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Thread: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

  1. #51

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Drake View Post
    I am not looking forward to this weather change that is supposedly coming. Watching the TV meteorologists here is so damn aggravating.
    Why is it agrivating to watch them?

  2. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    Looks warm and humid but dry for the game. There could at least be some clouds around with a chance of storms late Saturday into Sunday.

    Decent rain chances across OK for the weekend.
    Yeah I'm looking at some of that rain being heavy. Don't like driving I35 in that heavy stuff

  3. #53

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    The cold front that just barely touched OKC last evening has retreated back to the NW. This front will push back and forth from SW KS to C OK multiple times over the next few days. We will see multiple disturbances ride along this boundary giving most of OK chances of rain and storms (especially across W OK). The system is very large and will impact the majority of the country, including potential GOM development of a tropical storm or hurricane impacting the SE USA. The information below will pertain to Oklahoma.


    This evening, we will likely see storms develop in the TX PH and NW OK. This will create outflow boundaries that could spark additional development to the south and east. If this boundary is stout enough, it could spark a thin line of rain/storms even as far SE as OKC region. But the heavier rainfall will remain in W and NW OK. As the night goes on, the front will push further south and east and stall out somewhere over C OK.

    •Saturday morning the boundary will be either stationary over C OK or drifting slightly NW across the area. We will see a large swath of rain and storm develop across NW TX and ride up along this boundary. Moderate and heavy rainfall is likely anywhere along I-44 and to the NW.

    •We will likely have a break in the action sometime Saturday afternoon/evening, before another round comes through early Sunday morning. Models are having a difficult time determining the timing of the rounds as the disturbances and their spacing is difficult to forecast until they are developed on radar.

    •Sunday appears we'll have a short break in the action after morning rain. The front could pass back to the NW at this time, giving parts of the state time to bask in warm humid air and potential sunshine. This scenario could setup the evening for severe weather across the region as another disturbance will push through. Flooding potential is the main threat with any storms that do fire up, especially across W and C OK.

    •Monday could be a bit of a break during the daytime, before a likely strong-to-severe line of storms pushes through late and into early hours of Tuesday morning. This would be the final round of storms from this large system. Severe threat will be wind and hail, with flash flooding due to recent rainfall in the area.

    The timing of everything above is a best guess based on model data I have looked at. Just pay attention to radar for the next several days in regards to outdoor planning and travel. I will follow up this post with some model's rainfall totals as we get new data this evening.

    After this system is out of the way, we will see highs in the upper 60s and lows in the lower 50s and upper 40s. Our next action could be following close behind with a tropical remnant setup that would impact the state next weekend if all holds true.

  4. #54

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018











  5. #55

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Ummmm just curious what has happened to the heavy rains we have been hearing about all week. Did the system weaken or go a different route or slow down?

  6. #56
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Sirsteve View Post
    Ummmm just curious what has happened to the heavy rains we have been hearing about all week. Did the system weaken or go a different route or slow down?
    Much of western and central Oklahoma, including the metro area under a flood watch, starting at 1 am Sunday morning. I don't think much has changed overall.

    FLOOD WATCH
    Areas Affected:
    Alfalfa - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Cleveland - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Harper - Jackson - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Major - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Roger Mills - Tillman - Washi ta - Woods - Woodward
    Effective: Sat, 10/6 2:48pm Updated: Sat, 10/6 3:55pm Urgency: Future
    Expires: Tue, 10/9 1:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

    Details:

    ...Heavy Rain Expected Through Tuesday...
    .Periods of heavy rain which will likely cause flooding in some
    areas is expected through Tuesday.
    ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
    AFTERNOON...
    The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
    * Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
    rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of
    Oklahoma and northern Texas, including the following areas, in
    Oklahoma, Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian,
    Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Garfield,
    Grady, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Jackson, Kay, Kingfisher,
    Kiowa, Lincoln, Logan, Major, McClain, Noble, Oklahoma, Payne,
    Roger Mills, Tillman, Wa****a, Woods, and Woodward. In
    northern Texas, Archer, Baylor, Foard, Hardeman, Knox,
    Wichita, and Wilbarger.

