View Full Version : December '09 Weather Discussion



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venture
11-28-2009, 01:21 PM
Well with very little activity, November has come and gone. December though appears to be getting a bit more rambunctious, especially by the 2nd week. Strong system will move in next Saturday. Mild air ahead of it into the 50s, but behind the arctic express arrives. Still a long ways out, but this is how it is appearing right now.

Friday 12/4 - Low ramps up in SE CO. Air ahead of the system will be in the 40s/50s through most of OK. System will be starved for moisture it appears for now.

Saturday 12/5 - Temps will rise overnight as the storm system approaches Central OK. Some areas will get close to 60 by morning, especially SE OK. System continues moving SE through the day and into NE TX by evening. Temps behind the system will be in the mid to upper 30s over the western 2/3rds of OK. Scattered rain will develop in the eastern half of Oklahoma. Central OK looks dry except for the chance of some wrap around moisture that may bring some light snow/flurries to the area.

Sunday 12/6 - Temps overnight fall below 30 roughly along and north of I-44. During the day temps will rise to 30-38 along and west of I-35, but will remain below 30 for most of Western OK. Next batch of moisture works in late. Scattered rain/snow will develop in the panhandles and move into Western OK late.

Monday 12/7 - Temps will remain fair stagnant at the cold air mass sets in. Temps will not break 30 across most of the state, except for SE OK. Precip continues moving to the east. Wide swath of moderate precip amounts will development in the northern 2/3rds of OK. This area will begin to weaken by evening, but indicates a possible precip band setting up along and 30 Miles North and South of I-44. The morning precip batch looks like a swatch of 0.25 to 0.40" of precip. If this is all snow, we'll look at probably 1-3" maybe some areas of 4 to 5". Evening snow band will likely lay another 1-2" of snow in the area mentioned. Total precip will be around 0.25 to 0.6" of liquid precip. If it stays all snow...maybe some good areas of 3-5" with a couple higher amounts. If it stays liquid, we'll probably see an icing event considering the air temps will be below freezing.

Tuesday 12/8 - Models only through Tues AM. Temps will fall into the teens along and north of I-44. 20s elsewhere. Another major shot of cold air drops through the rockies with temps well below zero in many areas. The panhandle will only see single digits overnight it appears. No precip expected today the way it looks now.

We'll need to watch it, but may be our first shot of some accumulating snow this season - just in time for the holiday season.

PennyQuilts
11-28-2009, 05:28 PM
Ahem. Didn't I tell you to not let any bad weather in the second week of December????

venture
11-28-2009, 06:23 PM
Amg. I...was...planning on driving up to the great lakes that week. LOL Let the scramble begin to find an air fare that works.

Thunder
11-28-2009, 11:04 PM
I want a White Christmas, please. It only count if snow is actually falling and everything is completely covered.

PennyQuilts
11-29-2009, 05:53 AM
Just please make it snow, not ice.

westsidesooner
11-30-2009, 12:37 PM
I vote for snow too, if it's going to be cold it might as well be pretty. It seems like years since our last "good" snow, and the snow shovels I bought for that haven't been much help with the ice. lol With Christmas being on a Friday this year it would be great to get a Christmas eve snowstorm that lasts through the weekend, then melts for the next Monday. It snows so little around here anymore I feel sorry for anyone who has recieved a sled in the last 10 years for Christmas.

You still sticking with your prediction for early next week V? And btw thanks for the long term forecasts..........very helpful and in the past very accurate.

PennyQuilts
11-30-2009, 01:56 PM
Christmas Eve snowstorm is okay cept one of my daughters is coming in. Make it after 11:00 pm.

westsidesooner
11-30-2009, 02:20 PM
Then let the first snow flakes start falling as she arrives at your door. 11:01 is fine with me. Getting together with family is the best part of Christmas......

PennyQuilts
11-30-2009, 04:08 PM
Thanks, WSS!

venture
12-01-2009, 01:14 AM
Wanted to quickly hit on short term winter weather chances. Model "A" - Precip spreads north early Weds morning through afternoon. Mainly along and south of I-44. Clearing out during the evening. Surface temps will remain around 40-43 across most of the state. Cold air does filter in, in the upper levels, by 7-9AM Weds...so there might be some snow mixing in. However nothing will stick.

