This thread will be used to discussion upcoming/ongoing severe weather events through the month of March. These events can include both spring-like and winter-like events as we are in the transition into Spring. This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Norman & Tulsa County Warning Area Maps
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png
Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | Blizzard Warning | Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Winter Storm Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Freezing Rain Advisory | Heavy Snow Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement | Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php

NEXRAD Radar Mosaic
http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/Oklahoma.gif

Visible Satellite Image (will appear blank overnight)
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma.gif

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

Useful Links
COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
NWS Norman Enhanced Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/

Thank you for starting another lovely topic discussion on here.

so any news on these storms that are suppose to be coming? is it a hail chance etc.. love ventures updates, i check here before the news channels now

Eh I guess we are close enough, so I'll move the discussion over here. :)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0121.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CST WED FEB 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SWRN MO...SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240110Z - 240345Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE E-NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN OK AND SERN KS INTO
SWRN MO THROUGH MID-EVENING. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
KS AND NERN OK THROUGH MID EVENING. A ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE VALUES AOA 500 J/KG PER 00Z RUC ANALYSIS/ WILL CONTINUE TO
COMBINE WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SWRN MO AFTER 02Z. EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 50-55 KT WILL PROMOTE MARGINAL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY OR STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
FORCING WILL PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE THREAT...AND A WW
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

..COHEN.. 02/24/2011

So it looks like nothing really to worry about...I mean how much damage can hail do right?

So it looks like nothing really to worry about...I mean how much damage can hail do right?

Hail can crack open your skull.

Just saw a short story on KOCO about the cities and tornado sirens. Got me thinking how the cities spend thousands to warn their hearing taxpayers all the while they let their deaf taxpayers die. Something to think about.

(Btw, I don't think Mick will ever care. lol)

Just saw a short story on KOCO about the cities and tornado sirens. Got me thinking how the cities spend thousands to warn their hearing taxpayers all the while they let their deaf taxpayers die. Something to think about.

(Btw, I don't think Mick will ever care. lol)

What kind of system would you propose? They also interrupt tv shows with the information. I wonder what the statistics are on deaf people who die in tornadoes? What about stupid people that ignore the sirens/tv interruptions?

Freaky storm... I just heard the loudest thunder I think I have ever heard in my 20 years of living in this state. The power went out and now 5 minutes later, complete silence....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0012_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 12
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 410 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CST.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
BIG SPRING TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER W CNTRL AND NW TX
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AS SMALL SCALE IMPULSE AHEAD OF LARGER
SCALE UPR TROUGH NOW OVER NM CONTINUES NE AND FURTHER INTERACTS WITH
WRN EDGE OF PW AXIS. CLOUD-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WITH LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0123.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SW AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12...

VALID 241347Z - 241545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12
CONTINUES.

SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK.

DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS OVERSPREAD NWRN TX THROUGH OK. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
EWD ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK AS WELL AS
ALONG AND NORTH OF SWD ADVANCING POLAR FRONT ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH
NERN OK. THE 12Z NORMAN RAOB SHOWS 1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND A LAYER OF 7
C/KM LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB...BUT WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES
ABOVE 500 MB. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINING FROM NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK.
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS
THE MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF WARM SECTOR IS OVERTURNED.

..DIAL.. 02/24/2011

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

VALID 271200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON SUN/D4 WITH A PROBABLE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

THE ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S...AND RESPECTABLY CLOSE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND CNTRL AZ BY 12Z SUN. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY 00Z...AND TO THE MS RIVER BY 12Z MON...MREF MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A SLOW AND FAST CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS...THE SLOWEST OF WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE PREFERRED MODEL.

USING THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS KS OR POSSIBLY NWRN OK AT 00Z. BY THEN...A BROAD SLY FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HAVE RESULTED IN MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NWD INTO OK AND AR...WITH NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY INTO SERN KS AND SRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE CAPPING DURING THE DAY BUT STORM SHOULD ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FROM KS INTO MO AND SRN IL. ALTHOUGH PRECISE STORM MODE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS TIME...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MON/D5 BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE...TN AND OH VALLEYS...BUT PREDICTABILITY BECOMES TOO LOW FOR ANY AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/24/2011

