Page 1 of 6 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 141
  1. #1

    Default President Trump on the Economy

    I know it's quite early still, and judging how he has done is impossible at this point. But let's make this a place to discuss goings on in congress and the admin in regards to budgets, taxes, etc.

    As I'm sure you all have at least heard that Trump wants to cut taxes more than anyone (shocking I know, bigger, better, whatever). Undoubtedly it won't happen. But maybe it's a decent strategy. If you over promise to the extreme to which he does, even meeting him half way is very much a victory for him (of course it will be counted as a failure by many for sure).

    From the great Thomas Sowell, a breakdown in the fallacy of tax cuts for the rich:
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...ch_133760.html

    And Art Laffer (Laffer curve fame) discussing why the "fact" that tax cuts have to be paid for is also just as loony:
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ar...rticle/2621763

    and Steven Rattner completely missing the beginning of one of the greatest expansions of our economy in history (and he had the benefit of hindsight) while in the process of calling Reagan's tax cuts the reason the economy "worsened", and falling for just the fallacies that Sowell above points out.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/01/o...ml?ref=opinion

  2. Default Re: President Trump on the Economy


  3. #3

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    The one thing I would not do is trust Trump's assessment of the economy. Most presidents overstate both the status of the economy and their credit for any good indicators that may be available. And then there's Trump. He just flat out states stuff that can be easily be debunked, even when he doesn't have to. I mean, we had a decent quarter, with a few things to keep an eye on, and he goes out there and embellishes every bit of it with completely untrue statements.

  4. #4

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by TheTravellers View Post
    Ive read several things from this author. She got a nice undergrad degree and worked for Goldman for a while so she has some experience. However, her writings also show she has clearly soured on capitalism - of which she so eagerly participates and takes advantage. I'm not sure if she is just playing a part, but she throws in just enough truth to sound plausible, in this case an ultra-right wing rant against central bankers and the Fed.
    While there is plenty to gripe about with how our economy has gone the last decade, it's mainly the legislative branch and President's who caused the near economic calamity. Greatly because of actions, or lack of actions by the Treasury department, the mortgage bust turned into a worldwide economic crisis unlike any other this country has seen. It was necessary to enlist the central banks of the world to head-off a true calamity which we would, in all liklihood, still be suffering through - instead of in one of the most powerful periods of economic growth not seen in decades. The one remnant of the bust, wage levels, still has to recover. Today, it was acknowledged that the economic measurement of unemployment when measuring all working age adults, not just those actively working or looking to work, is nearing full-employment. Unless large numbers of new workers are brought in, wages will have to start rising. No matter the reason, cause or stimulous, the economy is smoking - allowing Trump to take on the Chinese. Despite all those who pontificate Trump causing a catastrophe with the tariffs, his methods are seeming to be successful with the Canadians, Mexicans and Europeans.

  5. #5

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by BDP View Post
    The one thing I would not do is trust Trump's assessment of the economy. Most presidents overstate both the status of the economy and their credit for any good indicators that may be available. And then there's Trump. He just flat out states stuff that can be easily be debunked, even when he doesn't have to. I mean, we had a decent quarter, with a few things to keep an eye on, and he goes out there and embellishes every bit of it with completely untrue statements.
    This isn't just Trump gloating. It's independant economic data. This is one time it's not just Trump embellishing.

  6. #6

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    The funny thing is that the president always owns the economy. I personally dont think they deserve it either way, but it's the reality. As was said, it's the economy stupid.

    Right now every economic metic.aand indicator is positive. I think that's why the TDS is elevated. Its hard to win elections on raising taxes and reversing positive economic growth.

  7. #7

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    All though it may make it slightly easier to sell the new Socialist platform that seems to be catching on. You know, more stuff to confiscate and all.

  8. #8

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by mugofbeer View Post
    This isn't just Trump gloating. It's independant economic data. This is one time it's not just Trump embellishing.
    No. I’m talking about the way he frames it. The data looks good and then he presents it with superlatives that aren’t true. The guy can’t not lie. But this has always been true. It’s not a huge deal, but it’s just annoying that he can even screw up good news.

  9. #9

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jerrywall View Post
    The funny thing is that the president always owns the economy. I personally dont think they deserve it either way, but it's the reality. As was said, it's the economy stupid..
    I agree. But itís all a voodoo mind tricks anyway. Anecdotally, I remember a guy telling me that he was glad trump won becuae his 401k had done so poorly during Obamaís years. I didnít say anything, but I was thinking that whomever manages his 401k was an idiot. It was impossible to not make a lot of money in those years if you had any kind of diversification.

    Of course, Obama didnít wave a pen and make it happen, and, maybe more importantly the stock market doesnít equal the economy, especially for most Americans, but it was just so funny to hear that someone was actually believing political clap trap over the numbers on his statements.

    In any event, things do look good and if wage growth and labor force can keep up, it could get even better. The trade war and immigration hysteria does worry me, but for those are things, a wave of a pen could change it if needed. Construction labor could be becoming a problem, in that if it keeps going down, costs of housing could go up and the net gains of increased GDP and any potential wage growth get wiped out.