Model "B" - Precip develops in the same time frame, but extends a but more to the north. Moves out of Central Ok by early afternoon. Similar to model "A"...cooler air upstairs moves in by afternoon, but precip may be ending. Some snow might mix in, but again...nothing sticks.

On to the weekend and next week. Things are modified a bit, but swings in model output will always be crazy this far out.

Sunday - Precip starts to develop across Central OK around sunrise. This will be light and in response to a system moving along the Red River. Temps will be below 35 at this time, so precip may be a winter mix of rain and snow or perhaps all light snow. Light precip continues are temps hover in the mid to upper 30s. Total precip accumulation during this time will be less than a tenth of an inch of water, or less than an inch of snow (if all snow).

Monday/Tuesday - Dry Monday highs in the low to mid 30s. Tuesday next system gets ready to move in. System will move out of the Rockies Tuesday. Temps early Tue will start in the upper 20s to low 30s across most of the state. By afternoon, temps will rise in the low 30s northern half of OK, mid 30s Central...and low 40s south. Precip starts light in the morning and picks up during the day. By afternoon moderate precip will develop across most of OK except extreme SE OK. Northern half of OK spreading down to Lawton and Pauls Valley, will see precip amounts up to a quarter inch of liquid. Upper air freezing line will be roughly in the same area.

Wednesday: Temps will fall below 30 in all by extreme SC and SE OK. Precip will continue with very light amounts west to light and moderate amounts as you go east. Central sections may see another tenth of an inch of precip and up to a quarter inch NE. Precip ends quickly in the afternoon. Highs will remain in the upper 20s in Central and N OK, with low 30s in southern areas. Precip may start out as a mix in central areas, but will transition to all snow.

Total snowfall amounts looks like they will pretty light. Depending on the change over from rain to snow, through Tuesday evening NW OK will pick up 1-2" of snow, around 1" in the rest of Northern OK, and less than an inch in Central OK due to extended periods of liquid precip. Wed AM through PM...Dusting/Flurries in W OK, about 1" in Cental OK, and 1-3" in the NE quarter of OK. Right now Central OK is looking at maybe an inch, if change over happens faster Tuesday... 1-3".

Thursday: Quick moving system drops out of the rockies, not a lot of precip right now with it, but light snow providing a dusting may move across NW OK.

PennyQuilts
12-01-2009, 03:30 AM
Thanks Venture. Try to keep the 13 - 15th in good shape, whill ya?

venture
12-03-2009, 02:52 AM
Thanks Venture. Try to keep the 13 - 15th in good shape, whill ya?

I tryin'...I tryin'. ;-)

Tonights run seems to have bounced back over to a higher precip solution.

Sunday - First effects come in late Sunday, mainly east of I-35 with very light and isolated precip. Temps will mainly be in the Mid 30s to Low 40s. So this should be mostly rain or flurries if it is snow anywhere.

Monday - Quiet. Highs in the Upper 20s NW to Low 40s SE.

Tuesday - Storm organizes in CO and starts to spread light precip early Tuesday north of I-40 and west of I-35. Precip amounts increase north of I-40 throughout the day, with some light amounts south. First wave moves out late Tuesday. Next shot comes into SW OK around the same time as the surface low moves just south of the Red River. During the day there will be some warming. Temps in the northern 1/3rd of the state will remain below freezing. Central sections will bounce back and forth by will be a few degrees around 35 the way it looks. By Weds evening, freezing line should be just along I-44 and moving SE. In an area North of I-40 and North of I-44...snowfall amounts, the way it looks now, will be in the 1-3" range. Higher amounts in North Central OK where we could see some isolated 3-6" totals. SW Oklahoma, in some areas, can see 1-2" just north of where the freezing line sets up.

Wednesday - Overnight, low will move past and an enhanced area of precip will develop across OK. Heaviest area right now looks to be in Central OK (metro) extending NE to Tulsa. This are should push out quickly and be gone by mid morning. Temps by midnight should be below 30 across all but extreme SE OK. Temps in Central sections will be in the mid 20s. If precip develops as is current indicated, this will setup a band of 3-6"...right now that appears to be around the OKC Metro to just SW of Tulsa. Areas except far NW OK and far SE OK should at least see 1-3".

