Breaking this off from the other thread since the info will get buried. Slight risk both Saturday and Sunday for the area. Hail and Wind primary threats.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE ONLY SUBTLE...SLOW CHANGES WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SEASONABLY
STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW...TOPPING THE CREST OF A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/NORTHEAST MEXICO
REGION...BUT A NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION IS NOW UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH...INTO/THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...AND THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...FROM SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE SURFACE TO
30-40+ KT WESTERLY AT 500 MB...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
TODAY. OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION OF
STORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SUPPORTS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS LIKELY WILL FOCUS THE MOST
PRONOUNCED DESTABILIZATION...WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO EXTREME AS
CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT INTERACTING UPPER JET STREAKS COULD FOCUS A
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE CONSOLIDATION OF
STORMS INTO A GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE. AS
A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE
EVENING...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR INCREASING
ORGANIZATION AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO WRN TN...

...CENTRAL U.S...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 60HR AS SPLIT
FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE STRONGEST BELT OF MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
BASE OF WRN U.S. TROUGH OVER AZ/NM...NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL OF ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY LATE EVENING MODEL
GUIDANCE...INDIVIDUAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVE DIFFICULT TO
TIME AS THEY EJECT EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHERE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...REPETITIVE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR MCS TYPE ACTIVITY
MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE FORECAST WELL BY ANY SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE. FOR THIS REASON WILL OPT FOR A RATHER BROAD SLIGHT RISK
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY...SWD ALONG
THE DRYLINE INTO WEST TX...THEN ARCING EWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS
KS/MO INTO WRN TN. IT APPEARS THERE IS A REASONABLE THREAT FOR AN
EARLY MORNING MCS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS WELL AS OVER OK. THIS
ACTIVITY...OR THE REMNANTS...SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD WHERE RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 40-50KT H5 FLOW. WHAT APPEARS TO BE
MORE PREDICTABLE WILL BE THE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST
TX...NWD INTO ERN CO/WY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE ANY
INHIBITION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-70. SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE BEFORE SPREADING
INTO WRN NEB/KS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AFTER DARK. FARTHER SOUTH...AN
INTERESTING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC MAY BE
DRAWN NEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SRN NM/WEST TX DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD. REMNANTS OF THIS MOISTURE SOURCE SHOULD INTERACT WITH GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION FAVORS ONE OR MORE MCS/S DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...NEWD INTO
KS.

Moderate Risk upgrade for today. This includes the Southwestern half of the OKC metro area including Cleveland, McClain, Grady, western Pott, and southern Canadian counties. High end risks for extremely large hail and destructive winds.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX...AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MS...AL...GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...TX/OK...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA. DESPITE THE RIDGE ALOFT...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX. STRONG HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL YIELD A POCKET OF EXTREME INSTABILITY...WITH NUMEROUS MODELS AGREEING ON MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. HEATING WELL INTO THE 90S WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THE CAP AND LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TX AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A REGION OF STRONG AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40-60 KNOTS/. THIS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1092.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131243Z - 131345Z

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW KS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 STATUTE MILES ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED OVER A STRONG CAP ACCORDING TO THE RUC IN A RELATIVELY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABOUT 30 KT WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MONITOR FOR INCREASING TRENDS.

..BROYLES.. 06/13/2009

Hazardous weather outlook...updated
national weather service norman ok
644 am cdt sat jun 13 2009

this hazardous weather outlook covers northern...western...Central...and southern oklahoma...and western north texas.

.day one...today and tonight...

Thunderstorm outlook...
There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight across all of western north texas...as well as portions of western and central oklahoma.

Location...
The moderate risk area is south and west of a line from arnett...to watonga...to norman...to marietta. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight across the remainder of northern...western...central...and southern oklahoma.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe thunderstorms will be from 4 pm through 2 am.

Impacts...

Some damage to rooftops... Automobiles... And tender vegetation from large hail to the size of baseballs. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. Isolated tornadoes.

Recommended actions...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the risk area should plan for severe weather operations from late this afternoon until early sunday morning.

