General Weather Discussion - December, 2015

[Anonymous.]

Two severe warned storms moving into OKC over the lunch hour, these will keep developing and lifting north throughout most of the afternoon. Once the low really starts cranking and sliding east, we will see the 32F line sag to the SE, this will be when the very difficult winter forecast begins.


Latest GFS and NAM both tracking low slightly further south and east on this afternoon's run. OKC is literally going to be on the edge of doomsday or cold rain and 34F. It may even split the NW/SE sides.

NAM is hinting at a dryslot for much of C OK during the bulk of icing, so C OK could be spared, or it could play out the exact opposite and we could get over half an inch of ice.

Winds will pick up substantially as the snow moves in late overnight Sunday evening. Any icing that occurred will have snow on top of it and strong winds. Power outages and any remaining "hanging" tree limbs from the Thanksgiving storm will likely give way.

[NikonNurse]

This is true. Well it's looking like just rain from this storm so no blizzard warnings will be issued. The forecast changes every time I look at it. Latest forecast shows less than 1 inch of snow.

And YOU are who????

[Achilleslastand]

At least here on the north side we got a very good amount of rain just in a few hours. Just think if we were closer to our average temps/or a bit lower this would have been a massive winter storm. Still hoping we get some white stuff before its all said and done though.

[Achilleslastand]

And YOU are who????

[NikonNurse]

Any new updates? It seems that the main winter part of the storm is still hours out....but since it's closer, any speculation on dry slot vs snow vs ice and amounts?

[Anonymous.]

Here is the cold air spilling in:

[okatty]

29 degrees in Guymon.....77 in Idabel.

[Anonymous.]

Sidenote, OKC is about to break the all-time record for rainfall in a year.

[stratosphere]

Sidenote, OKC is about to break the all-time record for rainfall in a year.

Lovely. Sure do miss the weather we had up until yesterday. Not a fan of the monsoon or whatever we have coming next.

[okatty]

^Same here!!! Have done more outdoor activities this December than I can ever remember! However those appear to be over for 2015.

[stratosphere]

^Same here!!! Have done more outdoor activities this December than I can ever remember! However those appear to be over for 2015.

Yeah i have gone for a walk around the neighborhood nearly every day this week, also washed the cars, worked in the yard, and went to the zoo. I already have cabin fever and it hasn't even been a full day yet.

[Anonymous.]

Ice Storm Warning for all of Western OK (Including Canadian County).

Winter Storm Warning for C OK (Including Oklahoma County).

[OKCRT]

And YOU are who????

Haha- The weather channel

[Anonymous.]

Will post a full update later tonight. But the new NAM loading in is bad news for C OK. It takes the track further south and east. Could see Ice Storm Warnings pushed into OKC by morning.

[Paseofreak]

Hey Global Warming, can I ask you just a tiny little favor?

[Anonymous.]

Okay we have the latest GFS and NAM both loaded in. Both models moved the low's track slightly further south and east. This pulls the freezing line with it tonight into tomorrow. Both models indicate that around mid afternoon Sunday, there will be a dry slot and temperatures could warm above freezing in C OK. We will have to see if this actually happens, a dryslot may not develop, and we could have constant precip which will keep temperatures near the wet-bulb.

As the low really deepens and ejects out into the middle of TX, that is when the full cold air column pushes back east and we have a period of heavy snow with wrap-around. If the low can stay closed off and limit dry air penetration, the totals could be very significant, even in OKC. It will be a nowcast scenario and of course the temperatures will be everything.

Right now I would lean with the models and say the track could be further south and east, even by morning. I will keep an eye on it, as this could produce a significant icing scenario for OKC with a slight shift in 2-3 degrees.

Keep in mind, the icing will be nearly identical to the Thanksgiving storm, elevated surfaces, trees, powerlines. Roads should remain good until the sleet and snow really start getting going heading into Sunday night.

[Achilleslastand]

Did Morgan just say the metro was getting 4-8 inches of snow?

[OKCMallen]

Okay we have the latest GFS and NAM both loaded in. Both models moved the low's track slightly further south and east. This pulls the freezing line with it tonight into tomorrow. Both models indicate that around mid afternoon Sunday, there will be a dry slot and temperatures could warm above freezing in C OK. We will have to see if this actually happens, a dryslot may not develop, and we could have constant precip which will keep temperatures near the wet-bulb.

As the low really deepens and ejects out into the middle of TX, that is when the full cold air column pushes back east and we have a period of heavy snow with wrap-around. If the low can stay closed off and limit dry air penetration, the totals could be very significant, even in OKC. It will be a nowcast scenario and of course the temperatures will be everything.

Right now I would lean with the models and say the track could be further south and east, even by morning. I will keep an eye on it, as this could produce a significant icing scenario for OKC with a slight shift in 2-3 degrees.

Keep in mind, the icing will be nearly identical to the Thanksgiving storm, elevated surfaces, trees, powerlines. Roads should remain good until the sleet and snow really start getting going heading into Sunday night.

Good stuff. Thanks.

[Anonymous.]

Did Morgan just say the metro was getting 4-8 inches of snow?

Both models are suggesting at least the northwest sides could get that much (or more).

[Anonymous.]

I want to make note of our usual winter storm discussion. Local areas will get very high totals of snow depending on banding. Also the parameters look favorable for thundersnow as the low passes directly overhead. This could be 2" per hour rates over a small area. Early indications is that convective snow is most likely to occur in a corridor from about Lawton to just northwest of OKC.

[riverrat077]

There might me some wind damage in the state tonight. OK mesonet: Mangum 76 mph gust, medicine park 67mph, minco around 60mph.

[Anonymous.]

This morning's NAM is in. It is about 2:30am while writing this. Freezing line is approaching OK county line right now. Will likely be approaching I-35 by 4am.

Latest NAM trends further south and east again. This time showing a closed-off low with minimal dryslot. Could be some very heavy freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Looks like it will be convective, so thunder will not be uncommon.

Roads will likely be fine for most of the day, until nightfall when the heavy sleet to snow moves in.


Will come back with updates in the morning with new GFS and noon hour NAM.

[Pete]

Getting some sleet now in downtown OKC.

[corwin1968]

Getting some sleet now in downtown OKC.

Sleet is accumulating in the grass up here in far NW OKC.

[Pete]

Yeah, it's now all sleet here and it's coming down hard.

Starting to pile up and get very icy.