General Weather Discussion - December 2014

[venture]

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[hr][/hr]Winter Precipitation Model Forecasts
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NAM 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 84HR	NAM 06Z/18Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 84HR	RUC T+1.5HR Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 18HR

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WRF 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 48HR	GFS 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 144HR	GFS 06Z/18Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 120HR

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[LakeEffect]

The NWS is hinting at an unsettled pattern in the 7-day... any info on what they mean?

[venture]

Could see a big time system in about a week enter the plains. More tonight...

[Plutonic Panda]

White Christmas?

[Bobby821]

Yeah whats it looking like Snow? Rain ? Ice? hopefully something fun !! weather has been a bit boring lately.

[ljbab728]

Yeah whats it looking like Snow? Rain ? Ice? hopefully something fun !! weather has been a bit boring lately.

I like boring.

[Anonymous.]

Storm systems lining up for the next few weeks. We will take them one at a time.

First one looks to come late this weekend, looks like rain at the moment.

[Anonymous.]

Just for fun. This WILL change.

Dec. 15-16 storm (rain).

Dec. 18-19 storm (rain/snow).

Dec. 22 storm (snow).

Dec. 25-26 storm (snow).

[Plutonic Panda]

Just for fun. This WILL change.

Dec. 15-16 storm (rain).

Dec. 18-19 storm (rain/snow).

Dec. 22 storm (snow).

Dec. 25-26 storm (snow).

I'm holding you to that. If that doesn't play out exactly like you said, I will be very mad!!

[Plutonic Panda]

I like boring.

I like my weather right at where it is appropriate to scream "not sure if we're gonna make it though this one!!" and/or where you are driving and not sure if you're going to make it home. Keeps things interesting and leaves you with questions, and I like questions. According to JTF, so do cougars.

[venture]

Couple systems coming up for Oklahoma over the next 10 days.

System One
Portion of the strong West Coast storm will move south through the Four Corners region and into the Southern Plains. Low will reform over the Panhandles and come through on Sunday. Storm will deepen over Oklahoma and push east through the day on Sunday the 14th. Heavy rain possible with this one with some getting over an inch of rain. If it was mid April and this was coming through, we would be talking about a lot more, but overall just rain. Doesn't really look like a severe setup at this point at all. Temps in the low to mid 60s ahead of it, but they will fall behind it with some frost on Tuesday morning.

System Two
Our next storm system will have two components. Moisture will come in from the south through Texas and then a batch of energy moving out of the Southwest. Scattered rain will kick on Thursday the 18th over much of the state, some heavier precip south. GFS might be going crazy here, but we'll play through with it to get it out there, but precip will increase substantially by Friday morning - the 19th. Some areas could see over 3 inches of rain, especially SE OK. Storm will continue to organize over Central TX and fling heavy rain over us through Friday. It will start to pull NE and move into Central Arkansas by Saturday morning. A dry slot will develop over Northern Texas that might enter Southern Oklahoma at this time, however a good area of wrap around moisture is possible over much of the state. A possible heavier band of precip from NC OK back through much of western OK. By Saturday Afternoon (20th) this will push off to the east very quickly and things will shut down.

Now system two is interesting because precip type becomes a major player. Friday morning, much of the state will be between 35-40 degrees with the exception being the Red River Valley in the low 40s. Here in Central OK temperature profile will have us all rain at this point, but we will only be maybe 3 degrees above freezing from about 6000 ft and down to the surface. Change over appears quite possible by Friday evening. When I say we are going to be riding the line, we will literally be right there. From about 7500 ft down through about 2000 ft above the surface, we'll be right at freezing. Above 7500 ft well below freezing and below 2000 ft we'll be just above freezing. This could be a pretty good setup for a heavy, wet snow or at least a rain/snow mix. So for this period it could be very concerning if we get colder air in here than forecast, if the precip amounts verify, because this could result in well over a half foot of snow.

By Saturday morning, much of West Central to Northwest OK will be below freezing at the surface. Then from around Wichita Falls to Pauls Valley to Stroud and up I-44 temps will be at around 35 degrees on that line - colder NW of it. At this point upper air has all snow for Central Oklahoma and back to the west. Amounts are going to vary a lot because of a wet and warm ground. So any amounts I talk about will need to have that modifier with them. Now if everything sticks through Saturday morning, we could see 1-3" along and southeast of I-44 until temps get too warm. NW of that line 3-6" inches possible, with the heaviest band possible from Altus to Clinton/Weatherford-Enid-Ponca City. Like we saw a few weeks ago, where the main snow band sets up is tough to call and it could easily shift from the locations mentioned. Honestly...this whole forecast will probably be dead in 6 hours with the next model run, but it doesn't hurt to get it out there on what may be coming.

