I'm going to get an outlook done for the next week starting today, but will focus on the SPC stuff for the first few days and then go ahead and post my thoughts here in a few when I get some more time.

Graphics - These will auto update on their own for that particular date/time. Period of this thread does start 6/6/09 but the graphics will continue to change to be of current time.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/data/nexrad/Oklahoma.gif

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

NWS Norman Enhanced Page: NWS Norman, Oklahoma - Enhanced Weather Page (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php)

State Webcams: Live Webcams - AnvilCrawlers (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/index.php?title=Live_Webcams)

Current Conditions: Current Conditions - AnvilCrawlers (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/index.php?title=Current_Conditions)

Model Forecasts: Model Forecasts - AnvilCrawlers (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/index.php?title=Model_Forecasts)

Saturday 6/6 - Today
Slight Risk for the Western 1/3rd of Oklahoma. Main risk is large hail and damaging winds. This threat could move into Central sections later as mostly a damaging wind threat from collapsing thunderstorms/heat bursts. Extremely electric storms are also likely, so if you are out on the lakes and such, be aware.

SPC MA Sector for today covering Oklahoma: SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis Page (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=2)

Update for watch.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0337_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT SILL OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...WHERE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HELPED TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
AND TRACK/DEVELOP SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OK DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

There is some severe weather in the state, but nothing Metro impacting right now. Will post updates if things get closer.

Overnight Early Monday Morning into the day on Monday...

Scattered strong/severe storms are continuing to develop in the Central part of the state. Storms will have some severe hail but the biggest risk tonight is high wind. Collapsing storms have been producing 60-80mph winds throughout the night.

SPC Discussion for Monday


...SRN PLAINS...
A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY FROM
NORTH TX NEWD INTO NE OK WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. A FEW STORMS MAY
ALSO INITIATE FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO WCNTRL TX WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

Front has stalled out (for the most part) around the I-44 corridor...winds are north in The Village/Yukon and from the south in S OKC and Norman. Scattered development is occurring south and north of the Metro area. Area along (just slightly north) and south of the front remains very unstable today. Tornado risk is very slow, but hail and wind threat is moderate to high today with any storms that can form (cap is very strong). We are going to be in this period for the next week with isolated/scattered severe storms popping up (if they can break the cap). There also seems to be some indications we are moving into a more favorable setup for MCS/MCCs later in the week.

Latest SPC thinking:

...CENTRAL OK NEWD INTO SWRN MO...
STILL MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK...THOUGH CAP IS HOLDING STRONG DUE TO INCREASED CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND WEAK FORCING. STORMS LOOKING MORE UNLIKELY...BUT SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP...MLCAPES NEARING 4000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE.

The NWS has mentioned the possibility of more heat bursts this evening across south central Oklahoma. There have been a few of these events over the last couple of weeks. Are they caused by the hot air "cap" aloft? I dont remember there ever being so many in so short of time frame. Looking forward to the weeks storms.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=124449 1393

Reported wind gusts the last 7 days.....mostly cause by or associated with heat bursts.

Station Wind Gusts Date Time
Washington 71 mph Jun 7 9:50 pm
Washington 65 mph Jun 7 9:55 pm
Woodward 63 mph Jun 6 2:45 am
Slapout 63 mph Jun 6 2:05 am
Slapout 62 mph Jun 6 1:25 am
Stuart 60 mph Jun 3 1:35 am
Acme 58 mph Jun 7 9:05 pm
Acme 58 mph Jun 7 9:00 pm
Woodward 58 mph Jun 7 4:35 pm
Woodward 58 mph Jun 6 2:55 am
Camargo 58 mph Jun 6 2:25 am
Walters 58 mph Jun 3 1:20 am

Yeah they knocked out power here in on the east side of Norman last night. Looking forward to it again...well not really. : )

Watch for the extreme SW part of the state: Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0352.html)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0352_radar.gif

DISCUSSION...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NW TX FROM 21-22Z...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS
COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FARTHER
NE INTO SW OK. STRONG INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING CAP ACROSS NW TX
THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...AND THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE
MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM SE NM...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KT WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AND STORM
MERGERS/UPSCALE GROWTH LATER THIS EVENING WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED BY THE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AND SOMEWHAT MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

Scattered shows are developing just south of the front in Central Oklahoma now from Rush Springs/Chickasha over to Noble...Tribbey...Seminole...and Wetumka. Cell by Wektumka has some lightning with it now. Low level jet is going to be increasing tonight so development should continue from around this area and north. Main risks tonight will be hail with the strongest storms, but also very strong and potentially damaging winds with any collapsing storms.

