View Full Version : Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1



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venture
04-30-2009, 07:29 AM
Major concerns today are storms producing large hail. No specific location is better than another today. So many boundaries are laying all over the place, any spot could become the focal point for today. Short term models show a general coverage in precip today, but not of any really heavy amounts. This doesn't mean someone won't get heavy rain today or severe weather, just that models can't pinpoint what areas have a greater chance.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

Hail Risk:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_hail.gif

Satellite Image (1KM)
http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma.gif

NEXRAD Mosaic Radar
http://weather.cod.edu/data/nexrad/Oklahoma.gif

kevinpate
04-30-2009, 07:52 AM
I'm ready for the rain to take a multi-day break. I know folks whose work mandates dry weather so they can tackle their tasks. They're a tad restless when it stays wet like this.
That sat photo certainly wouldn't raise their spirits.

westsidesooner
04-30-2009, 10:17 AM
I have to admit I'm ready for some dry sunny weather too. Hopefully the rain will hold off long enough this evening for me to get the lawn mowed. Before the neighbors start complaining. From the latest hazrdous weather outlook its sounds like the NWS will be focusing their attention on north cetral through central Oklahoma this afternoon. There should be several outflow boundaries around (although they are hard to pic up right now on radar and sat.) The new SPC outlook should be out by noon. Be interesting to see if anything changes in their discussion from this morning. Til then... heres the NWS discussion.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO VEGETATION...AUTOMOBILES...AND HOMES...FROM HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS.

LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE FROM 75 MPH WINDS.

A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...
RICH GULF MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND LOCALLY UPPER 60S...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...A SMALL COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF STILLWATER...DOWN TO INTERSTATE
40. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ELSEWHERE...THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE PLENTY OF HEATING...RESULTING IN STRONG
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2500...AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3500 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE GREATEST
TO THE WEST...AND WEAKEST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND A WIND SHIFT...OR TROUGH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
PONCA CITY TO WATONGA AND MANGUM. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WHERE THE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY...MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK OF VERY
LARGE HAIL...AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY
QUICKLY GROW INTO A COMPLEX...HOWEVER...AND BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

Thunder
04-30-2009, 11:23 AM
Oh the HUMIDITY!!!

Yeah, I'm waiting on that data to come out. It should be anytime now.

Thunder
04-30-2009, 11:42 AM
Jon at KFOR is calling for a Moderate Risk throughout North Central, including the metro, for later today. Areas surrounding the Moderate Risk is also at risk as well, especially under Slight Risk. Highlighted areas on the weather map is only an estimate.

Main risks is heavy rain, lightning, wind, and large hail. Isolated tornadoes is possible.

Thunder
04-30-2009, 12:08 PM
Latest NWS Discussion


SKIES WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MVFR CONDITIONS
AT BEST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SITES. LATER
THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NORTHERN SITES WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC
WILL AT LEAST HAVE STORMS IN THE AREA.

venture
04-30-2009, 01:06 PM
MCD out for the NE counties.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0645.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301855Z - 302100Z

REMNANT MCV IS SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS NCNTRL AR WITH BREAKS IN
EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS NOW OCCURRING NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITHIN
COOLER AIRMASS OVER WCNTRL AR/ECNTRL OK. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG
WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC MESO-SCALE COLD DOME. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY
MAY CONGEAL AND BECOME ROOTED A BIT LOWER AS IT APPROACHES STEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ALONG I-40 OVER AR. IF THIS
OCCURS...UPWARD GROWTH IS POSSIBLE AND SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW.. 04/30/2009

bretthexum
04-30-2009, 01:34 PM
Venture, see those 2 outflow boundries parked right over OKC? Yikes. Same thing happened in KS last night and they got about 6 naders. I'm hoping for just hail, but sometimes those colliding boundries spin up, even with minimal shear.

Thunder
04-30-2009, 01:36 PM
It looks like the Low is still tracking SE. Have that changed, Venture?

The dryline out west is entering the state. I still think that the metro have a decent chance.

Venture?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Regional_Weather.jpg?timestamp=1241118332

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=124111 8859

Luke
04-30-2009, 01:52 PM
Off at 4:00, home by 4:30... I'm hoping nothing happens by then.

I HAVE to mow!

Thunder
04-30-2009, 01:54 PM
Off at 4:00, home by 4:30... I'm hoping nothing happens by then.

I HAVE to mow!

