This thread will be used to discussion upcoming/ongoing severe weather events through the month of April. This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

_________Norman Warning Area Map __________________ Tulsa County Warning Area Map____
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png
Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | Blizzard Warning | Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Winter Storm Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Freezing Rain Advisory | Heavy Snow Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement | Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks

________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 _________________ Day 3 ___________ Days 4 through 8 ___
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob_small.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)

*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 ______________ Days 3 to 8 _____
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/day3-8fireotlk_sm.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)

*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

CoD NEXRAD Radar Mosaic
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif

CoD Visible Satellite Image (will appear blank overnight)
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

SPC Severe Weather Reports (Today and Yesterday)
________ Today _____________ Yesterday _____
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday_sm.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html)

Useful Links
COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
NWS Norman Enhanced Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/

Will do more of a discussion tomorrow, but for right now some quick comments.

First, updated the amount of information in the initial post of this thread. Added all the SPC Convective and Fire outlooks to make them quicker to see (when taking a glance). I'll be tweaking things a bit to provide links from the images back to their source or for more detailed information. If are more items we need to add, I'll do that down the road for the May edition.

Coming up two or three major headlines.

1) Extreme fire danger this week - BOTH Saturday and Sunday. Sunday looks to be the highest risk day for fire weather.

2) Slight risk of severe storms on Sunday. This isn't set in stone yet due to the strong cap we'll have in place.

3) Strong cold front will be coming through Monday making it much cooler than what we'll have this weekend. Don't be shocked if someone hits 100 somewhere in the state this weekend.

Risk is increasing for some higher end severe weather for Sunday now. Risk area is now covering most of Oklahoma.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2011

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM
THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING/DEVELOPING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING DAY
2...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS FASTER WITH EWD PROGRESSION THAN THE
WRF-NAM. BY 12Z MONDAY...A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. 60-90 METER 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM OK/KS TO IA/NRN IL DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
50-60 KT FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO 70-90 KT
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THE INITIAL POSITION
OF LOW PRESSURE AT 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE LOCATED OVER SERN
SD. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EWD INTO NERN IA BY 04/00Z...AND THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SSEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...AND INTERSECT AND
OVERTAKE A DRY LINE FROM ERN KS THROUGH CENTRAL OK TO NRN TX FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED ESEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY REACHING
LOWER MI TO THE OZARKS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WHETHER TSTMS INITIATE SWD
ALONG THE DRY LINE...S OF THE KS BORDER...THROUGH OK TO NRN TX. THE
00Z WRF-NAM/21Z ETAKF MEMBER OF THE SREF/12Z ECMWF DO NOT INITIATE
ACROSS THESE AREAS...WHILE 00Z GFS TO SOME EXTENT AND THE EACH OF
THE 21Z WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF SUGGEST STORMS DO FORM INTO OK/N
TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /8-9 C PER KM/... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
BULK SHEAR TO 50 KT INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS WARRANTED WITH
SWD EXTENT. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEN THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LARGE HAIL...SOME SIGNIFICANT...PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT REACHING
THIS REGION AND PROGRESSING SWD INTO TX.

I wonder if the OU-PRIME radar is available for public use online somewhere? That would be fun to look at during a tornado! lol.

I wonder if the OU-PRIME radar is available for public use online somewhere? That would be fun to look at during a tornado! lol.

http://arrc.ou.edu/ouprime/status/

That will probably be all you can find outside of the campus network right now. It provided some amazing images of the tornado (that eventually produced EF4 damage) that went down Highway 9 last here on the east side of Norman.

Tomorrow looks to remain on track as a major fire weather day and also a maintaining a risk for severe weather. Both GFS and NAM 12Z runs are pretty close, though NAM is a bit faster and further east with the dryline. By evening is should be somewhere around 50-70 miles west of I-35. Looks like it will stall out around this area and we'll end up waiting for the cold front to pass through to push the risk out. That looks like it will happen early on Monday between 2 and 5 AM. Both models keep things dry with a decently strong cap in place. As the cold front moves in, that will start to trigger storms along it - with the highest chance in far eastern OK.

