I'm going to hold off on the pretty pictures for right now, but will post the Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks. Day 2's focus will be western Oklahoma, but like today, the weather will probably make it into the Metro but maybe not severe. Day 3 looks more widespread for severe weather, but nothing out of control though at this time.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINSAND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WRN STATES AS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE SHOULD BIN PLACE FROM THE VICINITY OF WRN NEB SWD INTO FAR WRN KS AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IN NW OK AND SW KS SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE SETS UP AND UPON HOW MANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES...MID-MS VALLEY...OZARKS...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS...

...UPPER TO MID-MS VALLEY/OZARKS/SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN STATES AS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CREATE A LARGE WARM SECTOR FROM THE SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER-MS VALLEY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM NCNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS MO INTO SE KS. MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS EWD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY...NRN OZARKS INTO ERN OK WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD CERTAINTY CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE ISSUANCE OF A MODERATE RISK IN IL AND MO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARAMETERS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF INTENSE STORMS. SWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED DUE TO WEAKER FORCING. A GRADUAL DROP OFF IN SEVERE REPORT COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS FOR THIS REASON.

..BROYLES.. 05/11/2009

Severe weather risk will go up later today in SW Oklahoma, but a more widespread severe threat will exist tomorrow across the entire area.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ACCOMPANYING 90-100 KT JET MAX
WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WED.
BY EVENING TIME...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWD ALONG TO THE IA/IL BORDER AND THEN SWWD
INTO NRN OK/TX PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT...PROGGED TO STRETCH EXTEND
FROM WRN IA SEWD INTO NERN AR AT DAYBREAK...WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
SRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE DAY 2. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FEATURES SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL AND NERN MO.

...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR AND OK...
THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE IN THE DAY. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FROM 7-8C/KM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
THE MAIN FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF THIS REGION...STRONG HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AFTER 21Z. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE MOSTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE INITIAL THREAT. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...A FEW HOURS
AFTER INITIATION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINEAR
SYSTEM AND MOVE S/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL
JET AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE
STORMS AND VERY LARGE HAIL...SO PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY BE
UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

This is slightly off topic... but is anyone else having problem accessing the NWS enhanced weather page? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php

yea...it has been down all day (or at least I have not been able to get to it all day)!

This is slightly off topic... but is anyone else having problem accessing the NWS enhanced weather page? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php

Venture overloaded it. :LolLolLol

Another kinda off topic... I subscribed to the alert texts (I saw in another thread). Has anyone else done that? Its kind of annoying because I wanted to save their number as "Weather Alert" but they use a different number to text me each time. So, I got 4 or 5 alerts today because of the severe weather this morning, all from different numbers.

Luke, try KFOR? I'm gonna try the Text Alerts from them.

4Warn Text Alert Sign-up - KFOR (http://www.kfor.com/kfor-4warn-text-alert-frame,0,5949973.framedurl)

4Warn Phone Alert Sign-up - KFOR (http://www.kfor.com/kfor-4warn-phone-alert-frame,0,7342361.framedurl)

Whatever the problem with the NWS site is it is also affecting the Tulsa and the Amarillo sites. All the others seem to be working fine. I hope they get it up and running before this evening. Grrrrrrr

The warm front is now crossing the red river with temps in the upper 80's and low 90's in north Texas. Im really tired of this cool grey weather.......and so are my plants......come on wf.

Special Bulletin Message


Many forecast office pages are currently unavailable due to maintenance being performed today. Down time may last until about 5pm Central time. We regret any inconvenience.

We have a Moderate Risk for Wednesday at this time mainly from the metro toward the north, a lil to the west, and much of the NE portion of the state. Isolated tornadoes isn't ruled out, but the threat will mainly be large hails, frequent lightnings, and damaging winds.

So much for the back online by 5 huh. :poke:

Severe storms now south of Amarillo with a severe t-storm watch for most of west Texas. Also a severe cluster diving south thru NW Arkansas. I wonder where V2 is today?

We have a Moderate Risk for Wednesday at this time mainly from the metro toward the north, a lil to the west, and much of the NE portion of the state. Isolated tornadoes isn't ruled out, but the threat will mainly be large hails, frequent lightnings, and damaging winds.