Discussion...
Thunderstorms may develop over portions of western oklahoma early this morning near a zone of lift associated with the low level jet. Though these storms could become marginally severe...they are expected to weaken after sunrise.

A weak stationary front positioned near the red river will provide a focusing mechanism for thunderstorm development by late this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures reaching well into the 90s...combined with the presence of the frontal boundary...should be enough to allow storms to break the cap. Though mid level temperatures will not cool much...plentiful low level moisture will create a highly unstable atmosphere. Storms that develop this afternoon are expected to form a complex with a threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts...with this complex moving eastward across western north texas and southern oklahoma. An isolated tornado is possible...especially after dark as the low level jet increases.

A complex of thunderstorms moving southeast from the high plains...also with a threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts...could affect areas from northern into central oklahoma very late tonight.

Probability table...
Valid through 700 am cdt sunday jun 14.
Probability of thunderstorms occurring in the
nws norman county warning area...100 percent.
Probability of severe storms if storms occur...70 percent.

Other hazardous weather...
Thunderstorm complexes this evening and overnight could bring heavy rain...with a threat of localized flooding.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday...

Thunderstorm outlook...
A frontal boundary is forecast to remain over or near oklahoma and north texas through the weekend. With the boundary close by...along with plenty of moisture and several small scale disturbances embedded in moderate southwesterly flow... Thunderstorm chances will continue into the early part of next week.

Other hazardous weather...
None.

The next scheduled hazardous weather outlook will be issued at noon today.

Venture, I'm in shock. I did not expect a Moderate Risk for today.

What are your thoughts beside the data from the NWS?

Do you think the CAP has weaken today?

What time do you think the metro will see destructive storms?

Going to introduce a new item here in my continuing series of educating OKCTalk on weather geek stuff. LOL I'm going to try to go very basic with this, so other weather geeks can dive in more with additional detail to clarify certain specifics.

Upper Air Soundings
The latest sounding (weather balloon) from Norman this morning.
http://weather.cod.edu/data/raob/ounskewt.GIF

So what does this tell us?

First the big picture...Red line is temp, Green line is dewpoint. This is good for finding any layers of dry air above the surface and layers of warmer air aloft...IOW if there is a cap in place. This morning shows there is.

On the right side of the main image are the wind barbs with speed and direction. Ideal shear for rotating storms would have a gradual change from SE at the bottom to W going up through the levels. This morning looks like mainly E winds at the surface up to about the 3000' ft (height can be found by looking at the left, the numbers in black are altitude in meters) level and then SW to WNW as you go up.

Now the numbers on the right side in blue...I'm going to skip a few here and there.

WMO - This is the identification number for the location.
TP: Tropopause level in millibars.

FRZ: Pressure level in millibars when the temp reaches freezing.

PW: Precipitable water in inches. >1.75" is extremely saturated, <0.75 is very dry. We are right in the middle this morning.

RH: Relative humidity average between surface and 500mb level - which is about 17,000' ft today. Right now it shows it around 58.7% which is low to moderate.

MAXT: Maximum afternoon temperate. Showing 33.3°C which would equal about 92°F this afternoon.

L57: This is the lapse rate from 700 to 500mb levels. Less than 5.5 is going to be pretty stable, 5.5 to 9 is conditional unstable, 9 and higher is extremely unstable. We are at 7.5 this morning, so the atmosphere is pretty unstable.

LCL: Lifted condenstation level in millibars tells us at what level the clouds will be forced to form when lift takes place. The higher the number, the closer to the surface clouds will form and this gives us the chance for more surface based activity. We are at 953mb this morning which would put us around 1000' today.

LI: Lifted Index...anything higher than 0 is considered stable. -1 to -4 is marginally unstable, -5 to -7 highly unstable, -8 to -10 very high instability, -11 or higher is extremely unstable. We are at -6.1 right now so the atmosphere is highly unstable.

TT: Total Totals Index helps determine if convection is going to happen. <44 convection is not likely, 44 to 50 convection likely, 51-52 isolated severe, 53-56 widely scattered severe, 56 or higher is scattered severe storms. We are at 54 this morning, so we can expect the majority of storms today will be severe.

