This is going to be a general thread for October, unless we see a ton of severe weather start stacking up - this should be good enough.

NWS Norman, Oklahoma - Enhanced Weather Page (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php)

Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/)

http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/data/nexrad/Oklahoma.gif

We might have some rotations later on Thursday.

Preface to this. We are still several days out, but will start discussing this. Historically, we normally always have a secondary severe weather season as we transition into Winter. We've had several large outbreaks in October, one of the largest tornado outbreaks occurred in 1998, and can get some really interesting setups when wintry and liquid precip types start mixing. With that said, here are the thoughts coming up...

October 1st

Right now looks like any severe weather this day will be restricted well east and south of the area. There will be some rain and storms around from mid day through the evening, but instabilities aren't showing any signs of being too out of control right now. The biggest story on this day will likely be the strong shot of cold air coming in behind the front, with temps falling into the 50s in the afternoon and strong NNW winds.

Main Risk: Damaging Wind
Other Risks: Hail

October 3rd
Strong surface low develops in the Oklahoma Panhandle where CO & KS both meet and touch OK. Moisture from the Gulf returns and instability will increase over the western half of the state. Temps rebound fast from the previous strong cold front, getting back into the 70s across most of the state. Most development will be in Kansas or Northern Oklahoma. It appears that the area of strongest instability will have some isolated or scattered development, even though models aren't developing any precip right now. There will be a dryline that sets up in the TX panhandle that should be the focus of that activity.

Main Risk: Damaging Wind, Large Hail
Other Risks: Very slight chance of a tornado or two.

October 4th
Surface low is less defined here, so may need to wait for later runs to determine how next Sunday will evolve. Temps continue to rise will into the upper 70s and 90s across most of the state. Dryline feature will setup in Western OK from Waynoka to Clinton to Altus. Deep moisture will be present ahead of this feature. Also strong front will be plowing down from Kansas and will be through NW Oklahoma by late afternoon. Concerns are around existing precrip from Saturday on how they'll come into play here - and any outflow boundaries from those. Greatest risk area appears be NE, NC and Central Oklahoma. We'll see how things evolve as we get closer, but could be an interesting day into evening. As the front passes Sunday night into Monday morning, winds will be very strong out of the N or NW and temps will fall into the low 50s.

I'm not sure I've ever said this before, but thank you for these threads and posts of yours. It's clear you have a passion and thanks for sharing it with us.

Thanks for the feedback Mike, always welcome to hear it.

Thursday is obviously getting the main focus right now. Not a lot of variety to go off of model wise since it is just outside the time frame of the other short term models. Timing may also be off some as the primary model used is speeding things up quite a bit...something it is known for.

Thursday - Oct 1

Surface low will pull out into Central Plains, with a secondary low drop down into KS but weaken as it does. Thursday morning cold front will stretch from Central NE through north central KS to SW KS. Dryline will start to establish itself from far NW Oklahoma through the TX Panhandle. By mid Afternoon, the cold front (in this model run) will be pushing through NC Oklahoma into Central sections and SW Oklahoma. The dryline will be just ahead of this but quickly getting over taken by the front. By early evening, the front is in SE Oklahoma already - which may be too fast. There will be some instability ahead of the front, and really if it takes this faster speed - the main severe risk will be WELL east of the area. Right now models do not forecast much if any precip west of I-35. There is some development in NC Oklahoma along the cold front early in the afternoon spreading down as it moves southeast. This could be a setup where we see initiation east of the OKC metro like we do in early spring events. As the front moves out, temps will fall into the 60s with some areas getting into the low 70s where the sun comes back out (western OK). Temps at night will drop in the mid 40s, as it is projected right now which might be too low if this system doesn't push through as fast.

No change to the risks right now until we get closer.

Time frame is now with in a couple models that I feel are usually pretty reliable, so going to update this.

Thursday - Oct 1

Models coming together on agreement with timing. Front/Dryline will be racing east during the earlier part of the day. Looks like by noon-2pm the front will be either right on top of the I-35 corridor or just to the west. Moisture content ahead of the front will be pretty good with some decent instabilities. Setup seems to really point to a squall line event that will setup very quickly once initiation starts. Models leave most of the heavy precip well east and south of OKC. It does seem the front may slow a bit and only be from a Tulsa to Shawnee to Ardmore line by 6-7PM. Heavy rain, strong-severe storms will be east of that line at the time. Front will pick up a bit and be out of Oklahoma, except for extreme SE parts, by Midnight-1AM.

Right now, definitely not an end of the world scenario at all. Rain, wind, and maybe some hail. I wouldn't rule out a quick spin up - but that is not going to be the main hazard with this. Think early spring (March) type event here.

Extended

Friday...will be dry with highs in the 60-70 range.

Saturday...slight risk of a storm/shower in south central OK, otherwise dry and cool. Temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday...Warm front will move north through the state starting very early Sunday morning. Storms/Showers will increase and move north through out the state for most of the day - though scattered. Atmosphere could moderately unstable during this which will pose the risk for severe weather. Temps quickly rise into 80s early and will cool back to the 70s with the rain cooled air.

Monday 10/5...System gets better organized in Kansas and the warm front will change to a cold front and start moving south. Low will move out of CO into KS through the day. Deep gulf moisture will continue to pump into the area over this time. Front enters NW Oklahoma very late in the day. Models indicate a complex of storms development over SW Oklahoma and moving NE through OKC into NE OK and into AR. Atmosphere will be somewhat unstable and additional severe weather could be possible.

Tuesday 10/6-Thurs 10/8...Front drops down and enters central OK around morning rush. Very strong N/NE winds will be behind the front as it plows deep into Texas by Wednesday. Temps will be around 70 early and fall into the mid 50s after late afternoon/evening. Additional rain is likely to develop behind the front as it passes. Precip amounts are pretty high over the end of this period, but I think they are too exaggerated right now, but the potential could be there for some rain. Weds temps will range in the mid 50s to low 60s. Thursday is temps starting around 60 falling into the low 50s to the upper 40s later in the day. All in all it should be a relatively cool and dry period coming up at the end of next week as the High Pressure settles in and dries things out.

Key point in all this...forecast confidence falls as you go out farther. So near term next few days is pretty good...but going into next week it is pretty low right now. Needless to say, we are getting into that time of the year to expect these strong systems to come through with storms, and colder weather behind and eventually that will bring snow.

It appears that the NWS shifted the Greatest Risk area a bit more to the west, much more west from the I-35 line. The cold front may not move that fast as once predicted earlier and the dryline may be able to keep up with the cold front. Venture?

Do you mean east Thunder? OKC will be lucky to get anything out of this now. Almost looks like Tulsa to the east now...

As long as it atays away from Journey concert tonight I'm good!

I too appreciate all the weather information!! Thanks Venture and all of the other weather buffs!

