Would it be a pain to extend your anticipated snowfall amounts on into central/eastern Kansas? For next week, I'm about interested in the snow/ice projections between Blackwell and the Topeka/Levenworth/Atchison area as I am for the metro?

Two links you can look at, these won't stay active for long, but gives you an idea on two models and snow fall totals. Bulk of the snow will occur early, so these should give you an idea of what to expect for the week.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2011/01/07/12/NAM_221_2011010712_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/01/07/12/GFS_3_2011010712_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Two links you can look at, these won't stay active for long, but gives you an idea on two models and snow fall totals. Bulk of the snow will occur early, so these should give you an idea of what to expect for the week.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2011/01/07/12/NAM_221_2011010712_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2011/01/07/12/GFS_3_2011010712_F84_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png


Thank you kindly. Those are indeed helpful.

Updated forecasts for 9th and 10th. Went with mostly snow, but as can be expected sometimes freezing drizzle can happen when the snow moves out. Nothing very extreme as it looks right now.

January 9, 2011 (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.000498ebc160592af9502&ll=35.308586,-98.659974&spn=15.074213,28.54248&t=h&z=6)
Accumulating snowfall looks most likely in SC and SE OK...with a general 1 to 2 inches, maybe up to 3 closer to the Red River. Elsewhere, light snow or flurries sprinkled about. Could see a dusting in the light shaded areas if some heavier snow showers setup.

January 10, 2011 (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.000498f969d78c4da1f1f&ll=35.386104,-98.757477&spn=7.538653,14.27124&t=h&z=7)
Storm system will move north of OK, but will bring a general light snowfall to the northern third of the state. Mostly 1 to 3 inches, some higher amounts in a few isolated areas closer to the KS border. South of this, some areas of light snow with up to an inch possible but much less as you go farther south.

Any chance for a miracle to raise the snow totals?

Any chance for a miracle to raise the snow totals?

Wash your mouth out, Thunder. We don't need higher snow totals. Some rain would be nice but snow, sleet, ice, etc., cause driving problems with accidents and deaths.

Wash your mouth out, Thunder. We don't need higher snow totals. Some rain would be nice but snow, sleet, ice, etc., cause driving problems with accidents and deaths.

Incorrect. Snow provide the greatest amount of traction. Additionally, snow do not cause driving problems and accidents. It is the people's driving habits that will ultimately be at fault. C'mon, where is your continuous Christmas spirit? We all need snow. A decent amount of snow during Winter. Ours come late this time...unfortunately. Let there be snow! Let there be snow! This kind of weather brings people together! Oh, let there be snow! :-D

Wash your mouth out, Thunder. We don't need higher snow totals. Some rain would be nice but snow, sleet, ice, etc., cause driving problems with accidents and deaths.

Now now...that is a bit dramatic. :-P People driving like idiots in certain conditions is what causes accidents, not if it is liquid or frozen. Plenty of people still find a way to flip their cars or worse in rain. It is winter, it does snow...and really...snow would be pretty nice. After our winter last year, my yard was so green this past spring it was nice.

Now about a change for higher snow totals, ehhh. Not really. Models are pretty well lined up on keep the bulk of the precip (any variety) away from Central OK. Short term model guidance (RUC) does develop some precip out in SW OK through the rest of the night and towards morning. It is also a bit slower than NAM/GFS in the near term. Going to Sunday afternoon/evening...bulk of the snow will be in two areas. Southern system pulling away will give a glancing batch of snow across SE OK. I wouldn't be shocked to see the coverage of this to be more limited than currently indicated by the NWS's advisories. The other batch will be in NW OK with the next system. Not really much hope here for measurable precip in Central OK...but the northern third should see a couple to few inches of snow. This could come a bit further south to give us a nice dusting, but anymore more doesn't appear likely.

Looking long term, nothing really shows up as having any chance for a good measurable snow here. There may be some moisture though around the middle of the month that might help drought conditions...but cold air appears it will be coming in right behind it.

Now now...that is a bit dramatic. :-P People driving like idiots in certain conditions is what causes accidents, not if it is liquid or frozen. Plenty of people still find a way to flip their cars or worse in rain. It is winter, it does snow...and really...snow would be pretty nice. After our winter last year, my yard was so green this past spring it was nice.

