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venture
05-04-2010, 11:46 AM
Four days in and I totally forgot to get the new thread going. Yes, it has been that slow. LOL

Have no fear! Or well, I guess it depends on your point of view. Models are indicating a change starting next week, but even then it isn't a long duration event. Rough estimate looks like out of the next 17 days, maybe 3-4 will be severe weather days. Extremely quiet for the peak of the season. Of course, it appears the season has been held back a bit by El Nino so we might actually have our busy season more into June/July this year.

Regardless, next potential day appears to be May 10th.

Discussion here: AnvilCrawlers.com - View topic - 5/10/2010 - W OK, TX Panhandle (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=34&p=46#p46)

The Live Chat for May Weather is here: May AC Discussion | Liveblog live blogging (http://www.scribblelive.com/Event/May_AC_Discussion)

And of course I'm continuing to expand the weather resources available at: AnvilCrawlers.com - Weather Forum and Discussion for Oklahoma (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/)

Thunder
05-04-2010, 03:11 PM
Yay! Venture, how much will all of this cost us? :)

BrettL
05-05-2010, 12:35 PM
Monday is looking to be a big day weather-wise. This mornings models show a possible significant event for the western half of Oklahoma.

venture
05-05-2010, 03:19 PM
Just going to go off of the 12Z models for these. Will make a couple posts as I get them done on AC.

Sunday
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/maps/05092010.jpg
Discussion: AnvilCrawlers.com - View topic - 05/09/2010 - Southern Oklahoma (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=35)

venture
05-05-2010, 09:03 PM
Monday's Outlook
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/maps/05102010.jpg

Discussion: AnvilCrawlers.com - View topic - 5/10/2010 - W OK, TX Panhandle (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=34&p=48#p48)

Thunder
05-05-2010, 09:22 PM
It is nice that mother nature is allowing us a rain-free day on Sunday.

venture
05-05-2010, 09:37 PM
It is nice that mother nature is allowing us a rain-free day on Sunday.

I wouldn't go that far. :-P My outlook is just based on convective/storm development. There is probably going to be plenty of elevated showers/storms across the state.

blangtang
05-06-2010, 01:06 AM
Crazy Mike says we're all gonna die on Monday! Get a fraidy hole soon!

Ezrablum
05-06-2010, 04:09 AM
I love being able to sleep with the windows open.

westsidesooner
05-06-2010, 10:57 AM
Monday...especially Monday evening is starting to look pretty impressive....I keep wondering whats going to change in the next few days to mess it up. The main thing I'm worried about at this time is that it may be a late show with the strong cap in place. Hopefully things will kick up a little earlier....nothing worse, or more dangerous than a nighttime event.

BrettL
05-06-2010, 12:07 PM
Monday...especially Monday evening is starting to look pretty impressive....I keep wondering whats going to change in the next few days to mess it up. The main thing I'm worried about at this time is that it may be a late show with the strong cap in place. Hopefully things will kick up a little earlier....nothing worse, or more dangerous than a nighttime event.

Yeah the cap looks pretty stout but I think there will be enough to break it by 5 or 6 PM. We're heading out Monday for sure. If this forecast holds it could be quite an outbreak. I do like the expanded risk area so the chaser convergence won't be so bad, especially with Vortex 2 out now. Not like April 22nd when we had 500 chasers on 1 storm. Not safe at all....

venture
05-06-2010, 12:26 PM
Will be updating my outlook here in a few. Here is the update SPC outlet with extremely strong wording...for a Day 5 forecast.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2010

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...

06/00Z ECMWF...GFS AND MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. ON DAY 4 /SUN MAY 9TH/...THE NWD RETURN OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE ERN EDGE OF AN EML DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN STATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WRN TX. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A WEAK...LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION MAY PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED STORM FORMATION ALONG THE DRY LINE...OR PERHAPS A RETREATING WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREATS FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM INITIATION AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE...NO SEVERE WEATHER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

ON DAY 5 /MON MAY 10TH/...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE...NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL DRAW A MOIST AIR MASS NWD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

ON DAY 6 /TUE MAY 11TH/...THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY/FILL AS IS PROGRESSES NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO OZARK PLATEAU. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAKENING SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING/WIDESPREAD STORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS IN QUESTION.

