Finally the Atlantic tropical weather scene is starting to heat up. TD 2 is now just west of the Cape Verde islands and is moving west at 13mph. There are two more areas of interest in the Atlantic....but for now they dont appear likely to strengthen into storms. Track Tropical Depression Two / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping (http://www.stormpulse.com/) & National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)

Too bad theres nothing in the gulf.....Texas really needs the rain.

westsidesooner,

You are sooooo right, Texas is in desperate need of rain. Let's hope it doesn't come with a damaging hurricane, unless it stays well off the coastline.

Yeah....I was looking at pics of Lake Travis this morning. Or whats left of it. It reminded me of the drought they had in western Colorado a few years ago. With any luck the storms west of Dallas will continue south and give central Texas some rain tonight.

Looks like Tropics definitely get cooking now.

GFS: gfs 2009081112 Forecast slp Java Animation (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009081112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation)
TD2/Ana-to-be: Will continue west until about half way through the central Atlantic and then will die out.

A new low will form in the same area as TD2 is now. This will take a more westerly track and looks like it will strike the Windward Islands as a Hurricane.

CMC: cmc 2009081112 Forecast slp Java Animation (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation)

TD2/Ana: Moves west and then recurves in the central Atlantic as a strong TS.

New Low: Continues westerly, but not nearly as fast as GFS and much weaker.

GFDL: GFDL two02l 2009081112 Forecast slp Java Animation (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009081112-two02l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation)

TD2/Ana: Struggles to get established and follows a WNW path and is north of the Islands by the 16th. Model does suggest it will fluctuate in strength but approach hurricane strength at the end of the period - but moving away from land.

New Low: Follow same path and reaches tropical storm strength by falls apart before reach the islands.

NOGAPS: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2009081106

TD2/Ana: Like the others, slowly moves WNW and NW at the end of the period. It is slow to strengthen but gets stronger at the end. NGP tries to develop another low south of Ana in the same period, that it quickly absorbs.

New Low: Not present in the model runs.

Yeah....I was looking at pics of Lake Travis this morning. Or whats left of it. It reminded me of the drought they had in western Colorado a few years ago. With any luck the storms west of Dallas will continue south and give central Texas some rain tonight.
We could really use it, since we ended the flooding rains of March 2007 we are now over 40 inches short of average rainfall for that period and Lake Travis is 40 feet below the "full" level, which is about 20 or so feet below where the water was that March. Since that time is seems most of the storms have diverted around the Austin area, mostly heading north of Waco. We are also on Day 52 of 100+ temps and something like 18 new record highs this summer. The lowest high temp in the last 2 months was 93, most of the non 100 days have been 99, I saw 111 on the thermometer in my car on the way home by Lake Travis and it is usually only a degree or two high.
It's been so bad we have headed to Galveston and Port Aransas a couple of times to cool off. I am REAL tired of it, I am ready to move to the beach or Colorado.

The "Sometimes Islands" have become the Sometimes Peninsula and there is only one boat ramp left in operation but another 10 feet or so will take that out of commission. It looked bad last spring, now it just looks sad, all of the rivers coming into the lake are barely small streams. We are ready for something to hit in this area. We are at "exceptional drought" level but they say we are headed into an El Nino Fall so the hope is we will start seeing some wet weather.

US Drought Monitor - Texas (http://drought.unl.edu/DM/DM_state.htm?TX,S)
http://drought.unl.edu/DM/pics/tx_dm.png

Looks like Austin is getting a small break this afternoon, heres hoping it rains all night. :congrats:

Meanwhile it looks like td2 is struggling to strengthen....and Ventures models seem to be pretty accurate so far. There is another low forming behind td2 thats looking fairly impressive, at least for this season. The later in the season it gets without a hurricane the more I worry that when one forms it will be strong. Andrew syndrom I guess. Something to keep an eye on this week.

