View Full Version : Severe Weather Risk - 3/9/2009



venture
03-09-2009, 09:48 AM
This was originally posted in the Politics/Current Events forum but unfortunately, it gets buried under all the political screaming like every other non-political post there. LOL

Welcome to Spring...well from a meteorological point of view. : )

Slight risk for severe weather today across most of the state. Main threats seems to be hail, wind and tornadoes - which I guess is just about everything. Main show looks to start in mid-Afternoon through evening. Two target areas, one will be from Central OK up through the Northeast. The second will be up and down Western Oklahoma along the dryline - that will come east into the Metro later in the evening. Main inhibiting factors look to be cloud cover and any activity that starts up tonight.

Below are some images that should auto refresh throughout the day to make sure the best info is in this first post.

Links:
NWSFO Norman Enhanced Page: NWS Norman, Oklahoma - Enhanced Weather Page (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php)
SPC Mesoanalysis Page: SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis Page (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=6)
WRF-NMM 4KM Forecast Model: 4.0 km WRF-NMM Precipitation Graphics (http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/v2/)

SPC Day 1 Outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

Satellite Image (1KM)
http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma.gif

NEXRAD Mosaic Radar
http://weather.cod.edu/data/nexrad/Oklahoma.gif

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions (red air temp, green dewpoint)
http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

venture
03-09-2009, 09:52 AM
Storm initiation is slowly going now in western Oklahoma with one loan cell. Model data seems to indicate that we'll have one or two isolated storms develop this afternoon and move through Central OK. Then we'll have a strong/severe line develop tonight in western OK that will break apart as it moves towards us and become a broken line of maybe supercells heading our way.

Cloud cover is hanging pretty tight now, but some breaks are developing. If the sun breaks out for a longer period of time, the more "fun" we all get to have. Latest mesonet has the 50 degree dewpoiunts well into the OKC Metro now, so moisture return is well under way. Additional updates out in about an hour.

Side note - thought this was amusing. It is the opening paragraph from the NWS Norman office's forecast discussion for today.


DISCUSSION...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST... ON MULTIPLE LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE
NEXT 7 DAYS. ISSUES OF GREATEST SIGNIFICANCE ARE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION OF MAJOR CHILLDOWN LATER IN THE WEEK... AND POTENTIAL FOR
ONE OR MORE WINTER PRECIP EVENTS LATTER HALF OF WEEK. OTHER
CHALLENGES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HIGHS... LOWS... POPS...
CLOUDS... SEVERE POTENTIAL... PRECIP TYPE... AND FIRE WEATHER. AS
FOR PLATE TECTONICS... WE WILL DEFER TO USGS AND OKLAHOMA GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUALS FROM YESTERDAY`S
MAGNITUDE 3.5 EARTHQUAKE IN OKLAHOMA CITY. AT LEAST ALASKA`S REDOUBT
VOLCANO IS FAIRLY QUIET - FOR NOW.

jstanthrnme
03-09-2009, 11:05 AM
venture79-
The last time you started a severe weather thread, it was almost prophetic. That said, I hope this isn't a jinx.
Regardless, keep up the good work. Unleash your knowledge.

venture
03-09-2009, 11:07 AM
Here are the updates. First Mesoscale Discussion from SPC on possibility of watch of for ongoing and afternoon activity.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0216.gif

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...NRN OK...SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091551Z - 091715Z

THE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS WRN
AND NRN OK LATE INTO FAR SRN KS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF SW OK AND
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO POSE A HAIL THREAT. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL OK
LATE THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION FROM FAR WRN OK GRADUALLY MOVES NEWD
INTO THE MOIST AXIS. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S F NEAR
THE STORM IN WRN OK...THE OUN SOUNDINGS SHOWS AN ELEVATED MOIST
PLUME JUST BELOW 850 MB. THIS ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT THE ACTIVITY NEWD INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SFC TEMPS WARM...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND
THE CONVECTION MAY BECOME SFC-BASED RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION WITH TIME. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 55 TO 65 KT
ON THE PURCELL AND LAMONT OK PROFILERS ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
/RUC ANALYZED 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C/ SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT AS STORMS INTENSIFY. IF THE CELLS CAN BECOME
SFC-BASED...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

No HWO update from Norman WFO just as of yet.