ON DAY 7 /WED MAY 12TH/...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE LOCATION OF NE-SW ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL LOCATION BECOMES EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC WHEN FACTORING IN THE POSSIBILITY THAT EPISODIC TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS COULD POTENTIALLY DISPLACE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT EVEN FARTHER S. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...UNCERTAINTY IN ITS LOCATION PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA.

Thunder
05-06-2010, 12:28 PM
David, you know what is so sad? Monday was recently my day off before it was switched with Wednesday. >_<

venture
05-06-2010, 04:36 PM
Updated Monday's outlook. Felt there is enough confidence to put in a moderate risk in my outlook. Cap will be very stout, so it could throw a snag in things. However, convective temp is suppose to be in the low 90s - and surface temps are expected to get there - so it should be overcome in a few areas.

I will say, conditions will be extremely favorable for strong tornadoes should a storm develop. The other major factor, storm motions are expected to be up around 40-45 mph. These things could be flying and very dangerous to not only chase, but for those in the path. Advanced warning time will be lower than normal, so everyone will need to be on their toes.

westsidesooner
05-06-2010, 09:20 PM
Back when I was a member of stormtrak......before they kicked all the "lurkers" out, they use to have a "pick your sweet spot" contest. Picking as closely as you could days in advance of an outbreak where you thought a tornado was most likely to touchdown by placing your marker on a map. It would be fun to have something like that on AnvilCrawles. hint hint.

Right now I'm saying between Canton and Enid. Myabe hang out along hwy 58. I'm sure I'll change my mond between now and then as the situation (boundaries, timing) becomes more clear. Anyone else have a guess???

venture
05-07-2010, 01:16 AM
Risk area updated some, see graphic earlier in this thread.

Discussion: AnvilCrawlers.com - View topic - 5/10/2010 - W OK, TX Panhandle (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=34&p=50#p50)

Westside...I went ahead and outlined two areas I would focus on right now, I'll try to nail down my target by Sunday evening. However, these are my best guesses. One thing I noticed in the 00Z run is that the cap strength came down a bit, but it is still pretty stout. There is also a noticeable weakness in SW Oklahoma by Monday evening, which could be exploited pretty easily.

Either way, this day is looking like one of the bigger potential outbreak days we've had in awhile. Which of course means I just jinxed it. : ) Instability has come up a bit since the runs earlier on Thursday. It also seems the dryline is moving a tad faster on GFS, but not too far. Everything is really there to where the potential for high end severe weather (strong/violent tornadoes) is bordering on the scary side. Especially with the risk of fast moving, night time storms. GFS maintains instability that would support severe weather through around Midnight.

I would not be shocked to see a Day 3 moderate risk from SPC when Saturday roles around. At the very least, they'll go with a high end slight risk with a hatched area.

scootweather
05-07-2010, 01:40 AM
With the person that I should be chasing with on Monday our target area is probably going to be somewhere on the OK/KS border at the triple point. Of course we are STILL WAY FAR OUT to predict anything. I won't start looking at models until this time tomorrow.

venture
05-07-2010, 01:48 AM
With the person that I should be chasing with on Monday our target area is probably going to be somewhere on the OK/KS border at the triple point. Of course we are STILL WAY FAR OUT to predict anything. I won't start looking at models until this time tomorrow.

That's probably the safer bet out of the two. The southwest target has the potential to be the later show. Of course like you said, we still got a few days and the only thing that matters is what is going on Monday morning - at least when it comes to forecasting where to go.

Going out further, added a few more days to the long term outlook. Again, these change pretty wildly depending on how grumpy the models are that day - but they are there as a guide.

So the extended outlook...or risk days are:

May 10th - We have that covered already.
May 11th - Slight risk, mainly SE Oklahoma along the front.
May 12th & 13th - Front will slowly move back to the NW, so a risk of maybe some severe weather near it it...mostly to the east of I-35.
May 16th - Looks like the potential for another strong storm system with a weaker cap.
May 17th through 20th - Potential for some severe weather, somewhere in the state...each day. Will get more in focus as we get closer.