It appears that the NWS shifted the Greatest Risk area a bit more to the west, much more west from the I-35 line. The cold front may not move that fast as once predicted earlier and the dryline may be able to keep up with the cold front. Venture?

Not exactly sure where you saw that, but it wasn't the weather service. They have everything well east. Morning models are all in agreement with the faster solution that the GFS has been kicking out the last few days. New Day 2 outlook will be out in a couple hours.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU/ERN SRN PLNS EWD INTO THE MID-MS RVR VLY/MID-SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WRN STATES MID-LVL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE PLNS AND
CLOSE INTO A LOW OVER THE CORN BELT BY THU EVE. A 70-90 KT H5 JET
WILL EVOLVE FROM THE GRT BASIN INTO THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS DURING THE
PD. IN THE LWR-LVLS...A LOW OVER THE MID-MO RVR VLY WILL DEEPEN
OVER NWRN IA/SWRN MN THU AFTN/NIGHT. A STRONG CDFNT TRAILING THIS
LOW WILL SWEEP ESE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE OZARKS REGION
DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LWR OH RVR VLY...MID-SOUTH
AND CNTRL TX BY THE END OF THE PD. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR PSBL SVR TSTMS THU AFTN/NIGHT.

...LWR MO/MID-MS RVR VLYS SWD TO THE WRN GULF CSTL AREA...
STRONG LOW/MID-LVL THETA-E ADVECTION COURTESY OF A 40-50 KT SSWLY
LLJ WILL LIKELY DRIVE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION EARLY THU MORNING FROM SWRN MN SWD INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE ENE DURING THE AFTN INTO THE
UPR MS VLY AND MIDWEST.

ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS FARTHER W FOR SVR POTENTIAL AFT 18Z.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY DRIVE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS EAST OF THE CDFNT...ESP FROM THE OZARKS NWD.
THIS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS IA AND NRN MO WITH STRONGER
INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL/SRN MO SWWD INTO ERN OK...AR AND NERN TX. BY
MID-AFTN...MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN SRN IA TO
2000 J/KG OVER ERN OK...WRN AR AND NERN TX.

SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE CDFNT EARLY IN THE AFTN FROM SRN IA INTO NRN MO. A SUBSEQUENT
BACKBUILDING/AND OR NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SW INTO THE WRN
OZARK PLATEAU AND CNTRL OK 18-21Z AS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGER
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADS EWD. WHILE STORMS ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE ISOLD HAIL/DMGG WINDS...HIGHEST SVR
POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE FROM SRN MO SWWD INTO AR...ERN OK AND NERN TX.
HERE...MORE ROBUST SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND DECENT MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES...BUT ANTICIPATED
SPEED OF FRONT...THE TEMPORAL BACKING OF THE MID-LVL FLOW AND
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A COMPLEX LINEAR
MCS AS STORMS MATURE. DMGG WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT WITH
TIME DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS MAIN PORTIONS OF THE
70-90 KT WLY MID-LVL JET PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE FRONT.

SVR THREATS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL
BECOME LESS WITH EWD EXTENT. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS ERN TX INTO THE MS DELTA REGION. BUT...SURGING NATURE TO THE
CDFNT AND THE FACT THAT STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE NE TOWARD THE LWR OH VLY ARGUE THAT STORMS ALONG WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME UNDERCUT AND LIMIT SVR THREATS TO
ISOLD HAIL AND/OR DMGG WIND GUSTS.

Looks like everything is sticking to the forecast as outlined the last 4 days with no major surprises.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN/N-CENTRAL TX AND
SWRN LA TO AR/MO OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS CONUS THROUGH
PERIOD. CYCLONE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER SRN QUE IS FCST TO MOVE
SLOWLY IN CYCLONICALLY CURVING LOOP -- MAINLY N OF ST LAWRENCE
RIVER. MEANWHILE STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW ANALYZED OVER
CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES STATES -- IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW BY
EARLY THIS PERIOD OVER NEB...MOVING EWD TO IA BY 2/12Z.

ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ELONGATED ALONG ARCHING COLD FRONT
OVER NWRN KS AND S-CENTRAL NEB -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD INVOF KS/NEB
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN MOVE/REDEVELOP UNDER CYCLONE
ALOFT...OVER NRN IA/SRN MN. AS THIS OCCURS...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SEWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING ERN MO...N-CENTRAL AR...SERN
OK...AND W-CENTRAL TX BY ABOUT 2/00Z. FRONT THEN SHOULD PROCEED
EWD/SEWD TO S-CENTRAL TX...W-CENTRAL/SWRN LA...CENTRAL MS...AND WRN
KY BY END OF PERIOD...AS PARENT CYCLONE OCCLUDES. OLDER FRONTAL
ZONE -- TRAILING FROM NWRN ATLANTIC AND DEMARCATING NRN EDGE OF
MOIST/RETURN-FLOW AIR -- IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS
ARKLATEX AND WRN GULF COASTAL REGION THROUGH PERIOD...BUT WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT FROM N-S ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.

...PORTIONS SERN/N-CENTRAL TX AND SWRN LA TO AR/MO OZARKS...
EARLY-PERIOD TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS MAY BE ONGOING OVER
PORTIONS MO/IA...ROOTED IN LAYER OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC. MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL
BE MRGL SVR HAIL...CARRYING OVER THREAT FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD. AS
LLJ WEAKENS THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...SO SHOULD THIS
CONVECTION...CROSSING MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.

MAIN SVR CONCERN IS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION INVOF SFC
COLD FRONT...WHERE ROBUST LINE OF TSTMS PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND
MOSTLY LOW-END SVR HAIL IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON....THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA. SOME
INITIATION-TIMING UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST...COMPELLING LOOSER W-E
GRADIENT OF PROBABILITIES THAN ACTUAL SVR POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO
EVOLVE ACROSS SWRN MO...ERN OK AND N TX. ONCE TSTMS DO
FORM...EXPECT RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH NEWD AND SWWD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. CONVECTIVE MODE MAY TRANSITION THROUGH BRIEF MIX OF
MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS TO LINEAR...RESULTING IN LONG SQUALL LINE
AFTER DARK FROM SERN OZARKS REGION AT LEAST TO UPPER TX COASTAL
PLAIN. THIS LINE SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS LOWER MS VALLEY
THEREAFTER...THREAT DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AFTER DARK AS
1. FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DIABATICALLY...REDUCING AVAILABLE
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...AND
2. CONVECTIVE BAND OUTRUNS HIGHEST THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
FROM N-S AND INGESTS MORE STABLE AND INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES.

STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN
PORTION OF OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER OZARKS IN ZONE WHERE
BUOYANT ZONE WILL BE NARROWING AND DIMINISHING IN MAGNITUDE...AS
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES RETURN-FLOW BOUNDARY. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S F
OVER SRN MO...AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK...AR AND
NRN/ERN TX -- WILL COMBINE WITH DIABATIC HEATING TO SUPPORT MLCAPES
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG NEAR MO RIVER TO AROUND 3000 J/KG
OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX.

SWLY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR OVER MUCH OF AREA...WITH SIGNIFICANT COMPONENT OF MEAN FLOW
VECTOR BEING PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE. FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ENLARGED
ACROSS OZARKS REGION DUE TO COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND SLGT VEERING WITH HEIGHT...HOWEVER CONCERNS
OVER CONVECTIVE MODE AND EXTENT OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PRECLUDE
MORE THAN MRGL TORNADO PROBABILITIES ATTM.

Do you mean east Thunder? OKC will be lucky to get anything out of this now. Almost looks like Tulsa to the east now...


Not exactly sure where you saw that, but it wasn't the weather service. They have everything well east. Morning models are all in agreement with the faster solution that the GFS has been kicking out the last few days. New Day 2 outlook will be out in a couple hours.

I did see it on the NWS site. They shifted the greatest risk area a bit more back west, then now they changed their mind and moved it back to east.

You were looking at an outdated graphic that showed their thinking before they started adjusting their forecast to compensate for the faster model solution that I was mentioning. I remember which one you were looking at. Sometimes they don't get the old graphics off the page in time.

Cold front is blasting through the metro area now. Temps are around 80 with a moderately unstable atmosphere right now ahead of the front. If a storm could form along the front, it has the right conditions to let it go severe...but no indications of that happening right now.

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.WIND.grad.png

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s5/sbcp.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s5/scp.gif

Cold front is blasting through the metro area now.

I was just watching that on radar. It's right along I-44 now and busting se. I kinda thought today was going to be a non-event for central Oklahoma. As fast as the front is moving it looks like anything would be in the far eastern part of the state.

Venture, Think we'll get much rain from that area of disturbed weather off Baja?

Storms are developing rapidly now along the front from Tulsa to the SW. Front is just about out of the metro area totally.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2052.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX...ERN OK...NWRN AR...SWRN/CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011744Z - 011915Z

1730Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE CDFNT FROM LAWRENCE KS-KTUL-DUNCAN
OK-SWEETWATER TX LINE. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO
MOISTEN AND WITH BINOVC...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MID-70S TO LWR 80S. RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM KFSM...KOKC AND
KTUL SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WAS WEAKENING...OWING TO INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT/MOISTENING AND LLVL HEATING. EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTN ALONG N END OF THE LLVL THERMAL AXIS NEAR
THE KS/MO/OK/AR BORDERS...THEN BACKBUILD SWWD WITH TIME. ACTIVITY
WILL THEN SPREAD ENE INTO SWRN/CNTRL MO...NWRN AR AND PERHAPS NERN
TX LATER THIS AFTN.

VEERING OF THE LLVL WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND APPROACH OF A
NEARLY PARALLEL 50-60 KT WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF A QLSC AND/OR MULTIPLE LINEAR SEGMENTS. EMBEDDED
BOWS/LEWPS WILL RESULT IN RISKS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST SVR PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FROM
EXTREME SWRN MO INTO ECNTRL OK AND NWRN AR THROUGH LATE AFTN.

I was just watching that on radar. It's right along I-44 now and busting se. I kinda thought today was going to be a non-event for central Oklahoma. As fast as the front is moving it looks like anything would be in the far eastern part of the state.

Venture, Think we'll get much rain from that area of disturbed weather off Baja?

There will be some scattered rain around. GFS is showing some heavier rain middle of next week as a strong low goes through the Great Lakes (some chance for their first snow up there).

Severe Weather is expected to return Monday. Will go into more detail when I have a bit more time.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A LEE LOW OVER ERN CO IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF CYCLOGENESIS EVOLVES OVER THE MID MO VALLEY. WITH TIME...THIS
NRN LOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE...SHIFTING ENEWD
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT DRIVES SEWD
ACROSS KS/OK INTO MO/AR/N TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS...
NWD RETURN OF A HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER INTO N TX/SRN OK IS
FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS A
LINGERING SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS TX TO SHIFT NWD WITH TIME.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF ERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING/MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE FROM WRN OK SWD. THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
N OF THIS REGION...SUBTLE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WSWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS. WHILE
CONVECTION FROM NRN OK NWD SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF N TX AND POSSIBLY INTO
SWRN OK.

WITH 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION
ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS
-- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. DURING THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A LINEAR CONFIGURATION INVOF THE SEWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT...WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
WRN AR/NERN AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/03/2009

Venture....whats your thoughts on this cold air I keep hearing about in the 7-10 day period? Thoughts from the NWS:

"THE REAL ANCHOR IN THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE AN
UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP UPSTREAM - INITIALLY OFF THE W COAST. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS N TOWARD NW CANADA... THE INEVITABLE BUILDUP OF
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR WILL COMMENCE. HENCE THE 1050+ HIGH THAT THE
ECMWF PLACES OVER NW CANADA BY FRIDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
THIS AIR WILL ROLL SE/S INTO THE S PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...
AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF... OR IF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
DEAMPLIFY BY THEN AND WE GET ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR...
LIKE THE 00Z GFS."

Get the arks ready. First some severe weather business next couple of days.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED OCT 07 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS/NORTHWEST
MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE EAST...A SWIFT MOVING UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
FL AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHEAST STATES. PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD OFF MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WEST-SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FRONT
STALLS/ELONGATES GENERALLY EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO
TX.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF TX TO OK/LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT...
A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET /40-50 KT/ ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ONSET OF LATE PERIOD HEIGHT FALLS...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD TRANSPORT OF A MOIST/UNSTABLE
ELEVATED AIRMASS ATOP A COOL/STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER LATE TONIGHT.
ACCORDINGLY...00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE/MAJORITY OF 21Z SREF
MEMBERS IMPLY AN INCREASE OF ELEVATED TSTMS TOWARD/AFTER 06Z FROM
PORTIONS OF WEST TX/OK TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS. WITH AN
UNSTABLE SOURCE REGION AIRMASS INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
TX...WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY /500-1500 J PER KG/ AND
AMPLE SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER IS SUGGESTIVE OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF OK INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHWEST AR...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALBERTA WILL PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. AHEAD OF THESE UPPER FEATURES...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD WITH
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MO BY
09/00Z. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS FROM OK/AR/MO AND HELP TO
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
TX/OK IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN
OK AND TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT INTO MO /PER GFS SOLUTION/. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INVOLVE
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD BE LIMITED GREATLY IF THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH SPREADS NORTHWARD FASTER
THAN FORECAST AND OVERSPREADS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BEFORE MUCH
DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR.


