Chance for late evening storms across the state. Models indicating two areas where storms will converge and form complexes that will move across the state. First one will be across Northern Oklahoma and will move towards the Tulsa area. Second will be in West Central Oklahoma and will move towards the southern part of the Metro area.

The 2nd complex is sort of questionably if it comes together, but wouldn't doubt that there would at least be some storms around. Most of the activity looks like it will be late evening/overnight/early Saturday.

More details tomorrow...

Current Day 2 Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IS MIDLEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTENSIFY CONSIDERABLY WHILE TRANSLATING GENERALLY EWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE DEVELOPING FROM ERN ND ENEWD INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE CNTRL DAKOTAS SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD...EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 16/12Z. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT FROM THE MID MO VALLEY ESEWD TO ALONG THE OH RIVER WILL RETREAT SLOWLY NWD IN ADVANCE OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SECONDARY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AT THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C PER KM/ ASSOCIATED WITH EML COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500-3500 J/KG. WHILE REGION WILL RESIDE TO THE S/SW OF ANY APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND FRONTAL ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL... MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN TX.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE MARGINS OF THAT SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ROTATION /I.E. AROUND 30 KT THROUGH 6 KM/. BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUING INTO FRI NIGHT ACROSS OK.

Is this ever going to end? What did we get today, 10 minutes of sunshine?

Starting Sunday should have a long dry stretch.

Is this ever going to end? What did we get today, 10 minutes of sunshine?

Were you NOT here in 2007 when much of central and eastern Oklahoma got over 60" of rain during that year?

Is this ever going to end?

Never! :LolLolLol

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_wind.gif

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1256 am cdt fri may 15 2009

valid 151200z - 161200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the srn and cntrl plains into the middle ms and oh valleys...

...synopsis...

Progressive upper trough over the nrn rockies will reach the upper ms valley by friday evening and the upper great lakes friday night.
Attendant lee cyclone will advance ewd to mn by late afternoon with trailing cold front extending swwd through the cntrl plains. Dryline will extend through wrn tx into swrn ks where it will intersect the swd advancing cold front. Frontal boundary currently extending from ok ewd through the tn valley will lift nwd through the middle ms and oh valleys during the day. Slow moving vort max over nrn mexico will move into wrn tx during the afternoon.

...cntrl and srn plains...

Mid-upper 60s boundary layer dewpoints have advected nwwd beneath 8+ c/km 700-500 mb lapse rates...resulting in a reservoir of strong instability over the srn plains. The atmosphere will destabilize through much of ks as moisture advects farther nwd in wake of retreating warm front. Mlcape from 2500-3000 j/kg will be likely from portions of ks through the srn plains as the boundary layer warms friday afternoon. Storms should initiate by mid-late afternoon along progressive cold front across ks and develop sewd. Much of this region will remain on srn fringe of stronger wlys with bulk shear generally aob 35 kt. Given potential for strong updraft accelerations due to steep lapse rates and large cape within the modestly sheared environment...some storms will likely develop supercell structures and become capable of producing very large hail. As the low level jet shifts away from the region...0-1 km hodographs will not be particularly large. However...strong updraft accelerations associated with supercells developing in vicinity of the boundary suggest isolated tornadoes will also be possible through early-mid evening. Storms may evolve into more linear modes overnight.

Other more high based storms are expected along the dryline where vertical shear will be somewhat weaker. Large hail and isolated damaging wind will be the main threats with this activity.

As long as it holds off through Memorial Day weekend. I'm going to Lake Tenkiller!

Updated outlook. Graphics above are current.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX AND WRN/NRN OK NE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD AS TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN RCKYS CONTINUES TO THE UPR MS VLY AND PHASES WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER SK.
FARTHER S...A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK E/ENE FROM THE SRN RCKYS TO THE MID MS VLY...AND A VORT OVER NRN MEXICO WILL DRIFT E INTO SW TX.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD MOVE NE TO THE MN ARROWHEAD BY THIS EVE AS TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCELERATE SSE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW OVER SRN KS/MO WILL CONTINUE NNE INTO THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS LATER TODAY...WHILE DRY LINE REMAINS MORE OR LESS STNRY FROM SW KS INTO W TX.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 4000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY FROM ERN KS WSW INTO NRN/WRN OK AS MID/UPR 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS SPREAD NWD BENEATH DEEP EML. STORMS SHOULD FORM BY MID-LATE AFTN ALONG PROGRESSIVE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER KS...WITH MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY EXPECTED A BIT LATER SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO NW OK/W TX.