Not official yet. Question tomorrow ill be the strong cap and little upper air forcing. Not saying they won't upgrade, but local media is doing their own thing right now.

Yeah, I was hoping the OUN site would be back up...oh well, hopefully it will be back up any minute.

ugh... what 17 days of clouds and rain, rain, rain... ?

I'm having a Vitamin D deficiency! I'm depressed as hell and I'm pale as a ghost. lol

I could never, ever, ever adapt to Seattle.

Welcome to growing up in the Great Lakes in the winter, where the sun comes out maybe 3-4 times a month from October through March. At least it is warm here. ; )

I love this weather. I don't know that I could handle it year round.. I like that we have 4 distinct seasons.

Karried, can you make it so the Current Events, specifically, these weather threads come up on the "Recent Threads" on the main page.

ugh... what 17 days of clouds and rain, rain, rain... ?

I'm having a Vitamin D deficiency! I'm depressed as hell and I'm pale as a ghost. lol

I could never, ever, ever adapt to Seattle.

Not that I love this weather, but I'll take this over a cold, windy, dry day any day of the week.

Oklahoma weather is so strange. After the Feb storms we had, I remember thinking we were in for a bad spring. Nothing but cool and wet. I know, I know, I shouldn't have said that.

Large supercells moving into SW Oklahoma. Gawd...raiding on WoW is getting in the way of things here. LOL

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0292_radar_init_resize.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 845 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 85 MILES SOUTH OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 289...WW 290...WW 291...

DISCUSSION...MERGING RIGHT AND LEFT MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY
SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH THE CAP STRENGTHENS WITH EWD
EXTENT...RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
STORM MERGERS. DAMAGING WINDS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT
BURSTS/ AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEFORE THE
STORM WEAKEN IN A FEW HOURS.

Not official yet. Question tomorrow ill be the strong cap and little upper air forcing. Not saying they won't upgrade, but local media is doing their own thing right now.

Yeah, I was hoping the OUN site would be back up...oh well, hopefully it will be back up any minute.

It could be that the NWS had already sent the info to the media and that it is not posted online where we view since most of the contents on the NWS site is still down.

I did read a message on the NWS site saying Moderate Risk for tomorrow. Probably the map isn't updated, Venture? All I saw was the news in text.

Luke, I suscribed to the Text Alerts from KFOR and I picked only Oklahoma County along with specific warning alerts that I want. It's neat and you should try it, Luke. We will probably also need to add the next few counties that is touching the south side of Oklahoma county, because we live on the south side.

It could be that the NWS had already sent the info to the media and that it is not posted online where we view since most of the contents on the NWS site is still down.

I did read a message on the NWS site saying Moderate Risk for tomorrow. Probably the map isn't updated, Venture? All I saw was the news in text.



Nope not yet. There is a mod risk tomorrow, for MO and IL only for now. There is the possibility they'll upgrade a portion of the area.

Storms approaching the metro, but not sure how much longer they can hold. One of them seem to be gunnin' for Karrie.

Last update for the night. For Thursday, the entire metro area has been placed in the Moderate Risk for the day. Main threat will be extremely large hail with storms that are able to bust through the cap.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
ON THE LARGE SCALE...PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY WILL BE TIED TO A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND REACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SURGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

...MIDWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
INITIALLY...ON THE NOSE OF A RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND EASTERN FRINGE OF A PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/INDIANA. AT LEAST SOME OF THESE ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING.

ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A NARROW PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR ACROSS MO/SOUTHEAST IA INTO ADJACENT IL. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP...WITH A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS/BOWS POSSIBLE BENEATH 50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH. THIS THREAT COULD BE HEIGHTENED IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AND/OR ANY REMNANT MODIFIED OUTFLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPI VALLEY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MO/SOUTHEAST IA INTO IL. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY ULTIMATELY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS STORMS CONGEAL/RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM MO/SOUTHEAST KS INTO OK...AND PERHAPS IN VICINITY OF THE DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER. EVEN WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW AT THIS LATITUDE...VERY STEEP MID LAPSE RATES/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE/POTENTIALLY SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AS AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY INCREASES ACROSS TX...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THESE TSTMS COULD CONSOLIDATE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...WITH HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS OK/AR INTO THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX VICINITY.

Short-Med term model guidance tonight indicates that if storms are able to form, they will be after 7PM for the metro area and more likely into the overnight hours. We'll have to see. Timing has been a little off.

All models are in agreement that instability will be extreme tomorrow across Oklahoma as long as skies clear. Tonight's storms may leave an outflow boundary across Central or Eastern Oklahoma that may have a role to play tomorrow, we'll just have to wait and see. Currently most models don't develop precip much further west than the western sides of the metro area. Most of the major models do not account for the ongoing activity tonight, and that could throw things off a bit. The WRF-NMM run for SPC however did account for it, but had the timing about 5 hours off.

It has storms initiated in western Oklahoma around 7PM, and additional storms along the cold front up in southern Kansas at the same time. It has the storms along the dryline from the west organizing into a complex moving through the Metro around 10PM. The storms quickly move off to the east with in a couple hours.

We'll see how it plays out. More later in the morning. Here is a quick look at the WRF-NMM simulated radar image for the 10PM time frame.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/refd_1000m_f27.gif

Update Day 1 to go with the graphics above (the outlook graphics are linked to the images that will automatically refresh with new outlooks).

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF OK...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST AR...MUCH OF MO...AND MUCH OF IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 90-100 KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX NOSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...TRAILING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT AND THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO ITS SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE AREA WILL SEE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD.

...KS/OK/AR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER OK THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...AND NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION...BUT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. BY EARLY EVENING...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND THIS TIME ALONG THE COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IMPROVING RAPIDLY DURING THIS TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES...LARGE SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOME POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY AFTER DARK. STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MCS AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF WESTERN MO/AR.

Before I think about todays storms I still have to recover from last night. I had just got to bed last night when I heard the wind pick up around 1am, so of course I had to get up and watch it. We lost a lot of branches, (one fell across our koi pond, luckily no punctures....I hope) the patio umbrella was shredded, and half of our redbud broke away. AARRGGHH. Luckily no major damage that Ive seen so far but it'll be a big mess to clean up this evening. Peak wind gust of 74mph last night at wiley post, and it blew between 60-70 mph at our house for over an hour. I was standing on the porch watching the trees bend and break and finally had to put on goggles to protect my eyes from all the dust and debris flying around. Finally got back to bed around 3am........Did I mention I dont get much sleep in the spring when storms come through.....lol

Thankfully we still have power (BIG surprise after seeing all the power flashes last night) Funny thing was it kept getting warmer and warmer as I sat out on the porch and watched the storm. I saw where Chandler got up to 88 degrees during the storm around 1:30am.

Today will be interesting, but at least like I mentioned earlier we still have power to clean up the debris.....and watch tonights storms. I noticed NWS site is still sketchy. :numchucks Bad time to do maintenance.

Yeah, they were doing construction around the SRH office in Fort Worth and that is what knocked the page out. It is all southern region offices that are down, why they wouldn't have another backup at a separate location is beyong me.

I hope they don't keep it this way, I like the older format.

That burst of air that came through last night was crazy. I watched the trees look like they were exploding down the middle then being sucked up by a giant vacuum. Very bizarre behavior. And the pressure was crazy. It was so strong it made me sick to my stomach and popped my ears. My windows were breathing instead of rattling. Guess I should have rethought living right next to the turnpike! It always seems to gun for that area. Memorial and Western.
And showers by candle light are not a fun way to start the day!! I have been without power for 10 hours now, I wonder how long we will be without it. I look forward to going home after work and going through my fridge.

my boss, came to work upset, a tree fell on her car during the night!!! She lives around 17th and brower area. She said it was a large tree that took out two cars

I was out and about my condo complex and was checking out all the transformers blowing last night & thought, man, I need to go and get my flashlight before our electricity goes out. As I'm walking toward my unit---KAPOW---pitch black! Came back on at 7AM.

That burst of air that came through last night was crazy. I watched the trees look like they were exploding down the middle then being sucked up by a giant vacuum. Very bizarre behavior. And the pressure was crazy. It was so strong it made me sick to my stomach and popped my ears. My windows were breathing instead of rattling. .

Sorry to hear you lost power. Good excuse to eat the rest of the ice cream though. I'd bet your power is back by this evening. OG&E still shows about 4600 outages.

If I'm not mistaken the reason the wind seemed so odd last night is because instead of blowing purely south to north it was blowing almost straight down. I noticed the same thing. We live in a forrested area and you could hear huge gusts all throughout the neighborhood. Very sporadic and very strong. I noticed several times our trees did the same thing. It looked like they were being smashed from above. That and it kept gettin warmer. Its called a heat burst.....maybe V can explain how it happens.

Intersting meteogram from west OKC shows the temp rise, dew point drop, pressure fall quickly, and the wind from last night.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/meteograms/OKCW.met.gif

Yeah Heat Bursts are more common into the summer, but are still pretty rare. To keep it pretty simplistic...updraft of the storm completely dies and the storm collapses. So everything that was pushed up into the storm, instead of being let out gradually through normal outflow, just comes rushing out all at once. As the air moves faster it heats up so you have this sudden gush of wind crashing down that is also a good 15-30 degrees warmer than the surrounding air temp.

There is a lot more that goes into it, otherwise every decaying storm would do the same thing, but that is the basic overview.

No real major changes with the outlook area today so far.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF OK...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST AR...MUCH OF MO AND MUCH OF IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY......

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS TROUGH AND STRONG POLAR JET MAX MOVES EWD FROM NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT...WITH GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINING ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WHERE THE RESERVOIR OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP LOW WRN ONTARIO SWWD THRU UPPER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL KS TO NRN TX PANHANDLE THIS AM.

VERY STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AOA 60KT FROM SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY CHARACTERIZED BY A PRONOUNCED EML ATOP A VERY MOIST BUT RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDERWAY ACROSS MID MS VALLEY WITH CURRENT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND LIKELY BECOME MORE INTENSE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN PLAINS...
STRONG CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWRN MO/SERN KS INTO NRN OK WHERE A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. AS SFC TEMPS ACROSS OK WARM TO AOA 90F WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG. ONCE THE COMBINATION OF FRONTAL FORCING AND HEATING IS SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY. WITH THE THREAT AREA LOCATED ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG POLAR JET PASSING BY TO THE N...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR TORNADOS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR BY EVENING AFTER STORMS ARE UNDERWAY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER VERY LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO BE A PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

A LINEAR MCS WILL THEN DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO NRN AR TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING.

Short term model guidance has initiation along the front around 7PM tonight now (or a bit before) developing and moving through the Metro through 10PM. Instabilities are forecast to be completely insane by later today, they are already indicated to be very unstable by SPC mesoanalysis. I wouldn't expect a lot of tornadoes at all today, wind patterns aren't there. However, monster hail is looking pretty likely and that may prove to be a lot worse in some cases.

Our storm from last night turned into a compact little MCV in Missouri.....interesting on radar.

Monster hail sounds ominous. I was wondering about the wind possibilities tonight. I dont want to clean up my yard twice...Before I clean up my yard I was curious what you thought the storms would do wind wise. The forecast is for supercells north and west turning into a squall line then a MCC. I was thinking there might be a lot of bowing line segments during the transition period. Do you think the storms will be south of OKC before they turn into a MCC or derecho? I guess timing is everything tonight.

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA_ATMOS_HAIL-SIZE_12HR.gif

I would suggest for those who are so interested in watching Oklahoma weather to get their own weather station, set it up in the backyard and go on the Internet with it. In other words, have your own personal weather station web site. A local example of how this is done is at:

Oklahoma City Live Weather (http://www.okcwx.com/)

Another Oklahoma example is at: Stillwater Weather (http://stillwaterweather.com)

The storm last night was fun! I had lights that kept flickering and a few blown around things out front and a wooden bird losing the tail (found it). This is a wooden Carnival bird with motion wings (hangin under a tree) bought at Family Dollars for a bux.

Weather Blog (http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com/)

A look at the blog, there's a pix showing a large portion of the state under Moderate Risk. Now, if you read the text on the map, it is saying Tornadoes, rather than Isolated Tornadoes. It seem that they are expecting serious tornado touchdowns count.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/severe7.jpg?w=300&h=202

One thing I do notice is that we finally have a clear, sunny skies before the storms. It's been so rare to have a clear, sunny skies before every storms this year.