NAM Precip Forecast:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_084s.gif

GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_060s.gif

WRF 6 Hour Period Images Starting Thursday Morning

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/WRF/SP/wrfSP_0_prec_36.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/WRF/SP/wrfSP_0_prec_42.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/WRF/SP/wrfSP_0_prec_48.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/WRF/SP/wrfSP_0_prec_54.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/WRF/SP/wrfSP_0_prec_60.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/WRF/SP/wrfSP_0_prec_66.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/WRF/SP/wrfSP_0_prec_72.gif

I hope its not for Wednesday! Last I checked, dry weather, I better move quick!

Flood watch
national weather service norman ok
1134 am cdt wed oct 7 2009

...thunderstorms with heavy rain thursday and thursday night...

.a tropical warm front in south texas will lift toward the red
river during the day thursday. Rich gulf moisture will overspread
the region north of the front...and an advancing upper level
trough will release that moisture in the form of thunderstorms
over northern oklahoma. Storms are expected to train from west to
east...with increasingly heavy rainfall. Later in the day...the
upper level trough will swing out across texas and into southern
and central oklahoma...resulting in new thunderstorm development.
These storms will become particularly widespread thursday
evening...when a strong cold front arrives to focus the activity.

Although the ground is not particularly close to saturation prior
to this rain event...it is likely that some of the thunderstorms
will produce exceptionally heavy rainfall. With several storms
moving over a given area...flooding will be possible within the
watch area.

Oklahoma-lincoln-mcclain-cleveland-pottawatomie-seminole-hughes-
stephens-garvin-murray-pontotoc-coal-jefferson-carter-johnston-
atoka-love-marshall-bryan-clay-
including the cities of...oklahoma city...chandler...purcell...
Norman...moore...shawnee...seminole...holdenville. ..duncan...
Pauls valley...sulphur...ada...coalgate...waurika...ardm ore...
Tishomingo...atoka...marietta...madill...durant... henrietta
1134 am cdt wed oct 7 2009

...flash flood watch in effect from thursday afternoon through
friday morning...

The national weather service in norman has issued a

* flash flood watch for portions of oklahoma and northern
texas...including the following areas...in oklahoma...atoka...
Bryan...carter...cleveland...coal...garvin...hughe s...
Jefferson...johnston...lincoln...love...marshall.. .mcclain...
Murray...oklahoma...pontotoc...pottawatomie...semi nole and
stephens. In northern texas...clay.

* from thursday afternoon through friday morning

* widespread thunderstorms...some with very heavy rain

* thunderstorms will increase thursday afternoon...becoming
widespread by the evening. A cold front will work with rich gulf
moisture to produce renewed thunderstorm development well into
thursday night. Prolonged heavy rain will produce accumulations
locally in excess of 3 inches. Given the intense rain rates that
are expected...isolated totals over 5 inches are possible...
Especially in southeast oklahoma. The rain will gradually end
late thursday night...as cool and dry air builds in from the
north.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU AFT AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A MERGER OF SPLIT POLAR STREAMS WILL OCCUR
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ELONGATED DIGGING
NORTHERN BRANCH LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND
NORTHWEST OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
INTENSIFYING...BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC HIGH LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CANADIAN TROUGH...AN INCREASINGLY
SHEARED SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF
THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG
THE GUIDANCE...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
LATTER FEATURE WILL SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS LIKELY
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONG RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION /WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE
UPPER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES/...ON A 40-50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET. ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS.

...SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS...
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE HIGH LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE BAND WITHIN AN
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
FRONT BY 12Z THURSDAY...FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI. ACTIVITY
MAY EXTEND WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ...TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND PROBABLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION.

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS CONVECTION...IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...DAYTIME HEATING IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POSSIBLE
PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURNING
MOISTURE. BUT...THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 70S.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO INITIATE VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL. IN THE
PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
MEAN FLOW...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AT LEAST
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED... BUT DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY PERSIST NEAR/JUST AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE
HODOGRAPHS NEAR/BELOW THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
CLOCKWISE CURVATURE...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES IN
ISOLATED CELLS...AND PERHAPS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
WANES ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU OVERNIGHT.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

Main Threats...hail & wind.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR OH VLY TO
CNTRL/SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE THEN
MERGE WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WLYS BEFORE EJECTING ENE
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS THURSDAY NIGHT. A MUCH WEAKER LEAD
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL FROM THE SRN HIGH PLNS TO THE LWR OH
VLY BY THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THE SFC...A WRMFNT SITUATED FROM CNTRL TX TO THE CNTRL GULF CST
WILL REDEVELOP NWD INTO PARTS OF OK...THE OZARK PLATEAU AND THE LWR
OH VLY THURSDAY AFTN. A WEAK LOW...TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LEAD
WAVE...WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN MO INTO THE LWR OH VLY
THURSDAY AFTN/EVE. BEHIND THIS WAVE...A CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL SETTLE SEWD...REACHING THE OH VLY SWWD INTO CNTRL
TX BY 12Z FRIDAY.

...LWR OH VLY TO SWRN TX...
ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING FROM CNTRL MO SWWD INTO NWRN
OK AND THE TX PNHDL. ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY A 50-55 KT SSWLY
LLJ...AUGMENTED BY A WEAK MID-LVL WAVE AND ENTRANCE REGION OF A 160
KT H25 JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MIDWEST
DURING THE DAY. RAPID RECOVERY OF LLVL MOISTURE ALONG/S OF THE
BANDED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND
STRONG/SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY.
FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL LLVL SHEAR INVOF THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW FROM PARTS OF SRN MO ENE INTO SRN IND LATE THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE. HERE...ISOLD TORNADOES AND/OR DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS.

FARTHER SW...THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SET-UPS CONSISTING OF VERY HIGH
PWATS...NEARLY PARALLEL MEAN 0-6KM SHEAR WITH RESPECT TO SW-NE
ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONES...AND APCH OF THE POSITIVE-TILTED SWRN
UPR WAVE SUGGEST A FAIRLY PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD ZONE OF TSTMS
FROM NWRN AR SWWD INTO SWRN TX. RATHER SHORT WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE
MORNING WAVE AND APCH OF THE PARENT UPR WAVE AND ASSOCD JETLETS WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN MORNING CONVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE WARM SECTOR TO EXPAND N AND NW THROUGH THE AFTN.

