I've seen estimates that only about 30-40 year's-worth of oil is left. I'm pretty sure we'll see huge global effects when the oil dries up, but what's to become of OKC? Do you think OKC will become diversified enough to withstand the huge economic loss by then? Does anyone know what steps OKC is taking to soften the inevitable blow?

I just got to thinking the other day.

I seem to recall that 30 years ago, there was only about 30-40 years' worth left.

besides devon - which isnt even considered a mid sized oil company, what other oil companys are even here for it to affect us?

cheasapeke - but dont they mostly deal with natural gas?


I personally think places like dallas/houston will be hit alot harder.

Well, you have to think you have all the drilling companies here in Oklahoma, which is a MAJOR source of employment, then you have the random oilfield services too. Most of nw Oklahoma's income is SOULY based on the income brought in from those businesses. So you can't only think about the oil companies, you have to think about the companies that give the services for them to even exist.

I know of over 5 different drilling companies which employ over 1,000 employees each, then you have roustabout services, which generally employ between 200-500 each depending on size, and there are at least 100 roustabout services in Oklahoma, and many dozens' of other types of companies. A big part of weather our economy will be able to handle it will be the job market. We will have 10,000+ ppl. easily out of jobs looking to work, and as it stands right now, there's just not those kinds of openings in Oklahoma by ANY means.

This is just coming from a youngin's eyes though.

cheasapeke - but dont they mostly deal with natural gas?


Yes, they are natural gas.

What happens?

Well...My plans will be complete.

~And~

:irule:

What happens?

Well...My plans will be complete.

~And~

:irule:

lol, nice.

These guys (Devon, Chesapeake, etc. etc.) aren't dummies. There is a reason why they are so successful. I'm pretty sure they'll see the end coming long before the general public does and diversify. I'm sure many will go into alternative forms of energy generation.

This being said, it's hard to imagine that any other fuel could be as wealth generating as Oil and Gas have been. But then again, there will probably be something pop up in the next few decades that no one has even thought of yet.

It's all cyclical.

As oil dries up, the benefit of drilling and exploration will expand. As such, more and more money will pour in to the exploration side, causing a large boom in economy to match.

As such, people will ride those stocks high, but the fall will be spectacular! Be wary, as the cost of oil goes up, so will the stocks of drilling companies, as it gets more and more profitable to drill risky holes. This is a key to move your money and livelihood in to something that will survive the fall of oil. Solar power, mining, and biofuels would be a smart move then.

My prediction, based on a SWAG, is about 2025 to 2030. Should current reserves be overblown, we may see it earlier. Should they be overstated, it can be later.

I read recently that we (the USA) possess enough ''shale oil or shale sands oil deposits'' that the ammounts would rival the Saudi'd total production to date. If this is so, I think oil will be a huge deal for considerably more than 40 years....
Further, the story on last weeks time mag. cover was who owns the Artic, sice the area has an abundance of all types of natural resources. I hope that when we extract what is needed, we can do so without buming off or screwing up the enviroment and the natural ''critters'' that live there.

There is enough oil underground in the United States to supply this country for centuries. The only problem is that it costs to more to pull it out of the ground in the US than it does overseas. So it makes perfect sense to buy it from other countries.

If oil where to dissappear, I think other technologies would replace it. I wish our government would start a NASA type budget program aimed at finding a new renewable energy source that gives us the same freedoms gasoline allows us to enjoy. Honestly, not everyone is going to ride mass transit even if they are forced to. I will walk or ride a skateboard before I ride mass transit. I have had to do it for three years of my life. I will never do it again.

Honestly, I think we could cut fuel consumption in half just by raising the driving age to 18 or after the successful completion of high school or a GED program. (which ever comes first.) Most schools ban kids from driving to school until their junior or senior year anyway because of a lack of adequate parking. Kids could still get a learners permit at 16 with parent or guardian in the front seat.

I think Oklahoma will adjust. It's central and sun belt location will be an asset. It will certainly be an adjustment but I tend to agree that those in the industries are going to be making plans long before the oil runs out. Moreover, it is not like in the days of the oil patch bust when all the nouveau riche were spending money like the Arab royal family. We are much more diversified, these days.

I'd like to see your "centuries" of oil source. the Alaskan reserves are out largest reserves. If we were to rely solely on that source, it is less than 6 months at our current consumption rate.

The really exciting thing, in my opinion, is new solar technologies. Oklahoma gets plenty of sun every year, so we can cash in on them. There's a new solar shingle for roofs in development right now... within five years you'll see roofing shingles with solar collectors built into them -- they're much cheaper and more efficient than those big clunky panels. Just lay out the shingles just like any other, except you attach a wire from shingle to shingle as you nail them down. Attach the final wire to the top, attach that wire to your house, and viola, tons of free electricity for life. Plus the shingles' solar collectors are encased in epoxy, so they won't break in Oklahoma hailstorms like the old solar panels do. Plus they last longer than normal shingles and don't rip off as easily in the wind.

If I recall correctly, it will add about $7,000 to an average ~2,000 sq.ft. house to install them. In the Oklahoma summer, my electric bill goes up by about $100 a month for 4-5 months, so just that kind of savings alone would pay for the system in just a few years. Factor it into a mortgage and it probably would even out in terms of monthly cash flow. Then there's events like the recent ice storm -- the solar collectors could power your most critical needs like the furnace and your refrigerator.

Plus I like the idea of selling excess electricity to OG+E rather than buying it from them. :biggrin:

The other really cool thing I've seen lately is a solar dish based upon a Stirling engine. Basically they use a huge satellite-dish-looking-thingy made of mirrors to concentrate solar heat on an engine, which uses the heat to rotate, which generates electricity. Apparently it's cheaper and about twice as efficient as solar cells. They're building a huge farm of them out near California, so they don't have to build a nuke plant near earthquake faults (which definitely makes sense). The whole system is sealed and self-powered, and even works well on cloudy days. Nifty.

Not to mention somewhere between 3 and 15 billion barrels at one site in the Gulf of Mexico.

U.S. Oil Reserves Get a Big Boost - washingtonpost.com (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/05/AR2006090500275.html)

we will never run out.
America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant.

In the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel.

It was not until 2007, when EOG Resources of Texas started a frenzy when they drilled a single well in Parshal N.D. that is expected to yield 700,000 barrels of oil that real excitement and money started to flow in North Dakota. Marathon Oil is investing $1.5 billion and drilling 300 new wells in what is expected to be one of the greatest booms in Oil discovery since Oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938.

The US imported about 14 million barrels of Oil per day in 2007 , which means US consumers sent about $340 Billion Dollars over seas building palaces in Dubai and propping up unfriendly regimes around the World, if 200 billion barrels of oil at $90 a barrel are recovered in the high plains the added wealth to the US economy would be $18 Trillion Dollars which would go a long way in stabilizing the US trade deficit and could cut the cost of oil in half in the long run.
-from nextenergy news

Devon is also dealing heavily in gas, as opposed to oil. Most of their major oil plays are out of the US, in Canada, Brazil, Middle East, etc.

Chesapeake is obviously gas-centric.

Still, the underlying question of the thread is a good one, and something I've wondered myself.

Hopefully Devon, SandRidge, et. al. are investing the R&D in future energy sources. The public at large is probably going to move away from carbon sources, regardless if they are oil, gas, coal etc.

OKC should be strategically positioning itself AWAY from carbon energy companies, while at the same time doing what is possible to ensure those carbon energy companies can continue to prosper here.

What if OKC became the headquarters for the NEXT energy boom, in whatever form that takes?

Aubrey says gas is the next boom, but he's not looking very far into the future.

Honestly, I think we could cut fuel consumption in half just by raising the driving age to 18 or after the successful completion of high school or a GED program. (which ever comes first.) Most schools ban kids from driving to school until their junior or senior year anyway because of a lack of adequate parking. Kids could still get a learners permit at 16 with parent or guardian in the front seat.

I realize the above post is very old, but I've heard a lot of people recently say things along this line. Nobody seems to think about the economic impact this would have. By raising the driving age to 18, you essentially prevent the majority of 16 and 17 year olds from getting jobs. When you go to the movie, who sells your ticket and popcorn? When you go to McDonald's, who takes your order? When you go to a restaurant, who seats you and cleans your table? Probably high school kids, the vast majority of which are 16 and 17.

I agree. Driving should not be taken away from 16 and 17 years old. The earlier they start driving, the earlier they start working, the earlier they save up, the best chance they will have to start and complete college earlier. Starting at a younger age gives them the best boost start to starting a career.

I think kids need to be focused on finishing high school and preparing for college before being focused on starting a career.

For those kids out there who can balance school and a job, they could ride a bicycle, walk or have mom and dad take them to work.