Yeah this is still 2 weeks out, but it falls in the time frame for the new month. Long range models are only meant to give guidance at what could happen, none of this is in stone by any means.

March 3rd - Apparent strong storm system will move into the southern plains early in the day. Temps will rise to around 60 from I-40 south, but will struggle to get above 40 north. As it stands, it spells out a wide spectrum of weather across the state. Through the afternoon, instabilities will rise in Central and Southern OK and they are forecast to be favorable for some severe weather. Northern OK however, could see a mix of rain/snow with some accumulating snow possible the farther north in the state you go. As the storm system pulls out over night, Central sections may see a brief change over before the precip ends.

"Central sections may see a brief change over before the precip ends"

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooooo!!!

:tiphat:

For those of you who are tired of winter....heres a few climatological facts for OKC for the month of March. Spring is almost here

March 1st.....Nml High: 58°F...Nml Low: 35°F

Sunrise: 7:00am.....Sunset: 6:25pm
length of daylight: 11h 25m 35s

Daylight savings time begins Monday March 14th


March 31st.....Nml High: 67°F......Nml Low: 44°F

Sunrise: 7:18am......Sunset:7:51pm
length of daylight: 12h 32m 47s

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/tornadodata/okc/bran1f2.gif

Keep in mind that March typically can produce some of the heaviest snow in OKC....with over 20" in 1924.

I seem to remember some whoppers in April, too.

There's something about that graph and what the downtown skyline will look like when the tower is completed. Lots of birds....

There's something about that graph and what the downtown skyline will look like when the tower is completed. Lots of birds....

My thoughts exactly. :) Kinda of a message from Mother Nature to us when spring rolls around.

Is there a glimmer of hope around March 7? Moisture return, warm temps...

We chasers are getting very antsy. :)

Is there a glimmer of hope around March 7? Moisture return, warm temps...

We chasers are getting very antsy. :)

Are we getting SDS? ......Glad I'm not the only one........

The guys on ST are thinking something might get interesting around the 9th. Spring can't get here fast enough for me.

March 7th - Chance of storms in the afternoon/evening. Potential severe weather day as instabilities are going to be sufficient for early spring-like storms. CAPE values projected around 1000 j/kg in far western OK, with LI around -4 to -5 in the same area. There will be some instability back to the I-35 corridor. Forecast sounding doesn't shout anything major, but just like winter weather - you can't predict these things totally accurate this far out. Just highlighting potential.

March 9th - Chance of rain/snow mix across Northern half of OK. Nothing major.

March 14th - Another system drops down with widespread light to moderate rain.

Other than that, not much else going on. Can't really pin point many stormy days this far out, but this is meant to give an idea.

This isn't March specific, but I thought it was interesting and it ties into something I've been wondering about for this spring. There were NO torenadoes reported in the U.S. in February for the first time since 1950.

No tornadoes in February 2010 - NOAA Weather Partners (http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2010/03/no-tornadoes-in-february-2010/)

I was wondering if the current el nino pattern would delay the start....or push back the crest of this years severe weather season. It seems with a cool wet pattern it'll be hard to get the heat needed...I was thinking things might get really interesting later in the season though and late May and June could be the most intense.

Venture, any idea on how long the el nino is expected to last, and how it effects our spring storm season here in Oklahoma? I can remember a few years ago when the spring was a dud, but June was very active...sorry I dont remember the year.

Also, how might the Arctic Oscillation play into the severe weather season?

The 7th/8th sure might be our first chase of the season. The GFS has been slowing down now more in line with the European model suggesting some severe weather close by. It all depends on the timing of the moisture return and where the dryline and upper storm system setup... but it COULD be good one. Actually looks very similar to March 7, 2009, where we saw our first tube of the year up in KS.

Long term outlook...accuracy of course won't be the best. Winter weather seems to be gone and we are transitioning into a spring time weather step. Nothing really screams severe weather, but this is the time of year where dynamics are pretty strong and can offset lower amounts of heat and instability. The first risk of storms in coming up in a few days, but things aren't showing up that would single any elevated risk of severe weather. It's Oklahoma. It's almost Spring. I won't be shocked if on one of the days below we get our first tornado of the year. Just how things tend to work. :-P The big thing we can see here, temps are moderating some, but still will stay cool.

Fri Mar 5th - Highs Mid 50s. Dry.

Sat Mar 6th - Highs Mid 50s. Dry.