    * From 1 AM CDT Sunday through Tuesday afternoon
    * Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be likely across the area.
    However, some areas of 5 to 7+ inches of rain will be possible,
    especially in portions of western Oklahoma and western north
    Texas.
    Precautionary/preparedness actions...
    A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
    current forecasts.
    You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
    Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
    prepared to take action should flooding develop.

    Counties covered in green:

  7. #57
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    So far, as of early Sunday morning, most of the heaviest rain is in south central Oklahoma:


  8. #58

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    We should see storms develop in the next few hours. General corridor will be just west of I-35. The large swath comes later into the morning hours for Tuesday.

  9. #59
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    It's nice to see the SW part of the state getting some much needed rain. Hurricane Michael, if it heads the right way, should give us a bit of rain.
    Some days, you get the Bear, other days, the Bear gets you.

  10. #60

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Mel View Post
    It's nice to see the SW part of the state getting some much needed rain. Hurricane Michael, if it heads the right way, should give us a bit of rain.
    You mean Sergio? That one could impact Oklahoma's weather this weekend into early next week depending on the final track.




  11. #61
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    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    A radar look at how the rain is training from west OKC to near the Kansas border as of Monday evening. As much as 2 to 3 inches per hour says Mike Morgan

  12. #62

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    So this has been an interesting morning...

  13. #63

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    No kidding. I heard our NOAA radio go off and thought it was screwed up or something.

  14. #64

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Main action all moving into E OK for the remainder of today. We will see random spotty showers here in C OK through lunch, until clearing behind this.

    Cold, dry air moves in between 9-11pm tonight in C OK. This will setup for our first "cold" morning of the fall season. OKC should get down to around 45-48F by sunrise. A few spots in the panhandle might touch 32F.

    60s for highs and 40s for lows for the remainder of the week. Impacts from remnants of tropical system Sergio looks likely at this time. A window of about 15-24 hours of flooding rainfall is currently forecast for a large part of OK over the weekend.

  15. #65

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Sounds like there was some noteworthy damage out in Midwest City, with roofs torn off and this the scene at JC Pennys:



    https://twitter.com/lauren_daniels4/...61234956685312

  16. #66

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    that picture in front of Jc Penny has to be altered...

    No way there was that many cars in front of a JC Penny at 9am on a tuesday. NO way

  17. #67

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Click image for larger version. 

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  18. #68

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    We were eating breakfast at the iHop on Air Depot when it hit. Just super strong winds and torrents of rain.

  19. #69

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Hurricane Sergio still expected to impact OK weather this weekend


  20. #70

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Cold front just came through around 10pm for OKC. We will see cooler air filter in from the NW all night.

    Panhandle of FL will be facing a direct landfall of a very compact hurricane by mid-day tomorrow.

    Future hurricane remnants from Sergio are still forecasted to track directly over OK this weekend.

  21. #71

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Sergio's track is going to create a sharp drop off of heavy rain accumulation to almost nothing somewhere along the NW edge, which of course is setting up somewhere across C OK.

    This is mostly a Saturday daytime event. With potential for redevelopment with the main low late Sunday night. However, all model trends are taking Sergio mainly over SE OK, so OKC may just get clouds and some passing showers.

    Pretty much 20 miles of N/S deviation in track will determine a trace versus 1-2" of rain. Just plan everything based on radar trends before you head out. 18Z GFS not loaded in yet, but I am sure it won't be much different than the current consensus:















    OKC will get close to a freeze both Monday and Tuesday morning, best chance being Tuesday morning, but likely just an elevated frost.

  22. #72

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    GFS is in:


  23. #73

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Good. It looks like the rain will miss OKC altogether. Tired of the loaded weather. We need some good sunshine loaded fall weather around here.

  24. #74

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    It has been a very cloudy fall thus far in OKC. An average September here has about 71% sunshine, this September was only 45%. And it's not exactly appearing that October is about to break that trend, with Tuesday and Wednesday looking like the only mostly sunny days in the next week.

  25. #75

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - September & October 2018

    Itís a weird feeling to have a day in the 30ís and 40ís and still be needing to mow my yard. If only itíd dry out a tad.

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