General Weather Discussion - May 2018

[Anonymous.]

It is most definitely a true summer pattern. But severe storms can happen anytime, patterns come and go. We could even see some severe weather in the next 24 hours in the state. But not an organized event as mentioned several times in the last week.

[Bunty]

Does this mean that a summer like pattern is settling in? A buddy told me that in June you don't have to worry about storms anymore and even though this is Oklahoma, if this weather settling in means a lot less/no severe then I will take sunny boring days and weather patterns over the worry of any severe weather.

Your friend told you wrong. The likelihood for tornadoes in Oklahoma remains strong through mid June and then a summer time pattern of daily heat with an occasional thunderstorm starts setting in. If it's a dry summer, there will be few thunderstorms.

[Bunty]

My friend and I got to talking about the weather over happy hour. The storm approaching Stillwater on Thursday evening did the interesting phenomenon called the "Stillwater Split". That's where the storm storm spits off and goes to the north and south of Stillwater. It may result from the center part of the storm diminishing as happened on Thursday. The result is little more than a light rain. While doubtful there is any scientific basis to explain it, it has worked well in keeping tornadoes out of Stillwater since 1990. It has also worked well to keep huge hail storms out as well, except for 2009. Chalk it down to great luck.

An example of the Stillwater Spit in action:

[Anonymous.]

Nice 1"+ rainfall for a chunk of NC and C OK this morning.

We still could see redevelopment of some storm tonight over parts of the state. Best chances look like NW and C OK, similar to the storms this morning, but could be severe with a wind threat. SPC has Slight risk outlined for essentially the western half of OK.

Tropical system will likely smash into New Orleans and from there it could go as far west as central Arkansas before turning off to the northeast. Obviously the further west, the greater chance of feeling some effects will be early next week.

[ChrisHayes]

Definite summertime pattern setting in. Unless we have an MCS (nighttime thunderstorm complex) season, we could be in for a hell of a drought this summer. Especially if the heat sets in early and lasts for a long time. Drought begets drought, and drought begets hotter temperatures because the air is so dry.

[pw405]

Definite summertime pattern setting in. Unless we have an MCS (nighttime thunderstorm complex) season, we could be in for a hell of a drought this summer. Especially if the heat sets in early and lasts for a long time. Drought begets drought, and drought begets hotter temperatures because the air is so dry.

Let's hope we don't repeat the drought from a few years ago! Even though we haven't had a ton of rain this year, the spacing of the storms so far have been great in that I have only needed to water the lawn 2-3 times.

[Anonymous.]

Very interesting setup today with storm chances. We will have the tail-end action of an upper level low system sweeping into the state from the northwest, but it will also be influenced by the tropical system to our east.

SPC has outlined a Slight risk for much of the state, and Enhanced region in all of NW OK. Storms will develop in the panhandle this afternoon and begin building in intensity as they slide east. More storms will try and develop on the southern edge of the line/cluster as an MCS begins taking shape. Some of the model data suggests embedded supercell structures could exist within the cluster, focusing on the southern edge. Tornado chance exists (especially early out in NW OK) but the chance is still pretty low.

If a cell or two is able to become rooted on the southern edge of any storm cluster, there is an increased chance of larger hail and tornado threat. Right now models suggest these storm clusters moving toward C OK sometime between 10pm-12am. Heavy rainfall looks to be the main threat with potential for flash flooding from any storms that train over the same area, we could see continuous development of storms over a very localized area near C OK.

I will update as we get a clearer picture later today.

[Anonymous.]

Tornado watch is up now for NW OK.

Tornado Watch Number 131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South Central Kansas
Northwest Oklahoma
Northeast Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail expected with scattered very large hail
events to 3 inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms are expected to form over
south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma this afternoon,
spreading eastward across the watch area. Very large hail and a few
tornadoes are possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Gage OK to 45 miles
northeast of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

[Anonymous.]

Dangerous storms are now exploding across SW KS and into NE parts of the TX panhandle. All storms are going up as rotating supercells. The storm riding along the OK/KS border just north of Buffalo will likely be tornado warned soon.

[Bunty]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Cleveland - Creek - Custer - Dewey - Garfield - Grady - Grant - Greer - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Major - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Osage - Pawnee - Payne - Pottawatomie - Wa****a - Woods - Woodward
Effective: Tue, 5/29 9:30pm Updated: Tue, 5/29 9:36pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Wed, 5/30 4:00am Severity: Severe Certainty: Likely

Details:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
CREEK CUSTER DEWEY
GARFIELD GRADY GRANT
GREER KAY KINGFISHER
KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN
MAJOR MCCLAIN NOBLE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE WASHI TA
WOODS WOODWARD

Area covered:

[Anonymous.]

Some models take storm northeast and south of OKC area, effectively missing the metro. But some runs develops storms in the gap over OKC just as they approach the area.

Flash flooding will be the main threat from here on out, maybe some small hail.

[Anonymous.]

Nice split overnight with the storm complexes.

[Bobby821]

Nice split overnight with the storm complexes.

Hopefully todays storm complexes fill in the gap so we can get some more rain before the blow torch gets really turned up on us.

[Anonymous.]

Enhanced risk for severe weather this evening for about the northern 1/3 of OK. Pretty much from the north OKC metro to the OK/KS border. Then Slight risk for the remaining northern 1/2.

Storms will develop out in the panhandles and fly eastward as we head into the overnight hours. Exact placement and track is hard to pinpoint as this event will be relatively local to a specific path, much like last night's storms. Right now the best chance is northern OK.

This event will be nearly exclusive to a damaging wind and flashflood threat, but like yesterday there is a chance an embedded supercell (especially on southern edge of the cluster) could have rotation with a low tornado threat. Because of this, the tornado threat would be closest to I-40, despite the higher parameter of severe risk being to the north.

[Sharona21]

I do wish for rain because of the heat, but then comes the humidity.
Hopefully it bypasses the OKC area again due to the big hail these storms
are producing. The people affected by it last night have my sympathy.

Thank you, Anonymous. Your reports are greatly appreciated.

[OKCbyTRANSFER]

Started out quiet but now about 2:40AM and have the storm coming over downtown. Rain, thunder with lightening, some wind. For now