Happy New Year...now on to weather continued from our December thread: http://www.okctalk.com/current-events/19968-december-09-weather-discussion.html

Where amounts are started, please remember these are estimates based off of a 1" to 0.1"...snow to rain ratio. Snowfall amount predictions more than 24 hours out are extremely low confidence numbers and will change. However, this is to give an idea of what is coming up.

New Years Day: North Texas system will leave roughly 1-3" amounts in Southern OK and higher amounts approaching 5-8" in North Texas.

Starting January 4th, appears to be a slight warm up beginning as a major Nor'easter takes on the east coast. The next approaching system will be moving in.

January 5th: Light rain will fall across the state, with a mix on the OK/KS border.

January 6th: Colder air starts to move back in and should change the rain over to snow in the northern half of OK. Accumulations should be light. Depending on change over, should be less than 2" of snow. Light snow/Flurries will continue throughout the rest of the day.

January 8-10th: Major movement of arctic air plunges in across the eastern 2/3rds of the country. This will put us in a NW Flow, so we might see some impulses moving in bring some episodes of light snow.

Currently, no major storm systems showing up...but it is insane to try to say whats going to happen 15 days out, but this is an early (though inaccurate i'm sure) look.

Just making a post so this can be in my Subscribed list. :LolLolLol

Updated with tonight's run...confidence low considering how some things have already changed quickly. :) All precip amounts will be in liquid equivalent, so if there is any snow, you can typically use a 1" of liquid = 10" of snow. Keep in mind, GFS has a history of overplaying systems as the time frame goes out farther and has been staying relatively too cool lately.

New Years Day: Dry. Previous clipper system GFS picked up on in North Texas dies out over W OK leaving a dusting.

Jan 2 through 4th - Dry and quiet.

January 5th: GFS now pushed colder air south with the next system. Light snow will start late on the 5th, but pick up as we move into evening. Right now, precip amounts are up to 1/2 inch across the western 2/3rd of Oklahoma...with amounts up to a quarter inch elsewhere.

January 6th: System continues south into TX/LA, with some light snow left over Central & Southern OK. Maybe up to 1/4th inch of precip.

January 8-9th: Major movement of arctic air plunges in across the eastern 2/3rds of the country. This will put us in a NW Flow, so we might see some impulses moving in bring some episodes of light snow.

January 10th: Strong impulse moves SE with NW flow. Indications are it should be cold enough for snow. Precip amounts will be around a quarter in in NW and Central OK starting very early on the 10th (maybe even evening on 9th). Through the day on the 10th...another 1/2 to 1 inch of precip is expected across OK, with heavier amounts SE.

January 11th: Flurries/Light Snow remains. There is indications of extremely cold air coming in around this date, so we'll need watch.

Storm system seems to be picking up some moisture from the tropics......not that I think that will make for more snow than forecast, but with this winter you never knoe. Official forecast still call for only 1-2" but remmeber that will make it hard to see any icy spots already on the road by tomorrow night.

Satellite image(s) [US, wv] (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20091229&endTime=-1&duration=8)


http://wxcaster.com/legends/TotalSnowFall_Legend.png

Storm system seems to be picking up some moisture from the tropics......not that I think that will make for more snow than forecast, but with this winter you never knoe. Official forecast still call for only 1-2" but remmeber that will make it hard to see any icy spots already on the road by tomorrow night.

Satellite image(s) [US, wv] (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20091229&endTime=-1&duration=8)


http://wxcaster.com/legends/TotalSnowFall_Legend.png

This thread is for next year. :LolLolLol The other thread is the suitable one for now. :-P

This thread is for next year. :LolLolLol The other thread is the suitable one for now. :-P

I stand corrected and laughed out loud at. :poke:

January 8-9th: Major movement of arctic air plunges in across the eastern 2/3rds of the country. This will put us in a NW Flow, so we might see some impulses moving in bring some episodes of light snow.

January 10th: Strong impulse moves SE with NW flow. Indications are it should be cold enough for snow. Precip amounts will be around a quarter in in NW and Central OK starting very early on the 10th (maybe even evening on 9th). Through the day on the 10th...another 1/2 to 1 inch of precip is expected across OK, with heavier amounts SE.

