Day 1 Outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

Current Conditions - Mesonet
http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

Visible Sat Image
http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma.gif

Current Radar Mosaic
http://weather.cod.edu/data/nexrad/Oklahoma.gif

Latest Upper Air Sounding
http://weather.cod.edu/data/raob/ounskewt.GIF

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0534_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE
BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER AR
ALONG WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
LEADING TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE...SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXIST.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30020.

I'm surprised. http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/13.gif

Any developing storms will move S/SW as in backward?

Boundary where storms will develop is showing up nicely on visible satellite. Storms will move S to SSE today.

If you're in the OKC area, look to the north and northwest....(its around 2:23pm right now) and you'll see some of those little cumulus clouds trying to organize and tower just a bit, right along a line that matches up with that satellite photo above and at the edge of the watch area...

Im going to go outside and do a raindance.....maybe it'll help.

Initiation has begun just to the west of the watch box area. New MCD is out for it...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1381.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301938Z - 302115Z

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH SPARSE
STORM COVERAGE...SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

AT 19Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED NEAR 35 N OKC-AMA-LVS LINE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FRONT HAD WARMED INTO THE MID 90S...WITH
DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. EVEN THOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAD MIXED AND DRIED...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...PW/S
BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HEAVY RAIN CORES...THE STRONGER
DOWNDRAFT INTO THE WELL MIXED AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND THE LACK OF RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY WIDELY
SCATTERED...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORM BRIEF. ALSO...THE
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS
MOVING SSEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM.

Development is increasing on cell in NE Canadian County...keep dancing WS. : )

Custer County cells are developing pretty rapidly now.

http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/3680/cloudsp.jpg

WSS, make sure you do the actual raindance, not the dance that brings down this site. :omg:

Venture, what the probability for a tornado?

They extended the Sligh Risk toward out west.

Umm tornado chance? About 0.00000000000000001%. To be honest, tornado threat won't be a concern again until probably September or October.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
357 pm cdt tue jun 30 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern lincoln county in central oklahoma...

* until 445 pm cdt

* at 357 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 3 miles west of chandler...moving south at 5
mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include chandler and sparks.

This includes interstate 44 between mile markers 162 and 170.

Development is really struggling in the I-35 corridor. Those lucky enough to get under these storms will get rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.25 inches an hour. Enjoy the water.

WSS, make sure you do the actual raindance, not the dance that brings down this site. :omg:



You noticed that huh....lol. Well you know what they say about white bois. Sorry about the crash. Looks like my rain dance days are done, notice how the storms seem to be avoiding Ok county. sigh. sorry. Guess I'll be turning on the sprinkler when I get home.

:sofa:

Yeah, I'm a bit disgusted that storms are going around OKC and Mid-Del portions again. That storm to the east, I'm hoping it continue to build/spread westward as it moves south.

I'm bout go to work now, so I'd love a good soakin fun, so continue with that dance, WSS!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1387.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OK...AR...EXTREME NWRN MS...NRN/ERN
PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534...

VALID 302314Z - 010115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534
CONTINUES.

STG-SVR TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY
TROUGH AND CONFLUENCE LINE...ANALYZED AT 23Z FROM TANEY COUNTY MO
WSWWD ACROSS NRN FRINGES OKC AREA TO ROGER MILLS COUNTY OK. FORWARD
PROPAGATION ALONG OUTFLOWS WILL MOVE TSTMS GENERALLY SWWD ACROSS WRN
OK AND INTO ERN PANHANDLE...SWD OVER CENTRAL OK...AND SSEWD TO ESEWD
ACROSS ERN OK AND AR.

INITIAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS N OF LIT HAS WEAKENED...AND OTHER ACTIVITY
IN AREA IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT GIVEN PRESENCE OF SEVERAL PRONOUNCED
BOUNDARIES MOVING AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN REFLECTIVITY
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED -- AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES AND ESPECIALLY THEIR INTERSECTIONS. PRECONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN...S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL AR IS CHARACTERIZED
BY RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN
STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL DESCENDING TO SFC. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL UP TO 1.75 HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM LIT AREA AND SURROUNDING
COUNTIES DURING PAST 1-2 HORUS. NET CONVECTIVE MOTION OF
BEST-ORGANIZED COMPLEXES OVER CENTRAL/ERN AR IS ESEWD TOWARD NWRN
MS. SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AND LESS BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN E OF
MS RIVER...HOWEVER...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE STABLE WITH
SFC COOLING NEAR SUNSET. THEREFORE...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MS.