Guess who's/what's back! :LolLolLol

NWS Norman, Oklahoma - Enhanced Weather Page (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php)

A look at the blog, there's a pix showing a large portion of the state under Moderate Risk. Now, if you read the text on the map, it is saying Tornadoes, rather than Isolated Tornadoes. It seem that they are expecting serious tornado touchdowns count.

Don't read into their tornado part...they are a news station and they thrive off ratings. Also their Moderate Risk is too big. chop off the western third of that unless the dryline can find a way to explode. Unfortunately, the thermonuclear cap overhead will keep things well in check. Until about I would say 50-75 miles west of I-35 when thing should start cranking and the evolution into an MCS begins. Other than that, the activity will be very isolated out there and only warrants a slight risk. Remember, the risk area is based off of number of reports...not how bad it is. We could have one storm out there will drop softball hall and spin a tornado, but that isn't wide spread so a slight risk covers that pretty well.

This is NOT an ideal tornado setup. The wind patterns are not what they need to be. Now, any storms that form along the boundaries out there or interact with any left over outflow from yesterday...could get enough spin to put one or two down. The instability is there to support it if a trigger can be found from something that is not typical of a classic tornado day.

Yeah, I know that. It's interesting. I bet they all got their chasers team out in full force expecting funnels here and there.

:LolLolLol

The educated chasers out there know what to expect today, a tornado fest is not one of them.

Guess who's/what's back! :LolLolLol

NWS Norman, Oklahoma - Enhanced Weather Page (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php)

GREAT! Surely it can be said that our taxpayer dollars are being spent quite well.

GREAT! Surely it can be said that our taxpayer dollars are being spent quite well.

It would be nice if we all got a big annual opt-in check-list if we want to participate in a government program. Of course if we say no, then we couldn't see the results of that agency's work. And heck, they could create ANOTHER agency to make sure I didn't look at NOAA's web page since I wouldn't help fund it!

I can see it now...

Circle one...

I want to pay for Medicare even though I wouldn't get the benefits of it: YES NO
I want to pay for the NOAA: YES NO
I want to pay for a study on drunk prostitutes in China: YES NO
I want to pay for the Feds to go after those lying !@#$%^ at Cheerios: YES NO
I want to pay for a study on the sex and alcohol habits of gay Argentinans: YES NO
I want to pay more for my sugar filled carbonated beverages: YES NO
I certainly want to pay for irresponsible people's credit card bill: YES NO

Sounds great. Now get me totally on your side by naming a country where what you say is actually done and it has living conditions we would glady live under.

If only the private sector could show us how it could be done by, for instance, allowing us to check off only the cable channels we want to see.

But I don't mind and not about to gripe over my tax dollars going to monitor the weather and alert us to possible dangerous conditions developing.

If only the private sector could show us how it could be done by, for instance, allowing us to check off only the cable channels we want to see.

I said that's what I wanted in a thread the other day!

See, you're starting to think like a libertarian!

:)

:backtotop

New MD out for Oklahoma...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0814.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN KS AND NERN INTO CENTRAL/WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132021Z - 132145Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE BY 21-23Z OVER PORTIONS OF
SRN/SERN KS AND NRN INTO CENTRAL/WRN OK. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
A WW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A S/W TROUGH PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET SAMPLED
BY NLG PROFILER. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT POSITIONED
FROM ROUGHLY STJ TO ICT TO GAG AT 19Z IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SAGGING SWD ACROSS SERN KS INTO NRN AND WRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG SLY SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF OK VEER TO SWLY ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THEN NLY IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MODIFIED 18Z OUN SOUNDING
FOR A TEMPERATURE OF 90 AND DEWPOINT IN THE UPPER 60S YIELDS OVER
3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...A WARM CAPPING INVERSION STILL
RESIDES NEAR 700 MB...EVIDENT BY STABLE CUMULUS FIELD IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHORT TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH UPPER
WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
ERODE/LIFT THE CAPPING INVERSION BY 23Z...RESULTING IN INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM SERN/SRN KS INTO NRN/WRN
OK.

