General Weather Discussion - December 2016

[Rocky in your Radio]

Temp. is 21F and dropping here in Piedmont as of 12:26pm. I have a question. How can you post images on this board? I was wanting to post the image from the mesonet yesterday but could only provide the link. I'm not very tech savvy, but know just enough to be dangerous when it comes to my Mac..

[Rocky in your Radio]

This is a test to see if this works. Current conditions as of 12:15pm

[Anonymous.]

You can't post still images from mesonet without saving them to a third party site somewhere. But you can link directly to the image that they are hosting, but it will update live.

[yukong]

Light snow in far NW OKC.

[BoulderSooner]

Blowing snow down town

[Bunty]

For other states, change the two letter all cap state name in this URL: http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/OK_state_Snow.png

[shavethewhales]

So it looks like there is a decent chance of a white christmas this year according the current forecast... but it looks like we'll have to see exactly where the temperature lands.

[Anonymous.]

Current GFS forecast for Christmas Day. This has been astonishingly consistent, btw.

[OKCisOK4me]

Current GFS forecast for Christmas Day. This has been astonishingly consistent, btw.

Ummmm, I'm all for that if it's nothing but fluffy!

[Anonymous.]

Last few GFS runs since the doomsday update have all moved the storm substantially north - giving OK a rainy Christmas.

[SoonerDave]

Last few GFS runs since the doomsday update have all moved the storm substantially north - giving OK a rainy Christmas.

Anon, is it just my recency bias showing or does the GFS generally tend to be a bit too aggressive in predicting winter precip for our part of the country? My perception is that the more distant the forecast, the more likely a broader prediction of heavier winter precip seems to be, but very often as the runs get closer, the predictions seem to dampen out quite a bit.

[Anonymous.]

For sure is the case, the GFS is notoriously doomsday-ish even in the warm seasons when you look past 6-7 days.

We will have a better idea on this next storm by Wednesday, once we get inside this window. Also it helps to get to that point so we can start looking toward the NAM for guidance.

2 days ago GFS was putting a blizzard across OK on Christmas day. Now it is putting a blizzard in ND and SD. Then a potential event on the 27th or later here in OK. It is just chucking stuff around, chances are one of these things will happen, but to legitimize a forecast on any of them at this point would be insanity. You may ask "then why does the GFS go out so far if it is garbage?" IMO, I think it is a good (sometimes great) indicator on when a storm will be generally impacting a certain area around a certain time. Now that may sound broad and unusable, but it is very key to how the atmosphere will be setup for timings of cold air and upper level low systems.

That being said, I would not be surprised to see some type of 'bread and milk' weather in the next 12 day window.

[Of Sound Mind]

That being said, I would not be surprised to see some type of 'bread and milk' weather in the next 12 day window.

... dusting off the signature video for such a time as this...

[TU 'cane]

Current local forecast for Tulsa has us in the 50s all week and then reaching 63 on Sunday with some showers.

Wow. What a drastic change. Oklahoma doesn't want Winter to stay.

[Anonymous.]

Yea the models the last week have been saying another shot of arctic air is going to come down and wreak havoc. Now they have basically bailed on that completely. It looks like it could be a mild and rainy Christmas for much of the country this year.

GFS indicates another attempt at cold air coming down after Christmas, but we shall wait and see if it is another fake.

[shavethewhales]

Man, I jinxed it. From a foot of snow to 66 degrees and a thunderstorm for Christmas. At least things will thaw out I guess...

[Of Sound Mind]

My nostalgia for a white Christmas ended with the Christmas blizzard of 2009 which completely wrecked family plans for the holiday gatherings.

[FighttheGoodFight]

My nostalgia for a white Christmas ended with the Christmas blizzard of 2009 which completely wrecked family plans for the holiday gatherings.

I agree. Everyone wants a white Christmas but I travel all over the state that day. I am fine with 60 degrees. I get my new smoker on Christmas so I want some nice weather to smoke some meat!

[turnpup]

/begin rant/

I WANT OUR PAINTERS TO BE ABLE TO BE FINISHED!!!

/end rant/

Ahem, sorry. Christmas with bare wood, scaffolding and dust coming in through the cracks is starting to take a toll on me!

[Anonymous.]

Thursday morning may be slipping in here as another freezing drizzle event. Will watch.

[SoonerDave]

And with the Christmas snow notion gone....now we're actually talking about severe weather on Christmas Day. Good. Grief
EDIT: SPC has a 15% severe risk for Sun/Mon on their outlook this morning.

[Bill Robertson]

And with the Christmas snow notion gone....now we're actually talking about severe weather on Christmas Day. Good. Grief
EDIT: SPC has a 15% severe risk for Sun/Mon on their outlook this morning.

Definitely not normal. And GFS is showing Thursday morning and the 30th and 31st as the only days in the runs as having lows near freezing. Also not normal. I like it but not normal.

[Anonymous.]

GFS showing potential to get into the upper 60s Christmas Day before a line of storms moves across the state.

[Anonymous.]

The storms are now entering W OK. They are strong, but brief. They should be hitting OKC early afternoon.

Enjoy the warm christmas and don't bother making your hair nice. The wind is insane. Extreme fire danger state-wide.

[shavethewhales]

I don't know if I should jinx it again or not, but it looks like January 5th is ripe for a proper snow storm at this point.

I'm less of a fan of winter weather now that I'm a home owner and have a long commute, but it would be fun to see some white stuff again. In Tulsa last year we only got one or two brief 1" snow coverings that melted off that day.