---

Ongoing storm in Blaine County is pretty much heavy rain and a bunch of lightning. Overall nothing that impressive. Trends continue towards weakening. Broken skies over OK continue to develop. Moisture is surging north with the warm front with dewpoints in the 60s getting more and more widespread. Short term forecast models all continue to show scattered/isolated development through this afternoon, and then a strong squall line developing between 5-8PM tonight across western Oklahoma that will march east.

venture
03-09-2009, 11:18 AM
venture79-
The last time you started a severe weather thread, it was almost prophetic. That said, I hope this isn't a jinx.
Regardless, keep up the good work. Unleash your knowledge.

One of these times things will flop, but i try to keep these threads mostly informational with some opinion here and there.

I don't think today is a major tornado threat for us by any stretch. Looks like most of that will be just north of the City, but things can change and we all know they probably will now that I just said that. LOL

Nermel
03-09-2009, 11:20 AM
Interesting jump in tornado % for NE Oklahoma when the latest convective outlook came out:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif

westsidesooner
03-09-2009, 11:30 AM
Venture, Thanks for the updates. I'm glad I'm not the only one who finds severe weather interesting. I noticed the clouds are clearing quickly from the south and its getting pretty warm, so maybe it'll get interesting later today. We really need the rain.

You might find this sight interesting NWS HotSeat - The NWS Warning Decision Simulator (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/HotSeat/hotseatstart.shtml)

A little O.T. ----> Did you happen to read the forecast discussion on the NWS sight for later in the week?

Quote from NWS:

TEMPS LIKELY TO CRASH TUE NIGHT AS COLD AIR SURGES S. THIS IS AN
IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR THIS LATE IN THE COLD SEASON - PRECIP FORECAST IS THE GREATER CHALLENGE FOR MID-LATE WEEK. LONGWAVE
PATTERN IS SETTING UP IN A WAY THAT WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBLE SNOW...
AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IF THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE RIGHT.

venture
03-09-2009, 11:50 AM
Yeah. One thing is for sure, Norman is never a boring office to work at for those guys. LOL

Smokin Joe
03-09-2009, 12:45 PM
ANd then we are gonna got back down into the 30's and 40's... Great... and everything that I have is starting to bloom....

Joe

venture
03-09-2009, 01:17 PM
Looks like CU (cumulus) field is starting to develop across Central and SW Oklahoma. These are areas that have been partly to mostly cloudy for most of the day now. Dewpoints now range from upper 50s to low 60s across most of the area. Warm front is lingering just north of the OKC Metro area with the dryline extending from W of Fairview to Taloga to Butler to Sayre to Hollis. Winds mostly from the S to SSW across the area, some minor backing in the far north due to convection up in that area.

More thoughts in a second, MCD has been issued for the area as I was typing this.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0217.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX / CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091913Z - 092015Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE STEADILY THIS AFTN. A WW MAY
BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS 20Z.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF
N-CNTRL TX AND S-CNTRL OK. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAPID
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE S-CNTRL PLAINS BEHIND WARM FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F IN OKLA WITH LOWER 60S IN
N-CNTRL TX. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN PART DUE TO DIABATIC
HEATING--RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT PBL MIXING OF 925-875 MB MOISTURE
TO SURFACE.

CONVECTIVE INITIATING UNCERTAINTIES ARE WHETHER ISOLD TSTMS CAN
BREACH THE CAP THIS AFTN ALONG LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF
INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM NM. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP WILL WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY IN SWRN OK --FSI 79/60F-- BY 21-22Z. IF THIS OCCURS
/20-22Z PERIOD/ A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
STRONG...VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HGHT WILL FAVOR DISCRETE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONGER LIVED
SUPERCELL AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TOWARDS 00Z.

..SMITH.. 03/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

Karried
03-09-2009, 01:46 PM
Great, kids are out for Spring Break next week.. snow? snow???

I knew I should booked Cancun.