KI: K Index measures lapse rate and moisture in the air. Less than 15 convection is not likely, 15-25 small potential for convection, 26-39 moderate potential for convection, 40+ high potential for convection. We are at 30 which would high at a moderate chance for storms today (40-60%).

SW: SWEAT Index or Severe Weather Threat Index combines a bunch of stuff to determine severe probabilities should convection occur. 150-300 Slight chance of severe storms, 300-400 severe storms possible, 400+ Tornadic severe storms possible. We are at 330 right now, so good chance any storm that does form today will be severe.

EI: Energy Index this compares heat and moisture in the low/mid levels to determine severe storm potential. This figure only matters if the cap breaks that day. Greater than 0 no activity expected, -2 to 0 isolated severe storms possible, and less than -2 severe storms probably with tornadoes possible. We are at -4.8 today, so yeah.

CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy...how much gas the storms have to work with. 1 to 1500 Moderately unstable, 1500-2500 high instability, 2500 or higher very high to extreme instability. We are at 2438 this morning so far, so the juice is there.

CINH: Convection Inhibition is essentially your anti-CAPE and measures the strength of the cap. This number goes down with heating and any boundaries influencing lift. This isn't a number to always focus on, because some setups make this number pointless. 0-50 Weak Cap, 51-199 Moderate Cap, 200+ Thermonuclear cap, enjoy the sun burn. We are at 117 this morning, so a moderate lid is on the atmosphere so convection won't go crazy until heating is well under way or a boundary can produce enough lift.

CAP: Strength of the cap pretty much. 0 - No cap, 0.1-1.9 weak cap, 2.0-4.0 Moderate Cap, 4.1+ Strong Cap. We are at 4.0 this morning, so it is a pretty strong cap that will require heating and forcing from boundaries to help break.

STM: Storm motion and speed should they form. The first number is the direction the storm will be coming from. So 297 degrees on the compass is WNW, so storms will be moving to the ESE today unless other factors (boundaries, mesocyclone, etc) impact their direction. Speed is in knots at 16, so storms will move generally 20-25 mph today.

HEL: Helicity Amount...how much vorticity is available to storms. 150-300 possible supercells, 300-400 supercell severe storms, 400+ tornadic supercells. Today we are at 177 so there will be enough for supercell formation, but not ideal for strongly rotating storms.

SHR: Positive shear from surface to 9000 feet. 0-3 weak shear, 4-5 moderate shear, 6 - 8 high shear, 9+ extreme shear. We are at 0 right now, so not much at all right now.

SRDS: Storm relative directional shear...the direction change of the wind that effects the storms from the surface and 3 km in the air. Less than 30 weak, 30-59 some shear, 60-89 moderate shear, 90+ strong shear. We are at 108 for today.

EHI: Energy helicity index helps determine how strong storms and tornadoes can be if they occur by taking the storm relative helicity and cape today in an equation. EHI > 1 supercells are likely, 1 to 5 tornado strength from EF1 to EF3 possible, 5+ EF4 to EF5 tornadoes possible. We are at 2.0 for today.

BRN: Bulk Richardson Number takes CAPE and divides it by shear available. <10 environment too sheared - storms will get ripped part, <45 supercells likely with the teens being optimal for severe storms. We are at 17.6 this morning, so good environment for supercells today.

Okay so that wraps this up. Essentially what we can tell is that atmosphere today has the potential to produce severe weather, so some moderate to high end severe stuff possible. There is a cap in play today that will require other features to help break down. However, we have a good understanding that if stuff forms today, it'll likely be severe.

You just answered so many questions I've almost asked you before. I've never been able to read those graphs. I'll have to print that out to keep handy. Thanks V. Now I can lurk in chaser sites and not feel so much like Im trying to reading Russian. So how close was the tornado to you last night? Channel 4 said it was moving nw, and was on the ground for up to 10 minutes. Heard anything on the track or damage yet? It might be all over tv but I havent watched the news since 630 or so this morning. Busy busy....