CONVECTIVE MODE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MO INTO SERN/SRN KS AND
NRN OK IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TOWARD LINEAR RATHER QUICKLY
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE DISCRETE
ACTIVITY MAY EXIST OVER WRN OK. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LARGE CAPE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40
KT INVOF THE FRONT MAY FAVOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES
INITIALLY...POSING A THREAT OF LARGE-VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRONG FRONTAL FORCING WILL FAVOR
STORM TYPE TRANSITION TOWARD BOWS AND LEWPS WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER
INITIATION...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

Westsidesooner,

Laymans's terms please .....

Tornados - Yes or No ? Time?

Should I start the Gary England Drinking Game anytime soon? lol, thanks ...

Should I start the Gary England Drinking Game anytime soon? lol, thanks ...

Good one!

lol.. I figure if I have to be petrified of getting sucked up into oblivion, I might as well be drunk throughout it all! I kid, I kid .... maybe.

The chance of a tornado in the Metro tonight is very small, that said don't be surprised if you see a tornado warning somewhere in the state tonight. However.......It could get pretty bad later with the possibility of Very large hail and Very strong winds of 70mph+. Storms are starting to fire in southern Kansas and should build into northern Oklahoma this evening. I'd play close attention when the storms get close tonight.

If theres any variation of the game that includes the terms squall line, straight-line winds or giant hail...have the shot glassses ready!!! :Smiley051 I'd expect they will issue a Tornado watch just to be safe. That and the storms will/could be severe enough that they will cause tornado type damage. Timing....I'd guess between 8pm and 2am.

Im just starting to clean up the debris from last nights storm...its so hot and humid out there & I'm melting. lol I might get the game started early.

A toast......

:gossip: :Smiley051 :gossip:

I'll get myself prepared now for the LOST season finale to not be aired in HD...

I'll get myself prepared now for the LOST season finale to not be aired in HD...

That wouldnt surprise me. Severe weather kills primetime.

I was wrong about the watch......its a severe t-storm watch not a tornado watch

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0296_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295...

DISCUSSION...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY 23Z ALONG
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO N/NW OK. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
SUPPORT STORM FORMATION/INTENSIFICATION...AND GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO
A LINE OF STORMS ON THE FRONT. THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS GIVEN 8.5-9 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BECOMING COMMON THREATS LATER THIS EVENING AS
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES.

Short term model guidance has initiation along the front around 7PM tonight now (or a bit before) developing and moving through the Metro through 10PM. Instabilities are forecast to be completely insane by later today, they are already indicated to be very unstable by SPC mesoanalysis. I wouldn't expect a lot of tornadoes at all today, wind patterns aren't there. However, monster hail is looking pretty likely and that may prove to be a lot worse in some cases.

Right you are. The weather watch just issued was a severe weather one, rather than for tornadoes. I better remember to put my car in the garage.

Yeah Heat Bursts are more common into the summer, but are still pretty rare. To keep it pretty simplistic...updraft of the storm completely dies and the storm collapses. So everything that was pushed up into the storm, instead of being let out gradually through normal outflow, just comes rushing out all at once. As the air moves faster it heats up so you have this sudden gush of wind crashing down that is also a good 15-30 degrees warmer than the surrounding air temp.

There is a lot more that goes into it, otherwise every decaying storm would do the same thing, but that is the basic overview.

It's interesting that Stillwater was not too far away to feel the effects of the heat burst. By scrolling down to the first graph you can see how it blew in between 5 and 6 am here: Weather Station History : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KOKSTILL4)

A refresher of the Gary England Drinking Game:

http://www.okctalk.com/okc-underground/6065-gary-england-drinking-game.html

Sorry, went to see Star Trek...so back to work now. ;)

Confirmed tornado south of Deer Creek, west of Tonkawa, and north of Billings.

West Central Blaine county report of a land spout by KOCO chaser just came across the wire.

Y'all forget about your primetime network programs for the night, looks like its gonna be wall-to-wall w/ all of them.

Metro impacting...gotta go with that. Thank god for Tivo. : )

Storm with the land spout earlier near Greenfield has a very strong rotation with it, this will likely moving into Canadian County in the next hour.

NWS Norman did an extended warning down the line more to the SW as a preemptive measure for rapidly developing storms.