MODERATE /40+ KT/ 500 MB WLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS KS...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 25 KTS IN OK AND TX. COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS IN KS...BEFORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT AND STORM MERGERS THAT RESULT AS IT OVERTAKES PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FAVOR EVOLUTION INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE STORMS COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. FARTHER S...SIZABLE DEGREE OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVERGENCE...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS ALSO SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ...DESPITE WEAKER BULK SHEAR. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH MID EVE...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FACT THAT TREND TOWARD LINEAR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS MARKED THAN FARTHER N. SOME OF THE OK/TX SE STORM CLUSTERS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY SAT...MOVING SLOWLY S OR SSE WITH TIME.

Just a quick note, most activity will hold out today until later this evening. However, a couple short term models are indicating that there may be some isolated development early this afternoon across Central Oklahoma. Something to watch for if it verifies.

Were you NOT here in 2007 when much of central and eastern Oklahoma got over 60" of rain during that year?

Yes, I was here, and yes I remember. I didn't try to grow tomatoes that year!

As long as it holds off through Memorial Day weekend. I'm going to Lake Tenkiller!

You know it always storms on memorial day weekend. I use to keep track, and at one point OKC had the tornado sirens go off over memorial day weekend 3 years in a row. :sofa:

That was a few years back however. I'm having friends come in from out of state this year.....so I hope memorial day weekend is calm.

Thunderstorms are backbuilding from ne thru central Kansas, and stroms are trying to fire up in the ne Texas panhandle. Here we go again.

Yup, was just gonna post that. I see the lone, small cell going up in Texas. Look closely near Dodge City, Kansas.

This could be an interesting night. Any plans, Karrie?

Yeah I saw that too. The cold front is very visible on dodge city radar lined up ne-sw and slinking back into the northern Texas PH.

Hey V....if you're here. I noticed a "distrubance?" racing ne across sw Oklahoma on radar. Any chance that will fire something ahead of the line?

Models were indicating that it may try to fire something in central OK around this time, but CIN was still pretty high over the eastern 2/3rds of Oklahoma right now. Also the cloud field is pretty sparse right now.

Oh wait...tornado watch incoming...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0835.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN OK AND NERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151944Z - 152015Z

MUCH OF ERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN OK...AND POSSIBLY THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...WILL REQUIRE A TORNADO WATCH SOON.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH ERN NEB TO NORTH CENTRAL KS...EAST OF CNK...TO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...THEN EXTENDING WSWWD THROUGH THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...AND NWWD THROUGH NERN NM TO SERN CO. DRY LINE HAS MIXED EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT IN ROBERTS COUNTY TX WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CU. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN KS /W/NW OF TOP/ ALONG SWRN PERIPHERY OF NRN MO/IA MCS...WHILE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM GAGE COUNTY NEB TO JUST EAST OF SALINE COUNTY KS.

AIR MASS FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO CENTRAL/NERN KS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /35-50 KT/...MAINLY ACROSS KS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO BE WEAKER INTO NWRN OK...STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKNESS IN THE SHEAR AND ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INTO NWRN OK. DESPITE WEAK UPPER FORCING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KS/OK...THE STRONGER CAP SHOULD RESULT IN LIKELIHOOD FOR DISCRETE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE RAPIDLY ONCE THEY FORM GIVEN THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY.

So anyways...instability across the western part of the state into the panhandles is very high to extreme right now. SPC composite indices do show that we aren't quite there yet for ideal tornado or supercell conditions. The amount of instability though should be plenty to allow for some huge hail and a couple tornadoes.

Wwus30 kwns 151959
saw7
spc aww 151959
ww 307 tornado ks ok tx 152005z - 160300z axis..70 statute miles north and south of line..
70sw gag/gage ok/ - 50nne cnu/chanute ks/ ..aviation coords.. 60nm n/s /51ene ama - 30w bum/ hail surface and aloft..3 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025.

Lat...lon 36580065 39349512 37319512 34560065

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0307_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 305...WW 306...

DISCUSSION...EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BOTH NEAR FRONT AND DRY LINE
OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAP
MAY SUPPORT DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING...DESPITE
THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...SLOW
SSEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES. SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGER
WITH POSSIBLY A GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO ERN KS. OVERALL
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER MCS...POSSIBLY COMPOSED OF SEVERAL
SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHOES SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE MID EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

WT 0307
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 70%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 29025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Thanks for breaking it down... can you tell us about the Metro yet?

Isolated storm in the panhandle has now gone severe.

Chaser video: http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=markus.pfister&uid=338

i am so glad that we have up to date weather due to some of our members keeping us up to date. My boss is driving to kanasas city this evening and i mention to her to read this, she will be going up through wichita

Thanks for breaking it down... can you tell us about the Metro yet?