Today I have obligations to attend this afternoon and evening. Grrrrrrrrr. May have to have my weather scanner in my pocket and an escape plan. lol

:sofa:

A few blocks away. LOL Damage wise mostly fence and tree damage. At least one home did have about half of its roof torn off. Some other minor home damage as well. Looks like it'll probably be an EF1 after they do the survey.

OKC proper and most of the Metro is now out of the MDT risk for the day. Latest Day 1:

...WRN OK INTO NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
WHILE THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY BY CAPPED THRU MID AFTERNOON UNDER THE RIDGE POSITION...VERY STRONG HEATING ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL RAISE SFC TEMPS TO NEAR 100 F NWRN TX WHICH ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR OF ABOVE 70F BOTH VICINITY AND N OF BOUNDARY AND TO THE E OF WHERE DRY LINE IS ABLE TO MIX WILL PUT IN PLACE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 4500 J/KG. GIVEN THE LACK OF AVAILABLE LARGE SCALE LIFT AS AREA IN THE RIDGE POSITION...SURFACE BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOTH VICINITY E/W BOUNDARY AND THE INTERFACE OF THE STRONGLY HEATED/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT VICINITY N/S DRY LINE WCENTRAL TX.

MOST FAVORED REGION FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE WHERE GREATEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL RESIDE. ADDITIONALLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE REGION NERN NM AS MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SPREADS WWD. SUPERCELLS WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE VEERING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT/LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC/S.

HAVE SHIFTED THE ORIGINAL MDT TO THE N AND W BASED ON THESE REASONINGS WITH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED WITH SWD EXTENT INTO SWRN TX AS CAP WILL BE STRONGER UNDER RIDGE ALONG WITH WEAKER SHEAR.

SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS MDT RISK AREA THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY FORM ONE OR MORE MCS/S IN RESPONSE TO FORECASTED INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET TO 30-40KT AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL E/NEWD ACROSS OK/SRN KS TONIGHT.

What?! We had a tornado last night ???

It was a ninja tornado. Sneaky ;)

oh lord.. i'm so glad I didn't know! I was dancing the night away.. oblivious to all danger! just the way I like it.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0398_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 110 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE TEXAS TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 397...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 4500 J/KG.
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

Venture, that storm in Texas fired off from a boundary there and is moving NE.

There's 2 boundaries across Oklahoma. When, and if, the storms fire off of these boundaries, do they typically follow the boundaries or go the direction with the wind?

Depends. the tornadic part of that storm down there is actually going ESE right now and the cell to its north is going NE. Just depends on how rooted to the boundary they get, how strong the mesocyclone is, etc.

I see it. Looks like it will split up. I'm hoping for rain today. I just love working out in the rain. :LolLolLol

Current Thinking right now...

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/oklahoma-61309-4PM.jpg

Extremely unstable airmass south of I-40 this afternoon. Best chance for development this afternoon will be along the southern boundary. Right now it looks like development in the next 2-3 hours is about right. The northern boundary looks like it may be late development again.

CU development is very well established, so it will just take one storm to get an updraft going and break the cap. Best convergence right now is south, eventually north will get there. Both boundary could be focuses for MCS development later tonight. Tornado risk will be highest along any boundary.

oh lord.. i'm so glad I didn't know! I was dancing the night away.. oblivious to all danger! just the way I like it.

I just had a mental visualization of Karried, dancing like a mad woman, as she floats and twirls into the sky...oblivious to funnel cloud that now carries her above the scenery. :LolLolLol

Didn't get a chance to review the 18Z sounding, which was sent up due to the severe risk today. Atmosphere seems to be moderate moist still, there is a cap still around 7000-8000' feet right now. Wind fields could look better for rotating storms. LCL levels have gone up, as expected with heating, to around 3000'. Cap remains pretty strong, but CINH is nearly gone - essentially we just need a trigger or peak heating to kick something off. Atmosphere is extremely unstable, so the energy is there. Helicity has really fallen off, so we'll probably be looking for boundary interactions to trigger any tornadic activity.

Pretty much all wait and see now until the cap breaks.

Venture, do you see the metro as having a good chance for severe WX??