ELSEWHERE...TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED...WITH SPORADIC GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS...AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. OVERALL THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS
OUTFLOWS SPREAD OVER LARGE AREAS...AND NEAR-SFC LAYER COOLS
DIABATICALLY...COMBINING TO REMOVE MUCH OF MLCAPE PRESENT IN
PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

Yeah, I'm a bit disgusted that storms are going around OKC and Mid-Del portions again. That storm to the east, I'm hoping it continue to build/spread westward as it moves south.

I'm bout go to work now, so I'd love a good soakin fun, so continue with that dance, WSS!

you spoke too quik MWC got slammed a little while ago! near Carl Albert HS they got high winds and pea size hail! OK OK they really didnt get slammed,but they did get a heavy t-storm,and your right about it backbuilding to the west thats exactly what it did!

My electricity (in Del City) was off for about 30 minutes. It was quite the potent little storm.

Didn't rain a drop on the westside........

WSS, your dance was a HUGE SUCCESS!!! Just as soon I arrived, lights went out! About 20 minutes later, we got slammed! Really slammed for like a long time! I was so soaked. http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/4.gif

Umm tornado chance? About 0.00000000000000001%. To be honest, tornado threat won't be a concern again until probably September or October.

I know there was no tornadoes yesterday, but there was a funnel. The storm was a potent little rascal. Pics of funnel on kfor website near crossroads mall. KFOR your space where you send in your pictures of weather events in Oklahoma. - KFOR (http://www.kfor.com/community/yourspace/weather/)

Thunder....your welcome, but as I mentioned it didnt do any good on the westside.

We had a funnel! :omg:

An outflow boundary from storms that are dying over NE OK. is now moving thru the metro and is forecast to end up stalling from near Norman to El Reno this afternoon. Hopefully we'll see some rain out of this. Keep your fingers crossed. With the 4th just around the corner we could use the rain to keep fire chances down. The OFB shows up very well on Ventures first post of this thread both on satelite and radar.

From the NWS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=124654 5726


.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. A SMALL COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAD JUST GRAZED KAY COUNTY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDER...ON ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WAS MOVING SOUTH...AND STRETCHED FROM CUSHING TO GUTHRIE...BACK
NORTHWEST TO FAIRVIEW AND WOODWARD. THE WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEAR WOODWARD...WHILE THE EASTERN END IS EXPECTED TO
REACH SHAWNEE...NORMAN... AND EL RENO...BEFORE STALLING. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

Thanks to the mods for updating the title.

General rule of thumb the next week...storms will that get out of hand will be hail and wind producers. We aren't in a tornadic setup at all...typical summer time storms. Severe weather will be pretty isolated until the 4th, when there should be a better chance - especially along and north of I-40. SPC has a slight risk out for this area in their Day 3.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO A PORTION OF THE MID/LOWER MS IN VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PROBABLE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS FARTHER
WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WITH BULK SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS
STORMS DEVELOP SWD INTO MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS.

New Day 2 for 4th of July...

Slight risk now includes all except for SE and NW Oklahoma (including the panhandle).

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
STRONG HEATING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AT BEST...LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
MIXED LAYER...AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE DCAPE VALUES INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT INTENSITY AND
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SWD ALONG THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

Today's Severe Risk...Day 1 outlook

...SRN PLNS...
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG/S OF ADVANCING CDFNT AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SATURDAY AFTN. SFC DEW POINTS UPR 60S/LWR 70S COMBINED
WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE MLCAPES 2000 J/KG FROM THE
TX S PLNS EWD INTO OK. SUSTAINED LLVL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
BOUNDARIES WILL YIELD WDLY SCT ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CNTRL/ERN OK...THEN ALONG THE CDFNT FROM
WRN OK/TX S PLNS LATER. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY LESS ACROSS THE REGION THAN AT POINTS FARTHER
NE...INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MID-LVL DRY AIR
WILL AUGMENT DOWNDRAFTS RESULTING IN DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE STRONGEST
OF STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM. SVR THREATS WILL CONTINUE SWD
INVOF BOUNDARIES DURING THE EVENING.

Outflow boundary continues moving south. Some storms firing along and north of it right now from Holdenville to east of Slaughterville. I would expect this to continue developing westward as two boundaries are intersecting. Activity here is moving ENE. Other area of rain is moving through the North and NW sides of the Metro. Nothing major here just some water.

SPC Update...

..SRN PLAINS...
WEAK COLD FRONT ARCS FROM ERN KS TO THE NRN TX PNHDL AND THEN NWWD
INTO NM/CO. A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM NWRN AR ACROSS CNTRL OK
TO THE ERN TX PNHDL. SIMILAR TO POINTS EAST...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP AND MID LEVEL FLOW AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS WEAKER. NONETHELESS...AS SWATH OF WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DECAYS ACROSS NRN OK AND THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING...NEW AND INCREASINGLY STRONG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM NWRN AR WWD ACROSS OK TO
NWRN TX. INTENSE SURFACE HEATING ALONG THIS ZONE WILL RESULT IN
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENTLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR
DAMAGING TSTM DOWNDRAFTS. RESULTING STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS IN
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL
SUSTAIN SEVERE WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREATS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
THE SLGT RISK AREA.

Watch for counties I-40 and South...includes the southern areas of the Metro.

Wwus30 kwns 041743
saw6
spc aww 041743
ww 546 severe tstm ok 041745z - 050100z
axis..40 statute miles north and south of line..
55ene adm/ardmore ok/ - 45wnw lts/altus ok/ ..aviation coords.. 35nm n/s /23sw mlc - 34nne cds/ hail surface and aloft..1.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28015.

Lat...lon 34009612 34310000 35470000 35169612

this is an approximation to the watch area. For a complete depiction of the watch see wous64 kwns for wou6.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0546_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ALTUS
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...

DISCUSSION...VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /95-100F SFC TEMPS AND
DCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
WELL-DEFINED MCS OUTFLOW SITUATED ACROSS SCNTRL OK ATTM. A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ESSENTIALLY REMOVE REMAINING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE REACTIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEP AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT
SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TSTM DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE. RANDOM STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS MAY FURTHER ENHANCE TSTM
ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28015.

I just can't believe this... a hundred degrees for weeks on end and the one day that everyone has outdoor plans, it storms. ugh.

Yeah, yeah, we need the rain.. but why not yesterday or tomorrow? No.. has to be on the Fourth of July and ruin all of our outdoor picnic plans. oh well, could be worse.. I'm just pissy about it all .....

Main storm motion is changing and most cells are now moving east to ESE. Scattered shower development has taken place back through western Oklahoma. Strongest activity/storms is along a line from Dibble to Purcell to Holdenville to McAlester.

I hope all those professional fireworks are covered during all this rain. They can still pop them in between the storms. Some would have to wait until rain passed and others would have to pop them as soon it gets dark enough, depending on the weather. It's a gamble.

That carnival in Moore is bad karma. Events like that attract storms. Look at the annual state fair.

Most intense and severe weather is out in the TX Panhandle right now. Some storms continue around Lindsay to near Wayne. Some others near Hobart, Willow, and Sayre. Everything else is pretty light. Most of the metro looks dry for right now and will need to wait on redevelopment along the cold front later this afternoon.

This looks like the last shot at rain for the area for the next 10 days, unless we luck out with a MCS from the north dropping down in the next couple days. Some indication of a tropical system forming in the East Pac south of Mexico...but that is out of position to swing moisture up our way. Yeah it sucks it is a holiday, but we really need the moisture...ground is drying out fast.

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.daily.current.FW05.grad.png?1246739441

yeah, all our plants are stressed. The fescues turning yellow and the oaks and redbuds are dropping their leaves. We reaaaaaly need the rain.

yeah, all our plants are stressed. The fescues turning yellow and the oaks and redbuds are dropping their leaves. We reaaaaaly need the rain.

Most of mine are ruined. http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/14.gif

Storm development is improving a bit, now just south of Hinton to Weatherford and west. Storms appear to be shifting ENE again now, so the metro may be able to get into some good amounts of rain here in the next few hours. Yeah it sucks for fireworks, but should allow for most of the picnic activity to finish up. Another smaller storm is also up around Edmond, but just raid and some lightning.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
458 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southwestern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northern caddo county in southwest oklahoma...

* until 600 pm cdt

* at 458 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm near lookeba...moving east at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include binger...cedar lake...cogar...el
reno...hinton...lookeba...minco and union city.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 115 and 126.

Another smaller storm is also up around Edmond, but just raid and some lightning.

That should take care of the bugs. Sorry I couldn't resist. And yeah it sucks about the fireworks if the rain does come into the metro.

Everyone is mad that the rain is ruining everything. Well, I'm mad for having to go to work, but since I have to work, I am very excited to have the rain roll on thru.