Long story short. Most attention is going to be on this coming Monday so the longer term forecasts of mine won't get a whole lot of attention right now.

OUman
05-07-2010, 02:43 PM
Forecast hodographs paint an ominous picture for Monday evening, at least the way things looks right now. It will need to be watched closely for sure.

venture
05-08-2010, 01:33 AM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LVL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE GRT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS SEWD TO THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...A LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER ERN CO THEN MOVE ACROSS NRN KS BY MONDAY EVENING THEN TO SRN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING WRN KS AND THE TX/OK BORDER AREA BY EARLY AFTN MONDAY...THEN INTO CNTRL KS AND WRN OK BY EVENING. TO THE E...A WRMFNT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE MID-MS VLY.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...
MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER CNTRL/SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NWRN/NCNTRL OK.

BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/OK OWING TO A ROBUST WAA REGIME WITHIN A BROAD 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE PROBLEMATIC FOR A NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTN AND THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A MDT RISK.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...HOWEVER...IN THE RETURN OF MID/UPR 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS E OF THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT INTO AT LEAST SWRN KS BY AFTN. DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL DEEPEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BY MID-AFTN AND STRONG HEATING WILL ERODE CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY IN WRN KS. FARTHER S...CINH WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING COMPARATIVELY WEAKER ACROSS WRN OK. BUT...ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR S AS WRN OK/RED RIVER.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND THE ORIENTATION OF VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE COMPLETE VERTICAL PROFILE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF HISTORIC STRONG TORNADIC CASES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR N AND E THE QUALITY WARM SECTOR WILL EXPAND. THE MAXIMUM TORNADO THREAT MAY REALISTICALLY BE IN NARROW ZONE ACROSS SCNTRL/CNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK BEFORE STORMS MOVE TOWARD A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. LATER OUTLOOKS CAN ADDRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY.

OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND DEVELOP/MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

blangtang
05-08-2010, 01:56 AM
so liklihood is north of Okc metro?

venture
05-08-2010, 02:05 AM
so liklihood is north of Okc metro?

They are thinking denser coverage will be further north, but it only takes one or two supercells to break through the cap along the dryline to make an outbreak.

Thunder
05-08-2010, 08:10 AM
SPC isn't picking up on the 2nd L forming to our southwest?

oknacreous
05-08-2010, 12:23 PM
Most likely area for tornadoes Monday, some strong/violent, appears to be in the area inside the line from Chickasha up to Enid, Hutchinson KS, Emporia KS, down to Tulsa, Shawnee, and back to Chickasha. That includes OKC metro, Stillwater, Ponca City, Bartlesville and Wichita KS.

Slight chance of a lone supercell or two on Tuesday afternoon down around Wichita Falls/Lawton, if the cap can break (about a 30% chance). Tornadoes very possible if that can happen.

A few scattered supercells and tornadoes possible Wednesday afternoon in the Ponca City/Enid to Lawton/Wichita falls corridor before a severe squall line Wednesday night.

venture
05-08-2010, 03:40 PM
Updated my outlook graphic...see post: http://www.okctalk.com/current-events/21667-may-10-weather-discussion.html#post324669

18Z GFS is just coming in now, so it may need some tweaking. Seeing a general move towards agreement between NAM and GFS. This outlook right now is a best estimate going in between the two models. Risk areas are probably lined up about right. Still a lot of key questions coming into play. The one is the cap. Can it break? Further north in the MDT risk area CINH is projected to be lower and so the cap will likely be able to break there first. Farther south in the MDT risk area closer to I-40 and points south, it depends on the model.

GFS is extremely stout and also pushes a convective temp into the upper 90s, which won't be realized. NAM pulls it back with a much weaker cap and a convection temp in the low 80s - totally doable.

So going to have the play the middle for a bit longer.

Thunder
05-08-2010, 04:12 PM
David, just a request. Don't update the graphics in place of the old. It's all saved to see the progress, would prefer posting the new graphic with the old intact, so we can compare the changes along the way.

scootweather
05-08-2010, 06:22 PM
SPC isn't picking up on the 2nd L forming to our southwest?