OKCMallen
03-09-2009, 01:47 PM
Venture, I love your updates. Very informative. Thanks!

venture
03-09-2009, 01:50 PM
Initial dryline development is showing signs of starting. Concentrated line of CU going up in far NW Oklahoma from NE of Buffalo to Shattuck. Radar in the area is indicating some very weak echos that matches up with the area. CU field across the rest of the state continues to firm up pretty good. Should see the watch roll out here shortly.

jstanthrnme
03-09-2009, 02:07 PM
Hope nobody was looking forward to the premier of Dancing with the Stars, I'd bet that Rick Mitchell will preempt it.

What kind of watch do you expect venture?

westsidesooner
03-09-2009, 02:12 PM
I love your updates too V. Thanks again. Looks like there is a storm trying to form just west of childress. Also a wildfire (ugh) showing up on radar in western Mcclain county, bring on the rain!!!!!

venture
03-09-2009, 02:21 PM
They may default with a tornado watch, we'll see. Good pick up on the Childress cell, we'll see what happens. Some of the echos in the NW are slowly picking up, will be interesting to see how badly this shear blows things apart today.

jstanthrnme
03-09-2009, 02:43 PM
Winds are primarily out of the south, could this push most of the severe weather into KS, or does it mean the line will move slower than expected to the E?

jstanthrnme
03-09-2009, 02:52 PM
A tornado watch has just been issued including OKC.

Nermel
03-09-2009, 02:53 PM
Watch #52 is out until 10pm.

hasn't been posted to the spc's website...here is the prelim watch:

AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35SSW FSI/FORT SILL OK/ - 35NW CNU/CHANUTE KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /12N SPS - 63NNW OSW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040

SoonerQueen
03-09-2009, 02:53 PM
The OKC area is officially in a tornado watch. Nothing is going on right now. Stay safe everyone.

venture
03-09-2009, 02:56 PM
This is what I get for watching West Wing re-runs right now. LOL

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0052_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 52
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CU/TCU FIELD CONTINUES TO GROW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
OK...WHILE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES INTO SOUTHEAST KS. LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER FORCING IS MOVING THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SOON OVER WESTERN OK.
THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WATCH AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

Thunder
03-09-2009, 02:59 PM
Plenty sun here, pluffy clouds, but plenty of openings. I can feel the heat, the air and the sun. I think most importantly is what heats above us, specifically the clouds. Those areas are for sure being heated by the sun, plus take into account of lightnings being hotter than the sun.

Wind shear will be abundant, so expect rotations in many of the passing storms.

As I find severe storms exciting, I also hope it won't rain at Crest!!! I gotta work this afternoon thru evening.

Just picture this, pushing a cart full of grocery out to a car and seeing a funnel coming my way!

OKCisOK4me
03-09-2009, 03:16 PM
Plenty sun here, pluffy clouds, but plenty of openings. I can feel the heat, the air and the sun. I think most importantly is what heats above us, specifically the clouds. Those areas are for sure being heated by the sun, plus take into account of lightnings being hotter than the sun.

Wind shear will be abundant, so expect rotations in many of the passing storms.

As I find severe storms exciting, I also hope it won't rain at Crest!!! I gotta work this afternoon thru evening.

Just picture this, pushing a cart full of grocery out to a car and seeing a funnel coming my way!

HUH???



Which one? If it's the one here at NW 23rd & Meridian, I'll be sure to watch the parking lot from over here near CiCi's as you run through it! ;-)

soonerguru
03-09-2009, 03:19 PM
I shop at that Crest. Love it!

Thunder
03-09-2009, 03:25 PM
The small one on Reno in MWC. I'm the deaf dude.

OKCisOK4me
03-09-2009, 03:26 PM
The small one on Reno in MWC. I'm the deaf dude.


I don't go to that one.

venture
03-09-2009, 03:28 PM
Instability has peaked out it seems. Cell by Childress is around Cordell right now, but nothing to it. It try to establish it self but then got sheared apart and is just a few clouds blowing through now.

Looking at another attempt to build up in the northwest, but it is struggling a bit. We are still outside the time frame though for when I expected things to go. So time to be patient. :)

Bobby821
03-09-2009, 03:29 PM
Hopefully we willget some good severe weather today tonight and this entire storm season comming up. Hopefully it will not be a bust like the past few have been, Bring it on !!!!!

