So, does this impact the notion that we are a "recession-proof" city?

Just wondering.

Check out the full story on OKCBiz.

link: OKCBiz > OKC mayor expresses concern over tax-receipt decline (http://www.okc.biz/article/03-11-2009/OKC_mayor_expresses_concern_over_tax-receipt_decline.aspx)

This shouldn't be a surprise, the national economy has been tanking since last September. We were one of about 5 cities to even post positive growth since then. That's nothing to complain about amidst a recession and perhaps eventual depression. We live in a global world, eventually the downturn will catch us too.

Why hasn't there been any negative effects in Oklahoma from the huge, huge drop in oil prices? It seems like going from $150 per barrel to $35 per barrel would have some sort of adverse effect on OKC at some point.

It has. I know plenty of people at smaller companies and contract workers who have been let go. The majority of companies keeping workers are under hiring freezes. It's really going to hurt when next years budget figures are going to be released.

As low as oil prices are though, it should be noted that it isn't hemorrhaging at nearly the level of the automakers, finance sector, manufacturing, construction, real estate, etc. so Oklahoma looks better compared to most.

I remember gas used to be at 70 to 80 cents a gallon.

So, why the panic when oil prices go into the 30s?

Companies just need to readjust, lay off the excess workers, and move on.

Not to mention, the large companies are more into natural gas than oil....

OKC is far from recession-proof. It's just that we're well positioned to ride out this particular recession. Will we be affected? Of course. But we aren't feeling near the impact that other cities are.

Current oil prices are decent -- our industries can make a good profit and be successful with prices at current levels, assuming they didn't get blinded by dollar signs and believe that crap about $200 oil. If they did, and they overinvested and gambled, they could find themselves in a very tight financial situation (from accounts, Chesapeake was doing some of this, but Devon kept their heads on straight and didn't).

Our housing prices were never very overinflated, and while we've seen the values of some homes dropping, it's not to the degree that it is a major economic concern. We don't seem to have as many people who were playing the musical chairs housing game as was happening elsewhere. So we've escaped there.

However, all economies are tied together. OKC can't stand alone. If the rest of the country is hurting, we'll start feeling it as well.

No one said OKC was "recession-proof". Forbes called us the "most recession-proof".

The design/construction companies here are being hit pretty hard, as they are all over the place. Without financing, which is hard to get because of the banking crisis, you can't build anything resulting in a sharp downtown in construction, even here aside from recently-started projects or projects financed before the bust like the Devon Tower. I know several architects here who have been laid off, and as construction slides so will unemployment.

I hate to say it, but I'm fairly certain it's going to hit hard here in three to six months. My guess is our unemployment rate will reach 8 percent. This will be well below the peak unemployment rate of 12 percent we're going to have nationally.

The banks are pulling back credit lines for individuals and small business, and they're also not lending. This is regardless of credit rating.

Small biz is a big factor here, and small biz is being hit hard by the credit freeze. The mass layoffs and job losses (though not a problem here so far) are feeding the problem.

The banks are doing exactly what they should NOT be doing to help the economy. They should be lending to responsible business owners, but they are not.

Remember, small biz employs more than 90 percent of Americans. If the lending doesn't happen fast we're going to be looking at an economic Armageddon.

I hate to say it, but I'm fairly certain it's going to hit hard here in three to six months. My guess is our unemployment rate will reach 8 percent. This will be well below the peak unemployment rate of 12 percent we're going to have nationally.

The banks are pulling back credit lines for individuals and small business, and they're also not lending. This is regardless of credit rating.

Small biz is a big factor here, and small biz is being hit hard by the credit freeze. The mass layoffs and job losses (though not a problem here so far) are feeding the problem.

The banks are doing exactly what they should NOT be doing to help the economy. They should be lending to responsible business owners, but they are not.

Remember, small biz employs more than 90 percent of Americans. If the lending doesn't happen fast we're going to be looking at an economic Armageddon.

Looks like the president read your post Guru

WASHINGTON (AP) — Amid misgivings over his spending blueprint, President Barack Obama has decided to provide billions of dollars in federal lending aid aimed at struggling small business owners.

The broad package of measures to be announced Monday includes $730 million from the stimulus plan that will immediately reduce small-business lending fees and increase the government guarantee on some Small Business Administration loans to 90 percent. The government also will take aggressive steps to boost bank liquidity with more than $10 billion aimed at unfreezing the secondary credit market, according to officials briefed on the plan who demanded anonymity to avoid pre-empting the president's announcement.

"It's a huge step in the right direction," Giovanni Coratolo, director of Small Business Policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said Saturday. "In this economy, having the least amount of risk for banks will incentivize banks to lend to small businesses. A lot of small businesses will benefit from this."

Thank God. The only thing I worry about is if the emphasis is only on SBA loans. Those loans are not disbursed quickly. I have zero doubt that the prez understands the problem. None. I'm just not sure the SBA is the right mechanism to get things moving quickly.

According to Bloomberg SBA is only guaranteeing less than $10 Billion this year anyway. The same article says the SBA part of the program will be to increase guarantees from 75% to 90% on loans over $150,000 and from 85% to 90% on loans under $150,000. SBA lending guarantees has been in the $20 Billion range.

At least this part of the effort seems more about being able to say the administration did something for small business than actually doing anything.

I haven't found anymore details on other elements.

I did hear someone say that there might be a capital gains tax reduction in the plan. That might actually help some.

There must be more to it because they are talking about more than $300 Billion and the SBA portion is certainly not going to approach that level.

I'll await details. I actually know some small businesses that only have a couple of months left before they will have to shutter if something isn't done. The economy isn't that bad in Oklahoma, obviously. But this would change in a hurry if the banks continue to deny responsible businesses the lines of credit they need to operate. There are a ton of businesses, mostly retail, that earn more than 50 percent of their revenues in the fourth quarter. They rely on these credit lines to keep them going until they hit paydirt at the end of the year. Most importantly, small business is the true engine of our economy, employing most people. We hear about the big corporate layoffs, but we do not hear about all the mom and pop shops that hang it up and let people go. If there were a mass wave of such businesses going under it would be catastrophic for the economy. I'm hopeful the action announced today is able to prevent this.