$#@^%(*&@%!&&%$#&!!!

^ditto!

Looks like yesterdays 18Z and 00Z GFS model run handled today's precip the best. Bulk of the precip is in the east, everything else was expected to be widely scattered so not everyone was going to get some. We haven't seen much materialize yet to the west so that part of the forecast hasn't worked out all that well. Rainfall rates not all that great, and any rainfall around the Metro area today has been mainly sprinkles or a light shower that hasn't done much.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/today.rainrfc.png

Before everyone gets all depressed. :-P Afternoon discussion from Norman...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH I HATE TO POSSIBLY JINX US... BUT IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE COULD EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN TX... WILL LIKELY CONT TO PUSH OFF EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. HOWEVER AS FRONT CONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING... COULD SEE A FEW MORE SFC-BASED STORMS AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN OK. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.

SFC FRONT WILL CONT TO PULL BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN IMPROVING MOISTURE PROFILE... RESULTING IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY... SO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN OK TONIGHT CLOSER TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER WAA.

STRONGER MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRI... WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN OK. MEANWHILE... A DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE WESTERN OK BORDER EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL MAKE A RUN EAST TOWARD I-44 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE DURING AFTN HOURS TOMORROW. BEST ESTIMATE OF THESE BOUNDARIES LOCATIONS WOULD RUN NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS FRI AFTN AND EVENING.

ALTHOUGH MODELS CONT TO SHOW MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR I-44 THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY... UNKNOWN DETAILS OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE ON WHERE LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUN. AS THIS OCCURS MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND COULD SEE ANOTHER... MORE BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN AND SUN NIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT FASTER THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED... WHICH WILL RESULT IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTN EAST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON TUE PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP.

$#@^%(*&@%!&&%$#&!!!

Breathe. We're here for you.

Venture, how's the weather looking to affect flights into OKC tomorrow? Obviously a tough call, but I will be flying in (or scheduled to) when these storms start to gain some steam (around 4-5pm). Will the line quickly move off to the east or does it look to be slow moving?

Working on the forecast for tomorrow now. Cluster of strong storms now moving into SW OK and will be moving generally North to Northeast. Hail main threats. HRRR has a good handle on things showing this convection. It doesn't appear it will get north of I-40 and die out in the next few hours.

http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/42211-outlook.png

Here is the basic thinking I'm going with right now. NAM has snapped back to moving the front through OKC proper by early evening and has it just SE of the Metro area. GFS holds it back to just west of I-44, which is what I went with here. However, the severe probability are a blend of the two. Conditions ahead of the front will be very unstable. CAPE values are expected to be well north of 3000 j/kg. CIN values look pretty nonexistent by mid afternoon which would permit convection to begin developing by 4PM.

At this point it is looking like large hail is going to be the main threat, and thats why I went moderate. However, there will be some tornadoes in the state. Storm motions look pretty similar on most model runs with an almost due east movement of 25-30 mph. So these things won't really be moving all that fast. The main area that would have my interest though would be SW of the Metro area near the triple point intersection of the front and dryline. Instabilities are just forecast to be crazy high down there on all models and we could see a very significant storm pop up there. The CAP may come into play a bit tomorrow, especially further SW. The big thing in all of this is watching the speed of the cold front. If it blasts through here early then we end up with another eastern OK event. If it follows GFS of approaching OKC and stalling (and moving back north overnight)...storm chances will be decently high around here - for a change.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0512.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK INTO SRN AND ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 220427Z - 220700Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS FAR NRN OK INTO SRN AND ERN KS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 07-08Z.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE REGION INDICATE VERY STEEP MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NOW
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. WITH A PERSISTENT
SWLY LOW LEVEL LET...MOISTURE AS SEEN ON 00Z OUN AND LMN SOUNDINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS OK AND INTO KS...AND EVENTUALLY
WRN MO.

AS THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES NWD...FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BREACH
THE CAPPING INVERSION JUST BELOW 700 MB...WITH AN ERUPTION OF STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM FAR N CNTRL OK INTO MUCH OF ERN
KS AND MOVING INTO WRN MO BY MORNING. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

You said that there are storms coming in now, are the risks laid out applied to the storms happening now or for later on in the day?