Instability in central OK will remain very high until the front pushes through. For the figures we are looking at LI values from -6 to -9 across the area, CAPE values around 2000 to 2500 j/kg, EHI 0-1km anywhere from 2.0 to 3.0, and EHI 0-3km from 6.0 to 8.0. LCLs look pretty high, so tornado risk won't be high. However, with the that will be present if a storm does manage to fire along the dryline (and able to bust the cap) it will go severe with the risk of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Winds won't be ideal for tornadoes as we won't have much backing from the southeast, but there will be a decent enough variation in wind direction as you go up.

Of course, the cap rules all tomorrow. Won't be shocked if we have a typical day with most of the ingredients for a very active severe weather day but the cap shuts it down completely. One of those days with a tornado watch up but not a cloud in the sky type of things. :-)

New Day 2 outlook from SPC should be out in the next few minutes. Will post when the update arrives.

Edit to add SPC Day 2 Outlook text...


FARTHER S/SW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...DEEP CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PRE-EARLY EVENING/ROUGHLY PRE-03Z IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AMID
A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STOUT CAP. IN TERMS OF NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ONLY SOME WRF-ARW MEMBERSHIP OF THE 09Z SREF SUPPORTS
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK/NORTH TX...WITH OTHER/TRADITIONAL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATIVE OF LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR PRE-DARK
INITIATION. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RELATIVELY STRONG
INSTABILITY/HIGHLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH A TORNADO THREAT PROBABLY LIMITED
BY A RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS FOR ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE.

No real changes so far for today. The SPC did move the slight risk a bit further east out of Central OK, but honestly it just depends if something can bust the cap today. Until the cold front & dryline move east, there is going to be a risk...very slight...but a risk for a storm.

Extreme fire danger today and probably into tomorrow. We won't see much help from the winds at all as they will stay up over night into tomorrow.

Hi, David.

Take a look at what Rick said.

http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/04/02/threats-of-fires-and-severe-storms/


However, temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will be quite warm, and that will limit the chances of any storms.

I posted a comment saying...


Can you explain that? How is it that much later in the Spring when we really get warmer weather, cap breaks easily (I have seen frequently how the weather men have said the cap need more daytime heating to break), but you are saying for tomorrow, such warm weather will limit the storm chances? Totally weird.

Your thoughts?

They always have excuses as to why storms/tornadoes is not spawning during the cold and hot weather. :-/

Its like, oh a cold core tornado during the fall/winter, then later on during the Spring, not enough heat, but we all know we have tornado-spawning storms during the fall/winter. Can they ever make up their mind and be consistent?!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0333.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...EXTREME SWRN MO AND EXTREME NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040251Z - 040415Z

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE /30-50% CHANCE/ ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK AND FAR SW MO/NW AR LATER THIS EVENING.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
STORMS BACKBUILDING SWWD FROM SERN KS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT 30+ METER HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
WEAKEN THE CAP SAMPLED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER OK. IN FACT...00Z NAM
AND...TO SOME DEGREE...00Z PARALLEL RAPID REFRESH MODEL BACKBUILD KS
CONVECTION SWWD ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY I-35 CORRIDOR
EWD AND N OF I-44 BY 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SSEWD
INTO THE 50 KT SLY LLJ AND THETA-E AXIS INTO MUCH OF ERN OK AND SW
MO/NW AR BY 09Z. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT THE WWD EXTENT OF
STORMS MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE OKC METRO AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY STAY
EAST OF I-35 FROM 06-09Z.

THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS FIRST FORM.
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE GENERALLY LINEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
COUPLE OF DISCRETE ENTITIES THAT MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE. CELLS
THAT CAN DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD BOW
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

Storm development so far is now down to almost Garber in Eastern Garfield County. The front is currently from Ponca City to Hennessey to Watonga and the dryline is running SSW of there just entering Caddo and Comanche counties.

Depending on how fast the storm can move down the zip line will determine if we can get some moisture here in the metro area.

Update: Cold front is through the NW sides of the Metro area now. No hints of anything else developing in the state right now outside of the activity in Osage county. However, people can shut the A/C off...cold front will drop temps 20 degrees. :)

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1034 pm cdt sun apr 3 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northeastern kay county in northern oklahoma...

* until 1100 pm cdt

* at 1035 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 3 miles east of kildare...moving east at 45 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include hardy...kildare and northern kaw
lake.