So bottom line for Oklahoma City and the Metro area. This weekend, just rain. Following storm high potential for a mixed bag of fun. "Worst" case scenario right now could see us with almost 2 inches of rain and over 4" of snow. I put worst in quotes because moisture is never a bad thing around here, it just might make things a bit sloppy. We'll have to watch this and see if models keep trending with this storm. If it does, we'll start talking about grabbing a glass of milk to enjoy with our bread.

[bradh]

what's the outlook for Kansas late next week? was going to head to Topeka for a work trip 18th and 19th

[venture]

what's the outlook for Kansas late next week? was going to head to Topeka for a work trip 18th and 19th

Things are still bouncing around a lot on the placement of the storm for next week. 06Z jumped it north, 12Z way south...stay tuned.

[bradh]

Things are still bouncing around a lot on the placement of the storm for next week. 06Z jumped it north, 12Z way south...stay tuned.

pretty typical when i try to plan winter trips up there, one time i went up there for a pre-construction meeting in Olathe and ended up there two extra nights

[Anonymous.]

Just some simple updates with afternoon model runs.

This weekend is pretty much sure bet on Sunday into Monday rain and storms.

Next week looks fine until about the 18th, when things start getting questionable. Looks to start rain, but possible end snow. Or perhaps be all snow. GFS takes track of the low directly through OK to provide heavy precip. regardless of type. Right now this storm looks like classic battle of temperatures across the state.

Christmas week is still in long-range, but storm potential around the holiday is still present.

[ljbab728]

This had to be astounding to see in person.

[Plutonic Panda]

This had to be astounding to see in person.

You posted that before I did.

[ljbab728]

You posted that before I did.

Since you haven't posted it, I do believe you're correct, plupan.

[venture]

Marginal Risk for severe storms on Sunday...including the outside chance of a tornado and some small hail.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014


VALID 141200Z - 151200Z


...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...


...SUMMARY...
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OF
THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.


...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SPLIT BELT OF
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC REMAIN AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY SIMILAR AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODELS...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD PERSISTS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT OF EACH MODEL. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...OVER INTERIOR NORTH
AMERICA...IS AMPLIFICATION FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA...AND ITS POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE ON A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVANCING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY.


THIS LATTER FEATURE LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK /ON THE ORDER OF 70-80 KT AT 500 MB/...BUT
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING STILL APPEARS PROBABLE AS IT SPREADS ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...IT DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW CENTER
COULD APPROACH 1000 MB OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FILLING AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.


PRECEDING THE UPPER IMPULSE...A 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET
PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT /PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ AS FAR
NORTH AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
AND DESTABILIZATION REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWER PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EMANATING FROM LINGERING COLD SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE UNCERTAINTIES EVIDENT IN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE THE OUTLOOK OF A MORE PRECISE AND HIGHER
CATEGORICAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER...A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON SUNDAY.


CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MID/UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ARCING BAND OF STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY...LIKELY WITHIN A CONFLUENCE
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE BASED
ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT BEGINS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR. ACTIVITY COULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING...AND AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO...BEFORE INFLOW OF DRIER/ MORE STABLE AIR
CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING OF CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER
EAST.


IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
AND INSOLATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
FURTHER...JUST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE. THIS SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...WHICH...AT
THE PRESENT TIME...SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS DURING THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO
SUPERCELLS...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH WANING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

[venture]

Marginal risk still for tomorrow. Main risk are some isolated severe wind gusts and a quick spin up tornado.

[educator1953]

Thanks, Venture. I've been checking here periodically for your updates. I appreciate all you do.

It's nice here in Duncan. It almost reminds me of spring. I even got outside and did some gardening.

[tfvc.org]

I don't think I have ever seen it this foggy for this long. I usually see some fog in the mornings but it isn't very often and doesn't last. Several days of almost endless fog just seems odd for Oklahoma.

[venture]

This weather is very Great Lakes-ish type weather that they have around October. Very strange for us here.

[Anonymous.]

The 18th-19th storm looks like it will most likely be winter precip. However, models are also speeding up the timing and thus amounts and the track are not favorable for heavy snow.

[Bobby821]

The 18th-19th storm looks like it will most likely be winter precip. However, models are also speeding up the timing and thus amounts and the track are not favorable for heavy snow.

Dam :-(