OVERALL WEAK CINH EXPECTED WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS
FROM NCNTRL/CNTRL OK SWWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION AS EARLY
AS LATE MORNING WITH SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF STORMS DEVELOPING WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. SWLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND
OF TSTMS. EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
TRANSITIONS INTO SMALL-SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS AS THE CELLS TRANSLATE
ENE. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PRIMARY SVR
THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/08/2009

Atmosphere is starting to really get unstable as the warm front continues to move north. Some areas of sun are helping this along and risk of severe weather will keep going up as long as it is out. Atmosphere is also totally saturated with a ton of moisture that will give us the heavy rain today and tonight.

http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma.gif

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s7/sbcp.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s7/pwtr.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s7/scp.gif

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s7/stpc.gif

OFB has now blasted through most of the metro with a temperature drop of nearly 20 degrees in an hour. Looks like the metro will be spared most of the severe weather, but sc OK might get some big storms, A few look like they are trying to go up near Altus.

BTW Its 41 in the panhandle with a north wind of 34mph while its 87 in the se part of the state. Gotta love OK.

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

Starting to see some stronger storms develop in the Metro and to the SW. Hail will be the main risk.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2082.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081942Z - 082045Z

CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY BOTH ALONG AND PRIMARILY
JUST BEHIND SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS OK...EXTENDING INTO NWRN TX.
18Z SOUNDING FROM OUN APPEARS TO HAVE PROPERLY SAMPLED PRE-FRONTAL
AIR MASS WITH SLIGHT CAPPING ALL BUT REMOVED WITHIN THE 850-700MB
LAYER. EVEN SO...FRONTAL ASCENT IS NECESSARY FOR FREE CONVECTION
AND THIS IS READILY OCCURRING DUE TO STRONG BUT VEERED LLJ. LATEST
THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND EVOLVE INTO
A WELL ORGANIZED FRONTAL MCS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NATURE AND THE PROPENSITY FOR UNDERCUTTING...IT
APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 10/08/2009

Good thing I preview my posts before posting. We almost had twins. lol

Storm coming up near Ft. Cobb towards the metro looks pretty impressive, I'm starting to wish I'd gotten my plants in the garage this morning. I'd planned on waiting til this evening or tomorrow. Oh well.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0758_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
TULSA OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. ACTIVITY MAY
EVOLVE AS SUPERCELLS...WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE
LINES OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. INITIAL
ACTIVITY BEHIND LEADING WIND SHIFT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH STORMS ROOTING INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.

I'm happy it held off long enough to basically finish the moving from one apt to the other. I just have a few things left, but the weather wouldn't impact that. As soon I finished the major parts, it started raining. About 30 minutes ago, I was outside when I heard huge thundering and the funny thing it was downpouring and as soon it thundered so loudly, the rain slowed down a bit then picked up. lol

Check this out! It's new! From KFOR!

Live Oklahoma Radar - 4 Warn Storm Tracker from KFOR-TV-DT NewsChannel 4 Oklahoma - KFOR (http://www.kfor.com/weather/livestormtracker/)

First, there will be a commercial, then it will show a streaming radar from the station. On the video player, you can click on Chat and interact with others viewing the radar. At this time, someone going by StormTracker seem to believe a tornado outbreak is possible. lol

That guy StormTracker should be banned for being a moron. lol

That guy StormTracker should be banned for being a moron. lol

Yeah, he should be. He could be saying "Tornado Warning is now in effect for Oklahoma county. A very large tornado was spotted on the ground in South OKC near ________ and _________. This is a dangerous tornado. Seek cover now!"

:omg:

I wonder who will be tempted to make a MikeMorgan username to spark a panic.

The storm just south of Lawton is begining to look like a wind threat....if it keeps together it might head toward Norman in about an hour. Looks like very heavy "tropical" downpours for all Of OkC for about the nect 2 hrs. Just in time for rush hour. Everyone be safe out there....the low lying areas could flood quickly!!!

I'm looking forward to watching the NU @ Mizzou football game this evening. When I checked about noon they had already had 5 inches of rain in Columbia today with more very heavy rain headed that way. Go Huskers!!!

EDIT: Storm now east of Lawton is severe warned.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
413 pm cdt thu oct 8 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern grady county in central oklahoma...
Mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern garvin county in southern oklahoma...
Northeastern stephens county in southern oklahoma...

* until 500 pm cdt

* at 412 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 3 miles west of bray...moving northeast at 55 mph.
Another strong to severe storm was located near ninnekah and was
moving northeast at 50 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

Update from OUN to show the surface boundaries.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Regional_Weather.jpg?timestamp=1255036185

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0759_radar.gif


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 440 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 758...

DISCUSSION...SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH 40-50 KT LLJ. COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG AND
LOW LCL/S ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF SLOWLY
SEWD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

New Tornado Watch mainly south.

SPC AWW 082138
WW 759 TORNADO OK TX 082140Z - 090500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55WNW ABI/ABILENE TX/ - 30NNE RKR/POTEAU OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /38WNW ABI - 8WNW FSM/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
COAL COTTON GARVIN
HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MARSHALL MCINTOSH
MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
STEPHENS

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
449 pm cdt thu oct 8 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Eastern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Pottawatomie county in central oklahoma...
Western seminole county in east central oklahoma...

* until 530 pm cdt

* at 449 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from eastern norman to 7 miles
southwest of etowah to 5 miles southwest of rosedale...moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include asher...bethel acres...bowlegs...
Brooksville...centerview...dale...earlsboro...east ern norman...
Etowah...harjo...johnson...lake thunderbird...little...macomb...
Maud...pink...rosedale...seminole...shawnee...sout heastern oklahoma
city...st. Louis...stella...tecumseh...tribbey...trousdale and
wanette.

Here comes the cold air...

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png?1255208084

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRAIN WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FOR THIS FCST IS EVIDENT IN 12Z RAOB ANALYSES AND MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF SRN TIP OF NV. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO CLOSED CYCLONE COVERING MUCH OF NM...SRN CO AND ERN AZ
BY 21/12Z. LOW THEN SHOULD PIVOT NEWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DAY-2...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BUT MAINTAINING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER WRN PORTIONS KS/OK/TX BY END OF PERIOD. BY
THAT TIME...THIS FEATURE WILL PHASE AT LEAST PARTIALLY WITH BOTH
REMAINS OF EAST-PACIFIC TS RICK AND WEAKER/NRN-STREAM TROUGH OVER
UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN TROUGHING FROM LS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS
TO W-CENTRAL MEX. SPECTRAL MODEL YIELDS SLOW/OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO WRF AND MOST SREF MEMBERS...WITH SREF
CONSENSUS BEING CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL WRF AND PREFERRED FOR THIS
FCST.

AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM WRN IA
SWD THROUGH WEAK LOW OVER SERN CO...THEN WWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL CO AND
NWWD TO W-CENTRAL CO. FRONT IS FCST TO INTENSIFY E OF ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT DAY-1 THEN PLUNGE SEWD ACROSS MOST OF ERN NM AND TX
PANHANDLE BY 22/00Z. BY 22/12Z...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD FORM INVOF
NRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH COLD FRONT
TRAILING ACROSS SRN WI...SERN IA...SERN OK...TO CENTRAL TX AND SRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY PERSIST
ALONG...AND MOVE EWD WITH...THAT SEGMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SRN
KS AND SWRN MO.