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN PLAINS...ARKLATEX
TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST TO REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS MOST OF CONUS...PRIMARY PERTURBATION BEING STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOW LOCATED OVER NRN CA AS OF 26/05Z. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO DIG SSEWD THEN TURN EWD ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AREA NEAR START OF PERIOD. GIVEN SLIGHTLY LAGGED UPSTREAM PATTERN OF HEIGHT FALLS AND RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS IN PROGS...WILL MAINTAIN EARLY-PERIOD FCST CLOSER TO CONSISTENTLY SLOWER ECMWF POSITION...AS OPPOSED TO FASTER OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL...WITH 500-MB CYCLONE POSITIONED OVER LAS-EED AREA AT START OF PERIOD. THIS ALSO RESEMBLES ETA MEMBERS OF SREF. TROUGH IS FCST TO ASSUME PRONOUNCED POSITIVE TILT EARLY IN PERIOD AND DEVOLVE TO OPEN WAVE...MOVING EWD TO AXIS FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO S-CENTRAL/SWRN NM BY 28/00Z. TROUGH THEN SHOULD MOVE EWD BY 28/12Z TO NEAR KS/MO BORDER...SERN OK...AND N-CENTRAL TX...BY WHICH TIME ECMWF ACCELERATES SYSTEM INTO SREF MEAN POSITION.

AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING OVER CO LATE DAY-1 SHOULD CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY INTO STG SFC CYCLONE THERE BY ABOUT 27/18Z AS UPPER WAVE APCHS...WITH WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS KS/MO. SFC LOW THEN SHOULD PIVOT SEWD/EWD OVER SRN KS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE THEN SHOULD BECOME ELONGATED SW-NE ALONG SFC FRONTAL ZONE BY END OF PERIOD...WITH NEWER CENTER POSSIBLE OVER LOWER MI AND ORIGINAL LOW OVER MO OR IL. COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW WILL MOVE EWD FROM CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES ACROSS OK AND MOST OF TX BY 28/12Z. DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL/ERN OK DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING...INTERSECTING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR S-CENTRAL/SERN KS SFC LOW.

...SRN PLAINS...ARKLATEX TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
MOST CONCENTRATED AND SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT IS FCST DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN AND NEAR OZARKS...WITH MORE CONDITIONAL SVR RISK BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FAR W AS CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK. BULK OF SVR EVENTS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...ALTHOUGH A FEW STG TORNADOES AND LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.

INITIAL/DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH AROUND 28/00Z...REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN/CONDITIONAL...AS AREAS ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE OVER SRN KS...NE TX AND OK SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR. ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD INCLUDE SUPERCELLS.

EXPECT MAJOR INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING 28/00Z-28/06Z AS LIFT STRENGTHENS ON ALL SCALES...AND STRONGER FORCING IMPINGES UPON PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STRENGTHENING FLOW AND ASCENT ALOFT SPREADS OVER PROGRESSIVELY MOISTENING WARM SECTOR E OF DRYLINE. LEFT-EXIT REGION OF INTENSIFYING...SOMEWHAT CYCLONICALLY CURVED...125-150 KT 250-MB JET WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OK...KS...OZARKS AND INTO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...EXPECT BROAD AREA OF 60-80 KT 500-MB WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SVR RISK AREAS
DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...E.G. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT IN MANY FCST SOUNDINGS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO WILL ENLARGE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 00Z FROM ERN OK THROUGH PORTIONS AR/MO/SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 250-400 J/KG UNDER 45-60 KT LLJ. MEANWHILE...60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME COMMON OVER MOIST SECTOR AND S OF ABOUT I-70 OVERNIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO SFC-BASED PARCELS WITH MLCAPE IN 500-1500 J/KG RANGE.

THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL SVR OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE...A FEW FACTORS PRECLUDE MORE SPECIFIC CORRIDOR OF GREATER PROBABILITIES ATTM. IN ADDITION TO TIMING/LOCATION OF INITIATION...EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE MODE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCLEAR THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN SUCH FAST AMBIENT FLOW MAY TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE DAMAGING QLCS DEVELOPMENT WITH BOWS/LEWPS APPEARS LIKELY AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT. SWD BACKBUILDING OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY...AFFECTING LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...THOUGH CAPPING WILL MAKE THIS RISK MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD GULF.