:LolLolLol

Watch county notification for watches 546/548
national weather service norman ok
450 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

okc017-081-109-050100-
/o.exa.koun.sv.a.0546.000000t0000z-090705t0100z/

the national weather service has extended severe thunderstorm
watch 546 to include the following areas until 8 pm cdt this
evening

in oklahoma this watch includes 3 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian lincoln oklahoma

this includes the cities of...chandler...el reno...mustang...
Oklahoma city and yukon.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
537 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 615 pm cdt

* at 537 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 7 miles west of mustang...moving east at 15
mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include bethany...del city...forest
park...lake aluma...moore...mustang...nichols hills...northwestern
norman...valley brook...warr acres...western oklahoma city and
yukon.

This includes interstate 35 between mile markers 115 and 134.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 132 and 157.

This includes interstate 44 between mile markers 108 and 130.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with no advance warning.
Move immediately to a storm shelter... Basement or sturdy building if
a tornado is sighted.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
604 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 645 pm cdt

* at 604 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm near bridge creek...moving northeast at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include bethany...bridge creek...moore...
Mustang...newcastle...northwestern norman...southwestern oklahoma
city...stanley draper lake...tuttle...valley brook and warr acres.

This includes interstate 35 between mile markers 113 and 126.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 141 and 150.

This includes interstate 44 between mile markers 98 and 123.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
612 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Western oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 700 pm cdt

* at 612 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm near el reno...moving northeast at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include el reno...northwestern oklahoma
city...piedmont...richland and the village.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 122 and 134.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
759 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern lincoln county in central oklahoma...
Northern pottawatomie county in central oklahoma...
Northern seminole county in east central oklahoma...

* until 900 pm cdt

* at 759 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles north of
meeker to tecumseh...moving east at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...

* locations in the warning include aydelotte...bethel acres...
Centerview...dale...earlsboro...johnson...little.. .meeker...
Prague...seminole...shawnee...sparks and tecumseh.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 179 and 210.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with no advance warning.
Move immediately to a storm shelter... Basement or sturdy building if
a tornado is sighted.

Showers/Storms are now developing along the approaching cold front in Northern Oklahoma. Once this comes through that should choke off the rest of the rain for tonight.

Long hot week ahead. Some chance of a stray storm tonight into tomorrow morning if any make it off the front range. Other than that, nothing through Sunday. Upper high does start to move into the Rockies early next week setting up NW flow. Looks like first shot at MCS activity starts around Tuesday of next week...but it is still very low. We'll have to wait until then to see how things work out. MCS's get really tricky predicting more than a day out due to left over boundaries, instability, winds, etc...all playing a major factor in where they track and if they are even able to get going.

Long hot week ahead.

Well arent you just full of good news today!!! Looks like the dog days are here. Tropics are anemic this summer as well. Stupid el nino.

Ooowwwwww <--my howling dog imitation

Looks like first shot at MCS activity starts around Tuesday of next week...but it is still very low. We'll have to wait until then to see how things work out. MCS's get really tricky predicting more than a day out due to left over boundaries, instability, winds, etc...all playing a major factor in where they track and if they are even able to get going.

Venture, I was wondering if any particular MCS/derechos stuck out in your mind. I'm not sure if it was a derecho, but I remember one in July of 95 that took out power to more than 175,000 people in the okc metro. We lost power for 5 days (man it was hot) and lost one huge oak tree. It was awseome and scary standing on the back porch that night watching 50 and 60 foot oaks bend alomost to the ground in the 100 mph gusts. It did a lot of damage to the fairgrounds if I remember.

June 2005 is probably the one that comes to mind right away. It just looked amazing and impacted a lot of people. Case study on it: http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/114900.pdf

Looked at the models this morning. Some chance...less than 10% of a shower or what not the next day, but then it is dry for awhile. Models backed off pattern change next week and now have the high parked right over us. Oh joy.

Models backed off pattern change next week and now have the high parked right over us. Oh joy.


Well arent you just full of good news today!!!

:yeahthat: ditto what he said. lol

Venture, I was wondering if any particular MCS/derechos stuck out in your mind. I'm not sure if it was a derecho, but I remember one in July of 95 that took out power to more than 175,000 people in the okc metro. We lost power for 5 days (man it was hot) and lost one huge oak tree. It was awseome and scary standing on the back porch that night watching 50 and 60 foot oaks bend alomost to the ground in the 100 mph gusts. It did a lot of damage to the fairgrounds if I remember.

I remember that storm quite vividly. My wife and I had been married barely seven months, and it did the most widespread damage of any non-tornadic storm I remember in my 40+ years of living in Oklahoma. We were out of power for several days, and lost a fridge full of food. The house was absolutely sweltering.