Thunder
03-09-2009, 03:57 PM
KFOR was showing that southwestern part is the main watch area for storms to fire up.

They are saying 6pm thru 10pm for OKC, so if any is going to reach OKC by 6pm then they must be poppin up by now. So far, still quiet.

Nermel
03-09-2009, 04:00 PM
This is what I get for watching West Wing re-runs right now. LOL

Do what I do, just have the listserv from the SIU weather processor feed to a gmail account, setup filters. Then setup a 2nd gmail account, and further tweak the filters then you can have watches and MD's that affect Oklahoma sent to your cell phone as a text message.

These cells could move very fast if/when they form today.

venture
03-09-2009, 04:04 PM
Nermel, I've had that going for like 10 years already. : )

Two areas of interest right now. The one cell up by Newkirk moving into Osage county is something, but its moving away. Back to the west, indications are that the dryline is about to start going up. I would focus most attention to that area in the next hour.

Metro impact definitely will be after 7pm...probably 8-10pm. General rule of thumb, though not always the case, take the time the watch expires and look at the eastern edge of it. That is a pretty good guide on where they expect storms to be at expiration.

Nermel
03-09-2009, 04:26 PM
Venture: Do you use GR2Analyst? I'm contemplating breaking down and paying for it.

Incidentally, I love viewing this stuff in google earth... Couple of good urls:

Realtime WDSSII Weather Data (KML) (http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/?r=products) <-- good NWS data

Spotter Network (http://www.spotternetwork.org/feeds.php) <- live spotter locations, etc

venture
03-09-2009, 04:33 PM
Yes I do. Got it a couple years ago for chasing and absolutely love it. I get a kick out of the fact that KWTV uses it now. : ) Plus the support and openness of Mike (the developer) is like no other software product I use.

Update..development is sustained now in SW Oklahoma in southern Harmon, W Jackson, and Northern Hardeman (TX) Counties. Other sporadic development in NW Oklahoma - but nothing to write about yet.

venture
03-09-2009, 04:36 PM
Rapid development now under way in Harmon/Jackson Counties moving NE around 25 mph. Additional development further SW into Texas also moving NE.

venture
03-09-2009, 04:38 PM
Something unrelated that I missed. If only they had rain coming...probably will go just east of them.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF HARPER
COUNTY EMERGNCY MANAGEMENT.

AT 5:10 PM... A LARGE WILDFIRE WAS LOCATED THREE-QUARTERS OF A MILE
WEST OF THE TOWN OF LAVERNE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TOWN OF
LAVERNE. PERSONS IN LAVERNE ARE REQUESTED TO EVACUATE NORTH ALONG
HIGHWAY 283 OR EAST ALONG HIGHWAY 149 TOWARD BUFFALO. PERSONS ARE
ASKED TO GO TO THE FAIRGROUNDS IN BUFFALO.

venture
03-09-2009, 04:58 PM
Watching the SW OK storms, some lightning with them now. Looking at them in a 3D view, these things are really getting blown over a lot. We'll see what this means later on, should be in a more favorable atmosphere for tornadoes east of US 281.

Two other cells, Custer County near Custer City and Woodward County SE of Woodward...are trying to bust through and are slowly getting better.

venture
03-09-2009, 05:10 PM
First opportunity for severe weather will be sell in Hardeman County, TX right now - just across the river. Currently show to have the most intense core with some small hail developing - up to 0.51" right now (though the estimate may be overdone). It should move NE just south of Altus in the next 30-45 min.

venture
03-09-2009, 05:26 PM
New MCD concerning ongoing activity in SW.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0219.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...

VALID 092311Z - 100015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 52 CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF REGION.
BUT...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR THE
INITIATION OF STORMS IN THE CHILDRESS/ALTUS AREA. THIS IS JUST EAST
OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS AROUND 1000
J/KG. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED 50-60 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD. THIS WILL TEND TO ADVECT
STORMS INTO AREAS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DO NOT APPEAR AS LARGE AS FARTHER
NORTH...ALONG THE WARM FRONT...THEY APPEAR SIZABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A RIGHTWARD TURN OF STRONGER CELLS INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AREA...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COMMENCES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...IN ADDITION
TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 03/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...OUN...

venture
03-09-2009, 05:46 PM
Well I was off. LOL

643 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 643 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CAPRON TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DACOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WINDS OF 65 MPH ARE
LIKELY.

Nermel
03-09-2009, 05:58 PM
Is the Gary England Drinking Game being activated?

http://www.okctalk.com/okc-underground/6065-gary-england-drinking-game.html

venture
03-09-2009, 06:00 PM
LOL. Gotta love that.

Next warning out.

655 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 655 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF MOUNTAIN PARK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WINDS OF
65 MPH ARE LIKELY.

venture
03-09-2009, 06:20 PM
One of the many live storm chaser feeds - few are on the storms in SW OK.

http://tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

venture
03-09-2009, 06:53 PM
Current down trend in activity as it seems shear is tearing it all apart. There is some redevelopment on the back side that could over take it. We'll just have to sit tight and watch. Better dynamics are to the east a bit more - so we'll see.

rod4soonrs
03-09-2009, 06:59 PM
looks like it may turn to a squall line

Bobby821
03-09-2009, 07:02 PM
Looks like OKC got jipped out of the severe weather again It figures how it always goes.

venture
03-09-2009, 07:07 PM
Mesoscale discussion 0221
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0801 pm cdt mon mar 09 2009

areas affected...parts of wrn/cntrl ok

concerning...tornado watch 52...

Valid 100101z - 100200z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 52 continues.

Discrete boundary layer based...or near boundary layer based...
Storms continue to develop northeastward...just to the west of the
oklahoma city metro area. Surface temperatures have begun to slowly
fall...but an increase in low-level moisture is ongoing... Mostly
within an elevated warm advection regime along/west of a low-level
jet axis which has begun to strengthen across eastern oklahoma into
the missouri/kansas border area. As these processes continue into
the 03-04z time frame...storms may continue to increase within a
low-level confluence zone to the west of the low- level jet
axis...from west central oklahoma into south central/ southeast
kansas. But...with the exception of perhaps along the immediate
vicinity of the warm frontal zone across southern kansas...the risk
for tornadoes may diminish. Locally damaging wind gusts will remain
a possibility...however. Training cells may also begin to yield
some heavy rain totals.

..kerr.. 03/10/2009

venture
03-09-2009, 08:37 PM
Unless things pick up, this will be my last update tonight on this. :)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0222.gif

0925 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL OK INTO SE KS AND SWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...

VALID 100225Z - 100330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 52 CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE 03Z.

MID/UPPER FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEAST OF
A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MIGRATING EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS/ OKLAHOMA
BORDER THROUGH 03-06Z. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE A LINGERING SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS MAY
PERSIST ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST WEST OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.

ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING
ABOVE A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE WARM SECTOR NEAR SURFACE AIR
MASS STILL SEEMS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL. WITH
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGING AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB
LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KTS...THE RISK OF A
TORNADIC SUPERCELL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
THIS STILL SEEMS TO EXIST NEAR THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
BUT...AT LEAST A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..KERR.. 03/10/2009

braums manager
03-09-2009, 08:49 PM
i love severe weather

Thunder
03-09-2009, 11:23 PM
Beside some heavy rain and frequent lightning, it doesn't seem like it was that bad.

Just a typical thunderstorm. lol

venture
03-10-2009, 01:08 AM
Pretty much what sums up today is that there was way too much shear (too much of a good thing) that ripped these storms apart before they could become established. Most we got were some hail and wind reports, nothing terrible for Oklahoma. Still way early yet though in the season. :)

Thunder
03-10-2009, 01:18 AM
Yeah, I couldn't believe it ripped these storms apart. Usually it pushes them so fast together into a huge squall line.

Bobby821
03-10-2009, 09:51 AM
They just fizzled and OKC area missed out on anything severe as usual. Such a downer. Heres hoping for next time

Karried
03-10-2009, 10:12 AM
Last night was the first time my Ferret heard loud thunder.. lol.. he was looking around and probably thinking 'wth'?

I let him on our bed with us until the storm passed!

Thank God he has always been around music, drums and very loud amps (upstairs)... he probably assumed the kids were rocking out again.

westsidesooner
03-10-2009, 11:40 AM
Not to get OT but since the risk has passed, and I didn't want to start a new thread, here goes.

Karrieds frightened ferret story got me to thinking. Lets say a tornado is heading your way and you only have 5 minutes to take cover. Assuming you don't have a basement. Obviously you get your family in the safest place available. If you have time, or planned ahead you'd then worry about helmets for their heads, steel toed boots, a flashlight, your wallet, a cell phone (good luck getting a signal during a disaster).....all the things you want to have with you if your home is hit. Then what do you do with the animals? We have 2 cats. One of them hates the pet carrier so in an emergency when theres stress involved that'd take to long. And I'm not hunkerin down in a closet with a terrified claw machine. I'm sure several large dogs, or even a frightened ferret could also be a problem in a closet or small bathroom.

What do you do with your animals/pets when a serious storm is heading for your home?

Karried
03-10-2009, 11:47 AM
lol, funny you should ask that.. the last tornados (last month) I left the Dog out to run ( black lab, no way he is coming in the shelter.. he won't go down the stairs - I've tried and tried to drag him down), and I left my kitties in the house.. but my ferret went straight into his carrier and down into the shelter with us! I grabbed his food and water and off we went, twice!

So we take Teddy down in the shelter in his carrier (which is canvas mesh/fabric and zippers/velcro).

Funny thing.....if you've read any of my posts, I am simply Petrified of anything remotely resembling a rodent etc..

My 11 year old and I are sitting in the shelter alone with a flashlight listening intently to the radio and the storm .. Teddy's carrier is on the floor... out of the corner of my eye I see a 'rodent' run across the shelter floor! I'm screaming like a banshee and putting my feet up on the chair... lo and behold, Teddy figured out the zipper and was exploring our shelter! ha,ha.. I laugh at myself now but talk about freaking out - I'm such a dork.

Heavy sigh. It's always interesting at our house. lol

But, it is a hard decision on what to do with the animals. My dog is tagged and has his collar on.. my kitties could survive a few weeks outside probably ( they can hunt ) but the silly ferret is 100% helpless ( they can't survive more than a day or two in the wild.. they don't know how to get food or even water :-( and he's helpless in his cage ... I can't do that to him. He's my baby.

westsidesooner
03-10-2009, 12:14 PM
Yeah, I've picked up on your rodentphobia before. It surprised me when you decided on a ferret. The pics you posted in the pets forum of Teddy are great. How do you feel about squirrels then? Our neighborhood is overrun with them. I used to think they were neat. I was so wrong. Tree rats is all they are.

Why is your dog afraid of the shelter? I can understand being afraid of a carrier/transport to the torture facility device, but whats so spooky about your shelter? Is it underground?

Karried
03-10-2009, 12:19 PM
Yeah, you have to go down about 5 steps straight down.. he won't do it. A few years ago, we tried to carry him down ( he weighs about 90 lbs.. I couldn't push, pull or coax him down).

The cats are smart.. they would probably do fine.. but they run and hide when they hear thunder and the sirens and when you're trying to get to the shelter, you can't find them.

I just can't leave this little guy to fend for himself.

http://i290.photobucket.com/albums/ll267/Karried1/029.jpg

FritterGirl
03-10-2009, 04:19 PM
We turn our master bedroom closet into a shelter during the spring. Along with our "ready kit" (flashlights, batt operated radio, work gloves, extra dog leashes, rain panchos, etc.) and the extra motorcycle helmets, we also throw in two extra kennels - one for the cats (smaller) and one for the 3 dogs (bigger). Neither is the perfect size, but if the storms get too close, we throw everyone in the closet, I hunker down with them, and husband keeps an eye on TV.

Last night one of the cats got out and was out apparently until AFTER the storm came and went. Thank goodness it was all show. I found him in the neighbor's yard after the dogs started alerting to something at about 3 a.m.. He was a bit wet, but no worse for the wear.

Hated to know he was out in it, but he didn't come when I tried to get him back in earlier in the evening, so I guess that's the price he had to pay for staying out.