Don't see anything on the radar, Venture. You posted that an hour ago, so these storms must've been extremely short lived.

Cap is extremely strong. Things should pick up later tonight to the SW and develop along and north of the front. Tricky forecast though with the cap.

Hey Venture...this is very cool! Are you a weatherman/forcaster...or is this just a hobby?

And lemme ask ya a question while you are on the line. About three weeks or so ago...there was a Thunderstorm system over OKC, around 3:00 in the morning. Then all the local TV Stations went into their alert mode...talking about the Thuderstorm collapsing and all the energy just rushing to the ground and dispersing along the ground. What was that called?

Yep, I remember that.. something like 'heat bursts and collapsing storms' whatever it was, it knocked down all of our fences.

Went to school for it, but haven't done anything professionally. :)

Heat Burst is the situation you are talking about. They happen this time of year when the storms collapse and the air completely rushes out from it. We had the situation last night that caused the severe winds westside pointed out.

Venture,

Thank you. All I know is that next day, or maybe a day later, the clouds in and around NW OKC were absolutely amazing...I was in utter awe because I had never seen anything like it before. The only way I can describe it is that it was like looking at an upside down bowl of gray cottage cheese.

I tried posting the pics to KFOR but for some reason they didn't take.

Next time I'll see if I can post them on here. I am sure you have seen plenty of clouds like the ones I saw that day.

Those are called Mammatus...saw them as well.

Mammatus cloud - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mammatus_cloud)

Heat Bursts are really fun! :LolLolLol Ya get the thrill on the Jet Stream ride! Woooohoooooo!!!

I'll try to explain it, possumfritter. When a storm die out, they naturally slow down gradually and all the air exit thru the outflow. Sometime, it is not the case. When the inflow suddenly stops, the storm collaspes. When that happen, all the air up in the storm comes crashing down, pulling the jet stream along with it. As the air rushes down, it heats up the air and rob it of humidity (becomes really dry).

These kind of event can be damaging of hurricane strength winds at a constant speed for several hours.

Thunder,

That's the exact term KFOR used..."Hurricane Strenth Winds." It did get pert windy over here for a good bit, but I can guarandangtee ya, after surviving Hugo (South Carolina), those winds that morning weren't nuttin. LOL!!!

But after what you folks went through with that May 3, 1999 tornado, I'll take a hurricane on the coast anytime!

Outlook for Tuesday from SPC...OKC impacting comments are highlighted.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK...ERN
PA...MD AND NJ...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS A
60 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS WITH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN WRN KS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS...STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A MOIST
AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F EXTENDING NNWWD FROM
CNTRL OK INTO WCNTRL KS. NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR BY 00Z SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY IN CNTRL OK WITH MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. FURTHER NORTHWEST...MLCAPE VALUES DROP
INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE INTO NW KS. IN ADDITION...THE
MID-LEVEL JET MAX SHOULD MOVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A VERY FAVORABLE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ONCE SFC-BASED STORMS INITIATE JUST WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ORGANIZING A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN KS
AND DRIVING A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS EWD ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN MO
OVERNIGHT.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREATS...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE FROM NRN OK INTO CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING FEEDING
INTO SUPERCELLS ONGOING IN THE NRN PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND HUTCHINSON KS AT 00Z SHOW IMPRESSIVE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 800 MB AND
0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND
500 METERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT
TRACK EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WITH THIS VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LONG TRACK
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE
CORRIDOR WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST
FROM HAYS KS EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO MANHATTAN KS AND SWD
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED SWD INTO
FAR SRN KS AND NRN OK WHERE A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE INCREASINGLY
INFLUENTIAL. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN KS INTO NW MO AS
THE MCS BECOMES WELL-DEVELOPED.

Preview for Wednesday in the SPC Day 2...

