What happened to the Tornado watch.. it seems to have disappeared from my TV.

I think Karried was wishing that it had disappeared from her TV. :D

First storm is just about dead. New storm development not showing up just yet. Should get more as the cold front approaches NW Oklahoma.

Update 645PM: Watching Harper County for some signs of new development.

First candidate to go severe is in southern Harper County. Large hail now being indicated to the NW of Fort Supply.

http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/45.gif Still waiting for storms to come here.

These are gonna be middle-of-the-nighters aren't they? Or are they even expected to pass through our neck of the woods?

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
817 pm cdt wed aug 19 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Extreme northern ellis county in northwest oklahoma...
Southeastern harper county in northwest oklahoma...
Western woods county in northwest oklahoma...
Northwestern woodward county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 915 pm cdt

* at 816 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 6 miles north of fort supply...moving east at
10 mph. Another thunderstorm which was intensifying was located 10
miles west of alabaster caverns...also moving east at 10 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include alabaster caverns state park...
Camp houston...fort supply...freedom and mooreland.

The way it looks, the 3 storms will be moving SE along the general track of the boundary. Sometimes when we see this setup, the storms will combine into a single complex and race SE. We'll see what happens.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
905 pm cdt wed aug 19 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern harper county in northwest oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern major county in northwest oklahoma...
Southern woods county in northwest oklahoma...
Woodward county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 1000 pm cdt

* at 905 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles southwest
of alabaster caverns state park to 10 miles west of woodward...
Moving southeast at 15 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include alabaster caverns state park...
Mooreland...quinlan...sharon...tangier...waynoka and woodward.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1930.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NWRN OK / SRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 714...

VALID 200218Z - 200245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 714 CONTINUES.

ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN
INTO N-CNTRL OK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOWER TORNADO POTENTIAL
ACROSS EXTREME S-CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
APPEARS IMPROBABLE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM BARBER COUNTY
KS S-SEWD INTO MAJOR COUNTY OK. THE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED AS VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN OK WITH THE 00Z OUN RAOB SEEMINGLY
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS OVER N-CNTRL/NWRN OK. KVNX RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS LOCATED ACROSS WOODWARD COUNTY W OF AFOREMENTIONED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE VCI VWP DISPLAYS VEERING BUT ONLY MODEST LOW
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THIS MAY BE HAMPERING THE
EXISTING STORM/S ABILITY TO AQUIRE LOW LEVEL ROTATION. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND INTERACT WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AN ISOLD
TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE. WITH THAT SAID...INCREASING CINH DUE TO
DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL ACT TO LESSEN
THE TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME--WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUST BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW REPLACEMENT AS PLUME OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREADS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

Playing a multiplayer game to pass the time. Slow weather day...

Things seem to be fading out, but still warnings going out.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
954 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 954 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF
QUINLAN TO 6 MILES NORTH OF SHARON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CESTOS...CHESTER...FAIRVIEW...
MOORELAND...MUTUAL...ORION...QUINLAN...SEILING...S HARON AND VICI.

New storm near Hennessey...will just watch it and see what happens.

Some thoughts on tonight from OUN earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
922 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.UPDATE...
CAP HAS HELD DOWN CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER... A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS
FINALLY FIRED IN NW OK NEAR SFC PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO THE FA AND EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LLJ DEVELOPS AND FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FROM KANSAS INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OK. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR NW OK ACTIVITY. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-200500-
ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR-MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WA****A-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-
1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AT 1045 PM...THE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN KINGFISHER COUNTY TO NEAR STILLWATER. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Looks like some pretty strong winds picking up south of Langston to Meridian to the east of Guthrie. Shear marker is popping on it on GR, but we'll see if it lasts more than 1 scan.

UPDATE: 1150PM - Storm intensity with the complex is increasing. Hail to nickels and winds 45-50 mph seem to be developing with the complex.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1200 am cdt thu aug 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northern lincoln county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern logan county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern payne county in central oklahoma...

* until 100 am cdt

* at midnight cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from perkins to 9 miles
west of carney...moving east at 45 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...
Heavy rainfall...