Appears to be rapid storm development in NW Cleveland county at this time. Already radar indicated small hail with it as it continues to develop. Other storms continues from Perkins and Cushing NE to Bartlesville and Nowata.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

OKZ020-025>030-037>040-044-045-TXZ083>086-040600-
LINCOLN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-PAYNE OK-CLEVELAND OK-GRADY
OK-MCCLAIN OK-COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-TILLMAN OK-COMANCHE OK-GARVIN
OK-STEPHENS OK-HARDEMAN TX-WILBARGER TX-FOARD TX-WICHITA TX-1230 AM
CDT MON APR 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND...COMANCHE...
COTTON...FOARD...GARVIN...GRADY...HARDEMAN...JEFFE RSON...LINCOLN...
MCCLAIN...OKLAHOMA...PAYNE...POTTAWATOMIE...STEPHE NS...TILLMAN...
WICHITA AND WILBARGER COUNTIES.

AT 1228 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR VERNON TEXAS...
TO LAWTON...NORMAN...AND CUSHING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. BY
1 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CROWELL AND GRAYBACK
TEXAS...TO DUNCAN...PURCELL...SHAWNEE...AND SPARKS.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 MINUTES BEFORE BECOMING
VERY STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH. MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE WIND GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH.

THIS WIND SHIFT WILL AFFECT FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. PLEASE ADVISE FIRE
CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION.

Currently mesonet is reporting winds of 50 to 60 mph on the west side of the Metro area behind this front.

The storm in Central OK is sort of stretched out with rain from near Meeker to Norman.

WOW. I was watching on GRLevel. It jumped 25k feet (echo tops reported from Tulsa) in about 30 minutes time.

Tons of energy out there still, but we have one dandy of a cap as well. These winds are going to be screaming for awhile and will be over severe limits in some locations. May not get the rain and storms, but won't be shocked to see some reports of damage from the non-thunderstorm winds.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

OKZ025-026-029-030-040600-
LINCOLN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-CLEVELAND OK-
1236 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND...LINCOLN...
OKLAHOMA AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.

AT 1236 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

Missed this advisory.

Submitted a question up above.

Thunder, he said in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. You need surface heating combined with cooler temperatures up top. When you have a temperature inversion, a cap is created and the "warm" air on the bottom can not rise above the warmer air on top of it. So, not much vertical movement in the atmosphere.

Widespread Extreme Fire Danger tomorrow and continuing through the week (see graphic at the bottom).


URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

.WITH VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY...AND A
RETURN TO MODERATE OR STRONG WINDS...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
TUESDAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032-039>042-045-046-050-051045-
/O.EXA.KOUN.FW.A.0013.110405T1600Z-110406T0100Z/
WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-
LOGAN-PAYNE-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-
PONTOTOC-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-
932 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS EXPANDED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...LOW TO MID 70S.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Fire_Danger_Graph.jpg

News reports coming via Twitter indicate fires in the follow locations as of 4:30 PM...

- Between Duncan & Comanche (Stephens County)
- Alex (Grady County)
- 1 Mile South of Sharon (Woodward County)
- Near Thomas (Dewey & Custer Counties)

Quick update for the night. GFS has been consistent for several runs now developing storms along I-44 in SW Oklahoma into Central OK and along I-35 up to Kansas on Friday. If this verifies it could be a definite severe weather day. Forecast soundings point to favorable conditions for severe storms should any develop and shear looks favorable for rotating storms. Still 3 days out, so things can change greatly. NAM is still not buying this solution, but has started picking up on storms in the state (but located in southern OK instead). We'll see how trends continue. GFS is holding the same forecast and NAM is starting to develop precip.

As I'm typing this, the new Day 3 has come out from SPC and they have picked up on it as well. Their discussion below...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif


...SRN PLAINS...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF A N-S ORIENTED
DRY LINE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO KS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THIS FACTOR...INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN ALONG AND E OF THE DRY LINE FROM ERN TX THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN OK TO ERN KS ON DAY 3. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK NEWD REACHING N TX/OK AREA BY PEAK HEATING AND
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG THE DRY LINE. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 50 KT AND ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY
LINE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

BY MID-EVENING INCREASING SBCINH SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING
TREND FOR NEW SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A VEERING
LLJ INTO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL...THOUGH
WEAKENING BULK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ERN EXTENT.

Maybe we'll get lucky and see some rain. As long as the tornados stay in the fields.

NWS and all the news stations are saying Saturday.

Working on the forecast now. Looks like we will have a potential for severe weather Friday & Saturday.