Here are the spaghetti plots for TD2/Ana-to-be.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early5.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early5.png

Looks like Austin is getting a small break this afternoon, heres hoping it rains all night. :congrats:
Well, we had some good rain in some areas this afternoon but it quit about 7:00. Still the brief respite from the heat was nice. I was doing a site walk out in the west side of town and when the storms came we were up on a rise under a canopy and the cooling breeze sure felt nice. We still need some of those tropical storms to head this way without getting too big and damaging to the coast.

Looking at the models so far, here is a roughly and average of what I think they will do if either system can continue to survive. I will say the models split where some develop TD2 into a hurricane by the end of the period and dissolve what should be TD3 this afternoon....while the others do the exact opposite. So take it with a grain of salt. TD2 looks crappy right now, so it could just fall apart...which has happened before. The new TD3 doesn't bode well for the islands, but still a long way out.

Green: Tropical Depression Winds <39 mph
Yellow: Tropical Storm Winds 39-73 mph
Red: Hurricane Winds 74 mph or higher

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/tropics.png

Last Advisory out for TD2, not enough convection to properly classify the system, so for now just a tropical low. NHC is point out that the models due to try to strengthen it, so we'll have to wait and see what happens. The forecast graphic i posted shows the potential if shear does back off and it can reorganize. Otherwise, forecast will shift to what will become TD3.

From the weather broadcast tonight it looked like TD3 could hold together awhile but you never know with them that far away.

The last public boat ramp at Lake Travis was closed yesterday.

Several models are now bringing Invest 90L...or what will be TD3...to major hurricane status in 4 days. Also some hints that it will track a bit more north than what I put. Below is the new forecast track that I'm getting out of the models. I also added in the info from the longer range models that go out 10 days. Purple shading denotes major hurricane with over 115 mph winds. I've put in weakening as it passes Hispaniola due to the mountains there that always play havoc with tropical systems. It'll definitely be one to watch considering where models are putting it towards next week.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/tropics-81409.png

Below is the new forecast track that I'm getting out of the models. I also added in the info from the longer range models that go out 10 days. Purple shading denotes major hurricane with over 115 mph winds.

The forecast models you are posting aren't showing up on my pc. When I quoted your post there was this address: Which doesnt appear in your post on my pc until I clicked "quote"

]http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/tropics-81409.png

but it doesnt show up while viewing the thread.....I did get to see it when I copied and pasted. Ive had the same problem trying to post graphics with a (.png) on it. You know I enjoy your posts. Am I the only one who cant see them???

I also looked on anvilcrawlers and couldnt find your post there....maybe you could explain to me what Im doing wrong, or where Im not looking.

Thanks WSS

westsidesooner,

All I came up with was "anvil lightning" pics last night. Rather fantastic pics I might add.

Several models are now bringing Invest 90L...or what will be TD3...to major hurricane status in 4 days. Also some hints that it will track a bit more north than what I put. Below is the new forecast track that I'm getting out of the models. I also added in the info from the longer range models that go out 10 days. Purple shading denotes major hurricane with over 115 mph winds. I've put in weakening as it passes Hispaniola due to the mountains there that always play havoc with tropical systems. It'll definitely be one to watch considering where models are putting it towards next week.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/tropics-81409.png

Yikes! If this model is true the gulf coast needs to be very worried. I'll add that I'll be in Houston from the 21st through 27th. I know that 2 weeks is VERY long to forecast out but do you see anything in the models to show that it could miss the GOM?

Its rather ironic but News ran a story last night about how, much like this season, the 1992 season got off to a late start but the first storm that formed (Andrew) was also born off the coast of Africa and turned out to be a doozy.

Not sure WSS. I'll start posting them at JPGs just so there aren't any problems. I use Chrome for a browser, so I'm not sure if there are issues in any other browser.

So going to do a run down on things. The identifiers we are going to use here are 02L (formerly TD2) and 90L which is the 2nd low behind what was TD2.

02L Discussions

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

This morning's NHC Discussion on it: 1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

My Stuff: Activity with the low has increased again late this morning. Though things are down slightly from the peak, there are still some very high and cold cloud tops with it. It also seems shear has relaxed some as well. I would probably think we'll see advisories recommence on TD2 at some point this weekend, if not sooner if regeneration occurs rapidly.