..EDWARDS.. 02/26/2011

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/MUCH OF AR/SOUTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IL/FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN/SHIFT EASTWARD OVER AZ/NM DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL/SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS/STRONG TORNADOES...SEEMS PROBABLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS/MID-SOUTH/LOWER OH VALLEY...
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES /INCLUDING SOME STRONG/...IN ADDITION TO AN INITIAL BOUT OF LARGE HAIL...WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY.

INITIAL/DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS A STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK/NORTH TX/FAR SOUTHERN KS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED INITIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNSET...WITH INITIALLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/FAR NORTH TX AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN KS.

OTHERWISE...A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN A RELATIVELY BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE ATTENDANT TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 750-1250 J/KG MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH AS AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING 60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE INCLUDING QUASI-LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS/LINE-LEADING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS/STRONG TORNADOES...AS THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY TOWARD THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS AND TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS.

..GUYER.. 02/26/2011

Storm chances today will be contingent on the cap breaking ahead of the dryline. One the dryline is passed a certain location, expect very wind and dry conditions. Fire weather is a major concern today.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
AR NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS...NRN AND ERN
OK...AND NE TX NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...MID SOUTH/LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE AXIS OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NEWD FROM SE TX TO NW
MS AND ERN AR...ALONG THE LLJ AXIS. CONTINUED NWD/NEWD EXPANSION OF
THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 300 M2/S2.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR STORM INITIATION...THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS ON SURFACE
HEATING...AND EWD EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP.
ASSUMING A FEW STORMS CAN FORM THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE AR INTO WRN
TN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ALONG THE LLJ CORRIDOR...ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT MOVING EWD FROM OK ACROSS AR. THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
MAY CONTAIN SUPERCELLS WITH A CONTINUED TORNADO RISK OVERNIGHT INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY 09-12Z. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND...THOUGH
QLCS TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...KS/OK BORDER THIS EVENING INTO NRN MO/IL OVERNIGHT...
THE INITIAL LEE CYCLONE IN SE CO WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SLY FLOW INDUCED BY THE LEE CYCLONE HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO OK...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HEATING WILL BE INHIBITED BY LOW STRATUS AND A SEPARATE BELT
OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS NOW OVERSPREADING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW TX AND
WRN OK. HOWEVER...CLEARING FROM THE W IS EXPECTED OVER THE DRYLINE
AND TRIPLE POINT BY ABOUT 21Z...AND THIS SURFACE HEATING WILL
CORRESPOND WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND LOCAL WEAKENING OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUS...AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER...W OF I-35.

A COMBINATION OF 7-8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 58-62 F...AND AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S...WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
50-70 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS CROSS INTO THE
COOL AIR N OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN KS INTO MO AND IL OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0149.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272012Z - 272145Z

LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME IS
DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION INTO WRN
OK. THIS IS AFFIRMED IN THE LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA WHERE DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED AT LEAST THROUGH 3KM.
ADDITIONALLY...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD IS
DEVELOPING FROM THE OK PANHANDLE...SEWD ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER TO
NEAR I-40. AS THIS CU FIELD APPROACHES A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR OVER NWRN OK. SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
TORNADO WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS EVOLVING THREAT.

..DARROW.. 02/27/2011


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

Nothing for the metro. I'm not gonna look forward to it, since it is so windy, the storms will only be pushed together into a line racing E/NE.

When is the next time for tornado chances?

Ww 21 tornado ks ok 272050z - 280300z
axis..40 statute miles north and south of line..
35ssw avk/alva ok/ - 25ese cnu/chanute ks/ ..aviation coords.. 35nm n/s /47e gag - 24nne osw/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040.

Lat...lon 36889891 38119505 36959505 35729891

Update...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0021_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 21
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20...

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS NEAR AND E OF
THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS N CENTRAL OK. A SEPARATE BAND OF HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS IN NW OK DEMARCATES THE STRONG DRY SURGE AND SUGGESTS AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOW THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 70S...THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS PROBABLE BY 22-23Z. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH
AOA 200 M2/S2 AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE NEAR/ALONG THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

WT 0021
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Nothing for the metro. I'm not gonna look forward to it, since it is so windy, the storms will only be pushed together into a line racing E/NE.

When is the next time for tornado chances?