A few slight differences between NAM and GFS, but both develop precip in the state now. The forecast below is based on an average between the two models to help blend their thinking together some. It should be noted, as I stated earlier, GFS has been consistent with developing storms in OK.

Friday
By 7PM storms are forecast to be forming ahead of the dryline from near OKC southwest to near Wichita Falls. Instability forecast appears to be anywhere from 2000 to 3000 j/kg. Lifted Index values will range from -5 to -9 across most of OK east of the dryline. Convective inhibition values appear to be fairly low and cap strength doesn't look to be an issue at all. EHI values will be pretty decent for both 0-1km and 0-3km. Storm activity appears it will move NE around 35 mph and continue through most of the night. Don't see widespread outbreak from this but isolated supercells with the risk for hail and a tornado or two looks probably.

Will touch on Saturday more later. Right now GFS and NAM have it completely dry, but instability will be high as again.

Bulletin - eas activation requested
fire warning
oklahoma city fire department
relayed by national weather service norman ok
322 pm cdt wed apr 6 2011

the following message is being transmitted at the request of the
oklahoma city fire department.

Some residents of the jones and spencer area are being urged to
evacuate due to a wildfire. The evacuation order is for those people
located north of wilshire boulevard and south of britton
road...between westminster and douglas. You are instructed to
evacuate toward the north on either post road or westminster.

New Fire Warning...


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
OKLAHOMA CITY FIRE DEPARTMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
431 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
OKLAHOMA CITY FIRE DEPARTMENT.

SOME RESIDENTS OF THE JONES AND SPENCER AREA ARE AGAIN BEING URGED
TO EVACUATE...AS A WILDFIRE CONTINUES. THE EVACUATION ORDER IS FOR
THOSE PEOPLE LOCATED BETWEEN BRITTON ROAD AND NORTHEAST 63RD
STREET...AND BETWEEN POST ROAD AND ANDERSON ROAD. YOU ARE INSTRUCTED
TO EVACUATE TOWARD THE NORTH ALONG EITHER WESTMINSTER ROAD OR
ANDERSON ROAD. THEN PROCEED TO THE EAST OR WEST ONCE YOU HAVE
DISTANCED YOURSELF FROM THE FIRE.

NOTE: The ChatOKC.com room is now online and will remain live through Sunday. Comments are initially moderated, but you will be approved after the first comment and avoid further moderation.

NWS Norman highlighting Sunday as a potential "High Impact" fire weather day. Surface relative humidity values are expected to be well below 30% anywhere from I-35 to the west. Winds will be extremely high with gusts up to 60 mph in addition to a wind shift (front) later in the day.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Sunday.jpg

Slight risk for Friday is gone now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

Slight risk for Friday is gone now.


Its pretty much always been a conditional risk if enough lift develops and storms pop up. GFS is holding tight showing convection, NAM and others aren't. So we'll see what happens. If a storm goes up tomorrow, it will be severe regardless. The outlined risk area was removed since coverage won't be extensive at all.

More fires out there still. LW is up, but its not enjoyable anymore with Demoman2k10 talking too much, being to controlling, and knocking Ryan down. *sighs* Venture, is your chat up for fires, too?

Yeah the chat is running (check your email for the invite). I'll be out this evening, but it will be up through Sunday.

I don't see the email.

I forgot to mention in previous post that I was going to write about.

4 is doing a horrible job with the fire coverage.

5 is okay, not constant, but main feature going for them is online.

9 has been the one to provide the most fire coverage and superior videos.

So, yeah, I have been watching 9 for the fires.

I don't see the email.

I forgot to mention in previous post that I was going to write about.

4 is doing a horrible job with the fire coverage.

5 is okay, not constant, but main feature going for them is online.

9 has been the one to provide the most fire coverage and superior videos.

So, yeah, I have been watching 9 for the fires.

You don't see much helicopter coverage from KFOR. Maybe their trying to save on jet fuel. They need another sponsor, the Bob Moore- Loves- Chopper Four.

90 degrees in April and a few scant inches of rain since last july....I think we all need to start praying we get some major moisture asap.
Anyone have a extended outlook for the rest of april and may?

90 degrees in April and a few scant inches of rain since last july....I think we all need to start praying we get some major moisture asap.
Anyone have a extended outlook for the rest of april and may?

