Hope everyone is good on sleep...looks like the typical June "Northwest Flow" weather pattern is setting up. It has been awhile since we have seen these classic setups, but we remember what they are like. Typically this is when we get the large bow complex that dives south from Kansas into Oklahoma. These complexes have some hail with them, but usually it is the winds from 70-100mph that can end up being pretty widespread. Since some have expressed a real interest in this weather junk lately, i'll try to throw in some decent information here. It isn't 100% of what people look at for making forecasts, but what I would hope gives people some behind the scenes stuff to look at.

First round gets started tonight.

The Day 1 Outlook: Storm Prediction Center Jun 15, 2008 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_sm.gif

NWSFO Norman's Enhanced Weather Page: NWS Norman, Oklahoma - Enhanced Weather Page (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php)

Short term forecast model with simulated radar display: http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/nmmwrf.refc_animate_1h.html

A couple other things worth pointing out...

sbcp (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/meso.php?sector=1&parm=sbcp)

This is just an estimated amount of energy that storms will have to work with. Anything over 1 is considered unstable, thought for severe storms you are really wanting in the area of 2000 or more. On this map, anything with a blue shadding shows where there is something that is currently inhibiting convective development.

xover (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/meso.php?sector=1&parm=xover)

Map that shows the winds at the 850MB level and 500MB level. 850MB is a few thousand feet off the ground usually, and 500MB is up in the middle levels...say around 20K feet - but it all depends. Typically if there is decent shear, winds from different directions, that helps with the supercell aspect of storms for hail and tornadoes. Ideally you want a SE wind at 850MB and a W wind at 500MB...but any significant difference can help getting the storms to rotate. For today, not a primary concern at all...though looks like out west may have a better chance for rotating storms along the dryline.

This is verified by this:

scp (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/meso.php?sector=1&parm=scp)

That is the Supercell Composite map...showing the better locations for supercell development.

As far as Hail goes...this is a great map here, as it outlines where the best potential is for large hail - especially in the early part of the storm cycle. As we transition to the large storm complexes, the hail chances typically go down.

sigh (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/meso.php?sector=1&parm=sigh)

Derecho Composite will be one watched today and throughout the week. These are the large, widespread, damaing wind events. Though I've seen the wind events happen with the numbers on this map have been low, it definitely help provides some guidance.

dcp (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/meso.php?sector=1&parm=dcp)

Lastly with all the rain, flooding will probably happen. Here is a decent map showing how much water is sitting above you.

pwtr (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/meso.php?sector=1&parm=pwtr)

Again...just throwing this stuff out there for people to look at and see how things are forecasted and such. Each forecast mesoanalysis map is updated every hour, so when things may not look great now - they are always changing.

Finishing up by pointing out two time frames on the WRF model for today.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/refc_f23.gif

That is for about 6PM tonight, showing the apparent supercell storms out west and developing complex in Kansas.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/refc_f29.gif

Around Midnight tonight, the large complex moves into the Metro area.

Pretty cool.. too bad they have to hit in the middle of the night.

I hate to be up all night watching and listening for tornadic activity.

Do you think there might be a chance tonight of anything more severe than strong winds and hail, or should we be concerned about tornadoes?

Nah, this really isn't a pattern for tornadic weather. Which is good and bad. With widespread winds over 80-100mph, where they can be sustained for 5-15 minutes at a time, the damage can actually turn out just like a tornado in a more widespread fashion.

Of course it all depends where the complexes and boundaries setup for where these things will go.

Oh man, how cool is all that stuff. After I eat something, I am going to sit down and study it closer. Maybe I will learn something, today. Thanks!!!

Thanks Venture, that eases my mind..

I have a teenage guest from CA visiting for a few weeks ... last thing I want to have to do is call his parents and tell them we were struck by a tornado..

God knows they are so worried about that enough already .. lol

Karrie, Last thing you should worry about is getting hit by a tornado. :)

Storm initiation is rolling now out west and north. The Kansas is further west than initially thought, so if this can form into a complex, it would have a pretty good shot at coming into OKC. The stuff out west is going more south, but won't take much to pull it east.

I can't find any of the chasers out there with live feed, but SevereStudios.com | The World's Eyes & Ears For Severe Weather (http://www.severestudios.com) has a good number. None in our area of the Plains today.

I love stormy weather and thunderstorms. I would hate being caught in a tornado though. I wish I knew more about meteorology. I love watching the clouds.I think storm chasing would be exciting. Mostly I like rain. It's kinda like free water for the lawn.

Yeah, the typical NW-flow storms usually occur during early-mid summer, although they have also occurred in late summer as well. Another name for the intense fast-moving Mesoscale Convective Systems that move at up to 60mph somtimes is "derecho." Sometimes these things become squall lines and then you start looking for "bow-echoes", basically parts in the line where the squall line signature on radar curves outward or forms a bow shape (thus bow-echo). If you saw radar last night, the squall line just north of the OK-KS border had a similar shape, and not surprisngly some very strong winds associated with it.

I think "Karried" gets carried away with tornadic fear.

I think "Karried" gets carried away with tornadic fear.

Nice.....

I had to say that!

Venture, thanks for the great info! Do you think there will be storms all night tonight and tomorrow? From the look of things, will this be a stormy summer?

Tonight yeah...if you go to the links above, plenty of info at them. I would really bookmark the NWS Norman office page - they are amazing in the info they give out.

For the summer, who knows. I wouldn't mind more storms...usually means no drought and cooler temps. We'll see.

Well, I'm sure we all remember last June when it rained for 40 days and 40 nights...

I think "Karried" gets carried away with tornadic fear.


lol.... actually it's Karrie and then Dee ... but it was cute anyway...

mmonroe, I challenge you to a natural disaster stand off.. come to CA with me, and let's see who gets 'carried' away.

I'll bet you'll jump off the nearest balcony when a good shaker comes along... I, however, will be still sitting on the couch, trying to not spill my drink .. ha,ha......

I think it all depends on what you're used to and familiar with. Having lived in CA all my life and seeing the damage (which is extremely sensationalized on the news) do you blame me for thinking a tornado will drop out of the sky and suck my entire family up?

I'm getting better, be glad you didn't know me the first year I lived here. I was scared to death! This is calm for me! lol

Well, May 3rd, 1999, my Great-grandfather and his wife were killed here in Midwest City by the tornado, but I still go out on the front porch when I hear about one. I've also been storm chasing and have been less than a mile from one while doing it. I was also standing on the porch of my aunts house when a tornado hit two blocks down the street on Berryman Road between 44th and 59th just east of Tinker. I got some nice scrapes on my leg from debris. [Don't worry, I eventually ran out to the storm seller.]

But i've also been in earth quakes. Not too bad, especially in a car, and you don't feel anything.

Well, May 3rd, 1999, my Great-grandfather and his wife were killed here in Midwest City by the tornado, but I still go out on the front porch when I hear about one.


That's horrible, sorry to hear of it.

It's more my kids that I'm worried about.

He was 81, she was 45, they always talked about wanting to go at the same time. They tried to get away by car, the tornado pushed them into a tree, he hit the steering wheel, it stopped his heart, and well.. she was a larger women and the details are too much to share. But they both got to go at the same time with each other. That's the only thing that kept the family together during mourning.

Well, I'm sure we all remember last June when it rained for 40 days and 40 nights...

And July, and August and...