Snow banding is extremely difficult to forecast more than like 6-12 hours out...so this is a total crap shoot. A lot of the times this type of setup for the Weds period won't materialize as all the energy transfers to the east too fast. During this time the surface low will be picking up strength in Alabama and racing to the east. Severe weather is going to be a big risk out that way, but we are entering their season for it. This system does appear to be on its way to setup a somewhat classic Nor'easter, though positioning looks to be a bit off right now.

13-15 are looking some what okay right now. Does look like precip east of the Mississippi on Sunday the 13th. However, long ways out, so will hold off on that.

Anywho. It does seem SOMETHING will happen next week. The magnitude is really hard to forecast until we get closer. This is one of those things, if the cold air doesn't establish itself...it will be wet and that'll be that. If the cold air does settle in, we may have to shovel a bit. The Christmas lights will look nice though if that happens. :)

venture
12-03-2009, 02:58 AM
NWS Norman's comments this morning on the crazy low temps. The models have been kind of stubborn with these though, so we'll see what happens.


THERE ARE SOME SPECIFIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AFFECTING FORECAST
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD IS
RIDICULOUS WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. H8
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z/WEDNESDAY HAVE A SPREAD OF 16.5 DEGREES C AT
OKC /FROM -7.5 TO +9/ AND 23 DEGREES C AT GAG /-13 TO +10/.
GFS ENSEMBLE GRIDDED SURFACE MAX TEMPERATURE FIELDS ALSO SHOW A
HEALTHY RANGE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES FROM 26 TO 58 AT
GAGE AND 33 TO 66 AT WICHITA FALLS. SOME OF THIS DIFFERENCE IS
EXPLAINED BY JUST WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS LOCATED AS ALMOST ALL MEMBERS /AS WELL AS ECMWF/ SHOW
COLD AIR MOVING AT LEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... BUT THIS
SPREAD GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE. WITH THE SIGNAL OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS... WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED... BUT NOT
NEARLY AS LOW AS MEX MOS NUMBERS AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ONE OF
THE COLDER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROF THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS WITH BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

In English...the group of models they are using aren't in agreement with the cold front positioning and amount of cold air that will dump in. They seem like they will trend down, but not to the levels I pointed out earlier. The new forecast isn't out yet...but they are going for highs in the mid 40s Monday and Tuesday, and around 50 on Wednesday. However, the highlighted text says it all. The spread in the models means they have very little confidence in any of them so we just have to wait.

Thunder
12-03-2009, 04:26 AM
This make me sick that Texas get all the snow...

mugofbeer
12-03-2009, 10:27 AM
I love these weather threads. I took 9 hours of meteorology in college thinking I wanted to be one before I realized how much math it required. Now I realize how little I know compared to some of you. Keep it up!

venture
12-03-2009, 12:58 PM
So after taking time looking at the morning run, the thing is still being stubborn with staying cold. I worked up a couple maps to try to make this easier. Typical disclaimer first...predicting winter storms this far out will normally mean I'll be wrong, but it is fun to try. All this is dependent on the cold air getting in place as some models are expecting. If it doesn't arrive, it'll all be rain or more of a mix. On the maps, the "Mix" area will generally be in locations where the surface temp is near freezing (either just above or below) and where the upper air temps are either just above or below as well. The area will likely fluctuate quite a bit. The amounts for this zone will always be in liquid form. I'm just going with the basic 0.1" liquid to 1" of snow ratio here, but that will probably be off a bit. The mix area doesn't mean ice...the pattern really doesn't look like an ice storm setup. More so rain/snow/sleet mix with some isolated areas of freezing rain.