Model forecasts are a bit split on this. NOGAPS (navy model) seems to favor this one of 90L. It has it strengthening into a hurricane in the next few days and making a run at the SE US coast sometime between the 21st and 24th. CMC, GFDL, GFS models dissipates the low in the next day or two. HWRF and FSU-GFS does develop the low into a tropical storm, peaking out around 60 mph winds and taking it on a WNW to NW back to WNW course through 19th. FSU-GFS has a more pronounced recurve out into the atlantic towards the end of the period.

For the graphic, I"m going to show the 3 possibilities with this. NOGAPS will be "Model Pack 1", The next 3 will be Model Pack 2, and the remaining 2 will be Model Park 3.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/tropics-02l.jpg

90L Discussions

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Morning NHC Discussion: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

My Thoughts: It continues to look pretty strong on visible and IR. This really seems to be the one to watch right now.

CMC develops the low into a hurricane over the next few days impacting the northern Islands (sub note, it also develops another tropical cyclone after 90L). GFDL follows this and has it as a major hurricane by the 19th. GFS agrees as well, takes a bit more southerly path placing it right over the islands including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. I'll go more into the long range stuff with GFS in a bit. HWRF the same, a little easier on the intensity of the storm, still a Cat 1 or 2 storm by the time it is near the islands. NOGAPS is the only stand out here that has the system fall part. So will be discarding it for now and since everything else matches good - will only present on track for the model forecast.

USA Impacts of course start with the storm coming very close, if not hitting, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. GFS has also done a different take and curves the storm early, not allowing it to make to the gulf...but. Yeah. Looks like landfall in SE Florida as a major hurricane is the call right now. It is always important to note this is a good 9-10 days out. The storm isn't even together yet, and things can change quickly. We've seen models switch from a Central/Eastern Gulf Coast landfall to a Florida one now. There isn't anything to say tomorrow we'll see things swing it out to sea or keep it going west into the Gulf. There does seem to be a trough digging in through the Plains into the SE towards landfall time, so this is why we've seen it pushed into Florida. If the trough speeds up, it can take it out to sea. If it slows down, it'll go further west.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/tropics-90l.jpg

Tropical Low 2 (02L)...showing signs of some convection development on the west side, but also showing signs of strong easterly shear exposing part of the center.

Tropical Low 3 (90L)...similar to 02L. Strong convection development on the west side with some exposure on the east. Seems like it is trying to wrap around or develop new convection on the east side. Things should be improving as the shear weakens the next day or two.

Advisories have been restarted on TD2.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1230 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO HAS REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DATA FROM
A NOAA G-IV MISSION...NOAA BUOY 41041...AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED
ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED. THE BUOY
ALSO REPORTED 1006.4 MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 19 KT.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS NOW PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER LONG
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND WINDS FROM ASCAT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM IN A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. IN A FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT
THE SYSTEM IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE CHANGES
IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF GUIDANCE CYCLES.

RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD INDUCE SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR. GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THOUGH 48 HOURS AND LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF
MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY
TABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A
HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0430Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.7N 47.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 51.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 58.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 65.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 50 KT

TD 2 has been upgraded to TS Ana ("Ah-na") and advisories have started for TD 3. Will do a run down of the models here a bit later.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0209W5_NL_sm2+gif/143213W5_NL_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0309W5_NL_sm2+gif/143412W5_NL_sm.gif

Setting up pages for tropical systems to try to put all resources in one spot.

Tropical Weather - AnvilCrawlers (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/index.php?title=Tropical_Weather)

Ana Information will be at: Ana - AnvilCrawlers (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/index.php?title=Ana)

TD 3...Now Upgraded to TS Bill is at: Bill - AnvilCrawlers (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/index.php?title=Bill#Tropical_Storm_Bill)

High potential of TD 4 developing off the Florida panhandle. Will post more in the morning with a full model run down on everything.