Sun Mar 7th - Highs Upper 40s to Mid 50s. Moderate Rain, up to half inch.

Mon Mar 8th - Highs Low 50s to Low 60s. Moderate to Heavy Rain with Thunderstorms up to another half inch of rain. Low risk of severe weather.

Tue Mar 9th - Highs Upper 40s to Low 50s. Dry.

Wed Mar 10th - Highs 50s. Dry except some light rain after dark.

Thu Mar 11th - Highs Mid 50s. Light rain early, then drying out.

Fri Mar 12th - Highs Mid 50s. Isolated showers, maybe a storm later.

Sat Mar 13th - Highs Mid 50s. Showers and thunderstorms, low risk of severe weather.

Sun Mar 14th - Highs Upper 40s to Mid 60s. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm (especially SW). Very light amounts.

Mon Mar 15th - Highs Upper 40s NW to Low 70s SE.

Tue Mar 16th - Highs Mid 40s.

Wed Mar 17th - Highs Upper 40s to Low 50s.

Thu Mar 18th - Highs Mid 40s. Light showers mainly west.

Fri Mar 19th - Highs Upper 40s to Upper 50s. Isolated thunderstorms, low risk of severe weather.

Day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1113 am cst sun mar 07 2010

valid 081200z - 091200z

...no svr tstm areas forecast...

...synopsis...

An already powerful mid and upper-level low initially centered over
the srn rockies will intensify further while translating newd into
the cntrl plains by tuesday morning. This system will be
accompanied by a 70-80 kt midlevel jet streak and a corridor of
12-hr height falls of 100-150 m which will overspread the srn plains
through the period.

At the surface...an elongated low pressure area initially over the
cntrl and srn high plains will consolidate into a deepening cyclone
over the tx/ok pnhdls monday prior to occluding and slowly filling
over the same general area during the latter half of the forecast
period. Pacific front associated with this system will push
ewd/newd through wrn into cntrl parts of ok and tx...while a warm
front lifts more slowly nwd through cntrl and ern parts of tx.

Latest model guidance suggests that the greatest potential for a few
severe storms will be confined to a couple of areas: One near the
occluding surface cyclone over the srn high plains...and the other
nearer to the system warm sector over parts of cntrl/srn tx.

...ok/tx pnhdls...swrn ks...wrn ok...

Clusters of mainly elevated tstms are expected to spread newd
through region early in the day in association with the leading edge
of stronger height falls attendant to upper system. Forecast
soundings suggest that elevated convective instability will remain
marginal which should limit the potential for an organized severe
hail threat.

By afternoon...a series of low-topped storms are likely to develop
from vicinity of occluding surface low sewd along pacific/occluded
front within a thermodynamic environment characterized by marginal
boundary layer moisture /dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s/ but steep
lapse rates. Deep-layer vertical shear will be decreasing with time
owing to approach of midlevel low...but low-level wind profile will
exhibit modest veering e of surface front. The primary hazard
associated with these diurnal storms will be hail /some that may
approach severe criteria/...though a brief tornado is also possible
near surface low where ambient vertical vorticity is maximized.

...cntrl ok into cntrl/srn tx...

Here too...clusters of elevated tstms will be possible early in the
day in conjunction with strengthening waa along 40-50 kt llj axis.
The majority of this activity will likely be located to the n of
surface warm front within a marginally unstable environment. With
time...regenerative storm development is expected to build
progressively swd/swwd...eventually becoming rooted in
moistening/destabilizing warm sector over parts of cntrl/srn tx.
Farther n along pacific/occluded front... Isolated...surface-based
storms will be possible from cntrl ok into n-cntrl tx monday
afternoon into monday night.

The highest boundary layer moisture content /i.e. Dewpoints in the
60s/ will remain confined to along and s of warm front over
cntrl/srn tx. However...lapse rates will be weaker than locations
to the n/nw...limiting mlcape to generally less than 1000 j/kg.
Midlevel wind field will strengthen through the day to the s/se of
parent circulation /i.e. Generally s of the red river/...resulting
in increasingly long hodographs. However...stronger low-level shear
associated with llj axis will remain largely displaced to the ne/e
of primary instability axis through the forecast period. The net
result is rather long...straight hodographs...supportive of
organized/rotating storms capable of mainly hail and damaging
winds.

