Before things get rolling, I want to bring attention to Sunday April 26th. Current indications are is that we will have a setup for a classic severe weather/tornado outbreak across the Southern Plains tomorrow, including the Metro area. SPC has alerted to this with very strong wording and has already outlooked the area of Central and Western Oklahoma in a moderate risk with a 45% hatch area. What this means is that there is a 45% probability of severe weather happening within 25 miles of a point, the hatched points out a 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather with in 25 miles of a point.

What can keep all this from going nuts? Storms that form on Saturday if they stick around or mix up the atmosphere too much, it'll take longer for things to get going. If there isn't enough of a lid on things early tomorrow, things could all just go up at once and then we'll have a heavy rain/hail/wind event.

Here is the current discussions covering this period. Graphics and such will be done in later posts.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A WELL-DEFINED 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY OUT OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. AT LOW-LEVELS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 45 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WCNTRL TX.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WCNTRL TX. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CAP BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON INITIATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF AT 21Z ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA SHOW DEEP UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AIDED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 40 TO 55 KT WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. CURVED HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IF THE CONVECTION ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING DOES INDEED MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION...THEN A TORNADO OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUNDAY ALSO SUGGEST THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY FROM SCNTRL KS SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST FROM ECNTRL KS ACROSS WRN OK WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS WCNTRL TX WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS AND LINE-SEGMENTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND LINE-SEGMENTS APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AS FAR AS SUNDAY GOES...SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TO TONIGHT AND WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE MOREVOLATILE WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKER CAP WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LOT OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY LARGE THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERS...AS OPPOSED TO MORE DISCRETE STORMS. HOWEVER...LCLS WILL BE LOW AND LOWER/DEEP SHEAR IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS...SO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT.

WITH WESTERN TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSES AT REGION... DAY TO DAY CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

Now the OKC Thunder will truely feel the wind! :LolLolLol

Going to hold of on any updates to the forecast and such until the morning model runs. We'll need to wait for the ongoing convection tonight to end and see where any boundaries are setup for tomorrow. One model run this evening that has come in, is having a tough time dealing with forecasting the instabilities tomorrow and has made some changes to the front/dryline positions that we'll need to see what they look like in another run to help confirm.

Venture, can you give your own prediction without the models? What will you think will take place tomorrow? Post that, then we'll compare with the morning updates.

Now the OKC Thunder will truely feel the wind! :LolLolLol

Too bad they're practically all gone for the summer!

Gut feeling? We'll see light rain or storms develop early morning and things will be a heavy rain/hail deal. I've learned my lesson a LONG time ago not to bite on moderate/high risk days until you see what is going on that morning/early afternoon. With elevated risk days, so many variables come in to play that cause those type of days. So if one thing is off, your forecast is bust. Now if we wake up, and there are just some low fast moving clouds by sun is getting through - then it'll be a busy day.

So in other words...elevated risk days are the roughest to predict. You can over hype and call for the end of the world - but it can come back to bite you. I'm going a bit more conservative because I've seen a lot of big days like this go flat, and we still have ongoing activity that needs to get out of here.

Yeah, it'll be flat if the first part of your gut feeling is correct, being that all of our moisture content would go kaputz!

No garage for my car so I hope it's not too intense tomorrow!

If the hail is like it was today - ehhh, it'll give it a nice buff job. :)

I'm thinkin that it will hold until the afternoon. There's still nothing out there in the SW, and the storm up North is still moving out of the state. I think we will have more than enough time for everything to be just right for tomorrow afternoon.

If someone could invent an air mattress that you could contour to the top of cars that are not in garages, then we'd all be good. If any of you have the money to pay for a patent for this then my idea is free. You're welcome!

New Day 1 is out...Moderate risk has been shifted out of Central Oklahoma into Western Oklahoma, Eastern TX Panhandle, NW Texas, and SC Kansas. The rest of the state remains in a slight risk. Will discuss more in the morning.

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0100 am cdt sun apr 26 2009

valid 261200z - 271200z

...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms across part of swrn ks...wrn ok...ern ok/tx panhandles to wrn part of n tx...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms extending from the srn/central plains to upper ms valley...