That isn't a low forming down there, that is an remnant one.

venture
05-08-2010, 06:46 PM
David, just a request. Don't update the graphics in place of the old. It's all saved to see the progress, would prefer posting the new graphic with the old intact, so we can compare the changes along the way.

Yeah I just thought about that today.

Will change the naming process. :)

venture
05-08-2010, 08:49 PM
New 00Z NAM blows up convection all along the dryline now.

Will adjust outlook when GFS roles. If they agree...will extend Moderate further south. Also if they agree, expect SPC to role with a Day 2 Moderate hatched area for most of Oklahoma.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2010/05/09/00/NAM_221_2010050900_F48_PCPIN_3_HR.png

venture
05-08-2010, 11:07 PM
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/maps/05102010a.jpg

Updated outlook based on tonights models. I scaled down Kansas a bit as models really backed off up there. More so due to the situation of precip on going during Monday morning. More in a bit.

venture
05-08-2010, 11:42 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NCNTRL/NE OK...SCNTRL/SE KS AND EXTREME SW MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...

***SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED MONDAY LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/N OK...SE KS AND SW MO***

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A HEALTHY MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CNTRL/NRN CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING. FEATURE WILL REACH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION MONDAY MORNING AND THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EVENING. SFC LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER SCNTRL KS MONDAY AFTN BEFORE TRANSLATING TO N MO BY 12Z TUESDAY. TO THE S OF THE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO SCNTRL KS AND WRN PARTS OF TX/OK DURING THE AFTN AND BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTM INITIATION.

THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TROUGH TIMING/SFC FEATURE PLACEMENT AND GFS REMAINS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. CANNOT DISCOUNT THAT IDEA COMPLETELY GIVEN HOW MOBILE/ZONAL THE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND CURRENT DAY 2 OTLK WILL INCLUDE ELEMENTS OF BOTH 00Z NAM/GFS...MOST LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

ELEVATED CONVECTION...WHICH MAY ALREADY BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND ERN KS MONDAY MORNING...SHOULD MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY DURING THE AFTN. AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS WITH MONDAY AFTN MID-60S SFC DEW POINTS SURGING NWD THROUGH OK AND INTO SCNTRL KS. CINH...RATHER STRONG INITIALLY...SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF DCVA... DEEPENING DRYLINE CIRCULATION AND STRONG HEATING. TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR MID-LATE AFTN...MOST LIKELY IN SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK...WITH MORE ISOLD STORMS FARTHER S ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE INTO SWRN OK AND W TX.

AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION...LARGELY PERPENDICULAR DEEP-LAYER WIND VECTORS...MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50-70 KTS WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 AND GIVEN ANTICIPATED STORM MODE...INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL EVENING LLJ AND LOWERING LCL/S...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY FROM OK PORTION OF I-40/44 NWD INTO SCNTRL/SERN KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

WARM SECTOR WILL RAPIDLY RECOVER DOWNSTREAM OF EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY INTO SWRN MO AND SET-UP APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WELL INTO THE EVENING. EVENTUALLY...ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT WITH DMGG WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES AS FAR E AS THE MID-MS RVR VLY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FARTHER S...SUPERCELLS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS SW OK INTO W TX WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING EXITS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

..RACY.. 05/09/2010

oknacreous
05-09-2010, 10:41 AM
The 12Z NAM model is extremely ominous for central and north-central Oklahoma Monday evening, provided that a storm can develop and move into the forecast environment of high humidity, strong instability and extreme low-level wind shear. Still a chance that won't happen, but people should really be aware of the weather starting 3pm tomorrow into the evening. Storms will be moving toward the ENE very fast - 55 mph - so a hypothetical tornado over Union City would move to downtown OKC in less than 30 minutes.

venture
05-09-2010, 10:50 AM
Agree. Not going to be changing the risk graphic at all for now. One modification would be to paint more of KS back into the moderate area. I think SPC will move the MDT further SW a bit. The best dynamics appear as they will be in NC OK into KS. The best instability (with still very good dynamics) will be in Central OK.

Someone on ST summed it up best. There are two areas in play. KS closer to the low where we may see a higher number of tornadoes produces from a classic tornado machine setup. However, in OK there is a great chance that what forms will be 1 or 2 monster supercells that can just churn away with a long track tornado.