There is still a chance for storms today until the dryline passes. The cap though is pretty stout today. And yes...storm movement will be very vest, but that doesn't mean things will go linear right away. Just typical early spring storms that will move 40-60 mph. Chaseable stuff really doesn't happen until late April anyway.

Cells rapidly going up in Western OK at this point. Main cells are near Buffalo and Harmon with additional development near Woodward, Roll and Fort Supply.

CU field is developing south to near Sayre along I-40 at this time so development seems probably anywhere north of I-40 in Western OK.

Is that a potential development far southwest I see on the radar? Or just a bunch of birds or giant fans?

Is that a potential development far southwest I see on the radar? Or just a bunch of birds or giant fans?

Dryline is through most of SW Oklahoma at this point. Anything on radar in that portion of the start will either be dust or smoke from wild fires.

There is developing CU ahead of the dyline from Central OK south which will need to be watched. If anything does fire up, it will likely end up going severe pretty fast with the very high instability in the area right now.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
545 pm cst sun feb 27 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northeastern kay county in northern oklahoma...

* until 615 pm cst

* at 545 pm cst...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 5 miles northwest of
newkirk...moving east at 55 mph.

* locations in the warning include chilocco...newkirk and peckham.

The first tornado of the year and its in another county. *sighs*

The first tornado of the year and its in another county. *sighs*

Well, Mother Nature has 77 Oklahoma counties to choose from, and since all counties in our state are prone to tornadic weather, the chances weren't really in our favor.

I, on the other hand, am fine with it. I'd be happy to get some more rain, though. I think we all would.

Nothing has been confirmed with it at all, so no...doesn't count. Rarely will Oklahoma County or any other country in the Metro get credit for the first of the season.

http://www.koco.com/video/27016669/detail.html

Streaming video of the destructive tornado.

Someone keep screwing with the stream, so its a bit annoying.

Bulletin - eas activation requested
fire warning
city of altus
relayed by national weather service norman ok
555 pm cst sun feb 27 2011

the following message is being transmitted at the request of the
city of altus.

A fire warning is in effect for northern jackson county near
blair... Between county roads 204 and 207... North of county road
156. A wildfire is out of control in this area... And residents
should evacuate in a generally southerly direction.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0157.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280207Z - 280300Z

00Z NAM/LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO OFFER THE BEST GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
AND SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR THE ADVANCING
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL INDEED DEEPEN THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO LARGER-SCALE ASCENT FINALLY SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOIST
WARM SECTOR EFFECTIVELY WEAKENING INHIBITION.

EXPECT THAT ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED WILL BE EMBEDDED IN
200-400 M2/S2...HIGHEST ACROSS NE OK AND ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CELLS WILL BECOME LINEAR QUICKLY WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOWS/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...CORRIDORS OF HIGH WIND MAY EVOLVE ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND
AR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE SVR THREAT BACKBUILDING SWWD INTO
FAR NE TX AS WELL.

..RACY.. 02/28/2011


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

Extended March Outlook

3/1 - Dry. Temps 50s.
3/2 - Dry. Temps 50s to low 60s.
3/3 - Dry. Temps 50s NE to 70 SW.
3/4 - Showers. Temps 50s.
3/5 - Showers eastern 1/2 of OK. Temps 40s.
3/6 - Dry. Temps 40s east to 60 SW.
3/7 - Mostly Dry. Temps 50s East to 70s SW.
3/8 - Showers/Storms Eastern 1/2 of OK. Temps 60s east to mid 70s SW.
3/9 - AM Rain/Snow Mix. Temps 40s NE to 50 SW. Morning temps, which is when precip will occur, will be below freezing except for Southern and SE OK.
3/10 - Dry. Temps 40s NE and 50s SW.
3/11 - Dry. Temps Upper 30s NE to low 50s SW.
3/12 - Dry. Temps 40s NE to low 60s West.
3/13 - Showers East. Temps 40s North to mid 60s South.
3/14 - Dry. Temps 40s.
3/15 - Storms SW, Showers East. Temps 40s NE to mid 70s SW.

So are we due for a wet spring or more of this drought?

So are we due for a wet spring or more of this drought?

This should sum it up. Notice the Severe Drought area has grown significantly.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Drought_Update.jpg

This will be updated early this afternoon.

Severe Probabilities for Tuesday:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_any.gif

This should sum it up. Notice the Severe Drought area has grown significantly.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Drought_Update.jpg

Jeez. I need to do some watering.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0043_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 43
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 85 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF N/S DRY LINE HAS DESTABILIZED
WITH MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE
FOR SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE AND
WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVE EWD. WHILE LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL...A TORNADO
THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG MID/UPPER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

Any Ideas of when things will start to pick up some weatherwise for us?

Something looks to be brewing in about 9-10 days. Still way too far off to pinpoint specifics but we could have something

Cool can't wait

Major concern today is of course the wildfires.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Fire_Update.jpg

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.RELH.grad.png

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustarrows.gif

Bulletin - eas activation requested
fire warning
oklahoma county emergency management
relayed by national weather service norman ok
134 pm cst fri mar 11 2011

the following message is being transmitted at the request of
oklahoma county emergency management.

A large wildfire is out of control and moving quickly north and
northeast on the west sides of harrah.

Persons located between luther road and dobbs road between northeast
10th to northeast 23rd... Are urged to evacuate. Please evacuate
north to northeast 23rd and then go either east or west out of the
area.

Someone asked...


Any Ideas of when things will start to pick up some weatherwise for us?

Someone answered...


Something looks to be brewing in about 9-10 days. Still way too far off to pinpoint specifics but we could have something

Supermoon? We shall see...

Bulletin - eas activation requested
fire warning
oklahoma county emergency management
relayed by national weather service norman ok
243 pm cst fri mar 11 2011

the following message is being transmitted at the request of
oklahoma county emergency management.

Two large wildfires are out of control and moving quickly north in
oklahoma county. One is in the harrah area...and the other in the
midwest city area.

Persons located between northeast 10th and northeast 36th and
between dobbs road and luther road are urged to evacuate.

Also...persons located between hiawassee road and henny road and
between southeast 15th and reno are urged to evacuate.


Bulletin - eas activation requested
fire warning
pottawatomie county emergency management
relayed by national weather service norman ok
246 pm cst fri mar 11 2011

the following message is being transmitted at the request of
pottawatomie county emergency management.

A large wildfire is out of control and moving quickly north and
northeast across northwest pottawatomie county.

Persons located between hardesty road and lake road and between
patterson road and stephens road... Need to evacuate. Please
evacuate to the bethel acres fire station number 2 located at the
corner of hardesty road and patterson road.

I just got back from dropping off a co-worker in MWC. It seems like once we hit the Sooner Road exit on I-40, I was overwhelmed by the smell of smoke and the sky has got a hazy browness to it.

Hope you folks out east stay safe.

Wow... This has not been a good day.

A very busy news day. The fires was the worst that I've seen in my lifetime. I went to Harrah/Luther to check on my family, brought mom with me, then we stopped by her sister's house in Choctaw and the fires was very close, as soon we were leaving the neighborhood, a firetruck raced thru the entrance.

Extended Outlook based on the 12Z GFS run today...

Sun 3/13 - Scattered Showers & Storms. Temps 40s North - 60s South.
Mon 3/14 - Showers/Storms East early, Dry West. Temps 50s.
Tue 3/15 - Dry. Temps 50s NE to 60s SW.
Wed 3/16 - Isolated Showers/Storms. Temps 60s.
Thu 3/17 - Slight Chance of Evening Storms. Possibly Strong. Temps 60s NE to near 80 SW.
Fri 3/18 - Showers/Storms far East & Southeast. Temps 50s north to 70 south.
Sat 3/19 - Isolated Storms Central and South. Temps 50s north to low 70s south.
Sun 3/20 - Isolated Storm or two. Temps 70s.
Mon 3/21 - Shower or storm north. Temps 60s north to mid 70s south.
Tue 3/22 - Mostly dry, chance of storm NW. Fire risk SW. Temps upper 60s and low 70s.
Wed 3/23 - Showers and storms most places, fairly dry SW with Fire risk. Temps around 50 north to near 70 south.
Thu 3/24 - Dry. Temps 50s NE to near 70 SW.
Fri 3/25 - Dry with maybe an isolated storm late. Temps 70s to near 80.
Sat 3/26 - Chance of storms increasing towards dark. Temps 60s and 70s.
Sun 3/27 - Storms, possibly heavy rain, early. Temps 50s north to 70s south.
Mon 3/28 - Dry and temps 50s to 70s.