January 11th: Flurries/Light Snow remains. There is indications of extremely cold air coming in around this date, so we'll need watch.

Trying to get back on topic (January). Last night on the channel 9 late news the meteoroligist said there may be another "major winter storm" somewhere around the 9th or 10th. You indicated as much in your earlier post. You mentioned 1/4" precip on the 9th with an additional 1/2" to 1" of precip on the 10th. Is that still your thinking, and are the precip totals you mentioned liquid equivalent....meaning lots of snow, or a major ice event? Also are there any models you could point me to that would verify this upcoming event. Thx.

At this rate (current cold temps) we'll still have some snow on the ground from the Christmas eve blizzard on the 9-10th time frame. Interesting winter so far.

Models yesterday drove the system much farther south and east. Today, the 18Z run had some back in Eastern OK but we'll be above freezing so right now it might just be rain.

GFS tonight is showing a significant snow event around the 8th-9th again. We'll see how it ends up. Right now its a 5-10" type setup...but nothing like last week with a storm setup. The setup really has me pretty suspect right now, so we'll just have to see how it plays.

Weather Blog (http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com/)

For anyone wanting daily updates.

Venture, where are you?

Enjoying time away from the computer. LOL

Like it has been advertised, it'll be cold the next week or so. Any precip is going to be light as it looks right now. The models were bouncing back and forth, so wanted to give them a couple days to settle down. They've been consistent in very light accumulations through the next 2 weeks.

This map isn't encouraging with heavy snow in the forecast for the northern half of Oklahoma.
http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/janforecast.gif

Hmmm... Heavy Snow. I'm starting to like this graphic. :LolLolLol

Things are flopping back and forth, but model runs today continue with a mostly dry outlook. Norman is going with the drier solution since models are lining up, but remaining cautious due to the instability in the models. Right now, I don't see a lot happen unless we get a good fetch of moisture to work in with the cold air coming down.


CONCERNING PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND THE MID WEEK FRONT... THE
LATEST GFS RUN IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY COMPARED TO ITS PRIOR RUN. THE CURRENT RUN SHOWS A
DRIER AIRMASS AND A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION...
WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THUS THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS... BUT WILL SEE HOW WELL SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS HANG
WITH THIS SOLUTION.

I like the graphic too Thunder, but I don't really see what they're seeing. As Venture mentioned the last few model runs have shown less snow for central Oklahoma. I'd love to see more snow now that Christmas is over.....just driving around the last week or so reminded me alot of all the winters I spent in Breckenridge with the snow piled up beside the roads. I'd really like a fresh batch of snow to cover up all the grimy piles around town.

The models show less than an inch for okc over the next week....which is down from the 2-3 they were showing. I guess we'll see in a few days.

Check out the NAM and GFS snowfall models on Earls page. (2nd and 3rd links from top of page)

Earl Barker's Model Page (http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm)

Whatever happens it beats ICE

You guys are loco :Smiley259

The quicker winter goes the better for me. I dislike snow and cold

You guys are loco :Smiley259

The quicker winter goes the better for me. I dislike snow and cold

That may be true.....lol :kicking:

Don't get me wrong, I'm ready for spring. In fact I think I'm solar powered. I can't wait til the snow melts to see if the daffodils are starting to poke thier lil heads up outta the ground...which they usually do sometime in January. They'll be in for a rude awakening if they do that this year. But as long as it's winter....and its going to be cold I like the snow as opposed to the ugly dead yellow grass. I just wish there was a hill/mountain close enough to go skiing on. I miss that.

What Westside said. I grew up in the cold, so it doesn't bother me. What does get me is when it is cold and just dead looking outside. The snow at least brightens it up a bit and makes it look more pleasant. If we have to deal with the cold, might as well get some snow on the ground.

A cold and sunny day is much better than cold and dreary.

At least this year the ice has been low

Yes thankfully. I hate ice storms...but give me a good ol' snow storm any day. :)

Spring can't get here quick enough.

You guys are loco :Smiley259

The quicker winter goes the better for me. I dislike snow and cold

Amen. I was over this snow before even the first flake fell from the sky. Wake me when it's June.

Contemplating whether to make dinner reservations for Friday or not in OKC.
There are enough places to eat locally if it's slick or uglier, but there are also two places in OKC I've been meaning to try.

Models in good agreement for Weds/Thurs on a general area of very light snow across the state. Some areas may see up to an inch, many won't see more than a flurry. Cold air is the story this week.

Extended...
Jan 12th, may see an area of precip across the state. Light amounts in Western OK, up to a quarter of an inch of liquid in central and up to a half inch eastern. Freezing line will roughly be I-40 and north. So Northern 1/3rd will likely be snow, Central 1/3rd will be a rain/snow mix - with a chance of icing in eastern sections, and Southern 1/3rd should be just a cold rain.

January 14th, another wave comes through. Up to a quarter of an inch of liquid for Central & Western OK, less than that eastern OK. This one may be trickier. 850MB (3000 ft or so) freezing line will be at the OK/KS border, with the surface freezing like running generally from Woodward to OK to McAlester. Near this line, a rain/freezing rain mix will be possible. North of the line freezing rain to a freezing rain/snow mix at the KS border. South of the line will be a cold rain.

Jan 15 to 16th - Drizzle will continue across the state with surface temps staying above freezing. Light to moderate rain will remain a chance in Eastern OK. By Friday evening on the 15th, upper air temps will cool below freezing down to the OK/TX border so this may allow for Eastern 1/3rd of OK to pick up a couple inches of wet snow. System will then pull out to the NE.

Jan 19th into 20th - Light to moderate rain across the state, heavier east...lightest west. Temps in the 40s.

I was driving, today, and the radio announced that, "Cold air will be moving into the area Wednesday night..."

HELLO??

So? Cold gets colder. And the coldest part of winter comes later this month. At least Venture's guesses don't, so far, turn up another blizzard.

At least we aren't alone in our misery. I recently found this pic on stormtrack. It shows the entire island of Great Britian covered in snow and ice. Simply amazing. I have relatives who live in Edinburgh...and they said they can't rmember a winter this harsh. Luckily our weather has returned to near normal....it's amazing how nice 40's and 50's can feel after a cold snap like the one we just went through.

UK's Big Snowfall, As Seen From Space | Universe Today (http://www.universetoday.com/2010/01/07/uks-big-snowfall-as-seen-from-space/)

Thats an amazing photograph. I wonder how long its been since that happened last? I heard that about 2/3 of the continental US had a white Christmas this year. I am sure that's far more than normal, too.

Yeah, I thought so too. The article states that its the most snow GB has seen in 50 years.....it really looks like something from a sci-fi movie. I found the last paragraph of the story interesting:

"North America is also experiencing heavy snows and cold temperatures. NASA's Earth Observatory website says that a possible contributor to the persistent cold and snow across much of the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-latitudes in December 2009 and January 2010 could be the fact that the atmosphere was in an extreme negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AO is a seesawing strengthening and weakening of semi-permanent areas of low and high atmospheric pressure in the Arctic and the mid-latitudes. One consequence of the oscillation’s negative phase is cold, snowy weather in Eurasia and North America during the winter months. The extreme negative dip of the Arctic Oscillation Index in December 2009 was the lowest monthly value observed for the past six decades"

Seems from articles I've read lately, India east to China is too. I dont know about the southern hemisphere and their summer.

Looks like two chances are potential for severe weather this week. First will be Wednesday, mainly east of I-35. Second will be early part of this weekend, in the same general area. Shouldn't be anything extreme, but its getting to be that time of the year again.

............. Too soon! We need more snow first before we'll accept tornadoes.

We have had enough snow............for me at least

I would like to see some more myself. This time though, I want a nice gradual snowfall...give us about 5-6 inches...but no wind. Just a nice picture perfect winter scene. Then have it actually stick around more than a couple days before the grass starts showing again.