Me too. I got a couple of mowing to do, but I'm delaying all that.

Charlie40
04-30-2009, 01:59 PM
Get a goat they can mow rain or shine :LolLolLol

Luke
04-30-2009, 02:11 PM
Get a goat they can mow rain or shine :LolLolLol

Although I do live in Del City, I don't think a backyard goat would fly.

;)

Thunder
04-30-2009, 02:17 PM
Although I do live in Del City, I don't think a backyard goat would fly.

;)

My aunt way out in the small town next to Checotah (forgot the name) had a goat. It was very cute! That was a long time ago and she got rid of him, because he was interfering with the neighbors, getting on top of cars, etc. They are capable of jumping the fence.

Thunder
04-30-2009, 02:21 PM
Rainfall totals for today and tomorrow.

(Pix may change since the time of this post.)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Rainfall_Totals.jpg?timestamp=1241122730


.DISCUSSION...ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN
IN OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN CONSTANTLY
AT ANY LOCATION...WE ANTICIPATE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN...AND AT SOME TIMES WE WILL SEE ORGANIZATION ON LARGER SCALES.
EVEN THE MOST ISOLATED STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN...AS WE
MAINTAIN A DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COMBINING THIS
REASONING WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES /MEANING THAT IT WILL TAKE LITTLE RAIN TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING/ WE CHOSE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS NECESSARILY
LARGE AND LONG LIVED...THROUGH SUNDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT LAPSE RATES REMAINED STEEP...YIELDING LARGE
MEASURES OF INSTABILITY. THE CAP WILL LIMIT THE NUMBER OF EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW ARE LIKELY TO FORM...FIRST NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST
OR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SECOND IN AN ISOLATED FASHION
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
ANY OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER. THE STORMS FARTHER NORTH...HOWEVER...WILL HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A COMPLEX. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE COMPLEX MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE RED RIVER. THIS WAS ONE REASON TO
TAKE THE FLOOD WATCH ALL THE WAY TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER.

MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT INDEPENDENT OF THE EVENING ACTIVITY...WE WILL
SEE A STRONGLY FORCED AREA FOR ASCENT DEVELOP IN KANSAS AND FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD MORNING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING
ON A ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS MAY SUSTAIN RAIN AND
STORMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A SURFACE
FRONT THAT SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
MAY LIGHT UP WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL AGAIN FEED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME...
OUTFLOWS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT...AND OUR UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...CAUSING A WAVE ON THE FRONT...AND SPREADING RAIN WELL UP TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...IF
FLOODING IS A PROBLEM...IT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM EVEN WELL
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS WAS ANOTHER REASON TO TAKE THE
FLOOD WATCH OUT FAR IN TIME...THROUGH SUNDAY.


AT 3 PM...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
FROM NEAR CHANDLER TO NEAR ENID... A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA NEAR ARNETT. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN PARTS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES...TEMPERATURES HAD
WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AS THE CAP WEAKNES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

venture
04-30-2009, 04:18 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0647.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302213Z - 302345Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN
INITIATE IN NRN AND CNTRL OK. THE STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE
AREA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF STORM INITIATION WITH WW
ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
WOODWARD EXTENDING ESEWD TO NEAR GUTHRIE AND MUSKOGEE. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED AND THE RUC SUGGESTS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. IN
SPITE OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...STORM INITIATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING ESPECIALLY IF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE. IF STORMS CAN
INITIATE...REGIONAL PROFILERS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SUGGEST ABOUT 40
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EXISTS. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A
TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

venture
04-30-2009, 04:21 PM
This gives a good idea where they are watching. This is from the SPC's mesoscale analysis page showing current moisture convergence.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s3/mcon.gif

venture
04-30-2009, 04:41 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0648.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302236Z - 302330Z

CORRECTED FOR LOCATION

ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN OK
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD INITIATION OCCUR...STORMS WILL
LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN NWRN TX. ALTHOUGH VISUAL APPEARANCE OF THE CU AND CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK CINH REMAINS...STRONG SURFACE HEATING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY ACT TO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE
CAP...ALLOWING STORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND GENERAL RIDGING
ALOFT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME
ROOTED AT THE SURFACE AND BECOME SEVERE IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40 KTS OF 0 TO 6 KM NWLY BULK
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SHOULD
INITIATION APPEAR TO BE IMMINENT...A WW WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED
QUICKLY.