Now about a change for higher snow totals, ehhh. Not really. Models are pretty well lined up on keep the bulk of the precip (any variety) away from Central OK. Short term model guidance (RUC) does develop some precip out in SW OK through the rest of the night and towards morning. It is also a bit slower than NAM/GFS in the near term. Going to Sunday afternoon/evening...bulk of the snow will be in two areas. Southern system pulling away will give a glancing batch of snow across SE OK. I wouldn't be shocked to see the coverage of this to be more limited than currently indicated by the NWS's advisories. The other batch will be in NW OK with the next system. Not really much hope here for measurable precip in Central OK...but the northern third should see a couple to few inches of snow. This could come a bit further south to give us a nice dusting, but anymore more doesn't appear likely.

Looking long term, nothing really shows up as having any chance for a good measurable snow here. There may be some moisture though around the middle of the month that might help drought conditions...but cold air appears it will be coming in right behind it.

I agree that snow is pretty if I'm sitting in my living room looking out at it but driving is totally different. I agree that reckless drivers will be reckless no matter what the weather is but don't tell me that winter weather isn't worse. A normally safe driver can come upon conditions that they can't control very easily. I remember driving once a few years ago when it was raining and a very fast moving and strong cold front came through. My windows almost froze over immediately and I couldn't see. It was very scary.

AccuWeather is the Rodney Dangerfield of forecasting. They don't get any respect - except from the many corporations that pay for their forecasts. There's a lot of professional jealousy involved in the private weather game. And, let's don't forget Katrina:


AccuWeather was recognized by Congress for its unique accuracy in predicting the target of Hurricane Katrina's landfall. One day before landfall, while federal authorities forecasted minimal flooding, AccuWeather predicted the city of New Orleans would be 50-70% flooded, and that preparations to save lives should be rushed to completion. AccuWeather's correct assessment of probable flooding from the north, due to a rain-swollen Lake Pontchartrain, provided possible life-saving information delivered just in time.

A lot of people are put off by Bastardi's style. Who cares about style? He, Eliot Abrams, Dr. Joe Sobel, and others , have proven their worth in long-term forecasting.

Eh, the biggest issue with AccuWeather that I have is they were pushing their former Senator (Santorum) to get the NWS out of the local forecast business to make it so private firms were the only ones that did it.

So anyway, back to Oklahoma weather. :-P

Snow coverage is increasing a bit. This is mainly going to be from highway 81 to the east. There is still a pocket of dry air over the metro keep more than an occasional flurry (at least here in Norman) from happening. Pretty decent area of what looks like sleet right now from Pauls Valley to Asher/Ada to Holdenville/Cromwell and Weleetka. This looks to be moving slightly north so along I-40 from Shawnee to the east could see some of this. OKC Metro proper...maybe some light snow if it fills in more, but nothing too promising right now.

Northern batch is running from Kingfisher to Stillwater to north of Tulsa. Not all of it is reaching the ground, but some light snow up there.

Winter Weather Advisories have been extended further North to cover the area I was talking about earlier.

Intensities on the batch south of I-40 are starting to go down a bit, whereas the northern area is ticking up a bit now.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
147 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

OKZ031-032-041>043-046-100000-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110110T0000Z/
SEMINOLE-HUGHES-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...SULPHUR...
ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE
147 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
BANDS WILL RESULT IN SHORT PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL.

* MAIN IMPACT: TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS WILL ALLOW SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SOME ROADS AND BRIDGES.

ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
HOLDENVILLE AND SULPHUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

It is snowing! Awesome snowflakes! Started to stick to the grass, shrubs, trees, and parked autos now!

Mom texted me from PSM saying "MY GOD ITS SNOWING!" Yay!

PSM? Portsmouth?

PSM? Portsmouth?

Penn Square Mall

It quit snowing in Stillwater. It only got a heavy dusting on grass and roofs. But people who left cars out in it will have to deal with the snow and ice on the windows. Streets wet, but may freeze up before drying out.

New Freezing Rain Advisory up for the freezing drizzle that is out there.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011

OKZ023>032-037>042-044>046-TXZ085-086-088>090-101800-
/O.NEW.KOUN.ZR.Y.0001.110110T1412Z-110110T1800Z/
CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-
MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-WILBARGER-WICHITA-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...FREDERICK...LAW TON...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMO RE...
VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...
LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
812 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY.

* TIMING: THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS: BRIDGES AND ROADS MAY RECEIVE A VERY LIGHT GLAZE FROM
THE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. SIDEWALKS WILL ALSO BE SLIPPERY IN AREAS
WHERE THERE IS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

What do you think about Sunday?