  10. #10

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jerrywall View Post
    The funny thing is that the president always owns the economy. I personally dont think they deserve it either way, but it's the reality. As was said, it's the economy stupid..
    I agree. But it’s all political voodoo mind tricks anyway. Anecdotally, I remember a guy telling me that he was glad trump won becuae his 401k had done so poorly during Obama’s years. I didn’t say anything, but I was thinking that whomever manages his 401k was an idiot. It was impossible to not make a lot of money in those years if you had any kind of diversification.

    Of course, Obama didn’t wave a pen and make it happen, and, maybe more importantly the stock market doesn’t equal the economy, especially for most Americans, but it was just so funny to hear that someone was actually believing political clap trap over the numbers on his statements.

    In any event, things do look good and if wage growth and labor force can keep up, it could get even better. The trade war and immigration hysteria does worry me, but for those things, a wave of a pen could change it if needed. Construction labor could be becoming a problem, in that if it keeps going down, costs of housing could go up and the net gains of increased GDP and any potential wage growth get wiped out.

  11. #11

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by mugofbeer View Post
    This isn't just Trump gloating. It's independant economic data. This is one time it's not just Trump embellishing.
    Real wages have fallen over the last year with the tax cuts.

    http://thehill.com/policy/finance/40...-economic-boom

  12. #12

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    That is true, but primarily due to housing prices. Most other things have yet to rise or are things we only occasionally buy, like appliances and cars. Not everyone is being hurt - yet.

    The new business dynamic has kept wages down - virtually the only thing that is not booming in the economy. Companies, at this point, would rather train new employees and let the older, more experienced/expensive go. They simply refuse to raise wages until it actually starts to harm them. However, even as a measurement of people capable of working , but are not, we are nearing full employment so either wages must rise, we must import labor who will work here for lower wages, or businesses must hire outside the country.

    Inflation is almost inevitable and, in reasonable levels, is a good thing. Inflation often is an indication of a strong economy. Wages rise, more demand, and you get inflation. Our GDP, despite the nationwde wage rate, is extremely strong. Most everyone who is a qualified hire has, or could get a job. Minority and female employment has never been higher.

    This, along with tariffs and a very strong dollar, will result in future inflation. Trump is taking a real risk with the tariffs but is so far, seeing some success. In other places, it will take longer to see results. Tariff failure could kill his strong economy.

    This is a stay-tuned situation.

  13. #13

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    My personal opinion is that the economy is doing fine. It's not 1999 but it isn't 2009 either. I would say this economy is more or less similar to 2006, but with a stronger housing market and less risk of a financial crisis. However, I think more or less this is continuing momentum that began under Obama. I think Trump's policies are going to cause the next recession and it will arrive a few years sooner and be much more severe than it otherwise would have been. Tariffs, national debt, and rising interest rates will most likely be the cause of the next recession and it will probably begin before the 2020 election.

  14. #14

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by mugofbeer View Post
    That is true, but primarily due to housing prices. Most other things have yet to rise or are things we only occasionally buy, like appliances and cars. Not everyone is being hurt - yet.

    The new business dynamic has kept wages down - virtually the only thing that is not booming in the economy. Companies, at this point, would rather train new employees and let the older, more experienced/expensive go. They simply refuse to raise wages until it actually starts to harm them. However, even as a measurement of people capable of working , but are not, we are nearing full employment so either wages must rise, we must import labor who will work here for lower wages, or businesses must hire outside the country.

    Inflation is almost inevitable and, in reasonable levels, is a good thing. Inflation often is an indication of a strong economy. Wages rise, more demand, and you get inflation. Our GDP, despite the nationwde wage rate, is extremely strong. Most everyone who is a qualified hire has, or could get a job. Minority and female employment has never been higher.

    This, along with tariffs and a very strong dollar, will result in future inflation. Trump is taking a real risk with the tariffs but is so far, seeing some success. In other places, it will take longer to see results. Tariff failure could kill his strong economy.

    This is a stay-tuned situation.
    Where exactly is he seeing success with tariffs?

    And it's not true at all that inflation is being led by housing. It's energy prices, followed by food, transpiration and housing.
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

    Last, housing is actually looking at a bubble. Which is a prime recession trigger.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/418...ivated-sellers

    And the budget deficit is already soaring, removing a prime recession fighting tool, if one happens.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-bud...han-last-year/

  15. #15

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Elizabeth Warren has a plan to save capitalism

    Gonna give a tip to Democrats. Before submitting proposals, consider "Would I want Trump to have this power?". If the answer is No, back to the drawing board.

  16. #16

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    If wage growth is part of the "economy", that facet is still poor.

  17. Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    Elizabeth Warren has a plan to save capitalism

    Gonna give a tip to Democrats. Before submitting proposals, consider "Would I want Trump to have this power?". If the answer is No, back to the drawing board.
    Great plan, and from what I see in the article, POTUS doesn't have much say or power about it all, unless I'm mistaken.

  18. #18

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Swake View Post
    Where exactly is he seeing success with tariffs?

