This should be the last one of these posts for awhile.

Day 1 Outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

Current Conditions - Mesonet
http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

Visible Sat Image
http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma.gif

Current Radar Mosaic
http://weather.cod.edu/data/nexrad/Oklahoma.gif

Latest Upper Air Sounding
http://weather.cod.edu/data/raob/ounskewt.GIF

Threat today is condition again on boundaries, upper air energy coming in at the right time, and oh ya...busting the cap. Morning sounding pretty much inline for a decent severe weather day. Cap is still very strong, so things may not get going until late in the day. Main risk today is large hail, wind threat is there as well - especially around dying storms. Tornado threat is going to be pretty marginal, but boundaries can make anything happen if the storm interacts with them in a certain way.

This should be the last one of these posts for awhile.

Amazing that we've had several days of risk for severe weather, monster hail in Stillwater, a tornado in Norman widespread wind damage and we've had less than .25 inches of rain on the westside. All spring long I kept thinking the metro had some kind of force field around it deflecting the storms....Mesonet seems to back me up. Doesn't bode well for a green summer. Looks like another year of astronomical water bills. Lets hope the metro gets some rain today/tonight. Otherwise I'll be praying the tropics get active soon.

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.daily.current.FW05.grad.png?

OT: You might enjoy this until things get going this afternoon. The first minute is pretty cool. Who knew you could make thunder (for t-man) sounds by jumping. Turn up your sound volume.

Perpetuum Jazzile + The Real Group - Africa (http://www.flixxy.com/perpetuum-jazzile-real-group-africa.htm)

Sounds like the chances are pretty low today here in the metro. could I get away with washing my truck today?

If it will help get us rain before we get extremely dry, I say go for it. :)

Tornado watch out for the panhandle and far western counties. Nothing to worry about right now. Slight risk for the state is now from northwest of I-44 to OKC and north of I-40 to the AR border.

I was thinking that the storms developing out in Texas could reach the metro, but the question remains if they can hold together. The NWS seem to be saying that the metro is basically less organized storms with hit and miss. It's gonna be a long wait, unless some storms fire up a few hours ahead of the storms in Texas.

I couldn't find anything on the location of today's boundaries.

Dryline is out in the panhandle, front is along the KS border. Other than that, not much left around. Cap is also too strong and will take some work to break.

The storms south of I-40 in the Tx. Pnhdl are having a very hard time organizing. So I'm not going to hold my breath for any rain tonight. The storms further north in the panhandle and sw Kansas all look very impressive on radar. To bad they aren't moving se. Bet they're a pretty sight.....all discrete supercells. Any chance at all of an mcs this far south tonight V? Might be our last chance for the season. :whiteflag

WSS, the question is...Where in the world is Venture?! :omg:

I liked the "nuclear summer" comment on this mornings AFD

I liked the "nuclear summer" comment on this mornings AFD

Yeah. Precip chances look like maybe some in the morning (10%), Friday afternoon (10%), and that's about it. So essentially as it stands right now, this concludes the first severe weather season of 2009. Things will be back sometime this Fall. : ) Granted I say that, and we'll have some monster storm systems out of no where plow through and then a tropical system move up and dump a ton of rain on us.

The thermonuclear cap'o'death has arrived.

I've been stuck at home with a cold all week and thought I'd bore ya'll with some more charts. While this year seems to have been fairly quiet severe weather wise....epecially tornadoes, a closer look shows that we are actually pretty close to the last 10 years average. Especially considering we still have 6 months to go. This year torandoes have struck Oklahoma city, Edmond, Norman, Enid, and the killer tornado in Lone Grove.

By year:

2009...32
2008...41
2007...50
2006...26
2005...27
2004...62
2003...78
2002...18
2001...61
2000...43




http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2009_annual_map_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2008_annual_map_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2007_annual_map_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2006_annual_map_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2005_annual_map_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2004_annual_map_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2003_annual_map_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2002_annual_map_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2001_annual_map_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2000_annual_map_torn.gif

Hmmm...while this is not a hard mathematical computation, it is interesting to observe that these charts tend to show something I think is interesting....the 2008 map tends, at least as I look at it, to show a degree of concentration of tornadic activity more in the southeastern US, in a region very roughly outlined from NE Texas to central Louisiana, through southern Mississippi, then back toward NW Arkansas and back to NE Texas. That same "rough" region is decidely less active through the charts in 2007 and 2006..

Be interesting to do some research on those numbers in more detail...

Yeah, there are some interesting trends. I noticed that 2007 and 2005 were big west Texas dryline years. Maybe the trends are related to el nino/la nina years.....dk. Im expecting a major outbreak in the upper midwest (Iowa-Ohio)the next 2-3 days....it could be very dangerous up there this week. Also last weekends St Jude golf tourney in Memphis was plagued by severe weather and the US open looks like it might get the same treatment this weekend. Maybe we need another major golf tourney in Oklahoma? :bright_id

Borrowing this old thread for today, Friday 6/19.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1236.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL OK...WRN PORTIONS OF N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191840Z - 192015Z

A THREAT FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SWRN/CENTRAL OK AS WELL AS
WRN PORTIONS OF N TX. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING E
ACROSS NEB/KS...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 70+ KT MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK /PER REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK/. THE RRQ OF THIS UPPER JET IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...PROVIDING A
SOURCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.
MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY AN MCV/ EMBEDDED WITHIN
MOIST/TROPICAL SLY FLOW REGIME OVER WRN TX WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING
NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON TOWARD WRN PORTIONS OF N TX AND SWRN OK.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF OK HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY LATE MORNING...WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS AIRMASS IS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS 12Z OUN RAOB
YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN
WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO COLD FRONT LOCATED NW OF THE
REGION...COMBINATION OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER AIR FEATURES AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WITH APPROACHING W TX DISTURBANCE. THOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...30-40 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW MAY RESULT IN MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Im getting desperate in my search for rain/weather. V If you're here can you tell me what this feature is moving through ne oklahoma? NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Western Arkansas/Ft. Smith, AR (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=SRX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)

I know the feeling. Most of my flowers doesn't look good. :-(