Unless the area to the SW develops, Metro is probably good until after 7PM...probably later unless things speed up. I know, another overnight mess.

One of the short term models holds things until 9-11PM tonight and the storms will likely be severe.

KOCO's chasers is racing toward these storms.

FAST UNIT 2 (mms://live.newsonemedia.com/unit2)

FAST UNIT 11 (mms://live.newsonemedia.com/unit11)

FAST UNIT 13 (mms://live.newsonemedia.com/unit13)

If it doesn't appear, then they're not online, try again later.

At the time of this post, all 3 of them is online.

Hey V....if you're here. I noticed a "distrubance?" racing ne across sw Oklahoma on radar. Any chance that will fire something ahead of the line?

I notice that too, here.

Oklahoma 1km Resolution Radar and Satellite Imagery (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Oklahoma)

That storm in NE TX panhandle really did explode in a hurry! :omg:

My boss is driving to kanasas city this evening and i mention to her to read this, she will be going up through wichita

I wouldnt wanna make that drive today. :ohno: My sister lives in KC so I've been watching their radar pretty closely too. There could be some flooding problems along the turnpike and in KC tonight.

Topeka radar loop: NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Topeka, KS (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=twx&loop=yes)

Storms continue in two clusters/lines. One is from Seiling NE to Helena to Nash to Wakita. Gust front exists ahead of this entire line, so tornado risk is very very low, unless the storms can overcome the outflow. This area is acting like it will soon bow out and become a strong wind machine and pose a widespread wind threat.

Second area is from Leeder to Roll to Reydon and back into the TX panhandle the SW. Part of this complex is the monster classic supercell that produced a few in the panhandle. This area was moving SSE but is now moving ESE. Expect this to form the second complex that will move towards the southern Metro.

SW Oklahoma is current a prime spot for storms to intensify even more and the southern complex will need to be watched. I expect the Northern complex to eventually speed up in forward propagation and turn more SE.

Strong nearly severe storm around Longdale moving SE tornado Hitchcock and eventually Watonga and Kingfisher. Another severe storm SW of Taloga and then the line from south of Leedey to Cheyenne and Sweetwater.

The northern complex has weekend, but the tail end of it is that strong storm. Some sign is may fill in between that and the southern complex. Southern complex is moving more SE now.

Far south complex near Childress is moving east in in far southwest Oklahoma with large hail and strong winds.

FYI, Gary England was on Bill O'Reilly just a moment ago talking about the weather in OK. It will be on again tonight at 10:00 for those who are interested in watching it.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0840.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF OK...PORTIONS OF NWRN TX...SERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 307...

VALID 160011Z - 160115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 307 CONTINUES.

A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 01Z FOR MOST OF OK AND PORTIONS OF NWRN TX.

AS OF 0000Z...RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN ELONGATED QLCS FROM ANDERSON COUNTY KS SWWD TO MAJOR COUNTY OK. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE QLCS AND A PREVIOUSLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THAT HAD RECENTLY WEAKENED OVER WHEELER COUNTY TX. TEMPERATURE PERTURBATIONS IN COLD POOLS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 DEG F /FALLING FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO MIDDLE 60S AS THE QLCS HAS PASSED/. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL WLYS ARE MODEST /20-25 KT AT 6 KM AGL IN AREA PROFILERS/...STRENGTH OF COLD POOLS AND MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF OK AHEAD OF THIS LINE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG...SHOULD RESULT IN AN ORGANIZED MCS EVOLVING EWD ACROSS SERN KS TO THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK/NWRN TX. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME THE PREDOMINANT THREAT WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE HAIL CORES AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

yup I just watched the end of it... he did well from what I saw. But, maybe we should focus on making it through the night with no damage....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0310_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 305...WW 306...WW 307...WW 308...WW 309...

DISCUSSION...THE BROKEN BAND OF FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE OTHER DRYLINE CONVECTION SPREADS EWD INTO SW OK/NW TX. THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING REVEALS STRONG INSTABILITY S AND E OF THE ONGOING STORMS...AS WELL AS A SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT WILL REQUIRE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT TO BREACH. IT APPEARS THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MERGING CLUSTERS TO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING MCS NEAR OR JUST S OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WRN INTO CENTRAL OK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.

eeeeeeek

I'm going to save screen captures every now and then from GR2AE to show you high-res radar for OKC here: http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/radar/okc.png

Complex 1 - the North one is entering the metro now and will be impacting Guthrie over to Kingfisher any minute. Gust front is running about 10 miles ahead of the storms, winds with the gust front appear to be 20-30 mph and will be out of the North. Hail doesn't look like a big issue: http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/radar/okc-hail.png And velocities don't look too terrible but some embedded wind gusts over 55 mph can be expected.