AY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SRN
PLNS NEWD TO THE OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MID-WEEK PD AND FEATURE
A SRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/SWRN STATES AND A PROMINENT
NRN BRANCH UPR LOW ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE FORMER FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE
FROM THE MID-MS VLY INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT PHASES WITH THE NRN
STREAM UPR LOW. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER WAVE...CURRENTLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE PAC UPR LOW...WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE SRN PLNS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESULTANT BOUTS OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
ENE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESIDING FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE OH
VLY REGION...WILL BE IMPETUS FOR EPISODIC TSTM CLUSTERS.

...LWR OH VLY/OZARK PLATEAU SWWD INTO THE SRN PLNS...
MID-LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPR OH VLY DISTURBANCE. A COMPARATIVELY STRONGER IMPULSE
AND ASSOCD ASCENT ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE SRN PLNS BY
WEDNESDAY MID-AFTN AND SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD THE OZARK
PLATEAU/LWR OH VLY DURING THE EVENING. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE
RETREATING FRONT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO MID-UPR 60S SFC
DEW POINTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HEATING ALONE WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE SUFFICIENT FOR IGNITING STORMS GIVEN THE REBOUNDING CAP.
BUT...ADDED MOISTENING VIA LARGER SCALE ASCENT AND PERSISTENT MOIST
INFLOW/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN GENERATING SFC-BASED STORMS
FROM SRN IL WWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO AND ERN KS BY MID-AFTN.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND W TX NEAR
THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTN...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT.

THE ENTIRE REGION WILL RESIDE IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DRYLINE. FARTHER
TO THE N AND E...SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR A
TRANSITION INTO BOWS/LEWPS...WHILE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY
FARTHER TO THE S. LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY ALONG THE E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP INTO SVRL MCS/S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DMGG WIND THREAT PSBLY SPREADING THROUGHOUT
THE OH/LWR TN VLY BY 12Z THUR. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT AND WEAK
CYCLONIC UPR FLOW AND A 25-30 KT WSWLY LLJ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
SRN PLNS STORM CLUSTERS TO EXHIBIT BACKBUILDING QUALITIES THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

Those are called Mammatus...saw them as well.

Mammatus cloud - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mammatus_cloud)

Venture,

That's them! And I'll tell ya what, if I ever see any cloud formations like the ones in that one pic, "Mammatus Clouds and Crepuscular rays over San Francisco Bay," I am gonna bend over, stick my head between my knees, and kiss my butt good-bye because those things look apocalyptic!

I luv those clouds, pretty awesome!

SPC Update for Today:

THREAT ACROSS CNTRL OK IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM INITIATION WHICH
APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THIS AREA LIES
BETWEEN BETTER DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND STRONGER
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA ANY CONVECTION BREACHING THE
CAP WOULD POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
THUS...CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

I luv those clouds, pretty awesome!

Me too Thunder. I took some pics from the night possum mentioned but as usual I cant readily locate them to post this morning. My orginizational skills are lacking. Mammatus are beautiful, especially at sunset. And while they aren't really dangerous. They are usually asociated with cumulonmibus clouds (thunderstorms) which can be. When I was little I used to think that mammatus were little funnel clouds just waiting to drop from the sky. Used to scare the snot outta me. lol. Heres a couple of cool pics to keep the thread interesting until this afternoon. Could be a bumpy evening up north.


http://www.dnr.ne.gov/floodplain/mitigation/mammatus3.jpg

http://www.haldermanhome.com/luiseno/weather/FeaturedPicture/clouds-mammatus-usafa-20040810.jpg

WSS, can you imagine the panic if we all see clouds like those to the extreme! :LolLolLol

Karrie would be coming on here, freakin out at Venture. :-P

They are usually a good indication, for whatever reason, of a storm that has (or in process of) dropped a lot of hail or is quite intense. I have a few pics laying around of them, but haven't uploaded them to AC yet.

The MCS in Kansas is producing an outflow boundary that is quickly moving south. If this trend continues it may mean that the risk area may shift slightly south. At least to the OK/KS border. Come on down OFB.

From the nws.

UPDATE...
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. WEAKENING WARM
FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED
AND SUSPECT PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING
GENERATED BY THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT WILL LIKELY
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. NOT SURE THAT IT
WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO REACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT COULD
BE CLOSE. ALSO WILL MONITOR THE DRYLINE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
A SECOND POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION LATER TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE WSW OVER THE PANHANDLE... AND
EVEN INTO FAR WESTERN ELLIS COUNTY. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY HIGH BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT... WE SHOULD SEE THE DRYLINE
SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEEPENS. NUDGED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AS LOCAL MODEL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST. STRONG CAP
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN OBSTACLE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT... AND THUS CURRENT ISOLATED COVERAGE LOOKS
REASONABLE. LAPS DATA INDICATES THE CAP IS WEAKER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE OUR FOCUS FOR OUR
HIGHEST POPS.

Be interesting to see if the SPC moves their risk area further south. I doubt it will with the strong cap in place but who knows.

Those are definitely awesome pics westsidesooner...but that one at the AF Academy has got to be a color lense...yes?

They're not my pics just some random ones I found on the internet . But I doubt that they're doctored. The ones I have (yet to download form my camera I guess) are almost as orange. The combination of the sun angle and all the humidity/suspended dust make for some great color.

The OFB is building towering cu from this mornings OFB to west of Wichita. Should be a new watch out soon for southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. I'm guessing.

Several of the storms riding the OFB/wf in southern Kansas and Missouri are already Tornado warned. There is a new (1 hour ago) MD for norhtern Oklahoma.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1006.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS AND PARTS OF NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091834Z - 092000Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
FROM ERN FINNEY COUNTY ESEWD THROUGH FORD...EDWARDS AND AT LEAST
INTO PRATT COUNTY. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE MERGING OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ATTENDANT TO KS/MO
MCS WITH NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT. HERE...LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
HAS BEEN ENHANCED...BUT THE LIGHT ELY/ENELY WINDS IN THE COLD AIR
SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY SWD PUSH. AS SUCH...COMPOSITE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE INITIATION OF STORMS WITH ANY MATURE
SUPERCELL MOTION LIKELY REMAINING LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
CURRENTLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT IT IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT ANY CORRESPONDING TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP.\

Edit: Interesting chaser convergance going on near Wichita. http://www.tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php If anything happens we should get a good look at it.

The thermonuclear cap is well in place. What a waste. Temps around 90s, dews in the 70s, instability is very high to extreme, and dryline coming in from the west. Needless to say if we didn't have the cap today, it would be a wild day. Of course that doesn't mean one storm won't be able to break through this evening...but it'll be rough.

Venture, what will it take to get rid of the cap?! We have everything in place to dissolve the cap, but nothing is working!

Tower.......small t-shower trying to go up in western Blaine County. At least the atmosphere is trying....

Venture, what will it take to get rid of the cap?! We have everything in place to dissolve the cap, but nothing is working!

Strong cold front and some upper level cooling. We have neither right now. Cooling will come as the sun goes down, so that may help...but the optimum time for significant severe weather will be past.

We'll see...Blaine County storm is now severe. We'll see how it holds up. If storms can puncture the cap, they will go severe with in 5 minutes give or take, much like that one did.

Tornado Watch is getting extended...

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 358
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

OKC011-047-073-081-083-093-103-119-100300-
/O.EXA.KOUN.TO.A.0358.000000T0000Z-090610T0300Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 358 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
PAYNE

IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

GARFIELD NOBLE

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

BLAINE MAJOR

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHANDLER...ENID...FAIRVIEW...
GUTHRIE...KINGFISHER...PERRY...STILLWATER AND WATONGA.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/kvnx-current.png

Snap shot at 6:20 PM...tons of boundaries out there as these storms are collapsing and new ones forming along the boundaries they put off.

New MCD pointing out the boundary mess we have now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1011.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NRN OK...SRN MO...NRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 357...358...359...

VALID 092322Z - 100015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
357...358...359...CONTINUES.

COMPLEX ARRAY OF BOUNDARIES AND NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK...WHILE MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER
SRN MO. NO LESS THAN HALF A DOZEN NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF DRY SURGE FROM NEAR DDC...ARCING SEWD INTO SCNTRL KS...THEN
SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO KINGFISHER COUNTY OK. MOST OF THE STORMS
SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE
OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY THE ACTIVITY OVER OK. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS
THE EVOLVING SUPERCELL NEAR DDC ALONG/JUST NORTH OF STATIONARY
FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN KS
WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED. THIS
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO BACK SIDE OF MO
MCS WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG SWD TO NEAR THE AR BORDER. MESOSCALE
FEATURES APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS SRN KS...OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW.. 06/09/2009

Overlaid the front and outflow boundaries on this. The radar is a couple minutes old now of this posting.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/kvnx-633pm-of.gif

And no more updates. Sad. The air is still so humid, so warm, even after the sun has gone to visit some foreign countries. No storms. Nothing for the OKC metro.

Discussion from SPC on today (Wednesday)...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD BELT OF 40-50KT W/WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM COAST-TO-COAST TODAY
BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND NRN BORDER
STATES...AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SRN TX AND THE ADJACENT
GULF OF MEXICO. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM.

AT THE SFC...A COMPLEX QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...FRACTURED IN
A NUMBER OF AREAS BY DIURNAL/EPISODIC CONVECTION...EXTENDS FROM ERN
CO FRONT RANGE SEWD TO KS/OK...AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST.

TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION ALONG/NEAR THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL COMPLEX FACTORS TODAY
INCLUDING: 1)FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS A WEAKER LEADING
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MO EWD TO THE OH VALLEY...2)
PLACEMENT/LOCATION OF RESIDUAL STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVES/ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT...AND 3) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXES/DISCONTINUITIES INCLUDING
RESIDUAL DRYLINE INFLUENCE ANALYZED ACROSS TX PNHDL/WRN OK...AND
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE SITUATED FROM TX NWD/NEWD TO THE OZARKS.

...SRN PLAINS...
IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT/CHARACTER ACROSS THIS LARGE REGION TODAY GIVEN
COMPLEXITIES ALREADY MENTIONED. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING FROM AZ/NM WAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD REGION. RECENT DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO
INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM TRANS-PECOS AREA NEWD ALONG
THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WAS OVERCOMING DRIER AIR
IN THE WAKE OF DRYLINE SURGE THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.

STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS TX/OK...AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
SITUATED ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND NRN OK...EXPECT MORE VIGOROUS AND
ORGANIZED STORMS TO BECOME MOST PREVALENT NEAR THESE FEATURES AND
BOUNDARIES. STORM INTENSITY IN TX MAY BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM TX PNHDL
ACROSS WRN OK...AND NEAR THE FRONT IN OK/SRN KS WHERE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
MORNING.

STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. STORM
SCALE AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES YET TO DEVELOP/OCCUR WILL PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS REALIZED.
IN ADDITION TO WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL...UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS OR TWO APPEARS LIKELY
FROM KS TO TX LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE DEPICTED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS STORMS INCREASE AND ORGANIZE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

Venture has brought life to this thread. A glimmer of hope. Will we see rain? We can only pray.

Looks like another round of c-vection coming up from sw Texas near Lubbock. If nothing else the cirrus canopy from those storms might put a damper on this afternoons activity. I was really looking forward to a clear sky this morning to allow for more heating. Will wait and see how that activity in Texas reacts when it gets to Oklahoma.

Hey V. The storms in sw Texas seem to be heading into an area of drier air. Looking at the mesonet it appears that the cold front and/or dryline are approx. from Perry to Piedmont to Binger to Altus. There is some moisture recovery in far NW OK.. How do you think this drier air will affect our chances for storms this afternoon?

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png?1244647600

New MD out for southwest Oklahoma for this afternoon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1021.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101544Z - 101715Z

SEVERE STORM THREAT CURRENTLY OVER W TX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA TODAY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM PVW TO SW OF CDS AS OF 1530Z IS
MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD AT 30-40 KT WITH EXTRAPOLATION TAKING IT N OF
WW 363 BETWEEN 1600-1630Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SWRN TX AND ERN NM
WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NOTED INCREASE IN
MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS AT TUCUMCARI NM. COMPARISON OF 12Z ELP AND MAF
SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THAT CONSIDERABLE TROPOSPHERIC COOLING IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE STRONGER
CAP OBSERVED FROM FWD THROUGH OUN.

LATEST TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT OVER W-CNTRL OK WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK. WHILE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING...THIS
MOISTENING COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS AREA WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.
THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE-BASED ALONG AND E/SE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

I think Venture is at work. Looking forward for constant updates when he gets home.

