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Thread: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

  1. #26

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Storm trackers I follow are targeting west central OK.

  2. #27

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    The show has started in KS. TOR watch issued for all of central KS with High parameters in every category except strong tornadoes, which is listed as Moderate (still significant). I think the large watch that is coming for the western half of OK will be very similar.





    I have circled two areas of focus above:
    •The area likely for development along the dryline first is here in the red. These will be supercell storms intially, but could merge into smaller clusters with embedded supercells. Still a a good tornado threat with these, but non-discreet cells will have a tougher time going full tornado.
    •The blue area I have circled is an area of later development (think towards 4-5pm window) where storms will develop just ahead and right along the dryline as it bows eastward, especially along the southern fringe. These storms have a better wind shear environment for becoming more discreet in nature, thus posing a greater large hail and tornado threat.

  3. #28

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Can we get an approximate timeline on round 1 for the OKC metro?

  4. #29

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Just as I posted my previous post, the tornado watch was issued for OK. It includes western sides of OKC metro all the way back to the border. High parameters in every category except winds (so yes High parameter on strong tornadoes). Think of this watch as just about as strong of a regular watch you can have without it being PDS.


  5. #30

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    The show has started in KS. TOR watch issued for all of central KS with High parameters in every category except strong tornadoes, which is listed as Moderate (still significant). I think the large watch that is coming for the western half of OK will be very similar.





    I have circled two areas of focus above:
    •The area likely for development along the dryline first is here in the red. These will be supercell storms intially, but could merge into smaller clusters with embedded supercells. Still a a good tornado threat with these, but non-discreet cells will have a tougher time going full tornado.
    •The blue area I have circled is an area of later development (think towards 4-5pm window) where storms will develop just ahead and right along the dryline as it bows eastward, especially along the southern fringe. These storms have a better wind shear environment for becoming more discreet in nature, thus posing a greater large hail and tornado threat.
    Is it me or can anyone else not see the artwork of Anonymous?

  6. #31

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    I can't from my work PC that is behind a firewall I can from my phone though.

  7. #32

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Looks like they are hosted on Imgur, so it probably just depends on firewall settings if you are on a work network.

  8. #33

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by turnpup View Post
    Can we get an approximate timeline on round 1 for the OKC metro?
    I would say 8-9pm timeframe is a good bet, but it will vary slightly on individual storm speed and/or if a line develops and it accelerates ahead.

  9. #34

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Ah yes, sorry I have the images hosted on imgur - I did not realize some places block that. If someone has another alternative that is just as easy, feel free to post about it.

  10. #35

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    I would say 8-9pm timeframe is a good bet, but it will vary slightly on individual storm speed and/or if a line develops and it accelerates ahead.
    Thank you! I wanted to make sure it wouldn't be during our family's afternoon drive time.

    You're such a valuable resource to the OKCTalk community. We appreciate you!

  11. #36

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    We are in the chat room now talking about the storms. http://www.wxstuff.com/index.php?r=d...rd%2Fdashboard

  12. #37

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    You're welcome, turnpup. I enjoy giving others information that is helpful when so many here have anxiety about this time of year.


    Reydon/Sweetwater area in extreme W OK will likely be first major storms for W OK.

    Hollis/Gould area down in extreme SW OK will be likely first big action spot this afternoon for SW OK.

  13. #38

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    You're welcome, turnpup. I enjoy giving others information that is helpful when so many here have anxiety about this time of year.
    Just wanted to say before we head into the heart of the storm season..you've been a big part of my yearly storm season routine since 2013 or so. Thanks for all that you do, appreciate it!

  14. #39

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Latest HRRR is ugly for a large part of state. Broken groups of supercells approaching C OK around 8pm. Massive hail and tornado threat accompanying.

  15. #40

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Latest HRRR is ugly for a large part of state. Broken groups of supercells approaching C OK around 8pm. Massive hail and tornado threat accompanying.
    What's keeping the SPC from pushing the moderate risk further south and east? Storm coverage in central oklahoma after 7?