..HURLBUT.. 04/30/2009

Luke
04-30-2009, 04:44 PM
The lawn is mowed! Rain, commence!

Thunder
04-30-2009, 05:49 PM
Storms is firing far SW. This could be da bomb!

venture
04-30-2009, 06:03 PM
Nothing down to the SW yet except for some false echoes on radar. There is some development in the NE now. One other area that really has my attention right now is in NW Oklahoma where there seems to be a very thick CU developing there now.

Thunder
04-30-2009, 06:10 PM
I was just watching Mike and he was pinpointing clouds starting to go up in the SW area, I think the TX area. I was putting together wooden birds to hang outside under the tree.

venture
04-30-2009, 06:22 PM
There are some down there, but they aren't doing much.

Oklahoma 1km Resolution Radar and Satellite Imagery (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Oklahoma)

Thunder
04-30-2009, 06:23 PM
The ones you mentioned in the NW, what direction are they moving?

OKCisOK4me
04-30-2009, 06:24 PM
I was just watching Mike and he was pinpointing clouds starting to go up in the SW area, I think the TX area. I was putting together wooden birds to hang outside under the tree.

Cause the would...attract...the storms and....make them comes toward OKC? lol

Thunder
04-30-2009, 06:28 PM
Cause the would...attract...the storms and....make them comes toward OKC? lol

It's wood. :LolLolLol Could be!

Venture, it looks like the clouds is moving E/SE, according to that link I visited and clicked on animation. I could be wrong, but I'm noticing multiple moving directions from all areas.

venture
04-30-2009, 06:31 PM
Initiation appears imminent in NW Oklahoma in Custer County.

Storms that form in the NW are likely to me ESE/SE and the potential to form the typical complex we've had the last couple nights. It is still WAY too early.

OKCisOK4me
04-30-2009, 06:35 PM
Initiation appears imminent in NW Oklahoma in Custer County.

Storms that form in the NW are likely to me ESE/SE and the potential to form the typical complex we've had the last couple nights. It is still WAY too early.

I just got done looking at the wunderground.com radar and there are a few storms developing between Ark City, KS & Ponca City, north of the Oklahoma state line.

Those storms that formed yesterday in Texas were big time right now this time. We have hardly anything. Not to say nothing will happen. It will be interesting to see if anything goes up. I agree with the forecasters though and don't really expect anything here again until this weekend.

venture
04-30-2009, 06:42 PM
There is a ton of instability out there, so if it can break the cap...being by itself it could have some fun. Appears another cell going up in Central Dewey County as well.

There are plenty times where initiation doesn't happen until almost sunset, so can't write things off yet.

venture
04-30-2009, 06:43 PM
There is one chaser who is following this new development.

Mike Phelps (http://chasertv.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=239:mike-phelps&catid=20:chaser-pages&Itemid=82)

Thunder
04-30-2009, 06:45 PM
Venture, are you on AIM or YIM? I'm on those, if you want to accept? I got some questions. lol

Luke
04-30-2009, 06:46 PM
There is one chaser who is following this new development.

Mike Phelps (http://chasertv.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=239:mike-phelps&catid=20:chaser-pages&Itemid=82)

Who knew Michael Phelps was so multi-faceted. Gold medalist swimmer, pot head AND storm chaser!

venture
04-30-2009, 06:52 PM
LOL I caught that too Luke. : )

Storm in Custer County has broke the cap and is around 42K feet right now. We'll see what happens. The cell north of it in Dewey is at 34K feet and another little cell is trying by Taloga.

Thunder
04-30-2009, 06:54 PM
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Storm_View_1.jpg?timestamp=1241138934

venture
04-30-2009, 06:55 PM
Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0749 pm cdt thu apr 30 2009

valid 010100z - 011200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the cntrl/srn plains ewd into the lwr oh/mid-ms vlys...

...ok/ks/swrn mo/cntrl-wrn ar...
00z mesoanalysis places a low over roger mills county ok with a dryline swd along the ok/tx border to swrn tx. An outflow boundary extended ese through logan county ok then to near fort smith ar.

Subsidence in wake of the departing mcv in wrn ky in combination with weak convergence and strengthening sbcinh ridging nwd into the red rvr vly has kept sfc-based storms from developing through 00z.
However...satl/radar suggests that sfc-based storms will likely form invof the mesolow over wcntrl ok where strongest mass convergence and weakest sbcinh exist. 00z oun sounding exhibited mucape of 3147 j/kg and 8.4 c/km h5-h7 lapse rates and around 40 kts of effective shear. Storms that initiate will likely become supercells with very large hail...dmgg wind gusts and perhaps an early evening tornado or two.