I hope he doesnt have to work to late or he may miss it. The storms out west look to be gaining some momentum wind wise with widestpread gusts over 50 mph. Canadian county now severe warned for winds up to 65 mph. Looks like we may be setting up for a pretty good squall line/daytime derecho.

Strongest winds attm appear to be near Clinton/weatherford and near Altus.

It appears that a portion of the system is breaking up a bit. There's an area of clearing that's increasing.

The most severe, it looks like, according to the rainfall on radar is way down SW crossing the border.

Wind gusts in the past hour

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gust1hr.gif?1244658205

I'm here...just "snore". LOL

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1026.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL AND NWRN TX INTO WRN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364...

VALID 101835Z - 102000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364
CONTINUES.

THROUGH 20Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
ERN HALF OF WW AREA.

MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS
LOCATED ALONG ERN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGER CONVECTIVE
SHIELD...NAMELY FROM WILBARGER COUNTY TX AND JACKSON/TILLMAN
COUNTIES OK NEWD INTO CADDO AND BLAINE COUNTIES OK AS OF 1820Z. 18Z
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING HAVE
OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND N-CNTRL INTO NERN OK WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 80S. MOREOVER...ONGOING STORMS
ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE WRN EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

THUS FAR...ASOS AND OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NUMBER OF
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OBSERVED BY
UPSTREAM VWPS AND PROFILERS AND THE DECREASING STABILITY...EXPECT
TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WRN INTO CNTRL OK. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH HAIL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES.

Any idea for potential of storms in the metro tonight - specifically the downtown Film Row area about, oh, say 7:30 - 11 p.m.?

Just woke up now. So, another lousy day for the metro? Lil to no rain?

Just woke up now. So, another lousy day for the metro? Lil to no rain?

You didnt miss anything!! The stroms were interesting....just not in central Ok. Unfortunately there was a power bump around 2:20 yeasterday which knocked me offline for the evening. AARRGGHH. A friend of mine on the southside had the same problem....anyone else experience it?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0387_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 386...

DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING BOW ECHO OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRACK INTO WESTERN AR LATER
TODAY...AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

It's too soon! I want it in the area after 5pm!

So V. You think this mornings MCS going just north of the meto will drag an outflow boundary through killing the chance of storms later???

........................................Again

So V. You think this mornings MCS going just north of the meto will drag an outflow boundary through killing the chance of storms later???

........................................Again

Don't jinx it! :sofa:

Yes, please jinx it (sorry, Thunder), and yes, please storms, stay away. Too many events reliant upon good outdoor weather tonight. Or stick to early morning rain and storms. Then we can both have our way.

Im torn Fritter. As much as I like storms I am in the process of trying to find a leak in our backyard stream liner. So I need it to stay dry for a few days. :whiteflag

From this storm Stillwater got hail maxing out between 2 and 3 inches in diameter. There's already been enough hail there this year.

So V. You think this mornings MCS going just north of the meto will drag an outflow boundary through killing the chance of storms later???

Shouldn't kill chances. The thing that hurt us yesterday was cloud cover. Today we don't really have that problem south of I-40. I would say most of the area north of I-40 is hose today, but the front is still here...so anything is possible. Another boundary moving into the NW part of the state dropping down pretty fast. As that interacts with the front, could see a focused area for development.

We'll have to see. If the cold pool kills things behind this MCS, then it'll be a quiet afternoon/evening. Eventually something is going to give and chances are looking up for Sunday morning and Monday morning right now.

http://i206.photobucket.com/albums/bb290/heathercondict/hail.jpg

That's a grown man's hand in the pic after it cleared off a bit. We had a bunch of baseball-sized hail in Stillwater about 9:15 this morning

Yeah V I was watching that next boundary as well....its really moving along.

Looks like Tulsa is taking it on the chin right now. I expect to see some minor damage coming out of the northeast part of the state this morning. When I woke up around 630 I almost jumped in the truck and headed up to stillwater to meet the line......lol.....Im getting desperate for a good storm photo this season. I hear the shelf cloud was VERY impressive up there this a.m.

Eventually something is going to give and chances are looking up for Sunday morning and Monday morning right now.
You expecting more nightime MCS's then?

EDIT: After seeing Heathers pic Im kinda glad I didnt go now....hail and truck dont mix well