View Full Version : Severe Weather Risk - May 5 Tuesday



venture
05-05-2009, 06:21 AM
Morning, throwing the outlook and MCD out fast. Risk is mainly I-40 to the south since the warm front isn't expected to move much farther north.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SRN
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
SEABOARD AND ERN GULF COAST STATES...

...SRN PLAINS...
A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AS A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WEST TX INCREASES MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH TODAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN WRN OK THIS MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE UNDISTURBED ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION. WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS NORTH TX AND SRN
OK...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SFC-BASED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MOSTLY LIKELY IN SW OK OR NW TX DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING EWD DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.

NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW
AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
OF 55 TO 60 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THIS ALONG
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCTION. THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS COULD CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 500 METERS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
IF A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING. AN
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST FURTHER EAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IF AN MCS ORGANIZES ACROSS NE TX INTO SW AR.

venture
05-05-2009, 06:22 AM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0706.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...POTIONS NW TX...WRN/CENTRAL OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051140Z - 051345Z

ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HEMPHILL COUNTY TX...WITH
ADDITIONAL/COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND LIKELY INCIPIENT DEVELOPMENT OVER
ADJACENT AREAS OF ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. TSTMS ALSO MAY FORM
WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS IN INITIALLY SEPARATE/E-W OR ESE-WNW ALIGNED
BAND OVER NW TX OR SW OK...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
EWD-ESEWD FROM PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL.

WAVY SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW OVER SERN NM...ESEWD TOWARD
I-10 CORRIDOR FROM FST-JCT -- THEN GENERALLY EWD TOWARD CLL AND SWRN
LA. WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD THROUGH MIDMORNING. MORE ROBUST NWD
SURGE EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...ACROSS I-20 AND TOWARD
RED RIVER AREA PER DAY-1 OUTLOOK. IN MEANTIME...STRONG LLJ -- 45-50
KT -- ALREADY IS IN PLACE AND CONTRIBUTING TO VIGOROUS WAA AND MOIST
ADVECTION ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT TO LFC WELL N OF INITIAL WARM FRONT POSITION...AND FAVORABLE
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ALOFT ACROSS RED RIVER REGION AND WRN OK.
RELATED THETAE INCREASE AT BASE OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER WILL
JUXTAPOSE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES CHARACTERISTIC OF EML...BOOSTING
ELEVATED MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER RED RIVER REGION AND
500-1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS SWRN/W-CENTRAL OK THROUGH 15Z. AS
BUOYANT PROFILES DEEPEN INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SHOULD STRENGTHEN...REACHING MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT. FCST VEERING
OF LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT EWD/SEWD SHIFT AND EXPANSION OF CONVECTION
ACROSS AREA REMAINDER MORNING.

..EDWARDS.. 05/05/2009

venture
05-05-2009, 08:22 AM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
920 am cdt tue may 5 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Central caddo county in southwest oklahoma...
Northeastern kiowa county in southwest oklahoma...
Southeastern wa****a county in western oklahoma...

* until 1000 am cdt

* at 921 am cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 3 miles south of mountain view...moving east at
30 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include albert...carnegie...fort cobb...
Mountain view and southern fort cobb reservoir.

westsidesooner
05-05-2009, 08:53 AM
The storm now moving through Caddo county is looking like a pretty good hailer. And from velocity radar there looks to be some strong winds forming with it. It might be downbursting. I wonder if south central Oklahoma is going to get another windstorm today?

ultimatesooner
05-05-2009, 09:44 AM
bring on some nadoes, I'm sick off all of this rain and no tornadoes

westsidesooner
05-05-2009, 10:24 AM
I'm tired of the cold rainy weather too, I feel like I should be carving a pumpkin or something. If you're looking for tornadoes today you'll have to go south. There could be some pretty decent storms form this afternoon along the red river valley, then move into north Texas. If it was me I'd set up just southeast of Wichita Falls. The NWS just issued this forecast for later today. Its probably time sensitive so it might not make sense later.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Short_Term_Forecast.jpg?timestamp=1241538280

venture
05-05-2009, 11:00 AM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1157 am cdt tue may 5 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northern carter county in southern oklahoma...
Southern garvin county in southern oklahoma...
Murray county in southern oklahoma...
Extreme northeastern stephens county in southern oklahoma...

* until 1245 pm cdt

* at 1157 am cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles southwest
of foster to ratliff city...moving east at 35 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include davis...dougherty...elmore city...
Foster...gene autry...hennepin...lake of the arbuckles...milo...
Pernell...pooleville...ratliff city...springer...sulphur...
Tatums...turner falls and wynnewood.

venture
05-05-2009, 11:01 AM
Yeah, I think Wichita Falls would definitely be a good place to be later today. At least with all these rain, it is easy to dig in the yard. :-P

Thunder
05-05-2009, 11:03 AM
10th straight day of rain. It looks likely we will hit 15 days. :LolLolLol

westsidesooner
05-05-2009, 11:19 AM
It'd be easy to dig in the yard if it ever dries up enough. I need to get some stuff planted before it gets to hot. Another problem with all this rain is it makes all the deadwood in the oak trees fall. A big branch fell in our yard Sunday and took out half of one of our redbud tress. aarrgghh. I need to get someone to trim out the deadwood, but last time I got an estimate they quoted me $2500 to trim up our Oaks. Thats not in the budget right now. Another thing......with all this rain recently, moisture shouldn't be a problem for storms later in the month. And it ALWAYS storms on memorial day weekend. Prior to that I'm still holding hopes that Thursday could be interesting...if we can ever get some sun.

venture
05-05-2009, 12:48 PM
Yeah, moisture really isn't a problem this year unlike previous years...maybe a bit too much thought. LOL

Of Sound Mind
05-05-2009, 12:51 PM
I'm currently looking for blueprints to build an ark... or at least one of those airboats they use in the Florida Everglades...

jstanthrnme
05-05-2009, 12:55 PM
Yeah, moisture really isn't a problem this year unlike previous years...maybe a bit too much thought. LOL

Was it 2006 or 2007 that we had, i believe, 22 days straight where it rained?

westsidesooner
05-05-2009, 01:20 PM
That was 2007.

For anyone traveling south today......

The more I look at todays setup the more its looking like north Texas could be in for a pounding later today. Starting anywhere in the Wichita falls-Abeliene-DFW triangle. Tornadoes look very possible. Then turning into a possible MCS or maybe an MCC and rake across the metroplex.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/fwd/graphicast/image2.gif

NWS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/hazard/haz.php?loc=nort&dow=TODAY)....North Texas hazards map

Much like the one that hit the southeast last weekend.