For once I am praying for a non-event. Any day except for tomorrow!

You said that there are storms coming in now, are the risks laid out applied to the storms happening now or for later on in the day?

The storms in SW OK have dissipated as expected. My risk is for storms after noon tomorrow. The boundary positions are for early evening based on GFS.

The storms in SW OK have dissipated as expected. My risk is for storms after noon tomorrow. The boundary positions are for early evening based on GFS.

Kool. Lets see if its gonna be cloudy all day or actually clear skies with total sunshine.

SPC outlook is going with the faster solution of the NAM moving the front through quickly. Agreement that main threat is going to be very large hail with a minimal tornado threat. SPC slight risk runs roughly right along I-44 and to the south and east. This puts the southern and eastern sections of the OKC metro area (Lincoln/Pott/Cleveland/McClain counties) in the slight risk area. They do have a hatched area for large area over the slight risk area with 30% probabilities.

Like I said above, my outlook leans much more on the GFS than NAM. Reading the latest HPC model discussion they are going with a GFS/ECMWF blend for the forecast as the bulk of the models are similar with the NAM being an outliers going further south with the frontal boundary. So we will just have to see how it works out.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH WWD TO MO THEN SWWD TO
PORTIONS CENTRAL TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...INITIALLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
EWD OVER ID IS FCST TO WEAKEN...MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TO WY AND BECOME
STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED. MEANWHILE...LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN WY...WILL BECOME
DOMINANT PERTURBATION...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED 500-MB LOW CENTERED
OVER NWRN SD BY 22/18Z. THIS FEATURE THEN SHOULD ACCELERATE ENEWD
TO LS BY END OF PERIOD...EITHER AS MRGL CLOSED CYCLONE OR STG
OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.

LEE-SIDE SFC CYCLONE -- INITIALLY ANALYZED OVER SERN CO -- IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ALONG STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN KS
TO WRN IL BY 23/00Z...EVOLVING INTO TRIPLE-POINT CYCLONE FOR
OCCLUDED SFC LOW OVER SD MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT CYCLONE...OCCLUDE...AND REACH SSM AREA
BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS
MO/IL/OH BY 23/12Z...STALLING OVER SE OK AND NW TX AS SECONDARY/WEAK
LOW DEVELOPS INVOF SPS. ADVECTION AND MIXING SHOULD FORCE DRYLINE
EWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL/NW TX AND SWRN OK DURING DAY...REACHING FROM
CENTRAL OK SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX TO EXTREME NRN COAHUILA BY
23/00Z. COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL/SWRN OK PRIOR
TO AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHERE FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE
POINT SHOULD SET UP BY END OF PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL EARLY
IN PERIOD...INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS IL/INDIANA AND SWRN OH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BECOME
WAVY/SEGMENTED DUE TO CONVECTIVE EFFECTS ALONG AND N OF IT.

...OH VALLEY AND ADJOINING STATES...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSTMS MAY AFFECT THIS AREA...BEGINNING WITH
CARRY-OVER CONVECTION FROM PRIOR PERIOD MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
IL/INDIANA/OH DURING DAY. THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND N OF NEWD-MOVING WARM FRONT WITH ELEVATED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS...AND MRGL HAIL THREAT. EITHER BACKBUILDING/TRAILING
PORTION OF THAT ACTIVITY...OR NEWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN KS/MO
BEHIND IT...SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WARM SECTOR OVER OH VALLEY REGION.
FOREGOING/PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE INTO AFTERNOON
FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE
ADVECTION. WEAK MLCINH SHOULD YIELD EFFECTIVE SFC-BASED PARCELS BY
MIDDAY...WHILE LAPSE RATES INCREASE STRONGLY WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM
OH TO ERN MO. CORRESPONDINGLY...MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000 J/KG
NEAR ERN INDIANA/OH WARM-FRONTAL SEGMENT TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG OVER
SRN MO.

