROUGH -- AND THE ERN FRONT/DRYLINE -- WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.

...S CENTRAL AND SERN KS/OK/N TX...
VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SRN KS/OK/N TX VICINITY TODAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ONGOING STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER WAVES EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. LOCATIONS OF ANY RESULTING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES...AND AREAS WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE...REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM. HAVING SAID THAT...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN AREAS AWAY FROM ONGOING STORMS COULD DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING. THUS...EXPECT AREAS OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR -- AND GROW RAPIDLY WITH THE AID OF MODERATE SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS EVOLVE...ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME CONVECTION LIKELY TO SHIFT EWD INTO AR AND VICINITY...AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND VEERS OVERNIGHT.

...AR/MO NEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITHIN A BROAD/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS THAT WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EARLY SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SHOULD RE-FIRE E OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST INVOF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A THIRD AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED STORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BELT OF FASTER SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE -- ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING THREATS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORMS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING AFTER DARK...BUT NOT BEFORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION AFFECTS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

...UT AND VICINITY...
PRONOUNCED UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WEST -- IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS UT AND VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RESULTING STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ATOP A HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS AREA -- EVENTUALLY FUELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON STORMS FROM THE GREAT BASIN EWD INTO WY/CO.

MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MODEST /20 TO 30 KT/...BUT POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT GIVEN DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/SUSTAINED CELLS. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WWD ACROSS PARTS OF CO AND WY INTO UT/SERN ID/ERN NV TO COVER ISOLATED THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS.. 05/23/2011

Some short term model guidance is showing initiation of activity by late morning/early afternoon which would throw things off for today. As of right now, it is all quiet out there with a shower or two scattered around. We'll have to wait and see what the morning brings.

What's the timing do you think. I'm flying into OKC this morning at 10am.

Morning convection was (as of right now) much less than expected. I think they upgrade back to Moderate Risk especially if we have the daytime heating we did yesterday.

Man, seeing what happened in Joplin and knowing what's happened here over the years, makes the next 48 hours pretty sobering.

Well I hate being the one that was right in this. We are watching a wave approach that was over Northern Mexico early this morning. As this moves over, more widespread severe storms will start to develop across the body of Oklahoma. Tornado threat is going to be higher near any left over boundaries from yesterday and this morning's activity.

We are back under a moderate risk for nearly all of OK except for extreme western, southern and southeast OK.

Here is the Norman AFD from this morning...probably one of the most strongly worded ones you'll ever see.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NEXT 2 DAYS.

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THIS MORNING THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE AREA IS UNDISTURBED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION... AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE MOMENT. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AGAIN BY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES 3000-5000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /0-6KM/ IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER TODAY OVER THE MOIST SECTOR WITH MAGNITUDES 45-60KT OR SO BY 00Z THIS EVENING... VS 35-45KT SUNDAY EVENING. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES AN OMINOUS-LOOKING IMPULSE OVER N MEXICO MOVING RAPIDLY ENE. THIS FEATURE EXTRAPOLATES TO N TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PROBABLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE AREA OF DRYING ALOFT. BASED ON 06Z NAM WE WILL NOT HAVE THE DRYLINE IN THE AREA AS A FOCUS... IT REMAINS NEAR OUR W BORDER... BUT NAM INDICATES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BLOWING UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA 18-21Z. THIS MAY BE CONNECTED TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW NEAR EL PASO. UNLIKE THE LAST 2 DAYS WHEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE PRECLUDED MORE THAN A
SLIGHT RISK... WE MAY HAVE THE OPPOSITE PROBLEM TODAY WITH STORMS BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS AND UPDRAFT COMPETITION LIMITING THE CHANCES OF ANY ONE STORM TO MAINTAIN DOMINANCE. BUT WITH ALL ELSE SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS TODAY... WE ARE DISCUSSING THE SITUATION FURTHER WITH SPC AND WILL GO TO A MODERATE RISK IN THE UPCOMING HWO. WE PLAN TO DO ANOTHER 18Z SOUNDING TODAY.

TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN WORSE IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW STORMS EVOLVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AXIS OF VERY POTENT NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NM EARLY TUE AND DRIVE E INTO W TX BY 18Z. EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE RELATIVELY EARLY IN OK ON TUE AND LEAD TO AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION. IF CAP HOLDS OFF INITIATION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO FROM STRONG TO EXTREME.. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK PER SWODY2.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS FOR LATE MAY COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSE 992-ISH SURFACE LOW - ALSO UNSEASONABLY STRONG FOR LATE MAY. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY OUT W TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE... AND FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. GFS-MOS GUIDANCE GIVES US 30-35 KT OVER W OK... AND 35-45 KT OVER W KS AND NW TX. THIS IS VERY REMARKABLE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING. WE WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT STRONG... BUT VERY WELL MAY BE LOOKING AT WIND ADVISORIES ON EITHER OR BOTH DAYS.