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0399_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 400 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
LIMON COLORADO TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 397...WW 398...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MOIST ESE POST-FRONTAL FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG AND N OF STALLING FRONT. COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF PASSING AZ/NM UPR
DISTURBANCES...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND
AND A FEW TORNADOES. SOME OF THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
OR TWO E TO ESE-MOVING MCSS LATER TONIGHT...THAT MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SVR HAIL/WIND.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1102.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTH TX INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK AND
SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 398...399...

VALID 140046Z - 140145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 398...399...CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCHES 398/399 CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z/06Z RESPECTIVELY...WITH A
BROAD CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELL/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN TX AND
WESTERN OK THIS EVENING.

HIGHLY COMPLEX/WIDESPREAD SEVERE SCENARIO CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS EVENING. WITHIN WW
398...THE MOST PROLIFIC STORM ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX
/HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES AS OF 0030Z/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AMIDST A
SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST/HIGHLY UNSTABLE INFLUX. THE 00Z FORT WORTH
OBSERVED RAOB REFLECTS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8 C/KM AND A MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 17 G/KG...WHICH IS RESULTING IN
STRONG MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4200 J/KG. THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH
ASSOCIATED TRANSIENT/RAIN EMBEDDED TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING COLD POOL/CONTINUED STORM
MERGERS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A TREND TOWARD SEVERE MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TX INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK.

FARTHER NORTH IN TORNADO WATCH 399 ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS...OTHER SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO/LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD/EXPAND
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY AIDED
BY THE INCREASE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH 40 KT MID LEVEL ATOP MOIST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OTHER SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO/ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

AREAS ADJACENT TO TORNADO WATCHES 398/399...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND
SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL KS...ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ONE OR MORE
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR LOCAL EXTENSIONS.

..GUYER.. 06/14/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0402_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 397...WW 398...WW
399...WW 400...WW 401...

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS NOW EVOLVING OVER NW TX
AND THE SE PART OF THE TX PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP
GENERALLY E OR ENE INTO N TX AND CNTRL OK LATER TONIGHT. DIURNAL
CIN INCREASE WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE AND POSSIBLY HINDER EWD STORM
PROPAGATION. BUT COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED...VERY MOIST ESELY LOW
LVL FLOW /ESPECIALLY N OF STALLED FRONT OVER SRN OK/...MODERATE WLY
MID LVL FLOW...AND VERY DEEP EML SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR DMGG WET
MICROBURSTS...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AS
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

WS 0402
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 600
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Quick radar snap shot...

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/oklahoma-61309-904PM.png

New development under the anvil blowoff in souther Grady County. Storms going up in South Central Oklahoma are severe and very electric. Additional redevelopment back in WC Oklahoma. The wanna be MCS is still down by Wichita Falls with a TON of lightning. Winds around 70 mph with it right now. It is track ENE at about 30...putting it into the Metro around 11-12 if it holds together.

Quick update. Convection is trying to form near central OK now from Alfalfa and Grant counties south through Kingfisher and Watonga. Additional convection is from Cordell in Wa****a County south to the state line. Severe weather is limited to hail and wind storms along the Red River valley. Winds are 45-60mph just north of these storms are have a High Wind Warning covering them. Also a storm was maintaining itself coming into the OK panhandle just south of Liberal, KS.

Upper air sounding indicates a moderate cap remains in place this evening. Conditions have destabilized more with an extremely unstable atmosphere. Conditions are there for rotating storms tonight, but right now things are struggling to find a trigger to get through the cap that is around 7000' up.

Storm moving into Beaver County in the panhandle is now Tornado warned. Will wait to post anymore updates until it makes the main body of the state.

I'm home! :LolLolLol

Sad to see nothing special. :omg:

Basic rundown of what is out there.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/oklahoma-61309-1017PM.png

Venture, what are the chances of a tornado in OK county overnight?

Venture, what are the chances of a tornado in OK county overnight?

Ask me in about 100 years when it may be possible to actually answer that question.

Ask me in about 100 years when it may be possible to actually answer that question.