The marginal instability remains the primary factor limiting a more
robust severe weather threat. Therefore...low severe weather
probabilities will be maintained in this forecast. An upgrade to
slight risk may become necessary in subsequent day one outlooks once
finer-scale details in the moisture/instability field become more
clear.

..mead.. 03/07/2010

Transition day. :LolLolLol

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST SUN MAR 07 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH
WILL PERSIST...DESPITE BEING PRESSED EWD WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE
MEAN TIME...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS
THE W COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN CO/WRN KS/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW EJECTS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL FORECAST TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS/SWRN KS INTO WRN N TX...
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS OK/KS AND
VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FARTHER W...AS A DRY SLOT SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY MODEST LOW-TOPPED INSTABILITY
WILL EVOLVE GIVEN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH
COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...THIS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS WITH STRONGER CELLS NEAR PEAK HEATING.


..GOSS/GARNER.. 03/08/2010

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...

...SRN PLAINS...

IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH INTO CA...UPPER LOW NRN NM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS BY 12Z TUE. EXAMINING MORNING
SOUNDINGS SAMPLING THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING NM TROUGH AND MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH...AIR MASS IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CURRENTLY FROM TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK SWD
TO SWRN TX WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP NEWD THRU THE AFTERNOON. WITH
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE RAPID CHANGES
TAKING PLACE AT MID LEVELS AS COOLING SPREADS EWD ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MUCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG WHICH COUPLED WITH THE
COLD/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT HAIL IN THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

IN ADDITION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE STORM INITIATION WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN TX JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE RAPID MID LEVEL DRYING THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS
THE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WARRANTED GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

ANY SURFACE BASED STORM THAT INITIATES DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD BE
A LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX.

THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN
TX...PRIMARILY FOR THE HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0159.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST MON MAR 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX AND SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081808Z - 081945Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND SW OK. A THREAT FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
LINE-SEGMENTS.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FROM EAST OF CHILDRESS SWD TO NEAR
ABILENE IS LOCATED ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS MEASURING SBCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE
STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LINE OF STORMS EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOW 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS. IN ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 03/08/2010


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0161.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CST MON MAR 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK INTO SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082246Z - 090045Z

IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE REQUIRED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.

THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND STRONG
MID-LEVEL COOLING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG A DRY
LINE TRAILING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS. DEEPENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY AS INHIBITION WEAKENS
AND CAPE PEAKS IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN THE PRESENCE OF
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE...DUE TO FAVORABLE AMBIENT VORTICITY
NEAR THE CYCLONE...AND THE PRESENCE OF RATHER LARGE CYCLONICALLY
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF...BEFORE DIURNAL SURFACE COOLING STABILIZES
CONDITIONS DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 03/08/2010


ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

Yes, we had a long-track tornado yesterday.

Damn... Here we go!

Meant to link this yesterday, but sick as a dog right now. Reports from StormTrack.

3/08/10 REPORTS: OK - Stormtrack (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=23169)

Mix of things tomorrow.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Wednesday.jpg?timestamp=1268177716

Severe Weather threat today ahead of the dryline and warm front. Evening model runs indicated the activity should be north of I-40, except in far eastern OK. Highest risk appears to be east in Arkansas, but conditions may be favorable for a spin up or two in North Central and Eastern OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST TUE MAR 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD/NEWD WITH
TIME THIS PERIOD...AS A SECOND MOVES QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF CA/NV
ACROSS AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED INVOF ERN NM -- S AND W OF
THE INITIAL LOW WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING NEWD TOWARD MO/IA -- AS THE
SECOND UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SYSTEM...WITH STORMS ALSO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND VICINITY AS THE SECOND SYSTEM
CROSSES THIS REGION. FINALLY...CONVECTION MAY ALSO AFFECT COASTAL
PARTS OF THE PAC NW...AS A SHARP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. AREA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS
MODELS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVEN TORNADO POTENTIAL.


HAVING SAID THAT...POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...INITIALLY OVER THE KS/OK
VICINITY...IS ALSO PROGGED TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...MOVING NEWD INTO NRN MO/SRN IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TRAILING SWD...A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED TROUGH/FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
EWD INTO WRN AR/ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY...LARGELY WASHING OUT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE PARENT LOW SHIFTS NEWD. THE
LATEST HI-RES WRF RUN -- LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS
-- DOES NOT INITIATE APPRECIABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER
EARLIER/WARM ADVECTION-TYPE CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD/NEWD AWAY FROM THE
AREA. WHILE NAM/GFS RUNS DO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION...AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT -- WHICH HINTS AT ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES...AS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR/DEGREE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CONCERN. IF GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP/SUSTAINED CONVECTION OCCURS THAN WHAT IS FORECAST...THE
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK.

why are they SHOUTING the forecast?!?!

why are they SHOUTING the forecast?!?!