Haven't go around to it yet, will look later this morning.

Near term...band of very light precip moving into Central OK. Additional light snow/freezing drizzle is likely in this.

Mom just came in and said its snowing, so I'm going to go out to check.

I just noticed NWS indicating some snow for Sunday. *prays*

Did you get a new roof, yet?

Still nothing major showing up long term. Weekend activity looks like it may stay pretty well east, but we'll see. Maybe something around Tuesday of next week. Then if you want to really go crazy, couple weeks out looks like a system comes out that might bring storms to the area.

10 day looks non eventful...Almost thru January pretty much unscathed..Complete 180 from last year

10 day looks non eventful...Almost thru January pretty much unscathed..Complete 180 from last year

Long range keeps us mostly dry for the rest of the month now. Of course this is always subject to change. Hopefully it does otherwise we'll probably be talking mostly Fire Weather going into February. All in all, yes a complete change from last year...but weather always balances out over time.

One thing CNN had on their website this morning that was kinda cool...

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/01/11/t1larg.snow.map.jpg

Not shown on there are Alaska and Hawaii, but they also had snow on the ground. Every state but Florida had snow on the ground at the same time this week. So if you hate snow, you know what state to move to. :-P

More of an FYI to be alert when driving around tonight on bridges and such.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Saturday_Night.jpg

Looks exciting...hopefully.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Wednesday_Night.jpg

^^^ Graphic may change...

Working on the forecast. This really hasn't look very exciting, but who knows. Maybe something will happen. :-P

So I wanted to see what a few model runs would do before I said much more. NAM was way north of GFS yesterday, and now they look much closer. That also means GFS has pulled north a bit. Going by the runs this morning, a couple inches seem probably across far northern and northeast OK. Around here...maybe up to a half inch to an inch. Which will probably translate to what we had last time...a dusting that is gone in 30 minutes. :)

So I wanted to see what a few model runs would do before I said much more. NAM was way north of GFS yesterday, and now they look much closer. That also means GFS has pulled north a bit. Going by the runs this morning, a couple inches seem probably across far northern and northeast OK. Around here...maybe up to a half inch to an inch. Which will probably translate to what we had last time...a dusting that is gone in 30 minutes. :)

I'm all for that. We don't need Thunder's wishful Armageddon...

I'm all for that. We don't need Thunder's wishful Armageddon...

Maybe venture can arrange for everything to fall on Thunder's house and leave the rest of us alone. LOL

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask?

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask?

While I would love to have some snow, doesn't look like it is going to happen anytime soon. I too enjoy a good snow storm, but unfortunately this area just can't handle it to where they can get a good 6-10" storm cleared in a few hours.

Thoughts for Thursday based off of tonight's runs. NAM continues to stay a bit north and GFS coming a bit more south. So this is a blend between the two.

There will be a gradual change in precip as it begins around midnight on Thursday. There will be a mix to start in the north but it will eventually transition to all snow. OKC will start to see some precip towards the morning drive. At this point it is going to be very close when you look at the surface freezing line and the freezing line at 850 mb. So do not be shocked to see some variety of rain, freezing rain, snow, or sleet mix. Things should transition to all snow as we progress towards noon before ending towards early afternoon. Southern OK I have painted as mostly rain, but a winter mix is probable late before the precip ends.

Accumulations do not look exciting. Extremely light in most areas. It also depends on which model you go with. Any accumulations of liquid (equivalent) is below 0.1" from I-35 to the East on GFS, whereas it is 0.1 to 0.3" across the northern tier of counties in OK. So as it stands now, OKC metro is not going to see a lot. If we do go more freezing liquid (drizzle or rain)...we may see some travel issues. If we see a transition to snow faster, should be good...but don't expect more than an inch from the way it looks.

Thursday January 20th, 2011 Forecast Map (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.00049a004266220da0aa2&ll=36.173357,-98.4375&spn=7.110446,14.27124&t=h&z=7)

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask?

It's not too much to ask as long as people don't have to be out trying to navigate the streets without worrying about destroying their cars or being killed in an accident.

It's not too much to ask as long as people don't have to be out trying to navigate the streets without worrying about destroying their cars or being killed in an accident.

Let's differentiate between snow and ice. Snow is eminently drivable. Ice is the problem.

Of course, there are those who insist you can drive 75 on either, and that tells you the folks who are the real problem on OK roads in winter...

