I am sad we will not break the precipitation record.
Looks like New Years storm dead and we are looking around Jan 6ish.
I am sad we will not break the precipitation record.
Looks like New Years storm dead and we are looking around Jan 6ish.
New Years storm trying to backtrack back to the northwest. Models will have better handle once this cold front comes through this weekend.
GFS has us snow free through the first 10ish days in January. However, it is building a lot of cold air in Western Canada that might flood down by mid-January.
Not without moisture. Still way to far out to see if we'll have any moisture in here. There are 3 chances of precip coming up where there should be moisture in the state, but most of it will be Eastern OK. Still some very light precip around here or extremely slight chance...
Jan 7th - Light Rain
Jan 10th - Light Snow/Sleet
Jan 12th - Light Rain
When I say extremely slight...max precip amounts are around 0.03 to 0.05" of liquid...and most, again, is well east of I-35. We'll see what happens.
I am already shuddering at what I'm seeing in terms of record-breaking cold in mid-late January. Have I mentioned I hate cold weather?
Too early to talk snow chances with this, though we might see a few inches with the system and cold air moving in - in the middle of January. The big headline will be this...
Remember to go outside today at 6:12pm and look NW to see the ISS.
Could have some freezing drizzle around tomorrow morning. Nothing major.
Overall...the "quietest" year with tornadoes nationally since before 1953. Law of averages...it'll probably be a busy year next year if we look at the trends since 2004.
Oklahoma was above average this year with 72 tornado and our average is just over 55.
Tropical systems and US landfall also is a huge contributer to total tornado counts in the USA. And it is no secret that this year, the tropics were relatively quiet, yet again.
On to OK. Chances of passing snow showers looks to be slightly on the rise for Thursday into Friday, right now it looks like N/NE OK has the best shot, but some white stuff is worth monitoring.
12Z Euro bringing in snow chances north of a line from Woodward - Fairview - Perry - Bartlesville. General 1-2 inches. 12Z GFS covers the north 2 rows of counties from TX to AR with generally 1" or less. Maybe 1-2" when you get into far NE OK near the KS and MO borders.
Yet the 2013 season, for the OKC metro, was the worst in history. When you combine the casualties of the May 20th storm and the May 31st storm I believe it was greater than May 3, 1999. The property damage this year blew 1999 out of the park.
Hopefully 2014 is a bit quieter for the metro.
It was a significant year here, definitely. If you are worried about just human casualties then yes when you combine them they are obviously going to top May 3rd. However, injuries where much higher in May 3rd than the two events combined as far as I know. Really...we should be saying 3 events. May 19th had an EF-4 tornado that started in Norman and moved into Pott County. They are still part of the metro area the last I checked.
What will next year bring? Hard to say. Will we have a tornado in the metro area in 2014? More than likely yes. Statistically the OKC metro area sees 8 per year.
F3/EF3 = 31
F4/EF4 = 15
F5/EF5 = 5
Those numbers include this year (1 EF3, 1 EF4, and 2 EF5s)...so that is 51 strong/violent tornadoes over the last 63 years. Roughly less than one per year on average...but close enough statistically to assume at least 1. I would argue as the metro area's population continues to sprawl out and develop, the number of higher rated tornadoes will go up simply because there is more stuff to chew up.
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