I'd sooner have those snows when it's 32 or 33 degrees so it will only stick to the grass and not the sidewalks and streets.

I agreee with V and Bunty. One more nice 4"-6" snow before spring. But one where the snow sticks to the grass and tree limbs...not the street....a nice wet snow with no wind. Sometime during the olympics would be nice to add to the visuals. Let it stay on the grass and trees for a couple of days then warm up to 60 and melt. Then I'll be ready for spring..........

I want another blizzard with the same impact or worst. It's quite exciting. Just have the governor to declare that all businesses in affected areas to close and limit driving to emergencies. Anyone caught driving be fined $1,000 payable to the state of Oklahoma to be used toward roads improvement.

Seems from articles I've read lately, India east to China is too. I dont know about the southern hemisphere and their summer.


I did a little research and came up with some interesting articles. First off Australia has been having one of the hottest summers on record. To counter that I just read that some areas of se Austraila just recieved a rather rare summer snow.

The Canadian Press: Flurries hit southeast Australia as towns record their first-ever summer snowfalls (http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gftbbJOec9qHXe5VR9m2gaoUHWjg)

Amazing weather worldwide this year.

And while much of the northen hemisphere has been much blelow normal this winter thats not true for the polar region. The Arctic Oscillation has actually made the polar area warmer than normal and allowing less sea ice than normal.

Google Image Result for http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/41000/41576/AMSRE_SSTAn_M_200911.png (http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/41000/41576/AMSRE_SSTAn_M_200911.png&imgrefurl=http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php%3Fid%3D41576&usg=___FH1cVLwVVQ1fqk64Vf-6ns7tVc=&h=360&w=720&sz=179&hl=en&start=3&um=1&tbnid=FslPn6UWwjg_eM:&tbnh=70&tbnw=140&prev=/images%3Fq%3Del%2Bnino%2Bstrengthens%26hl%3Den%26s a%3DN%26um%3D1)

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

Just when we think we have mother nature figured out......:fighting2

I want another blizzard with the same impact or worst. It's quite exciting.

To that statement, I bet a lot of people think, "been there and done that."

I want another blizzard with the same impact or worst. It's quite exciting. Just have the governor to declare that all businesses in affected areas to close and limit driving to emergencies. Anyone caught driving be fined $1,000 payable to the state of Oklahoma to be used toward roads improvement.


That would be nice but some of us work in fields that dont close for anything (media)

Severe Risk today will be mainly SE OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE SRN
OZARKS/LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL SRN STREAM JET PATTERN...MARKING SRN FRINGE OF VAST NE
PACIFIC UPR LOW...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. LEAD IMPULSE IN LONG
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE
MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY AS STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW EXITING AZ
CONTINUES E TO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL AMPLIFY
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER WRN AR EARLY THU AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS
OVER THE SRN RCKYS AHEAD OF POTENT PACIFIC IMPULSE NOW EVOLVING NEAR
150W. IN THE MEAN TIME...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING 125W APPEARS
TO BE SPLITTING MORE OR LESS AS ITS PREDECESSORS DID EARLIER THIS
WEEK. A SUBSTANTIAL PART OF THE SPLIT SHOULD HEAD ESE TOWARD THE PT
CONCEPTION AREA LATER TODAY... WHILE THE NRN PART MOVES NNE ALONG
THE ORE CST.

AT LWR LVLS...SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT SEASONABLY MOIST
AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S F/ WILL SPREAD NNE FROM
E TX INTO THE SRN OZARKS AND LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ...ALONG
LEFTOVER BAND OF SWLY LOW LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW
IN MO. THIS MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
THU AS SWLY LLJ REFORMS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPR IMPULSE.

...LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST INTO THE SRN OZARKS/LWR TN VLY...
ELEVATED STORMS NOW OVER THE LWR TN AND MID MS VLYS SHOULD WEAKEN
LATER THIS MORNING AS ASSOCIATED UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES NEWD AND
DEAMPLIFIES. FARTHER SW IN WARM SECTOR OF EVOLVING LEE CYCLONE OVER
THE SRN HI PLNS...SFC HEATING...LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS /MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 C AT 500 MB/
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPE TO 1500 J
PER KG/ FROM E TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY.

