General Weather Discussion - December 2016

[Anonymous.]

Final weather month thread for the year!

After the rainy weekend, we will now experience the backside of the storm with cold air filtering down. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower 40s, and Wednesday and Friday will not make it out of the 30s. Thursday may struggle to make freezing.

As for precipitation, we may see some rain/snow showers develop Tuesday evening and expand during the day Wednesday across the state. Moisture looks limited at this time. As for impacts, the event will likely not be significant. However, bridges could become slick due to the extended period of cold temperatures. Best chances at this time, appear to be in NW and N OK for any light accumulations.


Our next storm comes in around the back half of the weekend.

[Anonymous.]

Front is diving south now with the reinforced cold air.

Short range models are developing light snow showers and flurries from Tulsa to OKC this evening.

[Rocky in your Radio]

Never had any moisture here in Piedmont yesterday. About 19F this morning. Looking at the extended models (European, Canadian and JMA) .. I believe after about the 21st, we will at least temporarily, pull out of this chilly streak. I am expecting a mild Christmas this year and of course.. dry. Could be a resurgence of arctic air masses that may graze our area towards the end of the month, but I have my doubts on this currently. The JMA model (From Japan) hints at a mild January with very little precip. I wouldn't be surprised if this at least somewhat verifies but one cannot ignore the current pattern with an abundant snow pack expected by the week leading up to Christmas north of I-70. That alone will prevent those arctic/Canadian air masses from modifying as much as they normally would. This all bares watching. I am more confident overall of a cooler winter than last year, but moderately below normal moisture is a more confident bet. Glad to see the weather thread on here is a viable one.

Edit: Just saw the most recent update of the GFS model. This suggests not only another arctic plunge just before Christmas, but maybe a snow/ice event too! Well now, lets see how this evolves.. keep in mind that most any computer model projecting conditions out this far is only speculation at best.

[SomeGuy]

All I ask for this Christmas is a Snow and Ice free winter

[baralheia]

Personally, I love it when it snows, and I'm really hoping for at least one good snowfall event this year. A white Christmas would be fantastic. Ice, on the other hand... Gorgeous - but no thanks, I'll pass on that.

[Bill Robertson]

All I ask for this Christmas is a Snow and Ice free winter

AMEN brother!!!!!

[Of Sound Mind]

all i ask for this christmas is a snow and ice free winter

ditto!

[Achilleslastand]

All I ask for this Christmas is a Snow and Ice free winter

So you want the drought to worsen......gotcha.

[shadfar]

Personally, I love it when it snows, and I'm really hoping for at least one good snowfall event this year. A white Christmas would be fantastic. Ice, on the other hand... Gorgeous - but no thanks, I'll pass on that.

i couldn't agree more!

[Bill Robertson]

So you want the drought to worsen......gotcha.

It can precipitate all it wants as long as it's above freezing.

[Roger S]

So you want the drought to worsen......gotcha.

Better forms of drought busting precipitation than snow and ice.

[Anonymous.]

Warming up headed through the weekend. We will be hitting highs in the 50s again by Sunday and Monday. Slight chance of rain Sunday, best chances eastern parts of the state. Then more cold air begins filtering back down during the work week. Next system in line will be impacting us around Wednesday and Thursday. Very active pattern to remain in place for a while. We will have to take each storm one-at-a-time.

[Rocky in your Radio]

Both the European and GFS models depicting a more active pattern as what Anonymous eluded to. Chances may be growing for a wetter (icier and snowier?) pattern to develop. Chances for a white Christmas may be growing now. I still believe at some point towards the New Year that we'll gradually get out of this cold pattern; at least temporarily, but as I mentioned in my previous post, with such a snow pack building to our north.. any air masses coming out of Canada and the Arctic will only modify somewhat. For those of you who remember the winter of '83-'84.. this has some ominous similarities, except ocean temperatures throughout the northern hemisphere are averaging a couple of degrees warmer than those years, so I don't see quite the severity of that winter.. but it will be surely colder than the last few winters. This is getting exciting folks!! Stay warm and safe.

[SoonerDave]

Allusions to '83-'84 would be one thing, but I'm looking out for allusions to something more like '77. I was in the 8th grade then and we had the most amazing run of December winter storms I could remember. Wave after wave of huge snowstorms piled close to a *foot* of snow in central OK. For the better part of a week, maybe two, we were showing up at school an hour late and basically waiting an hour or two to get right back on the buses to go home. We ended up having to make up a snow day on a Saturday...

Of course, The Christmas Eve Blizzard of '09 will stand on its own for a long time......(hopefully).

[Pete]

^

I remember the winter of 77/78 because I was a senior in HS and driving to and from school every day and remember the constant scraping of my car and having to navigate through the mess as a 17 year old.

Seem to recall it being bitter cold as well.

[Anonymous.]

I want to wait another day or so before any detailing on the upcoming storm that is setting up to hit around this coming weekend.

Right now it appears there is a good chance of a major winterstorm somewhere across the middle of the US. We are still 5-6 days out, so fine-tuning is just a guess at this point. We need to get into the NAM window before giving credit to some of the GFS doomsday runs.

[SoonerDave]

^

I remember the winter of 77/78 because I was a senior in HS and driving to and from school every day and remember the constant scraping of my car and having to navigate through the mess as a 17 year old.

Seem to recall it being bitter cold as well.

I remember the snowfall and thickness of the blanket to be so pervasive that it actually hurt your eyes just to look across the horizon, even around nearby building, because everything was so incredibly *white*. Even the gray, overcast skies reflected more white/gray white and seemingly intensified the groundcover.

[turnpup]

Good God you guys are scaring me! We're deep into a major exterior paint project that's behind schedule already. Sorry to those who are hoping for the big snow, but I hope it doesn't happen!

[Easy180]

Most sites I looked over this morning have a cold but pretty bland forecast for OKC this weekend.

[LocoAko]

The past few runs of the GFS have been consistent in showing one of our more extreme cold fronts we get every once in a while, with temperatures in the low 70s saturday afternoon and down to ~10F with windchills of -5 to -10 by Sunday morning. Pretty insane drop. Other models suggest the front coming through sooner which wouldn't allow for such a high temperature on Saturday, but either way looks pretty dramatic.

[Anonymous.]

Yes, very powerful system. This is one where the poor Californians have to actually experience bad weather. Could be some flooding over there.

The impacts on OK will be determined by the strength of the high pressure over the eastern side of the US. If the pressure can hold its ground, the storm system will be pushed further south.

At this time, it appears the storm will shove the high pressure aside and just cut right through the country, leaving heavy snow from the plains to the upper MS valley, and heavy storms in the southeast. On the backside of this system, in conjunction with a snowpack in its wake - we will have some extreme temperatures left behind here in OK.

[Bobby821]

Just a heads up.. Keeping a close eye on what may be a developing ice storm for Oklahoma next Tue/Wed. Trending that direction but still early.

[TU 'cane]

Thanks for thr updates everyone. I check here for the serious business.

[Anonymous.]

Friday will be mild with strong winds. Critical fire danger.

Early Saturday morning the front blasts through. Snow develops on the backside of the front. NAM and GFS both agree that it will be broken bands of snow, nothing too organized. Perhaps a moderate to heavy band of snow setting up somewhere, but it will be very localized.

0-1.5" depending on if you are under a snowband or not.


The next system will impact the state on Wednesday/Thursday, precipitation type will depend on temperature recovery from this first storm. After that, temperature recovery may depend on snowpack to the north and how quickly the cold air is shoved back north or not.

[FighttheGoodFight]

I feel like it is early in winter for an ice storm. I'll keep my eyes here for next week,