    And it's not true at all that inflation is being led by housing. It's energy prices, followed by food, transpiration and housing.
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

    Last, housing is actually looking at a bubble. Which is a prime recession trigger.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/418...ivated-sellers

    And the budget deficit is already soaring, removing a prime recession fighting tool, if one happens.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-bud...han-last-year/
    First, let me say I don't particularly agree with how Trump has gone about his tariff plans. When you do what he is trying to do, There will not be immediate hard results because to just cave in will be seen as weakness in business negotiations. The Europeans, the Mexicans and Canadians have all now come out and said their goal is no tariffs, which Trump said was his desire. This has gotten everyone to the negotiating table which is far more than they originally stated.

    Today, the Chinese also indicated their willingness to negotiate but those talks will be far tougher but the Chinese economy and markets are really hurting from the tariffs. They have huge costs from all the infrastructure and new cities they are building.

    The dollar is still very strong while the yuan has dropped. China even devalued the yuan a few days ago. It is still not success, but his plan appears to be starting to work. Time will tell.

  19. Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    And the rich get richer, yay, go Murka....

    https://capitalandmain.com/trumps-tr...-windfall-0808

  20. #20

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    First, this is really old news. Second, Subchapter S banks are NOT the Chase, CITI Bank, Morgan-Stanley or even Bank of Oklahoma. Subchapter S Corp banks were created under the Clinton Administration to further the growth of community ownership in banking. These are typically owned by investor qzeegroups, usually from the local area, of less than 100 people. The original S Corp. design is to have a lower tax rate than the normal corporate rate but the recent situation was they had a higher rate. S Corps are designed to have pass through income, just like all the small businesses you and l set up.

    This put community-based ownership at a disadvantage so this tax break renews that ownership advantage. The article is wrong in that it only gives the upper eschalon of the 1% any benefit. Sure, your investors may have some cash sitting around but judging by people I know who have shares in a local S Corp bank, they are just successful professionals and small business owners.

    Unless you WANT bank ownership concentrated in the hands of Wall Street and the publicly traded regionals with less choice be happy the little guys are getting an advantage.

  21. Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    I see the economy growing every day. OKC has had 8 major relocation announcements this year and there are more to come. Why? Companies are doing very well and have now put their expansion plans back on the table. Simply put, things are moving again. The corporate tax cuts in large part are responsible. Another factor is the stock market. Investors have confidence under this administration which started from day one. I have to snicker when I hear people complain about the evil corporate tax cuts. Who are these corporations? They are YOU and ME, anyone who has their future invested in a 401K. I have watched my 401K nearly double since Trump took office. My cpa ran my projected tax numbers for this year and it looks like I will get money back instead of paying the this year. That equals more savings and more spending for me. Companies that are coming in are paying higher wages, Why? Because we have 3.1% unemployment in OKC (due to the economy). If they want quality employees then they have to pay more and they are doing just that. One of our largest manufacturers will soon announce a large facility to be built that was put on hold a couple years ago due to the economy. Companies are confident in the economy and are putting plans forward again which is good for all of us. This is what I see every day.

  22. #22

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    So much of the success, growth and strength of an economy are based simply on consumer sentiment. If people feel good about the future and the economy, then they will spend and the economy will continue to chug along. Every time the stock market drops a decent amount, the mainstream media will feature some talking head saying the rally is dead and the drop is starting. Eventually, the naysayers opinions will start to gain some traction and there will be a downturn. For now though, things are rocking.

  23. #23

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by mugofbeer View Post
    So much of the success, growth and strength of an economy are based simply on consumer sentiment. If people feel good about the future and the economy, then they will spend and the economy will continue to chug along. Every time the stock market drops a decent amount, the mainstream media will feature some talking head saying the rally is dead and the drop is starting. Eventually, the naysayers opinions will start to gain some traction and there will be a downturn. For now though, things are rocking.
    People are quick to blame the customer or investor for being "too negative" when their the reason an economy has been going strong despite bad business fundamentals. There is a huge tech bubble right now. Elon Musk is a good poster child for this bubble.

  24. #24

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Other than national debt, what bad business fundamentals are you referring to?

  25. #25

    Default Re: President Trump on the Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by jn1780 View Post
    People are quick to blame the customer or investor for being "too negative" when their the reason an economy has been going strong despite bad business fundamentals. There is a huge tech bubble right now. Elon Musk is a good poster child for this bubble.
    Having worked in VC for a stretch, I would say that Elon Musk isn't exactly representative of the vast majority of that industry, or any for that matter. How he has swindled (yes I know that is a harsh term) so many into lending/investing so much cash only to have it seemingly vanish into thin air is beyond me.

    I will say, that there is very much an crash in Venture Capital coming our way, not that it would effect many on this board if any. Biggest problem is there is billions being invested, but only millions worth investing in. See the problem?

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Why I am still a Trump supporter..
    By SoonerQueen in forum Politics
    Replies: 332
    Last Post: 11-22-2017, 08:58 AM
  2. Donald Trump
    By Outhunder in forum Politics
    Replies: 205
    Last Post: 10-01-2015, 01:08 PM
  3. Replies: 10
    Last Post: 09-25-2014, 09:50 AM
  4. President Trump
    By bucktalk in forum Politics
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 04-26-2011, 11:30 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO