Ready for the furnaces?

Models tonight show continued development of a very strong storm system coming in this weekend. Potential for heavy raid and strong storms on Sunday...and then the cold front pushes through. ;-)

Sunday deepening low will develop to the SW and push NE across the area. Heavy rain will develop along this. Temps Sunday look like mid 50s to near 60s in the metro and falling through the day. Temps will fall below 40 right now by Monday morning. They will remain between 32 and 38 through most of Monday into Tuesday morning. Temps moderate quickly back into the 50s for the rest of next week.

Upper low will be moving out of NE Oklahoma by Monday evening, but this will drag the coldest air over us just above the surface. Temps will roughly be around the mid 20s and lower as you go up. Looks like the atmosphere will stay fairly saturated as the upper low churns.

So surface precip. Again heavy rain in areas along I-44 from Lawton to MO. Squall line of strong storms may develop and race east in the late afternoon. Wrap around moisture will develop in the panhandle and western Oklahoma, with a dry slot in between. Some pockets of heavier precip up to a half inch of total liquid will be possible west of I-35. These areas will dry out quickly as the low pulls to the NE and dry slotting takes full effect.

However, as it looks like right now, there is a very possible risk that anywhere from I-35 (border to border) will see the first bit of white stuff of the season. Group temps are well into the upper 50s still and low 60s in southern OK, so nothing will stick unless it is extremely heavy. However, maybe a little something to get the holiday mood going. We'll see if things continue down this path as the weekend approaches.

ahhh, knew it couldn't last forever but I've been loving this warm November weather. Brrrrrrrr, not looking forward to the cold at All!

The NWS has a 50% chance of t-storms in the forecast for saturday night. I'm really hoping that the rain holds off til Sunday so I can attend the game this weekend without all the extra baggage (poncho, boots, change of clothes) whats your thoughts on saturday night V?

Seems like the models are slowing down a bit with each run. I think Saturday night be OK (at least for game time)

Yeah Saturday is starting to look better with the evening run. Here is the quick run day.

Saturday - mostly dry. Temps low 70s.

Sunday - Light rain developing early, with rain and storms in the afternoon. Most storms look like they'll be in eastern OK. Temps in the 60s falling to the upper 40s by evening.

Monday - Upper low hangs around light to moderate precip develops under it. Some parts of OK may get well over a half inch of rain on Monday. Temps start out below 40 in the Western half of OK, below 35 in the NW quarter. Temps will continue to fall into the 30s for the western 2/3rds of the start by evening.

Tuesday - Low's wrap around still hanging onto Central OK - starts to move out early Weds. Lows steady in the low to mid 30s, and don't move most of the day.

Wednesday - Some drizzle still around northern 2/3rds of OK. Models get really aggresive with cold air going south. Widespread 30s by Weds morning. Temps moderate into the 40s/50s except for NW OK.

Other notes. Upper air temps will be below freezing just above the surface and all the way up starting Sunday. The setup really screams a very cold rain event to a rain/snow mix. I would not be shocked to see snow in NW Oklahoma, and not even in Central OK. Will anything be the amount to stick? Probably not thanks to ground temps...but if precip amounts are heavy enough NW and the precip stays frozen - maybe a couple inches.

Tomorrow evening will start getting some other models in on the act to see what will happen. Right now, don't be shocked to see the Rain/Snow line moved farther towards the Metro than it is now.

Freeze Warning for this Thanksgiving morning until 9 am for Oklahoma County. Unlike the one yesterday, this one may mean business since it's already closer to freezing.