* locations in the warning include agra...avery...carney...cushing...
Davenport...kendrick...parkland...perkins...stroud and tryon.

Storm development starting to occur in Oklahoma and Canadian counties. Nothing out of control yet, but things are starting to pop up. Also front is still way out in NW OK...and it is expected to light up as it gets closer.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1933.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 200610Z - 200745Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE W OF WW 719
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

05Z MESOANALYSIS AND CURRENT PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE
DEEPER WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S-CNTRL KS WSWWD THROUGH
THE OK PNHDL INTO NERN NM. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRECEDES THE COLD
FRONT FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WWD TO S OF GAG. AIR
MASS TO THE S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS WARM /PARTICULARLY OVER
SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX/ AND MOIST WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

MODIFICATION OF 00Z OUN SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING...BUT
FORCED ASCENT ALONG DEEPER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY SUPPORT
THE WWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THROUGH CNTRL INTO WRN OK EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH LATEST NAM/RUC
GUIDANCE AND SHOULD IT OCCUR...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

..MEAD.. 08/20/2009

If anyone has any interest in understanding why Wednesday didn't produce for severe weather...check this out: 8/19/2009 DISC: OK - Stormtrack (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21687)

Met Students, Meteorologists, Chasers, and even some people from SPC in there talking about it. Some of the discussion does get detailed, but definitely educational.

Thanks V, That was a very interesting though technical read. (especially with trying to read it this early) I cant pretend to understand most of it but parts of it I did. Its good to know that we werent the only ones scratching our heads. It just goes to highlight what should be Oklahomas weather moto. Expect the unexpected. Isnt that why we all find it so fascinating???

It looks like substanance from the jet was the issue from what I can read. The photo of the orphaned updraft was interesting. I saw that photo on the news....at least someone got an interesting photo out of the bust.

Heres hoping the rest of our second season isnt so disappointing.

Honestly, I did not really expect for a storm to be tornadic, but then again, it has been that way for most of this year. Maybe next year, we will get lucky to force buildings to be blown apart to make way for the new.

Honestly, I did not really expect for a storm to be tornadic, but then again, it has been that way for most of this year. Maybe next year, we will get lucky to force buildings to be blown apart to make way for the new.

Ummm buildings blowing apart I wouldn't consider lucky. So you may want to revisit your position on that.

As far as the tornadic probability yesterday. The conditions were actually crazy good for a few strong tornadoes, but several factors came in to play. As described in the thread I linked - I'll summarize. Essentially the lower levels were good, the mid and upper were bad where the winds were mainly unidirectional. As soon as the storms moved off the outflow boundary, subsidence killed them off quickly. The only good areas for lift were along the boundaries, once they moved away the air was sinking and the particles couldn't sustain an updraft.

Thanks for the translation V. :tiphat:

Venture, there is a lot of worn down buildings that are just left there for nothing. The only way to force improvement is mother nature taking her course. I agree that injury and death is bad, but a lot of these old buildings just have to go. For example, people will be cheering when a tornado whip apart HPM.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1973.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK...NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261952Z - 262215Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
COULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WARRANT A WW.

SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM NW OK SWD INTO NWRN
TX...JUST W OF A NARROW MOIST AXIS. DEEP MIXING ON THE DRY SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN CAP EROSION AND AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF
HIGH BASED CU...WHILE THE MOIST SIDE REMAINS LARGELY CLOUD FREE.

FORCING IN THIS AREA IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND FOCUSED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE
WITH 850 MB-300 MB MEAN WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. THUS...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE...WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG MICROBURSTS AS DCAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS
OF 1600-1800 J/KG.

IF ANY STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER
THETA-E AIR TO THE E...MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND DOWNDRAFTS...MAY
RESULT.

..JEWELL.. 08/26/2009

The storm coming thru the past hour was a direct hit here. All I can say is...wow!

Just got a message from mom. Lee broke thru the barrier from the laundry room and ran to her bedroom, trying to get under her bed.

:LolLolLol

He's a large doggy (mentally puppy) and must only stay in the laundry room when he comes in at night, during the storm, and hot temp.

Definitely some electric storms. Next one on the way from the west.