Here is a high level look at the forecast from GFS for the next couple of weeks. Any mention of precip encompasses the full 24-hour time period of the day, nothing specific like "afternoon" or "morning storms". Unfortunately, no drought busters coming. In all reality, our best hope may very well end up being a tropical system coming out of the Gulf once summer gets here.

4/8 - Chance of isolated storms Central & Northern OK. Severe probably with any storm that can get established.
4/9 - Chance of an isolated storm along the KS border. Marginal severe chance.
4/10 - Chance of scattered storms Western OK (mainly NW) and fart Eastern OK...central looks dry.
4/11 - Dry.
4/12 - Dry.
4/13 - Chance of storms mostly Northern half, more isolated south of I-40.
4/14 - Chance of storms Southern & Eastern OK. Severe possible mainly east of I-44 to OKC and east of I-35 to KS.
4/15 - Dry.
4/16 - Dry.
4/17 - Chance of an isolated storm. Marginal severe threat.
4/18 - Chance of storms most of the state - heavier East.
4/19 - Chance of storms most of the state again, better chance SE.
4/20 - Dry.
4/21 - Dry. Some instability around could pop a stray storm.
4/22 - Chance of an isolated storm. Severe possible mainly from Central OK north into KS & NE.
4/23 - Chance of an isolated storm far eastern OK. Severe Possible Central and Eastern OK.

Just wanted to highlight OUN's Thursday PM forecast discussion on the brewing of a possible fire storm setup for Sunday.


SUNDAY IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF
REPRESENTS A WORSE CASE SCENARIO. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT
SCENARIO...AND THE GFS IS TRENDING THAT DIRECTION. NAMELY...A
TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN KANSAS...WHILE A SURFACE LOW DROPS TO ABOUT 990 MB IN THE
SAME AREA. A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY IN THE
DAY...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEEP MIXING...FOLLOWED BY
THE LATE DAY ARRIVAL OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL FRONT AND SHARP WIND
SHIFT. THIS IS REMINISCENT OF GRADIENT WIND STORMS OF THE
PAST...INCLUDING SOME EXCEPTIONAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS. WE EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH...AND SEVERE GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

Slight Risk is back for mainly northern OK, but storms will be possible anywhere along the dryline.


...OK/KS INTO MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THIS EVENING...
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER EASTWARD
INTO MO/IL WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHEAST
KS DESPITE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO REDUCE CAP AND AID IN INITIATION. WITH
MLCAPES RISING TO 3000 J/KG SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OH VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAN BE
SUSTAINED IT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL. EXPECTED COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE INCREASING LOWER RISK
COVERAGE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

So here is what the models are currently thinking if you take them all and figure out the middle ground between them.

Isolated storm or two should fire early on the dryline in SW OK...probably around 4-6PM. These will move off to the N or NE, but don't look to go crazy. The strong stuff looks to form more towards early evening in NW OK and move off to the east, but die off quickly after midnight. If you look at the simulated radar products by the models - the NW OK activity has trended to be around two main large supercells while the SW stuff is mostly the junk convection that can't get it going.

Most models though are in agreement now of something firing today in Oklahoma...with the greater chance north of I-40. We will see what happens and I'll have the chat up all afternoon/evening.

Latest rapid refresh model has storm developing in Caddo/Kiowa/Grady county area around 4PM. Other storms firing between 5PM and 7PM in the OKC metro area and back to the west. Storms move out of the Metro area by Midnight and start to weaken rapidly.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011040816&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0371.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO NRN OK...S CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081926Z - 082100Z

WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO FAR S-CNTRL KS. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AND CAN BE
MAINTAINED.

WHILE A CAP IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING BENEATH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE NOW SHIFTING EWD INTO THE
OZARK MTNS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH SWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW INTO WRN OK MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG N-S ORIENTED DRY LINE ACROSS WRN OK...TO
FOCUS DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND DEVELOP AN UPDRAFT OR TWO STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THE CAP.

CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND
21Z IN THE VICINITY OF KFSI. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED A DEVELOPING CU
FIELD ALONG THE RED RIVER TO NEAR KLTS TO NEAR KFSI. WHILE THIS
CONVECTION REMAINED SHALLOW AS OF 1830Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
THAT MLCAPE VALUES HAD INCREASED TO AROUND 3000 J/KG AND THE CAP WAS
WEAKENING DUE TO SFC HEATING. SFC OBS INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WARMING
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO BEING MAINTAINED IN THE MID 60S ON SELY SFC
FLOW OF 10-15 KT. IN ADDITION TO THESE OBSERVATIONAL CLUES...HI-RES
MODELS /HRRR AND WRF-NMM/ HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
INITIATION LOCATION/TIMING. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLY...MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS BEING
GENERATED. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE INITIATION COULD BE FURTHER N
TOWARD N-CNTRL OK CLOSER TO A W-E ORIENTED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH IS ALSO SERVING AS AN AREA FOR WEAK
SFC CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS STRONGER HERE AND INSTABILITY
IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CUMULUS
IN THIS REGION REMAINS POOR.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN OVERCOME THE CAP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8.5
C/KM. STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES AND
RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS ABOVE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

18Z Rapid Refresh simulated radar: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011040818&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

I'll be in the chat room publishing comments for the rest of the afternoon and evening as this gets going. :)

Is that link a predictor or actual radar? Its confusing, cuz I see an explosive development coming toward us then suddenly disappear.

Is that link a predictor or actual radar? Its confusing, cuz I see an explosive development coming toward us then suddenly disappear.

That is the HRRR model. So no, it is not actual reflectivity that is currently happening. :)

So, its saying what the potential to happen hours away?

Chances are increase for development in the next hour in Blaine, Kingfisher, Garfield, and Noble counties. Also watching Comanche, Harmon, Jackson, and Greer counties.

First cell is now south of Waukomis and Enid near Bison in southern Garfield County.

Ww 108 tornado ks ok 082235z - 090600z
axis..65 statute miles north and south of line..
35n csm/clinton ok/ - 25ene cnu/chanute ks/ ..aviation coords.. 55nm n/s /45se gag - 39sw bum/ hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
536 pm cdt fri apr 8 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Garfield county in northern oklahoma...
Southern grant county in northern oklahoma...

* until 630 pm cdt

* at 536 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm near waukomis...moving northeast at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of golf balls...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include bison...breckenridge...
Covington...douglas...enid...fairmont...garber...h ayward...
Hunter...jefferson...kremlin...lamont...medford... north enid...pond
creek...vance air force base and waukomis.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0108_radar.gif

PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON
OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...WW 107...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR ALONG LOW-LVL
CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER N CNTRL OK. TWRG CU EXTEND SSW FROM THAT AREA
ALONG DRY LINE INTO SW OK. SFC-BASED CU ALSO ARE APPARENT ALONG W/E
FRONT OVER S CNTRL/E CNTRL KS. DESPITE APPARENT RIDGING ALOFT /PER
WV IMAGERY/...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOW-LVL
CONFLUENCE MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH LATE EVE. WHILE LOW-LVL SHEAR
ATTM IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES...EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF
850-700 MB FLOW AFTER DARK INTERACTING WITH EXISTING SUSTAINED
STORMS MAY YIELD A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

Looks like activity is going to start developing extremely fast. Majority of the updates will be on the chat room at ChatOKC.com, but will try to keep major things updated here as well.

We are now dealing with rapid developing storms across the state. Tornado risk is highly there. Severe hail producers. Latest report about 3" and higher is falling. Stay up-to-date on Venture's chat at http://www.chatokc.com to protect your life.

I could see the edge of the clouds driving home. Made me miss the rumble of thunder. Wish the rain was closer.

Slight risk has officially been put out for Saturday (as expected based on latest model runs).


FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD EASILY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S WHERE
SFC DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER-MID 60S. SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT NEAR DUSK AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND
BEFORE CONVECTION DECOUPLES FROM BOUNDARY LAYER.

Slight risk is also in effect on Sunday for Eastern OK mainly from Tulsa to Ada and to the east.


...OZARKS/SRN PLAINS...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY AS A WELL-DEVELOPED 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS. THE JET WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SEWD. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM NCNTRL MO SWWD ACROSS NW AR INTO ERN OK AND ECNTRL TX
ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BUT THE FAVORED MODE COULD BE
LINEAR...FORCED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STORMS THAT
REMAIN DISCRETE COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE FAVORED THREAT WITH LINE-SEGMENTS
THAT PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT GREATEST FROM NW AR
NEWD INTO WCNTRL IL WHERE A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IS LOCATED. IF A
SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET THEN AN
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS ERN AND SRN MO.