Complex 2 - This is the one in the West Metro. Gust front ahead of it about 5-8 miles. Winds about 50-60 mph as well, and the bow shape indicates it may kick up some much higher gusts. No hail with this bow.

Complex 3 - This is SW Oklahoma...and it is merging with Complex 2 and will just be a continuance of the line.

My ghetto wunderground.com animated gif style radar showed circulation on the hangy-down part of the radar near kinfisher...

What say you?

My ghetto wunderground.com animated gif style radar showed circulation on the hangy-down part of the radar near kinfisher...

What say you?

This is a rotation product from the software I use. Nothing really in the area of any low level rotation at all. Typically you want an area of the light green and blue into the upper level colors to get concerned.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/radar/kingfisher.png

Couple hail areas now showing up.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/radar/hail.png

Orange area in the image has confirmed report of 0.88" hail.

This image will be refreshed, so feel free to reload the same post.
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/radar/radar921pm.png

Majority of storms are now below severe limits.

Got off work, wind picked up, really windy. Pulled into the parking, big sprinkles.

Removed images. Hail and wind threat have decreased.

Storm reports to go with the icons you see on the maps.

1031 PM HAIL MOORE 35.34N 97.49W
05/15/2009 E1.00 INCH CLEVELAND OK EMERGENCY MNGR

NE 12TH AND EASTERN

1029 PM HAIL OKLAHOMA CITY 35.47N 97.51W
05/15/2009 E1.00 INCH OKLAHOMA OK AMATEUR RADIO

AT 35TH AND CLASSEN

1020 PM HAIL OKLAHOMA CITY 35.47N 97.51W
05/15/2009 E1.00 INCH OKLAHOMA OK AMATEUR RADIO

AT SOONER RD AND 23RD ST

1012 PM HAIL EL RENO 35.53N 97.96W
05/15/2009 E0.88 INCH CANADIAN OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

1002 PM HAIL EDMOND 35.65N 97.48W
05/15/2009 E0.75 INCH OKLAHOMA OK PUBLIC

0910 PM HAIL CIMARRON CITY 35.89N 97.60W
05/15/2009 E0.88 INCH LOGAN OK EMERGENCY MNGR

Pea sized hail falling in Del City.

Took out the low value echoes on the radar to make it a little easier to see what is actually going on without all the clutter.

As long as it holds off through Memorial Day weekend. I'm going to Lake Tenkiller!


You know it always storms on memorial day weekend. I use to keep track, and at one point OKC had the tornado sirens go off over memorial day weekend 3 years in a row. :sofa:

That was a few years back however. I'm having friends come in from out of state this year.....so I hope memorial day weekend is calm.

:omg:

Everyone isn't gonna like this...


Our next chance for rain could come over Memorial Day weekend.

Possible Memorial Day Weekend Washout (http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com/)

FYI, Gary England was on Bill O'Reilly just a moment ago talking about the weather in OK. It will be on again tonight at 10:00 for those who are interested in watching it.

Gary England is a weather reader.
And he needs to work on using the damn computer, showing the streets.
Please god/buddha/or zeus, let him retire soon.

From what it sounds like...he has 3-4 years left in his contract and then he'll likely step down. Or we can hope. He is really losing his edge. I am really liking how Rick Mitchell has developed over the last few years. When I first saw him moving here 10 years ago, he seemed really green and uncomfortable. But with KOCO stepping up with add'l money for the helicopter and more chasers - it seems to be improving. I also like the fact that Andy Wallace is there now. He was great when I saw him in Lawton and is a huge asset for them. The new girl though, not so sure about her. Rusty I didn't like at first though, but I do now.

I think the only worry is who does KWTV replace Gary with. Jed is too casual and hokey - he fits the morning routine, not the chief spot. Mike Armstrong has potential, but still 5-10 years away I think. And their new guy (can you say "hey gurl, you like my hair") is way too young and still not comfortable in front of the camera. I think they'll go outside the current family.

Zach Daniels I thought had the personality to make it work, if they can pry him off the East Coast now.
Mike Morgan was always rumored as being offered a crap ton of cash to come over, but I don't see that happening.
David Payne is a chaser at heart, but not a Chief.
Andy Wallace from KOCO may be an option - he has the Chief experience from Lawton.
Travis Meyer from Channel 6 in Tulsa might be an option since it is Griffin station.
Dave Oliver from Amarillo may be another.

We'll have to see, but the KWTV job is one of the prime ones in the nation for a TV met, so it'll get flooded with talent.