Oh, I get it. You believe in Global Warming, when the night will be day and full of tornadoes. :LolLolLol

Umm no. Technology isn't there yet to come close to forecasting that. Leave your political junk out these threads.

It's not my political junk. Just a side joke. :LolLolLol

Just had a lil nap, wake up to find...nothing. Isn't that sad? Hope something form out west as the low level jet increase toward the path of instability.

Main show looks like Monday...but will pass this on.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THRU THE OZARK PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE
CNTRL GULF STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF VIGOROUS JET STREAKS IS NOW NOSING ACROSS
THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND PROGGED TO BEGIN DIGGING INTO
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS
INDICATE THAT A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY... CONTRIBUTING TO A
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...MAY ELONGATE EASTWARD...BUT BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE VICINITY
OF A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES...AS WELL AS
SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. BUT...A NORTHWARD RETURN FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING PATTERN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND THE EVOLUTION OF MULTIPLE
LARGE STORM CLUSTERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S..

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU AND CNTRL GULF STATES...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROUNDING THE CREST
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE THAT
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EDGE OF
STRONGER CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z TODAY. IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INFLOW OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 70S SURFACE
DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES
...RETURNING NORTHWARD ON THE NOSE OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
JET...A GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO BE UNDERWAY.
ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 40+ KT 500 MB JET
STREAK...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE POTENTIAL LONGEVITY OF ANY EVOLVING CLUSTER IS STILL UNCLEAR AT
THE PRESENT TIME...AS WEAKENING/BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM
IMPULSES. AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER FROM
THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
AREA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU ADDS UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED VORTEX COULD MAINTAIN A STORM CLUSTER...OR CONTRIBUTE TO
THE GENERATION OF NEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Venture, the storms out west, do you think they can hold and strengthen as they move east?

Day 1 Outlook area has been moved west some to cover most of the main body of Oklahoma.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF
MT/WY/SD INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST
STATES TODAY WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES TRACKING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ...AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN CO AND NORTHEASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS HAS DIMINISHED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...BUT MODELS INSIST THAT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TODAY AS FAR NORTH AS SD/SOUTHEAST
MT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER A WIDE AREA OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY.

...TN/MS/AL...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING NEAR MEMPHIS TN.
A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE STORMS OVER
WEST TN AND NORTHERN MS...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO NORTHERN AL.

...EASTERN CO/WEST KS/WRN OK/TX PNHDL...
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX...AS WELL AS OVER THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP
TO STRENGTHEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
TRACK EASTWARD INTO AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BY
EVENING...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE HIGH PLAINS AND PROMOTE FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES THROUGH THE EVENING...WHILE
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE PROMOTE THE RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCS/S MAY PERSIST
WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/KS/OK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

Ran a bit behind with the last outlook, here is the new one.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS
EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

TROUGH IN W AND FLAT RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN STATES. IMPULSES
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF TROUGH AND THROUGH THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY.
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD FROM NC TO TN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER
FRONT DROPPING SWD THRU OH VALLEY AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH SWINGING
ESEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES.

RESERVOIR OF GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM SRN PLAINS EWD AND
WITH LEE TROUGHING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURNS NWD THRU
HIGH PLAINS TO FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

...HIGH PLAINS FROM OK/TX NWD TO DAKOTAS/SERN MT...
WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS AZ/SRN UT AND
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF HIGH PLAINS...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON MUCH OF AREA E OF ROCKIES. AIR MASS BECOMES
MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES RANGING DOWNWARDS FROM AOA 2000 J/KG
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO 1000 J/KG NRN HIGH PLAINS. SUFFICIENT
SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VEERING PROFILES OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF S/W TROUGHS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 30-40KT THIS EVENING...ONE OR MORE
SEVERE MCS/S SHOULD DEVELOP AND RIDE EWD ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS KS/NRN OK. WITH AN EML IN PLACE AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT CONTINUING ALL NIGHT EWD
TOWARD LOWER MO VALLEY. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0256 pm cdt sun jun 14 2009

valid 142000z - 151200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the high plains sewd into
the mid ms/oh/tn valleys and parts of the southeast...

