I believe he mentioned it was a below average tornado total for the year, but he also mentioned that his tornado forecast was subject to change ! Something like in the last 10 years the low was around 20 (for the state) and the high was around 130.

Its 6 weeks in and we have had 0! As for an over/under, I'll take the over on 60 just to get it started!

I believe he mentioned it was a below average tornado total for the year, but he also mentioned that his tornado forecast was subject to change ! Something like in the last 10 years the low was around 20 (for the state) and the high was around 130.

Its 6 weeks in and we have had 0! As for an over/under, I'll take the over on 60 just to get it started!

That sounds like one or two rare winter outbreaks which skewed the data.


I will say 70 with 50 of those being in one day. LOL

I will say 70 with 50 of those being in one day. LOL

That's usually how it works it seems. LOL

Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

I believe he mentioned it was a below average tornado total for the year, but he also mentioned that his tornado forecast was subject to change ! Something like in the last 10 years the low was around 20 (for the state) and the high was around 130.

Its 6 weeks in and we have had 0! As for an over/under, I'll take the over on 60 just to get it started!

Given that tornado season does not start around here till April, having 0 through February does not mean much.

Given that tornado season does not start around here till April, having 0 through February does not mean much.

Actually it is closer than that. March is when we see at least one a year, on average.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

Jan: 0.3
Feb: 0.8
Mar: 4.1
Apr: 10.6
May: 20.1
Jun: 8.1
Jul: 1.8
Aug: 1.4
Sep: 2.0
Oct: 2.1
Nov: 1.4
Dec: 0.4

Actually it is closer than that. March is when we see at least one a year, on average.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

Jan: 0.3
Feb: 0.8
Mar: 4.1
Apr: 10.6
May: 20.1
Jun: 8.1
Jul: 1.8
Aug: 1.4
Sep: 2.0
Oct: 2.1
Nov: 1.4
Dec: 0.4

I did not mean to imply we did not any before that time, just the most frequent time we get tornadoes does not start until April.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON THU/D5.

ON WED/D4...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA CA/SRN CA COAST WED MORNING. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

BY THU MORNING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NWRN TX OR CNTRL OK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60F UP TO THE LOW CENTER....AND UP TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS NRN OK/AR OR PERHAPS SRN MO. A SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 00Z.

UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY FRI/D6...A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME FORM MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PREDICTABILITY BECOME TOO LOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/20/2011

Quick side note. The chat room on ChatOKC.com will be running Wednesday through Thursday to cover the expected severe weather this week.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0830.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WED WITH THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM BAJA
CA EWD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY THU MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND A SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN MAINLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...ENABLING A NWD RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS TX AND OK.

ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT...VERY STRONG FORCING JUXTAPOSED WITH A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ERUPTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND WRN OK BY EARLY THU MORNING. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR LARGE
HAIL.

ANOTHER POSSIBLE THREAT AREA WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND ALONG/N OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO. WHILE
LIFT WILL BE STRONG IN THIS ZONE...THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS MORE QUESTIONABLE. AT ANY RATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FORM ACROSS NW TX...OK...ERN KS...MO...AND NRN AR WED NIGHT.

..JEWELL.. 02/21/2011

Tornado Warning

Just getting ready. :-)

Day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0353 am cst mon feb 21 2011

valid 241200z - 011200z

...discussion...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears likely on thu/d4 from
ern ok/nern tx ewd across much of ar...srn mo...nrn ms...cntrl and
wrn ky and tn...and possibly continuing into fri/d5 across portions
of the mid atlantic states.

Models are in good agreement in depicting a potent upper shortwave
trough moving ewd across the srn plains during the day thu with a
surface low deepening from roughly ok at 12z to mo/ar by 00z. Ahead
of the deepening low...a relatively wide moist/warm sector will be
in place with boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s f. Strong forcing
with the upper trough...cooling mid level temperatures and the
presence of very strong wind profiles suggest significant severe
weather will be possible...including tornadoes and very strong winds
in addition to hail.

The greatest threat area on thu will likely be near and just s of
the surface low track during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Latest iteration of numerical guidance suggests that this would
include much of ar...srn mo...far nrn ms...and much of wrn ky and
tn.

Some severe threat will likely persist overnight and continue into
fri/d5...although instability and moisture will be less. As
such...the expected severe threat fri will likely be comprised of
damaging wind gusts associated with an intense cold front and a
strongly forced line of storms...from the delmarva swd across va.
These storms would likely have little instability to work with...and
would be relatively low topped...but a strong surface pressure
fall/rise couplet would enhance wind potential with the line.

After the d4 to d5 time frame...model solutions diverge rapidly.

..jewell.. 02/21/2011

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM NRN BAJA CA EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND AZ/NM BY EARLY
EVENING...EMERGING INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z THU.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE UNDERWAY
WITH SELY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS. BY
THU MORNING...A RELATIVELY BROAD MOIST SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
FROM SRN OK/TX INTO LA...MS...AND SRN AR. HELPING TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NWD WILL BE AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHICH
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE OR WRN OK BY 12Z THU. AS LIFT AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
MAINLY AFTER 06Z FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL SINK SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO -40 C. CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE WA/ORE COAST MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

...TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK LATE...
RAPID CHANGES WILL BE UNDERWAY WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH A SLY LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING TO 40-50 KT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT OVERSPREADING
THE WARM SECTOR...MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...AND PERHAPS SRN KS INTO THU MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE CAPPING ISSUES EVEN
FOR ELEVATED PARCELS...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THIS WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 12Z.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
HAIL AS MAIN THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 02/22/2011

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0830.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS
AR...SRN MO...NRN MS/AL AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 80-100 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
TRAVEL EWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MS
VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES FROM OK THU MORNING EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EWD...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SWRN MO SWD ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER AND
INTO SERN TX AROUND 00Z.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...INCREASING SLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW TO MID 60 F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE
BOUNDED ON THE N END BY A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STRETCH
ROUGHLY FROM NRN AR EWD INTO TN...LIFTING SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME INTO
SRN MO...SRN IL...AND WRN KY.

AFTER 00Z...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH CONTINUED STRONG FORCING AND VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS.

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY...
A COMPLEX...AND RAPIDLY CHANGING SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD ON THU. WHILE
SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY REGARDLESS OF FINER SCALE DETAILS WHICH
WILL BECOME CLEARER IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT...MAY BE ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK THU MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FROM SERN KS ACROSS MO
AND INTO NRN AR AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ALONG AND N OF A WARM
FRONT...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE OK/AR BORDER FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SWRN MO AS COOLING ALOFT
OVERSPREADS A TIGHTENING DRYLINE SURGE BENEATH SUBSTANTIAL DCVA
ALOFT. WHILE PROGGED INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT STRONG...THEY WILL
BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION IS
NOT PRECISELY KNOWN AT THIS TIME...AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT MAY
EXIST ALONG THE JUST S OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK EWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS FAR E AS SRN INDIANA AND CNTRL KY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.

..JEWELL.. 02/22/2011

Looking over the GFS and NAM runs tonight, decided to toss out an outlook map on severe weather chances for Late Wednesday into Thursday.

Map is here: http://goo.gl/maps/Wcw1

Looks like some rain and storms may get going late Wednesday along the front up north and also in NW TX. Instability will be increasing through Thursday, mostly from I-40 to the south. I went a bit further north with the slight risk area though. I put in an "enhanced" risk area where there is a greater probably for some severe weather...not seeing major outbreak, but who knows. Severe weather is one of those things where last minute changes can make or break these forecasts. I much prefer my blizzards to forecast. :-P

Will do another long range forecast later this week.

Day 1 Outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif
Tornado Threat (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif) | Hail Threat (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif) | Wind Threat (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE ALOFT FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD REMAINS THE COMPACT CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING SSEWD OF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA /350 MILES W OF NRN BAJA COAST/ PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO/AZ BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z THU. THE ACCELERATION EWD OF THIS TROUGH WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SWWD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NW WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING BY 12Z THU...CENTERED OVER THE WA COAST. MEANWHILE...FARTHER N...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE DAKOTAS SSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 12Z TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY BY 12Z THU. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD INTO OK WITH THIS FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN AR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT DESIGNATING THE NRN EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL MOVE NWD REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO SRN AR BY 24/00Z. A LEE CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE CO/SRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO NWRN TX BY 12Z THU AS IT UNDERGOES DEEPENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NRN BAJA SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...SRN PLAINS...
A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AT 12Z TODAY WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ATTENDANT TO THE TRACK OF A LEAD SRN PLAINS IMPULSE. OTHERWISE...MODELS SUGGEST TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY GIVEN A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION AND RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF A GULF COAST RIDGE. SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN THE MOISTENING OF THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASING AFTER 24/00Z FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TO LOWER TN/OH VALLEYS. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ENEWD FROM OK/N TX WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS ERN/SRN OK AND THEN DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD ACROSS NWRN TX AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES INVOF THE SURFACE LOW AND STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. MUCAPE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS/HURLBUT.. 02/23/2011

Day 2 Outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif
Probabilistic Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_any.gif)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN AR...NRN MS...AND WRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX EWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW...NOW OFF THE WRN COAST OF BAJA CA...WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE SRN STREAM JET AND WILL EMERGE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR BY 00Z...AND CONTINUING NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE BOUNDED ON THE N END BY A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 39.50 DEGREE PARALLEL AT 00Z.

...ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO KY AND TN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SRN OK THU MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. OTHER STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM KS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FROM N TX INTO ERN OK BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND THREAT. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEMPER THE INITIAL THREAT OF TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...FIRST ACROSS AR THEN SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. HERE...850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT. TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.

A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY...THE MORE NRN ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...BUT A SWD SHIFT IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD RESULT IN A COMPRESSION OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

Decided to do the look ahead tonight... Just one thing to keep in mind. This time of year, any time there is a chance of storms...there might be some severe weather. It is Oklahoma after all.

Fri 2/25 - Calm. Temps Mid to Upper 40s North/Central...50s South.
Sat 2/26 - Dry. Temps Upper 50s North to near 70 SW.
Sun 2/27 - Scattered Storms. Temps starting in the 60s falling to the 50s Central, upper 30s NW.
Mon 2/28 - Dry. Temps mainly in the 40s.
Tue 3/1 - Dry. Temps in the low 50s.
Wed 3/2 - Dry. Temps in the 50s.
Thu 3/3 - Dry. Temps in the 50s.
Fri 3/4 - Dry. Temps upper 50s east to upper 60s west.
Sat 3/5 - Chance of rain east. Temps 50s falling to upper 40s.
Sun 3/6 - Dry. Temps Upper 40s to Low 50s.
Mon 3/7 - Dry. Temps Upper 40s to to Mid 50s.
Tue 3/8 - Chance of rain. Temps upper 50s NE to Low 70s SW.
Wed 3/9 - Temps in the 50s falling to 30s. Chance of Rain SW. Rain Probable Central and East changing over to Snow mainly north of I-40.
Thu 3/10 - Dry. Temps upper 20s NE to upper 40s SW.

Don't forget... May 3rd 1999 started out as a Slight Risk. So... It can happen today/tomorrow. Just be prepared.

We should start a list of what we need to do....starting today.

1. Notarize a Living Will and Death Will. Be sure there is more than one copy each and secured in more than one location.

Feel free to add to the list. This is gonna be a busy time.