TWO AREAS OF MRGL/CONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL APPEAR ATTM...WITH LACK
OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY BEING LIMITING FACTOR FOR
GREATER UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SPATIAL OVERLAP OR BLENDING OF THESE REGIMES...HENCE A SINGLE/LARGE
5-PERCENT SWATH.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...OK...SRN KS...N TX...
ANALYZED 20/12Z 850 MB CHART INDICATES MOISTURE ABOVE SFC EMANATING
FROM CONFLUENCE OF BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND PACIFIC SOURCES -- LATTER
INCLUDING TS RICK. COMBINED MOISTURE SOURCE WILL FUEL ONGOING
CONVECTION AT START OF PERIOD...WITH MODIFIED GULF FETCH BECOMING
MORE DOMINANT EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE INVOF COLD FRONT MOVING EWD FROM TX PANHANDLE EARLY IN
PERIOD ACROSS OK AND SRN KS DURING DAYTIME AND EVENING. FCST
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FEATURE STG UPPER LEVEL WINDS...MEAN WIND
VECTOR ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...AND BACKING OF FLOW
WITH HEIGHT FROM ROUGHLY 850-700 MB. THIS INDICATES PREDOMINANTLY
LINEAR MODE. EARLY/MRGL HAIL AND GUST THREAT OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL TRANSITION TO EPISODIC POTENTIAL FOR STG TO ISOLATED SVR GUSTS
WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS AS SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD. PARCELS SHOULD
BECOME SFC-BASED OR VERY NEARLY SO FROM VICINITY KS/OK BORDER SWD
WITH WAA AND DIFFUSE DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...DESPITE INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MLCAPE MAY ATTAIN ONLY 100-500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD
OF FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
BY COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD/PRECIP COVER TO LIMIT DIABATIC SFC HEATING.

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1237 am cdt wed oct 21 2009

valid 211200z - 221200z

...no svr tstm areas forecast...

...synopsis...

Mid/upper-level low initially over nm will begin to lift newd into
the cntrl plains as strong vorticity maximum rotates around parent
circulation. Associated zone of concentrated height falls/dynamic
forcing for ascent will concurrently spread newd from the srn high
plains through ks...ok and n tx. At the surface...low pressure
initially over wrn tx will develop from wrn tx into ern ok by thu
morning. Trailing cold front will push ewd through wrn/cntrl parts
of ok/tx.

...wrn/nrn tx into ok...

Warm sector air mass will continue to modify through the
period...aided by 40-50+ kt sly llj...with dewpoints increasing
through the 50s into lower 60s. However...the combination of
widespread clouds and weak lapse rates will limit mlcape to less
than 500 j/kg.

Tstms are expected to be ongoing at the onset of the forecast period
over wrn tx within zone of deep ascent ahead of upper system. This
activity will likely increase in coverage and intensity today while
progressing ewd in advance of pacific front. Both nam and gfs
simulated water vapor imagery suggest that a midlevel dry slot may
develop newd through nwrn tx into parts of wrn/cntrl ok this
afternoon...potentially serving to enhance storm intensity given
breaks in low clouds. Strengthening...meridional deep-layer shear
oriented largely parallel to pacific front suggests that dominant
storm mode may trend toward linear.

Currently...it appears that the weak instability will limit a more
robust wind/hail threat. Therefore...only low severe probabilities
will be maintained.

I remember reading a post not too long ago (2-4 weeks) about how we should have nice fall colors because of the moderate temps and plentiful rainfall and had planned on quoting them so this post is going to be a little OT, Sorry

But they were right.....on the westside (council groves) it's the best it's been in years. Amazing how quickly they've changed this year too. Two weeks ago nothing, last weekend the Oaks started changing, and now they're at peak color. I'll try to get some pics in the next couple of days.

Sad part is the whole neighborhood is tinted in burnt orange....not my favorite color this year. LOL

LOL...it is nice to see some fall colors out there. That is one thing I missed from living back east. This time of the year was always so beautiful outside, then to come here with next to no trees (relatively speaking of course)...it was odd. Granted, it was also odd that there were green leaves well into November most years too. LOL

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG ZONAL NORTHERN PACIFIC JET WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SPEED
MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SLOWLY GROWING WAVE IS PROGGED TO
FLATTEN UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD DOWNSTREAM BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW...NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE U.S...APPEARS LIKELY TO
BEGIN TO SPLIT...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME...A
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATING THROUGH QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST OF MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN CANADIAN
SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE MISSISIPPI VALLEY APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
PENINSULA COASTAL AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING. BUT...A RAPID RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT COLD SURFACE RIDGING WILL
NOSE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...AS AN INITIAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE
DAY. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BE AS RAPID...AS
ANOTHER STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THIS LATTER FEATURE...DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN... INCLUDING LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

BEFORE UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
DESTABILIZATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INITIAL VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY
NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BEFORE MID-LEVEL COOLING
WEAKENS CAP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW.

IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-50+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB WIND FIELDS...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
INITIALLY...BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUPPORTS A GROWING CONVECTIVE
LINE/CLUSTER ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SURGES MORE RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...UNDERCUTTING THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE MOISTENING PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BUT...A RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT MAY LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS UNTIL VERY LATE
IN THE PERIOD...MORE LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

..KERR/SMITH.. 10/25/2009

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FOR N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252220Z - 260015Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WHICH
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A WW BY EARLY EVENING.

AS AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...NOW NOSING THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WILL BEGIN TO SURGE MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF A MUCH
STRONGER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE STILL DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE TENDENCY PROBABLY WILL BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
ABOVE...OR BE UNDERCUT BY...THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR BENEATH 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.

STORM INITIATION SEEMS MOST PROBABLE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
COLD FRONT AND A BROAD/DIFFUSE DRY LINE STRUCTURE...NEAR/NORTH AND
WEST OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH INTO THE ARDMORE OK AREA. NEAR SURFACE
PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE STILL CAPPED
ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT FURTHER MOISTURE INCREASES COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW COULD WEAKEN
INHIBITION AS EARLY AS 00-01Z. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
INITIALLY...BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING CONTRIBUTES TO A GROWING
CONVECTIVE LINE/CLUSTER SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS .

..KERR.. 10/25/2009

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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY WHERE DEEPENING OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS THE SCNTRL
U.S...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS OK/TX DAY4...THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY DAY5
WHERE FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO IL/IND ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AS INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
THIS REGION.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NWRN TX AND SWRN OK...