There was a time several years ago, possibly that 2005 timeframe, where over a period of several days there was a series of derechos that were moving into the state that started in western Kansas, hooked south, and plowed through OK and into northern Texas. Our familiy vacation was right smack in the midst of these storms. We were taking the kids and my mom to San Antonio, and planned to leave around daybreak, but I had alerted my mom to the fact that if these storms rolled through, be prepared to leave early - which is precisely what we did. I got up the next morning, caught the radar, and sure enough - a derecho from western Kansas was heading our way, and I got everyone up to leave early.

The storm literally chased us out of OKC as we were leaving, and we drove out from beneath the wind gusts, thunder, and lightning by the time we hit Norman. The remnants of that storm survived into N. Texas later that same day before dissipating...(the rest of the vacation was great, tho).

The derecho that bypassed OKC but hit Stillwater with hail on June 12th was sure a doozie.

New (1 hour ago) MD for Oklahoma. Also severe thunderstorm warnings for Kingfisher and Logan counties until noon. This storm could affect Edmond and Guthrie with strong winds.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1485.gif

FROM SCNTRL KS INTO NRN AND ERN OK...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO INTENSE
STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS MORNING WITHIN A ZONE OF 800-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE EDGE OF
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION TO THE WEST. DESPITE THESE DIAGNOSED AND
RELATIVELY LARGER SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT
TSTM ACTIVITY...MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LEADING INTO THIS
MORNING FAILED TO PREDICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
RUC AND NAMKF MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND BOTH TEND TO SUPPORT A SLOW DEMISE TO TSTMS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET/MASS TRANSPORT WEAKENS AND THE
CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS APPEAR TO
SUGGEST THAT STORM COVERAGE...AND POSSIBLY STORM INTENSITY...HAS YET
TO PEAK.

GIVEN THAT STORMS EXIST WITHIN A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR /AOA 30KT/ TO MAINTAIN SOME UPDRAFT INTEGRITY/PERSISTENCE...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT CURRENT ACTIVITY...WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED AOA
850MB...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES PERSIST AND CONGEAL IT SEEMS POSSIBLE
THAT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING LEADS TO WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION. IF THIS
TREND STARTS TO OCCUR...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL/ERN OK LATER THIS MORNING.

I can't believe it! I think I'm dreaming! http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/13.gif

Guess that means you got rain? Congrtulations!!! Guess what we got on the westside........:cuss2:

That storm from late this morning teased the east side of OK county, with all manner of wolfy, swirling clouds, and I think at least 17 actual raindrops, before dissolving (or perhaps just getting pushed southeast) almost literally in front of our eyes....

Just a few raindrops here. I couldn't believe a storm actually existed in this state today. At one point, I saw on News 9, over 1200 lightning strikes a second!

I don't think Venture realized what just happened today.

I'll bet that was 1200 per hour on the cg's. At least some people got one last shot of rain before the heat comes back........wish some of it would have been at my house. And it did keep the temps from getting rediculous today, this morning was actually nice for awhile.

News 9's CG count is per 10 minutes...so that would have been 120 per minute.

And yeah, Thunder, I knew what was going on. : ) WS had things covered on here for the most part, so no sense in duplicating things. Got a good 10-15 minute downpour here which was nice. Another long shot for a repeat tomorrow morning, but we'll see.

Tomorrow morning! http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/13.gif

http://4warnstormteam.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/blog_070809.jpg?w=468&h=315

^^^ Posted for tonight.

I'll keep my fingers crossed for tomorrow am. Maybe Thunder could do the raindance this time since when I did it it rained at his house. :poke:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1495.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL KS INTO NERN OK

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 090301Z - 090500Z

SEVERE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUS...CONSIDER THIS AREA NOW IN A SLIGHT RISK UNTIL THE 06Z OUTLOOK
IS ISSUED.

SEVERE STORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER S CNTRL KS WITH LARGE HAIL. AREA
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED EXISTING STORMS
OVER KS.

IN ADDITION TO A HAIL THREAT...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP
WITH TIME. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH LEVELS OF DCAPE...IN EXCESS
OF 1600 J/KG. THUS...WITH PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT AND NWLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS OF 60-70 KT...A FEW STORMS MAY ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS
SERN KS AND INTO NERN OK WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...IN ADDITION
TO HAIL. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPSCALE
GROWTH...AND A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.

..JEWELL.. 07/09/2009