Just a couple tweaks to the forecast, but still not feeling all that confident about amounts or precip types. NAM continues to be warmer and further north with the heavier precip. So this is still just best guess at this point.

Thursday January 20th, 2011 Forecast Map (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.00049a004266220da0aa2&ll=36.173357,-98.4375&spn=7.110446,14.27124&t=h&z=7)

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask?

Move to Idaho!

Let's differentiate between snow and ice. Snow is eminently drivable. Ice is the problem.

Of course, there are those who insist you can drive 75 on either, and that tells you the folks who are the real problem on OK roads in winter...

LOL, yeah, big truck deep treaded tires do jack poo for you on ice. Some rednecks...

So far looks like my guesscast from early isn't too far off from what everyone else is thinking.

Afternoon Forecast Discussion from NWS Norman...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY NOON ON THURSDAY.

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE STORM STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OPEN MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH VORT MAX NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING... BUT THEN EXIT QUICKLY ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE PROFILE SOLUTION TO CONTINUE TO MAKE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. LATEST NAM RUN IS MORE BOTHERSOME IN THAT THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIFT IS LIMITED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURE ZONE ALOFT... WHICH OPENS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL INITIALLY KEEP SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN PLAY UNTIL COLD ADVECTION REMOVES THIS WARM LAYER IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER. HAVE USED THE TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS TO MAKE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF WEATHER TYPES IN THE WEATHER GRIDS... BUT EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES IN MANY AREAS AS TEMPERATURE PROFILE EVOLVES. REGARDLESS.. IT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION EVENT ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND... BUT HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.

Winter Weather Advisory for the Northeastern Counties from NWS Tulsa...


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ054>075-190545-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WW.Y.0003.110119T2100Z-110121T0000Z/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-
334 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...O KMULGEE...WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAW ARE...PAWNEE...OTTAWA...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG ...NOWATA...PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...MUSK OGEE...LATIMER AND HASKELL.
* IN ARKANSAS...WASHINGTON...MADISON...CRAWFORD...BENTO N... SEBASTIAN...CARROLL AND FRANKLIN.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT... BUT RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING.

* UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY.

IMPACTS...
* ROADS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND NON-TREATED SURFACES.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING. ATTEMPT TO STAY ON TREATED ROADWAYS. EXPECT TRAVEL DELAYS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT: WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

I give up for January. Any glory for February?

Dangit, I'm going to Tulsa on Thursday. Blah.

You can have some of our snow here in northern Wisconsin. I'd kill for highs above 30!

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask? Did you not get enough of the Great Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009? I imagine of lot of people who live in Florida never saw anything like that before in all their lives.

You can have some of our snow here in northern Wisconsin. I'd kill for highs above 30!
ha, ha, This time of year in Oklahoma we would kill for highs above 70!

Let's differentiate between snow and ice. Snow is eminently drivable. Ice is the problem.

Of course, there are those who insist you can drive 75 on either, and that tells you the folks who are the real problem on OK roads in winter...

Of course snow is driveable and ice can be navigated with extreme caution but that wasn't my point. You are correct that the drivers are the problem and any kind of winter weather conditions makes that worse and more dangerous. I can be the most cautious driver in the world and be on the same road with an idiot who doesn't understand how to drive in those conditions who might plow right into me. Driving in normal dry conditions can be dangerous but winter weather is worse.

Of course snow is driveable and ice can be navigated with extreme caution but that wasn't my point. You are correct that the drivers are the problem and any kind of winter weather conditions makes that worse and more dangerous. I can be the most cautious driver in the world and be on the same road with an idiot who doesn't understand how to drive in those conditions who might plow right into me. Driving in normal dry conditions can be dangerous but winter weather is worse.

Stay home and let natural selection do its thing? lol

Stay home and let natural selection do its thing? lol

That would be an ideal situation. LOL
I'll let Thunder have all of that fun.

Forecast looks good so far. I may adjust to bump up snow amounts a bit and modify the coverage area...but really not a bad assessment so far.

Winter Weather Advisory from NWS Norman for all but SW OK.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

OKZ022>032-039>043-046-047-192200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0003.110120T0600Z-110120T1900Z/
WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN.. .PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISH OMINGO
430 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE...SNOW...AND WIND. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING: LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... CHANGING TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SNOW AND SLEET NORTH TOWARD OKLAHOMA CITY...AND MORE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH TOWARD ARDMORE.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATION...UP TO ONE INCH...OF SLEET AND SNOW.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS. IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE...DRESS IN LAYERS AND LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED TO THE WIND.

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WAT ONGA...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER
430 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE...SNOW...AND WIND. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING: LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING... CHANGING TO MODERATE SLEET AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE... FOLLOWED BY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW. MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS. IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE...DRESS IN LAYERS AND LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED TO THE WIND.

Looks like it will track largely south of 39th / I-44. Edmond will miss out again.

Looks like it will track largely south of 39th / I-44. Edmond will miss out again.

Huh? lol

Looks like it will track largely south of 39th / I-44. Edmond will miss out again.

No. You are mistaken. The NAM is forcing the system to track more northerly. Edmond has better chances than OKC. :-(

Well, looks like I wasn't reading that correctly. I saw THIS:
WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN.. .PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISH OMINGO
430 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...and saw where Edmond, Guthrie were NOT included (nor LOGAN county), but most of the communities along the I-40 corridor ARE included, and garnered my info from that.

686

Updated the map a bit based on this mornings models. Link to the new Google map is: http://goo.gl/maps/jct0 or just click the image above.

It might be a bit rough to understand...I put a shaded pink area over time the snowfall amount prediction which I outlined with white lines.

Well, looks like I wasn't reading that correctly. I saw THIS:

...and saw where Edmond, Guthrie were NOT included (nor LOGAN county), but most of the communities along the I-40 corridor ARE included, and garnered my info from that.

They are in the 2nd advisory area which is just below that one.

Update of the advisories...

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WAT ONGA...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER
330 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING: SNOW AND A CHANCE OF SLEET BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO DEGREES.

WASHlTA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN.. .PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISH OMINGO
330 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING: RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-WAGONER-CHEROKEE
249 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...M AYES...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG AND NOWATA.

* THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF IT...A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

* 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY.

IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE TREACHEROUS. CONDITIONS ON THE ROADWAY MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS AND THE SUN COMES OUT.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR IS OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* DELAY TRAVEL AND STAY HOME IF POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE
249 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...PITTSBURG ... SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...LE FLORE...LATIMER AND HASKELL.
* IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN AND FRANKLIN.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF IT...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

* FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY.

IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TOWARD EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ON THURSDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. CONDITIONS ON THE ROADWAY MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS AND THE SUN COMES OUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING. ATTEMPT TO STAY ON TREATED ROADWAYS. EXPECT TRAVEL DELAYS.

So Venture, what's your best guess for north OKC for ice versus snow during morning drive on Thursday?

Would be nice to hear Ventures guess as of course the tv dudes want to scare us into checking in at 5 tom morning

I think we'll actually avoid most of the ice. Probably have some sleet mixed in and also freezing drizzle during times when the snow backs off a bit. The roads shouldn't be that bad if they already have salt down and the bridges treated. Granted, that won't cure the instinctual need for drivers to run into another car as soon as they see a snowflake.

Venture...How about ground temps?...Since we hit 50 today don't ya think the roads will hang in there pretty well or does it only take a few hours of cold?

Yeah ground temps are pretty warm, so that will help any non-elevated streets. Here the maps for current air and ground temps.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TS05.grad.png

Last quick update for the evening.

Precip is expanding across the area. Mainly I-40 and north, with some isolated areas south of I-40 (Seminole County). The more steady precip is from Major County east to Garfield, Noble, Payne, Pawnee, Creek, and Tulsa counties...expanding to the north. This seems to be the area with the primary snow band will setup. South of that into the OKC metro is much lighter precip. Radar presentation definitely indicates a freezing drizzle/light freezing rain setup right now...which is verified by the current report out of Will Rogers Airport and also at Tinker. Wiley Post is reporting light snow right now which it could possibly be as well...either way OKC is below freezing right now at all 3 airports.

Other reports have Shawnee with mixed precip at 32, Guthrie with mixed precip and 27, Chandler mixed precip and 30, Stillwater has light snow and 25. Freezing line in the Metro right now is around Norman...where the mesonet site is below freezing but the site about 3 feet (well a bit more than that) is at 34.

Venture--do we have any word on how it is driving to Tulsa? Although school is canceled (grr), I am supposed to drive up there today for a 2-day conference. I really don't want to waste the school's money by not going!