Today looks pretty close to a carbon copy of yesterday, just relocating the storms a bit further west. Based on the HRRR model (which was pretty accurate yesterday except for firing storms about 50 miles too far south) initiation should take place again between 4 and 6PM in NW OK. Between 5 and 7 PM we are looking at additional developing in Western & SW OK between Clinton and Altus. Storms will move generally NE and will remain West and North of the metro area...at least according to this last run. Considering how close it was yesterday, we can probably expect something to pop later but the exact position won't be known until it does (I know, duh. LOL).

Fire Weather outlook for Sunday. At 7 AM most of the state will have RH (relative humidity) levels at 50% or higher simply because it is morning. By 10AM the dryline is forecast to really mix east fast to just west of I-35. By 1PM it will be west of I-35 running from near Tulsa to Ardmore. It will slowly keep pushing to the east making it almost through the state by stopping short of clearing SE OK. RH values behind the dryline will drop to 10-20% and winds will be 20-40mph with gusts 50 to 60. Winds should slack off some by evening, but will still remain high.

Just in case you were wondering if it was unusually warm this morning (and yesterday)...

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...NEW RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT OKLAHOMA CITY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT WAS 67
DEGREES... WHICH HAS BROKEN THE RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR
THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 66 DEGREES... WHICH OCCURRED
BACK ON THIS DATE IN 1927. THE RECORD WILL OFFICIALLY BE SET AT
MIDNIGHT CST... AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 67
DEGREES BY THAT TIME.

...NEW RECORD WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT OKLAHOMA CITY...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT WAS 89
DEGREES... WHICH HAS SET THE RECORD WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
APRIL 8. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 88 DEGREES... WHICH OCCURRED ON
THAT DATE IN 1905

TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR OKLAHOMA CITY DATE BACK TO 1890.

Today looks pretty close to a carbon copy of yesterday, just relocating the storms a bit further west. Based on the HRRR model (which was pretty accurate yesterday except for firing storms about 50 miles too far south) initiation should take place again between 4 and 6PM in NW OK. Between 5 and 7 PM we are looking at additional developing in Western & SW OK between Clinton and Altus. Storms will move generally NE and will remain West and North of the metro area...at least according to this last run. Considering how close it was yesterday, we can probably expect something to pop later but the exact position won't be known until it does (I know, duh. LOL).

Fire Weather outlook for Sunday. At 7 AM most of the state will have RH (relative humidity) levels at 50% or higher simply because it is morning. By 10AM the dryline is forecast to really mix east fast to just west of I-35. By 1PM it will be west of I-35 running from near Tulsa to Ardmore. It will slowly keep pushing to the east making it almost through the state by stopping short of clearing SE OK. RH values behind the dryline will drop to 10-20% and winds will be 20-40mph with gusts 50 to 60. Winds should slack off some by evening, but will still remain high.

The outlook for Sunday looks like storms will fire in eastern OK. Any chance that moves further west? It looks like it was now I'm not sure.

Red Flag Warning for Tomorrow is now posted...


URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-023>030-038>041-044>046-050-TXZ086-089-
090-100430-
/O.UPG.KOUN.FW.A.0018.110410T1600Z-110411T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.W.0016.110410T1500Z-110411T0300Z/
ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-
PAYNE-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-LOVE-WICHITA-ARCHER-CLAY-
318 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING... EFFECTIVE FROM 10 AM TO 10
PM CDT SUNDAY.

* WINDS... SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

The outlook for Sunday looks like storms will fire in eastern OK. Any chance that moves further west? It looks like it was now I'm not sure.

It all depends on how fast the dryline mixes east. If it doesn't kick out fast enough, then storms could form closer to I-35.

Quick comment on today, short term rapid refresh model has pulled back most storm chances now and not nearly as definitive as earlier today. SPC has removed the slight risk but does retain at least low probabilities for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds if a storm should fire.

There some clouds trying to grow way out there.

There some clouds trying to grow way out there.

There are some, but the CU field is definitely no where close to the quality we had yesterday.

Been a couple hours since the last update. CU field continues to look rather pathetic, especially for being at peak heating. Water vapor out in that area and back towards TX doesn't give much hope, a ton of dry air is moving in right now. The best CU along the whole dry line is way up into NE where initiation of explosive development is now taking place. CU is falling apart over much of KS and the next decent area is in NW OK, but it is pretty sparse.

http://www.chatokc.com/images/4911-update.png