Tropical Storm Claudette off the FL gulf coast will be making landfall later today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0409W5_NL_sm2+gif/174813W5_NL_sm.gif

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CLAUDETTE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. BASED ON A MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND 54 KT MEASURED AT AN ELEVATION OF ABOUT 2500
FEET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST INTENSITY IS ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE WIND
RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1800Z 29.1N 85.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 30.2N 85.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 32.1N 87.1W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0000Z 34.0N 88.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Another potentially active tropical week coming up. Developing system north of Puerto Rico could have a US impact. CMC model has landfall as hurricane in North Carolina in 4 days. GFDL doesn't develop it and keeps it well off coast similar in track to Bill. GFS develops it as a strong tropical storm and takes it slowly along the same course of Bill. It is off the coast of the NC Outer Banks in 4 days, before moving NNE and making landfall in Nova Scotia this coming weekend/early next week as a hurricane. HWRF follows this same path. NGP is in between the CMC and GFS. Tropical Storm winds expected in NC Outer Banks, then moving NNE with some effects to coast Mass and a potential landfall in SE Maine to Nova Scotia as a hurricane.

Two other systems also projected to form over the central and eastern Atlantic towards next week. CMC predicts both. GFDL does as well. GFS, HWRF, and NGP do not.

Advisories have started on Tropical Storm Danny.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0509W5_NL_sm2+gif/143059W5_NL_sm.gif

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...
WITH REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATING THE
SYSTEM WAS BEST DEVELOPED BELOW 12000 FT. QUIKSCAT DATA AND A FEW
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOW
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
THE STORM HAS BEEN TANGLED UP WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR THE PAST
24 HR...AND THE STRUCTURE AS MUCH RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES FROM
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS MARGINALLY MORE
TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...HENCE THE DESIGNATION OF TROPICAL
STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/16. DANNY IS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH
DECELERATION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
DANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY
AFFECT. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST DANNY TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 72 HR AND MOVE UP THE
U. S. EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF... AND GFDL SHOW A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAT KEEPS DANNY OFFSHORE UNTIL IT REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND
ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT
AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE 24-36 HR FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. BASED ON THIS AND THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR. IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER
STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED
SHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT IN 72 HR...THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WEAKER
THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 24.9N 70.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.8N 72.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 26.8N 73.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 74.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 30.1N 75.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 45.0N 67.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 31/1200Z 52.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Danny is still having a tough time getting convection to form around its center of rotation and appears to be wandering a little off the forecast path. It could make it interesting if it can strenghen for those on the immediate outer banks of NC tomorrow evening. Past that it loos like it might take a swipe at cape cod on late Saturday. Still not to much to get worried about, but as Bill showed us last week it just takes a minimal hurricane to be deadly.

If I remember correctly this weekend will be the 4 year anniversary of Katrina. What a slow recovery thats been. sigh

Advisories have started on TS Erika.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0609W5_NL_sm2+gif/204712W5_NL_sm.gif

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB AND A CLOSED...ALBEIT...BROAD
CIRCULATION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT WITH SFMR DATA OF
ABOUT 45 KT. THUS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS FORMED WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIKA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM SEEMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SHEAR NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FROM A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
ERIKA WEAKENING AFTER TWO DAYS DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE TWO BIG
OUTLIERS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THE GFDL/HWRF...WHICH FORM AN
ANTICYCLONE NEAR ERIKA AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST
WILL SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN
WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR TAKES OVER. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
BE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS OF NOTE THAT ALMOST ALL OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW ERIKA EVENTUALLY BECOMING A
HURRICANE...DESPITE THE SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...THOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO
HAVE DONE SOME REFORMATION SINCE YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE ERIKA TO MOVE ALONG
THAT GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...
THE STORM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AS THE TRACK PROBABLY HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY MOVE MORE
TO THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET OR GFS MODELS. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY FEEL THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
MOVE MORE TO THE RIGHT...LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST
IN THE LONGER-TERM.

BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN THAT AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.2N 57.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W 45 KT

This isnt Tropical weather related but I dont want to start a new thread for it either; so I hope ya'll forgive me for posting it here.

Those arent clouds you see out there today....its smoke from the California wildfires.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_What_is_That.jpg?timestamp=1251840289

Also there are several wildfires that appear to be breaking out in Colorado near Estes Park. They aren't showing up on GEOMAC yet but are clearly visible on webcams.

Estes Park Colorado cams-live cameras (http://www.estesparkcvb.com/cams.cfm)

GeoMAC (Geospatial Multi-Agency Coordination) - Wildfire Support (http://www.geomac.gov/)

Again sorry for going waaay o.t. Now about the tropics. Do you think we'll get any of the moisture from Jimenaa this weekend V?

Last I saw on the weather channel was its track was to take it very slowly into AZ. I would imagine there is some chance for moisture to get to OK from it. I bet those folks in South Texas would pay big money for it to go there, though and just sit for a while.

Jimena looks like it is going to turn back to the west a bit here soon but its spinning down. May get some moisture this way, but it isn't looking good for the areas that need it.

Erika is an interesting case. Winds and the terrain of Hispaniola should tear it apart. NHC forecasts this...some models try to strengthen it. We'll have to wait and see.

WSS, I noticed that when the sunlight was dimmed. I thought it was high clouds, but it looked different. I'm a bit surprised that smoke traveled from Cali to Okla, because smoke usually just fade away.

WSS, I noticed that when the sunlight was dimmed. I thought it was high clouds, but it looked different. I'm a bit surprised that smoke traveled from Cali to Okla, because smoke usually just fade away.

I thought it was high clouds too Thunder. Smoke, ash and dust (or any suspended particulate) can travel a long way if it gets into the upper atmosphere. During the dust bowl, dust from Oklahoma made it to the east coast.

I kept checking the satellite the other day and there weren't any clouds. Just a milky white haze over Oklahoma. I thought it was just fog that would burn off but it kept getting thicker. At mid-afternoon it was sunny, but the light was so dim outside it looked like a cloudy day.

I was curious if anyone knows what exactly smoke is? Is it a solid or a gas?

Tropics wise it looks like Erika is about to get decapitated. Weird season in the Atlantic. And I'm actually hoping that the moisture from Jimena doesn't (for a change) make it to Oklahoma this weekend. I'd prefer a warm sunny labor day weekend. Last chance to worship the sun and all. And tropical systems can really mess up a weekend.

Back in 1986 Hurricane Paine hit the Baja about where Jimena did, it then moved over Oklahoma and dumped about a foot of rain. I lived in The Village at the time and when the tornado sirens went off about 10 AM I thought it was to warn people of severe flooding on Village Drive. I walked out of the house to see what was happening and a funnel was going almost right over me. Scared the snot outta me. I ran into the house and watched the trees through the window bend almost all the way to the ground as I was trying to shove a mattress into the closet to hide behind. Im sure the tornado (which hit a few blocks away) was long gone before I ever made it into the closet. lol

Smoke from a fire is fine particulate matter suspended in the air. It can rise very high into the atmosphere due to the heat generated from the fire. While living in CO a few years ago when fires were so bad there, you could see thunderstorms rise out of the smoke plume from a particularly huge fire and move east over the plains. The fire was man made so essentially, these thunderstorms were indirectly man made. There were several instances of tornadoes and damage to small towns east of CO Springs.

Advisories expected to start later today on the system off the coast of Africa. Not sure if they'll go right to 'Fred' or if they'll make it TD 7.

Interesting feature in the NW Gulf. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

Maybe Possum will get some relief down there from it...I noticed Austin is under a flood warning, normally thats not a great thing but this year.....sweet. It sounds like (from Mike Morgan) that some of that moisture will be headed this way over the weekend. Oh joy.

NHC's thoughts.

1. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

WRF tonight has followed the trend to bring the low up to near South Central OK. Total washout if things stay on track. Yeah it sucks for weekend plans, but fire season is coming up and this is going to help keep it under control for us.

We've finally been getting some rain down here in Central Texas, good soaking rains. It's supposed to hang around a few more days as well.

Gotta get those lakes west of Austin up like 80 feet! Thats a lot of rain needed!

Looks like the tropical low in the gulf is getting a bit more organized, shouldn't make it to TD strength though. However, get ready for a TON of raid. Chance of rain for the next 7-8 days, with this weekend being a wash out.

Update 2:35AM: Wanted to put some numbers with the forecast for precip. This is an average total rainfall amount from a few different models. Obviously if you get a heavier storm or shower over your house, you'll go way above this.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/ok-rain.png

I'm just so relieved that it didn't rain last night for Sugarland! Now it can rain all it wants! Until the 30th - Journey! Please don't rain on the 30th. I

hope Texas doesn't have major flooding.

There has been some flooding in Salado (north of the Austin area), seems to be we either have drought or floods...right now we will take some flooding. Hopefully everyone makes out with that as well as possible.

Here is a story about the Pedernales River which flows into Lake Travis, coming into Lake Travis it is about 100-150 foot wide, a few weeks ago it looked like a dry creek with maybe a 3 foot width.
KXAN.com - Falls flow through LBJ Ranch (http://www.kxan.com/dpp/mobile/Falls_flow_through_LBJ_Ranch)

Hope it gets some water in Lake Travis . We got about 4 inches today in Liberty Hill Tx.

Only 2-3 inches forecast in OKC?
That seems low. After all, the state fair starts this week
8^)

I plan to go on the 17th.

Mr. Venture, our forecaster, please tell us Thursday will be dry!

Maybe Possum will get some relief down there from it...I noticed Austin is under a flood warning, normally thats not a great thing but this year.....sweet. It sounds like (from Mike Morgan) that some of that moisture will be headed this way over the weekend. Oh joy.

I just realized I virtually moved Possum to Austin.....sorrry, I meant bluedogok. Thats what I get for posting without my glasses.

Has the recent rain made an impact on Lake Travis yet?

I love the rain here.......but I'm also solar powered and my batteries are running down..need more sun.

Most of it was east of Travis and the other Highland Lakes, it will help the lakes a little and the aquifers some but the ground was so parched that it soaked a large amount of it up. It was definitely a good start though and has helped lower our temps, we are still just one 100 degree day away from tying the record for most in one year (69 days) but with September and October left we could always sneak one or two more in there.

Here's some pictures from the paper today off Texas 71 of the Pedernales River coming into Lake Travis.

Statesman.com - Searing heat doused, but drought is tenacious (http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/2009/09/15/0915drought.html)
This picture was shot in July
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/B/09/21/42/image_8642219.jpg

This one was shot Yesterday.
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/B/07/21/42/image_8642217.jpg

Looks like those boathouses was established right there. Doesn't look much like a river...a creek. The new weather guy at KOCO is right. In Texas, they call it a river, but it is a creek in Oklahoma.

Like Oklahoma has any river, well except the Arkansas River, that would be considered a river anywhere else.

So much for mowing anytime soon.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Weather_Story.jpg?timestamp=1253051546

That would be an unusual weather event!

Looks like those boathouses was established right there. Doesn't look much like a river...a creek. The new weather guy at KOCO is right. In Texas, they call it a river, but it is a creek in Oklahoma.
That's what two years of drought will do to a river, Lake Travis which that river flows into is 50 feet below full and 35 feet below it's monthly average. FOr the past two years we are 35 inches of rain behind the normal rainfall. The river in that area is usually almost tree line to tree line. Most of those docks are usually next to the walkway coming out the trees, most were moved last summer when the river was getting lower so they could still use them, after no rain for another year they became dry docks.