INCREASING INSTABILITY...CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW... AND INCREASING
UVV WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH SHOULD TRIGGER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NRN/ERN TX INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF LA
AND AR BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHER STORMS MAY EVOLVE IN ZONE OF
PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA ON ERN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS OVER THE LWR MS
VLY/CNTRL GULF CST.

50+ KT SW TO WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS IN LA/SW MS...WHERE 0-1 KM SRH OF 300 M2/S2 WILL EXIST.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND UVV WITH CONTINUED EWD
MOTION OF SRN PLNS UPR IMPULSE SUGGESTS POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF THE
ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY STORMS INTO PERHAPS TWO SEPARATE QLCSS.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES N AND E INTO
PARTS OF TN AND AL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

I agreee with V and Bunty. One more nice 4"-6" snow before spring. But one where the snow sticks to the grass and tree limbs...not the street....a nice wet snow with no wind. Sometime during the olympics would be nice to add to the visuals. Let it stay on the grass and trees for a couple of days then warm up to 60 and melt. Then I'll be ready for spring..........

I would love for nothing more than a gentle snowfall, the kind you see in the Northeast. But this is Oklahoma, and you will probably see snow with 50+ mph winds and 0 degree wind chills...no fun. Plus between the weak economy and the fact that we got 2 years worth of snow in one storm, most municipalities around here have blown through their winter storm removal budget.

So for the sake of economics, bring on the sunny and 60 :kicking:

Whoops sorry.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0002_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TX/SOUTH CENTRAL OK ALONG WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE MOIST PBL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0026.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 210017Z - 210145Z

NORTH OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 2...SEVERE THREAT /PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF HAIL/ MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AR. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REFLECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED
MAXIMA MAKING A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...STORMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME INCREASING TREND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL UPSWING IN
COVERAGE/VIGOR POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR THROUGH
THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG/NORTH
OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH A SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
LAYER TONIGHT. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING
AND THE TORNADO RISK IS NON-ZERO ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN
AR...MARGINAL MOISTURE/CURRENT SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IMPLY
THAT STORMS MAY TEND TO BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN OK/WEST CENTRAL AR EVEN IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR AT LEAST A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH.

..GUYER.. 01/21/2010


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
649 pm cst wed jan 20 2010

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Central mcclain county in central oklahoma...

* until 730 pm cst

* at 649 pm cst...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm near washington...moving northeast at 30 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...

* locations in the warning include cole...goldsby...lake
thunderbird...noble...norman...southeastern oklahoma city...stanley
draper lake...stella and washington.

This includes interstate 35 between mile markers 96 and 117.

Notice that there is another bunch of storms, smaller, coming in from the southwest.

Morgan is hyping a BIG WINTER STORM for next thursday!

Morgan is hyping a BIG WINTER STORM for next thursday!

I just saw that too, I'll have to watch the other channels at 6 to see what their forecasts are. Metrogram shows some indication of snow next week.....Thursdayish....

Meteogram Generator (http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kokc)

It's hard to believe that we're only 1/3rd of the way through winter. With days like today it's easy to start thinking about spring!!!

At 6 he said several winterstorms are lining up, first one is next thu.

AMG ITS THE END OF THE WORLD.

Anyway. 0Z model run last night had a decent snow setup. Then it has been decreasing from there with each model run. The 18Z does highlight something around the 1st of Feb...but way too far out to make mention of anything right now.

Well they are screaming snow around the 28th and 1st of Feb. If im looking at the GFS correctly the 28th seems to be to warm for snow and the first looks possible for us maybe more towards the east. Either way it looks to be back in a colder pattern starting in a few days.

Remember when Mike warned us all about that Blizzard? He saw something the rest of the others did not. Fair enough, that Blizzard came and went.

Remember when Mike warned us all about that Blizzard? He saw something the rest of the others did not. Fair enough, that Blizzard came and went.