Nocturnal swly llj is expected to strengthen to 35 kts...impinging on the nw-se oriented outflow boundary later tonight. Thus...it is reasonable to expect storms to expand in coverage ene through cntrl/nrn ok and into sern ks...swrn mo and wrn ar through 12z.
These storms will mostly be elevated...but storms closer to the boundary across cntrl ok could maintain near-sfc based inflow with threats for dmgg winds increasing along with hail threats.

venture
04-30-2009, 06:59 PM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
758 pm cdt thu apr 30 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northwestern custer county in western oklahoma...

* until 900 pm cdt

* at 758 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 6 miles east of moorewood...moving east at 10
mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

venture
04-30-2009, 06:59 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0218_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER NORTHWEST OK ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS MAY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EVENING. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

WS 0218
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 28025
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO



Ww 218 severe tstm ok 010055z - 010600z
axis..40 statute miles north and south of line..
25ssw gag/gage ok/ - 20se cqb/chandler ok/ ..aviation coords.. 35nm n/s /23s gag - 52e okc/ hail surface and aloft..3 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025.

Lat...lon 36529994 36099656 34939656 35389994

Thunder
04-30-2009, 07:03 PM
In connection to above, Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/2158/20617197.gif

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=124113 9494

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Storm_View_1.jpg?timestamp=1241139602

westsidesooner
04-30-2009, 07:08 PM
Dont you know thats got to be really pretty going up right at sunset. :artist: Someones getting a nice view out west.

Thunder
04-30-2009, 07:11 PM
Watches posted.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 21 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY
KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

SEMINOLE

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

BLAINE DEWEY ELLIS
MAJOR WOODWARD

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CADDO

IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA

BECKHAM CUSTER ROGER MILLS
WA****A

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...ARNETT...CHANDLER...
CHEYENNE...CHICKASHA...CLINTON...CORDELL...EL RENO...ELK CITY...
FAIRVIEW...GUTHRIE...KINGFISHER...MOORE...MUSTANG. ..NORMAN...
OKLAHOMA CITY...PURCELL...SAYRE...SEMINOLE...SHAWNEE...
STILLWATER...TALOGA...WATONGA...WEATHERFORD...WOOD WARD AND YUKON.

jstanthrnme
04-30-2009, 07:17 PM
Dont you know thats got to be really pretty going up right at sunset. :artist: Someones getting a nice view out west.

Here are some pics following i took following some storms around sunset S of Woodward last spring.. I didn't have the best camera or skills at the time, but it was very photogenic.

(I hope they're not to big. feel free to resize, mod.)
http://i281.photobucket.com/albums/kk217/mrk_cunnhm/Cooper%20Pics/740400-R1-040-18A_016.jpg?t=1241141081

http://i281.photobucket.com/albums/kk217/mrk_cunnhm/Cooper%20Pics/740398-R1-041-19_020.jpg?t=1241141175

Thunder
04-30-2009, 07:18 PM
Dont you know thats got to be really pretty going up right at sunset. :artist: Someones getting a nice view out west.

As Venture had posted, there is a chaser tracking that storm and the streaming is going right now.

Mike Phelps (http://chasertv.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=239:mike-phelps&catid=20:chaser-pages&Itemid=82)

I don't see any AWESOME sunset. Just AWESOME storm clouds. If you look closely, you can see some lowerings.

venture
04-30-2009, 07:19 PM
Oh yeah definitely. It is up over 53K feet right now. For those of us not lucky to be there, a simulated view of what it looks like. : )

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/normal_kvnx_20090501_0111.png
AnvilCrawlers.com Photo Gallery: Click image to close this window (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/displayimage.php?pid=9&fullsize=1)

venture
04-30-2009, 07:22 PM
Oh...and wouldn't you know, right on time. The bats have arrived in northern Woods County.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/normal_bats.png
AnvilCrawlers.com Photo Gallery: Click image to close this window (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/displayimage.php?pid=10&fullsize=1)

I'm still trying to decide if I like the new color table I made for the radar image.

venture
04-30-2009, 07:29 PM
Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
827 pm cdt thu apr 30 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Southwestern custer county in western oklahoma...

* until 915 pm cdt

* at 827 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 7 miles
northwest of foss reservoir...moving east at 15 mph.