This is what the Pedernales River normally looks like in that area.
http://www.lakewaytexas.com/images/listing_photos/7_cimg2699%28small%29.jpg

Just as soon as the rain ends, Fall will actually arrive. GFS model predicting a nice cold front next week. Monday high looks like around 60, Tuesday around 65, Wednesday 75, Thursday back around 60. Maybe some rain Monday early, but dry rest of the week it looks like. Maybe we'll sneak into Fall without a storm season...I doubt it, but i'm sure Karrie wouldn't mind. : )

So much for mowing anytime soon.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Weather_Story.jpg?timestamp=1253051546


I sure wish I'd checked with you rather than trusting Mike Morgan about how much rain we'd recieve last night before spending 4 hours "hoeing?", leveling the yard and spreading grass seed Tuesday evening. Our yard is on a steep slope draining towards the street and has constant washout problems. Mr. Morgan called for .00-.25" of rain last night. We got 1.9" in our gauge. Needless to say I have a lot of repair work to do on all my lawn seeding project. And my arms and chest are still sore from hoeing.....I love that word!! Also I expect to see a nice ribbon of new grass sprouting all the way down the street along the curb. Not what I intended.

This morning it looks like our stray tropical low is finally losing its umph. So this evening I'll be back out killing myself re-hoeing, leveling and seeding. aarrgghh. And I'm not looking forward to ponchoing my way thru the OU game again Saturday. But I will if I must.

I was curious about your opinion on Typhoon Choi-Wan. Obviously it wont be a typhoon for long as it makes the turn and heads NE across the northern Pacific. But occasionaly these systems can still be fairly potent when they reach the NW US causing huge waves, wind and heavy rain. Much like Atlantic Hurricanes can cause big storms after they move across the ocean and strike Great Briitian. This tropical weather season is so slow I'm reduced to looking at western Pacific stroms for entertainment. lol Any chance Choi-Wan could be a big storm for the Pacific NW US? Non-tropical of course, but the NW is known for huge fall and winter storms.


Tropical West Pacific Water Vapor Imagery - Satellite Services Division (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/loop-wv.html)

WSS, you can not blame Mike for his forecast. His calls for general areas with potential localized areas with higher amount. Your house just happened to be directly under a more heavy rainfall. The same for other weather guys will say this as well.

Severe risk for Monday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

INTENSE SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER WY WILL BECOME DETACHED
FROM THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...FORMING A CUT-OFF
CIRCULATION OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SURGING SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS. NERN EXTENSION OF FRONT
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY TOWARD MID
MS VALLEY.

...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

A MOIST...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL BE
OVERSPREAD BY EML PRECEDING MIDLEVEL TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING
OR DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG FRONT OVER ERN KS/WRN MO WHERE
CAP WILL BE WEAKER. SUBSEQUENT STORM FORMATION IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE DAY SWWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AS STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT SPREADS SEWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL LAG SURFACE FRONT TO
THE NW. HOWEVER...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.

WSS, you can not blame Mike for his forecast. His calls for general areas with potential localized areas with higher amount. Your house just happened to be directly under a more heavy rainfall. The same for other weather guys will say this as well.

I know that Thunder. I was just being frustrated and blowing off steam, if I didnt like or trust MM I wouldn't watch him. If I have anyone to blame its myself.....or mother nature. Try planting grass seed on a highly sloped lawn, in the shade, where the neighbors downspout drains, in the rainy season, twice a year and you;ll understand my frustration. lol.

It shouldnt bother me, but Im a perfectionist (or try to be) when it comes to my lawn and garden. It doesn't help that grass seed planting season is early spring and early fall...the two rainiest times of the year. The seed I planted, then replanted last week is in the peach fuzz stage now, just a few days from being safe from heavy rain so I could use another two to three semi dry days.

Not to mention that dethatching and leveling dirt with a metal tine(?) rake is back breaking work.

TS IDA formed today.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1109W5_NL_sm2+gif/205614W5_NL_sm.gif

Tropical Storm IDA (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents)

Wow, a little late in the year but not by much.

Wow, a little late in the year but not by much.

Gotta love it. Last month of the season and we have a hurricane now. LOL