Through Tuesday Early Afternoon:
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/snowmap-120809-through1pm.png

Tuesday Evening
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/snowmap-120809-evening.png

Overnight Tues/Early Weds AM
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/snowmap-120909-earlyam.png

The shading on the 2nd graphic I screwed up, so just pay attention to the values. The very light blue shadding is an area with scattered light snow/flurries - no accumulation expected in those areas. In the last graphic, the snow in SW Oklahoma is going to be closer to an inch accumulation...not so much towards the 3" end.

venture
12-03-2009, 02:54 PM
NWS Norman now starting to move into the same line of thinking. Not to really make a point or anything, but just saying. :-P lol


PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR...THOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY EXTREMELY COLD...WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE. EVOLUTION OF A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA MOSTLY IN A
DRY SLOT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECASTS
THE SURFACE LOW TO BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.

THINKING THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THE COLD AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE SUNDAY FRONT IN SUCH A SHORT TIME...WE WILL SIDE
WITH THE GFS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AT THIS
POINT... WITH MOSTLY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA... AND A
POSSIBLE MIX OF PRECIP TYPES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK. WITH
A SIZABLE SPREAD AMONG GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THIS IS NOT A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY ANY MEANS...BUT THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS BEEN NOTABLE.

venture
12-03-2009, 11:29 PM
This evening's run of GFS was a HUGE flip from the previous runs. It has the storm system now moving through Northern OK/Southern KS. Majority of Oklahoma dry slotted similar to the earlier ECMWF. There will be a shot of precip late Tuesday into early Wednesday, but temps are being pushed in the mid 50s now.

Usually when you see a model make this big of a jump, we need to watch it for a couple more runs before adjusting thinking.

ronronnie1
12-04-2009, 01:49 PM
Ugh. Wake me up in Spring.

venture
12-04-2009, 11:08 PM
Trend continues in taking the low north. I'll probably redo the precip forecast on Sunday after we get a few more shorter term models able to pick up the time period.

venture
12-05-2009, 10:49 AM
Models are bringing the system a bit further south into Northern OK this morning, but are dry slotting the entire state now. Ahhhh the joys of trying to predict these things so far out. :-P

buckt
12-05-2009, 11:17 AM
Models are bringing the system a bit further south into Northern OK this morning, but are dry slotting the entire state now. Ahhhh the joys of trying to predict these things so far out. :-P

I for one, greatly appreciate the postings you provide! Thanks...

PennyQuilts
12-05-2009, 05:12 PM
Me too!

Thunder
12-05-2009, 10:25 PM
They need to remove the term "dry slot" and stop mentioning it. I notice when they bring it up, it happens.

venture
12-07-2009, 11:07 AM
Urgent - winter weather message
national weather service norman ok
1150 am cst mon dec 7 2009

okz014>026-033>036-080200-
/o.new.koun.ww.y.0006.091208t0300z-091208t1500z/
roger mills-dewey-custer-blaine-kingfisher-logan-payne-beckham-
wa****a-caddo-canadian-oklahoma-lincoln-harmon-greer-kiowa-
jackson-
including the cities of...cheyenne...taloga...weatherford...
Clinton...watonga...kingfisher...guthrie...stillwa ter...
Elk city...sayre...cordell...anadarko...yukon...el reno...
Mustang...oklahoma city...chandler...hollis...mangum...hobart...
Altus
1150 am cst mon dec 7 2009

...winter weather advisory in effect from 9 pm this evening to
9 am cst tuesday...

The national weather service in norman has issued a winter
weather advisory for freezing drizzle and light freezing rain which
is in effect from 9 pm this evening to 9 am cst tuesday.

* timing: Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain may develop by
mid evening but a better opportunity will be overnight into early
tuesday morning.

* main impact: Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses
may develop light accumulations of ice which will cause
hazardous driving conditions.

* other impacts: Some of the precipitation across northern
oklahoma may start as light snow...with light or no snow accumulation.



Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Freezing drizzle and freezing rain rain may cause hazardous driving
conditions. Slow down and be ready for slick spots.

westsidesooner
12-07-2009, 02:04 PM
While I was hopeing for some snow tomorrow the winter is still young, actually not even here yet, so keep up the faith Thunder and all you snow lovers.