...synopsis...
A lead short wave trough/accompanying 70 kt swly mid level jet will track newd from the central rockies/high plains to the nrn plains/ upper ms valley this forecast period. Meanwhile...a second short wave trough and speed max...currently moving ewd through base of wrn u.s. Trough over nrn baja/lower co river valley will progress ewd today reaching the srn high plains/w tx by this afternoon. This impulse will then track enewd across the srn plains sunday night.

In the low levels at 12z...a surface boundary is expected to extend wswwd from the st lawrence river valley/lower great lakes through srn lower mi to srn ia...and then swwd through ks to an area of low pressure over the wrn ok panhandle. Ern extent of this boundary will advance sewd through ny/new england today...the rest of the boundary retreats nwd as a warm front reaching central/nrn lower mi wwd to central wi/srn mn by late afternoon. The trailing portion of the front will extend swwd from nwrn ia to central ks by afternoon. A surface low attendant to the lead short wave trough is expected to track newd across ern neb/wrn ia this afternoon...reaching sern mn by evening. Meanwhile...a dry line will initially extend sswwd through w tx to far sern nm/sw tx...and is expected to mix ewd reaching the ern ok/tx panhandles and w tx by mid-late afternoon.

...srn plains into srn ks...
A 60-70 swly mid level jet is expected to extend from the wrn portion of the srn plains to ern dakotas by this afternoon...along ern peripheries of respective short wave troughs affecting these areas today. Potential exists today for supercells to develop along the dry line/surface front intersection in swrn ks/ern ok panhandle and swd along the dry line to part of west central tx. Moderate instability combined with strong effective bulk shear /40-50 kt/ suggests likelihood for supercells. Second branch of sly llj is expected to develop/strengthen across wrn n tx/wrn ok into srn ks by late afternoon resulting in increased low level hodograph curvature/attendant tornado threat.

Models differ with the timing of tstm initiation from the triple point swd...but there is some indication that activity may develop as early as late morning or early afternoon. Strong surface heating should occur along nrn extent of dry line...while more filtered sunshine may occur swd across much of wrn/central tx into srn ok due to mid/high level clouds spreading across this region currently and during the morning. Steep lapse rates across this area with strong effective bulk shear will also be conducive to large hail...some very large across the moderate risk area.

Activity should spread ewd across srn ks/ok and n tx as nrn baja trough moves across the srn plains sunday night. Air mass is should remain moderately unstable into sunday evening/night supporting a continued severe weather threat after dark across the srn plains.

Venture, I had invited my family and friends over for the super bowl sunday of severe storms. What county/s should I *draft* tommorow in the Gary England Drinking Game?

http://www.okctalk.com/okc-underground/6065-gary-england-drinking-game.html

Oh dear god. With that I am going to get some sleep. I have a feeling I'll need it. LOL

Good. I'll look forward to it. Thanks!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

Venture, we still have a large portion of the metro area unaffected by yesterday's storms. Is it correct to say that the air mass is still unstable? Should it still be a moderate risk for the metro area?

It may take a while for the clouds to clear out, but does the heat actually break up these clouds? I know how the heat break up the fog, just wonder if it also applies to cloud.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Sunday.jpg?timestamp=1240738170

Will the jet stream be stronger today? If so, is it capable of pushing the dryline to the east faster? The jet stream, being stronger today, will also play a role in clearing out the clouds quickly, correct?

Is it me, or is Gary England WAY off his game this season? Last night, it looked like KWTV didn't even care just before 10pm.

Now if we wake up, and there are just some low fast moving clouds by sun is getting through - then it'll be a busy day.

Great, that's what things look like here in Yukon. It's about 9. Hopefully it means something else.

The new 8:30 convective outlook is out and OKC is back in the Moderate risk area. Should be a fun afternoon/evening hopefully these clouds will clear out so we get some heat going.

Now if we wake up, and there are just some low fast moving clouds by sun is getting through - then it'll be a busy day.

So in other words...elevated risk days are the roughest to predict.

I'd agree 100%, I thought Id have a clearer picture by the time I woke up this morning but its still a mess. Line trying to form in Kansas, some new convection in nw Texas moving into sw Oklahoma, and lots of clouds to deal with. Its a waiting game now. Last night I was thinking if things worked out just right it might be a High risk day........Luckily its not looking that way right now but alot can change by this afternoon.