...TX/OK...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. STRONGEST
JET CORE WINDS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE SWRN U.S. TROUGH OVER NRN
MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS REGION INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE LATE. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NERN NM
EARLY BEFORE SFC LOW IS DISPLACED INTO SWRN KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LEADING EDGE OF MARITIME AIRMASS OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD
RETURN IN EARNEST BEGINNING AROUND 28/12Z...WITH 60+ SFC DEW POINTS
EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN TX BY 00Z. IT APPEARS A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE NOTED NEAR THE
LEE TROUGH...PRIOR TO FRONTAL MERGER...ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE TRANS PECOS REGION. THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY REMOVING EARLY INHIBITION...IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE DELAYED SUCH THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
TO DEVELOP. WHAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CONTINUED MOISTENING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTES TO AN EVER-INCREASING...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SHARPENING COLD
FRONT. WITH MID 60S DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SWRN OK
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT THERMAL ADJUSTMENT/BUOYANCY FOR
SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BETWEEN 03-06Z ACROSS
NWRN TX INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY
INTENSE WITH SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 70-75KT WITH STRONG
VEERING PROFILES AND 50KT+ FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT...IF SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT...COULD POSE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LATEST THINKING IS A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
EMERGE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLE...SWD INTO NWRN
TX BEFORE SPREADING EAST INTO WRN OK/NCNTRL TX BY SUNRISE. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY...A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX TO SRN MO...

...CNTRL TX...NEWD TO SRN MO...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD...THOUGH NOT AS A UNIFIED
LONG WAVE TROUGH BUT RATHER IN SEVERAL PIECES. ONE
SIGNIFICANT...AND LIKELY PRIMARY...UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
EJECT NEWD ACROSS CO INTO SD WITH SOME VARIANCE NOTED AMONG THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
EMERGE OVER FAR WEST TX LATE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE.
THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO INDUCE A WAVE ALONG SRN
PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE BI-MODAL STRUCTURE OF
THIS EJECTING SYSTEM THERE ARE SOME NUANCES THAT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE
TO ASCERTAIN THREE DAYS IN ADVANCE...NAMELY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES
FROM DAY2 ACTIVITY AND ULTIMATE STORM MODE. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
IS THE OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASE EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE SWATH OF 60+ SFC DEW
POINTS...70+ ACROSS PARTS OF TX/LA...WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR WHERE STRONGER H5 FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A
MARGINAL-MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONG...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP EITHER
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...OR PERHAPS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WIND
SHIFT...COULD PRODUCE SEVERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS EVEN
ISOLATED TORNADOES. NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY
MOISTURE RETURN NEEDED FOR SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.

..DARROW.. 10/27/2009

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-WEEK ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE VERY STRONG UPR JET THAT WILL
CARVE OUT A COLD UPR LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FEATURE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EJECTING ENE TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOWER-LEVELS...A FRONT THAT SETTLES INTO THE NRN GULF BASIN
IN WAKE OF THE CURRENT IMPULSE MIGRATING NEWD FROM THE MID-SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY N INTO PARTS OF NRN TX AND LWR MS VLY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER NERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING INTO SWRN KS BY
12Z THURSDAY. SRN PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY
A CDFNT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WRN TX WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING
OVER PARTS OF OK/CNTRL TX BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

...SRN PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN IN EARNEST WEDNESDAY
AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS SLY FLOW INCREASES DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE APCHG UPR LOW. SFC DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 60 DEG F WILL
BE SURGING INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NWRN TX BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO REDUCE THE RISK OF DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
POST-SUNSET TSTMS TO EVOLVE ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER SWD INTO THE
TRANSPECOS REGION AS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND
LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD.

FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND DESPITE
THE POST-DIURNAL CYCLE TIMING...INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. BACKING
LOW/MID-LVL WIND FIELDS WITH TIME AND INCREASING ASCENT WILL RESULT
IN AN EXPANDING SQUALL LINE FROM WRN/CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL TX BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WHILE SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION INTO MOSTLY DMGG
WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY WHERE
STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THE LONGEST WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX.

...UPR TX CST/E TX/WRN LA...
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS STRONG LLVL SLY FLOW COMMENCES IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE INTENSE UPR TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DEEPEN WITH TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MORE ROBUST
BUOYANCY/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEGIN TO SURGE TO THE CST AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS INCREASE. WHILE THE RISK OF SVR WEATHER WILL
ESCALATE JUST BEYOND THE DAY 2 PERIOD /ENDING 12Z THURSDAY/...ISOLD
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO EXHIBIT SOME ORGANIZATION AS EARLY AS 09-12Z
THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT LLVL TURNING WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO INVOF THE WRMFNT.

Severe Weather activity is likely the next 2 days. This is mainly going to be late evening Weds through Thursday event. Hail and damaging winds will be main risk, however there will be a tornado threat mainly in the western half of Oklahoma.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
DIVING SSEWD ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THIS FLOW REGIME CONTINUING
TO CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN AZ/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY 12Z TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL/
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY...AS THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN
NM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEN MOVE
NEWD INTO WRN KS THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY REACHING SWRN NEB BY 12Z
THURSDAY. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SRN PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SWRN U.S. CLOSED UPPER
LOW/TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NEWD INTO WRN KS...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD TONIGHT REACHING CENTRAL PARTS
OF KS/OK AND TX BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A FRONT OVER
THE NRN GULF BASIN EARLY TODAY SHOULD RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY NWD
GIVEN DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LOWER
MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM LA NWWD
TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...SRN PLAINS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNING IN
EARNEST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 60 DEG F
WILL BE SURGING INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX/SRN OK BY EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THIS MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT NOT REACHING W TX/SWRN KS UNTIL AFTER 29/00Z...THE POTENTIAL
FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS QUITE LOW.

MORE LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS WITH POST-SUNSET TSTMS TO EVOLVE ALONG
THE TX/OK BORDER SWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION AS PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD
CONCURRENT WITH THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND DESPITE THE POST-DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
AND WEAK INSTABILITY...INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. FAST NEWD STORM
MOTIONS SUGGEST INITIAL ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF SWRN KS AS
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO WRN KS. BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WITH TIME AND INCREASING ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING SQUALL
LINE REACHING FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS TO CENTRAL OK/TX BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WHILE SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION INTO MOSTLY DAMAGING WINDS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS
CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THE LONGEST WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX INTO WRN OK.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/LA...NWD TO SRN MO...

...TX/LA...NWD TO SRN MO...