I think the main bite with this storm will be the incredible wind on Tuesday night and Wednesday. I've heard forecasts of winds in the 40-50 mph range. (hope my decorations dont blow off the house) Put that in the equation with temps in the 20's and we might as well live in Alaska. The cold I can stand.......I hate hate hate cold windy days. I'd rather it be 0 degrees and calm than 28 and windy. If its going to be cold I just wish there was a pretty snowfall to offset it.

Would love to be in sw Colorado for this storm, or anywhere from Salina Kansas to Des Moines.....they should get hammered with snow.

venture
12-07-2009, 03:37 PM
Here is how it looks. Areas in white will probably bounce from light snow to freezing drizzle or rain. Pink areas a mix of freezing drizzle and a snow flake or two. Areas in green may see some freezing drizzle overnight, but it'll go above freezing pretty quick. The border between pink and green is going to vary, since that is pretty close to the 30 degree line.

NWS has the advisory area in the pink shaded regions...don't expect things to really be all that bad. Just don't be crazy and drive to fast if the pavement is wet and it is below freezing.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/snowmap12809.png

venture
12-07-2009, 09:46 PM
Drizzle is developing from Duncan to Pauls Valley up to Okemah. Temps are below freezing along and north of this line as well. Winter Wx Advisory expanded a bit to account for this.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009

OKZ027>031-081200-
/O.EXA.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-091208T1500Z/
GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE
955 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING: FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
MAY DEVELOP LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WHICH WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW...WITH LIGHT OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN RAIN MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. SLOW DOWN AND BE READY FOR SLICK SPOTS.

westsidesooner
12-08-2009, 02:55 PM
Just another reminder.....its going to be cold as a witchs t** tonight and tomorrow. Currently the cold front is moving thru the panhandle and the temperature there is only 15 with a north wind gusting over 50 mph. Meaning the wind chill is well below ZERO. The front should make the metro by mid evening.....so do whatever you need to to prepare. Check on neighbors, tie down the lawn furniture, and bring in the critters. I hate cold.

Oklahoma Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.org/)

mugofbeer
12-08-2009, 10:31 PM
Be thankful u dont live in Iowa tonight.....

Thunder
12-08-2009, 10:34 PM
As the guy said, Winter is still young. We'll have a chance at what Iowa is getting.

westsidesooner
12-09-2009, 02:32 PM
Be thankful u dont live in Iowa tonight.....

Acually I was kinda wishing I was there. lol. As long as it's going to be cold it might as well be interesting. But then again since I'm home for the next six weeks due to medical procedures I wouldn't have to deal with shoveling, driving, or any of the other inconvient aspects of winter weather. I'd just have to stock up on food and firewood and look out the windows.....provided we don't lose power.

Really wish I could be in a well-stocked cabin in the mountains of Colorado for the winter especially at Christmas time.....provided I had a snowmobile to get around in. Oh yeah and a satelite tv w/remote. One of lifes necessities. I miss snow skiing. sigh.

bretthexum
12-09-2009, 03:31 PM
My parents in Wisconsin got pounded too. Also some friends in the Wi snowbelt got over 18 inches and still snowing. I miss the snow, but not the cold that follows these big storms. 35 below wind chills tonight? No thanks!

mugofbeer
12-09-2009, 03:40 PM
I probably will too, but the novelty of snow wore off quickly living in Denver during the 2004 blizzard and having to shovel 3 feet of wet "beach sand" off my drive and walk.

Charlie40
12-14-2009, 02:25 PM
Here is what the NWS models are possibly predicting for next week.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST SOME RATHER UGLY WINTER-
WEATHER SCENARIOS FOR NEXT WEEK -- BEYOND OUR DAY 7. THEIR TIMING
IS NATURALLY VERY DIFFERENT... BUT BOTH FORECAST SOME TYPE OF
SIGNIFICANT FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OR
END OF NEXT WEEK. THAT IS STILL A WAYS OFF... SO MUCH CAN CHANGE.

How do you digest this in your model runs for next week Venture?

venture
12-14-2009, 03:56 PM
Its looking interesting, but so did the last one. LOL However, ECMWF is on board this time too which makes it a bit easier to lock on to. Going to see how things go. Total precip amounts look pretty significant...1" to 1.5" across the southeastern 2/3rds of OK essentially. Surface temps look to be below freezing, but I'm a bit concerned about temps at 850mb which are going to hover right around freezing. So I would say NW of I-44 should stay all snow, SE of I-44 will probably see sleet/freezing rain changing over to snow.