Mesoscale discussion 0578
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1019 am cdt sun apr 26 2009

areas affected...cntrl ks swd into nwrn ok and ern tx pnhdl

concerning...severe potential...watch likely

valid 261519z - 261615z

tornado watch 188 will be reoriented and expanded sw into nw ok and ern tx pnhdl soon.

Apparent gravity wave has induced a likely elevated band of tstms from west of ktop swwd to near kict recently. Another band of tstms continues to grow along primary cdfnt farther to the w from east of krsl to nw of kgag.

Tstms are likely to build swwd from the two aforementioned bands through the next several hours as the nm mid-lvl wave ejects newd.
Binovc across much of the region will allow air mass to continue warming in this region...with weakest cinh over ks early. Cap should weaken gradually farther sw with time...leading to more sfc-based activity to evolve.

Vwp/profiler data show evidence of earlier wave passage with a veering-backing pattern in the lowest 6km. This will complicate storm mode early...with linear segments most favored.
However...storm organization into supercells with very large hail will become more likely with time...along with the threat for tornadoes...esp later this aftn.

This is a very dangerous situation now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0579.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 261554Z - 261700Z

SEE GRAPHIC FOR MDT-HIGH RISK LINES EXPECTED FOR 1630Z SWODY1
UPDATE.

HIGH RISK UPGRADE WILL INCLUDE SCNTRL KS AND NWRN/NCNTRL-WCNTRL OK
WITH A MDT RISK SPANNING FROM NWRN TX/ERN TX PNHDL ENEWD INTO CNTRL
OK AND CNTRL/ERN KS.

IMPRESSIVE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTN FOR A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG
TORNADOES...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

BRIEF THOUGHTS /DETAILS FORTHCOMING IN SWODY1 UPDATE/...

MORNING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT OF ACCAS FIELD WILL TRANSLATE NWD
INTO CNTRL/ERN KS AND NWRN OK THROUGH EARLY AFTN. PORTIONS OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SFC-BASED AS POCKETS OF HEATING LOCALLY ERODE
CINH. ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO FORM UPSTREAM ALONG THE
DRYLINE/FRONT IN ERN TX PNHDL/NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVE...TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS.

PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE BELOW VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...MLCAPES
3000-4000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT RICH MOISTURE INFLUX WILL FAVOR
LONG-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED
IN A CORRIDOR FROM NWRN TX INTO SCNTRL KS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
FROM AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW OVER OK PNHDL/SWRN KS...BOOSTING SRH
AND RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

..RACY/HART/HALES.. 04/26/2009

Sorry didn't get the watch up yet.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0190_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF CLINTON
OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 188...WW 189...

DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF FRONTAL
ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM NCENTRAL KS TO TX PANHANDLE. STORMS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AS WARM
SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS BECOMING
MOST LIKELY DURING LATER PORTIONS OF WATCH PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

WT 0190 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 70%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

Okay, they fired up way early. LOL

Venture, we learned something new today. Even if they fired up early, the high risk was issued. In previous posts, it was known if the cap holds for much of the day, then explosive outbreak. Interesting. Early. LOL

Note, it is now saying Tornadoes rather than Isolated Tornadoes.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/graphic110.jpg?w=426&h=287

Venture, give us the likely chances on any of these supercells to hold together toward the metro.

Sorry didn't get a chance to get a forecast out this morning. I wanted some sleep before this mess started. Currently on going crapvection through most of western oklahoma. Mainly heavy rain, some wind, and and hail with a couple of these. They could continue to strengthen and organize later this afternoon. One severe storm right now out in the Panhandle by Shamrock (west of Sayre). One thing to keep in mind, things will be evolving rapidly today throughout the day...so what is going on now won't be going on in 15 minutes. Hence why the storm in Harmon/Greer counties is now severe as I am typing this. Oh and another one for Beaver County in the panhandle.

Current mesoanalysis from the SPC shows extremely high significant tornado parameters through out northern and western OK. They are a big lower here, but we'll need to just watch this through the day. Effective helicity in the 0-1km category is crazy today in the same areas. It looks like the highest risk area for extremely large hail (up to 4 inches) is in Northern Oklahoma right now, but this will also change.

Greatest instabilities right now are also north of I-40 and west of I-35. As storms move into this area, they will need to be watched on how they transform.