SRN RIM OF SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF UNDISTURBED
WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...ALONG
WITH LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AND ISALLOBARIC FORCING...SHOULD RESULT
IN FAVORABLE LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR FOR SVR. TORNADO
PROBABILITY ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT APPEARS SUFFICIENT BY ITSELF TO
WARRANT SLGT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...BUT ANYTHING BEYOND THAT WILL
DEPEND STRONGLY ON MOST PROBABLE CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH APPEARS TOO
UNCERTAIN OR MIXED ATTM TO CONCENTRATE ANY CORRIDOR OF GREATER
THREAT. EXPECT FAVORABLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS...WITH 0-1 KM AGL SRH
COMMONLY 200-400 J/KG ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT. DAMAGING WIND IS
LIKELY...AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE SWWD IN STEP WITH
HIGHER LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY.

...OZARKS TO CENTRAL/SW TX...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE DURING
AFTERNOON...OFFERING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SVR GUSTS.
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES...GIVEN
MORE DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND HIGHER LCL THAN FARTHER NE.
EXPECT 8-9 DEG C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES...STG SFC HEATING AND DEW
POINTS COMMONLY 60S F...YIELDING PRE-STORM MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
WITH SWWD EXTENT...BUT ALSO WITH DISCRETE TSTMS FOR LONGER PERIODS
OF TIME IN SUPPORT OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND HODOGRAPH SIZE SHOULD WEAKEN FROM SRN OK SWD...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
STILL MAY FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGLY
DEVIANT MOTIONS INTO CENTRAL TX.

THREAT S OF RED RIVER WILL BE MORE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING
THAT FARTHER NE...AND AS SUCH...SHOULD WANE AFTER ABOUT 03Z.
CONVECTION OVER OH VALLEY AND OZARKS MAY PERSIST IN PROGRESSIVELY
MORE LINEAR FORM OVERNIGHT...WITH HAIL/TORNADO THREATS BECOMING MORE
MRGL AND WIND BECOMING DOMINANT SVR RISK.

Stay away cold front! >_<

Trend in the HRRR and RUC models seems to support cold front passage of OKC city limits between 11AM and 1PM. If this happens, it would setup something similar to last week of activity remaining in Eastern & South central Oklahoma.

Trend in the HRRR and RUC models seems to support cold front passage of OKC city limits between 11AM and 1PM. If this happens, it would setup something similar to last week of activity remaining in Eastern & South central Oklahoma.

Please do not jinx our weather. :-(

Decent look at the SPC's thinking for OUN's area...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg

Probably won't rain a drop. Maybe forecasts should go out only 1-2 hours in advance.

Probably won't rain a drop. Maybe forecasts should go out only 1-2 hours in advance.

It is frustrating but it is still nice to know what we can expect (at least sometimes). :/

Working on an update forecast map. Not really all that different from what I had last night, except for moving boundaries around a little. 12Z NAM indicating storms firing along cold front in NE OK and also near the triple point in South Central OK. I have an outline area of "enhanced risk" for large hail in this areas. Tornado threat looks lower than it did yesterday, so pulling the moderate off my outlook. Still expect a tornado or two in the state, but that is about it...which could of course change. NAM has also moved to back build storms north of the frontal boundary (and even start moving the front north a bit over night). These will be mostly elevated hail storms as instability in the mid levels begins to increase towards early evening. HRRR model seems to agree with this thinking and will post outlook graphic once the new run completes.

...a sad Texan once prayed, "Lord, I wish you would make it rain - not so much for me, I've seen it - but for my 7-year-old."

Okay new HRRR is done and here is the updated thinking.

http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/42211-outlook2.png

Would cloud seeding help us?

Why is it that the cold front been moving on thru so fast the past few months?!

LOL so the minute I second guess myself and pull the moderate risk off, SPC goes ahead and puts one up.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0515.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND SOUTHERN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE MID MS
AND MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...

A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FROM OK INTO SOUTHERN MO.

...MO/IL INTO OH VALLEY...
A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING NEAR THE
STL AREA. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND IN REGION OF MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY
ORGANIZED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RETREATING SURFACE WARM
FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTION.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

...MO/AR/OK/TX...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
OK...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAPPING
INVERSION AND HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND POTENTIALLY MORE DISCRETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. TORNADOES APPEAR OF
GREATEST CONCERN OVER SOUTHERN MO...FAR NORTHERN AR...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN IL WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE RETREATING
WARM FRONT WILL BE PRESENT. STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

Going to bring the chat room up at chatokc.com for the rest of the afternoon/evening. Feel free to email me at info@chatokc.com to request an invite to the room that will allow you to be unmoderated.

Here is a shot of the cold front from 30,000 feet near the West-Texas/Oklahoma border at about 935am central time. This was shot looking back behind the wing from my cellphone, so it's blurry and grainy. It was pretty bumpy running through it. I will try and get a better shot here in a few hours on my return leg.

http://img809.imageshack.us/i/img2011042200070.jpg/

Bright spot is a reflection of a personal reading light off of the window, not a UFO or the sun.

Cold front appears to be running roughly from Stillwater to Edmond to just west of Chickasha right now. HRRR run is hinting that initial activity could develop in the next 2-3 hours over South Central Oklahoma.

Must not have been the cold front, sure looked like one from how I saw it. a huge line that stretched as far as I could see. Might have been just something else.

Hopefully these storms will wait for me to get back :) Been stressing it all week, I would love to say I was stressing for no reason.

Here is a shot of the cold front from 30,000 feet near the West-Texas/Oklahoma border at about 935am central time. This was shot looking back behind the wing from my cellphone, so it's blurry and grainy. It was pretty bumpy running through it. I will try and get a better shot here in a few hours on my return leg.

http://img809.imageshack.us/i/img2011042200070.jpg/

Bright spot is a reflection of a personal reading light off of the window, not a UFO or the sun.

Very nice. M80 I'm guessing by the wing? lol

Update to last week's tornadoes...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Storm_Update.jpg

Looks like a repeat of 4/14 with storms this time forming slightly further to the west but basically along the 35 corridor.

Here is a shot of the cold front from 30,000 feet near the West-Texas/Oklahoma border at about 935am central time. This was shot looking back behind the wing from my cellphone, so it's blurry and grainy. It was pretty bumpy running through it. I will try and get a better shot here in a few hours on my return leg.

http://img809.imageshack.us/i/img2011042200070.jpg/

Bright spot is a reflection of a personal reading light off of the window, not a UFO or the sun.


My first thought was that its UFO. It was a good thing you mentioned that it was not.

You would be correct....MD80.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011042215&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

That is the latest HRRR run. Initial storms developing in South Central OK in the next 2-3 hours. Additional storms then fire up along the front from Central OK up through NE OK. If this run is taken literally, it does keep everything north and west of I-44 dry through midnight.

CU field is developing fairly nicely now from Stephens County back to the northeast.

Here is a small glimmer of hope for rain in the metro area.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t5/2011042216/cref_t5sfc_f07.png

I do not want to see that blob near DFW!!!! Hopefully I'll leave DFW before that part hits.

Possible new Tornado Watch coming out in the next hour or two.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0518.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...FAR WRN AR...N-CNTRL/NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221823Z - 222000Z

PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK...FAR WRN AR...AND N-CNTRL/NERN TX ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING SVR
WEATHER THREAT. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING E-NEWD ACROSS SERN KS...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO
SWRN OK...AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING S-SW FROM CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL
TX. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...AIDING IN BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID 60S F
DEWPOINTS RESIDE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 2500 J PER KG/ ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 18Z SHOWS ENHANCED CUMULUS GROWTH OVER
S-CNTRL OK...WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LOCATION OF RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN 3KM HRRR OCCURRING BY 19-20Z. GIVEN
THESE TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL TAKE PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK AND PERHAPS N-CNTRL TX
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT/...THE STRONG
INSTABILITY/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
POSING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES /0-1
KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2 S-2/ SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

..GARNER.. 04/22/2011

Also, I'm unable to post a picture of the cold front. I had to trade seats (window to an aisle). So, I can't see anything right now. We had a bumpy ride so far though.

Did the cold front actually moved backward already? That picture just above have the front northwest of the metro now.