COOLER ALL AREAS WED AS SYSTEM WINDS UP AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER E KS. MAY BE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS OR SOME RELATIVELY WEAK COLD-POOL CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY N OK.

EXTENDED GRIDS BASED ON STANDARD INITIALIZATION WITH MINOR RETOOLING TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS. KEEPING IT DRY FOR NOW... BUT THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THE TUE-WED SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD PLACE US BACK INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. POPS ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AT SOME POINT... BUT THERE IS PRESENTLY TOO MUCH VARIANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO EVEN BEGIN TO SAY WHEN AND WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE.

We are in the chat room already this morning. I reset everything. Please, if you are a reg - send me an email at info@chatokc.com and I'll send you an invite to where you won't have to get unmoderated every time you enter the room. :)

Two main things to watch today which will affect tomorrow:

1. Coverage of storms. If there are lots of storms that develop, especially several clusters, the tornado threat won't be as high but there will still be the possibility of hail, high winds and very heavy rain/flash flooding.

2. Lingering storms tomorrow. If the first wave goes through and then there is another, or just morning convection due to the moist unstable airmass, that will limit the severe potential tomorrow. It doesn't appear that will be an issue today though as even where there were morning storms/clouds in NE Oklahoma it is expected to clear later this morning. Central OK is clear with temps. and dewpoints already in the 70's.

Isolated storms on the dryline this afternoon could be tornado producers. We will just have to watch and see what happens.

Well I hate being the one that was right in this. We are watching a wave approach that was over Northern Mexico early this morning. As this moves over, more widespread severe storms will start to develop across the body of Oklahoma. Tornado threat is going to be higher near any left over boundaries from yesterday and this morning's activity.

We are back under a moderate risk for nearly all of OK except for extreme western, southern and southeast OK.

What do you mean by "wave" ... storms or what?

Rather than repeat the forecast - here's our thoughts. Plan on chasing today and tomorrow. Tomorrow could be particularly dangerous. Stay weather aware!

Hook-Echo.com Severe Weather Blog (http://hook-echo.com/hook-echo-severe-weather-blog/)

All I can say is that humidity is staggering. Wow.

All I can say is that humidity is staggering. Wow.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png

The dryline will be the yellow and westward. Anything east of that will be where the areas will be critical for a disaster repeat.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110523_1630.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_20110523_1630_prt.gif


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOUTHWEST MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...INTO NY/PA AND
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

A VERY COMPLEX CONVECTIVE DAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR DFW TODAY...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG AND A WEAK CAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS WEST TX WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN OK. STORMS
WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH RISK OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT... GENERAL MODEL CONCENSUS SUGGESTS STORMS MAY GROW
UPSCALE OVERNIGHT WITH AN MCS TRACKING TO AR WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

so mister Thunder, r u taking over ventures job? jk.. I hope we dont get anything like joplin, but i do hope something takes my lemon of a car and mangles it, i really want a different car, My car isnt that old but has problems like very 6 months sincei have bought it!

I am his assistant.

I am his assistant.

Call me shocked. :-P

Anyway. Initiation should be taking place in about 2-3 hours across western OK. Storms will probably be nearing the Metro are by 5-7PM.

I love you, too.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS EAST OF A WOODWARD TO ALTUS LINE...AND NORTH OF
A FREDERICK TO WAURIKA TO HOLDENVILLE LINE. THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO HOMES...CARS AND VEGETATION POSSIBLE FROM HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 65 MPH.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE TO NEAR
THE BORDER OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA REMAINS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH... WITH OTHER STORMS POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE VERY UNSTABLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AND WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS...
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 65 MPH... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

Tomorrow and onward...


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERACTS WITH A
STRENGTHENING DRYLINE PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
VERY LARGE HAI...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

Tomorrow, a new SPC (or discussion) just came out with possible upgrade...

TORNADIC OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AS SITUATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...

I don't see it happening.

First off, I have always thought the weathermen here are full of crap and overdramatise things, as if they're hard up for action. I just watched the weather and they showed their predictor, which already seems to be wrong.

Second off, I don't think tornadoes can hit certain parts of OKC. The part I refer to is the inner ring of the OKC metro. I've been right all these years, and I don't myself being proven wrong anytime soon.

The inner ring I consist of is the square area surrounded by I-44, I-40, I-35, and I-240.

I just don't see much happening today.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX TO SRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK OVER
THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY TO SRN NY...

...TORNADIC OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AS SITUATION
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...

A CLASSIC PLAINS TORNADIC OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF A VERY STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS SRN
CA...INTO THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS
BY PEAK HEATING. A VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD
THE PLAINS AS 30-60M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS EDGE EWD. ADDITIONALLY...H5
SPEED MAX APPROACHING 80-90KT...AS NOTED IN THE GFS...WILL RACE TO A
POSITION OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY 25/00Z WHICH WILL GENERATE VERY
STRONG SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FOR AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER
REGION...NWD INTO KS AND EVEN SRN NEB. NEEDLESS TO SAY A VERY
DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TIME FAVORABLY FOR RAPID SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS ATMOSPHERIC
HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.

EARLY IN THE MORNING A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING
WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM KS EWD INTO MO AND
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS REGION OF ASCENT AND STORMS MAY
TEMPORARILY FORCE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO NRN AR...NWWD INTO SRN
KS. HOWEVER...A NWD RETREAT IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN KS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FOR THIS
REASON IT APPEARS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM NRN
TX INTO SRN KS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED 5000 J/KG WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR EXHIBIT CLASSIC TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS KS/OK WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 50-60KT. BY MID AFTERNOON...STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE NOTED
ALONG/WEST OF THE DRYLINE FORCING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE
90S...EFFECTIVELY REMOVING INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 21Z...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP MUCH QUICKER WITHIN THE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SFC LOW WITHIN STRONGEST
UPSLOPE FLOW.

WHILE DRYLINE SUPERCELLS LIFE CYCLE WILL BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN
21Z-04Z...STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A ZONE OF CONCENTRATED SEVERE NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS KS/NEB INTO MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

megax11, be patience. It takes time for these storms to form and so on. No one is saying anything about a tornado will definitely hit the inner metro ring. Relax. And don't pay much attention to those gadgets they show on television.

I don't see it happening.

First off, I have always thought the weathermen here are full of crap and overdramatise things, as if they're hard up for action. I just watched the weather and they showed their predictor, which already seems to be wrong.

Second off, I don't think tornadoes can hit certain parts of OKC. The part I refer to is the inner ring of the OKC metro. I've been right all these years, and I don't myself being proven wrong anytime soon.

The inner ring I consist of is the square area surrounded by I-44, I-40, I-35, and I-240.

I just don't see much happening today.

Luckily the information here isn't from the guys on TV you don't like. :)

A tornado can hit any part of the city it wants to, it is just a matter of time. People thought for years Norman couldn't be hit, than the EF-4 last year.

I don't see it happening.

First off, I have always thought the weathermen here are full of crap and overdramatise things, as if they're hard up for action. I just watched the weather and they showed their predictor, which already seems to be wrong.

Second off, I don't think tornadoes can hit certain parts of OKC. The part I refer to is the inner ring of the OKC metro. I've been right all these years, and I don't myself being proven wrong anytime soon.

The inner ring I consist of is the square area surrounded by I-44, I-40, I-35, and I-240.

I just don't see much happening today.

I work in TV and yes the TV weatherguys do tend to go with the worst case scenario, they do have their reasons and some of them are legitimate. However I tend to believe it when the weatherservice starts talking about it too. IMO they dont have much of a reason to hype..

A lot more clouds than yesterday, esp. east of I-35. If it stays that way it could limit the severity of today's storms.

You'd think that with downtown Fort Worth being hit as well as Nashville, that the evidence would disabuse anyone of the notion that they are geographically limited to where they can form. Dallas has been blasted as well a few times in the 50s. Had a great aunt in Dallas who was mortally afraid of tornadoes, that she would die in one. Then, when the one hit Oak Cliff in 1957, she panicked herself into a massive coronary and died. Turns out she was right all along...

A lot more clouds than yesterday, esp. east of I-35. If it stays that way it could limit the severity of today's storms.

Our storms are going to feed off the instability to the west of I-35. CAPE values are already well over 4000 j/kg and CIN is virtually gone. Clouds to the east are a non-factor for the Metro area.

I'm not so sure if its possible to "feel" instability, but something about today just doesn't feel right. Its cloudy but very warm and the humidity is absolutely disgusting outside, probably the most uncomfortable its been so far this spring. Plus there's a gentle SE breeze but the clouds are moving almost due west from what I can tell. Maybe its because I've got those images of Joplin stuck in my head, but I just feel a bit concerned about today and tommorow.


You'd think that with downtown Fort Worth being hit as well as Nashville, that the evidence would disabuse anyone of the notion that they are geographically limited to where they can form. Dallas has been blasted as well a few times in the 50s.

Don't forget downtown Atlanta in 2008 during the Final Four. Plus, my parents area in Collin County, just north of Dallas, has had one touchdown and a few very near misses in the past 3 years. This is in an area with about 4-5000 people per square mile. And I lived there about 8 years before relocating to Norman without ever experiencing such a thing, so the fact that a tornado hasn't struck the in-town areas of OKC means nothing at this point.