They always do that. I used to work for NOAA and had to review documents that contained forecasts. The caps gave me a headache and I found them much more difficult to read.

why are they SHOUTING the forecast?!?!

Yeah, every NOAA product is in caps. I think it is to ensure certain errors don't occur when it comes to I/L type mistakes. The board will sometimes put everything in all lower case, but sometimes it doesn't...and I'm not retyping everything. :-P

New Day 1 should be out soon, but here is the watch for Eastern OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0020_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 20
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED MAR 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 19...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS OK/N TX THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS NOW NCENTRAL TX/SRN OK EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THRU THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 1000 J/KG...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL INCREASE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Anything that pops up around here should be below severe limits as it looks right now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.gif

Dryline pushing through most of the SW part of the state into the Metro now.

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png?1268251151

OUN's Summary of the wide variety of weather right now. lol

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Regional_Weather.jpg?timestamp=1268250698

The last two systems (Monday and today) have been very strong and very tightly wound lows.....can you imagine the amount of severe weather they would have caused if they had come thru later in April or May. :ohno: I wonder if these strong lows are an indication of what to expect later in the spring?

Live Wire | Oklahoma Live Wire -- KOCO.com Breaking News, Weather (Mar. 10) (http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklahoma_Live_Wire_--_KOCOcom_Breaking_News_Weather_Mar_10)

Join the Live Wire. We have streaming video posted. Chris Lee is tracking a tornadic cell near Stillwater.

Umm...to be tornadic, typically it has to produce something that resembles a tornado. :-P

Live Wire | Oklahoma Live Wire -- KOCO.com Breaking News, Weather (Mar. 10) (http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklahoma_Live_Wire_--_KOCOcom_Breaking_News_Weather_Mar_10)

Join the Live Wire. We have streaming video posted. Chris Lee is tracking a tornadic cell near Stillwater.

LMAO, you were the one who posted that cow photoshop?

LMAO, you were the one who posted that cow photoshop?

Yes. :LolLolLol No storm is complete without a cow. :)

I posted one for the Monday's tornado.

Venture, you may want to look again. :-O

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/1684/tornado1.jpg

Perhaps if that picture was actually from today, you might have something. You can post what you want on KOCO's site, but let's try to keep this thread factual without bogus crap.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
407 pm cst wed mar 10 2010

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Kay county in northern oklahoma...
Northeastern noble county in northern oklahoma...

* until 445 pm cst

* at 407 pm cst...national weather service radar indicated severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles northwest of
marland to 5 miles south of ponca city to 5 miles north of sooner
lake...moving northeast at 40 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include chilocco...hardy...kaw city...kaw
lake...kildare...marland...newkirk...peckham...pon ca city and
sooner lake.

It's the storm from today near Stillwater. I stretched out the clouds to form a tornado. lolol

Here one for fun.

http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/6733/catstornadocow.jpg

Not really weather related, but...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Special_Topic.jpg?timestamp=1268345093

crazy mike says we're in for a big snowstorm later this week. i don't believe him!

crazy mike says we're in for a big snowstorm later this week. i don't believe him!

It's true. The guys down in NWS is in major shock according to latest models. We're having another blizzard!

I just saw the forecast. That is just wrong. WRONG.

A pretty dynamic system coming in this week and we'll see all colors of the Oklahoma weather spectrum.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH ONE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST...AND ANOTHER DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. AND A STRONG DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
OZARK PLATEAU FRIDAY NIGHT.

A FAIRLY DEEP INITIAL SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...AS DOWNSTREAM SURFACE RIDGING RETREATS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROADENING BELT OF MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...AN INITIALLY RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TAKE TIME TO
MODIFY...AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 55F
MAY NOT REACH MUCH BEYOND TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.

THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHIN AN EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THAT
MIGHT MORE TYPICALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. BUT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
IF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOO MUCH FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING /TO AROUND 70F/ APPEARS LIKELY BENEATH A NORTHEASTWARD
ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH A NARROW WEAK TONGUE OF MOISTENING
/PRECIPITABLE WATER OF .5 TO .75 INCHES...SFC DEW POINTS NEAR
50F/...CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY STILL LAG TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...BUT WEAKENING INHIBITION IN THE PEAK HEATING COMBINED WITH
FRONTAL FORCING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN MAY BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AS SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN A NARROW
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE. AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD...THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE FRONT
PERHAPS UNDERCUTS THE CONVECTION AND/OR ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS...INGESTING DRIER AIR.

...PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS...
A SEPARATE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITHIN A STRENGTHENING
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
FINALLY BEGINS TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
MAY BE AIDED BY A SOMEWHAT BETTER INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE ON THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/17/2010

What's this **** about a SNOW STORM on Saturday?!!! Venture, give us the truth!!!

Snow storm? Ehh. Storms with snow after sounds better. LOL

Generally what we are looking at is Friday will see the cold front get to the Metro by late afternoon/early evening. Storms will fire ahead, some will probably be in severe limits with hail and wind. We'll then see extreme temp drops behind the front which will change precip over to snow in areas. Places that see convective snow (thundersnow) and other heavier pockets will get some accumulation on streets and such. Otherwise, most areas will see accumulation limited to elevated/grassy surfaces.

Both NAM and GFS show a good swath of accumulation across the state, but PLEASE remember...its going to be near 70 tomorrow and the ground is fairly warm as is. GFS is extremely aggressive, so I would take it with a bucket of salt.

NAM: 1-2" from I-40 and North. 3-4" across NW and most of Northern OK.
GFS: Most of OK at least 1". Western half of OK 3-5", Eastern half 6-12".

I'm not buying GFS's snowfall forecast since it is probably overdoing precip a bit and being a tad slow with moving the system out. Here is a more specific look at the two, highlight time periods where change over occurs and accumulations there after...all Metro specific...

GFS - Worst case snowfall: 5-8"
Friday 7PM - Scattered showers/storms. Temps low 60s.
Saturday 4AM - Rain mixing with some snow. Temps upper 30s.
Saturday 7AM - Snow with some rain mixing. Temps low 30s. 0.2-0.3" Liquid Accumulation.
Saturday 1PM - Light snow. Temps low 30s. 0.2" liquid accumulation.
Saturday 7PM - Light snow. Temps low 30s. 0.1" liquid accumulation.
Sunday 1AM - Light snow. Temps upper 20s. 0.1-0.2" liquid accumulation.
Sunday 7AM - Light snow ending. Temps around 30. 0.1" liquid accumulation.
Remainder of Sunday...Snow mainly east of I-35 and south of I-44. Some areas may be heavy according to GFS.

NAM - Worst case snowfall: 2-3"
Friday 7PM - Scattered Showers and Storms developing ahead of Cold Front. Some strong, maybe severe.
Saturday 7AM - Moderate to Heavy Rain, some wet snow mixing in. Temps mid 30s.
Saturday 10AM - Snow mixing with rain. Temps low to mid 30s. Around 0.2-0.4 liquid accumulation.
Saturday 1PM - Light snow/flurries. Temps low 30s. Less than 0.1" liquid accumulation.
Rest of Saturday through early Sunday. Light snow/flurries/snow showers throughout the period. Maybe 0.1 to 0.2 of additional liquid accumulation at the most.

Two other things about this storm will be the sudden sharp temperature drop around sunset Friday, and the long duration strong winds that start at the same time and last through the day Saturday - frequent gusts 40-50 mph appear likely. The snow should be fairly wet and with the strong winds, there could be some power line/tree branch issues. As far as snow amounts go, I've sliced and diced this one every way I know at work today, and it appears the models are trending strongly toward more snow on Saturday, the question now is how much. North central OK up into the Kansas City area appear likely to get very high amounts of 10 inches or more. OKC is a bit more dicey but the info I'm seeing now suggests at least 2-4" metro-wide with maybe up to 7-8", particularly north side of OKC.

The new run of the European model dumps a foot of snow with high winds on OKC Saturday.

The new run of the European model dumps a foot of snow with high winds on OKC Saturday.

Mmmhmm. So about that worst case scenario. lol

If models keep trending, we'll probably see Winter Storm Watches hoisted later today.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Developing_Weather.jpg?timestamp=1268941391

ARGGHH! Gotta fire up the furnace again!

The winter storm watch is now posted, includes all of the OKC metro.

anyone remember snow totals for the season, and what we need to break records?

