General Weather Discussion - December, 2015

[kelroy55]

I can't believe it's going to be 70 most of the week here. Strong chance of rain on Saturday with the possibility of storms.

[Anonymous.]

Okay the latest on this weekend:

GFS has been refreshingly consistent the last 4-6 runs. Rain and storms in eastern half of OK, blizzard in extreme NW OK and into the OK/TX Panhandles. These solutions dryslot most of SW and C OK.

Still 5 days out and it will change some, but it seems the GFS is locking in on this one. We will be in NAM window soon, and it will be interesting to see that forecast. We have seen last minute shifts in the past, so don't let guard down.

[Bobby821]

https://twitter.com/okmesonet/status/679291864575422464

[Anonymous.]

This is going to come down to the wire, I don't know if I would buy a forecast until Saturday morning at this point.

New GFS tracks low further south and east. Thus, slamming western half of OK.

[Bobby821]

This is going to come down to the wire, I don't know if I would buy a forecast until Saturday morning at this point.

New GFS tracks low further south and east. Thus, slamming western half of OK.

I hope we get snow in the metro, I have been hyping this storm to my kids for a few days now and I would hate to let them down with the dry slot and nothing but brown grass to look at

[Anonymous.]

The possibility is definitely there for OKC to have heavy snowfall.

The low's track determines everything here. 20-30 miles will be dramatic shifts in snowfall/rain lines.

[Bobby821]

The possibility is definitely there for OKC to have heavy snowfall.

The low's track determines everything here. 20-30 miles will be dramatic shifts in snowfall/rain lines.

I am pulling for the low to track southerly and more easterly

[Bill Robertson]

I am pulling for the low to track southerly and more easterly

I guess we'll be like OU vs OSU fans. I'm pulling for north and west.

[Of Sound Mind]

I'm pulling for the dry slot.

[okatty]

^ Agree. Flirting with 70 today on the first full day of winter! Gotta love that!

Over 2600 daily record temps tied or broken across the US during first 20 days of December.

[NikonNurse]

If you don't like what a person posts, you can just put them on ignore and not worry about it. Being a bully isn't the correct way to handle things.

[Celebrator]

I'm just pulling for no ice.

[Dustin]

Is this a typo?



Thats crazy.

[OKCisOK4me]

Bobby, take your kids to Guymon for the weekend (or longer).

[Bunty]

Is this a typo?



Thats crazy.

It's only OKC TV stations sensationalizing the upcoming weather again to attract viewers.

[John1744]

Yep David Payne was spinning up the hype machine tonight.

I did not order enough groceries for my store this weekend.

Worst possible timing, most suppliers won't deliver on thursday or friday so a lot of grocery stores got their groceries tonight and tomorrow morning thus won't get another delivery until Sunday after they order Saturday. If it comes in bad, stores might be really bare.

[5alive]

[Anonymous.]

Tonight's GFS run:

[BrettM2]

Tonight's GFS run:

I know it's still a ways out, but do the models give an idea of when this will kick off? We're supposed to drive back from Dallas sometime Sunday.

[Anonymous.]

Right now, rain starts Friday night into Saturday. Ice/sleet by late Saturday night. Transition to snow by Sunday afternoon and heavy snow most of the night Sunday night.

This is current GFS run (for general central OK), this will change, but you asked for it.


EDIT: Also one thing not to be overlooked, is if the snow scenario plays out, it will likely be blizzard conditions as winds will be strong with this storm.

[Anonymous.]

GFS this morning is pure doomsday for OKC.

Almost pure ice and eventual sleet from Saturday night into Sunday early evening - then transition to very heavy snow overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

.5 to 1" of ice estimated followed up by about a foot of snow.

With winds estimated to be gusting at 20-30 mph, this would be apocalyptic. Surely it will change from now, but the current picture is very ugly.

[Robert_M]

Interesting that latest shows the bulls eye for central Oklahoma. KFOR this morning still is saying western Oklahoma. I personally have the weekend to sit at home and watch it fall so I wouldn't mind a little / lot of snow

[SoonerDave]

GFS this morning is pure doomsday for OKC.

Almost pure ice and eventual sleet from Saturday night into Sunday early evening - then transition to very heavy snow overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

.5 to 1" of ice estimated followed up by about a foot of snow.

With winds estimated to be gusting at 20-30 mph, this would be apocalyptic. Surely it will change from now, but the current picture is very ugly.

Looks like GFS is starting this up late afternoon/evening of the 26th if I'm reading it right. In some respects, that's worse than a Christmas Day event in that some people will be driving/traveling *back* from Christmas Day events/activities. We're supposed to go to my wife's family Christmas that evening, so here's hoping maybe this forecast gets pushed back a few hours...

[PhiAlpha]

Best weather map I've seen from this weekend complements of the Mesonet:

[baralheia]

Yeah... assuming I'm interpreting this correctly, that's what I'm seeing too - GFS predicts this weather event starting somewhere roughly around 7pm on Saturday the 26th and continuing through midday Monday the 28th.