That is just a rough guess right now, I'll start throwing some things together after the run tonight probably.

venture
12-14-2009, 11:24 PM
Evenings run was significantly warmer with the system. Also precip moves out pretty quick. We'll see how things look as we get into the weekend. Right now, looks like mostly rain with a little light snow on the wrap around in Northern OK.

bretthexum
12-15-2009, 09:56 PM
Wow, the 0Z GFS went almost dry now for next week.

venture
12-15-2009, 11:52 PM
Yeah it sure did. I was just looking at that. Well damn...a White Christmas would have been nice. Heck...snow would be nice to cover all this dead stuff outside. LOL

rod4soonrs
12-16-2009, 09:53 AM
From Ch. 5 blog:

DISCLAIMER–THIS IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

I just want to give you a heads up as to what is possible next week. We will tweak this forecast as the days go by.

Cold temps are a pretty good bet next week. The question is, will it snow next week right before Christmas? Well…this setup is looking more and more promising as the days go by. The computer models are not in EXCELLENT agreement, but its possible to see some snow in our state by next Wednesday. We may start off with a mix and transition to snow in the afternoon. One thing is certain, it WILL BE COLD!! This is a ROUGH SKETCH at best.


http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/rough-scetch.jpg

bretthexum
12-16-2009, 02:16 PM
GFS went back a little wetter, much wetter just east of us. I think last nights run was just a fluke. I'm guessing we'll see some weather, just depends on the amounts.

venture
12-16-2009, 03:58 PM
Yeah I'm seeing the wetter GFS in the afternoon run, but temps still seem a bit warm. We'll see what happens the next couple. The models really are not doing very long with this long term stuff. lol

Thunder
12-17-2009, 03:55 AM
They need to toss them out and get a major upgrade...

bretthexum
12-17-2009, 09:26 AM
Still looking too warm now for anything major. Booo.... was wanting a white xmas.

venture
12-17-2009, 01:33 PM
Well depending on how you want to stretch the definition of a white Christmas...I would say there is about a 10% chance right now for light snow/flurries on Christmas Day. It would be with in the wrap around of the storm, so it is a long shot. Granted the most common definition is 1" of snow or more on the ground, but doesn't seem like that will happen.

Further out...up through New Year's will be cool to cold, so winter is here for a bit.

Bostonfan
12-17-2009, 05:30 PM
Interesting, Mike Morgan just stated there was a good chance at a white Christmas. He said the models have pretty much stayed the same. What's this all about?

bretthexum
12-17-2009, 07:39 PM
Interesting, Mike Morgan just stated there was a good chance at a white Christmas. He said the models have pretty much stayed the same. What's this all about?

I guess it's a matter of definition. My white xmas's used to be snowmobiling and ice fishing with 30 inches on the ground in NW Wisconsin. I think the official definition is a trace of snow, which I wouldn't be surprised to see. Still not seeing much in terms of a major event though. Hopefully I'm wrong!

edit:
Just his graphic on "possible winter storm". I don't know man... I just aint seeing it.

Thunder
12-18-2009, 12:40 AM
I like how Mike is giving us more hope. Sorry, Venture, I'll root for Mike this time. Christmas Eve and the next day goes downright cold with chance for snow.

venture
12-18-2009, 01:08 AM
I like how Mike is giving us more hope. Sorry, Venture, I'll root for Mike this time. Christmas Eve and the next day goes downright cold with chance for snow.

Ehhh....I think is going for the off chance the precip moves west about 300 miles. However, Christmas Eve...the storm is well into the Lower Lakes region.

Wednesday Evening...
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/gfsSP_0_prec_144.gif

Christmas Eve...
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/gfsSP_0_prec_168.gif

westsidesooner
12-18-2009, 10:44 AM
I sure wish we'd get some snow for Christmas. At least enough to make it pretty outside, can you imagine the Chesapeake trees with snow on them? ...how long has it been since we've had a white christmas?