Earlier, I did feel the northerly wind, but now I feel the southerly wind. Can you confirm? Its all sunshine and moisty here.

SkyWestOKC, have no fear! I don't think a tornado will be on your plane's tail.

Visible satellite shows where the front is very well.

http://www.chatokc.com/images/042211-sat-210p.png

When do you see the tornado watch being issued?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0180_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 178...WW 179...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM ALONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. OTHER
MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE RED RIVER. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /MLCAPE OVER 3500 J/KG/
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

Spc aww 222043
ww 180 tornado ar ok 222050z - 230300z
axis..75 statute miles east and west of line..
25s adm/ardmore ok/ - 40nnw fyv/fayetteville ar/ ..aviation coords.. 65nm e/w /18sse adm - 23nw rzc/ hail surface and aloft..4 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030.


TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

WT 0180
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

T-storms beginning to form over Tulsa and points to the northeast.

T-storms beginning to form over Tulsa and points to the northeast.

Nothing to severe in 20 minutes. Won't take long for the front to fire up down into the Metro area here soon.

Live chat is rolling at chatokc.com for those interested.

Northeastern Part of the state is getting hit hard by the storms right now

Well, I am finally in the air towards OKC. Been stressful, but it looks like I had nothing to worry about. Storms look huge from up here.

http://img857.imageshack.us/i/img2011042200073.jpg/
http://img855.imageshack.us/i/img2011042200074.jpg/

http://img90.imageshack.us/i/img2011042200075.jpg/

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service tulsa ok
542 pm cdt fri apr 22 2011

the national weather service in tulsa has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northern okfuskee county in east central oklahoma
southern creek county in northeast oklahoma
western okmulgee county in northeast oklahoma

* until 630 pm cdt

* at 539 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 6 miles north of paden...moving east at 25 mph.

* some locations in or near the path of this storm include...welty...
Okfuskee...slick and beggs.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are near the path of this storm...take cover now! If no
underground shelter is available move to an interior room on the
lowest floor. Mobile homes and vehicles should be abandoned for more
substantial shelter. Avoid windows!

Sorry for the delay in info, trying to keep the chat up to date too right now. :)

Well, the really good rain missed again. Maybe we will have more luck with the rest of the weekend. After that it looks dry at least until the second week of May.

Latest HRRR model run...there is hope still:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011042221&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

Mesoscale discussion 0527
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0939 pm cdt fri apr 22 2011

areas affected...ok/wrn ar

concerning...tornado watch 180...

Valid 230239z - 230345z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 180 continues.

Tornado watch 180 will be extended until 05z for srn and ern ok and
nwrn ar.

Several supercells persist across the watch area...with a few strong
couplets from time to time. Although some boundary layer cooling is
occurring and storms may be interfering with each other...a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out over the next few hours given shear in
place as latest objective analysis indicates 300-400 m2/s2 effective
srh. In addition...large hail is likely along with heavy rain.

..jewell.. 04/23/2011


attn...wfo...lzk...sgf...shv...tsa...oun...

New storms firing in SW OK are moving NE towards the Metro area...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1018 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1018 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0528.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK ...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230410Z - 230615Z

WE ARE MONITORING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEHIND EARLIER
CONVECTION...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW COULD BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT
FOR MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN OK. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR NERN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR.

SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK INTO SRN MO DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
SOME CELLS ARE LEFT SPLITS...AND MAY EFFECT ADJACENT NRN COUNTIES TO
THE ONGOING BAND OF STORMS OVER SRN OK. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR N ANY
SPLITS WILL GO. HOWEVER...FARTHER N INTO THE COOLER AIR...MODELS
DEVELOP CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP FROM
NRN OK INTO SRN MO. WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES COULD BE NEEDED IF THE
THREAT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH.

..JEWELL.. 04/23/2011

Ww 184 severe tstm ok 230435z - 231100z
axis..35 statute miles north and south of line..
5ne rkr/poteau ok/ - 40ssw chk/chickasha ok/
..aviation coords.. 30nm n/s /23sw fsm - 39nne sps/
hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0184_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1135 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
POTEAU OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHICKASHA
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180. WATCH NUMBER 180 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1135 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 181...WW 182...WW 183...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SRN
OK IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST CORES INCLUDING ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE 40-50KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.


WS 0184
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Just going to post the SPC outlooks for now, don't have much time to dive into the models with it being a holiday weekend.

Slight Risk today is south/east of a line from Altus > Hobart > El Reno > Edmond > Cushing > Tulsa > Jay. This includes all but the far northern and western OKC metro areas. With in that risk area are two different time tables and risk potentials.

The afternoon risk area is across the southern 2 tiers of counties. This area could see conditions similar to yesterday for very large hail and damaging winds and a tornado or two. North of that, including the metro area, will be the risk for storms to develop overnight and produce large hail. These will be elevated storms so the risk of tornadoes will be extremely slim.

SPC Day 1 Outlook - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...TX/OK/AR...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTHWEST AR.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HEATING
AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST
TX AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AR. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TX/AR THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE/CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
KNOTS...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT
A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST OK/NORTH
CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
ACROSS OK WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED HAILSTORMS WILL EXIST TONIGHT
ACROSS THIS REGION.

For Easter Sunday...

New Day 2 isn't out yet, will post once they publish it.

SPC Day 2 Outlook - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Monday...

Typical pattern to what we are use to. The slight risk area is mainly east of I-35. The risk area is south and east of a line from Pawhuska > Stillwater > Chickasha > Waurika. This would include the eastern and southern counties of the Metro area.

SPC Day 3 Outlook - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS ONE EMBEDDED SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH EJECTS
NEWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND A SECOND DIGS ESEWD OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL WAVE
SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...ERN OK/NERN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/LOWER AND MID
OH VALLEY REGION...
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES.

WITH MODERATELY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FORECAST ATOP THE
SURFACE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO AGAIN
BECOME MOST INTENSE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- SIMILAR TO
PRIOR DAYS. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

ATTM...THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE END OF
DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3 RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECISE
LOCATION AND DEGREE OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE THREATS.
HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF PROBABILITIES REFLECTIVE OF A
FAIRLY ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT.

Tuesday...

Severe risk is limited to far SE OK, won't really go into much detail. For more information check out:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Easter Sunday Outlook...

Slight risk of severe weather for all of Oklahoma except for extreme NW OK and a few counties along the TX Panhandle border.

Hatched area, or enhanced risk area, is in place from Frederick to Anadarko to Oklahoma City to Bartlesville and to the east.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WSWWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE SWRN
STATES TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN NEW ENGLAND SWWD
THROUGH SRN PA...OH VALLEY...NRN AR AND INTO SERN OK TO CENTRAL TX
AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE THE PA PORTION SETTLES SLOWLY
SSEWD INTO WV...NRN VA TO DELMARVA WHERE IT SHOULD STALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
RETREAT NWD ACROSS NRN TX AND ERN OK AND MORE PROMINENTLY INTO
CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL IND AS A BROAD LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS TO AR/SRN MO...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND AR INTO SRN MO NEAR
AND N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER OK
PRODUCING A SEVERE HAIL THREAT AT 12Z SUNDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
FARTHER S...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUBJECT TO AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
SLOWLY EWD...HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOCUSED NEAR
AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL TX AND INTO OK/AR. IN
ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO WSWLY
AT 50 KT AT MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS ACQUIRE ROTATION...A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL APPEARS LIKELY ALONG WITH THREATS FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD SRN
MO SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS GREATER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD
EWD WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE ONSET OF DIABATIC
COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL TEND TO SUPPORT
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE RETREATING
WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...SURFACE AND/OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY
REMAIN POSSIBLE INVOF OF THE FRONT AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG
IT FROM SRN OK INTO SWRN-CENTRAL MO SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR INTO SRN MO
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOWER LCLS AND
SUPPORT INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. DESPITE A
VEERED/BACKED WINDS AT MIDLEVELS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A LINEAR MODE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING FROM OK INTO SRN MO...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS WILL ALSO FAVOR AN EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT
AFTER DARK ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/WRN AR.