Remember the numerous times when Mike warned us, and we ended up getting nothing? Fair enough, those fake storms came and went.

All Morgan did was went out on a limb by predicting a snowstorm earlier than everyone which happened to be correct.

As mentioned earlier he has cried wolf quite a few times... but thats the nature of TV weather

Remember the numerous times when Mike warned us, and we ended up getting nothing? Fair enough, those fake storms came and went.

Dry slot's fault. No one can predict it until the actual day and hours leading up to it.

Hmm k. Time for me to start posting stuffs. :-)

There is some consistency starting to show in the GFS for a Jan 28th event. The positioning and location though are still uncertain. It is up to roughly a 50% shot now that somewhere in the state will see snow. How much and exactly where...yeah I'm not biting yet. Over the last day GFS has gone from a northern setup, to a central one, to a southern one. Here is how it is playing out right now, and this will change about 4000 times.

Morning of the 28th will see areas of moderate to heavy rain around to the state...mainly southern 2/3rds. Some areas could see up to an inch of rain in the morning hours. Cold front will dive south through the day, switch to a mix or snow by early afternoon. The timing on the change over is key. There is an enhanced band of 0.75 to 1.00" of liquid precip running just south of I-40 from roughly Clinton to Norman to Fort Smith. If this goes snow, its a lot of snow. If the cold air can't mix in fast enough, its a lot of rain, sleet or very wet snow. Upper levels show that it should be all snow, but we know how well that plays out. By evening snow will taper off fast, though a 2-4" accumulation in SE OK is still possible. Too many variables right now to say yes a foot of snow or an inch of rain. I would not be shocked to see a change over struggle a bit and take well past 1PM to occur. If it stays a wetter snow, it'll melt pretty fast on very wet ground from the earlier rain.

That'll do it for January. I'll go more into detail on this in the Feb thread when we get that going, but its too early now.

Snow for the Feb 1 to 2nd period is still on schedule. This will be a generally light snow. Mostly 1-3" amounts across the state, except SE which will stay rain. Maybe some higher amounts in Western OK or in areas where you get a good burst of snow. I would not expect to see amounts over 5 inches for this, so not a big deal.

Nothing else showing up except maybe some light rain around the 6th. Another system moves on shore on the 8th in CA, will bring more heavy rain to them and may impact us a couple days later.

I'm thinking it'll be to warm for any heavy snowfall....especially with the preceeding rain Venture mentioned soaking the ground, but heres the latest forecasts from GFS and meteogram.


Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page (http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX)

Meteogram Generator (http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kokc)

06 and 12Z GFS are sticking with the same solutions now for the most part. The main bug in the ointment here is how fast will the front bring in the colder temps. 12Z temps are expected to be around freezing at 6AM and fall below by 12PM. However, temps around 850 to 750 mb are going to be just above freezing. This tends to indicate that we may see a rain to sleet/freezing rain to snow transition. Precip amounts from 6AM to 12AM are light in N OK, between a quarter to half inch in C OK and over an inch in S OK. This should mostly be all rain except far north.

By 12PM transition to frozen precip should be done or well in progress...in all areas except SE OK. General accumulations look like up to 1" in NW OK, 0.5 to 0.75 in West of I-35 and north of I-40. Then 0.375 to 0.5 to the east of I-35 and south of I-45...with a pocket of lower precip values in SE OK.

I'm still not 100% sold on a typical 10 to 1 conversion on this due to higher temps prior to the period, and also higher ground temps with wet ground.

By Thursday evening, all should be snow with some wrap around. Generally another 1-3" across the state with up to 4 inches in NE OK and over 6" in SE OK.

Something we need to watch. OUN is going to start mentioning the possibilities for a winter storm.

I just found myself making a rude gesture at my computer screen when I checked both weather.com and koco for the 7 day.

I'm ready for things to be GREEN.

I just found myself making a rude gesture at my computer screen when I checked both weather.com and koco for the 7 day.

I'm ready for things to be GREEN.

Move to Florida or South Texas? lol