SPC considered going with a High Risk right off the bat, but ultimately decided on a Moderate Risk with the potential for a later upgrade. Additional outlooks should come out at around 8:00a, 11:30a, 3:00p, and 8:00p

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...Oklahoma into southern Kansas...
Intense storms are expected across these areas by late afternoon.
Storm coverage is likely to initially be greatest in south-central
Kansas given the greater and earlier upper-level forcing. Isolated
storms will still be possible along the dryline in western Oklahoma
as strong heating in the Texas Panhandle should support dryline
circulations that should at least locally erode inhibition. By the
evening, greater forcing for ascent will arrive in western Oklahoma.
Flow aloft will be nearly perpendicular to the dryline, which will
favor a discrete storm mode. Even as the weak Pacific front
overtakes the dryline, low-level forcing is not expected to be
strong enough to promote substantial upscale growth, especially when
coupled with continued strong shear across the boundary.

Overall, there appears to be prolonged opportunity for discrete
storms to form across western Oklahoma into parts of southern
Kansas. While the environment during the afternoon will certainly
support intense, long-track tornadoes, concern only grows by early
evening. Discrete storms are expected to move eastward into an
intensifying low-level jet core in central and eastern Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas. Surface-based activity will likely persist into
the evening and even parts of the overnight, given continued influx
of moisture and weak capping. The time frame of greatest concern for
intense tornadoes is from 03-06Z across central into northeast
Oklahoma.

This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High
Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with
regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An
increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should
confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase.