General Weather Discussion - January and February 2017

[Anonymous.]

Rain is likely Monday morning as a quick band of showers and storms will ride up from the SW.

Weather turns cold on Tuesday. Highs will struggle to make freezing from Wednesday on into to the weekend.

Winter precipitation has been wildly inconsistent with the models. Perhaps a chance Friday.

[OSUPeterson]

So I just saw on the news that okc metro is going to miss out on any snow.

Any chance for a storm in the coming weeks?

[SoonerDave]

I don't think anyone has any idea what's going to happen. Ch 9 is saying the OKC area is likely to get at least a dusting of snow now, and S. OKC could see even more than the northside.

I think I'm going to roll some dice. Call it the RNG forecast (Random Number Generator).

[Anonymous.]

As of this morning. Models are coming in with general amounts between 0-3". With many indications that there will be a very narrow band of the heavier side of things (3"). Both NAM and GFS currently placing that likely band somewhere from Amarillo to about Lawton. Since this system has very little moisture to work with, amounts will be difficult to squeeze out.

Again, not everyone will see measurable snow. We are talking potentially a swath of about 20-40 miles wide of anything ground-covering, if at all. Storm track is everything.

[Bunty]

http://aarontuttleweather.com/2017/0...d-snow-totals/

[TU 'cane]

http://aarontuttleweather.com/2017/0...d-snow-totals/

All I know of Aaron Tuttle is that issue with Red Dirt Report (or whoever) and both parties claiming they were gonna sue one another.
That aside, is his reputation as a meteorologist solid? That page you sent contained enough information and was put to where I could understand it fully.

[Roger S]

All I know of Aaron Tuttle is that issue with Red Dirt Report (or whoever)

The Lost Ogle

[TU 'cane]

^^ Ok, I knew it was one of those. Thanks.

[Anonymous.]

Afternoon models coming in with about the same as this morning. So we are finally getting agreement. Maybe a trend to shift the heavier band further north towards I-40 corridor instead of south of. Will keep track of this.

GFS latching onto heaviest snow along I-40 on Friday morning.

[Anonymous.]

Models trending towards additional moisture this morning. Thus, snow totals could be higher if it holds. Also the trend to move the heavier band further north over I-40 has continued.

Winter Weather Advisory for basically central W and C OK for tonight.

As of this morning here are the model forecast amounts:
GFS: I-40 corridor heaviest band 2-5" (highest amounts out towards Elk City, then tapering off as you head east)
NAM: I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-3"
GEM: I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-2"
WRF: S of I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-2" (Lawton to Norman area)




Like I mentioned earlier, this will be a swath of a heavier snowband that may not exceed 20 miles N to S, so every deviation in track will significantly adjust the totals in your area. The radar tonight will tell the real story.

[OKCRT]

http://aarontuttleweather.com/2017/0...d-snow-totals/

I know many people that follow him like a religion.

Weather Channel shows snow to start in City area around 9:00 this evening through 5:00 tomorrow morning.

[Bunty]

Models trending towards additional moisture this morning. Thus, snow totals could be higher if it holds. Also the trend to move the heavier band further north over I-40 has continued.

Winter Weather Advisory for basically central W and C OK for tonight.

As of this morning here are the model forecast amounts:
GFS: I-40 corridor heaviest band 2-5" (highest amounts out towards Elk City, then tapering off as you head east)
NAM: I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-3"
GEM: I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-2"
WRF: S of I-40 corridor heaviest band 1-2" (Lawton to Norman area)




Like I mentioned earlier, this will be a swath of a heavier snowband that may not exceed 20 miles N to S, so every deviation in track will significantly adjust the totals in your area. The radar tonight will tell the real story.

Canadian model:

[Of Sound Mind]

Canadian model:

What do Canadians know about snow?!? ;-)

[Anonymous.]

High Resolution models are coming in this afternoon with suggestions of a very narrow strip of heavy snow somewhere south of Woodward and trailing off to the SE towards OKC. 5"+ amounts. Sort of like what we have seen today near Dodge City, KS. A narrow strip of heavy snow just parked over the same area.

We could see a narrow corridor of counties upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings if a solid heavy snowband develops over a concentrated area.

[warreng88]

What do Canadians know about snow?!? ;-)

Or modeling...

[OKCRT]

David Payne Ch 9 predicting 1-2 inch in OKC south side getting more than northside. I have seen reports from dusting to 5 inches from other sites.

[Anonymous.]

Newest HRRR is near bread & milk levels for OKC.

[OKCRT]

That looks like it's rolling down I-40 taking aim for OKC

[LocoAko]

Newest HRRR is near bread & milk levels for OKC.

Yep. 6-8" stripe across northern Cleveland County. Would be pretty shocked if that happens, but these bands have been known to do some crazy things.

[bradh]

Damn wish that heavier band was a little further north so my place on the NW side got that much but oh well.

[OKCRT]

Damn wish that heavier band was a little further north so my place on the NW side got that much but oh well.

I think the whole city will be digging out come morning. Looks like a Doozie of a storm headed right for Ok City.

[Anonymous.]

I-40 is going to be a the hotspot.

[Anonymous.]

Watching the band develop now near Amarillo. It may take aim just south of I-40. But models are saying it will lift north and combine with northern development.

[yukong]

Snowing out NW OKC near Piedmont. Streets already covered lightly.

[Anonymous.]

I-40 corridor becoming mostly saturated. Heaviest snows will begin reaching ground in next few hours. Still looking at the heaviest band being I-40 with 2-4", isolated heavier amounts in sustained banding.