Pretty much today is a day where things can get out of hand very quickly, and is why we have the high risk issued now and that the watch box is a PDS box (these are fairly rare only a dozen or so a year).

Thunder, I can't. No one can. This is a situation that evolves as it goes. Models are handling this morning convection by moving it out quickly into KS early this afternoon. Now the problem comes when one set of models develop absolutely nothing again in SW OK, but develop a massive MCS/Bow in SE Oklahoma later. Then another set is showing convection out west and staying there.

I am watching to see if these low clouds over us can burn off. Areas out west in the high risk area are getting some sun in between storms right now.

Okay, a waiting game. I like it, Venture! :yourock:

Is that a mini hook trying to form for the storm near Hobart? Looks like a possible tornado anytime there.

It was smaller, now it looks a bit more defined.

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/4916/hobartstorm.jpg

Latest...

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/174/hobartstorm2.jpg

hmmm, just awhile ago it seemed that the metro was under a watch but it appears to have shifted out west...

Maybe it might miss us all together?

(please say yes)

It looks like these storms wont affect the metro. We still got a whole day left for more developments. We're not in the clear yet. OKC will definately see something, but what comes of it remains unseen for now.

Looks like this storm, the back/tail end is more of rooting itself while the rest continue to move NE. Scretching this storm out, as shown in the pix. I still think something's going on there.

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/7650/hobartstorm3.jpg

Venture?

I was planning to go to Cordell to pick up this cute lil kitty!

TORNADO WARNING for that same storm posted above.

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
1236 pm cdt sun apr 26 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northeastern greer county in southwest oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern kiowa county in southwest oklahoma...
Eastern beckham county in western oklahoma...
Western wa****a county in western oklahoma...

* until 115 pm cdt

* at 1236 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 7 miles
southwest of retrop...moving northeast at 45 mph.

* locations in the warning include bessie...burns flat...canute...
Dill city...elk city and retrop.

Just a heads up...storm moving into Roger Mills Co from the panhandle does have signs of rotation now as well.

Update - this storm is located in an area of enhanced potential for a tornado.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0582.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NW-WCNTRL TX AND EXTREME SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261758Z - 261930Z

MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ERN NM WITH
STRONGEST PVA LIKELY TO TRANSLATE INTO NWRN-WCNTRL TX THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. BANDS OF ACCAS HAVE BEEN COMMONPLACE OVER W TX SINCE
EARLY MORNING WITH SFC BASED CBS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN SIDES OF
THE GLASS MOUNTAINS IN PECOS COUNTY RECENTLY.

EXPECT THAT CLEAN INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE /NEARING THE CAPROCK
EARLY THIS AFTN/ WILL BE MUDDLED BY GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH/
DEEPENING OF THE ACCAS STREETS INTO TSTMS AS THE DEEP LAYERED UVV
APCHS. INITIAL STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT...AS HEATING CONTINUES AND ACCAS
BOOTSTRAPS INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -AND- ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED
STORMS DVLP ALONG THE DRYLINE...ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER ARE LIKELY
AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS.

HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS NWRN TX/ERN S PLNS WHERE
STRONGEST SELY LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH EVENING. FARTHER
S...THOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT...THE LLVL FLOW/LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER.

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTN.

This will include the entire Metro area...it is a PDS Tornado.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0192_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...WW 191...

DISCUSSION...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE NWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.



Ww 192 tornado ok tx 261840z - 270300z
axis..70 statute miles north and south of line..
90sw cds/childress tx/ - 25sse cqb/chandler ok/ ..aviation coords.. 60nm n/s /29ese lbb - 47e okc/ hail surface and aloft..3 inches. Wind gusts..70 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24030.

Lat...lon 34520137 36409665 34369665 32490137

this is an approximation to the watch area. For a complete depiction of the watch see wous64 kwns for wou2.

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

WT 0192 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 60%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

Yuck.

I notice major lack of blog posts for KOCO. I wonder where that Internet guy that does the LIVEBLOGGING!

:omg:

Current update...

Ongoing activity north of I-40 remains strong to severe. Hail size with storms has generally been around an inch. There have been indications that the storms are trying to rotate, but haven't got anything established. South of I-40 is mostly quiet. There is a severe storm in Western North Texas that will move into Southern Oklahoma in the next 1-2 hours.

Current environment analysis shows the most unstable area to be in the SE TX Panhandle. Over OKC proper, the atmosphere is somewhat unstable but still have some inhibition that will hold development off in this area for a bit longer. LCL heights are dropping in nearly all over the Western half of Oklahoma. Best shear right now is in the area around Roger Mills, Ellis, Woodward, and Dewey counties and somewhat down through SW Oklahoma. Shear is increasing from NW Oklahoma into Central sections. SPC Composite parameters show the best supercell environment right now is over West Central to Southwest Oklahoma, where the environment is mostly void of storms right now. This area also has a heightened risk of tornadoes. As far as hail, the largest hail should be with the storms that form in SW Oklahoma or SE TX Panhandle.

Short term models are handling the ongoing storms well for the next 2-3 hours, but then struggle to maintain any precipitation in western oklahoma after 6-8PM. Just going to do a wait and see since the event is ongoing.

SPC's Update:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND SRN KS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS...OK...AND TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER OH VALLEY...

...CURRENT THINKING ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS...
THE LARGE MCS FROM NW OK EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS KS INTO NEB AND IA IS ORGANIZING INTO A LINEAR MCS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID-EVENING.
RUC ANALYZED INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR FIELDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AN EXTENSIVE SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE SQUALL-LINE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF KS INTO NW MO AND SRN IA. A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR AHEAD OF THE LINE THROUGH EARLY TO MID-EVENING.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA...THE LATEST SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHORT LULL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE MCS EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN THE NEW RUC AND NAM FORECASTS SUGGEST REPEAT INITIATION WILL OCCUR NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG MOST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE 23Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME. THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OF 50 TO 60 KT STILL LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE HIGH RISK AREA WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN OK BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALSO INCREASING ATTM HELPING STORMS THAT INITIATE TO RAPIDLY OBTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST FROM AROUND WOODWARD OK SWD TO ABOUT WICHITA FALLS TX WHERE AN AXIS OF LOW LCL HEIGHTS CURRENTLY EXISTS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH THAT A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.

OUN's Update:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT REGION...BUT ALSO FLOODING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE BETWEEN
6 AND 10 INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT JUST WEST AND NORTH OF ENID.

AT 3 PM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY IN PROGRESS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA NEAR FAIRVIEW...FORT SUPPLY...AND AMORITA. ANOTHER SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED IN KNOX COUNTY TEXAS...NEAR TRUSCOTT. ALL STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE LOW WAS INTENSIFYING...AS A STRONG JET STREAM AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHED FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. A DRYLINE
WILL REMAIN IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN A ZONE FROM THE DRYLINE TOWARD WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
AND MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING WILL YIELD STORMS WITH INCREASING
SUPERCELL CHARACTER...AND A PRIMARY THREAT OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE NUMBER OF STORMS AND
THEIR INTERACTIONS. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY CLOSE TO A SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION.

For those who are around that want to have a more flowing discussion, I have this live chat setup that I'll be in and out of throughout the evening.

Live Severe Weather Coverage Dis (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/livechat.html)

Honestly, it's hard for me to figure some of this out.

I'm giving you my address, just call me if it's coming this way okay?

Seriously, what do we know about the Metro today and tonight?

Specifically Edmond? I'm very nervous today.

Mesoscale discussion 0585
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0334 pm cdt sun apr 26 2009

areas affected...ok...nwrn tx...ern pnhdl tx

concerning...tornado watch 190...192...

Valid 262034z - 262230z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 190...192...continues.

Severe potential will increase...particularly with respect to
tornadoes...through this evening for a large part of cntrl/wrn ok
and nwrn tx. Potential for long-lived supercells with strong
tornadoes and giant hail will exist.

Rapid initiation appears to be taking place now along the ern tx
pnhdl/ok border along the dryline where the air mass heated in wake
of early day storms. Tstms will likely build swwd into the sern tx
pnhdl through late aftn...with activity moving off the dryline and
progressing newd into wcntrl/nwrn ok. Meanwhile... Tstms have been
developing out of pre-existing mid-lvl cloud streets over nwrn
tx...effectively rooting into the very unstable boundary layer.

Ahead of the storms...persistent influx of rich boundary layer
moisture and sfc heating have contributed to mlcapes of 3000 j/kg
across nwrn tx into wrn/cntrl ok. Thus...tstms should have no
trouble intensifying through early evening.

Vertical shear continues to improve per area profilers as the upr
lvl trough over nm begins to swing ene. 45-50 kts of bulk shear
will support supercells with very large hail and dmgg wind gusts.

Primary concern is for the potential for strong tornadoes.
Significant tornado ingredients appear in place from nwrn tx nwd
into cntrl/wrn ok where low-level environment will remain relatively
moist and where storms are apt to stay discrete the longest. 0-1km
srh values will be in excess of 300 m2/s2.

I know how it feels, Karrie. I gotta go to work and as a good employee, I'll have to let the customers be in the freezers, more room for them, and I'll probably go ahead clock out if somehow a tornado is coming our way, take off in the car.

Venture, I've been trying to use the chat, but no luck with IE7. Altho, it is working for me, finally, on FireFox.

Everyone, try this Live Severe Weather Coverage Dis (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/livechat.html) on IE or FireFox. Venture will have to promote ya'all to panelist or something, so your posts can go thru unmoderated, then should be working fine for ya.

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
404 pm cdt sun apr 26 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Southeastern ellis county in northwest oklahoma...
Northwestern roger mills county in western oklahoma...

* until 500 pm cdt

* at 404 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near reydon...
Moving northeast at 45 mph.

* locations in the warning include crawford...durham...harmon...
Reydon and roll.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Leave mobile homes and vehicles. If possible...move
to a basement or storm shelter. Otherwise move to an interior room or
hallway on the lowest floor. Stay away from windows and outside
walls.

Andy Gabrielson Live Chase Cam (http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=andy.gabrielson&uid=140)

Posted by Venture in the chat. You'll need Microsoft Silverlight to view the streaming video of the possible tornado near Cheyenne, out west.

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=mark.hill&uid=82

Posted by Venture in the chat. You'll need Microsoft Silverlight to view the streaming video of the possible tornado coming out of Texas into SW OK.

Sometime the connection on these streaming videos can be lost, but keep checking.

Possible tornado crossing the border, SW OK. South/SW of Altus.

Other storms in NW OK.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
456 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 456 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF HARMON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HARMON...MUTUAL...SHARON AND VICI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
542 pm cdt sun apr 26 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northwestern major county in northwest oklahoma...
Southeastern woods county in northwest oklahoma...
Eastern woodward county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 645 pm cdt

* at 542 pm cdt...a thunderstorm with a history of producing
tornadoes was located 15 miles southwest of quinlan...moving
northeast at 40 mph.

* locations in the warning include avard...hopeton...quinlan and
waynoka.

Radar run down.

On going tornadic storm in NW Oklahoma. Main area is north of Mutual on US 183 at County Road N2130. This will move into the Quinlan, Waynoka, and Mooreland areas.

Southwest Oklahoma storms, which have potential to impact the Metro in a couple to few hours. Strong is over Snyder right now moving NE. Its structure has been fluctuating quite a bit lately. It will need to be watched as it moves into a better environment for tornadoes.

Another storm is near Mangum down to Gould to Eldorado, then a break and another storm over Quanah, TX. Sporadic rotation is shown on radar with these. These will likely develop further as they move north.

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
547 pm cdt sun apr 26 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northwestern dewey county in northwest oklahoma...
Southeastern ellis county in northwest oklahoma...
Southwestern woodward county in northwest oklahoma...
Northwestern roger mills county in western oklahoma...

* until 645 pm cdt

* at 548 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 3 miles west of
crawford...moving northeast at 20 mph.

* locations in the warning include crawford and harmon.

Short term forecast
national weather service norman ok
543 pm cdt sun apr 26 2009

.now...
...regional weather discussion...

Early this evening...radar and satellite observations...along with forecast models...indicated that severe storms will occur in two primary clusters. One cluster was in progress over northwest oklahoma from reydon to near woodward and alva. Thunderstorms will develop repeatedly where an outflow boundary intersects a dryline in the eastern texas panhandle...just west of roger mills county oklahoma. A second cluster of storms had formed in western north texas and southwest oklahoma. Supercells were scattered along a line from guthrie to quanah texas...to hollis oklahoma. And a separate isolated supercell was located near frederick oklahoma. These storms will move northeast...and eventually may turn to the east later this evening. All of these storms will produce large hail...and the more isolated storms will produce destructive hail of baseball size or larger.

Although storms were interacting and producing outflow...they were also meeting exceptionally strong inflow. With low pressure intensifying in the texas panhandle...surface winds across north texas and oklahoma had increased from the southeast...at 30 to 40 mph...with some gusts over 50 mph near the inflow to thunderstorms. This will offset the effects of outflow...and maintain a distinct threat of tornadoes into the evening hours.

In addition...flooding is likely to continue with the storm cluster in northwest oklahoma. These storms will move into northern oklahoma
later this evening...and areas that experienced heavy rain on saturday night...will very quickly see runoff and renewed flooding this evening.

Mesoscale discussion 0587
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0544 pm cdt sun apr 26 2009

areas affected...portions central/srn ks...central/wrn ok...nw
tx...and ern tx panhandle.

Concerning...tornado watch 190...192...

Valid 262244z - 262345z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 190...192...continues.

Severe threat -- including potential for significant tornadoes and
damaging hail -- will continue across much of ww areas past
scheduled 00z expiration time for ww 190...and probably well past
03z expiration of ww 192. Therefore...we are planning to replace ww
190 and at least some of 192 with one consolidated/pds tornado watch
that will go past midnight local time. Haskell/throckmorton counties
tx -- in wfo sjt jurisdiction -- are being switched from ww 192 to
ww 193.

Damaging tornado already has been observed by media and chasers with
earlier storm in nw ok now moving into woodward county...and
environment will remain favorable for more of these with any
relatively discrete storms whose inflow is not too disrupted by
other activity. Tornado potential may increase with
pronounced/discrete supercell in sw ok...that should move from fdr
area newd toward caddo county during next couple hours. Additional
activity is expected to develop over ern tx panhandle and nw tx and
move newd as well...with mix of linear...embedded-supercell and bow
modes. Modified raobs...vwp/profiler data and ruc soundings all
indicate boundary layer shear remaining quite favorable and
reactively maximized over wrn ok...extreme s-central ks and portions
nw tx sw of cds -- e.g. 0-1 km srh 300-500 j/kg. Vertical
veer/back/veer profile that has been evident in wind profiles across
this region appears to be contributing to some linear
tendencies...but is progged to become more classically veering with
height through remainder afternoon/evening. Pressure falls analyzed
across nrn tx panhandle...ern ok panhandle and swrn ks indicate sfc
flow will remain favorably backed over this region...keeping
hodographs enlarged. Nearly uncapped air mass with 1500-2000 j/kg
mlcape will be maintained through evening hours as loss of mixing
and moist advection each keep effective inflow parcels nearly
sfc-based.

..edwards.. 04/26/2009

Replacement tornado watch...
WWUS30 KWNS 262312
SAW5
SPC AWW 262312
WW 195 TORNADO KS OK TX 262315Z - 270800Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45WNW EMP/EMPORIA KS/ - 90SW SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /38SE SLN - 36NNE ABI/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

REPLACES WW 190..KS OK TX
REPLACES WW 192..OK TX

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0195_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
EMPORIA KANSAS TO 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 190...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 192. WATCH NUMBER 190 192
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 615 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 193...WW
194...

DISCUSSION...COMBINATION OF EXTREME LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALONG
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL BE SUSTAINED AS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO
STRUCTURES. TORNADO THREAT REMAINS HIGH WITH ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE AS LLJ
INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

WT 0195 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 70%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 80%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

Now I don't want to go to sleep tonight.. there is probably nothing worse than a night tornado.

Mike Morgan after it again. Three supercells headed toward metro. Peak time between 7:45 and 11 ish. Guess I need to go get the closet prepped. May just sleep there with motorcycle helmet on. Oh boy.

MM said the type of tornado watch is PSA or PDA? (did I hear that correctly weather fans?) - something to the effect that this elevates the severity of the storms (any potential tornados) to a minimum F3.

Yikes!:omg:

PDS - Particularly Dangerous Situation. If you look at my post a couple back, i have the watch details and probabilities...one is about the tornado intensity.

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 70%

So that just means than at least 70% chance of at least 1 EF2 or higher.