June 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[SEMIweather]

Saw a couple forecasts calling for 90 mph wind with baseball sized hailstones. That would not be very chill imo.

Latest NWS discussion explicitly mentions the possibility of baseball to softball sized hail and 80 to 90 mph wind gusts.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx...e=202306151725

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah these are some crazy dynamics. Also, temps and dews are already running hotter than some of the models, which means this event is definitely uptrending

https://twitter.com/invertv_dcape/st...315035140?s=46

[C_M_25]

I feel like the recent models have pulled the most unstable air back to the west a bit. Looking at the high res NAM, it really looks like these storms start to rapidly degrade once the get to the okc area. The HRRR is still showing a good line of storms, and it shows them moving very rapidly. NAM seems to be favoring weakening by the time they are here, and the HRRR is happy maintaining that storm intensity.

[C_M_25]

Also, the dewpoints look really low right now. Wonder if we’ll see rapid intensification of those. Don’t see how we can have such monster storms with dewpoints in the low 60’s.

[C_M_25]

Actually, looking at the NAM on a different website, it looks like it has almost nothing affecting us whatsoever. Weird to see such disagreement here.

[PoliSciGuy]

We've got dews in the 70s in SW OK and surging northward. Wouldn't be surprised if we're in the high 60s/low 70s by the time the line gets here

[SEMIweather]

Tornado Watch coming for Western OK. Guessing they will wait to issue anything for the Metro as we are still 4+ hours out from anything reaching the US-81 corridor.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1076.html

[PoliSciGuy]

Watch is out, includes the metro. 90mph gusts, "DVD sized" hail https://twitter.com/NWStornado/statu...27828432195584

[jedicurt]

Watch is out, includes the metro. 90mph gusts, "DVD sized" hail https://twitter.com/NWStornado/statu...27828432195584

dvd sized. does that mean it will be flat?

[C_M_25]

I guess just err on the side of caution today, but I don’t see why OKC is included in this. Almost every model has backed off on the impacts of this system on the city. I guess we’ll see. Regardless, I’ll have my car in the garage just in case.

[SEMIweather]

Initiation north of Mangum.

[PoliSciGuy]

Initiation north of Mangum.

That thing went from blip to severe warned in like 10 minutes, jeez

[SEMIweather]

That thing went from blip to severe warned in like 10 minutes, jeez

That's what 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE will do lol. Summer instability combined with spring shear means big trouble.

[BDP]

As long as it's not Blu-Ray size, should be okay.

[jn1780]

As long as it's not Blu-Ray size, should be okay.

or Laserdisc sized hail.

[BDP]

or Laserdisc sized hail.

That would be a record.

[C_M_25]

I think okc has 2 things going against us tonight:

1. Low dewpoints (that could change)
2. The outflow boundaries from the southern cluster of storms that will move out ahead of the main MCS will drastically lower severe weather chances for us.
3.

[PoliSciGuy]

Norman dews are up to 68 and surging north. We'll be into the low 70s by the time the line moves through most likely

[C_M_25]

The NAM has completely backed off of any rain for the okc area.

[PoliSciGuy]

The NAM has completely backed off of any rain for the okc area.

I think the NAM missed on this system

[C_M_25]

I think the NAM missed on this system

In retrospect, they all missed on this system. In fact, the early morning HRRR runs were closer to what actually happened today vs the HRRR runs this afternoon. It seems like they were all struggling with the dew points as the day went along for whatever reason.

[Anonymous.]

Watch probabilities show 90% chance of hail greater than 2" diameter with tallest storms. Hobart storm is ready to party ~ 3;33pm.

[C_M_25]

Storm east of Granite has a nice velocity couplet developing.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Do you all have a place that the weather "nerds" chat during storms? Discord etc?

[PoliSciGuy]

Do you all have a place that the weather "nerds" chat during storms? Discord etc?

Ryan Hall's Discord server isn't a bad place to start, though it can get a little unwieldy during big events https://discord.gg/ryanhallyall