Text from the watch.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

OKZ004>031-190430-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.A.0003.100320T1200Z-100321T1200Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONG A...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...S EMINOLE
320 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

* TIMING: EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: HEAVY WET SNOWFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY AND
ACCUMULATING OVER 4 INCHES IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OVER 8 INCHES IN NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL
AND STRESS LIVESTOCK. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

anyone remember snow totals for the season, and what we need to break records?

This is what I can find on NCDC...which includes Snow, Ice Pellets, and Hail.

Feb '10: 1.5"
Jan '10: 5.2"
Dec '09: 14.0"

Total for the period: 20.7"

As far as records...http://downloads.newsok.com/knowit/okcsnowfall.pdf

Looks like we need to break 25.2" for the seasonal record. It should be noted, March is month where we normally see our highest snowfall events.

Here's Mike's totals



http://services.trb.com/kfor/fire.jpg

OUN's first stab.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Snowfall_Totals.jpg?timestamp=1268955653

I like that second graphic a lot better. *Weather forecaster* needs to take a chill pill--seriously...

Wake me when it's over. Like...July???

I like the first graphic.

Just a reminder, rod4soonrs posted that graphic being linked to KFOR's site. It will change the next time a new graphic is uploaded.

For weather, save the graphics, upload them to imageshack.us and link to them on here. That way we can see the graphics at the time of the post rather than months later on seeing a Summer graphic in a Winter topic.

Evening model runs are in and will have a discussion for each.

GFS
Snow change over in OKC looks to happen around 6-7AM on Saturday. Main bulk of precip is east of I-35 by this time, but some lingering wrap around. Wind will still be insane this weekend, so blowing snow is going to happen regardless of how much we get. It only takes a few inches to get snow drifts. Melting will take place for the first few hours of snowfall, so that will limit amount some.

Precip forecast looks like around 1" in SW OK, 2-3" NW, 3-5" NC, 2-4" Central, and 1-3" SC.

NAM
Snow change over in OKC is similar to GFS at 6-8AM time frame. Similar to GFS bulk of precip has pushed east, with lingering wrap around. Blowing snow and all that jazz.

Precip forecast shows 1" in SW OK, 1-2" NW, 3-6" NC, 1-3" Central, and 1-2" SC.

So my thoughts, the system is slowing and this will probably cause issues with the models getting a handle on this. If colder air gets in sooner, we'll see change over happen with the bulk of precip still here. If cold air doesn't come in fast enough, amounts will be much lighter as bulk of precip will be rain. Are we going to get a major snow storm? It depends on how things play out. If models show consistency on the lower totals, then probably not. Tonight's run definitely indicate just an annoying bout of snow with a good deal of wind. If anything, this will be more of a white out/blowing snow event than an accumulating snow event.

Either way, it's the last gasp of winter before it all melts in a day or two.

Area forecast discussion
national weather service norman ok
1013 pm cdt thu mar 18 2010

.update...little emphasis on the overnight gridded forecast at
this time. Most effort is going into ramping up the winter weather
message through various products. The key feature driving the
sudden upswing in snow and wind expectations...was an upper jet
streak that came onshore into the data network over western canada
early thursday. That feature is now into montana/idaho...and
digging toward a date with the late season arctic frontal zone
that will be setting up in the southern plains by saturday
morning. With the jet streak firmly in the data network over north
america...model consensus seems to have developed. The model track
of a closed and deepening cyclone near the red river on
saturday...with climatologically deviate...strong easterly wind
components at 850-700 mb...supports the idea of heavy snow and
strong winds. The only outlier has been the nam...but its 00z run at
least trended toward a stronger system.

The main question now...is how badly the snow will blow to reduce
visibility. Compared to the december storm...temperatures will be
warmer and sun angle higher...making the snow wetter. And winds...
Although very strong...are not forecast to be as severe as they
were during that storm. Still...there will no doubt be significant
impacts to travel. The heaviest snow totals look to occur near the
overlap of two outbursts of snow...affecting north central
oklahoma. The first outburst will occur within the strong frontal
zone saturday morning...while the second will occur as a jet
streak rounds the base of the trough...and the mid level cyclone
undergoes its most rapid deepening near central and north central
oklahoma saturday afternoon. The mature cyclone will translate
only slowly eastward...such that wraparound snow may continue
along i-35 eastward well into sunday morning.