NRN PIECE OF BIFURCATING UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS CO INTO THE
NRN RED RIVER REGION OF NWRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE A
SLOWER OPEN SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NM INTO FAR WEST
TX. A VERY STRONG JET CORE WILL DEVELOP ON FORWARD SIDE OF LONGWAVE
AND EXTEND FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...DISPLACED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONTAL
ZONE. EVEN SO...STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT SUCH THAT ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO ROOT INTO MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE A PROPENSITY TO ROTATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MARITIME AIRMASS WILL INDEED RETURN ACROSS TX
LATE DAY1 INTO EARLY DAY2 WITH MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED AS
FAR NORTH AS CNTRL OK AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MOISTURE PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND AND SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 70+ DEW POINTS
LIKELY INTO SRN AR/MS. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY FORCING WILL SPREAD
INITIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT DAY2 OUTLOOK...IT APPEARS A
SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH
INCREASINGLY MOIST...BUT ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
OK/TX. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION MAY ALSO TRAIL THE
LEADING WIND SHIFT AS FRONTAL ASCENT MAY BE REQUIRED FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION/MAINTENANCE OF LIKELY LINEAR MCS. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR HOW MUCH PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY
SHEARED AND MOIST WARM SECTOR. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST LIKELY
STORM MODE WILL BE A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES
AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN AT 29/12Z ARE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...SHEAR WISE...ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL TX INTO
SCNTRL OK...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS A BIT MEAGER. DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS CONVECTIVE EVENT...ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN
DEVELOP AHEAD OF MCS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS OK/TX INTO
THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
FRONTAL ZONE/MCS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE
RIVER IN SERN TX/SWRN LA INTO WRN TN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP AND CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED IN THE UT/AZ AREA THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO NM TONIGHT...AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ALOFT. COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER... MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVING/DEVELOPING I THE LBB
AREA THIS EVENING...AND THEN ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO ERN KS
BY THU MORNING...AHEAD OF EVOLVING WIND MAX ALOFT. PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND SWD TRAILING COLD FRONT.

...SRN PLAINS...
LATEST SATELLITE PW DATA AND PUSH OF MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS INTO SRN
TX INDICATES RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE NWD ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND OK INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STRONG CAPPING AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE LOW/FRONT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING. STRONG MOSTLY SSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE RAPIDLY INTO A SQUALL LINE AND SHIFT
QUICKLY EWD OVERNIGHT. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MUCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP
SSWLY WIND FIELDS...AND 700 MB SPEEDS AOA 50 KT FAVORS DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50 TO 60
KT AND STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...1 KM SHEAR AROUND 40
KT...INDICATES TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED
BOWS/LEWPS AND ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED SCENARIO STILL HOLDS...WITH AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TX AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK. A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH AROUND 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH INCREASING MERIDIONAL TRAJECTORIES AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL FLOW /55-60 KT AROUND 850 MB/ FOSTERING AN AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
RETURN SCENARIO ACROSS TX INTO OK TONIGHT. AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN OK INTO THIS
EVENING...LATEST GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT STORMS COULD INCREASE
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH BY AROUND
02Z-04Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE OR NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS TO
ACTUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
TX AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AS A MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLUX CONTINUES.
WHILE A SQUALL LINE SHOULD ULTIMATELY EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT...QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS AND/OR QLCS EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS
MAY POSE A TORNADO RISK ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

Quick update. Showers and storms forming ahead of the squall line in SC and Eastern Oklahoma. These extend down past Dallas/Fort Worth where one has developed pretty strong rotation and is now tornado warned. We may have a situation of quick spin ups tonight with the high shear environment today. No watches out at all right now though.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY
EAST THIS PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THIS
FEATURE. LEAD IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY. A STRONGER
UPPER JET NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
EARLY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NERN
TX...SERN OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEWD ALONG THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING UPPER JET. THIS
FEATURE WILL REACH THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS TODAY AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH SERN KS...SWRN MO AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS ERN OK AND
LOW 70S ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ADVECT NWD IN
WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ALONG STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO
AOB 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...BUT MLCAPE COULD
APPROACH 2000 J/KG WHERE LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY FROM NERN TX...ERN
OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN MERIDIONAL
EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AND MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST SLIGHT WARMING IN
THE 850-500 MB LAYER ACROSS WARM SECTOR. THIS AND TENDENCY FOR
DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER JET TO REMAIN POST
FRONTAL RAISES CONCERNS THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE ROBUSTNESS AND EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AND 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITHIN CORRIDOR OF DEEP ASCENT
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH TX...OK AND ERN KS
DURING THE DAY. THE NATURE OF THE FORCING AND MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL PROMOTE PRIMARILY LINEAR STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 50+ KT BULK SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS SERN KS AND SRN
MO...BUT NWD EXTENT OF THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2151.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 290607Z - 290700Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WW WILL BE REQUIRED.

RECENT TRENDS IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATE STORMS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING/INTENSIFYING ALONG PACIFIC FRONT FROM NEAR CSM SSWWD TO
JUST E OF BPG AS OF 0550Z. THUS FAR...FRONTAL FORCING HAS REMAINED
TO THE W OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT STRONGER
INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER AS
FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER MID/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NWWD BY 50-60 KT LLJ. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY FACTORS CURRENTLY LIMITING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT APPEAR TO BE ANAFRONTAL FORCING ALONG
FRONT AND TENDENCY FOR STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO
SHIFT NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE QUITE STRONG AMBIENT WIND
FIELD...RESULTING IN 0-1 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT AND 60 KT
RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED IN
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.

A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS HAS ALSO RECENTLY INTENSIFIED NEAR OR S OF
THE METROPLEX...DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL WAA INVOF WARM FRONT
RETREATING NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER. HERE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE DISCRETE TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS.

..MEAD.. 10/29/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0778_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 120 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.0 INCH IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF MCALESTER
OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES WEST OF CORSICANA TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS ACROSS NRN TEXAS. WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FSI TO
GGG...AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 IN THE WARM SECTION APPEARED TO BE
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND 1 KM SHEAR AT 40-50 KT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES. AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL SPREAD INTO SRN OK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20040.

----
WW 778 TORNADO OK TX 290620Z - 291200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
25N MLC/MCALESTER OK/ - 40W CRS/CORSICANA TX/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /24N MLC - 24NNE ACT/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20040.


Ulletin - immediate broadcast requested
tornado watch outline update for wt 778
nws storm prediction center norman ok
120 am cdt thu oct 29 2009

tornado watch 778 is in effect until 700 am cdt for the
following locations

okc005-013-019-023-029-049-063-069-077-085-095-099-121-123-125-
127-133-291200-
/o.new.kwns.to.a.0778.091029t0620z-091029t1200z/

ok
. Oklahoma counties included are

atoka bryan carter
choctaw coal garvin
hughes johnston latimer
love marshall murray
pittsburg pontotoc pottawatomie
pushmataha seminole