On another thought we have family driving in from the KC area on Thursday...any idea what travel will be like up north along 35 and the turnpike to KC?

venture
12-18-2009, 10:52 AM
I sure wish we'd get some snow for Christmas. At least enough to make it pretty outside, can you imagine the Chesapeake trees with snow on them? ...how long has it been since we've had a white christmas?

On another thought we have family driving in from the KC area on Thursday...any idea what travel will be like up north along 35 and the turnpike to KC?

Looks like probably light to moderate snow around KC and eastern Kansas, then some flurries until about N OK.

Bostonfan
12-19-2009, 06:59 AM
Anything new?? Mike is still calling for a winter storm. Said last night that we could see a ground blizzard here in OKC. Is this just another case of saying stuff for ratings?

Thunder
12-19-2009, 07:08 AM
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/1157/7day.jpg

The only thing that will -censored- this up is the dry slot.

rod4soonrs
12-19-2009, 07:25 AM
Morgan never learns his lesson, he always cries wolf, then backs up when it doesn't happen.

from channel 5 blog:

No chance for a White Christmas in Oklahoma City this year

amazing the difference in thinking.

venture
12-19-2009, 08:34 AM
Anything new?? Mike is still calling for a winter storm. Said last night that we could see a ground blizzard here in OKC. Is this just another case of saying stuff for ratings?

For now yes. There is very little agreement in the models except for the fact there will be a strong storm system somewhere in the middle of the country. Canadian GEM model keeps all but Northern OK dry, ECMWF takes the system farther south, and GFS did get a bit more wet around these parts but warmer. The GFS is based on the 06Z run, the 12Z run isn't up on the web yet.

Morgan is wish- and ratings-casting now. You could just as easily say "Heavy Rain Possible" in place of his "Winter Storm Possible" and still have the same percentage chance as him in being right. This is just simply a case of a person who has thrown the science away and he is just there to be a "shock jock" on air.

Personally I love winter storms and would welcome a White Christmas, but I'm not going to jump into the fire just because I want something. Things will be better 2-3 days out in how this will all unfold, right now there is such low confidence in the guidance out there that it is best to just chill and wait. Yapping it up about some major winter storm with blizzard conditions is just a man who needs to be locked up and gagged until his ego become relevant again.

With that all said. There is an equal chance of mostly cloudy with some sun as there is of any chance of accumulating winter precip. Spin it how you will...Morgan seems to have his own agenda.

Thunder
12-19-2009, 08:42 AM
Mike Morgan is not Emily. We'll see what Mike will predict tonight.

venture
12-19-2009, 09:30 AM
Mike Morgan is not Emily. We'll see what Mike will predict tonight.

If you don't think the Chief doesn't dictate how the station forecasts, you don't understand the politics of TV weather. :)

PennyQuilts
12-19-2009, 09:37 AM
Venture, I appreciate what a good job you did on our travel weather. Thanks for letting us get out of Dodge back east before the storm hit. <vbg> My old neighbors on the east coast are expecting up to two feet of snow. They are pretty excited about it, actually.

Thunder
12-19-2009, 09:42 AM
If you don't think the Chief doesn't dictate how the station forecasts, you don't understand the politics of TV weather. :)

I know how they work. I just prefer to cling onto that hope.

If anyone notice, the keyword here is "Possible" and that word did not intend to say "Yes" to such event.

bandnerd
12-19-2009, 09:53 AM
Once, a long, long time ago when I still lived in southern OK and we got Dallas channels, a wise weatherman said something about predicting winter weather in this part of the country more than 8 hours out is not only impossible, but stupid to try. Not those exact words, but that was the gist.

Very wise, indeed.

I believe he was on their ABC channel 8. I was just a kid but I remember that very well. So did my parents. Anytime the locals were screaming ice/snowstorm, we all laughed. And when they predicted flurries, we hunkered down...the time that happened it snowed 9 inches (a rarity here in OKC but even more rare for us down by the river).

Moral of the story? No one, not even the computer models, has a clue what the h is going to happen. Would I like a white Christmas? Sure...especially if it means I can stay home instead of subjecting myself to family ;) Do I think it's going to happen? I'm not holding onto any hope.