  16. #41

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    New MD out on the situation:



    Mesoscale Discussion 0317
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles and northwest TX into
    western OK

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

    Valid 022024Z - 022300Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

    SUMMARY...Very large hail and an increasing threat for storms to
    become tornadic exists across the eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
    into northwest Texas and western Oklahoma into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Mid-afternoon mosaic radar imagery indicated ongoing
    discrete storm development near and east of a dryline which extended
    south through far eastern TX Panhandle from an area of low pressure
    in far northwest OK. These storms will continue to track to the
    east-northeast into western OK this afternoon, with additional storm
    development likely in northwest TX in the southwest part of WW 62.
    The CAPE/shear parameter space east of the dryline has become very
    conducive for storms to mature into supercells with the potential
    for tornadoes and very large hail. Special NSSL sounding at Elk
    City, OK at 1827Z indicated very strong instability (surface-based
    CAPE of 4000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km). In
    addition to strong effective bulk shear expected to remain oriented
    across the initiating boundary for discrete storms, the NSSL
    sounding showed effective inflow shear of 28 kt, with low-level
    hodograph curvature to support rotating updrafts.

    ..Peters.. 05/02/2018

  17. #42

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    It's just paranoid hype to me until an actual tornado warning is issued for my county and then they might as well seriously hype all they can.

  18. #43

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    What's keeping the SPC from pushing the moderate risk further south and east? Storm coverage in central oklahoma after 7?
    Nothing. They added wording to the last update saying that they were only expanding the risks and not upgrading probabilities. But again, that was for the update late this morning. Things are playing out where long-tracked discreet supercells are becoming favorable over a large area.

  19. #44

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunty View Post
    It's just silly paranoid hype to me until an actual tornado warning is issued for my county and then they might as well seriously hype all they can.
    I am not sure who/what you are referencing here, but in case you are talking about the updates here - I am only posting the information I get from the data and current radar trends. There is no money to be made here.

    You are certainly welcome to wait for your county to be in a warning before taking any actions, that is up to you. But some people want the information for planning and have family/friends in other locations. It isn't always about your own backyard.

  20. #45

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Latest SPC Outlook further expands Enhanced risk south and east, covering more of C and S OK. No upgrades to risks categories.

  21. #46

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    The huge storm north of Elk City, OK is starting to get that look. If it can absorb the cell coming up south of it with no interruption, we could be looking at the first major cell turning right.

    Next cell south of that is smaller in size for now, but is moving into favorable airspace near Granite, OK.

  22. #47

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    The cells have done a good job consolidating/ separating themselves in the last 30 minutes.

  23. #48

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    The cells have done a good job consolidating/ separating themselves in the last 30 minutes.
    Yep the shear environment right now is really good for discreet cells to become dominant. (worst case scenario)

    Also want to mention there are storms coming up from NW TX that are maturing as they prepare to enter SW OK near the Altus area.

  24. #49

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    I am not sure who/what you are referencing here, but in case you are talking about the updates here - I am only posting the information I get from the data and current radar trends. There is no money to be made here.

    You are certainly welcome to wait for your county to be in a warning before taking any actions, that is up to you. But some people want the information for planning and have family/friends in other locations. It isn't always about your own backyard.
    I don't know of a single relative or friend in western Oklahoma. I'm referring to the hype from the TV weathermen. If the hype passes with no severe storm in their area, then they're not helping their credibility and may do more harm than good. Reports and commentary here tend to be more interesting and informative than sensational. Thanks.

  25. #50

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - May 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    I am not sure who/what you are referencing here, but in case you are talking about the updates here - I am only posting the information I get from the data and current radar trends. There is no money to be made here.

    You are certainly welcome to wait for your county to be in a warning before taking any actions, that is up to you. But some people want the information for planning and have family/friends in other locations. It isn't always about your own backyard.
    I think/hope Bunty was referring to the fact that the local stations have moved into full-on 24/7 this is an active emergency coverage. There is absolutely a strong possibility of some serious stuff later on, and people do indeed need to be informed. If they choose not to act, that is on them. The other side of the coin here is when the local stations go into full on 24/7 active emergency coverage and nothing happens, then (as demonstrated) people get exhausted of it and stop listening. As has been discussed in the past, a careful balance needs to be found, but that's not what the news around here is looking for.

    The idea that there should be no coverage until a tornado is actually on the ground is the exact opposite of what (real) meteorologists have been working towards for years, and I doubt anyone REALLY believes there shouldn't be advance knowledge, it's just a reaction due to the boy who cried wolf mentality of our local teevee folks.

    As for me, I find your information useful, and it is one of several sources of information I've been keeping an eye on today. Based on that, my personal opinion is Mike and David need to take some Xanax, but only a small dose. Calm down, dial it back from 11, but still stay alert.

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