...the plains ewd into the mid ms valley region...
Isolated storms continue to develop across the high plains
attm...and convection continues shifting newd across the srn rockies
toward the central and srn high plains ahead of pronounced
short-wave troughing shifting newd in moderate swly mid-level flow
field. While fairly widespread clouds have hindered destabilization
across parts of the plains...instability has become favorable for
continued development across the high plains region.

With deep-layer shear supportive of supercells and low-level
sly/sely component -- particularly invof several wnw-ese low-level
warm frontal segments over the plains...a threat for isolated
tornadoes is evident along with large hail and damaging winds.

Overnight... The upper short-wave trough ejecting into the high
plains along with the associated development of a sly 40-plus kt
low-level jet over the plains should allow clusters of storms to
shift ewd in the form of one or more mcs. Expect a threat for
damaging winds and hail to continue through the night...perhaps as
far se as the mid ms/tn valley region late within sewd-moving storm
clusters.

4PM Regional Weather Look

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/oklahoma-61409-4PM.png

Strong to Severe storms continue to develop in the Panhandle. These are all moving NE and should approach western Oklahoma in 2-3 hours. The area in light blue represents the most unstable areas. This area is mostly in partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies right now. There is an outflow boundary in the area, dashed line estimates position, that may focus development later this afternoon/evening. Helicity values are highest near this boundary and may increase the risk for any rotating storms should they interact with this boundary - if storms do form. New tornado watch is going up now for the far northwest counties of the state.

Ww 411 tornado ks ok tx 142110z - 150400z
axis..75 statute miles east and west of line..
40wsw gag/gage ok/ - 40wnw hlc/hill city ks/ ..aviation coords.. 65nm e/w /31wsw gag - 25nnw hlc/ hail surface and aloft..3.5 inches. Wind gusts..70 knots.
Max tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25030.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0411_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 410 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HILL CITY KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...WW 408...WW
409...WW 410...

DISCUSSION...DRY LINE IS PUSHING INTO WATCH AREA AND RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH. WITH FAVORABLE
SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.
IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE WATCH DURING THE
EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 600
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Venture, have fun today. Be back later.

Quick Update...

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/oklahoma-61409-610PM.png

Complex of supercells, one tornadic, continues in the southern panhandle and western North Texas. The tornadic storm should remain south of the Red River, the others will move into SW Oklahoma in the next couple hours.

Some light showers moving into Canadian County associated with some congested cumulus in the area, no immediate signs of this area developing further. This area is near a boundary running from the NW to the SE. Most of this area in Central and South Central OK remain in clear to partly cloudy skies and are the most unstable areas right now.

Risk to the Metro appears to be after dark again tonight, depending on how the complex to our SW and another potential one forming in Kansas evolve.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1123.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 142318Z - 150015Z

AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE LOWER PLAINS REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WATCH...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY NOT NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS BETWEEN NOW AND 02-03Z.

Ww 414 severe tstm ok tx 142350z - 150700z axis..60 statute miles east and west of line..
55n csm/clinton ok/ - 45wsw sps/wichita falls tx/ ..aviation coords.. 50nm e/w /35ese gag - 36wsw sps/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..70 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0414_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...WW 408...WW
409...WW 410...WW 411...WW 412...WW 413...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ENE INTO WRN N TX AND SW OK LATER THIS EVE.
DEVELOPMENT MAY IN PART OCCUR BY DOWNWARD SATURATION FROM THE MID
LVLS...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST EVE OVER THE RED RVR VLY
REGION. SOMEWHAT GREATER WLY COMPONENT TO MID LVL FLOW ALSO MAY
ENHANCE EWD MOTION OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND...WITH SOME SVR
HAIL. ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE PREDICATED ON STORMS REMAINING
SFC-BASED AS THEY TRACK EWD. GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF LOW LVL
CIN...AND EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF SAME AFTER SUNSET...TORNADO
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ATTM. BUT TRENDS OF ERN-MOST STORMS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR MAINTENANCE OF SFC-BASED FEED ...AND ANY POSSIBLE
ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES.