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Thread: Oil: 30 years from now?

  1. #1

    Default Oil: 30 years from now?

    With 'green' energy through wind farms, solar, etc and with successful electric cars becoming quite popular it makes me wonder if the demand for oil will become less and less over the next 30 years? And if demand for oil falls substantially will the oil industry from drilling to refinery's be able to adjust?

    Oklahoma's oil industry may look very, very different in 30 years.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    We work so hard to drill for it (engery) but it is literally falling from the sky going (largely) uncaptured and there's zero possibility of it running out during human civilization. If I were an energy mogul, I'd play the long(er) game, or at least be diversifying across all the energy sources. But I'm not, so...

  3. #3

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    Exactly. And the thing is the amount of changes which will take place in the next 30 years will be substantial. But so many time we respond with 'reaction' instead of being 'proactive'. I strongly feel 30 years Oklahoma's oil industry will look completely different....and maybe not in a good way.

    Quote Originally Posted by shawnw View Post
    We work so hard to drill for it (engery) but it is literally falling from the sky going (largely) uncaptured and there's zero possibility of it running out during human civilization. If I were an energy mogul, I'd play the long(er) game, or at least be diversifying across all the energy sources. But I'm not, so...

  4. Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    This same discussion was going on in the 60s. Modern technology was going to obsolete gasoline by now. Hasn’t happened yet and probably isn’t going to.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    Prices of oil will probably go way, way up before alternative technologies become cheaper.

    There's no guarantee, but I don't think it's likely that a replacement comes along with no warning. Right now solar and other technologies are so much more expensive than oil that it's not even funny.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    I see a decrease in oil usage in the USA in 50 years, but a large increase in natural gas. Natural gas will be the fuel for power plants to produce on-demand electricity to provide energy to all the electrical cars.

    Oklahoma has some great gas plays. Lookin' good.

  7. #7

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Robertson View Post
    This same discussion was going on in the 60s. Modern technology was going to obsolete gasoline by now. Hasn’t happened yet and probably isn’t going to.

    True but look at the changes in other areas. Small black and white TVs to huge thin screen smart TVs. Phone booths on every block to a instant pocket phone. Finger prints to DNA. So much has changed but OIL/GAS remains pretty much the same. I wonder why? It's the big money that drives the industry and of course they want to keep drilling and keep selling as always.

  8. #8

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    Have to consider the scope of the global oil industry - about 100,000,000 bbls of oil are currently needed PER day. Analysts have focused on predicting the end of demand growth. Some say global oil demand will peak in as little as 7 years, while others say it will be about 20 years from now. That's just demand growth. Even at 0 bbls/year demand growth, we still would need methods to replace the massive amount of daily demand at whatever bbl amount that ends up being. Probably in the 115,000,000 bbls/day range.

    Alternative forms of energy need to grow and grow fast. While I am a firm believer in the need to grow green energy, I unfortunately don't think that humans will transition away from carbon based fuels fast enough. We're long past the point of no return IMHO.

    In terms of how OK's energy industry will be in 30 years. I think that it will still exist in some form, but of course be smaller than it is today. I think half the size is a reasonable starting point.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    Quote Originally Posted by OKCRT View Post
    True but look at the changes in other areas. Small black and white TVs to huge thin screen smart TVs. Phone booths on every block to a instant pocket phone. Finger prints to DNA. So much has changed but OIL/GAS remains pretty much the same. I wonder why? It's the big money that drives the industry and of course they want to keep drilling and keep selling as always.


    If you think they rigged the system and that's why we're still using oil, then we don't have to worry about oil companies losing power, because obviously they did a really good job.

  10. #10

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    Quote Originally Posted by pw405 View Post
    Have to consider the scope of the global oil industry - about 100,000,000 bbls of oil are currently needed PER day. Analysts have focused on predicting the end of demand growth. Some say global oil demand will peak in as little as 7 years, while others say it will be about 20 years from now. That's just demand growth. Even at 0 bbls/year demand growth, we still would need methods to replace the massive amount of daily demand at whatever bbl amount that ends up being. Probably in the 115,000,000 bbls/day range.

    Alternative forms of energy need to grow and grow fast. While I am a firm believer in the need to grow green energy, I unfortunately don't think that humans will transition away from carbon based fuels fast enough. We're long past the point of no return IMHO.

    In terms of how OK's energy industry will be in 30 years. I think that it will still exist in some form, but of course be smaller than it is today. I think half the size is a reasonable starting point.
    Our oil industry will be larger than it is now in 30 years. It will probably be a smaller percentage of the economy, but it will still probably be larger overall.

    You'll know that environmentalists are actually serious about reducing our carbon footprint when they start talking about nuclear power.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    I would love to talk nuclear, but not the way we do it in the US, where we don't recycle the spent fuel (my understanding is that France doesn't have the waste issues we do because they are recycling the spent fuel). Also, I'd prefer thorium reactors going forward.

  12. #12

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    https://www.livemint.com/Industry/Fi...ford-stud.html

    http://nhne-pulse.org/rethinking-tra...ion-2020-2030/

    I ordered his book, I am interested to see the thought process and additional evidence for some of his assertions. What does Oklahoma's economy look like in 5-10 years if what Seba suggests is true?

  13. #13

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    Thirty years is too soon to see a significant reduction in domestic oil demand. This source https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/...m-consumption/ shows a US oil consumption chart going back to 1949, and it approximates others I found. Consumption has steadily increased except during price spikes in the mid-70s, and economic downturns in the early 80s and late 00s. Anecdotally, when I was in business school 40 years ago in CA, a Standard Oil executive predicted that the company would be renamed "Standard Energy" as it shifted from oil to alternative energy. Instead, it was renamed "Chevron" after a mega-oil merger.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Robertson View Post
    This same discussion was going on in the 60s. Modern technology was going to obsolete gasoline by now. Hasn’t happened yet and probably isn’t going to.
    Actually the same type of discussion was occurring roughly 100 years ago.


    At around $50 Oklahoma has at least 20 years’ worth of drilling inventory left.
    There are many other locations around the world that will come on line with higher prices.
    The availability of hydrocarbons goes up with price, increased infrastructure and lower governmental restrictions.

    I favor eliminating all energy subsidies and mandates except for those that currently help fuels burn cleaner.

  15. #15

    Default Re: Oil: 30 years from now?

    As soon as renewable becomes cheaper than fossil, we won’t even be having this conversation. And I think it’s our duty to bring those prices in line. Call it sin tax, call it carbon credits...our global energy demand needs a shot in the arm.

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