Weather looks to be getting much busier starting tomorrow. Fire danger will be extreme far west, still high to very high for the rest of the state. Storm chances could go up next week.

Thursday 3/17/11
Map: http://goo.gl/maps/7oe7 | NWS Norman page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=3
Extreme fire risk will exist across far western Oklahoma and the panhandle. Humidity (RH) levels will be the lowest here at 20% or less. The next tier of counties in will see RH levels in the 30s and then higher as you go east. Central OK may be able to stay in the 40s to 50s as it looks now, but we'll have to see how fast we dry out. Fire Weather Watch is up for the western two rows of counties (and the Panhandle) for tomorrow and we'll probably see at least the western-most counties upgraded to Red Flag Warnings. Conditions can change and if moisture levels drop even more, the risk will spread further east. Even with all that, we will see be at a high risk for fire weather, so caution will still be needed.

Saturday 3/19/11
Map: http://goo.gl/maps/XJHa
Storm chances will be going up, but severe risk will be pretty low still. Two areas where we may see some marginal to severe weather will be in the panhandle along the dryline or SW OK behind the warm front. There will be some higher instability here, but still nothing to get excited about. Showers/storms looks probably along the warm front from SW into NC Oklahoma, but severe risk will be pretty low in most areas.

Sunday 3/20/11
Map: http://goo.gl/maps/1Ud0
Doesn't look too bad right now. Should be mostly dry across the state, but a storm or two could fire up along the dryline in the panhandles and move into NW OK. Marginal risk for those areas.

Monday 3/21/11
Map: http://goo.gl/maps/PPIl
Dryline gets closer to the state, a storm or two could go up along it and impact western OK. Not seeing a lot of activity right now, but the risk is there for one or two storms that could go severe.

Tuesday 3/22/11 - Dryline pushes through Central OK. Some storms could be ahead of it. Extreme fire danger could return to far western OK.

Weds 3/23/11 - Mostly Dry. Very High Fire Danger Western 1/2 of OK.

Future dates to watch: 3/26 and 3/28

Very High fire danger coming up today.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_This_Afternoon.jpg

One negative side to reporting this kind of weather is the bad guys keeping track and they will be out in full force implementing their plans to start fires in many different areas. :-(

This may be a busy day and be prepared to have your Soap Opera episode blocked.

So it looks like nothing really to worry about...I mean how much damage can hail do right?

i guess you missed out on the hailstorm last year? go to youtube and search for "oklahoma hail in pool" and see what you think after that.

i guess you missed out on the hailstorm last year? go to youtube and search for "oklahoma hail in pool" and see what you think after that.

Not to mention that the 4-6 mile stretch of hail that moved through the city has been put on par with Hurricane Katrina for all the insurance money that's had to be paid out.

Here is the watch information that will be out for the next few hours.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0051_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 51
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA KANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CO/NM APPROACHES. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/KS/MO...

BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WHILE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO/NM MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

...OK/KS/MO...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND EASTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY
INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING AS ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MORNING RAOBS SHOWS STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE...AND SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MO
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST
IS IN QUESTION AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN OK AND IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SO FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN IN A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

...OK/TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST OK AND WEST TX. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INITIATION
APPEARS TO BE IN OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS DECREASING
FARTHER SOUTH. IF A STORM CAN FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WOULD BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. EVEN A TORNADO COULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST OK WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR.

..HART/COHEN.. 03/19/2011

Storms seem to be on a pretty good increase right now. Strongest storm is in Blaine County near Okeene. Hail up to 1" possible with that storm. A newer line of storms is developing just north of the I-44 between OKC and TUL. More scattered stuff in the NW part of the state and watching for new development in the next couple hours in SW OK. The SW OK activity is where the best probability of any tornado risk will be today.

Bringing the chat online at ChatOKC.com in case thing start to get a bit crazy.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2011-O-NEW-KOUN-SV-W-0005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF ENID...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE...DEER CREEK...
ENID...HUNTER...KREMLIN...LAMONT...NARDIN...NORTH ENID...TONKAWA...
VANCE AIR FORCE BASE AND WAUKOMIS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 213 AND 223.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0236.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN KS...WRN MO...EXTREME NWRN
AR...MOST OF OK EXCEPT SERN PORTIONS AND PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...

VALID 192005Z - 192130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51
CONTINUES.

SVR THREAT SHOULD PERSIST IN AND NEAR EXISTING WW AREA OVER PORTIONS
OK...KS AND SWRN MO BEYOND SCHEDULED 21Z EXPIRATION TIME...THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE THEN.

SERIES OF SFC MESOANALYSES INDICATE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL/ERN OK...EXCEPT FOR ONE SEGMENT DESCRIBED
BELOW...AMIDST BLEND OF MIXING/ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. AS OF
1930Z...CONVENTIONAL AND MESONET DATA INDICATE WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
OR INFLECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN
OUN-TUL...COMPELLING SMALL SEWD MOVEMENT OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL OK
AND MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SUPPORT OF LINEAR TSTM BAND
THAT EXTENDS INTO LAYER OF ELEVATED INFLOW ACROSS SERN KS. WITH
MLCINH NEARLY GONE IN CENTRAL/SRN OK WARM SECTOR...WEAK FRONTAL LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DISCRETELY BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT
ALONG BOUNDARY S OF EXISTING WW. FARTHER N...FAVORABLE ELEVATED
MUCAPE OF 800-1300 J/KG IS ESTIMATED OVER SRN KS AND NRN OK BASED ON
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 30-40 KT IN
SUPPORT OF ADDITIONAL HAIL POTENTIAL FROM CONVECTION IN THAT REGION.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS WRN OK NW OF
FRONT...EARLIER DENSE LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP WITH
POCKETS OF SFC HEATING LEADING TO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THOUGH MLCINH REMAINS PROHIBITIVE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
ATTM...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
WHICH THEN WOULD MOVE NEWD TO ENEWD TOWARD WRN OK. LIMITING FACTORS
WILL INCLUDE LARGER INITIAL STATIC STABILITY NEAR SFC...LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT ALOFT BEHIND EJECTING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF
SFC BOUNDARIES NW OF FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2011

Things are still pretty calm out there. Two areas being watched. Around Lubbock new severe storm popped up, but shouldn't approach OK. Next area is in Western OK where the cells have ticked up a bit.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...LIFTING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY...WILL GRADUALLY BE
FORCED EASTWARD INTO A CONFLUENT REGIME TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN
EVOLVING BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE PROCESS IN WHICH THIS OCCURS STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S...AS A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED IMPULSE EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND NORTHEAST OF THE MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS ARE PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR OF A SUB 1000 MB
SURFACE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FORCING WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK /AROUND 90
KT AT 500 MB/...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM A
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY COMPONENT AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JETS MAY BE
CONCENTRATED IN TWO BROAD CORRIDORS...ONE FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE...ANOTHER ON THE PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SURFACE RIDGING...CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO IMPEDE SUBSTANTIVE INLAND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY NOT REACH THE LEVELS THAT IT
OTHERWISE COULD...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING.
HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW...NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY STORMS OF CONCERN
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO EVOLVE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI. INITIALLY ACTIVITY MAY BE
IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL LIKELY WILL BE THE MOST PROMINENT CONCERNS...AND IT DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...ALONG THE DRY LINE...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND STRONG
SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 03/20/2011

Two different tales tomorrow for weather across the state. Western 1/3rd of OK will be experiencing extreme fire danger. Central and Eastern OK are under a slight risk for severe storms ahead of the dryline. However, there will be a cap in place for storm formation is not guaranteed. Fire danger will also sky rocket once the dryline passes your location. Either way, the chat room will be up and going at chatOKC.com to follow the various twitter/news feeds and occasional live discussion.

Two different tales tomorrow for weather across the state. Western 1/3rd of OK will be experiencing extreme fire danger. Central and Eastern OK are under a slight risk for severe storms ahead of the dryline. However, there will be a cap in place for storm formation is not guaranteed. Fire danger will also sky rocket once the dryline passes your location. Either way, the chat room will be up and going at chatOKC.com to follow the various twitter/news feeds and occasional live discussion.

I have never really heard an explanation of what the 'cap' actually is. Is it basically a pocket of very warm air that doesn't move over a particular area?