Storm motions are still pretty scary with stuff screaming east at 40-50 mph.

venture
05-09-2010, 11:54 AM
As expected, the MDT was expanded south a bit and also more to the north. It now includes nearly all of the Metro area except for the far western portions.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK TO SOUTHWEST MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

OWING TO A 50+ SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ROBUST ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...EARLY DAY ELEVATED TSTMS...WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF IA/MO/AR. ON THE EDGE OF AN EASTWARD BUILDING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...THESE EARLY DAY STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...MAINLY MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE PRE-DRYLINE WARM SECTOR FROM PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTH TX INTO OK AND SOUTHERN KS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EARLY DAY STORMS/CLOUD COVER COULD IMPEDE APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS KS...BUT SUCH DETAILS WILL BE MORE READILY RESOLVED IN THE DAY 1 TIME FRAME.

OWING TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED DVCA AND STRONG HEATING/MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD FIRST OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ALONG THE DRYLINE /AUGMENTED PERHAPS BY EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OR EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

DRYLINE PERPENDICULAR DEEP LAYER WIND VECTORS...WARM/MOIST SECTOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70 KT WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE HAIL. AS LOW LEVEL/NEAR-1 KM FLOW RE-INTENSIFIES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO REFLECT 300-400 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM/EFFECTIVE SRH AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY FROM THE OK PORTION OF I-40/44 INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS EITHER SIDE OF I-35/135.

EVENTUALLY MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL AS FAR EAST AS THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY.

FARTHER SOUTH...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A BIT MORE ISOLATED WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHERN OK TO WEST CENTRAL TX. NONETHELESS...SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..GUYER.. 05/09/2010

venture
05-09-2010, 12:01 PM
I put a lot of emphasis on the key parts of the discussion. Not much to really add to the forecast discussion. We know the atmosphere will be ripe. The two main questions remain to be the CAP strength and the backing of winds (to the S or SE) closer to the surface. Once those two things are answered, and if they can be handled (breaking cap, winds backing) then this will be a very big day. Preparations for knowing on where to go need to be completed today. Advanced warning lead times will not be like they were May 3rd. These storms will be hauling so we aren't going to have the leisure of watching things on the ground for over an hour before they approach any populated areas.

Edit: Zoomed in view with city names for the Day 2 outlook.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/gr2ae/592010-day2.png

venture
05-09-2010, 01:07 PM
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/gr2ae/fdr-050910-206p.png

Strong storm with some hail possible moving into Harmon County in far SW OK.

Uncle Slayton
05-09-2010, 02:16 PM
Got the Dodge gassed up in Norman. What are the odds that I'm going to get to drive it into a tornado tomorrow?

venture
05-09-2010, 02:32 PM
Going through making some pretty big changed to AnvilCrawlers.com - Weather Forum and Discussion for Oklahoma (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/) today to be ready for tomorrow. Have added in live streaming video through USTREAM that will typically broadcast radar and other images that are important.

The Live Blog/Chat is already active and is passing along tweets from the National Weather Service and local County Emergency Management offices.

Today is mostly going to be testing a bunch of stuff out, so if you all drop by and things look out of place, that's why. :-P

Thunder
05-09-2010, 02:54 PM
David, I'm curious. Which causes more damage. Both tornadoes having everything the same. One goes way faster than the other. And the greatest damages come from which tornado?

venture
05-09-2010, 02:57 PM
David, I'm curious. Which causes more damage. Both tornadoes having everything the same. One goes way faster than the other. And the greatest damages come from which tornado?

So you are talking about two identical tornadoes, going over identical areas...just one moving at like 20 mph and the other at 50?

I am inclined to say the slower one, for this reason. The slower it moves, the more debris it will have in the funnel staying over the same general area longer. A lot of the damage in a tornado isn't so much from the winds, it is all the flying debris in the funnel. A faster moving tornado would typically pull a lot of that debris away from the area so it isn't being recirculated over the same stuff.

This isn't referencing any study or anything, just what I think would commonly happen.

Thunder
05-09-2010, 03:10 PM
You're a genius!

venture
05-09-2010, 03:36 PM
I wouldn't say that. LOL

blangtang
05-09-2010, 05:02 PM
maybe i missed it, thanks for the updates, but what is the ETA on these twister outbreaks, was it tomorrow evening?

also is that vortex research team gonna try to drive into a twister or is that already over...thx, sounds like there won't be much regular tv on tomorrow night!

those slight/moderate colored circles are pretty amazing to me. I didn't realize they could get such a good bulls eye so far out from when the events occur. Crazy Mike was right!

venture
05-09-2010, 05:31 PM
Looking at probably 4-7PM initiation time tomorrow. VORTEX2 is on going right now, but I have a feeling they'll be in Kansas...haven't checked their twitter feed yet.

venture
05-09-2010, 07:29 PM
Will be running some test video tonight on the USTREAM feed. None of it is live, but some may be familiar. :)

venture
05-09-2010, 08:27 PM
OUN's AFD included this:


WE ALSO CONTINUE TO STEP UP OUR SEVERE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE
EVENT ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ON MONDAY. THE SPC MODERATE
RISK AREA DEPICTS THE REGION WHERE OUR CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST THAT
THE CAP WILL BREAK. ANY STORM FORMING FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER...
MAY BE EQUALLY AS STRONG. THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS
BEEN...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...TO PRODUCE GREATER
HEIGHT FALLS...LIFT...AND MID LEVEL COOLING...AS WELL AS A LIGHT
QPF SIGNAL...IN THE AREA SOUTH OF THE MODERATE RISK. THIS INDICATES
A LITTLE GREATER CHANCE OF STORMS INITIATING DOWN TO THE LATITUDE
OF THE RED RIVER. WE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY EVENING TO
REFLECT THIS.

All things considered, I expect us to be under a High Risk tomorrow.

oknacreous
05-09-2010, 09:33 PM
My quick take on the 00Z NAM is that the highest threat of tornadoes has shifted a bit east and northeast, to be more centered on Tulsa/Bartlesville/Stillwater/Shawnee. People in the metro should definitely still pay attention to this one, though.

venture
05-09-2010, 09:49 PM
00Z GFS seems to be matching up with NAM and speed this thing up. Dryline is into or past the metro by 7PM now.

venture
05-09-2010, 10:32 PM
I'm going to hold off on doing anymore outlook graphics and defer back to SPC going through tomorrow. However, if I were to call it right now...going through NAM and GFS...I would definitely push the higher risk area into the area from Ponca down to Shawnee and over to Muskogee (east and north of that line). Both GFS and NAM have this dryline flying in here by 7PM, a couple hours earlier than previous expected. CIN seems to be coming down some ahead of the dryline, but neither model initiates convection until the dryline passes. A lot of dynamics, a ton of sheer, but it does no good if it tears every updraft apart. NSSL models hint at a couple large supercells along the OK/KS border and then once the dryline gets east of the US-75 area...it lights the fuse and away they go.

As stated before, this doesn't mean OKC is out of the risk area. NWS Norman is being very good with their wording that the Slight risk area is just going to see fewer coverage of storms but the intensities of the storms will be pretty uniform - regardless of where you are. If we see something fire along the dryline by 4PM to the west of OKC...we'll definitely need to watch it very closely.

Since a few questions were thrown into the mix tonight, SPC may hold off on going high risk until the morning model runs are done...if they do. I won't be totally shocked to see OKC out of the moderate risk, but we'll still be in a high end slight with hatching for significant weather.

We'll know more here in an hour when they release their thoughts.

venture
05-10-2010, 12:03 AM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS AND ERN OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN KS...CNTRL AND ERN OK...WRN MO AND NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OZARKS...

...REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK AND LONG-TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES BECOMING LIKELY IN ERN OK AND SE KS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS WITH THIS CONVECTION BEING SHUNTED NNEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH RISK AREA AROUND MIDDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS AND DRYLINE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F ACROSS ECNTRL OK WHERE FORECAST SFC TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S F. THIS RESULTS IN A TONGUE OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM NRN TX EXTENDING NWD INTO NRN OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A 75-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN OK. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA REACHING THE 70 TO 80 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION AS STORMS GO UP ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA AT 00Z SHOWING 0-3 KM HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 550 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM WICHITA SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY WITH THE CELLS BECOMING TORNADIC TRACKING ENEWD ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO THE TULSA AREA AND INTO FAR SE KS BY EARLY EVENING. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 50 KT SUGGESTING THE TORNADOES COULD BE LONG-TRACK WITH STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS THREAT SHOULD EXIST SSWWD INTO NRN AND WCNTRL TX WHERE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES.

FURTHER NORTH IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE NORTH OF SFC LOW IN CNTRL AND NRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN KS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT MOVING INTO WRN MO DURING THE LATE EVENING.

..BROYLES/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/10/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0605Z (1:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

ultimatesooner
05-10-2010, 12:14 AM
sweet, bring on some tornadoes

Bunty
05-10-2010, 07:48 AM
sweet, bring on some tornadoes

But not in my backyard or even town. The longer the sun delays in coming out the more likely NO tornadoes. Anyway, it's an interesting transition to the weather that is supposed to shape up later today.

jn1780
05-10-2010, 08:11 AM
They pushed the high risk area west this morning to include the eastern half of the metro area.

westsidesooner
05-10-2010, 09:34 AM
They pushed the high risk area west this morning to include the eastern half of the metro area.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=127349 5252


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Short_Term_Forecast.jpg?timestamp=1273503846

ounbrief (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/oun/player.html)


The cloud deck in sw OK is eroding very quickly allowing for rapid warming....it's already pushing the mid-70s in the sw. If that trend continues it'll be a rough day depending on what time the dryline reaches the metro. Right now it appears to be about halfway through the panhandle.....and about half way through the Texas panhandle (Amarillo) area...but its moving quickly. It'll be interesting to see the noon briefing from OUN along with the progression on the DL. Western Oklahoma could end up gettting a prety good dust storm this afternoon.......yuck.

westsidesooner
05-10-2010, 12:06 PM
New MD out for northern Oklahoma....and it apperas that the first storms are now firing up just SW of Dodge city Kansas. Tornado watch should be issued soon for northern Oklahoma.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0507.gif

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101746Z - 101945Z

SIGNS FOR STORM INITIATION ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. ONCE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED...PERHAPS WITHIN THE HOUR.

AS A 90+ KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY...500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING/MIXING PROGRESSES TO THE WEST
OF THE DRY LINE...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM APPEARS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A RAPID DRY LINE SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO
THE REGION...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.

ALTHOUGH 50+ KT 850 MB FLOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED...TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY REMAIN
BACKED...AT A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... WITHIN A BROAD
RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE... SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY STORMS WILL BECOME TORNADIC. BUT
TORNADO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO
00Z...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/ NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS.

westsidesooner
05-10-2010, 01:20 PM
I guess Venture is out chasing the storms so I'll go ahead and post this.

PDS TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0147_radar.gif

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...

DISCUSSION...AN DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
OK...THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THE
THREAT OF STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

((((((((Storms should reach the Metro right at or before rush hour........so everyone take care on the way home.))))))))

jn1780
05-10-2010, 01:27 PM
Here we go

Thunder
05-10-2010, 01:30 PM
David is busy on the KOCO LiveWire and the official Oklahoma Hangout chat.

Jesseda
05-10-2010, 01:44 PM
where is the dry line at right now????

Insider
05-10-2010, 01:52 PM
first Tornado warning for Oklahoma...

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

OKC003-151-102015-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100510T2015Z/
WOODS OK-ALFALFA OK-
244 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR ALFALFA
AND SOUTHEASTERN WOODS COUNTIES...

AT 244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DACOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALINE...AMORITA...BURLINGTON...
BYRON...CARMEN...CHEROKEE...DACOMA...DRIFTWOOD...G REAT SALT PLAINS
LAKE...HOPETON...INGERSOLL...JET...LAMBERT AND WALDRON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT... THIS STORM MAY DEVELOP
DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER.

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANYTIME. TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE... MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER.
OTHERWISE... MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9810 3666 9811 3650 9842 3646 9875
3657 9885 3701 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 225DEG 50KT 3659 9871

$$
WR