* locations in the warning include butler...foss reservoir and
stafford.

jstanthrnme
04-30-2009, 07:33 PM
wait, your telling me that little circle are the mexican free-tailed bats???

Thunder
04-30-2009, 07:35 PM
http://www.contact.net/maximel/tornado2.gif

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/231/82750999.gif

venture
04-30-2009, 07:36 PM
LOL yes. Those are bats. There are others that normally come out of caves in SW OKlahoma. :)

Updated on Phelps video. Nice shock now of the wall cloud. No visual tornado or funnel that I can tell right now. Video quality isn't great, but looks like some definite striating to the clouds.

venture
04-30-2009, 08:07 PM
Update....

Tornado warned supercell moving over SW Custer County right now is taking a much bigger jog to the south than before. Rotation continues to look pretty string, not very tight right now. Live video from chasers in the area show a massive lowering with this storm and amazing structure. If only there was daylight we would probably see an amazingly classic southern plains supercell.

During typing, tornado warning update to reflect the new track to the south-southeast.

Other storms are pulsing trying to get going. Storm near Putnam has some hail with it and seems to be the second strongest right now. Two other small storms near Canton and Eagle City. More near Taloga, Trail/Camargo, and SW of Leedey.

Thunder
04-30-2009, 08:09 PM
2nd Tornado Warning issued.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 905 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FOSS
RESERVOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BURNS FLAT...FOSS AND SOUTHERN
FOSS RESERVOIR.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT... THIS STORM LIKELY CONTAINS
DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER.

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES SINCE THEY OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM TORNADO WINDS. STOPPING UNDER BRIDGES WILL BLOCK THE
ROAD AND PREVENT YOU AND OTHERS FROM REACHING SAFE SHELTER.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO
SEE. TAKE COVER NOW. IF A BASEMENT IS NOT AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND
VEHICLES FOR REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/2435/57971323.gif

venture
04-30-2009, 08:13 PM
Some more images from GR2AE on the storm...time stamp is 9:09 so a little old now.

Hail - Orange is over 1"

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/normal_hail-909pm.png
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/hail-909pm.png

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/normal_kfdr_20090501_0204.png
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/kfdr_20090501_0204.png

OKCisOK4me
04-30-2009, 08:22 PM
Well, I was wrong. Glad I'm not a weatherman!

venture
04-30-2009, 08:23 PM
Looks like most of the hail core has dumped out of the storm now. Hail size estimates are way dow and overall reflectivities as well.

venture
04-30-2009, 08:39 PM
Storm is definitely spinning down. Still has organized rotation with it, but still not very tight.

venture
04-30-2009, 09:08 PM
Storm near Oakwood in Eastern Dewey County is ticking up and radar is indicating Severe hail with this now. The storm is riding an outflow boundary that was left over from yesterday's activity. The rest of the cells ahead of it are showing signs of increasing, especially the one SW of Kingfisher.

jstanthrnme
04-30-2009, 09:29 PM
I still can't believe the Selman Bat Cave can light up a radar.

So, what is the overnight scenario/s for the metro?

venture
04-30-2009, 09:45 PM
On going cluster over Kingfisher County back into Blaine County is pulsing up a bit now. This batch is showing signs of turning more south, so at least north sides of the Metro will get wet and maybe a bit more. Outflow boundary is right in that area just north of us and there is a low pressure back in Ellis County right now that should help contribute to additional development.

Latest guidance from NWS in Norman is that storms will continue to develop over night across the area, and even increase in coverage as a piece of energy rolls in (which we are probably seeing the effects of now). Instability remains quite high across the area. Oh and there is a warning...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1044 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGFISHER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CASHION AND KINGFISHER.

venture
04-30-2009, 09:51 PM
Trying something new. 4 panel view on multiple radar products.

Top left is your normal reflectivity, top left is hail size (orange over 1 inch), bottom left is velocity showing two areas of shear, and bottom right are estimated storm echo tops (yellow is over 40,000 feet).

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/normal_kingfisher-1049pm.png
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/kingfisher-1049pm.png

venture
04-30-2009, 09:58 PM
Looks like a significant hail core is developing to the NE of Watonga to the SW of Loyal just north of of Highway 3. Hail is estimated at over 2 inches. This is the storm behind the currently warned one in Kingfisher.

bretthexum
04-30-2009, 10:06 PM
Don't need these to turn right and spin up. That first one has some moderate rotation on the tail end.